Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (7 Viewers)

[bengalbuck]

For sure a lot depends on if you need a WR or RB on your team but in terms of value I think the safe bet is actually the rookie. If Julio is even just a little better than last season and ends up in the low end WR1/WR2 range he's going to lose value.  Most high pedigreed RB's, even when they do next to nothing as rookies, maintain strong value.

I'm not sure how much lower people are on AJ Green vs Julio but just a few days ago I turned down an offer of AJ Green, Drake and 1.9 for the 1.2 and I'd sure have taken that for Julio. This is what I tend to think of as the buying power of the 1.2.

This is an important point. Even if you decide you don't like Guice (or whoever goes #2) after seeing him for a year, he's still going to have pretty decent value unless he completely falls on his face. 

 

[menobrown]

This is an important point. Even if you decide you don't like Guice (or whoever goes #2) after seeing him for a year, he's still going to have pretty decent value unless he completely falls on his face. 

IMO the biggest threat to a young RB losing value is not so much how they perform but what the team does at RB that off-season.  Nothing destroys a young RB's value, or really any RB's value, like a major RB addition by the team.  As long as a RB looks like he's going to get a good role in year two, people will usually easily look past not playing so great your rookie year.

 

[FF Ninja]

I don't dislike Kittle by any means. I had him basically tied at TE8 in dynasty value with Rudolph, Eifert, Olsen, and Doyle (http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=hindery2018marchtradevalue). But I've seen people take him surprisingly high in some recent startups. 

I have a tough time with the 49ers RB/WR/TEs because I am very bullish on the offense in general, but feel like I have to acknowledge that they were really low in talent last year and have plenty of money and draft capital to upgrade their pass catchers going forward. After Garcon went down, it was Goodwin, Kendrick Bourne, Aldrick Robinson, Garrett Celek, Louis Murphy and the Day 3 rookies (Kittle and Trent Taylor). How much of the production for the two rookies was good system and nobody else to throw to? Tough for me to say. Even though Kittle and Taylor made it through FA without any real added competition, the 49ers still have 4 picks in the top-75 and plenty of money for FA in future years. 

I'm not super high on Kittle. Was just saying that almost losing his job doesn't really matter at this point because there isn't anybody left in free agency to threaten his job. Even if the 49ers take a TE at the end of the 2nd round or in the 3rd round, I doubt they pose a big threat to him this year. So he could Brate his way into staying fantasy relevant (plays well enough this year to hold off the higher drafted player next year). 

I wouldn't go after him hard in a startup. I'd make sure to bid him up to close to his AAV, but I wouldn't get in a bidding war for him. There are a lot of intriguing, relatively cheap TEs... if I bid on all of them, I'm sure one or two of them will come to me cheaply. For example, Hooper is actually younger than Kittle. 

 

[NeverEnough]

I'm not super high on Kittle. Was just saying that almost losing his job doesn't really matter at this point because there isn't anybody left in free agency to threaten his job. Even if the 49ers take a TE at the end of the 2nd round or in the 3rd round, I doubt they pose a big threat to him this year. So he could Brate his way into staying fantasy relevant (plays well enough this year to hold off the higher drafted player next year). 

I wouldn't go after him hard in a startup. I'd make sure to bid him up to close to his AAV, but I wouldn't get in a bidding war for him. There are a lot of intriguing, relatively cheap TEs... if I bid on all of them, I'm sure one or two of them will come to me cheaply. For example, Hooper is actually younger than Kittle. 

Which TEs are you eyeing for low risk very high upside this season? I'm trying to get something startable behind Gronk while I can. I am high on Everett, but I don't see him as a viable starter this season either. :(

 

[menobrown]

Right below Ebron for me

They make up my top two as well and kind of hard to believe they are only 6 months apart in age.

 

[FF Ninja]

Which TEs are you eyeing for low risk very high upside this season? I'm trying to get something startable behind Gronk while I can. I am high on Everett, but I don't see him as a viable starter this season either. :(

If I'm doing a startup, I'm throwing some bids out on these fellas (some random consensus rankings in parenthesis):
(9) Njoku
(15) Doyle - likely cheaper after Ebron signing
(16) Hooper
(17) Eifert
(18) Burton
(19) Kittle
(23) Everett

I'm sure rankings will vary wildly from site to site. If Kittle is ranked 8 in some places, I'm sure I won't land him and I'm fine with that. If I had enough roster spots, I wouldn't let Howard go too cheaply. I still like him, but that TEBC scares me. But most of those guys listed has their warts. I'm just betting that if I grab 3-4 of them that one of them will beat the odds and shine in 2018. Higbee is holding Everett back, but the current staff is the one that drafted Everett. I wouldn't be surprised if they unleash him this year or next.

