Concept Coop
Footballguy
What would you have paid a week ago? A late 1st seems like a whole lot for a guy who was a 3rd round rookie pick a year ago and didn’t produce much year 1.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I threw out offers of a 2nd in two leagues. Wouldn't pay a 1st either.
But I think everyone on the Titans gets a pass for playing in the exotic buggy whip offense.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I would have led with less, but only because I was more likely to get away with it. I have been offering a 2nd to the owner since last June in my PPR league. Now one thing I keep forgetting is that most of my leagues are 16 man and including the one I'm talking about, so that changes valuations of that range quite a bit. But yeah, I'd give an early future 2nd in 12 man pretty easily. That's the Kirk/Gallup/Ballage/Hines tier.
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
How do you view Thielen vs DBaldwin?
I am torn on this one. I have been a Thielen owner before the blow up last year, but I am not a fan of Cousins. Thielen is on year younger than Baldwin, but Baldwin has Wilson throwing to him. Is this one just a matter of preference?
Thoughts?
P.S. This doesn't really affect my lineup at all as both would be on my bench being Hopkins and KAllen.
I am torn on this one. I have been a Thielen owner before the blow up last year, but I am not a fan of Cousins. Thielen is on year younger than Baldwin, but Baldwin has Wilson throwing to him. Is this one just a matter of preference?
Thoughts?
P.S. This doesn't really affect my lineup at all as both would be on my bench being Hopkins and KAllen.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Anyone moving AJG in PPR? I'm looking to move him for a RB & WR combo. What type of combo is he worth?
Obviously, I'd be downgrading with whatever WR I got in return, but if I can add a weekly starter RB without killing myself at WR, I need to do it.
Maybe I should move Adams or K. Allen or Juju instead?
Obviously, I'd be downgrading with whatever WR I got in return, but if I can add a weekly starter RB without killing myself at WR, I need to do it.
Maybe I should move Adams or K. Allen or Juju instead?
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oldmanhawkins
Footballguy
I’ve offered a future 2nd and was declined without counter. I thought it was a Solid offer, wouldn’t pay a first until I see production
Zyphros
Footballguy
I just picked Taywan up off waivers in a 10 team 25 roster league. I'd snap accept a future 2nd so I could use that roster spot on someone else since my WR's are deep and it's instant value (even if it might go up).
EBF
Footballguy
For me Taylor is in the category of "worth owning, but not worth giving up anything to get."
It's not that he's bad or hopeless, but there's really just nothing obviously special enough about him that would induce me to give up even a 2nd round rookie pick for him. 2nd round rookie picks aren't exactly gold. If you go back and look through your league's history, you'll see that pretty quickly. Still, those picks can become people like Carson Wentz, Rob Gronkowski, David Johnson, Hunter Henry, Kenyan Drake, Cam Newton, and Eric Decker. Over the years, you will definitely hit on a few of these picks. In order to trade away that lottery ticket, I'd have to feel like the player I'm getting back is more than just another ho-hum prospect.
I thought Taylor was okay out of college, but not special. Below average height and length. Fast, but not elite movement. Actually, he seemed like a natural Kendall Wright replacement. Look at what Wright did in Tennessee and what he's worth now. He had one useful FF season and bottomed out pretty fast. The league can be pretty unforgiving for guys who are good, but don't have a lot of special traits. That's why I'm not on the bandwagon for someone like Anthony Miller and it's also why I'd treat Taylor as more of a good waiver option than someone I'd want to give up actual capital to acquire. If you look at what the opportunity cost of dealing a 2nd-3rd means, this year it would've been missing out on someone like Hayden Hurst, who I think is a strong prospect. Rather have him than Taylor.
Hard to say who will be in the 2019 draft, but I suspect there will be some names there in the 2nd-3rd that I like more than Taylor. So while I'd definitely roster him if he were on waivers, I think he's only worth a late 3rd-early 4th in terms of what I'd actually spend on him.
It's not that he's bad or hopeless, but there's really just nothing obviously special enough about him that would induce me to give up even a 2nd round rookie pick for him. 2nd round rookie picks aren't exactly gold. If you go back and look through your league's history, you'll see that pretty quickly. Still, those picks can become people like Carson Wentz, Rob Gronkowski, David Johnson, Hunter Henry, Kenyan Drake, Cam Newton, and Eric Decker. Over the years, you will definitely hit on a few of these picks. In order to trade away that lottery ticket, I'd have to feel like the player I'm getting back is more than just another ho-hum prospect.
