Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (6 Viewers)

[fruity pebbles]

Back to Barkley

offered Mixon, the 1.05 and the 2.02 for the 1.01 and was rejected.

 

[FF Ninja]

I'm not a Keenum (or Bradford) fan really but Shurmur has him playing well and they would at least be competent. Although Shurmur did fail in Cleveland he has shown to have a good offensive mind and would utilize DJ.

As I said from the beginning, I can see your point about Johnson's dynasty value - there is certainly some risks going forward. I just think the talent is apparent as well and if it was not for an injured 2017 this conversation likely does not even come up. Now we have people saying that they would move DJ for the 1.04/1.05 pick which to me is going way to the We keep saying 27 - but we haven't even seen his age 26 season really (he turns 27 in December).

Yeah, I agree that if he had a nice 2017 then he'd be much safer. But that was one of my points - that he's only got 1 season propping up his value. If he can stay healthy (not a given for any RB) and has some sort of 220/850/4 + 60/500/2 season then his value is going to plummet (and people will wish they had taken that 1.04 the year before). It's not a bad season, but won't hold up to lofty expectations and then he'll be 27 during that offseason when trades are being made. I'm not trying to be deceptive about age - I try to keep saying that he turns 27 during the season next year.

I've seen mocks of Chubb (4 years younger) going way past 1.04. It'll be interesting to see a Chubb vs. DJ stock comparison in 12 months. 

All I'm really saying is that I wouldn't touch DJ at his current price and if I owned him, I'd at least be shopping him to see if I can get another player or two that I really covet and/or value similarly. His value is still near its peak and he has the highest probability, IMO, for a steep drop next year (vs. other RBs near his price). 

 

[FF Ninja]

Back to Barkley

offered Mixon, the 1.05 and the 2.02 for the 1.01 and was rejected.

Damn. That seems quite fair. I think it's time to accept you are not going to pry the 1.01 away from that fella. 

 

[fruity pebbles]

Damn. That seems quite fair. I think it's time to accept you are not going to pry the 1.01 away from that fella. 

Yeah, told him that was last and best. He’s willing to deal it but wants the 1.10 instead of the 2.02. Small difference maybe but have to draw the line somewhere.

 

[Pwingles]

We have the benefit of hindsight to see that Goff, the 1st overall pick of 2016, was actually a pretty damn good QB... the OL was vastly improved - largely due to replacing one of the worst linemen in the NFL (Greg Robinson) with one of the best (Andrew Whitworth), and the combo of Woods (forms 2.09 pick) + Watkins (1.04) + Kupp (3.05) was actually quite competent. Last but obviously not least, Sean McVay did a hell of a job as the new HC.

Given how good all those aspects were, I think it safe to say there is less than a 1% chance of the Cardinals reproducing the Rams success. So yes, not impossible, but if I'm trading for a player or doing a startup, I'm looking for better odds than "not impossible". 

Man, this is really tough. I think you gotta put Engram in the top 4 with Gronk, Kelce, and Ertz. I'm going to call that the top tier. People can debate making Gronk his own tier if they want to, but I'm going to keep it simple.

After that, it's a mess. Now that Gates has the TE TD record, I'm guessing he hangs them up which would default Henry into tier 2. I try not to be ageist but I'm disqualifying Olsen, Walker, and Graham from tier 2 and I'm putting Howard and Njoku in there. Might be a year premature on both of them since Brate will likely be back under a cheap RFA tender and who knows when the Browns will get it together. I think Higbee holds Everett back for at least another year so I wouldn't invest in him at this tier. Kittle and Shaheen are intersting. They both should see solid snap share in year 2, but is Kittle even that good? I've got him, but don't know how to value him. I don't think he belongs in the top 12. I think Rudolph belongs in the bottom of tier 2. So before this gets convoluted:

• Gronk
  
• Ertz
  
• Kelce
  
• Engram
  

• Henry
  
• Howard
  
• Njoku
  
• Rudolph (28)
  
• Doyle (27)
  

• Shaheen
  
• Graham (31)
  
• Olsen (32)
  
• Reed (27 - but will he ever be healthy?)
  
• ASJ (25 - seemed to turn the corner this year)
  
• Eifert (27 - see Reed comment)
  

• Hooper (23 - feel underrated here given his )
  
• Kittle (24 - ideal opportunity in 2018, but replacement level talent?)
  
• Ebron (24 - still young enough to develop... see Rudolph career arc)
  
• Brate (26 - shown enough to earn a shot in 2019?)
  

I'm not really a rankings guy, so I'm sure I missed a couple. Apologies.

I think Ebron could be put in group 3 without much debate and I think there could be merit to putting him at the bottom of tier 2

 

[Zyphros]

Back to Barkley

offered Mixon, the 1.05 and the 2.02 for the 1.01 and was rejected.

I offered J. Howard, Thielen, and 1.08 and got declined.  Said he's holding until the "massive overpay comes".  Which made me ask "A RB1, a WR1, and a late 1st isn't an over?" 

It's a 3RB league so it helps Barkley's value a little (same with Howard).  

 

[FF Ninja]

I think Ebron could be put in group 3 without much debate and I think there could be merit to putting him at the bottom of tier 2

Yeah, he could bounce around. We'll know a lot more after he signs a contract. If he signs a cheap 1 year deal, he probably belongs in tier 4. If he gets paid to go to a top landing spot then he probably belongs in tier 2. If he gets paid well to go somewhere mediocre or paid poorly to go somewhere great, then tier 3. 

This is probably a worthless thing to say, but I was researching him last season thinking he could be a value play. I can't recall the details, but I remember reading enough that I was convinced to change my mind and avoid him. Given how things played out this season, I feel like that was the right conclusion and the reason I have him so low, but I don't want to ignore the fact that he's still quite young and other TEs have taken similar paths to success. 

