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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (7 Viewers)

There's no guarantee Allen will pick up where he left off or that Mike Williams will instantly make an impact. Will be interesting to see how Tyrell is deployed in the preseason. I think his value will be higher by the time the first game is played.

 
squistion said:
You might get a 3rd for him, but I am not even sure of that. Definite hold if you have the roster space due to the injury concerns with Allen plus the fact that TW will be a free agent in 2018 IIRC.
I'd definitely give a 3rd.

 
Okay...so what IS he worth?
I think Reeds targets and Pryors targets arent going to be an issue. There will be enough to go around.

I think he walks into a situation where he is the best WR on the team and he will do fine.... this year

Even if he resigns with Was for 2018 and beyond, Cousins likely wont. So his QB situation almost certainly is bad if he stays. Could end up somewhere positive in FA though

Add in the unknown quantity that is Doctson, and it could be more complicated if he is an impact this year or a perceived impact in 2018

Not sure what id invest into that situation, would be dependent on my roster and how competitive it would make me vs the investments possible payoff. A late 1st for a difference maker this year that could help put you over the top is a fair price.

 
I think Reeds targets and Pryors targets arent going to be an issue. There will be enough to go around.

I think he walks into a situation where he is the best WR on the team and he will do fine.... this year

Even if he resigns with Was for 2018 and beyond, Cousins likely wont. So his QB situation almost certainly is bad if he stays. Could end up somewhere positive in FA though

Add in the unknown quantity that is Doctson, and it could be more complicated if he is an impact this year or a perceived impact in 2018

Not sure what id invest into that situation, would be dependent on my roster and how competitive it would make me vs the investments possible payoff. A late 1st for a difference maker this year that could help put you over the top is a fair price.
Bingo.

It's also the reason I'm not sold on Michael Thomas (of the Saints).  Not sure how long Brees continues.

 
Bingo.

It's also the reason I'm not sold on Michael Thomas (of the Saints).  Not sure how long Brees continues.
on the flip side of that coin, he did pretty well in spite  of the dumpster fire carousel of qbs in Cle

 
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How do we feel about Terrelle Pryor in non-ppr? Was thinking of offering the 1.9.
I feel like those of us that got lucky and snagged Pryor at the right time last year on the WW or late in last year's Dynasty rookie/vet draft (which is what happened in most cases), and then watched him miraculously contribute week after week through the 6 QB carousel that was Cleveland, are really excited about his opportunity in Washington, and even longer term as he continues to demonstrate his growth.

Now is the time to go after him for sure and hope that the guy who owns him is caught up in rookie fever and will take a late 1st.  I probably wouldn't do it for anything less than 1.6, but my Dyno team is in a win now mode and needs immediate help if I'm giving up a guy like Pryor that I believe has WR1 potential in Washington this year.

Hope that helps...GL in your Pryor hunt!

 
What price would you guys put on these two backs in terms of rookie picks this year?  Howard and Lacy?  How different would you buy price be from your sale price?

 
Okay...so what IS he worth?
It is hard to say if Pryor's value has gone up or down after landing in Washington.  On the surface it seems like an improvement, but the uncertainty with Cousins and the 1 year deal and the fact that he didn't command a lot of $$ on the open market all make me a bit skeptical that he'll build upon what he did last year.  On top of that, he is about to turn 28 which limits his dynasty value a little.  All things considered I'd be selling if I could get a late first and buying for a mid 2nd.  1.12 sounds about right to me. 

 
I think 1.09 is closer to his value than a mid 2nd.  Call it 1.10-1.12ish?  
I think people would be surprised to find out that he'll be 28 prior to the season. I guess it's because people think he's still a "young WR", but forget he spent years as a QB.

Personally I think he was forced the ball a ton last season since Cleveland had no one else, and I think his numbers will fall a bit this season - while most probably think he should improve as he learns the position better.

I can see some one paying the late first for him, but it wouldn't be me.

