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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (4 Viewers)

FF Ninja said:
I assume one of these is a typo?

Neither guy is getting very many targets, so it's really hard to say which is better, especially as rookies.
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35 % snap share for Andrews vs 32% snap share for Hurst.  I meant Andrews gets more looks as well as has looked the part.  

37 targets, 26 catches for Andrews 14 targets, 7 catches for Hurst which part of that is injury related.  

 
BearsFan4Life said:
Any dynasty deals for Kareem Hunt out there?

I was offered Hunt, Gronk, Rudolph and a #1 Rookie Pick (#13 next year) for Kelce and MBrown (other owner has Gurley).

I rejected the offer. Just skiddish if Hunt doesn't play and Gronk retires.

Just curious if Hunt owners are dealing him or sitting on him.  
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I was offered John Brown in one offer and Robby Anderson in another. Easy declines. At this point might as well sit on him for a year or two and see if he can keep his nose clean and get signed by a halfway decent team in 2020.

 
Jello_Biafra said:
If history has taught us anything, it;s that you are wrong. I'd guess 3 of top 6 picks will be RBs. Anyone that KC drafts will be #1. Situation may kill the value of a WR (anyone Buf. drafts), and as much as people are trumpeting this class, it's not like there's 5 Calvin Johnson's coming out this year.  
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Gonna be a weak class at RB, highly likely zero go in the first round of the NFL draft. Any RB KC drafts will probably be a hot commodity and people will be in love with the rookies come April for sure, but I'd rather have Michel than any of the guys currently projected to come out.

 
Other RBs I'm thinking about trading for - Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Either/both worth an early 2019 draft pick? Freeman's injuries the past few years have me worried and Coleman's relatively low production this year has me worried.

 
Zyphros said:
I'd give up any 1st pretty much as long as I was ok at WR.  The top picks in 2019 aren't going to be RB's and Sony is a better player than all of them right now.  You'd have to compare him to one of the top WR's coming out and I think he'd be more valuable than any WR coming out based on how deep both positions are.  
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I basically said the same thing about Guice a while back and it didn't go over well in here and Guice is over 2 years younger than Michel. That being said, I agree with this sentiment. 

 
roarlions said:
Other RBs I'm thinking about trading for - Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Either/both worth an early 2019 draft pick? Freeman's injuries the past few years have me worried and Coleman's relatively low production this year has me worried.
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They will be entering their age 27 and 26 seasons, respectively. While I think Freeman is a better player than Coleman, I don't think either is special, so I would not trade an early 2019 pick. Would rather take my chances with a rookie.

 
Concept Coop said:
This I don't get. Give me Cook, Kerryon, Cooper, Guice, Mahomes, Lindsay, Woods, Landry, and Kupp, at least. 
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Guice and Kerryon... maybe Cook are the only ones that would give me serious pause, but I'd take Davis over Cooper, Mahomes, Lindsay, Woods, Landry, and Kupp. 

I'd love to be wrong on this since I can't acquire Davis anywhere. He was hurt last year and his situation has not been ideal this year, but he's looked the part (IMO). Keep in mind he's only gotten 91 targets from Mariota and Gabbert. As a team they rank 31st in pass attempts. 

 
FF Ninja said:
Guice and Kerryon... maybe Cook are the only ones that would give me serious pause, but I'd take Davis over Cooper, Mahomes, Lindsay, Woods, Landry, and Kupp. 

I'd love to be wrong on this since I can't acquire Davis anywhere. He was hurt last year and his situation has not been ideal this year, but he's looked the part (IMO). Keep in mind he's only gotten 91 targets from Mariota and Gabbert. As a team they rank 31st in pass attempts. 
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tangfoot said:
23 years old and currently a WR2 in 12-team leagues.  If you believe that Mariota is still growing, WR 14 for dynasty doesn't seem wrong at all.
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I understand the appeal and think there is room for reasonable minds to disagree here. But I'm not walking away from a young talent who is producing for a young talent who might once that mess of a situation gets worked out. I think he's talented, but he hasn't lived up to expectations. Not consistently, at least. If I can recoup the ridiculous price paid (ADP of 1.02 in a LOADED class) it's a no-brainer - and trading him for top 25 overall value is doing that. 

Davis is technically a WR2, but he's WR29 per game, followed by 10 other guys scoring within a point of him. 