 

[joey]

Yeah, told him that was last and best. He’s willing to deal it but wants the 1.10 instead of the 2.02. Small difference maybe but have to draw the line somewhere.

I said it before and I'll say it again, I'd send Mixon, 1.5 and 1.10 in a heart beat for the 1.1. I want to draft studs and not question marks. The difference between the 1.10 and 2.2 is going to make you not have Barkley on your team? Really? I've made as many "hits" with my 2nd rounders as I have with my mid/late firsts. You just never know. But Barkley is as much of a "yeah, we know" prospect as you can get. Make the deal!!!!

 

[FF Ninja]

I offered J. Howard, Thielen, and 1.08 and got declined.  Said he's holding until the "massive overpay comes".  Which made me ask "A RB1, a WR1, and a late 1st isn't an over?" 

It's a 3RB league so it helps Barkley's value a little (same with Howard).  

Is it PPR? I think Howard had 6 drops this season, so it's probably time to admit that he's never going to be a PPR asset. He's also got a new coaching staff coming in who may not favor his skill set. Thielen was a WR1 this year but is anyone projecting him to be one in 2018 and beyond? I'm just being a devil's advocate here, but also if that was me, I'd probably decline that offer, too, as I don't value those veterans as much as you do, but would really depend on my depth. If say, Tavon Austin, Kearse, and Chris Thompson are currently starters then I probably need to do some sort of a 3-for-1 trade. Finding the right 3-for-1 can really turn a team around quicker than a successful 1.01 pick. 

 

[Zyphros]

Is it PPR? I think Howard had 6 drops this season, so it's probably time to admit that he's never going to be a PPR asset. He's also got a new coaching staff coming in who may not favor his skill set. Thielen was a WR1 this year but is anyone projecting him to be one in 2018 and beyond? I'm just being a devil's advocate here, but also if that was me, I'd probably decline that offer, too, as I don't value those veterans as much as you do, but would really depend on my depth. If say, Tavon Austin, Kearse, and Chris Thompson are currently starters then I probably need to do some sort of a 3-for-1 trade. Finding the right 3-for-1 can really turn a team around quicker than a successful 1.01 pick. 

It is PPR and I understand those concerns just wanted to give another example of declined offers.  I don't think it's an insulting offer, but it has it's question marks.  Howard is still a RB1 without catching passes (finished RB12 in the league, and RB10 last year), but I get people generally don't want him in PPR leagues.  As discussed before he's pretty firmly in that top12 to me and ranking him outside of that is just unfair.  New head coach who is an offensive mind, might end up using him more if that offense takes a step forward.  He might just be a buy low if you're in PPR.  

 

[Raback]

I offered J. Howard, Thielen, and 1.08 and got declined.  Said he's holding until the "massive overpay comes".  Which made me ask "A RB1, a WR1, and a late 1st isn't an over?" 

It's a 3RB league so it helps Barkley's value a little (same with Howard).  

That’d be a decline from me without much thought.  Then again I’m not a huge believer in the futures of Howard and Thielen.  

 

[Pwingles]

Yeah, he could bounce around. We'll know a lot more after he signs a contract. If he signs a cheap 1 year deal, he probably belongs in tier 4. If he gets paid to go to a top landing spot then he probably belongs in tier 2. If he gets paid well to go somewhere mediocre or paid poorly to go somewhere great, then tier 3. 

This is probably a worthless thing to say, but I was researching him last season thinking he could be a value play. I can't recall the details, but I remember reading enough that I was convinced to change my mind and avoid him. Given how things played out this season, I feel like that was the right conclusion and the reason I have him so low, but I don't want to ignore the fact that he's still quite young and other TEs have taken similar paths to success. 

His age and current qb/team situation have me intrigued. He has an upper tier qb in an offense that throws a ton. TEs typically take time to adjust to the NFL, most of the time theyre closer to 30 than 20 before they do. He is way ahead of the curve in this scenario and I feel like he hasnt played his best ball yet. He could be a very good buy low value. He needs to improve on drops tho, it absolutely kills his value. Their lack of run game hurt his value as well i suspect.

All my dynos are TE premium, i dont own him anywhere. If i can get him for a 2nd, or something similar in value, id snap it up

 

[FF Ninja]

I said it before and I'll say it again, I'd send Mixon, 1.5 and 1.10 in a heart beat for the 1.1. I want to draft studs and not question marks. The difference between the 1.10 and 2.2 is going to make you not have Barkley on your team? Really? I've made as many "hits" with my 2nd rounders as I have with my mid/late firsts. You just never know. But Barkley is as much of a "yeah, we know" prospect as you can get. Make the deal!!!!

Totally depends on situation. If you earned the 1.01 (vs. acquired it via trade or lottery) then you probably have a lot of holes and no depth. It would be quite reasonable to make that trade and then turn the 1.05 and 1.10 or 2.02 into veterans during the draft when everyone has rookie fever going strong. That way you are essentially drafting (through trade) a sure thing, not a question mark and filling holes at the same time. Personally, I'd wait it out to see if Cincy addresses the OL, though. Otherwise, Mixon is in for another rough year.

 

[FF Ninja]

His age and current qb/team situation have me intrigued. He has an upper tier qb in an offense that throws a ton. TEs typically take time to adjust to the NFL, most of the time theyre closer to 30 than 20 before they do. He is way ahead of the curve in this scenario and I feel like he hasnt played his best ball yet. He could be a very good buy low value. He needs to improve on drops tho, it absolutely kills his value. Their lack of run game hurt his value as well i suspect.