 

[bengalbuck]

FWIW, here are some actual draft results in a TE Premium (super flex) startup pre-FA:

3.05…Kelce, Travis KCC TE

4.07…Ertz, Zach PHI TE

4.08…Engram, Evan NYG TE

4.09…Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE

6.05…Howard, O.J. TBB TE

6.06…Henry, Hunter LAC TE

7.02…Njoku, David CLE TE

8.06…Graham, Jimmy GBP TE

8.09…Olsen, Greg CAR TE

9.10…Kittle, George SFO TE

9.12…Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE

11.06…Doyle, Jack IND TE

12.04…Smith, Jonnu TEN TE

12.07…Eifert, Tyler CIN TE

12.08…Seferian-Jenkins, Austin JAC TE

12.11…Reed, Jordan WAS TE

12.12…Ebron, Eric IND TE

13.08…Hooper, Austin ATL TE

13.10…Walker, Delanie TEN TE

13.11…Shaheen, Adam CHI TE

14.11…Everett, Gerald LAR TE

15.02…Burton, Trey CHI TE

15.10…Brate, Cameron TBB TE

15.12…Clay, Charles BUF TE

16.08…Butt, Jake DEN TE

17.09…Kroft, Tyler CIN TE

18.03…Seals-Jones, Ricky ARI TE

18.11…Higbee, Tyler LAR TE

19.05…Swoope, Erik IND TE

From what I've seen in this draft and others, there's a clear gap from the top 7 to that next tier. Kittle's right near the top of the that tier behind the top-7 in each draft I've seen.

 

[FF Ninja]

There no rookies in that startup... how does that work?

 

[bostonfred]

There no rookies in that startup... how does that work?

I'm assuming they draft rookie picks and haven't had their rookie draft yet

 

[FF Ninja]

I'm assuming they draft rookie picks and haven't had their rookie draft yet

How do you determine the draft order if it is a startup? I'm used to rookies just being part of the player pool. 

 

[bostonfred]

How do you determine the draft order if it is a startup? I'm used to rookies just being part of the player pool. 

1.1 Todd Gurley

1.2 obj

1.3 Ezekiel Elliot 

1.4 rookie pick 1.1

1.5 Mike Evans

Etc

Seems pretty common

 

[FF Ninja]

1.1 Todd Gurley

1.2 obj

1.3 Ezekiel Elliot 

1.4 rookie pick 1.1

1.5 Mike Evans

Etc

Seems pretty common

Oh, I gotcha. I'm dense today.

 

[Aunt Jemima]

IMO the biggest threat to a young RB losing value is not so much how they perform but what the team does at RB that off-season.  Nothing destroys a young RB's value, or really any RB's value, like a major RB addition by the team.  As long as a RB looks like he's going to get a good role in year two, people will usually easily look past not playing so great your rookie year.

could not agree with this more. Just like this upcoming draft, I don't know who it is right now but a couple guys values are going to get decimated based on landing spots of the rookies and sometimes you just don't see it coming. Never trade for a rb unless it is an uber stud until after the draft. Few years ago Mason was coming off that pretty decent year and then they take Gurley and he immediately went to zero value.

 

[saintfool]

Which TEs are you eyeing for low risk very high upside this season? I'm trying to get something startable behind Gronk while I can. I am high on Everett, but I don't see him as a viable starter this season either. :(

Eifert. ASJ. Engram. 

 

[Concept Coop]

Which TEs are you eyeing for low risk very high upside this season? I'm trying to get something startable behind Gronk while I can. I am high on Everett, but I don't see him as a viable starter this season either. :(

Startable, low risk, and high upside?  That only applies to 4 or 5 guys, IMO, and it would be a waste to invest in another one. 

If you have the roster space for 3 TEs, target someone cheap and startable - Clay, Witten, Olson, etc. - and an upside guy like Everett.  

 

[Concept Coop]

@ZWK - how do Julio and the 1.02 (or rookie RB drafted in late 1st) compare in your VBD models? 

 

[NeverEnough]

Eifert. ASJ. Engram. 

I should have specified low cost to obtain lol

 

[saintfool]

I should have specified low cost to obtain lol

Eifert shouldn't cost that much (bad offense, history of injury). Same with ASJ (Bortles, playcalling, mostly unproven). Engram maybe but I think there is a case to be made for cost-adjustment (OBJ returns, for example). 