 
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Concept Coop said:
I understand the appeal and think there is room for reasonable minds to disagree here. But I'm not walking away from a young talent who is producing for a young talent who might once that mess of a situation gets worked out. I think he's talented, but he hasn't lived up to expectations. Not consistently, at least. If I can recoup the ridiculous price paid (1.02 in a LOADED class) it's a no-brainer - and trading him for top 25 overall value is doing that. 

Davis is technically a WR2, but he's WR29 per game, surrounded by 10 other guys scoring within a point of him. 
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Points per game is always the way to go, but with Davis you're not paying for what he's done, you're paying for his upside (IMO, it's just bonus he's done anything on that offense this year). I'll be the first to tell you to ignore eyeball tests, but when you watch him, does he not pass your own? Either way, I wouldn't fault you for trading Davis away for any of those guys (except maybe Landry ;) ). I'm just saying that I'm one person who doesn't see his ranking there as wacky. And again, I'm not a hopeful owner. I've tried pretty hard to acquire him with no luck.

 
FF Ninja said:
Points per game is always the way to go, but with Davis you're not paying for what he's done, you're paying for his upside (IMO, it's just bonus he's done anything on that offense this year). I'll be the first to tell you to ignore eyeball tests, but when you watch him, does he not pass your own? Either way, I wouldn't fault you for trading Davis away for any of those guys (except maybe Landry ;) ). I'm just saying that I'm one person who doesn't see his ranking there as wacky. And again, I'm not a hopeful owner. I've tried pretty hard to acquire him with no luck.
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He passes the eye test, but no more so than the other guys I listed, for me. He's a talent and I get the general optimism. 25 just seems high. 

 
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Concept Coop said:
He passes the eye test, but no more so than the other guys I listed, for me. He's a talent and I get the general optimism. 25 just seems high. 
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I agree with Coop. No way I’m taking Davis that early in a startup. I’d pretty much take the guys you listed ahead of him too, except maybe Cooper.

 
tangfoot said:
23 years old and currently a WR2 in 12-team leagues.  If you believe that Mariota is still growing, WR 14 for dynasty doesn't seem wrong at all.
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The conventional wisdom use to be that it takes 3-5 years to fully develop as an NFL QB. That may have been accelerated a bit as most top QB prospects seem to be trotted out on the field in their rookie year and it is quite often sink or swim and many are one-and-done.

It is premature IMO to say the book is closed on Mariota's development and if you got the roster space he represents a cheap buy low stash as your 2nd or 3rd QB in dynasty leagues.

 
Thoughts on Amari Cooper’s value? 

I’ve always been low on him, compared to the market. And I still think he is what he is: I don’t expect him to ever be much more than he was as a rookie, essentially  what is he today. His hands aren’t great and he struggles with press coverage, but man can that kid run routes. 

He’s in a better situation and is still only 24. What’s he worth, where does he rank?

I’d happily trade a mid-1st for him and would happily trade him away for a top 2 pick. So I guess that puts his value in the 1.03 to 1.05 range for me, today. I’m sure I’ll get some rookie fever, so perhaps 1.04 - 1.06 come April/May.

 
squistion said:
The conventional wisdom use to be that it takes 3-5 years to fully develop as an NFL QB. That may have been accelerated a bit as most top QB prospects seem to be trotted out on the field in their rookie year and it is quite often sink or swim and many are one-and-done.

It is premature IMO to say the book is closed on Mariota's development and if you got the roster space he represents a cheap buy low stash as your 2nd or 3rd QB in dynasty leagues.
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@Just Win Baby pointed out a while ago that, with very few exceptions, QBs break out by their 3rd year starting or not at all. 

I think Mariota is an exception candidate based on his rushing production. Unlike most QBs, he won’t need to be one of the better NFL QBs to be one of the better fantasy QBs. 

So I guess I agree with FBG in NFL terms and you in fantasy terms. I wouldn’t be hopeful as a Corey Davis owner, (Edit: ) in that regard. I think he’ll have to produce despite below average QB play, in the short-term.

 
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Concept Coop said:
@Just Win Baby pointed out a while ago that, with very few exceptions, QBs break out by their 3rd year starting or not at all. 

I think Mariota is an exception candidate based on his rushing production. Unlike most QBs, he won’t need to be one of the better NFL QBs to be one of the better fantasy QBs. 

So I guess I agree with FBG in NFL terms and you in fantasy terms. I wouldn’t be hopeful as a Corey Davis owner.
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Taywan Taylor may turn out to be the fantasy asset to own and IIRC there were some scouts who thought he might be as good or even a better prospect than Davis although he was drafted much later (analogizing it to a Bryant Johnson/Anquan Boldin situation).

