Fool-on-Stoopid
Footballguy
12 team PPR IDPHooper worth more or less than 3.1?
Offered Hooper for 2.8 to the owner of H Henry/Brate and got a polite No and a smiley
12 team PPR IDPHooper worth more or less than 3.1?
I have him on one team and can’t get anything near mid-1st valuePrice check on McKinnon in PPR. I imagine he has a wide price range. What's his value wrt rookie picks? Generic future first, or the 1.6 this year?
What about wrt other running backs? I offered him and a future third for Howard and was rejected, no counter. I hope I didn't insult my league-mate.
That's how dynasty works with youth + potential, optimists drive the price.cloppbeast said:That's the optimists point of view for JG. A realist will notice an unknown floor accompanies an unknown cieling. Playing the odds, the chances he is Joe Flacco or Eli Manning are better than he's Aaron Rodgers.
For Stafford, we know his floor but we may not have seen his ceiling yet (besides his first full season). Many quarterbacks don't put up their best stats until around 30, ie Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. And if Stafford is what he is, then fine. You could do worse.
This is a case of a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Agree 100%.Garoppolo is tricky. I feel like sellers want a first, and buyers only want to pay a 2nd.
I think the market has settled on a 1st for the most part but I think that's probably a bit much for him even though I love the talent. He just doesn't have those middle of the road rushing numbers like Luck and Rodgers have to really push them into that top tier. With essentially no rushing stats he basically has to be Brady/Peyton to be a top 3 fantasy QB and I don't think it's likely he ends up on that level.
I think a realistic upside for him is Matt Stafford, with the rare top 5 season alongside a bunch of seasons in the 6-10 range for fantasy points. Now a 26 year old version of Stafford certainly has some value, but again I think we're talking upside here and there is still a big risk that he's another one of those QBs that flashes early but defenses eventually figure out.
In a league where I had him alongside Wentz/Luck this offseason I traded away JG+2.01 for 2019 1st + 2.06 and I was happy with that return, and that was before any good news came out about Luck/Wentz's recoveries.
Genuinely curious as to why. I guess I just value WRs more in dynasty than the consensus.ILUVBEER99 said:I don't really value L. Miller at all. He doesn't have much trade value at all despite where some rankings have him. Most i've seen him go for in real trades is a mid/late 2nd.
Much prefer Barkley to OBJ and 1.12 doesn't bridge the gap.
You could get either of those guys extremely cheap. I'd guess a 3rd round for Bridgewater and a 4th for Brissett. I'm currently doing a Superflex startup and neither has been drafted through 16 rounds. Not expecting either to be drafted any time real soon either.Thoughts on the value of likely future NFL starting QBs in a Superflex league?
Specifically, thinking about Bridgewater and Brissett. They'd be relatively worthless in a start 1 QB league, but I'm of the opinion that both are very likely to find their way into a starting role and can be a solid #2 QB. Assuming he's healthy, Bridgewater maybe early this year, maybe via a trade, or maybe next year. And Brissett I believe is signed through 2019, but if Luck proves to be healthy, the Colts will almost have to cash in on him before then. As a 22 year old, he did well for the Colts last year considering he didn't even land there until right before the season.
Any thoughts or recent deals involving guys like them in a Superflex league?
This is very true and something I rarely see mentioned. The narrative still seems to be that QBs are in short supply. However, the NFL has been flooded with good QBs in the draft in recent year and there just aren't many spots for fringe starter types. Even with guys like Tyrod and Foles who we tend to assume will find a starting job somewhere - it's difficult to see where those opportunities would be.You could get either of those guys extremely cheap. I'd guess a 3rd round for Bridgewater and a 4th for Brissett. I'm currently doing a Superflex startup and neither has been drafted through 16 rounds. Not expecting either to be drafted any time real soon either.
I personally don't like the chances of either earning a starting job next year. Very few teams need a starting QB right now and you'll probably also have guys like Sam Bradford, Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, and Nick Foles on the FA market.
Yeah, it's looking like 3 straight good QB classes with Wentz, Dak, Goff, Watson, Trubisky, Mahomes and the 5 first rounders this year who should get their shot soon.This is very true and something I rarely see mentioned. The narrative still seems to be that QBs are in short supply. However, the NFL has been flooded with good QBs in the draft in recent year and there just aren't many spots for fringe starter types. Even with guys like Tyrod and Foles who we tend to assume will find a starting job somewhere - it's difficult to see where those opportunities would be.
He's worth rostering but I don't think he has any trade value.Does Decker carry any value now?