All my dynos are TE premium, i dont own him anywhere. If i can get him for a 2nd, or something similar in value, id snap it up

Didn't Detroit decline his 5th year option? That's why I'm saying his contract and situation will play a huge role in his ranking - I'm currently under the belief that he's not going to be in Detroit in 2018.

 

[Pwingles]

Didn't Detroit decline his 5th year option? That's why I'm saying his contract and situation will play a huge role in his ranking - I'm currently under the belief that he's not going to be in Detroit in 2018.

Im not sure. Wasnt aware of that if so

 

[FF Ninja]

Im not sure. Wasnt aware of that if so

I just looked it up. You're right. He's on Detroit for one more year. 

 

[joey]

Totally depends on situation. If you earned the 1.01 (vs. acquired it via trade or lottery) then you probably have a lot of holes and no depth. It would be quite reasonable to make that trade and then turn the 1.05 and 1.10 or 2.02 into veterans during the draft when everyone has rookie fever going strong. That way you are essentially drafting (through trade) a sure thing, not a question mark and filling holes at the same time. Personally, I'd wait it out to see if Cincy addresses the OL, though. Otherwise, Mixon is in for another rough year.

It's a dynasty league, so what veterans are going to be available at those picks that aren't old QBs or old WRs that se replacement level. If I earned the 1.1, I want a stud to build around. Not WR3 level vets. Get the stud and draft that value vet you mentioned at your 2.2 pick. Stud Starters win games. Build depth later in the draft and in free agency or lover level trades. But if you have a chance to get a top 5 dynasty RB, why wouldn't you want him on your roster for years to come when only giving up a question mark RB (Mixon) and 2 question mark rookie picks?

 

[ghostguy123]

Given the very decent chance Barkely ends up on the Browns, i am astounded at what some people value him at.  

 

[FF Ninja]

It's a dynasty league, so what veterans are going to be available at those picks that aren't old QBs or old WRs that se replacement level. If I earned the 1.1, I want a stud to build around. Not WR3 level vets. Get the stud and draft that value vet you mentioned at your 2.2 pick. Stud Starters win games. Build depth later in the draft and in free agency or lover level trades. But if you have a chance to get a top 5 dynasty RB, why wouldn't you want him on your roster for years to come when only giving up a question mark RB (Mixon) and 2 question mark rookie picks?

You might be surprised. 1.05 could land you a lot of guys. I'm not saying you've got to be high on each one of these, but I'm guessing you could get someone like Hilton, Corey Davis, Diggs, Baldwin, AR15, or Cooper for 1.05 during the draft if not now. As for the 1.10 or 2.02, you won't get as much but you could get a nice piece. Maybe Watkins, Coleman, or Tate at WR... maybe Hyde or Ajayi at RB. I mean, these guys are not OLD. Mixon, Davis, and Watkins could be a hell of a dynasty core if things fall their way.

If you look at historical rookie drafts, you don't usually "build depth later in the draft." Anything starting in the 2nd round and later is basically a dart throw. I know we don't feel like it when we're doing it, but it's true. The hit rate is poor. Building depth via veterans for draft picks is a legitimate way to build.

 

[FF Ninja]

Given the very decent chance Barkely ends up on the Browns, i am astounded at what some people value him at.  

I know it won't be popular to say, but if the Browns find a QB, they could be a very good offense next year. That offensive line has some names on it... put a QB behind them with Corey Coleman, Josh Gordon, Njoku, and Barkley and we could see an amazing turnaround. Hue Jackson did extremely well with Andy Dalton, AJ Green, a good OL, Eifert, Gio and Hill :X . That's what earned him a HC job.

 

[joey]

You might be surprised. 1.05 could land you a lot of guys. I'm not saying you've got to be high on each one of these, but I'm guessing you could get someone like Hilton, Corey Davis, Diggs, Baldwin, AR15, or Cooper for 1.05 during the draft if not now. As for the 1.10 or 2.02, you won't get as much but you could get a nice piece. Maybe Watkins, Coleman, or Tate at WR... maybe Hyde or Ajayi at RB. I mean, these guys are not OLD. Mixon, Davis, and Watkins could be a hell of a dynasty core if things fall their way.

If you look at historical rookie drafts, you don't usually "build depth later in the draft." Anything starting in the 2nd round and later is basically a dart throw. I know we don't feel like it when we're doing it, but it's true. The hit rate is poor. Building depth via veterans for draft picks is a legitimate way to build.

Yeah, and what I'm saying is that mid-firsts and beyond are all dart throws as well, so if I can turn 3 dart throws into the chance at the best rookie RB prospect since God himself  I guess I make that leap. 

 

[fruity pebbles]

I said it before and I'll say it again, I'd send Mixon, 1.5 and 1.10 in a heart beat for the 1.1. I want to draft studs and not question marks. The difference between the 1.10 and 2.2 is going to make you not have Barkley on your team? Really? I've made as many "hits" with my 2nd rounders as I have with my mid/late firsts. You just never know. But Barkley is as much of a "yeah, we know" prospect as you can get. Make the deal!!!!

I don’t think Mixons any more of a question mark than Barkley. Now I think Barkley is better and has a higher ceiling. But there were a number of people who had Mixon as the #1 RB in last years draft. I saw a lot of that ability last season.

 

[joey]

I don’t think Mixons any more of a question mark than Barkley. Now I think Barkley is better and has a higher ceiling. But there were a number of people who had Mixon as the #1 RB in last years draft. I saw a lot of that ability last season.