 
Concept Coop said:
@Just Win Baby pointed out a while ago that, with very few exceptions, QBs break out by their 3rd year starting or not at all. 

I think Mariota is an exception candidate based on his rushing production. Unlike most QBs, he won’t need to be one of the better NFL QBs to be one of the better fantasy QBs. 

So I guess I agree with FBG in NFL terms and you in fantasy terms. I wouldn’t be hopeful as a Corey Davis owner, (Edit: ) in that regard. I think he’ll have to produce despite below average QB play, in the short-term.
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Yea you kind of touched on this but Mariota was brought up only in reference to how he affects Davis so his rushing production isn't really relevant. If anything it may be a negative for Davis as it will add value to the team that may only get Davis stuck with a below average passer for even longer. 

 
Concept Coop said:
Thoughts on Amari Cooper’s value? 

I’ve always been low on him, compared to the market. And I still think he is what he is: I don’t expect him to ever be much more than he was as a rookie, essentially  what is he today. His hands aren’t great and he struggles with press coverage, but man can that kid run routes. 

He’s in a better situation and is still only 24. What’s he worth, where does he rank?

I’d happily trade a mid-1st for him and would happily trade him away for a top 2 pick. So I guess that puts his value in the 1.03 to 1.05 range for me, today. I’m sure I’ll get some rookie fever, so perhaps 1.04 - 1.06 come April/May.
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I have Amari ranked as the 16th best dynasty WR.  He's actually in a pretty large tier of 13 total receivers that I could see anyone preferring over him.  And my guess is that's close to where I'd rank some of the 2019 rookie WR's as well.  If someone is excited about Amari I could still see a trade where he goes for the 1.01, but I think you're pretty close to the money in the early-mid 1st range.  Not sure if WR17 would be low or high on him, but I think he's a pretty comfortable WR2 for most dynasty teams.  

Also not sure if I would pay a mid tiered 1st for him.  Think I might rather roll the dice on drafting a guy that I see dominating since Amari doesn't do that in my eyes.  I think you'd be lucky to get a top half 1st round pick for him because his perceived value is less than that.  

 
I was ready to give up on Cooper but he has been pretty good, and strangely consistent, since moving to Dallas.

Small sample size obviously (5 games) but his Dallas pace right now is 96-1360-10 over a full season.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I was ready to give up on Cooper but he has been pretty good, and strangely consistent, since moving to Dallas.

Small sample size obviously (5 games) but his Dallas pace right now is 96-1360-10 over a full season.
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Heavily skewed by that Thanksgiving game. What's concerning for fantasy is that he is only on pace for 128 targets a season (8 per game.) That's a huge bump over Oakland but not great for WR1 fantasy chances like many were/are still hoping for. That puts him at WR21 in terms of targets per game, considering how little the Cowboys pass the ball I was actually surprised he was that high since moving over to them.

 
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32 Counter Pass said:
How are people valuing Kareem Hunt? 
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Penciling his 2019 in as a zero. I also think he likely plays again, though both wake-up call and downward spiral are realistic outcomes of this event. Obviously he’s a very good player but he’d be in a worse offense, and any further shenanigans could potentially result in a lifetime ban (whether official or otherwise). Mid-2nd feels about right; probably open with a 3rd and see if the owner thinks he’s done as opinions seem to vary widely

 
Concept Coop said:
Late 1st for me. I think he’ll be back.
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Late 1st would probably be enough to get him from me but I doubt anyone is willing to pay anything close to that. I figure full year ban for 2019 and then someone takes a chance on him for the 2020 season assuming no more incidents and he does whatever the NFL requires of him. The one league I own him I have the depth that I can afford to sit on him for 12~18 months to see if he can keep his nose clean and come back. I figure a 2nd rounder has about as much chance of busting as he does to not come back at all, I know some will disagree with me on that.

 
Buckna said:
Late 1st would probably be enough to get him from me but I doubt anyone is willing to pay anything close to that. I figure full year ban for 2019 and then someone takes a chance on him for the 2020 season assuming no more incidents and he does whatever the NFL requires of him. The one league I own him I have the depth that I can afford to sit on him for 12~18 months to see if he can keep his nose clean and come back. I figure a 2nd rounder has about as much chance of busting as he does to not come back at all, I know some will disagree with me on that.
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Why do you think a full year, as opposed to the 6 games that Zeke got? I haven’t been paying much attention, but I thought 6 games was widely assumed?