I thought Taylor was okay out of college, but not special. Below average height and length. Fast, but not elite movement. Actually, he seemed like a natural Kendall Wright replacement. Look at what Wright did in Tennessee and what he's worth now. He had one useful FF season and bottomed out pretty fast. The league can be pretty unforgiving for guys who are good, but don't have a lot of special traits. That's why I'm not on the bandwagon for someone like Anthony Miller and it's also why I'd treat Taylor as more of a good waiver option than someone I'd want to give up actual capital to acquire. If you look at what the opportunity cost of dealing a 2nd-3rd means, this year it would've been missing out on someone like Hayden Hurst, who I think is a strong prospect. Rather have him than Taylor.
Hard to say who will be in the 2019 draft, but I suspect there will be some names there in the 2nd-3rd that I like more than Taylor. So while I'd definitely roster him if he were on waivers, I think he's only worth a late 3rd-early 4th in terms of what I'd actually spend on him.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think Green might be at the point in his career where he offers you more value riding him into the ground than trading him. That varies league to league, so by all means shop him.
I think Juju is actually undervalued, so I'd hold.
That leaves Allen or Adams for me. Downgrading to Diggs/Theilen/Landry/Cooks might get you someone like Ingram or Drake.
EBF
Footballguy
If not for that monster contract extension, I'd be a little bit leery of Adams. Never really saw him as an elite talent and after four years with Rodgers as his QB he still hasn't recorded a 1000+ yard season. TDs have propped up his value a bit and when you think about Graham coming into the picture, you wonder who's going to be the first option in the red zone. On the other hand, GB got rid of Nelson and has almost nothing else at WR besides the ghost of Randall Cobb. Adams almost has to produce by default. I'm not predicting imminent dropoff and I'm generally a fan of investing in WRs who are tethered to an elite QB, but in a vacuum I don't think Adams is on the same talent plane as a lot of the people he's ranked alongside in dynasty (i.e. Hill, Green, Julio, Hilton, etc). That scares me a little bit. I know I'm in the minority here, but I wouldn't trade JuJu for Adams in a dynasty.
I could see either way on this one, but Thielen had a few things go his way last year that I think are worth mentioning:
1) The aggregate Minnesota QB ranked 10th in fantasy passing points. So while anyone will see Cousins as an upgrade, it is a very real possibility that Minnesota actually regresses in fantasy points through the air.
2) Diggs got injured. I know this happens every year, but should Diggs ever stay healthy for a season it will certainly hurt Thielen's numbers. In the two games Diggs missed last season, Thielen had 25 targets and 14 receptions.
On the other side of things, Thielen is actually TWO years younger than Baldwin.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I agree on both points. It's worth pointing out, however, that Thielen's TD rate was really low last season. He could make up for a dip in receptions and yardage with a few extra TDs.
ex-ghost
Footballguy
Price check on David Johnson? Long standing league is adding a flex position, only TE or WR. This radically changes rosters. What WR or TE would be worthy? I am thinking it must be OBJ/Antonio Brown level and maybe a bit more (draft pick, mid-level player, etc)?
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kutta
Footballguy
It’s going to be tough to get great value for him with this new offense. I believe he will still be super studly, but there’s risk there that people won’t be willing to take while giving up an Uber stud with no risk.
Your best bet might be to wait until week 4-6 or so and hope he’s rocking and then you can get full value.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
DJ and K.Allen went for Fournette, D, Adams, 2nd in a league of mine. I had just turned down his DJ for my Kamara.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Is there a different thread for ranking the rookie RBs for dynasty at this point? Or can that be here?
Zyphros
Footballguy
If you're selling him, you simply won't get top dollar. Too many questions surrounding him and the new offense they have. He's still tier1 for me, but I wouldn't expect him to be able to fetch any of the other players in tier1. That drops me down to tier2. There's a few guys in there that I could see myself taking that offer. I'd accept offers of Keenan Allen, Michael Thomas or Mike Evans. Those are my WR3-5 btw. Other than that, I'd need some sort of combo package. I own DJ in quite a few different places so this has been a fun thought exercise.
ex-ghost
Footballguy
joey
Footballguy
I'll personally accept dynasty rankings in any dynasty thread on the board. I’m not picky. I love seeing people's rankings and, especially, the ensuing conversations that the rankings evoke. So go for it!
ex-ghost
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
ex-ghost
Footballguy
Yeah, that is the big catch for me. And I am the opposite of you, mostly - never have played ppr, but would like to.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
well, i did find this thread: https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/769074-have-your-rookie-rbs-rankings-changed-in-dynasty-leagues/
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Price check on Corey Clement?
