Fool-on-Stoopid
Footballguy
12 team PPR IDP
Offered Hooper for 2.8 to the owner of H Henry/Brate and got a polite No and a smiley
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Offered Hooper for 2.8 to the owner of H Henry/Brate and got a polite No and a smiley
dipandglide
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Agree 100%.
I don’t get the love for Jimmy G in start 1 leagues. (A late 1st is crazy to me, and I’m in no rush I to move a 2nd for him.) I like the talent as well, but as you point out, that doesn’t always translate to a fantasy difference maker. He could go on to be one of the best QBs in the league and still be a Ben/Stafford/Rivers level fantasy producer - and even that is far from a given.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Does Decker carry any value now?
Dan Hindery
Moderator
You could get either of those guys extremely cheap. I'd guess a 3rd round for Bridgewater and a 4th for Brissett. I'm currently doing a Superflex startup and neither has been drafted through 16 rounds. Not expecting either to be drafted any time real soon either.
I personally don't like the chances of either earning a starting job next year. Very few teams need a starting QB right now and you'll probably also have guys like Sam Bradford, Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, and Nick Foles on the FA market.
This is very true and something I rarely see mentioned. The narrative still seems to be that QBs are in short supply. However, the NFL has been flooded with good QBs in the draft in recent year and there just aren't many spots for fringe starter types. Even with guys like Tyrod and Foles who we tend to assume will find a starting job somewhere - it's difficult to see where those opportunities would be.
Dan Hindery
Moderator
Yeah, it's looking like 3 straight good QB classes with Wentz, Dak, Goff, Watson, Trubisky, Mahomes and the 5 first rounders this year who should get their shot soon.
Plus, and I mentioned this in my last article, the aging curve (or whatever you want to call it) is really changing at the position. Guys like Brees and Brady are showing you can still be elite at ~40 years old and all the 34-36 year old QBs (Roethlisberger, Rivers, Rodgers, etc.) are showing zero signs of slowing down and it's not crazy to think those guys might go until they are 39+ as well. When guys are locking down starting QB jobs for almost 20 straight years, there are naturally way fewer starting jobs open.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
How do much do you upgrade players with good training camp reports? For instance, is Anthony Miller worth more than Sutton or Royce now?
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Dan Hindery
Moderator
I think you absolutely take training camp stuff into account. Especially when the reporting is universally positive and backed up by actions. With Miller, everyone who has seen him has raved. He also has already locked down a starting job and was deemed too important to risk playing in the first preseason game.cloppbeast said:
It's logical to bump up guys like that over the guys in the same general tier who haven't been generating a ton of buzz (Christian Kirk as one example).
I wouldn't bump Miller over Royce yet just due to the relative scarcity of RBs vs. WRs, though I think it's a reasonable question. And Sutton is getting almost as much positive press as Miller, so those two are a coin flip for me. I'd love either of those guys in the late 1st round if there are still rookie drafts going down. Miller and Sutton should be harder and more costly to trade for than they were a few weeks ago because we now have more information to go on.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
This time of year, well it's funny. Almost every player gets positive news from the beat guys. A lot of time it serves as confirmation bias. I find myself searching the players I like or have on my team, searching for information to back me up. Maybe the useful takes come from few negative ones. For instance, Reece Fountain, it is claimed, hasn't gotten much separation in practice, while Cain has dominated. But perhaps Fountain doesn't need separation but can use his size and position to make receptions from well placed passes.
I can't make sense of it sometimes. I mean, could any of us have predicted Michael Thomas from the training camp reporting?
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NeverEnough
Footballguy
Not a Cooper believer so I would not take that.Shrek said:
Shrek
Having a great season
And I get that everyone has different values on players. But I've done this for a very long time, and I can't remember the last time that a rookie in dynasty was valued like Barkley seems to be this year, at least in terms of what people are willing to trade to get him. It's gotten crazy lately.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Reggie Bush back in the day had insane value. Elliott was bringing in hauls as well.
Agree none of them were valued quite as high as Barkley though. Barkley is just so clean and versatile it makes sense he's valued so highly, at least to me.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I only see one person in that group with a great chance at being elite for 15+ years, and he's coming off tearing 2 ligaments in his knee.
Seems like a bad sample size. Two of the best 10 QB of all time are about 40 right now. This is not an indication of future 40 year olds.
There's quite a few former QB, who looked like they would continue to be elite at 37 but didn't. John Elway, Kurt Warner, Steve Young, Rich Gannon. I would argue Roeth and Rodgers have shown signs of slowing down, particularly injury accumulation Brady and Brees largely avoided.
