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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (6 Viewers)
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NeverEnough
Footballguy
Apparently, M. Bryant's dynasty value is still sky high as his owner in 1 league still wanted a king's ransom
Yes it was. If he is a bottom 3 team why in the world would he want to do that trade? ASJ is a solid player but why would he give up a top 15 draft pick for a guy who makes no difference on his team.
That's a major problem with trade offers. Only looking at trade value in a vacuum and not considering overall team goals.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
If ASJ remains at his current place on the totem pole next season, he's worth that pick if the team needs a TE IMO.
Ok, so like a mid to late 2nd to a TE needy team would be more reasonable in your opinion?
Zyphros
Footballguy
I got an offer of ASJ for OJ Howard, I just "lol'd" him and didn't say anything else. All my leagues are 2TE though so slightly more valuable, I'd pay a mid-early 2nd in a heartbeat.
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
Any other people holding Drew Brees and out of playoff picture??
What are you doing with him....holding for next year or trying to trade him and get something of value??
I am out of it and looking to deal him for younger qb and/or wr .. only problem is teams that would take him I could only get Goff or Trubisky for him.
What are you doing with him....holding for next year or trying to trade him and get something of value??
I am out of it and looking to deal him for younger qb and/or wr .. only problem is teams that would take him I could only get Goff or Trubisky for him.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Has anyone seen any Aaron Rodgers trades since he went down? I have not found a buyer short of low ballers.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I brought it up a few weeks ago, but I think it's worth revisiting. Thoughts on the value of Watson, Hopkins, and Fuller?
Deshaun Watson is the highest scoring QB in my 4pt passing league. Hopkins and Fuller are the top two scoring WRs per game (PPR). This is madness. To answer my own question:
Watson: I wasn't a fan pre-breakout, but it's impossible to ignore what he's doing. His production will come back down to earth, but we're seeing his ridiculous ceiling. He carries himself so well, as though none of this is surprising to him. The QB landscape is odd right now, but I couldn't fault anyone for treating him as the QB1. I'm not sure I'm ready to, but he's in my top tier right now. I thought it would be awhile before we saw a rookie campaign better than Dak's.
Hopkins: List of WRs I'd take over Hopkins: OBJ.
Fuller: Really though call. The Randy Moss TD rate will fade, and his production is modest outside of that. He's currently living up to the DJax comp, which I like. I don't own him and am not in a rush to acquire him, personally, but would part with a pick projected to be in the 1.07+ range. I'm not sure his owners would be intersted - and I can't fault them for that.
Deshaun Watson is the highest scoring QB in my 4pt passing league. Hopkins and Fuller are the top two scoring WRs per game (PPR). This is madness. To answer my own question:
Watson: I wasn't a fan pre-breakout, but it's impossible to ignore what he's doing. His production will come back down to earth, but we're seeing his ridiculous ceiling. He carries himself so well, as though none of this is surprising to him. The QB landscape is odd right now, but I couldn't fault anyone for treating him as the QB1. I'm not sure I'm ready to, but he's in my top tier right now. I thought it would be awhile before we saw a rookie campaign better than Dak's.
Hopkins: List of WRs I'd take over Hopkins: OBJ.
Fuller: Really though call. The Randy Moss TD rate will fade, and his production is modest outside of that. He's currently living up to the DJax comp, which I like. I don't own him and am not in a rush to acquire him, personally, but would part with a pick projected to be in the 1.07+ range. I'm not sure his owners would be intersted - and I can't fault them for that.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
He's not an easy asset to move right now. We're not seeing the garbage time production, and that's keeping him from doing much above baseline.
He still wants to play for another few years, and it looks like he'll do that in NO, now that they're winning. I think you hold before moving him for Goff or Trubisky; the exception being teams truly in the hunt for Barkley.
On a side note, Thomas and Kamara are a bit more valuable with each win. We might not have to worry about what they are away from Brees for quite some time.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
It's an above average offer, based on what I get. He was a top 15 prospect in his own class and just turned 25 last month. I personally think ASJ has a higher upside than O.J. Howard. That said, he's got a lot of baggage and might be on his last mulligan. Mid-to-late 2nd sounds about right to me.
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joey
Footballguy
He's the perfect type of player to trade to a team making a playoff run...if he were still putting up passing stats like years past.
In my leagues, he's QB11, which won't put any current playoff contender over the top unless their QB situation is horrible.
I do love the old-guy-for-future-prospect kind of trades when I'm fading mid season. That's what makes dynasty sooo much fun. Even a bad season is a good season when you're looking and planning for next year.
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
Only playoff team that needs a qb is the team that lost Rodgers and he has Goff and McCown. I need a QB as I traded Tyrod in a deal to get Freeman ... anyone with Goff from the rest of these that you would deal Brees for:
DParker/Smallwood/Foreman/Conner/DedeWestbrook
Another thought I had was dealing Brees and Kelce for Rodgers (doubt he does it as a Packers fan-but its a thought) .. I also have EEngram
NeverEnough
Footballguy
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
But a lot of people are still overlooking that because of his name. The reality is that Brees hasn't really been a fantasy difference maker since the middle of last season, but because of his name people still give value for him pretty much equal to what it was when he was ACTUALLY producing.