Fair enough. Yeah, if you feel like that about Mixon, then you would definitely feel like your giving away 2 rookie picks for no reason to get the same RB in Barkley. I don't feel that way about Mixon. he was in a jumbled mess with Cook, McCaffrey, Hunt and Kamara at the time for me, and I think Hunt and Kamara have separated from that pack, with Cook showing some big flashes before getting hurt. Mixon definitely had some flashes as well this year. But, yeah, I don't feel like Mixon will be in the same tier as Barkley which is why I'm willing to give away Mixon and 2 mid/late firsts for him.  

 

[humpback]

Yeah, I agree that if he had a nice 2017 then he'd be much safer. But that was one of my points - that he's only got 1 season propping up his value. If he can stay healthy (not a given for any RB) and has some sort of 220/850/4 + 60/500/2 season then his value is going to plummet (and people will wish they had taken that 1.04 the year before). It's not a bad season, but won't hold up to lofty expectations and then he'll be 27 during that offseason when trades are being made. I'm not trying to be deceptive about age - I try to keep saying that he turns 27 during the season next year.

I've seen mocks of Chubb (4 years younger) going way past 1.04. It'll be interesting to see a Chubb vs. DJ stock comparison in 12 months. 

All I'm really saying is that I wouldn't touch DJ at his current price and if I owned him, I'd at least be shopping him to see if I can get another player or two that I really covet and/or value similarly. His value is still near its peak and he has the highest probability, IMO, for a steep drop next year (vs. other RBs near his price). 

You obviously feel strongly about him, but it's pretty obvious you're letting your bias skew things. He looked fantastic when he got his chance at the end of his rookie year as well, so it's not just 1 season propping up his value. Besides, that "1 season" was so far above and beyond any other RB that 75% of his production would have made him RB 3 on the season (not a RB 3, the RB 3).

Everyone sees the potential negatives, which is why he is no longer the consensus #1 player in dyno. You seem to be placing a much higher likelihood and impact on the downside, which is fine, but I think he's valued just about right based on what we know right now. There's very likely to be some drop off from 2016, but that was inevitable and is already factored in. IMO, even if Arizona stinks next year like you think, he'll likely sign somewhere else as a free agent and his situation would improve, perhaps quite a bit.

As for your last point, that's common sense and goes for anyone- if you can get players you prefer, make a deal. Time will tell if it works out though.

 

[-OZ-]

Given the very decent chance Barkely ends up on the Browns, i am astounded at what some people value him at.  

Good point and one worth remembering.

I was offered the 1.01 for Hunt and a good wr. I think that's too much but seems in line with what others want.

 

[FF Ninja]

You obviously feel strongly about him, but it's pretty obvious you're letting your bias skew things. He looked fantastic when he got his chance at the end of his rookie year as well, so it's not just 1 season propping up his value. Besides, that "1 season" was so far above and beyond any other RB that 75% of his production would have made him RB 3 on the season (not a RB 3, the RB 3).

Everyone sees the potential negatives, which is why he is no longer the consensus #1 player in dyno. You seem to be placing a much higher likelihood and impact on the downside, which is fine, but I think he's valued just about right based on what we know right now. There's very likely to be some drop off from 2016, but that was inevitable and is already factored in. IMO, even if Arizona stinks next year like you think, he'll likely sign somewhere else as a free agent and his situation would improve, perhaps quite a bit.

As for your last point, that's common sense and goes for anyone- if you can get players you prefer, make a deal. Time will tell if it works out though.

I really don't. Never got burned on a trade involving him. Never had him even in redraft. Never lost a championship to him. Nothing. He's just another player to me. Looking at the rankings I've seen in here and around other sites I just feel like I'm playing an easy game of "which one of these things is not like the other" when looking at the top RBs. To me, DJ stands out as the guy to avoid at his price.

Was he ever really the consensus #1 dynasty player?? Even at just the RB position, I recall there being some debate between Bell, DJ, and Zeke (usually with Zeke being 3rd if ppr format).

My last point was not for people like me who see him as overvalued. My last point was for his owners - if they can trade him for someone they value similarly (not prefer), I think they should do it.

 

[FF Ninja]

Yeah, and what I'm saying is that mid-firsts and beyond are all dart throws as well, so if I can turn 3 dart throws into the chance at the best rookie RB prospect since God himself  I guess I make that leap. 

I feel like you didn't read what I said... mid-to-late firsts can easily be traded for veterans. Even young "veterans" like Watkins and Coleman or established players like Hilton. That's when they cease being dart throws and start being valuable trade assets to fill holes in a roster, which can allow teams to turn the corner much faster.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I feel like you didn't read what I said... mid-to-late firsts can easily be traded for veterans. Even young "veterans" like Watkins and Coleman or established players like Hilton. That's when they cease being dart throws and start being valuable trade assets to fill holes in a roster, which can allow teams to turn the corner much faster.

The problem is that guys like Watson and Coleman have never lived up to their rookie hype yet which is why you can get them relatively cheap two/three years into their careers. There's no guarantees that they are ever more than they have been so far in the NFL - so they're still semi-dart throws themselves.

 

[FF Ninja]

The problem is that guys like Watson and Coleman have never lived up to their rookie hype yet which is why you can get them relatively cheap two/three years into their careers. There's no guarantees that they are ever more than they have been so far in the NFL - so they're still semi-dart throws themselves.

Coleman has had two broken hands in two years. I guess I don't hold that against him as much as others might. Watkins is a big named free agent who is averaging over 1000 yards per ~115 targets. I think it is reasonable to expect him to sign with a team that will give him 115 targets this upcoming season. Plus, they were just two examples. Everyone can pick their own flavor. If you're willing to go up to 27-28 years old, there are a lot of names out there that can be had for 1.05-2.02. I know I'll be perusing the dynasty trades thread to see what I can get for a mid-to-late first. 