Sutton is also having positive camp reports. I don't put much stock into it.How do much do you upgrade players with good training camp reports? For instance, is Anthony Miller worth more than Sutton or Royce now?
Wow. I have Barkley and I’m expecting big things, but I would accept that pretty quickly.Shrek said:Non PPR dynasty, Team 1 just gave Team 2 Amari Cooper, Dalvin Cook, and 1.7 for Saquon Barkley. I think Team 2 made out like a bandit. He'll probably be looking at either a RB like Michel/K. Johnson/Freeman or a WR like Moore/Ridley/Sutton with that pick.
I think you absolutely take training camp stuff into account. Especially when the reporting is universally positive and backed up by actions. With Miller, everyone who has seen him has raved. He also has already locked down a starting job and was deemed too important to risk playing in the first preseason game.cloppbeast said:How do much do you upgrade players with good training camp reports? For instance, is Anthony Miller worth more than Sutton or Royce now?
This time of year, well it's funny. Almost every player gets positive news from the beat guys. A lot of time it serves as confirmation bias. I find myself searching the players I like or have on my team, searching for information to back me up. Maybe the useful takes come from few negative ones. For instance, Reece Fountain, it is claimed, hasn't gotten much separation in practice, while Cain has dominated. But perhaps Fountain doesn't need separation but can use his size and position to make receptions from well placed passes.I think you absolutely take training camp stuff into account. Especially when the reporting is universally positive and backed up by actions. With Miller, everyone who has seen him has raved. He also has already locked down a starting job and was deemed too important to risk playing in the first preseason game.
It's logical to bump up guys like that over the guys in the same general tier who haven't been generating a ton of buzz (Christian Kirk as one example).
I wouldn't bump Miller over Royce yet just due to the relative scarcity of RBs vs. WRs, though I think it's a reasonable question. And Sutton is getting almost as much positive press as Miller, so those two are a coin flip for me. I'd love either of those guys in the late 1st round if there are still rookie drafts going down. Miller and Sutton should be harder and more costly to trade for than they were a few weeks ago because we now have more information to go on.
Not a Cooper believer so I would not take that.Shrek said:Non PPR dynasty, Team 1 just gave Team 2 Amari Cooper, Dalvin Cook, and 1.7 for Saquon Barkley. I think Team 2 made out like a bandit. He'll probably be looking at either a RB like Michel/K. Johnson/Freeman or a WR like Moore/Ridley/Sutton with that pick.
And I get that everyone has different values on players. But I've done this for a very long time, and I can't remember the last time that a rookie in dynasty was valued like Barkley seems to be this year, at least in terms of what people are willing to trade to get him. It's gotten crazy lately.Not a Cooper believer so I would not take that.
Reggie Bush back in the day had insane value. Elliott was bringing in hauls as well.And I get that everyone has different values on players. But I've done this for a very long time, and I can't remember the last time that a rookie in dynasty was valued like Barkley seems to be this year, at least in terms of what people are willing to trade to get him. It's gotten crazy lately.
I only see one person in that group with a great chance at being elite for 15+ years, and he's coming off tearing 2 ligaments in his knee.Yeah, it's looking like 3 straight good QB classes with Wentz, Dak, Goff, Watson, Trubisky, Mahomes and the 5 first rounders this year who should get their shot soon.
Seems like a bad sample size. Two of the best 10 QB of all time are about 40 right now. This is not an indication of future 40 year olds.Plus, and I mentioned this in my last article, the aging curve (or whatever you want to call it) is really changing at the position. Guys like Brees and Brady are showing you can still be elite at ~40 years old and all the 34-36 year old QBs (Roethlisberger, Rivers, Rodgers, etc.) are showing zero signs of slowing down and it's not crazy to think those guys might go until they are 39+ as well. When guys are locking down starting QB jobs for almost 20 straight years, there are naturally way fewer starting jobs open.
I agree. I own him and I would jump at some of these offers. I think the success of Zeke and all the rookies last year have everyone thinking that if those guys can do that, Barkley is going to smash all the records.And I get that everyone has different values on players. But I've done this for a very long time, and I can't remember the last time that a rookie in dynasty was valued like Barkley seems to be this year, at least in terms of what people are willing to trade to get him. It's gotten crazy lately.
Yes? Did you read the Michael thomas thread that year?I can't make sense of it sometimes. I mean, could any of us have predicted Michael Thomas from the training camp reporting?
Where'd I say those QBs would be elite for 15+ years? That's a strawman argument.I only see one person in that group with a great chance at being elite for 15+ years, and he's coming off tearing 2 ligaments in his knee.
Seems like a bad sample size. Two of the best 10 QB of all time are about 40 right now. This is not an indication of future 40 year olds.
