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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I agree, no one really wants him, but I wouldn’t give him away. If I could get an early 2nd and get one of my top wr I’d do it but I’ll hold otherwise. He’d be a guy I’d be asking for as a throw in on deals. I don’t think he’ll be some stud but he could definitely get targets, which is the first step to production. A nice bye week filler, flex option, with some upside. Maybe his value will increase if we start talking about him......or do I bash him so I can further depress his value? If only we had an ethics thread....
bostonfred
Footballguy
Didn't Miami add a running back in free agency and another in the draft? I know it's only Frank Gore and kalen ballage but I'm not sure what drake's role will be.
Ourlads lists drake as the backup to gore fwiw.
http://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/MIA
Concept Coop
Footballguy
They had to fill out their depth chart, but Gore and 5th round pick is just about best case scenario for Drake. He’ll get the first crack at the job - and I’m betting on him holding it, health permitting.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Ok. I agree with most of that. That's not quite the same as saying he survived the draft and free agency, though.
- Drake is not the incumbent starter, but he filled in well when ajayi was traded and his backfield mate (who is now gone) was hurt.
- Gore is old, but he just had 963 rushing yards and over 1200 total last year. He's 75 yards behind Curtis Martin for fourth on the all time rushing yardage list and a little over 1200 behind Barry. They may try to give him a chance.
- Ballage might only be a fourth round pick but drake was only a third.
I'm not saying drake won't have a role but I'm not sure what his role will be. I know the big 8 rookies were all drafted to places where they'll have an opportunity to compete right away. So I wouldn't trade 1.5 to get him when there's a higher drafted back from a better class with a more certain role on day one at 1.5. I'd understand the trade if somebody else made it but personally I'd take the 1.5 side pretty easily.
I own drake in one league, 1.8 in another and don't own 1.5 anywhere, but I can say honestly I'd trade drake for any of these rookies and I wouldn't trade 1.8 for him although it would be closer.
I did love what drake did down the stretch - he put up big numbers almost entirely against playoff teams and was used a ton in the passing game - but i always hesitate to over pay for guys who looked good with fresh legs in December.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Once Chubb, Guice, Jones, and Penny go off the board I think there is a bit of a drop off to Freeman, Johnson, and Michel. For me, Drake vs. Freeman is a tough call. I'd slide Drake in front of Johnson and Michel though.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Call it semantics, but I’m absolutely confident saying he survived. Gore isn’t an upgrade over Williams anymore. They got identical contracts, Gore getting a bit less, actually. Ballage was a 5th round pick. Drake survived the process as the starter, despite a typo or miscalculation on the part of ourlads. This offseason was a statement of confidence in Drake by the FO.
I’ll certainly grant your concerns as valid. I’ll grant that I’m taking a pretty big gamble based on a 5 or 6 game sample size. I’ll even grant that this feels a lot like Ajayi a year ago, which was my big miss of last offseason. But watch the tape. Fresh legs doesn’t account for everything he was able to do. Check his PFF grade and advanced metrics. The kid was electric last season when given the chance. There is certainly risk and I’m not here to convince others to value him as highly as I do. But Drake flashed an impressive upside to me and has the opportunity to reach it. I’m in.
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don’t think there is anyone left on the market who scares me, Murray included. Anderson was the last domino for me, personally.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Boston
Footballguy
Agree with this...the x-factor is it is Miami and they are such a bad franchise right now...that being said at the end of last year Drake looked very legit...he really stood out in the game against the Pats (114 yards rushing and 79 receiving) in week 13...adding only Gore and Ballage is a great sign for Drake...things could have been 100 times worse if they added a Guice or a Jones in the draft or a McKinnon or Carlos Hyde in free agency...
bostonfred
Footballguy
See this is reasonable. I don't totally agree about him being safe, but I do agree that he flashed. If I knew he was going to get volume I'd pick him in the second in redraft.
What concerns me is that he had a part time role, flashed in a full time role and then may go back to a part time role. That happens all the time. Coach thinks he's a role player, he's forced to carry the load a couple games, does well, then goes back to the role the coach thinks he should have.
I haven't seen anything that says gase views him as the starter or the lead back or a guy who needs 15 to 20 touches a game. Maybe I've missed it because it's the off season but I would feel way more confident with any sign from the coach.