The teams I view as having a low likelihood of drafting a QB in the 1st in the next 5 years are PHI, SEA, DET. Just missing that criteria would be ATL, TEN, HOU. Everyone else is wide open. Death, taxes.
kutta
Footballguy
I agree. I own him and I would jump at some of these offers. I think the success of Zeke and all the rookies last year have everyone thinking that if those guys can do that, Barkley is going to smash all the records.
I sure hope he does, but Cooper, Dalvin, and 1.07? Sign me up for that all day. And I’m not even a big Cooper fan.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Dan Hindery
Moderator
Where'd I say those QBs would be elite for 15+ years? That's a strawman argument.
The discussion was about open QB jobs in the 2019 season and whether there would be starting opportunities out there for guys like Brissett and Bridgewater.
I think all (or at least 10) of those young QBs listed will keep their teams out of the market for a starting QB next offseason.
The point about the older QBs was again mostly about next offseason. I'm not expecting teams like SD, Pitt, etc. to be in the market for a starter even though their QBs are getting up there in years.
These guys are hanging on to starting jobs longer and playing at a higher level than at any time in history. Don't know how that is disputable when looking at the numbers.
Apple Juice
Footballguy
I remember you were leading the charge in making the case that Thomas was a stud in the making. I took MT at 5 ahead of Coleman because of that thread, worked out pretty well.
Serious players do a lot of reading and research before making significant trades. Trading away SB would count as such. When the perception that SB is worth 4 firsts or an elite RB plus an elite WR and is repeated over and over- most owners are going to hold out for that type of bonanza, thus, even overpay proposals might be rejected. Nobody wants to sell the next superstar RB for anything less than 1.25 on the dollar.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
True. Both are garbage players so I'm not too interested in the original discussion. I am more interested in your discussion of the aging curve because clearly there have been many QB in the history of the NFL who played well into their late 30s. This relates to a dynasty value discussion if we look at guys like Dak and Goff (who I would view as mediocre/competent starters and little more) and assume QBs are gonna play forever now. Great QB who avoid serious injury accumulation play forever - I feel this is an axiom of football and has been true forever. If your statement "When guys are locking down starting QB jobs for almost 20 straight years" applied to only those 3 franchises (SD, GB, PIT) then sure, in this limited question, there are less opportunities for the current 35th and 36th best QBs in the world over the next 12 to 15 months.
My strategy for QB in dynasty is to treat it like a big cap asset - buy the big name, hold forever, buoy your lineup with solid production. Your statements, if taken more broadly, seemed like flies in the ointment to that. Look at all these young starters, QBs can play forever now, and there will be few opportunities for stopgaps. Nope. Some of these guys are tomorrow's stopgaps. There's only one QB in the recent classes who qualifies for me as a big cap asset. The rest are just passing through the league until proven otherwise.
The question is really if this is trend, which I took from your original statement, or just a factor of the careers of 5 current players. Can easily point to older QB in the last year (+/-) who are not playing at a high level and/or have finished falling apart like Eli, Romo, Palmer, Cutler. We don't know what is coming up for these players. A handful of QB coming off good seasons at 34+ is not enough data to be statistically meaningful. This is what I meant by "seems like a bad sample size." We have 5 great QB over 34 playing now. We don't have a lot of great QB between 25 and 34 playing now. What happens after Rodgers retires and we have no great QB over 35. Russ will be the elder statesman at 34/35. (Maybe Ryan or Smith will still be around.) We gonna say QB can't keep playing past 35 just cause there aren't any? There will be a lot of evidence due to, potentially, both of the other QB in his class not living up to their potential. It will be the opposite short-sighted hypothesis.
Tau837
Footballguy
The 5 current players are Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, and Rodgers. That is a sample set of HOF caliber QBs. Of recently retired HOF caliber QBs, Favre, Warner, and Peyton also played well into their late 30s.
Of your counterpoints, only Eli is potentially HOF caliber, and his case is shaky and based on two postseasons moreso than on his general level of QB play. So your counterpoints are generally lesser QBs.
However, I agree that just because the HOF caliber QBs seem to be trending to playing at a high level to a more advanced age does not mean that most/all QBs will do so.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Romo is close. He would be if he had kept playing. Similar resume to Rivers. Still might TBH due to popularity as broadcaster raising his reputation.
Palmer is an interesting case. Started like he would, to willfully unemployed, to a solid finish to his career. Def not HOF or even HO very good but many years in upper quartile.
There's a whole other tangent here on how quickly the 3 Rs are gonna fall off. A lot of HOF QB die at 37/38.