 
I think Reeds targets and Pryors targets arent going to be an issue. There will be enough to go around.

I think he walks into a situation where he is the best WR on the team and he will do fine.... this year

Even if he resigns with Was for 2018 and beyond, Cousins likely wont. So his QB situation almost certainly is bad if he stays. Could end up somewhere positive in FA though

Add in the unknown quantity that is Doctson, and it could be more complicated if he is an impact this year or a perceived impact in 2018

Not sure what id invest into that situation, would be dependent on my roster and how competitive it would make me vs the investments possible payoff. A late 1st for a difference maker this year that could help put you over the top is a fair price.
I actually think Crowder will be the top WR in Washington.

 
Bumping this excellent thread since I referred to it in the Dynasty Trades thread. 

Love this thread. 

If there wasn't already a Terrance West value thread, I'd ask about his value here. Ok, I'll ask here anyway ;)

mid-2nd rounder (12 team) sounds about right to me. 

 
If I needed a decent RB3/flex to put me over the top I might pay a mid 2nd for west, but I think I'd rather chase someone with some upside (be it Long term or for this year).  If I owned him I'd be looking to move him and a random 2nd would be enough.

what about martavis Bryant after the partial reinstatement news?  I tried to buy earlier and failed - offered Antonio + ajayi for zeke + Bryant.  thinking about making another run.  

 
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If there wasn't already a Terrance West value thread, I'd ask about his value here. Ok, I'll ask here anyway ;)

mid-2nd rounder (12 team) sounds about right to me. 
Too rich for my blood.  I'm not comfortable giving up anything higher than a high-3rd for him.  He's got such a short dynasty shelf life, and he's not really going to be a difference-maker, IMO.

 
I think West should have more value than Jamaal Williams and I saw Williams go in the mid 2nd of every draft I did. In full PPR I could see not wanting to give up the pick regardless of need since there are so many WRs this year. Flacco's injury adds more risk since it could reduce his TD production a lot if they don't sign Kaep and Mallet ends up with some starts. He's not great, but I'm not sure who is a better short term starter at that price tag.

 
Lets discuss Ty Motgomery if you all don't mind.  Seems to be all over the place and after listening to a couple of podcasts I'm convinced to buy so I sent a Landry for Montgomery/1st offer to the defending champ.  I did an FFPC start up this year too and Landry went 2.12 and Ty went 4.08.  Does that sound about right?  I'd think Montgomery is going to rise up that ADP right now but the risk is rather large if he holds that job no?  

 
Lets discuss Ty Motgomery if you all don't mind.  Seems to be all over the place and after listening to a couple of podcasts I'm convinced to buy so I sent a Landry for Montgomery/1st offer to the defending champ.  I did an FFPC start up this year too and Landry went 2.12 and Ty went 4.08.  Does that sound about right?  I'd think Montgomery is going to rise up that ADP right now but the risk is rather large if he holds that job no?  
I see Jarvis Landrys targets coming down slightly from 2016 in part because of the emergence of Parker.

I still don't buy Montgomery being the full time starter for the Packers when they drafted two quality RB in Williams and Jones. I think Montgomery is one of the most over valued players in fantasy right now. I haven't heard the reasoning behind that, but it likely involves some serious pro rating of small sample size and ignoring the other players on the Packers offense.

eta- Do what you want but I would back away from the trade you are considering.

 
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Zyphros said:
Lets discuss Ty Motgomery if you all don't mind.  Seems to be all over the place and after listening to a couple of podcasts I'm convinced to buy so I sent a Landry for Montgomery/1st offer to the defending champ.  I did an FFPC start up this year too and Landry went 2.12 and Ty went 4.08.  Does that sound about right?  I'd think Montgomery is going to rise up that ADP right now but the risk is rather large if he holds that job no?  
I'm hoping Ty blows up in preseason or week 1 so I can sell him for a 2018 1st immediately. 

 
Biabreakable said:
I see Jarvis Landrys targets coming down slightly from 2016 in part because of the emergence of Parker.