There's quite a few former QB, who looked like they would continue to be elite at 37 but didn't. John Elway, Kurt Warner, Steve Young, Rich Gannon. I would argue Roeth and Rodgers have shown signs of slowing down, particularly injury accumulation Brady and Brees largely avoided.
The teams I view as having a low likelihood of drafting a QB in the 1st in the next 5 years are PHI, SEA, DET. Just missing that criteria would be ATL, TEN, HOU. Everyone else is wide open. Death, taxes.
I remember you were leading the charge in making the case that Thomas was a stud in the making. I took MT at 5 ahead of Coleman because of that thread, worked out pretty well.Yes? Did you read the Michael thomas thread that year?
Serious players do a lot of reading and research before making significant trades. Trading away SB would count as such. When the perception that SB is worth 4 firsts or an elite RB plus an elite WR and is repeated over and over- most owners are going to hold out for that type of bonanza, thus, even overpay proposals might be rejected. Nobody wants to sell the next superstar RB for anything less than 1.25 on the dollar.I agree. I own him and I would jump at some of these offers. I think the success of Zeke and all the rookies last year have everyone thinking that if those guys can do that, Barkley is going to smash all the records.
I sure hope he does, but Cooper, Dalvin, and 1.07? Sign me up for that all day. And I’m not even a big Cooper fan.
True. Both are garbage players so I'm not too interested in the original discussion. I am more interested in your discussion of the aging curve because clearly there have been many QB in the history of the NFL who played well into their late 30s. This relates to a dynasty value discussion if we look at guys like Dak and Goff (who I would view as mediocre/competent starters and little more) and assume QBs are gonna play forever now. Great QB who avoid serious injury accumulation play forever - I feel this is an axiom of football and has been true forever. If your statement "When guys are locking down starting QB jobs for almost 20 straight years" applied to only those 3 franchises (SD, GB, PIT) then sure, in this limited question, there are less opportunities for the current 35th and 36th best QBs in the world over the next 12 to 15 months.The discussion was about open QB jobs in the 2019 season and whether there would be starting opportunities out there for guys like Brissett and Bridgewater.
The question is really if this is trend, which I took from your original statement, or just a factor of the careers of 5 current players. Can easily point to older QB in the last year (+/-) who are not playing at a high level and/or have finished falling apart like Eli, Romo, Palmer, Cutler. We don't know what is coming up for these players. A handful of QB coming off good seasons at 34+ is not enough data to be statistically meaningful. This is what I meant by "seems like a bad sample size." We have 5 great QB over 34 playing now. We don't have a lot of great QB between 25 and 34 playing now. What happens after Rodgers retires and we have no great QB over 35. Russ will be the elder statesman at 34/35. (Maybe Ryan or Smith will still be around.) We gonna say QB can't keep playing past 35 just cause there aren't any? There will be a lot of evidence due to, potentially, both of the other QB in his class not living up to their potential. It will be the opposite short-sighted hypothesis.These guys are hanging on to starting jobs longer and playing at a higher level than at any time in history. Don't know how that is disputable when looking at the numbers.
The 5 current players are Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, and Rodgers. That is a sample set of HOF caliber QBs. Of recently retired HOF caliber QBs, Favre, Warner, and Peyton also played well into their late 30s.The question is really if this is trend, which I took from your original statement, or just a factor of the careers of 5 current players. Can easily point to older QB in the last year (+/-) who are not playing at a high level and/or have finished falling apart like Eli, Romo, Palmer, Cutler
Romo is close. He would be if he had kept playing. Similar resume to Rivers. Still might TBH due to popularity as broadcaster raising his reputation.Of your counterpoints, only Eli is potentially HOF caliber, and his case is shaky and based on two postseasons moreso than on his general level of QB play. So your counterpoints are generally lesser QBs.
I think there is some selective memory on how good Favre was late in his career. He had the one really good year at age 40 with the Vikings that kind of came out of nowhere. Other than that one season, after the age of 35 he threw 99 TDs and 103 INTs.Just Win Baby said:The 5 current players are Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, and Rodgers. That is a sample set of HOF caliber QBs. Of recently retired HOF caliber QBs, Favre, Warner, and Peyton also played well into their late 30s.
Of your counterpoints, only Eli is potentially HOF caliber, and his case is shaky and based on two postseasons moreso than on his general level of QB play. So your counterpoints are generally lesser QBs.
However, I agree that just because the HOF caliber QBs seem to be trending to playing at a high level to a more advanced age does not mean that most/all QBs will do so.