But agian, I'm not saying everyone should make that trade. If I had the 1.01, given the depth on my teams, I'd keep it unless I got a crazy, crazy offer. At some point depth stops helping and you need youth + upside. 

 

[joey]

Coleman has had two broken hands in two years. I guess I don't hold that against him as much as others might. Watkins is a big named free agent who is averaging over 1000 yards per ~115 targets. I think it is reasonable to expect him to sign with a team that will give him 115 targets this upcoming season. Plus, they were just two examples. Everyone can pick their own flavor. If you're willing to go up to 27-28 years old, there are a lot of names out there that can be had for 1.05-2.02. I know I'll be perusing the dynasty trades thread to see what I can get for a mid-to-late first. 

But agian, I'm not saying everyone should make that trade. If I had the 1.01, given the depth on my teams, I'd keep it unless I got a crazy, crazy offer. At some point depth stops helping and you need youth + upside. 

totally agree on the last point. I guess my main drive is to always see players on my roster in the Top 5 of any dynasty rankings. Not around 15-20. Watkins and Coleman are currently WR32 and WR34 in FBG dynasty WR rankings, fwiw. I have each of them on different teams, so I'm definitely frustrated by each of them (though upside for each would probably not have me selling either for the 1.10 or 2.2 this year).  That said, if someone offered me Mixon, Watkins and Coleman for the 1.1, I'd jump at the chance to have a top 5 RB on my roster. Could Barkley bust? Sure. But I want the chance to have the BEST players at each position, and that's the upside I think Barkley brings.

Of course all of this is moot since we all know all these opinions are in a vacuum. You actually need to find trading partner to turn any of these ideas into reality, and, sure, I put these deals through the bias of what my dynasty rosters would look like adding Barkley to them, which has nothing to do with anyone else's dynasty roster.

Also, I definitely also have a non-ppr, shallower-league bias since that's the 2 dynasty leagues I play in.

Fun debate either way!

 

[FF Ninja]

totally agree on the last point. I guess my main drive is to always see players on my roster in the Top 5 of any dynasty rankings. Not around 15-20. Watkins and Coleman are currently WR32 and WR34 in FBG dynasty WR rankings, fwiw. I have each of them on different teams, so I'm definitely frustrated by each of them (though upside for each would probably not have me selling either for the 1.10 or 2.2 this year).  That said, if someone offered me Mixon, Watkins and Coleman for the 1.1, I'd jump at the chance to have a top 5 RB on my roster. Could Barkley bust? Sure. But I want the chance to have the BEST players at each position, and that's the upside I think Barkley brings.

Of course all of this is moot since we all know all these opinions are in a vacuum. You actually need to find trading partner to turn any of these ideas into reality, and, sure, I put these deals through the bias of what my dynasty rosters would look like adding Barkley to them, which has nothing to do with anyone else's dynasty roster.

Also, I definitely also have a non-ppr, shallower-league bias since that's the 2 dynasty leagues I play in.

Fun debate either way!

Ah, that explains it. I prefer deep rosters and large starting lineups. If you can start four WR2s and three RB2s, you'll typically do better than a team with a stud RB and stud WR with a bunch of expendables in the rest of the slots. 

 

[fruity pebbles]

Ah, that explains it. I prefer deep rosters and large starting lineups. If you can start four WR2s and three RB2s, you'll typically do better than a team with a stud RB and stud WR with a bunch of expendables in the rest of the slots. 

Yeah I should have been more clear as to league specifics but didn’t want to make it just about me. It’s a 16 team ppr league that starts 2-3 RBs and 4-5 WRs. 

 

[humpback]

I really don't. Never got burned on a trade involving him. Never had him even in redraft. Never lost a championship to him. Nothing. He's just another player to me. Looking at the rankings I've seen in here and around other sites I just feel like I'm playing an easy game of "which one of these things is not like the other" when looking at the top RBs. To me, DJ stands out as the guy to avoid at his price.

Was he ever really the consensus #1 dynasty player?? Even at just the RB position, I recall there being some debate between Bell, DJ, and Zeke (usually with Zeke being 3rd if ppr format).

My last point was not for people like me who see him as overvalued. My last point was for his owners - if they can trade him for someone they value similarly (not prefer), I think they should do it.

IMO you aren't fully appreciating just how good he was (is). In 2016 he scored ~90 more points than the 2nd highest scoring RB in ppr (Zeke). He scored ~180 more points than the #10 RB. More VBD than any other player by a wide margin. Again, even if you project a massive 25% drop off, it still puts him in the top 2-3 RBs. Obviously the gaps aren't as large in non-ppr, but most leagues these days are (at least 1/2).

According to the FF Calculator ADP (and others), he was the #1 overall player entering last year in standard, PPR, and dynasty. His value is a decent amount lower now, mostly due to the uncertainty around the situation, so clearly it's being factored in. Obviously if your guess that Arizona turns into Cleveland and David Johnson turns into Duke Johnson comes to fruition then he'd still be wildly overvalued at current prices, but that's certainly not likely to happen.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Coleman has had two broken hands in two years. I guess I don't hold that against him as much as others might.

I'm not necessarily holding that against him, but it doesn't change the fact that he's still just as much of an "unknown" as the incoming rookie class at this point.

As far as Watkins, he has shown flashes at least and I do believe in his talent but there just may be a reason that even in the league's best offense he was still a fantasy afterthought. I mean Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp were the Rams top two WRs ahead of him - think about that.