Dan Hindery
Moderator
I think there is some selective memory on how good Favre was late in his career. He had the one really good year at age 40 with the Vikings that kind of came out of nowhere. Other than that one season, after the age of 35 he threw 99 TDs and 103 INTs.Just Win Baby said:
Kurt Warner had a couple solid seasons late in his career, but he started over 10 games only 6x in his entire career. You can't put him in the same category in terms of longevity as guys like Roethlisberger who has started over 10 games 14x already and probably racks up quite a few more of those seasons.
15 years ago, most guys were seeing a big fall off soon after they hit 30. Donovan McNabb was washed up at 33. So was Drew Bledsoe. Jake Plummer retired at 32.
Time will tell if my hypothesis ends up being correct, but I disagree that we're only going to be talking about HOF guys breaking the mold. For example:
Matt Ryan is 33. Do you see him slowing down anytime soon? Alex Smith is 33, coming off of the best season of his career, and just signed a 4-year extension.
Matthew Stafford is 30. So is Andy Dalton. Kirk Cousins turns 30 this month. I'm expecting these types of non-HOF guys to play into their late 30s as well. Is he showing any signs of decline at all?
From a real-world application in dynasty strategy...
10 years ago if I owned a 33 y/o QB in dynasty I'd be lining up his replacement and in a major hurry to do so. I'd be worried that he would fall off a cliff at 33 or 34. That's not even remotely how I'm viewing guys at that age today.
From the standpoint of putting together dynasty trade value, take somebody like Stafford who is entering his 10th season. I feel pretty good about his chances of playing 7+ more years, which is pretty much the max window I'm looking at for dynasty value. I'm valuing Stafford as a guy that has plenty of years left in dynasty.
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I think the big reason that QBs of this era are lasting so long is more from the rule changes than any fountain of youth type resurgence. As the rules protecting the QBs have changed, the length of a QBs career has grown. Guys in the 80s and 90s took much more punishment than QBs of today.Dan Hindery said:
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sheerterror
Footballguy
I've got nothing to back it up statistically, but it also feels like a large percentage of the incoming NCAA-raised QBs of this era aren't able to translate their skills to the NFL - at least as quickly. Way less of that young guy nipping at your heels mentality that you would see with something like the RB position.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
That is one reason, but a far bigger one is the lack of good young QB's coming in to push them out and the absolute reliance on the QB position in today's game. No way would Flacco would have kept his job in the 80's playing like he has in the last few years and Eli would have been run out of town years ago.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Two guys on the same team, McKinnon and Garoppolo, have some big, but opposite, contrast in value between redraft and dynasty. McKinnon comes off in the 2nd in redraft, but you might get a rookie 2nd for him. Garoppolo costs a rookie 1st, but barely goes as a qb1 in redraft.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
The first part from all the MFL10's I've done. The second from my dynasty league.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
He may squeak into the second in some but it’s rare not the norm. The dynasty trade is a rip-off of a bad owner.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Sorry, you're wrong about the first part. His ADP is 22. The second, yeah you're right. I've heard of him going for a mid-first rookie, but I guess you have to find the right person.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I could make a serious case for Mckinnon over any of the rookie RBs. Before the draft I was really high on the RBs this year, but now, outside of Barkley, not one of the jumps out for me. And now Guice torn ACL
SPeaking of Guice, where do you think he will end up in rookie drafts moving forward (leagues with either large rosters or the ability to put him on IR)?
SPeaking of Guice, where do you think he will end up in rookie drafts moving forward (leagues with either large rosters or the ability to put him on IR)?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
That has to the only FF league in the world where that is the case.I can't even get a future first for him.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
In leagues that haven't had their rookie drafts yet I could see Guice drop into Round 2 - I took him at 1.02 but have to admit it would be tough to pull the trigger on him now even in the late first.
matttyl
Footballguy
Agreed. My league's draft was over a month ago, and he went #2 there as well. K Johnson has to be taken over him at this point.
ex-ghost
Footballguy
In IR leagues I can see him going end of first after the now 7 healthy rookie running backs.
matttyl
Footballguy
Barkley, Chubb, Penny, Michel, Jones, Freeman, Johnson? I wouldn't call Sony Michel "healthy" yet - and Penny might get about as many TDs as Guice with what's going on up there. Freeman hasn't been doing much, either. If you have an IR spot, and RB depth, anything after #5 or so isn't unreasonable.
ex-ghost
Footballguy
matttyl
Footballguy
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
It is dynasty after all, to me in league I own him i'd still need a pretty good offer to move him. Would take a pick looking like a top 4 lock next year for me to move him.
Yes, it's dynasty, not sure what this second round talk is about. I've already sent out offers for him giving Michel or Jones.