I still don't buy Montgomery being the full time starter for the Packers when they drafted two quality RB in Williams and Jones. I think Montgomery is one of the most over valued players in fantasy right now. I haven't heard the reasoning behind that, but it likely involves some serious pro rating of small sample size and ignoring the other players on the Packers offense.

eta- Do what you want but I would back away from the trade you are considering.
Why do you believe he's overvalued?  The dude had 77 rushes total as a RB.  That's hardly any usage for a RB and from everything I've heard he's put on weight to carry the load more, looked great doing it and improved in everything with a year under his belt as focusing solely on the RB position.  It's not unreasonable to expect double the rushes and the possibility of repeating his receiving numbers.  Or is it?  I'm curious.  At worst I'd say he's due for 150 rushing attempts, unless one of these rookies absolutely dominates the first chance they get, which I find unlikely.  

He turned 24 already this year, so he's still young and he was super efficient last year with the opportunities he got.  Maybe it's just what I've been reading/listening too lately but they have me convinced he's a steal.  According to ESPN his ADP is 54.8.  That seems like a great price for a low end RB1 when the rest are gone by the end of the 3rd.  

 
Your answering your own question with how many rushing attempts he had last season. 77 rushing attempts for a guy who only got those carries because the other RB were injured.

No sample size yet this guy is being drafted in the 3rd or 4th dynasty and redraft leagues? Pass there are much safer options than this guy at that price point.

Cobb was injured last season so some of those receptions he had may fade back and the rushing attempts may come down as well because of Williams and Jones being good RBs. Nevermind that the Packers tend to throw the ball in the red zone more often than they will run and that role will likely not be Mongomery's anyways. I would guess Williams wins the goal line assignments.

People are drafting an offensive weapon type player in the 4th round? Let them.

Here is the most recent example of a player like Montgomery transitioning to RB that I can remember.

I didn't see that you were asking for Montgomery and a 1st round pick. Thats not so bad if you are just trying to get what you can for Landry. I thought you were talking about trading Landry for Montgomery straight up. Landry might fade so you may be happy with the 1st round pick for him next year. Just depends on if you need him in your lineup this year or not.

Landry is a good proven player. Montgomery is not.

 
Biabreakable said:
I still don't buy Montgomery being the full time starter for the Packers when they drafted two quality RB in Williams and Jones.
We can also look at this as they drafted two later round RBs for depth - since they literally had no one behind Montgomery (who is far from established). By no means do I think Montgomery has the job locked down but we shouldn't act like it's a lock that Williams or Jones will even be in the NFL in two years.

 
I think West should have more value than Jamaal Williams and I saw Williams go in the mid 2nd of every draft I did. In full PPR I could see not wanting to give up the pick regardless of need since there are so many WRs this year. Flacco's injury adds more risk since it could reduce his TD production a lot if they don't sign Kaep and Mallet ends up with some starts. He's not great, but I'm not sure who is a better short term starter at that price tag.
Why do you think that? West has shown he's a JAG... but with a one year opportunity. The Baltimore offense is mediocre, the OL isn't very good, and a 32 yo Woodhead was brought in to help with passing downs. I'm guessing West has low-end RB2 upside in PPR and a low-end RB3 floor. Jamaal Williams is a talented back who has a good shot at goal line carries right out of the gate and is likely a better pass blocker as a rookie than Ty Montgomery. If Ty gets Rodgers hit a few times, I think Jamaal could take over as the lead back in a very potent offense with an average to above average OL.

 
I guess I'm seeing the 77 carries as the beginning while others are seeing it as a negative.  To that I say it was his first year as a RB and there's more to come.  Even with those rookies taking a few carries here and there, Montgomery will get a higher workload.  

 
In rookie drafts, how far is it to be considered a reach if you know you're going to draft a guy early(who you want) when there are no takers in terms of a trade to move back, because you know not taking him at your pick ( when you know it's still too early relative to other people's rankings and or ADP of that player) will result in him not being there when you come back?