 

[FF Ninja]

IMO you aren't fully appreciating just how good he was (is). In 2016 he scored ~90 more points than the 2nd highest scoring RB in ppr (Zeke). He scored ~180 more points than the #10 RB. More VBD than any other player by a wide margin. Again, even if you project a massive 25% drop off, it still puts him in the top 2-3 RBs. Obviously the gaps aren't as large in non-ppr, but most leagues these days are (at least 1/2).

According to the FF Calculator ADP (and others), he was the #1 overall player entering last year in standard, PPR, and dynasty. His value is a decent amount lower now, mostly due to the uncertainty around the situation, so clearly it's being factored in. Obviously if your guess that Arizona turns into Cleveland and David Johnson turns into Duke Johnson comes to fruition then he'd still be wildly overvalued at current prices, but that's certainly not likely to happen.

If you compare most career years, especially those high in TDs, I'm guessing the drop off is more than 25%.

I'm not guessing that he turns into Duke Johnson next year. What I said was if he has a dud year on a bad team he could find himself signed to a RBBC, possibly in a Duke Johnson-esque role, as a 27 going on 28 year old free agent in the 2019 season. He's not guaranteed a featured back role in 2019 just because his resume says he was a fantasy darling in 2016. He'll be competing with guys like Melvin Gordon and Mark Ingram on the market and if half these hyped rookies pan out, there won't be a ton of bell cow jobs around.

Look, if you're an optimistic owner, I'm sure you can put the rose colored glasses on and twist my words or nit pick me to death. I don't care enough to engage each owner in a war of attrition. I'm just saying, as an unbiased observer, he stood out to me in the rankings I've seen as the highest risk to drop significantly in stock price in 12 months. Take a step back and consider the possibility and if you have done that and disagree then go on about your business and we can revisit it in 12-16 months if you're still fired up about it.

 

[FF Ninja]

I'm not necessarily holding that against him, but it doesn't change the fact that he's still just as much of an "unknown" as the incoming rookie class at this point.

As far as Watkins, he has shown flashes at least and I do believe in his talent but there just may be a reason that even in the league's best offense he was still a fantasy afterthought. I mean Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp were the Rams top two WRs ahead of him - think about that.

I'm guessing somebody with a more trained eye than me could break down his 19 games played and glean some information from that 2-year sample despite the poor QB play. I'll be looking for those articles this offseason. Same with Watkins, because I do agree it's weird that Woods and Kupp outperformed him. Maybe somebody's got some answers. But those are risks I'd strongly consider making if I was in a deep league with some glaring lineup holes. But again, those are just two guys I threw out there for this hypothetical situation. I'm sure there are a couple guys you might like that could be had for the 1.05+1.10? Maybe AR15 + Marvin Jones? They both seem pretty underrated. Landry + Thielen?

 

[Crippler]

Not sure on why Watkins but think chemistry because he did not receive very many targets. He would be a want this off-season looking at some charts

i have been looking to acquire Keenan in a league where we started mid year and included rookies in the draft as risk reward. Superflex PPR and he wanted Josh Allen, Nick Chubb, Troy Fumagalli(Te premium), Sammy Watkins and 2 2019 1st for Allen and Goff. 

How much of a tier is Allen if Watkins gets good QB and in system throughout training camp. Offer did not catch my eye really. Kind of like trading Keenan last year for TY Hilton. 

 

[humpback]

If you compare most career years, especially those high in TDs, I'm guessing the drop off is more than 25%.

I'm not guessing that he turns into Duke Johnson next year. What I said was if he has a dud year on a bad team he could find himself signed to a RBBC, possibly in a Duke Johnson-esque role, as a 27 going on 28 year old free agent in the 2019 season. He's not guaranteed a featured back role in 2019 just because his resume says he was a fantasy darling in 2016. He'll be competing with guys like Melvin Gordon and Mark Ingram on the market and if half these hyped rookies pan out, there won't be a ton of bell cow jobs around.

Look, if you're an optimistic owner, I'm sure you can put the rose colored glasses on and twist my words or nit pick me to death. I don't care enough to engage each owner in a war of attrition. I'm just saying, as an unbiased observer, he stood out to me in the rankings I've seen as the highest risk to drop significantly in stock price in 12 months. Take a step back and consider the possibility and if you have done that and disagree then go on about your business and we can revisit it in 12-16 months if you're still fired up about it.

You sure do a lot of "guessing" without actually providing any evidence to base it on.

I know what you said, but quite frankly it's silly. The odds of him having such a terrible year on a team that resembles the recent winless Browns and no one will give him more than a Duke Johnson-type role are so small that it's not a realistic consideration. It's been acknowledged over and over that there are risks, but that's built into his current valuation. These things are dynamic, it will change as we get more information, but as of right now there's no reason to believe that he or the team is going to be so awful next year.

I don't think you quite understand how this works- when you're the one who thinks a player is worth much less (or more) than everyone else, you're the one who is looking at things with tinted glasses and are far from unbiased. I was just trying to figure out the disconnect, but obviously it was futile.

 

[FF Ninja]

You sure do a lot of "guessing" without actually providing any evidence to base it on.

The evidence is readily available. The burden of proof just isn't on me to provide it. You're going to be the bag holder, not me.

I know what you said, but quite frankly it's silly. The odds of him having such a terrible year on a team that resembles the recent winless Browns and no one will give him more than a Duke Johnson-type role are so small that it's not a realistic consideration. It's been acknowledged over and over that there are risks, but that's built into his current valuation. These things are dynamic, it will change as we get more information, but as of right now there's no reason to believe that he or the team is going to be so awful next year.

So you knew what I said, but changed and twisted the words anyway? Clever. 

I don't think you quite understand how this works- when you're the one who thinks a player is worth much less (or more) than everyone else, you're the one who is looking at things with tinted glasses and are far from unbiased. I was just trying to figure out the disconnect, but obviously it was futile.