 
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Concept Coop said:
Why do you think a full year, as opposed to the 6 games that Zeke got? I haven’t been paying much attention, but I thought 6 games was largely assumed?
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There was an article a few days ago about the NFL investigating two other incidents (one of which was already reported back when it happened but the other new as far as I am aware) and that factoring in to it possibly being longer than the standard 6 game suspension. Who knows with the NFL but I am thinking the more conservative assumption of a longer suspension is most likely. If it's shorter than a year, even better for my fantasy team, but I figure teams would prefer to wait at least 1 yr for things to die down and to give him time to show he's reformed/paid his debt/been punished long enough/whatever.

 
Buckna said:
There was an article a few days ago about the NFL investigating two other incidents (one of which was already reported back when it happened but the other new as far as I am aware) and that factoring in to it possibly being longer than the standard 6 game suspension. Who knows with the NFL but I am thinking the more conservative assumption of a longer suspension is most likely. If it's shorter than a year, even better for my fantasy team, but I figure teams would prefer to wait at least 1 yr for things to die down and to give him time to show he's reformed/paid his debt/been punished long enough/whatever.
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I think he’s basically out for a year too, mainly due to a suspension that, while not officially a one-year ban, takes him deep enough into the season to not face the kind of market for his services he might want.  At some point it becomes better to wait till offseason when every team has an infusion of cash and cap space, rather than sign in-season when every one is near the cap.

Exception might be a late-season injury to an RB star on a playoff-bound squad, that would be willing to pay big on a “rest of season” signing.  Then we might see Hunt appear just in time to swing fantasy playoffs for owners that stashed him.

I would happily pay a mid to late 1st for him.  Would be smashing the accept button in that.

 
Arodin said:
I think he’s basically out for a year too, mainly due to a suspension that, while not officially a one-year ban, takes him deep enough into the season to not face the kind of market for his services he might want.  At some point it becomes better to wait till offseason when every team has an infusion of cash and cap space, rather than sign in-season when every one is near the cap.

Exception might be a late-season injury to an RB star on a playoff-bound squad, that would be willing to pay big on a “rest of season” signing.  Then we might see Hunt appear just in time to swing fantasy playoffs for owners that stashed him.
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Whatever contract he gets is not going to be a cap issue.

 
Any thoughts on Gus Edwards and/or Josh Adams at this point?

ETA: jacked the following from Zyphros thread (hope that is ok) as a starter...

"Tier 5 - (24) Royce Freeman, (25) Matt Breida, (26) Josh Adams, (27) Devonte Freeman, (28) Kenyan Drake, (29) Tarik Cohen, (30) Mark Ingram, (31) TJ Yeldon

Tier 6 - (32) Chris Carson, (33) D'Onte Foreman, (34) Jordan Howard, (35) Derrick Henry, (36) Jay Ajayi

Tier 7 - (37) Lamar Miller, (38) James White, (39) Dion Lewis, (40) Duke Johnson, (41) LeSean McCoy, (42) Austin Ekeler, (43) Nyheim Hines, (44) Giovanni Bernard

Tier 8 - (45) Isaiah Crowell, (46) Ronald Jones, (47) Chris Warren III, (48) Mike Boone, (49) Ito Smith, (50) Elijah McGuire, (51) Alex Collins, (52) Gus Edwards"

 
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Buckna said:
Heavily skewed by that Thanksgiving game. What's concerning for fantasy is that he is only on pace for 128 targets a season (8 per game.) That's a huge bump over Oakland but not great for WR1 fantasy chances like many were/are still hoping for. That puts him at WR21 in terms of targets per game, considering how little the Cowboys pass the ball I was actually surprised he was that high since moving over to them.
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Cooper had a huge game after I posted this, 13 targets for 10 receptions, 217 yards and 3 TD's. Then he followed it up with a huge stinker with 7 targets for 4 catches and 32 yards.

Just when I think he's Dr Jeykll, he turns into Mr Hyde. Has another good matchup this week against Tampa so I would guess he'll be back to beasting.

 
14 team dynasty..no ppr

Spencer Ware....worth holding as a FA for next year or dump him for either..

Tim Patrick 

Tyrell Williams

Blake Jarwin

Duke Johnson Jr.

Rod Smith

Chris Warren III

Malcolm Brown

 
Apologies, not a true dynasty league but a pseudo-keeper league. Traded CMC midseason for the keeper rights to OBJ. Kicking myself now but it is what it is. 