He is a great sell.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Gurley for me. Younger with no character concerns and Rams look good going forward with Goff.
Andrew74
Footballguy
I figure this thread is as good as any for this topic. It concerns team DEF. my league hogs Ds for some reason, so streaming is difficult. I’ve had the Broncos D for years and it’s been good. But I am wondering if this year may be the end of the run for them. They’ve been a mid to low end DEF1 this year. Is it time to trade them? What DEF to target? I’ve been thinking JAX.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
NeverEnough
Footballguy
I tried some package deals & nothing stuck. Now I'm thinking just try to pair him with Richardson or D. Murray to get a good QB I can start now & keep for the future OR trade him straight up for a RB or WR, but I'm unsure what WRs & RBs I should try to target as equal value. Would be offering Rodgers straight up for someone like Gurley be a pipe dream? Also thinking offer him straight up for Kelce then move Kelce or Gronk for another QB.
I play in a league with heavy performance based defensive scoring. I gave up a 4th for Jacksonville in the pre-season as a Seattle owner, and just traded Seattle away for a 2nd. I buy Jacksonville as a special defense long term. I don't know that I see the Broncos dropping off significantly, but if you can target Jacksonville I would.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Yes. Gurley was a mid-2nd or so startup value before this year, with Rodgers just a bit behind that. But now with the changes in LA taking hold and Rodgers being worth 0 points this season you probably get laughed out of the room.
If you're trading Rodgers straight up for QB I think you look in the Mariotta or Carr range - someone in that 2nd tier that is much younger and could progress into elite longer term but that's going to give you solid return this year in mid-QB1 range. As far as RB's go, you might get a McCoy or Freeman if that owner is panicking. Can't imagine you get Kelce. Think late 3rd round value or so in a startup IMO.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I saw Coleman+2nd for DT recently. I tried to move DT for Coleman straight up (DT was WR5 for me) and the offer was rejected. I'm guessing late 1st or an older, but producing WR.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
DEN has a good playoff schedule, from what I recall. But I traded a 3rd for Jax and don't regret it. They're giving me 7 PPG over baseline. They're a pretty young as well.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I reallly liked him in college, but would not pay a 1st for him. I'm not sold on him as a longterm starter. That said, I haven't watched a bunch of him this year.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
In what scoring system has Denver been a low Def1? They are the #20 defense in my league that has pretty standard defense scoring.
I offered Denver + 3rd + 5th for Jacksonville and was rejected without counter. What really stings is I dropped Jax after they laid an egg in week 2 of this year when my TE was injured.
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Thanks for the feedback. That DT owner fleeced the Coleman owner, IMO. The Coleman teams are unfortunately out of contention so they are not interested in older WRs. I may have to wait until after the NFL draft, when rookie fever is strong, to successfully trade a late 1st for him.
Milkman
Footballguy
Awesome to see Thielen creeping up FBG's dynasty rankings. Wood has him ranked higher than Diggs and stated he thinks Thielen is better than Diggs. I agree. He's on pace for a decent 96-1250-2 season with Case Keenum throwing to him. He's 4th in the league in targets, averaging 9.4 targets a game. That's 3.9 more targets a game than last year. Moving him to the slot this year was huge for his usage. TD's are a funny thing and he's been missed wide open a couple times for TD's. So if he gets hot and catches a few more TD's he could end up a top 10 WR. Volume is there........
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I like Thielen and think he's underrated, but valuing him over Diggs is a bit much. His targets shot up when Diggs went down, and are due for a dip. I think we're seeing his ceiling and doubt that it's sustainable. He's a sneaky buy for guys like DT or Tate; not Diggs.
Edit: Thielen was getting 8 targets a game before Diggs went down, and has seen 11.7 a game since.
Edit: Thielen was getting 8 targets a game before Diggs went down, and has seen 11.7 a game since.
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NeverEnough
Footballguy
Hmm, I wonder if I could steal Coleman by offering Kelvin benajamin or Richardson for him then
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He's not better than Diggs. Even if they were equally talented, Thielen is 3.5 years older.
Milkman
Footballguy
Diggs/Thielen Targets first 5 games
Diggs 8-6-11-7-4 36 total targets
Thielen 10-6-8-8-8 40 total targets
Thielen was quietly Minny's #1 when Diggs was there it's just Diggs was scoring TD's at a lot higher rate than his career average and that was hiding it but predicting TD's is next to impossible. Give me that yummy usage over Diggs hot scoring streak any day. They should both be on this team for the next couple years so it should be interesting to see who outscores who over that period. Thielen basically scored the same amount of points as Diggs with 20 less targets last year.