Sometimes I think if you want and believe that a guy is poised for something good then you just got to go get that player when you think you need to and disregard what other people think of his value.

For me I think that guy is Cooper Kupp at pick 1.12. I just don't think he'll last till 2.12. I'm only up to pick number 7 at this point in our draft so there still some other guys on the board who if they're there at 12 will make it really hard for me to pass on them in favor of kupp. Maybe I pick 12 at the right value and then see if I can trade up earlier into the second to get Kupp.

 
Why do you think that? West has shown he's a JAG... but with a one year opportunity. The Baltimore offense is mediocre, the OL isn't very good, and a 32 yo Woodhead was brought in to help with passing downs. I'm guessing West has low-end RB2 upside in PPR and a low-end RB3 floor. Jamaal Williams is a talented back who has a good shot at goal line carries right out of the gate and is likely a better pass blocker as a rookie than Ty Montgomery. If Ty gets Rodgers hit a few times, I think Jamaal could take over as the lead back in a very potent offense with an average to above average OL.
Jamaal Williams is more than likely JAG and may never get the same opportunity. The chance Jamaal Williams is a RB1 is pretty low. The player comparison on his NFL.com page is Stepfan Taylor. I think a good outcome for him is what West is now. Taking him over West you are hoping for the inside straight.

 
In rookie drafts, how far is it to be considered a reach if you know you're going to draft a guy early(who you want) when there are no takers in terms of a trade to move back, because you know not taking him at your pick ( when you know it's still too early relative to other people's rankings and or ADP of that player) will result in him not being there when you come back?

Sometimes I think if you want and believe that a guy is poised for something good then you just got to go get that player when you think you need to and disregard what other people think of his value.

For me I think that guy is Cooper Kupp at pick 1.12. I just don't think he'll last till 2.12. I'm only up to pick number 7 at this point in our draft so there still some other guys on the board who if they're there at 12 will make it really hard for me to pass on them in favor of kupp. Maybe I pick 12 at the right value and then see if I can trade up earlier into the second to get Kupp.
Without discussing Kupp specifically (who I do like) I think the concept of a "reach" in dynasty rookie drafts is overblown. What we're really talking about is consensus opinion almost "forcing" you to take the next guy up instead of who you really like when you're OTC. Obviously it would be better to trade down if you can and get something else and still get your guy but that also assumes 1) you can find a trade partner and 2) no one takes your guy before the draft reaches your new slot. If you personally think Kupp is the guy you want at 1.12, I would grab him rather than take another player and hope that Kupp falls to your next pick. If you are sure you can get him in the early second you could also try and trade up from 1.12 (which isn't always easy to do either.

Bottom line is I'd rather win or lose with  my guys than just look good by taking the guy I "should".

 
Jamaal Williams is more than likely JAG and may never get the same opportunity. The chance Jamaal Williams is a RB1 is pretty low. The player comparison on his NFL.com page is Stepfan Taylor. I think a good outcome for him is what West is now. Taking him over West you are hoping for the inside straight.
While I like Williams more than most, I don't disagree that odds are against him.  That said, in this player comparison I think I'd rather hope for the inside straight than settle for the J7 offsuit.

 
Jamaal Williams is more than likely JAG and may never get the same opportunity. The chance Jamaal Williams is a RB1 is pretty low. The player comparison on his NFL.com page is Stepfan Taylor. I think a good outcome for him is what West is now. Taking him over West you are hoping for the inside straight.
Hah, the NFL.com pages are a joke. You should look up some current studs and duds and look at the laughable comps and scouting reports on those guys.

I wouldn't say Jamaal is in inside straight, but he's definitely a roll of the dice. But trading for West is like getting dealt a pair of 2's and having 8 people call your raise. You basically know you just threw money away. Because while there might be a greater than 50% chance of JW ending up as a JAG, there's a 99% chance West is a JAG. You really want to rent the non-pass catching JAG RB in a mediocre offense with a below average OL? With JW at least you have hope of upside. In his 4th year in the league, West is on a small 1-year deal after being cut by two different teams in his first two years.