I thought for sure I would be keeping him next year but now I’m starting to reconsider. Keeper options for next year. Can choose 4. Bolded is what I am thinking  

M Thomas 4th

Kelce 5th

OBJ 7th

D Henry 9th

Kupp 10th

Kamara 25th

Have had Henry since he came in the league and had ZERO intention of keeping him but I feel like I almost have to reconsider it now as much as I hate to say it. I also have Guice locked in in round 11 next year. He doesn’t count toward the 4. 

 
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Buckna said:
Cooper had a huge game after I posted this, 13 targets for 10 receptions, 217 yards and 3 TD's. Then he followed it up with a huge stinker with 7 targets for 4 catches and 32 yards.

Just when I think he's Dr Jeykll, he turns into Mr Hyde. Has another good matchup this week against Tampa so I would guess he'll be back to beasting. 
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Lots of folks (including yours truly) had that same guess  :kicksrock:

Will be interesting to see/hear opinions on him as we move toward next year. No doubt folks will recall the monster games and there will be optimism but I think he’s left folks with a pretty bad taste these last two weeks...

 
whiskey7 said:
Any thoughts on Gus Edwards and/or Josh Adams at this point?

ETA: jacked the following from Zyphros thread (hope that is ok) as a starter...

"Tier 5 - (24) Royce Freeman, (25) Matt Breida, (26) Josh Adams, (27) Devonte Freeman, (28) Kenyan Drake, (29) Tarik Cohen, (30) Mark Ingram, (31) TJ Yeldon

Tier 6 - (32) Chris Carson, (33) D'Onte Foreman, (34) Jordan Howard, (35) Derrick Henry, (36) Jay Ajayi

Tier 7 - (37) Lamar Miller, (38) James White, (39) Dion Lewis, (40) Duke Johnson, (41) LeSean McCoy, (42) Austin Ekeler, (43) Nyheim Hines, (44) Giovanni Bernard

Tier 8 - (45) Isaiah Crowell, (46) Ronald Jones, (47) Chris Warren III, (48) Mike Boone, (49) Ito Smith, (50) Elijah McGuire, (51) Alex Collins, (52) Gus Edwards"
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I like Adams a little but Philly is committed to RBBC, it would seem. And apparently they don't like throwing to Adams, although I haven't heard or seen if this is because he has bad hands or not. 

 
whiskey7 said:
Any thoughts on Gus Edwards and/or Josh Adams at this point?

ETA: jacked the following from Zyphros thread (hope that is ok) as a starter...

"Tier 5 - (24) Royce Freeman, (25) Matt Breida, (26) Josh Adams, (27) Devonte Freeman, (28) Kenyan Drake, (29) Tarik Cohen, (30) Mark Ingram, (31) TJ Yeldon

Tier 6 - (32) Chris Carson, (33) D'Onte Foreman, (34) Jordan Howard, (35) Derrick Henry, (36) Jay Ajayi

Tier 7 - (37) Lamar Miller, (38) James White, (39) Dion Lewis, (40) Duke Johnson, (41) LeSean McCoy, (42) Austin Ekeler, (43) Nyheim Hines, (44) Giovanni Bernard

Tier 8 - (45) Isaiah Crowell, (46) Ronald Jones, (47) Chris Warren III, (48) Mike Boone, (49) Ito Smith, (50) Elijah McGuire, (51) Alex Collins, (52) Gus Edwards"
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I don't see anything that would warrant such a discrepancy in their rankings. Both were undrafted. Adams has been outsnapped by Sproles two out of the past three weeks and Edwards has been outsnapped by Dixon two out of the past three weeks. Both guys are nothing more than flyers for 2019. I'd say they both belong in tier 8 if we're using those tiers above. Philly has been more active in acquiring talent at the position than Baltimore, though, so I'd give Edwards slightly better odds of keeping his role next year, although Dixon could make a push for the job even if they ignore the position in free agency and the draft. Adams has less to worry about on the current roster.

Leroy Hoard said:
I can keep either Wentz or Goff. Leaning Goff at this point.
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Wentz is still a nice dynasty asset, but I'd go with Goff without hesitation if I had to pick between the two.

 
barackdhouse said:
I like Adams a little but Philly is committed to RBBC, it would seem. And apparently they don't like throwing to Adams, although I haven't heard or seen if this is because he has bad hands or not. 
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I think there's also the risk with Adams (and I own him in one league) that the team will bring in a free agent or rookie to replace him - or that Clement or Smallwood outplay him.

 
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