What I don't want to do is pay starting rb price for a guy who will never get a chance to be a starting rb. If you draft Jones at 1.5 and he has a mediocre rookie season you can still trade him for a boat load to someone expecting a year two breakout. If drake fell back to a part time role, his value would crater.
So I guess I see him as high risk high reward, but i see 1.5 as low risk high reward (because you can usually trade 1.5 for good exit value a year later). And I don't see drake's ceiling as that much higher than 1.5.
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I'd value him at the 7 or later but I am not targeting him as his owners want more. People have mentioned preferring him to Michel, but I'd much rather roll the dice on the guy just drafted in the 1st round this year. While both of these RB's are likely going to be in a time share, and Drake will likely lead his (I think Sony will too unless he totally face plants,) I'd rather have the guy in the time share in New England's offense than the one in Miami. Long-term, Miami's roster and front-office is a mess and Tannehill & Gase are probably both on the hot seat so any new staff changes next few years would have no commitment to Drake. Brady is certainly fighting against father time, but I'm much more confident BB stays and that New England's situation continues to be a huge positive even if the wheels finally come off Brady in the next year or two.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Brady wants to play two more years so he can pass manning for first in the record books. He may also want to outlast brees.
Yards
RankPlayerYdsYearsTm
1Peyton Manning71,9401998-20152TM
2Brett Favre+71,8381991-20104TM
3Drew Brees70,4452001-20172TM
4Tom Brady66,1592000-2017nwe
5Dan Marino+61,3611983-1999mia
Touchdowns
PlayerTDYearsTm
1Peyton Manning5391998-20152TM
2Brett Favre+5081991-20104TM
3Tom Brady4882000-2017nwe
5Dan Marino+4201983-1999mia
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Pwingles
Footballguy
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
He's a very good blocker
David Njoku's Browns rookie report card
“As advertised.”
If I had to describe David Njoku’s rookie season in two words, those would be the two I’d pick.
...demonstrated tenacity and strength as a run blocker, and is already effective in zone schemes. Furthermore, he’s already capable of being deployed inline,
Final 2017 Cleveland Browns Report Card: Tight Ends
Top Grade: David Njoku
Expectations were high for the 21 year old rookie from Miami. Most knew Njoku could handle the pass receiving side of the game, but his blocking is where most were concerned.
...After week eight, the rookie found his groove and improved his blocking to an above average level, and was often seen making they key block to spring a run downfield.
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Pwingles
Footballguy
So you are disagreeing with my statement that Devalve is a better blocker, by posting a blurb where they comment on Njoku being "capable".... got it...
I never said he was devoid of skill or effort in that area. Being willing and capable doesnt make you better than someone else at something.
Pwingles
Footballguy
im willing to change my mind with actual evidence, i did some extra searching and found a chart on reddit that someone took off of PFF
Im not sure if these are overall grades, or some sort of percentage being listed here. But it insinuates that Njoku is a better run blocker, and they are almost identical as pass blockers.
It also seems to insinuate that neither of them are super great, but you can see an obvious gap in the "pass catching" guys and the more well rounded guys.
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/7n2u9x/could_someone_with_a_pff_sub_post_te_run_and_pass/
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Both Njoku and DeValve switched from playing WR so neither of them were considered good blockers. Njoku made the switch only a few years ago and last year he was a 20 year old rookie TE entering the NFL. His biggest concern was blocking but he showed a stark improvement halfway through the year. DeValve wasn't a good blocker and still isn't considered to be a good blocker so I'm not sure where you got that one.
You don't have to take PFF word or Reddit. Here is DeValve saying he needed to improve during his rookie year.
I haven't seen evidence or anyone stating he has improved so I would need more than your word on that one.
The Learning Curve for Rookie Tight Ends
Cleveland tight end Seth DeValve’s “welcome to the show” moment came from a blocking assignment during his NFL regular-season debut: “Brandon Graham, Phailadelphia Eagles, Game 1 last year. That was kind of an eye-opening experience.”
The line between tight ends and receivers continues to evaporate at a steady clip. DeValve actually was a wide receiver in college at Princeton, then shifted positions after the Browns drafted him with pick No. 138 last year. He caught 10 passes for 127 yards as a rookie.