If a one year RB3 rental is going to put a team over the edge (somehow) then sure, get West. But I'd rather have upside with a 2nd round pick. I'd much rather have Jamaal Williams, Godwin, Henderson, or a few other mid-to-late 2nd round rookies at the end of my roster than West who would be just taking up space... not good enough to start, not bad enough to drop. FWIW, I think Waldman had Williams as his #5 or #6 RB of this class. Given this class, that's high praise.

 
It is hard to say if Pryor's value has gone up or down after landing in Washington.  On the surface it seems like an improvement, but the uncertainty with Cousins and the 1 year deal and the fact that he didn't command a lot of $$ on the open market all make me a bit skeptical that he'll build upon what he did last year.  On top of that, he is about to turn 28 which limits his dynasty value a little.  All things considered I'd be selling if I could get a late first and buying for a mid 2nd.  1.12 sounds about right to me. 
made the following trade this week

gave Pryor, Gore, 2 late 2nd rd 2018 picks

got Baldwin

 
If a one year RB3 rental is going to put a team over the edge (somehow) then sure, get West. But I'd rather have upside with a 2nd round pick. I'd much rather have Jamaal Williams, Godwin, Henderson, or a few other mid-to-late 2nd round rookies at the end of my roster than West who would be just taking up space... 
IMO the most valuable thing of West, Jamaal Williams, and the mid 2nd used to take Williams is the pick. I am higher on West than you in that I think he will get volume. I would cast him more as a matchup play or flex play and less as a waste of a roster space. I would gladly take him if people were giving him away. If I had too many RB, I'd be willing to sell a better one if I had him and others to fall back on.

 
In rookie drafts, how far is it to be considered a reach if you know you're going to draft a guy early(who you want) when there are no takers in terms of a trade to move back, because you know not taking him at your pick ( when you know it's still too early relative to other people's rankings and or ADP of that player) will result in him not being there when you come back?

Sometimes I think if you want and believe that a guy is poised for something good then you just got to go get that player when you think you need to and disregard what other people think of his value.

For me I think that guy is Cooper Kupp at pick 1.12. I just don't think he'll last till 2.12. I'm only up to pick number 7 at this point in our draft so there still some other guys on the board who if they're there at 12 will make it really hard for me to pass on them in favor of kupp. Maybe I pick 12 at the right value and then see if I can trade up earlier into the second to get Kupp.
In May and June I was pretty successful passing on Kupp and picking him up later because at that stage he was in the late 2nd/early 3rd part of the draft where people were fine moving off of picks. This is significantly different than early 2nd where people still hold firm.

Similar players this year are Foreman and Joe Williams. I've seen both in late 1st, and both in late 2nd depending on whether there's someone there buying into them.

One thing to take into account is future acquisition cost. What if Kupp hits, has a good year, and his value goes up? Does it go up more than the late 1st you're reaching for him at? Maybe but not likely. That applies to a lot of WRs available in the 2nd. That is a lot different than if Foreman or Williams does well, where the cost to acquire is probably a lot higher.

I remember trades after Landry's first year where people were eager to cash out for value not much better than what they paid for him. 

 
IMO the most valuable thing of West, Jamaal Williams, and the mid 2nd used to take Williams is the pick. I am higher on West than you in that I think he will get volume. I would cast him more as a matchup play or flex play and less as a waste of a roster space. I would gladly take him if people were giving him away. If I had too many RB, I'd be willing to sell a better one if I had him and others to fall back on.
I agree that as a likely RB3 ppg type of player, he's a flex or matchup play, but personally, if he was on any of my teams, he'd never see the light of day unless I had more than one injury. If I had him, I'd gladly trade him for a future 2nd or for Jamaal Williams. 