Oh ok, I gotcha. If my thoughts don't align with the group think in here then I've got a bias? Solid logic. I think we're done here.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

IMO you aren't fully appreciating just how good he was (is). In 2016 he scored ~90 more points than the 2nd highest scoring RB in ppr (Zeke). He scored ~180 more points than the #10 RB. More VBD than any other player by a wide margin. Again, even if you project a massive 25% drop off, it still puts him in the top 2-3 RBs. Obviously the gaps aren't as large in non-ppr, but most leagues these days are (at least 1/2).

I feel like any time someone starts talking about xx% dropoffs it's like the kiss of death for players.

I don't really think it's worth talking about the percentage dropoff from what will, even in a best case scenario, be by far an outlier year in his career even if the team situation hadn't changed for the worse, which it has.  Like I mentioned above I have DJ in my main dynasty and I would consider a 25% dropoff an absolute pie in the sky best case scenario this year.

 

[humpback]

Pretty much all of that is incorrect, I'm sensing a theme here...

 

[joey]

Yeah I should have been more clear as to league specifics but didn’t want to make it just about me. It’s a 16 team ppr league that starts 2-3 RBs and 4-5 WRs. 

ah yeah. that does make a bit of a difference....

but I'll still trade Mixon + 1.5 + 1.10 for Barkley

 

[humpback]

I feel like any time someone starts talking about xx% dropoffs it's like the kiss of death for players.

I don't really think it's worth talking about the percentage dropoff from what will, even in a best case scenario, be by far an outlier year in his career even if the team situation hadn't changed for the worse, which it has.  Like I mentioned above I have DJ in my main dynasty and I would consider a 25% dropoff an absolute pie in the sky best case scenario this year.

I wasn't using it as a basis for projections, more to just give some perspective. He's going to drop off, but he was so much better than the next best RBs that he could have a large drop off and still be a top RB worthy of a top pick.

It's presumptuous to say 2016 is by far an outlier in his career even in a best case scenario, considering it's the only data point we have. It's particularly difficult to make projections for next year without knowing what the team is going to look like, and I generally don't put a lot of stock in things like "ceilings" to begin with, but if you're saying that his is 25% lower, I disagree with that as well. His situation was certainly great in 2016, but it's not like Arizona was some never seen before juggernaut.

 

[BINGBING]

Totally depends on situation. If you earned the 1.01 (vs. acquired it via trade or lottery) then you probably have a lot of holes and no depth.

Or during the start-up auction draft a guy calls you out and says you have the worst team and you tell him put his money where his mouth is and the two of you swap 1st round picks as a bet as to who has a better team and he finishes last while you win the league and also own the 1.02 rookie pick as well BWAAAAHAAAHAAAAA!!!!!!  Rant over.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I wasn't using it as a basis for projections, more to just give some perspective. He's going to drop off, but he was so much better than the next best RBs that he could have a large drop off and still be a top RB worthy of a top pick.

It's presumptuous to say 2016 is by far an outlier in his career even in a best case scenario, considering it's the only data point we have. It's particularly difficult to make projections for next year without knowing what the team is going to look like, and I generally don't put a lot of stock in things like "ceilings" to begin with, but if you're saying that his is 25% lower, I disagree with that as well. His situation was certainly great in 2016, but it's not like Arizona was some never seen before juggernaut.

As much as you are claiming people are overlooking just how good DJ's season was, I think you are overlooking what typically happens after seasons that good just as badly.

Only one player has ever followed up a 2000yd 20TD season with another one.  That being Marshall Faulk in the Greatest Show on Turf.  He did it twice in a row prior to having a QB change (due to lead QBs injury) and his stats dropping by 35% the following year.

Only one other time did a player have a 2000yd 20TD season and not see their fantasy production drop by ~25% or more the following year.  That was Larry Johnson who saw only a moderate dropoff the following year, prior to a coach change the next year, after which he was never really even a useful fantasy player ever again.

Meanwhile LT2, Shaun Alexander, DeAngelo Williams, Jamaal Charles, OJ Simpson all saw anywhere from 25-60% dropoffs following their 2000/20 season despite relatively stable team situations.  Even if we eliminate the 20 TD requirement to get a larger sample size, a majority of guys with 2000+ yard seasons saw at least a 25% dropoff the next year.  Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson, Earl Campbell, Ricky Williams, Shady McCoy, Brian Westbrook, and on and on and on.  Edgerrin James was one to buck the trend, though of course he was playing in a VERY stable (and great) situation.

Of those that saw either a QB or coaching change following a 2000/20 season (much less both), I couldn't find anyone with less than a 35% dropoff.

So yes, only a 25% dropoff for DJ is pretty much a dream scenario.

 

[Biabreakable]

How do you all rank the rookie TEs now? The group looked really promising, still does imo.

Engram clearly did well and is probably the top dog, he has to be a top 5 TE. 

Kittle exceeded expectations. Will he become a top 12 or did he play to his potential as a rookie? 

Howard had a couple nice games and most of us didn't expect him to be startable as a rookie. Is he also top 12?

Njoku suffered more for his team than himself, but the browns haven't shown an ability to improve yet. Kinda figure they have to now but by how much? Seems like he should also be top 12 but that's a lot in the 12... Maybe more top 20 now? 

What about the others? Shaheen had moments, Everett looks like a work in progress, Jonnu Smith could take over for Walker sometime, RSJ flashed. Butt never got going. 

Thoughts on their Dynasty values and expectations?

Well even before they played a down I considered Engram, Howard and Njoku to be tier one TE which for me means having top 12 upside within their first 3 seasons.

No real reason to change that outlook after their rookie years.