... Ajayi owner is inquiring. I think selling now, would be at his lowest value. Next year if the chips fall the right way - he could be looking at the starting job IMO.
How are you guys valuing Clement currently?
... Ajayi owner is inquiring. I think selling now, would be at his lowest value. Next year if the chips fall the right way - he could be looking at the starting job IMO.
How are you guys valuing Clement currently?
Zyphros
Footballguy
Here is the group I have him ranked closely to.
Jamison Crowder, Cooper Kupp, Marquise Goodwin, Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Crabtree, Calvin Ridley, Julien Edelman
Tevin Coleman, D'Onte Foreman, Jay Ajayi, Tarik Cohen
Dallas Goedert, Adam Shaheen
I wouldn't take any one of them straight up because I want to "win" the trade. I view these as lateral. The only reason to accept a lateral move for Clement is if it fills a hole. That's how I view trades at least. Most of these guys in rookie drafts are early/mid 2nds, and I view them all near that price tag. I'd say early 2nd MIGHT get it done with some owners, for me I'd need a little sugar on top of that 2nd as well. I've been pumping Clement for months now though.
*Saying all this as an Ajayi hater though
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I think its borderline insane not to take one of Kupp, Kirk, Ridley, or Coleman for him. Maybe Crowder. Its ridiculous to value him that highly imo. I don't care how good he's looked in limited action, its crazy to value an unpedigreed RB in a 3-way RBBC that highly, to me.
If I were win now it would be tough to turn down Fitz. Maybe Edelman.
Goedurt is close too.
I'm confused why Foreman is ranked up with most of those names for you but I haven't fully been following his recovery.
If I were win now it would be tough to turn down Fitz. Maybe Edelman.
Goedurt is close too.
I'm confused why Foreman is ranked up with most of those names for you but I haven't fully been following his recovery.
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Not sure if this is helpful, but I just offered Clement and pick 3.07 in exchange for pick 2.12--trying to move up to grab Josh Rosen. Clement holds little value on my team since I have so many RBs, but I think it will be telling if the trade is rejected, meaning that Clement's value isn't great.
eta; offer was rejected.
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Zyphros
Footballguy
For me, it definitely isn't a slam dunk to take any of those WR's over Clement. Clement was a standout in college and people wondered how he didn't get drafted. It would depend a lot on team makeup in a draft at that point, but like I said, I'm not an Ajayi fan and Clement in year 2 seems like a breakout candidate while any of those other WR's aren't going to command #1 value. Those types of guys are usually very replaceable.
They could turn into more, but I think those chances are pretty slim for all of them to do that. I'd rather take my shot on a 2nd year RB that has a bad Ajayi who will be a free agent after this year. Now's the time to plant your flag on Clement if you believe.
northern exposure
Footballguy
How are people valuing Amari Cooper in 12 team non-ppr leagues? I made an offer that included Jeffery and the counter seemed like an overpay to me.
northern exposure
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
Have very little faith in most of those names. May seem extreme, but to me Tate is worth a 2nd rounder for contending rosters and I wouldn't give up any value for the rest. That's not to say they have no value, but they're just players that I'd never want to give up high draft picks to acquire. Those 800-900 yard types just don't offer enough value over replacement to really warrant any expenditure unless you're getting them dirt cheap. Ideally you'll have better players on your squad already.
That they're rated so high on some dynasty lists just speaks to the lack of depth at WR right now. I'd rather keep my picks or pay less to get someone with similar prospects like Goodwin or maybe P Richardson.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Funchess is the only one I'd want to possibly buy. Guy is only 24, has gotten better every year, and about to be a free agent. He could be a Jeffery type of free agency signing for a team. Even him though, I wouldn't pay more than an early 2nd. Those guys are just replaceable pieces to a roster like EBF said. He's the only one with stud potential in my mind and he's plenty young enough to achieve it so it's worth that risk to pay for him. But the others? I'll take my chances keeping my picks rather than doing the one thing that will cripple any dynasty team: trading for age.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Here's what I believe. 1) Clement is the best RB on the roster. 2) Ajayi will get run into the ground this year because the team won't resign him. I don't think Clement is good enough to counteract this strategy. Ajayi played well as an Eagle and likely will continue to have motivation to run hard. 3) The Eagles will always be a RBBC as long as Doug P is coach. 4) Sproles will retire this year no matter what, and the other RB on the roster have no value. So while it's a "sell low" point, you're still looking at low name value for him next year as a vet starter with likely a rookie on the roster. Look at where Drake and Collins are in drafts this year (late 5th/early 6th), that is likely his trade value upside next year. And if he gets hurt or doesn't perform as well, he could drop to a 10th round value or later, about where he is now.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Tate may play less snaps this year in favor of Golladay. I have tried to move off him in the one league I own him for much lower ranked WR but no action yet (in PPR). I would take a 2nd for him in any format.