If you want flyers, WW or lottery ticket options then that's something different.

 

[flapgreen]

Right below Ebron for me

Cool. I may try to move Ebron for something. Don't really want to carry Kittle, Ebron, and Brate. 

 

[Snorkelson]

I drafted kittle in 3/3 leagues. Sold last season for Tyler Lockett in one, just traded for 2.05 in another. We’ll see what I do in the 3rd- it may make sense to keep him in that one. But he is carrying more value as a mid 2nd than most of those other guys. Everett, Ebron, brate, you’re lucky to get a 2nd for imo. 

 

[ZWK]

@ZWK - how do Julio and the 1.02 (or rookie RB drafted in late 1st) compare in your VBD models? 

Julio is 29 and is coming off a string of fantasy WR1 seasons. In non-ppr, 29-year-old WRs coming off back-to-back WR1 seasons have about another 220 VBD left, on average. Probably Julio is a bit better than average for that group (though he might have more injury risk); maybe call it 240? I haven't run the numbers for ppr.

In non-ppr, 240 VBD is roughly the career value of a RB drafted with pick 19 (220 would be pick 23). So that puts Julio roughly equal to rookie pick 1.02 in non-ppr.

In ppr, Julio would presumably be worth more than 1.02 since he catches a lot of passes and Guice/Chubb/Jones/Michel/Penny don't.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I should have specified low cost to obtain lol

So you want productive, low risk, high upside, and low cost? 

I can't think of any off the top of my head but if we find one maybe we can move on to looking for 21 year old RBs who have already made 5 pro bowls and can be had for a 3rd round rookie pick  . 

 

[flapgreen]

I drafted kittle in 3/3 leagues. Sold last season for Tyler Lockett in one, just traded for 2.05 in another. We’ll see what I do in the 3rd- it may make sense to keep him in that one. But he is carrying more value as a mid 2nd than most of those other guys. Everett, Ebron, brate, you’re lucky to get a 2nd for imo. 

Ugh. I have Lockett and would love to move him but he's not worth anything. Maybe I'll try getting Dion Lewis for him. 

 

[Milkman]

Ugh. I have Lockett and would love to move him but he's not worth anything. Maybe I'll try getting Dion Lewis for him. 

Why would you want to move him now? Seattle let two players walk that accounted for 175 targets. At least see if they add a WR early in the draft. If they don't he's in line for a big increase in target share. 

 

[flapgreen]

Why would you want to move him now? Seattle let two players walk that accounted for 175 targets. At least see if they add a WR early in the draft. If they don't he's in line for a big increase in target share. 

Going into his 4th year and still hasn't done much and still the #2. Hard to believe in this guy

 

[NeverEnough]

Eifert shouldn't cost that much (bad offense, history of injury). Same with ASJ (Bortles, playcalling, mostly unproven). Engram maybe but I think there is a case to be made for cost-adjustment (OBJ returns, for example). 

If you want flyers, WW or lottery ticket options then that's something different.

Not in my leagues. All have high tags. I couldn't even get Engram with any deals sending Gronk

 

[Milkman]

Yeah Baldwin is just really good and the connection he has with Wilson is hard to ignore. The injury killed Lockett too. Go watch that play though that he broke his leg and tell me he didn't look special. He was on his way. Just needed targets and now they might be coming even if he isnt quite the same. I still have a little hope.......

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Burton - The Bears have more TE than they need right now so I am not seeing why he is listed close to these other guys. The Bears just giving up on Shaheen or something? Dion Sims is a great blocker who they will keep playing. This guy looks like their 3rd TE to me.

They just gave their 3rd string TE the 6th richest TE contract in the league?  The only guys getting paid more than him are Ertz, Gronk, Reed, Kelce, and Graham.

Obviously things might work out but I'd have to think the intent at least is to use him.  Sims is a blocking specialist that is almost another lineman, who averages 1 target per game.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

What's Kittle's trade value in PPR? I'm trying to trade for him, but having trouble with an offer as my starters are too good to offer & I fear my bench may not do it. Jared Cook straight up for him good enough or bad for me? Maybe offer Everett?

Jared Cook is worthless.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Going into his 4th year and still hasn't done much and still the #2. Hard to believe in this guy

Sounds a lot like Paul Richardson right? Except Richardson really did nothing.

 

[Boston]

Jared Cook is worthless.