I think the big reason that QBs of this era are lasting so long is more from the rule changes than any fountain of youth type resurgence. As the rules protecting the QBs have changed, the length of a QBs career has grown. Guys in the 80s and 90s took much more punishment than QBs of today.Dan Hindery said:These guys are hanging on to starting jobs longer and playing at a higher level than at any time in history. Don't know how that is disputable when looking at the numbers.
bingo. I'm with mcdI think the big reason that QBs of this era are lasting so long is more from the rule changes than any fountain of youth type resurgence. As the rules protecting the QBs have changed, the length of a QBs career has grown. Guys in the 80s and 90s took much more punishment than QBs of today.
I've got nothing to back it up statistically, but it also feels like a large percentage of the incoming NCAA-raised QBs of this era aren't able to translate their skills to the NFL - at least as quickly. Way less of that young guy nipping at your heels mentality that you would see with something like the RB position.I think the big reason that QBs of this era are lasting so long is more from the rule changes than any fountain of youth type resurgence. As the rules protecting the QBs have changed, the length of a QBs career has grown. Guys in the 80s and 90s took much more punishment than QBs of today.
That is one reason, but a far bigger one is the lack of good young QB's coming in to push them out and the absolute reliance on the QB position in today's game. No way would Flacco would have kept his job in the 80's playing like he has in the last few years and Eli would have been run out of town years ago.I think the big reason that QBs of this era are lasting so long is more from the rule changes than any fountain of youth type resurgence. As the rules protecting the QBs have changed, the length of a QBs career has grown. Guys in the 80s and 90s took much more punishment than QBs of today.
Don’t know where you are getting this from.McKinnon comes off in the 2nd in redraft, but you might get a rookie 2nd for him.
McKinnon comes off in the 2nd in redraft, but you might get a rookie 2nd for him.
The first part from all the MFL10's I've done. The second from my dynasty league.Don’t know where you are getting this from.
He may squeak into the second in some but it’s rare not the norm. The dynasty trade is a rip-off of a bad owner.The first part from all the MFL10's I've done. The second from my dynasty league.
Sorry, you're wrong about the first part. His ADP is 22. The second, yeah you're right. I've heard of him going for a mid-first rookie, but I guess you have to find the right person.He may squeak into the second in some but it’s rare not the norm. The dynasty trade is a rip-off of a bad owner.
I can't even get a future first for him.Yea McKinnon seems to be valued in the 1.5 range in all the leagues I am. A 2nd isn't even starting a conversation.
That has to the only FF league in the world where that is the case.I can't even get a future first for him.![]()
In leagues that haven't had their rookie drafts yet I could see Guice drop into Round 2 - I took him at 1.02 but have to admit it would be tough to pull the trigger on him now even in the late first.I could make a serious case for Mckinnon over any of the rookie RBs. Before the draft I was really high on the RBs this year, but now, outside of Barkley, not one of the jumps out for me. And now Guice torn ACL
SPeaking of Guice, where do you think he will end up in rookie drafts moving forward (leagues with either large rosters or the ability to put him on IR)?
Agreed. My league's draft was over a month ago, and he went #2 there as well. K Johnson has to be taken over him at this point.In leagues that haven't had their rookie drafts yet I could see Guice drop into Round 2 - I took him at 1.02 but have to admit it would be tough to pull the trigger on him now even in the late first.
In IR leagues I can see him going end of first after the now 7 healthy rookie running backs.Agreed. My league's draft was over a month ago, and he went #2 there as well. K Johnson has to be taken over him at this point.
Barkley, Chubb, Penny, Michel, Jones, Freeman, Johnson? I wouldn't call Sony Michel "healthy" yet - and Penny might get about as many TDs as Guice with what's going on up there. Freeman hasn't been doing much, either. If you have an IR spot, and RB depth, anything after #5 or so isn't unreasonable.In IR leagues I can see him going end of first after the now 7 healthy rookie running backs.
Yep, those 7. Should have said “7 running backs who are not out for the season”.Barkley, Chubb, Penny, Michel, Jones, Freeman, Johnson? I wouldn't call Sony Michel "healthy" yet - and Penny might get about as many TDs as Guice with what's going on up there. Freeman hasn't been doing much, either. If you have an IR spot, and RB depth, anything after #5 or so isn't unreasonable.
Barkely (tier)Yep, those 7. Should have said “7 running backs who are not out for the season”.
Yes, it's dynasty, not sure what this second round talk is about. I've already sent out offers for him giving Michel or Jones.It is dynasty after all, to me in league I own him i'd still need a pretty good offer to move him. Would take a pick looking like a top 4 lock next year for me to move him.