“[Blocking] is the thing I’ve done the least,” DeValve says, after making two receptions in the Browns’ preseason opener. “Route-running I did in college, three-point stance blocking I didn’t do a whole lot of.”
he’s becoming a real dual threat out there
Njoku has been part of a rotation with Telfer and Seth DeValve and will never be a full-time player until he improves as a run blocker, but there have been signs of growth.
“His blocking has improved,” left guard Joel Bitonio said. “He’s had some struggles there, but he’s working on getting his hands inside, he’s doing a better job and I think to be a truly dynamic tight end, some of the greats, they can block and catch, and he’s becoming a real dual threat out there.”
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kutta
Footballguy
So you’re at the 1.05. I’d put Michel in that group, and add in Barkley and we are right at the 1.06. Just doesn’t seem like a big difference between 1.04 and 1.06 to me this year.
MAC_32
Footballguy
A New England running back is strike one. One with a fumbling problem is strike two. And his medical is strike three.
Someone else will draft him before I'm ready. I think he's more talented than Freeman and Johnson, but those three things spook me enough to lump him in with them and not RoJo/Penny.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I think DeValve is under appreciated and could be on a Trey Burton-like arc, but...blocker? No. No, no, no, no, no.
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
while all the above is true, if you are a gambler he has by far the highest ceiling outside of Barkley and that makes him very tempting
Pwingles
Footballguy
you guys are probably right, im sure there was a narrative i was falling into and assumed to be true.
as far as Michel, i dont know how anyone could love his spot, like you pointed out, fumbles, trust in a NE RB, bone on bone, pass
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
On Michel all I'll say is NE hasn't had a stud rb in a long time. Michel also has 3 down ability. NE is one of, if not the highest scoring offenses in the league. I don't see anyone knocking Ajayi for his bone on bone any longer, and fumbles are a risk but I can't imagine that won't be a focus all summer.
I'm not saying it isn't risky, it is, but to not see the upside you must be wearing some very dark shades
flapgreen
Footballguy
Well, somebody accepted an offer. Traded him for the 30th pick and took Chark. I'd rather chance it on the unknown than on a guy who's never going to be anything more than mediocre.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It would need to be at least a two year plan for Gore to catch Sanders. He is not rushing for 1,200 anymore.
Pwingles
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Wouldn't those three "concerns" be negated by the fact that New England spent a first round pick on him? Spending a first round pick on a player usually indicates your medical review came back clean and you plan to use him.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I want to think so, as I'm a big Michel fan. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Burkhead and White keep their roles, with Michel only getting Lewis' touches.
I don't buy the medical issues, however.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Lewis was used fairly heavily in the second half of the season. I do believe that White and Burkhead will still see be used in their role, but I also expect that Michel will see 12-15 carries a game and some work in the passing game.
kutta
Footballguy
Exactly. If I recall correctly, Lewis was the number 5 RB the last 8 weeks of the season. That's pretty darn enticing.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
Good point. I didn’t really look at the numbers, just remember hearing that.
If you go from week 10 to 15 when Burkhead was playing, Burkhead was RB 9 and Lewis was RB 14
MAC_32
Footballguy
Minimized, sure. Which is why I'm not getting crazy with my rankings. But Penny and RoJo were drafted in the same neighborhood, are arguably as or more talented, and in more stable environments. If presented with an either or I'm not sure what order I'd put Freeman, Johnson and Michel but I also don't need to figure that out - someone else will like Michel before my first 5 backs are off the board anyway.
Lewis out-touched him, but Lewis only got 3 redzone TD's to Burkhead's 7 redzone TD's (5 of them from inside the 3.) Certainly a fantasy concern for Michel for the next 2 years.Good point. I didn’t really look at the numbers, just remember hearing that.
If you go from week 10 to 15 when Burkhead was playing, Burkhead was RB 9 and Lewis was RB 14
To be fair, Michel is quite a bit bigger than Lewis. He might not lose out to Burkhead at the goal line.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
If I have one pick I’ll take someone else, but if I have 2 early 1sts I’ll roll the dice on michels upside.