Hogan I liked a lot when you could buy him cheap. I still think there's a buy opportunity based on comments here, but probably not at his ADP (top 75 overall). I think he's the only one with short term (or any) upside. I would not sell for any 2nd, and wouldn't expect anyone to offer a 1st.
Stills does nothing for me. One dimensional on a bad offense. I would take a 3rd if I felt I could do something with the roster spot.
Funchess is someone I drafted a lot due to the disparity between his NFL draft position and rookie ranking. I have a positive outlook for him but would move off him in some leagues to hedge to similar players like Agholor, Njoku, or Mike Williams. Another case where a 2nd is probably too light, but may take a chance if it looked early.
Quirky 8-team league with deep starting requirements (2QB, 4RB, 6WR, 2TE, FLEX). So kind of like a 16-team league in terms of QB and TE depth.
Curious about 2019 pick values on the bottom tier starters like Hooper, Kittle, Gesicki, ASJ. (Footballguys’ 13th to 16th ranked TEs.)
Curious about 2019 pick values on the bottom tier starters like Hooper, Kittle, Gesicki, ASJ. (Footballguys’ 13th to 16th ranked TEs.)
NeverEnough
Footballguy
I think that's too much. I tried to get him for a little less & was denied. So maybe I'm crazy?
I would probably keep Lockett vs. a 2nd at this point, but it is in the right ballpark. If I was deep at WR or in a rebuild I might take the chance if I was certain the pick was high.
Lockett is a sufficiently high variance player to leave a lot of uncertainty in his true value. And he’s been around long enough that he has likely migrated to the rosters of owners who most value his upside. Which means he is going to be hard to trade for, and almost as hard to trade away.
Zyphros
Footballguy
He's a depth add if anything, I try not to pay near ADP value for guys like that. I wouldn't buy for a 2nd. I probably wouldn't sell for a 2nd if I owned him either though. He's the type of piece that's a juicy throw in for some sort of upgrade rather straight up for a draft pick.
I kind of doubt many people are willing to pay a 2nd or that anyone would give him up for less than that. His value is in a holding pattern. I think he's better than Richardson, so I see some upside for him this year, but nobody knows if he's going to win the WR2 job or if Marshall or Jaron Brown will claim it. The other thing going for him is free agency. Maybe he can find someone willing to give him some targets next year.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Price check on James Connor, for PPR dynasty. How about his value vs Ekeler?
I like Conner over Ekeler, just because I don’t trust that Bell will come in this late and then make it full strength through a long season.
If Bell is out, Conner immediately becomes a feature back, and a fantasy RB1 in favorable matchups. I fear that if Gordon goes down, Ekeler still splits roles with another back...not sure that LA sees him as a potential feature back.
The one edge Ekeler gets is as a bye week fill-in. I expect he will outproduce Conner week by week this year, provided Bell and Gordon are both playing. Ekeler has a defined role, while the Steelers have shown a willingness to run all Bell, all the time.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I agree Conner is a better play and most of what you said but 1) I don't see any RB on SD's roster who would help out Ekeler if Gordon is absent which makes Ekeler an interesting case. 2) I wouldn't ignore Stevan Ridley's presence in PIT. Even if he is cut after the game this week, he's still on speed dial if Bell gets hurt, and would get carries.
Zyphros
Footballguy
In competitive leagues, he's very likely owned already. However I'm in 3 FFPC leagues, and in 2 of them Conner isn't on a roster at the moment. I fully expect him to be claimed in the first run at waivers but Ekeler is available in ALL the leagues and I don't see him being claimed unless it's for handcuff purposes for the Melvin owner.
To simply put it, Connor > Ekeler. Price wise, I doubt you could fetch a lot for either as they are so unproven and their owners likely will just wait to see what happens with them. Better to lose their value on your own roster, than blow up on someone else's when you sold cheap.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Ugh, I need a runner, as my current stable is DJ, Drake, Martin, Hyde, Kerryon Johnson, Clement, Ekeler, Connor. Start 2 or 3. Originally, other party was willing to offer Barber/Ronnie Harrison (Safety) for Ekeler, now he's moved to Connor.Zyphros said:
Question is do I ride with Drake as RB2, with someone like Hyde as my flex, or lose the lottery ticket to have Barber as RB2/3.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
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