Some of the best remaining TE are getting older. Gronkowski still a top guy and he was healthy for most of the year which should check dome of the doubters about his health somewhat. He did miss a game due to stupid move and suspension, but I figure he is still top 5 going into next season and you could still argue for him as 1st overall.

Kelce is certainly in top 5 also and maybe ahead of Gronk now due to age difference.

Olsen had a mostly lost season, but he is still good and likely the best option Cam has in the passing game. Although Funchess did impress me and CMC of course very good receiving option. I see Olsen bouncing back though in 2018. He is older though. Perhaps a good trade target?

Henry deserves some consideration even though he didn't quite build on his rookie year. I didn't really expect him to though as it was so good. Still takes awhile for TE to emerge and Gates was still in the way. If Gates is out of the picture I think that improves Henrys outlook for next season.

I am not a fan of Kyle Rudolph and I am a Vikings fan, but he did pretty well and they do look for him in the red zone a lot, so I see him being in the mix.

I really like Jonnu Smith, but not sure Walker is done yet, so may still need to wait for 2019 before he really gets his shot to shine. I do think he is worth hanging on to though or adding if you can for a decent price. I see him being in the top 12 mix possibly by 2019.

KIttle got a lot of playing time but seemed to fade at the end of the season. I haven't paid much attention to the 49ers to be honest, so I will let some one else talk about him. Its interesting. Maybe after the SB I can try to catch up on him a bit.

I think Everett delivered some big plays. However the Rams other TE played a lot more than him and is a better blocker, at least for now. So not sure what the outlook is. He does not seem to be getting enough opportunity compared to Jordan Reeds early opportunity. Maybe if Watkins moves on that opens up things for a Rams TE to become more involved? I think Goff needs the training wheels to come off. He got exposed by defenses changing their plays once 15 seconds hit and the HC couldn't keep talking to him.

From what I have heard Witten intends to return for 2018. Always overlooked but always in the mix as a top 12 guy and I dont think that changes if he plays again next year.

Jordan Reed is great if healthy. He wasn't very much this year, but always have to consider him if he is. He puts up numbers when he plays.

I am likely forgetting someone important here. Just rambling. Overall the depth at TE is stronger than it has been for quite some time. Due to the great rookie class of 2017.

 

[Biabreakable]

I'm not a Keenum (or Bradford) fan really but Shurmur has him playing well and they would at least be competent. Although Shurmur did fail in Cleveland he has shown to have a good offensive mind and would utilize DJ.

As I said from the beginning, I can see your point about Johnson's dynasty value - there is certainly some risks going forward. I just think the talent is apparent as well and if it was not for an injured 2017 this conversation likely does not even come up. Now we have people saying that they would move DJ for the 1.04/1.05 pick which to me is going way to the We keep saying 27 - but we haven't even seen his age 26 season really (he turns 27 in December).

I just want to add that if it is Shurmur and Keenum (or Bradford to a lesser extent) as the QB. They like to throw short and it seems like a very nice situation for Johnson to get the ball in the passing game a ton because of that.

Bradford is better throwing deep than Keenum. So if it were Keenum, I think that bodes well for high target numbers for Johnson. Either one does, just saying that Keemum leans on the short passing game even more than Bradford, due to lack of arm strength on Keenums part.

 

[Biabreakable]

Yeah, told him that was last and best. He’s willing to deal it but wants the 1.10 instead of the 2.02. Small difference maybe but have to draw the line somewhere.

No need to rush.

Let him kick the tires around a bit. Maybe he changes his mind and comes back to your best offer later on down the line.

I think thats still giving a lot and you might be better off not doing the deal.

Disagree with Joey saying that you should give in. Really not need to rush and you have to draw the line somewhere.

 

[Biabreakable]

As much as you are claiming people are overlooking just how good DJ's season was, I think you are overlooking what typically happens after seasons that good just as badly.

Only one player has ever followed up a 2000yd 20TD season with another one.  That being Marshall Faulk in the Greatest Show on Turf.  He did it twice in a row prior to having a QB change (due to lead QBs injury) and his stats dropping by 35% the following year.

Only one other time did a player have a 2000yd 20TD season and not see their fantasy production drop by ~25% or more the following year.  That was Larry Johnson who saw only a moderate dropoff the following year, prior to a coach change the next year, after which he was never really even a useful fantasy player ever again.

Meanwhile LT2, Shaun Alexander, DeAngelo Williams, Jamaal Charles, OJ Simpson all saw anywhere from 25-60% dropoffs following their 2000/20 season despite relatively stable team situations.  Even if we eliminate the 20 TD requirement to get a larger sample size, a majority of guys with 2000+ yard seasons saw at least a 25% dropoff the next year.  Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson, Earl Campbell, Ricky Williams, Shady McCoy, Brian Westbrook, and on and on and on.  Edgerrin James was one to buck the trend, though of course he was playing in a VERY stable (and great) situation.

Of those that saw either a QB or coaching change following a 2000/20 season (much less both), I couldn't find anyone with less than a 35% dropoff.

So yes, only a 25% dropoff for DJ is pretty much a dream scenario.

Thats interesting and thanks for looking into it.

Johnson has already dropped off by a much larger percentage than that though from the 2016 season to 2017 season due to his injury.

So more what we are talking about here is what Johnson will do in 2018 and how close next season he will be to 2016, which isn't really addressed by all of that.

 

[joey]

No need to rush.

Let him kick the tires around a bit. Maybe he changes his mind and comes back to your best offer later on down the line.

I think thats still giving a lot and you might be better off not doing the deal.

Disagree with Joey saying that you should give in. Really not need to rush and you have to draw the line somewhere.

yeah, well, I'm rubber and you're glue...