Plus considering Lewis' history of getting banged up, they may not have wanted to risk using Lewis at the goal line during the regular season either.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
That narrative got legs one year ago when Seth bulked up because he knew he had to improve his blocking. It was reported he bulked up so it was assumed he was changing roles to become an in-line blocking TE and that David Njoku would become the flex/move TE.
Seth DeValve bulking up to change roles with David Njoku now in Cleveland
Jared L@JaredL77
Hue Jackson in a interview on Cleveland Browns Daily just said that Seth Devalve is in at 260+ right now. His listed weight in 2016 was 245.
2:17 PM - May 4, 2017
-------------------------------
DeValve quickly lost that weight, Telfer continued to be the in-line blocking TE and Hue pushed Njoku to become an all-purpose TE who could flex and block in-line so that when he was on the field he would not tip-off the defense on what the play was.
mcintyre1
Footballguy
This might be too boring for this thread, but what do people think of Marvin Jones / Golden Tate? I'm stuck with both of them as third wide receivers and I've had no luck at all moving them. I think I prefer Tate due to target share, but Tate's contract is up in 2019 and Jones is signed through 2021. Doubt Tate ends up as a target leader under his next contract. I've seen lots of trades of people buying Kenny Golladay, but I really don't see it with him. Didn't like him all that much as a prospect and he didn't actually do much last year outside of that one big game.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I prefer Marvin Jones out of those 2 but they seem like a 1a 1b guys in that offense. They are both undervalued in the trade market though. I doubt you could sell for more than a mid 2nd at best. That goes for both of them.
tkrull
Footballguy
NeverEnough
Footballguy
I was offered D. Parker & A. Collins for Juju in dynasty PPR (I need RB help with only Ware & a bunch of crap behind Ingram & Fournette) and declined. Am I overvaluing Juju?
Both are nice players to have as your 3rd WR, so this is as "first world problems" as fantasy football gets. Last season they finished WR15 and WR16 in PPG (that includes OBJ and his four games at WR3). So I don't know why you'd want to move one of them. If the market isn't hot for either one, I'd keep the extra guy as an injury contingency plan or flex. Personally, I prefer Marvin. He's a bit younger (1.6 years) and has room to grow in that he only saw 107 targets last year. He would only need a mild increase in targets to sneak into the low-end WR1 range. He did accomplish his high PPG via 9 TDs, but being both the deep threat and the best jump ball WR on a team likely to throw 30 TDs, it should be safe to project 8 for him.
Tate is riskier due to the contract, but I would expect the Lions to extend him. They've got a good thing going with that duo and he's not old enough to kick to the curb, as long as they don't have to overpay market value for him. The free agent market did get a little crazy this past offseason, so Tate might want to test the market.
Like you, I'm not sold on Golladay at all. He was a preseason hype darling that had two touchdowns on 7 targets in week 1. The perfect storm. He's still riding that wave, but he's just an overpriced flyer, IMO. I'd be shopping him hard if I owned him. But with a lack of a legitimate TE, there should be some spare targets sitting around this year that he might get.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
No. Opposite. I would need dramatically more to move Juju. I'd rather hold and shop for something better. A lot better. And I do like Parker and Collins a bit.
Marvin Jones, Tate and Golladay should all be viewed as starters for the Lions. Golladay should not be viewed as a backup, he'll play starters snaps.
I did not think so at the time in hindsight the Lions made a great FA signing with Marvin. Not sure why he tailed off so bad in 2016 but he is all they hoped for when they paid him. But I think he peaked and I'll say that because he was super efficient and I don't see more targets coming his way in large part because I think the Lions will pass less if they get the running game going.
Tate is as consistent as they come. He is the one of the 3 I'd want next year . Obviously 2 years older than Marvin and in last year of his deal but last I read a few weeks ago the Lions want to retain him. I"d actually prefer him in dynasty then Marvin as well even if he is a little older, just think a slot WR will age better than a deep threat.
I'm in the Gollady is legit camp. You say he did not do much and I say he was a rookie who battled hamstring issues all year and he did have 3 straight games with a 40 yard catch. But put stats aside this is an eye test as much as anything and he passes with flying colors. I may not know much but I feel like I know talent when it's staring me in the face and to me his talent jumps out.
If I need a WR in 2018 I'd take Tate followed closely by Marvin. If I don't need a WR in 2018 I'll take Golladay.
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