2016 stats
Thielen 69-967-5 on 92 targets 195.20 points
Diggs 84-903-3 on 112 targets 193.30 points
Thielen is on pace for 150 targets this year if you want him to have that usage cut because of Diggs getting healthy that's understandable. With Diggs playing his targets per game put him on pace for 128 targets and Diggs is on pace for 112. If Diggs regresses a little on the TD rate which isn't out of the question Thielen should outscore him on a per game basis as well as total points this year. Right now Diggs is averaging 15.48 points a games this year and Thielen is averaging 14.23 and thats with Diggs scoring 4 TD's in the first 5 games or .80 TDs/gm when his career TD's per game average over the 26 games prior is .27 TD's/gm. It's reasonable to think he will regress a little in that department. Maybe closer to .50 TD's/gm. Another reasonable assumption is Thielen will score more than 1 TD in the second half of the season.
Milkman
Footballguy
And Diggs has "never" played a full season........I think you guys are missing a little bit of value here with Thielen but I do understand it's close so not terrible to think Diggs is more valuable.
Yeah, I'd be hesitant to acquire either one. Thielen seems like a sell high (he's probably never going to be on a 150 target pace again) while Diggs just can't seem to stay healthy.
Milkman
Footballguy
Thielen looks like one of the best WR in the league to me. He has a great combo of routes/hands/toughness and he can win anywhere on the field. I'd buy him everywhere. His game isn't about being more athletic either. He will age well and I could see him being a top 20 WR for the next 5-6 years. If he ever gets a good QB he could be a FF star. Hell he could sneak into the top 12 WR this year with a garbage QB. I would sell Diggs right now if I could get WR1 return or even WR2 return maybe and it's not really that I think Diggs is bad. He's very good in his own right but he's never healthy all year and now he has a WR on the team that might be better than he is. Not a good combo.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
We're talking about a really small sample size, from a dynasty perspective. Thielen has never been the #1. (Rudolph led the team in overall targets last year; how quickly things can change.) Thielen getting a few more targets, with less attention, playing out of the slot, does not change that. Adjust the TD rate and do what you need to do to get the below numbers in the same ballpark. You're still taking the 27 YO who came out of nowhere over the 23YO who produced from day 1.
2016 PPG/2017 PPG
Thielen: 12.23 / 14.22
Diggs: 14.87 / 15.48
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Diggs is the WR 1 for the Vikings.
When you consider that Diggs seems to keep missing games, as a pro and also in college though, I think they are more even.
With both healthy Diggs tends to outperform Theilen though.
Case Keenum missed Diggs on some wide open long play opportunities against the Browns. Keenum has come to rely on Theilen and even moreso with Diggs out. So they may be more even for awhile with Keenum in the line up.
Overall Diggs has more upside though. You just have worry about him missing games.
Check out some of the play examples in this article for Keenum not seeing Diggs and going to other receivers. A better QB should find Diggs on these plays.
When you consider that Diggs seems to keep missing games, as a pro and also in college though, I think they are more even.
With both healthy Diggs tends to outperform Theilen though.
Case Keenum missed Diggs on some wide open long play opportunities against the Browns. Keenum has come to rely on Theilen and even moreso with Diggs out. So they may be more even for awhile with Keenum in the line up.
Overall Diggs has more upside though. You just have worry about him missing games.
Check out some of the play examples in this article for Keenum not seeing Diggs and going to other receivers. A better QB should find Diggs on these plays.
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Guys on my roster sometimes look better than they actually are to me, too
From a non-owner perspective it seems like he's benefiting from teams not respecting Keenum, Diggs being out, Keenam throwing a lot of balls to Thielen. I doubt NFL teams will make him their WR1, so he'll either need continued injuries around him or for Minnesota to become a top 10 passing team in order for him to maintain a top 20 status. It's not easy to be top 20 when you're not the WR1.
He's currently getting almost 10 targets a game and he's catching 64% of them. Getting a good QB is not going to change that. Julio Jones has a career catch rate of 63% and Antonio Brown is 66%. Thielen isn't going to magically catch 75% when he gets a QB upgrade. He's just lucky to be getting 64% from a bad QB. I don't think it is sustainable with Keenum, but it is with a better QB. The target rate is only sustainable if he becomes his team's de facto WR1.
Braylon Edwards was once a WR1 with Derek Anderson. Dwayne Bowe was once a WR1 with Matt Cassel. These things happen from time to time.
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Milkman
Footballguy
Bolded I disagree with. Moving to the slot has been huge for Thielen. 2 points more a game huge and that's with him running bad scoring TD's. He is tied for the team lead in red zone targets with Rudolph. Diggs was targeted more in the red zone when he was healthy though 5-4 through 5 games. Small sample and very close so I don't think it tells us a lot really. The big outliers is Diggs/Thielen's TD rate's. Which should over time converge unless you think Diggs is a special red zone threat that is just emerging. I don't but can't really hate someone for thinking that. He is good.
With Thielen's red zone involvement he could easily be a 8-9 TD a season guy....if he had run a little better in the TD department he could easily be WR6-7 right now on a per game basis.......
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