I think you are over-ranking him...

 

[Snorkelson]

Rank these rbs (guys you could get with a lateish 1st) ppr dynasty 

mckinnon

henry

lewis (why not both)

ajayi

drake

mccoy

crowell

hyde (fits the bill but no one trading for him atm)

 

[buck naked]

They just gave their 3rd string TE the 6th richest TE contract in the league?  The only guys getting paid more than him are Ertz, Gronk, Reed, Kelce, and Graham.

Obviously things might work out but I'd have to think the intent at least is to use him.  Sims is a blocking specialist that is almost another lineman, who averages 1 target per game.

Exactly. They didn't sign him to be 3rd string. The point was to get weapons for Trubisky ASAP. Shaheen is still developing and Sims MIGHT catch 5 passes.

 

[Boston]

Rank these rbs (guys you could get with a lateish 1st) ppr dynasty 

mckinnon

henry

lewis (why not both)

ajayi

drake

mccoy

crowell

hyde (fits the bill but no one trading for him atm)

McKinnon-unless they bring in a top-tier rookie he could not be in a better position for fantasy success...

Drake-I believe in his talent although I hate relying on a Dolphin...I will assume (always dangerous with Miami) that bringing in Gore means a top-tier rookie is off the table which is fantastic news..

Henry-he will be productive but he is in a RBBC...

Lewis-see Henry...

McCoy-if you are looking to win now he can move up to #2 or #3 on this list...

Hyde-almost can not be ranked until you see what Cleveland does in the draft...already has a quality COP back with him in Duke...add in Barkley and he is toast...add in a Michel or Chubb and it is time to look elsewhere...

Crowell-as of now he has an opportunity to be the lead back in New York...if you are a #1 on any team you will have value...

Ajayi-I actually like him much more for real football than fantasy football...he is a nice fit for what they do...I have a feeling they will add in another solid RB and I am a fan of Clement and think he takes another step this year...just get the feeling there will be a lot going on in that backfield this year...if they don’t add anything else he can make a move up this list but need to see what goes on with the guys above him as well..

 

[az_prof]

Henry--almost every team has a COP and a guy who can fill in if the #1 goes down. Signing Lewis will not reduce Henry's value.  

McCoy

Ajayi

McKinnon Not a believer. As a Vikings fan I have seen him try to be a featured back and he isn't cut out for it.  I fully expect a quality rookie back will be brought in.

hyde: Duke will still get his share and CLE offense is meh

Crowell: starting RB but I don't like the offense

Drake: Not a believer

Lewis: great back but better as a complement

 

[menobrown]

Rank these rbs (guys you could get with a lateish 1st) ppr dynasty 

mckinnon

henry

lewis (why not both)

ajayi

drake

mccoy

crowell

hyde (fits the bill but no one trading for him atm)

McKinnon

McCoy

Dion

Henry

Drake

Ajayi

Hyde

Crowell

 

[Andrew74]

My main dynasty (0.5 PPR) is moving from a 1/2/3/1 to a 1/2/2/1 and a flex (RB/WR/TE).  My leagues are pretty old and this is the first one that’s had a flex (I know).  How does this change strategy?  I can see RBs becoming more valuable vs WRs. 

i have some decent depth and upside at WR (Cooper, Davis, M Williams, Doctson, Westbrook) and 4 of the top 15 picks.  Does the change justify aggressively targeting elite WRs (more so than normal)?

 

[Andrew74]

Rank these rbs (guys you could get with a lateish 1st) ppr dynasty 

mckinnon

henry

lewis (why not both)

ajayi

drake

mccoy

crowell

hyde (fits the bill but no one trading for him atm)

McKinnon

McCoy

Henry

Lewis

Drake

Hyde

Ajayi

Crowell

 

[ZWK]

My main dynasty (0.5 PPR) is moving from a 1/2/3/1 to a 1/2/2/1 and a flex (RB/WR/TE).  My leagues are pretty old and this is the first one that’s had a flex (I know).  How does this change strategy?  I can see RBs becoming more valuable vs WRs. 

i have some decent depth and upside at WR (Cooper, Davis, M Williams, Doctson, Westbrook) and 4 of the top 15 picks.  Does the change justify aggressively targeting elite WRs (more so than normal)?

It does increase the value of RBs relative to WRs, and especially increases the value of RB depth. Guys like Latavius Murray and Jamaal Williams would've been very solid flex starters down the stretch last year, so it's worth trying to collect RBs who have a chance to emerge as their team's lead back for at least a few games.