Like you say, West is likely to get volume. I don't think he'll get a lot of receptions or TDs, but he'll accumulate some stats if he stays healthy. He's fine to hold down the fort during a bye week, I guess, but I'm not trading a mid-2nd for him. And I doubt anyone else will, either, unless they are desperate.

 
In my recent rookie draft I moved West and my 3.11 for 2.09 and 3.02. I used those on Jamaal and Henderson, respectively. This was before Dixon got hurt. At the time I was thinking West would just be a stopgap and I like the upside of Williams and I love Henderson. But West may have more value now. IDK. 

 
Aunt Jemima said:
made the following trade this week

gave Pryor, Gore, 2 late 2nd rd 2018 picks

got Baldwin
I could see this one going either way. Pryor is ~9 months younger, still developing as a WR, and in a more pass friendly offense, although only for one year. Trading for the known commodity in a stable situation is definitely the safe move.

 
Speaking of Jamaal Williams, http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0684465759128129536-4

ESPN Packers reporter Rob Demovsky calls fourth-round pick Jamaal Williams the "most likely" running back to push Ty Montgomery for snaps.

Packers OC Edgar Bennett -- a former running back himself -- specifically talked up Williams' pass-protection skills, a strength of Williams' at BYU as well. It also happens to be Montgomery's biggest weakness. Bennett said Williams has "earned work with the first team because of his ability to pass protect." Williams appears to be clearly ahead of fifth-rounder Aaron Jones. (Rotoworld)

 
Thread bump.  

Also wanted to discuss Malcolm Mitchell.  He showed pretty well last year and now with Edelman out, is he the filler?  I think everyone assumes Hogan is but Mitchell plays inside more often (I think?).  I wouldn't think Cooks' value would go up cause it wouldn't affect him, same with Gronk.  Thoughts on his value or if he's due for a productive 2nd year?  

 
Thread bump.  

Also wanted to discuss Malcolm Mitchell.  He showed pretty well last year and now with Edelman out, is he the filler?  I think everyone assumes Hogan is but Mitchell plays inside more often (I think?).  I wouldn't think Cooks' value would go up cause it wouldn't affect him, same with Gronk.  Thoughts on his value or if he's due for a productive 2nd year?  
Percentage of routes run from the slot last season:

  • Edelman - 41.7%
  • Hogan - 26.6%
  • Amendola - 22.8%
  • Cooks - 19.3%
  • Mitchell - 5.7%
Mitchell definitely did not play inside more often, in fact it was exactly the opposite. This may cap the bump Mitchell will get from Edelman's injury.

 
Percentage of routes run from the slot last season:

  • Edelman - 41.7%
  • Hogan - 26.6%
  • Amendola - 22.8%
  • Cooks - 19.3%
  • Mitchell - 5.7%
Mitchell definitely did not play inside more often, in fact it was exactly the opposite. This may cap the bump Mitchell will get from Edelman's injury.
Yeah Amedola is going to see the biggest bump in that % from last season - health permitting of course.

 
Can't remember where I saw it or heard it but it was something along the lines of the Patriots run the most 1 WR sets in the league (or something close to that) so maybe the biggest benefit is one of the RB's?  Since they have 4 that everyone is trying to figure out how they're going to use them all are they the benefit to the Edelman injury?  

I realize trying to guess the Patriots game plan is almost impossible, but the cheapest stashes there are likely Mitchell and the RB's and everyone wants a piece of that offense.  Lack of hype right now for anyone taking Edelman's spot so does that mean nobody is bullish on Mitchell?  No upgrade in value? 

 
Bumping this chestnut of a thread with Hunt's killer performance tonight. 

Im in one league where I have Bell, Gordon, Hunt and McCaffrey (and Terrance West, baby" ;)  )

after tonight's explosion by Hunt, tempted to throw some offers out for the likes of Mike Evans, for example (non-PPR league, btw)

thoughts on selling high high on Hunt for a proven stud WR?

 

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