 

[FF Ninja]

Rank these rbs (guys you could get with a lateish 1st) ppr dynasty 

mckinnon

henry

lewis (why not both)

ajayi

drake

mccoy

crowell

hyde (fits the bill but no one trading for him atm)

Man, that's nearly impossible to do before the draft. 

Henry (23.7) - youngest of the group. PPR upside capped with Dion, but he's the goal line back on a potentially powerful offense. Two years left on contract.
Crowell (25.2) - durable, homerun top gear, and pass catching ability. Hard to get excited about the Jets but a young starter should have value. His contract makes him at risk to have the Jets draft a rookie and plummet his value... but they just traded away their picks that would've been scary. So he seems safe now.
McKinnon (25.9) - I'm a believer but feel like the NFL sees him as a RBBC guy. If SF doesn't take a RB in the first three rounds, he moves to the top of the list. If they do, SF is paying him enough that I believe he'll still get at least 100 carries and 50 rec.
Lewis (27.5) - second oldest of the group, but I could see him sticking around longer than guys like Ajayi and Hyde. If Sproles has stuck around this long, I think Dion could do it. In the meantime, we don't know his role in TEN but it seems safe to assume it'll be good for PPR.
Ajayi (24.8) - like Henry, he probably won't factor in the passing game much and these are PPR rankings. He's also got knee concerns, so I'm not sure how long he'll last.
Drake (24.2) - I'm just not a believer. I think Miami either drafts someone better or they get CJA.
Hyde (26.5) - bad pass catcher and I think Cleveland drafts a talented rookie
McCoy (29.7) - I'm not sure he's got a year left. I'd rather draft a rookie with that late first than gamble on getting one more year out of Shady.

 

[FF Ninja]

My main dynasty (0.5 PPR) is moving from a 1/2/3/1 to a 1/2/2/1 and a flex (RB/WR/TE).  My leagues are pretty old and this is the first one that’s had a flex (I know).  How does this change strategy?  I can see RBs becoming more valuable vs WRs. 

i have some decent depth and upside at WR (Cooper, Davis, M Williams, Doctson, Westbrook) and 4 of the top 15 picks.  Does the change justify aggressively targeting elite WRs (more so than normal)?

Man, they really should just add a flex. That's not very many lineup spots for a 12 team. But you are correct, this increases the value of RB and, to a lesser extent, TE. It definitely hurts WR value. But due to longevity and injury risk, top tier WRs should still hold more value than comparably aged RBs.

 

[Concept Coop]

Crowell (25.2) - durable, homerun top gear, and pass catching ability. Hard to get excited about the Jets but a young starter should have value. His contract makes him at risk to have the Jets draft a rookie and plummet his value... but they just traded away their picks that would've been scary. So he seems safe now.
 

Homerun speed?  Pass catching ability?

 

[-OZ-]

Rank these rbs (guys you could get with a lateish 1st) ppr dynasty 

mckinnon

henry

lewis (why not both)

ajayi

drake

mccoy

crowell

hyde (fits the bill but no one trading for him atm)

My main dynasty (0.5 PPR) is moving from a 1/2/3/1 to a 1/2/2/1 and a flex (RB/WR/TE).  My leagues are pretty old and this is the first one that’s had a flex (I know).  How does this change strategy?  I can see RBs becoming more valuable vs WRs. 

i have some decent depth and upside at WR (Cooper, Davis, M Williams, Doctson, Westbrook) and 4 of the top 15 picks.  Does the change justify aggressively targeting elite WRs (more so than normal)?

Ugh. I hate leagues that start the same number of WR as RB. this change almost kills receivers outside the elite, it's just too easy to get a wr2 in this format. RBs become even more valuable. I don't think it pushes elite receivers at all. Maybe you can load up on other positions after you get your stud WR. 

 

[FF Ninja]

Homerun speed?  Pass catching ability?

I know it sounds crazy. I can't find it now, but I remember it because it shocked me, too - in 2016 Crowell hit 21.98 mph on one of his long TDs. It was one of the fastest touchdowns of the year. I saw it on one of those cheesy "next gen stats" highlight reels. So yeah, even though he didn't have an impressive 40 time, he's got an impressive top gear. Plus, there's this.

And I thought he really did well as a receiver when given the chance in 2016. But I don't have any advanced stats on that. He may have just been accumulating like Hyde in 2017.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I know it sounds crazy. I can't find it now, but I remember it because it shocked me, too - in 2016 Crowell hit 21.98 mph on one of his long TDs. It was one of the fastest touchdowns of the year. I saw it on one of those cheesy "next gen stats" highlight reels. So yeah, even though he didn't have an impressive 40 time, he's got an impressive top gear. Plus, there's this.

I remember this as well - think it was week 2 or 3 - he broke off a 70 yard or so TD run.

 

[Concept Coop]

I know it sounds crazy. I can't find it now, but I remember it because it shocked me, too - in 2016 Crowell hit 21.98 mph on one of his long TDs. It was one of the fastest touchdowns of the year. I saw it on one of those cheesy "next gen stats" highlight reels. So yeah, even though he didn't have an impressive 40 time, he's got an impressive top gear. Plus, there's this.

And I thought he really did well as a receiver when given the chance in 2016. But I don't have any advanced stats on that. He may have just been accumulating like Hyde in 2017.

Those MPG stats are nothing but fluff.  He's not exactly slow and can catch some - but those aren't the traits I'd mention as strengths of his.

 

[FF Ninja]

Those MPG stats are nothing but fluff.  He's not exactly slow and can catch some - but those aren't the traits I'd mention as strengths of his.

You think so? What makes you say that? (about the MPH)

If there's a solid reason, I'm not against just ignoring the MPH stats going forward, but I figured they were the only realistic measurements of top speed and were even more interesting because they're in pads. Nothing at the combine really indicates top speed and nothing at the combine measures for any sort of speed in pads. It wouldn't be a bad idea if they made guys do all their drills in pads. Not sure why they don't. It would add a layer of complexity, but not a very significant degree. I'm starting to go off on a tangent here so I'll move on.

And I didn't mean to imply that Crowell is suddenly DeSean Jackson or Danny Woodhead, just that speed and pass catching are in his repertoire since he's often viewed as solely an early down plodder. 

I remember this as well - think it was week 2 or 3 - he broke off a 70 yard or so TD run.

I looked it up and it was week 2 and 85 yards. I'm not generally impressed with long TDs, as many of them rely more on busted defenses and luck than skill and speed, but the only reason I pointed this one out was due to the high measured top speed.

 

[Concept Coop]

Nick Chubb had the fastest run, per MPH, in all of football last year.  That's why it's worthless.  You pick the fastest split second of a 50 yard run and extrapolate over an hour.  

He doesn't win with speed.  He's a 4.55+ guy.

 

[Biabreakable]

They just gave their 3rd string TE the 6th richest TE contract in the league?  The only guys getting paid more than him are Ertz, Gronk, Reed, Kelce, and Graham.

Obviously things might work out but I'd have to think the intent at least is to use him.  Sims is a blocking specialist that is almost another lineman, who averages 1 target per game.

Trey Burton named an overpaid free-agent signing for the Bears

Burton certainly does not have a track record of performance to justify the contract. He is further along in his career than Shaheen is though. With a new coach perhaps he did not see Shaheen as being good enough? He isn't tied to the player but the front office still is. Burton isn't very tall and I am not sure he will fill the role of Kelce because of that. Shaheen possibly could, not that he would be as good, but at least he could be similar over the middle and red zone threat because of his height.

Trey Burton only played 26.5% of the Eagles snaps in the regular season last year. He only played on over 50% of the offensive snaps twice. Game 9 against Denver when Ertz was out and game 12 against the Rams where Ertz was out again. Denver gave up the 3rd most points to TE in 2017 and the Rams gave up the 10th most.  Burton doesn't do a whole lot all season besides these two games.

In those 2 games Burton had 10 targets 7 receptions 112 yards 3 TD

In the other 13 games Burton played he had 21 targets 16 receptions 136 yards 2 TD

While the Bears certainly paid Burton for what he could do in those two games than any of the other games in his career, I am not sure he will get enough snaps or what kind of targets he will get with the Bears. I could see Sims and Shaheen possibly outsnapping Burton as the Eagles didn't have him on the field that much. No idea if he can block or how well, but not as good as Ertz and Celek anyways.

 

[Biabreakable]

Nick Chubb had the fastest run, per MPH, in all of football last year.  That's why it's worthless.  You pick the fastest split second of a 50 yard run and extrapolate over an hour.  

He doesn't win with speed.  He's a 4.55+ guy.

Yeah when I first heard about that I thought it should be measured feet per second or yards per second for it to be more in scale and more relevant.

Chubb is certainly fast enough though.