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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (6 Viewers)

roarlions said:
I get:

Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB

Year 2021 Round 2 Draft Pick

I give:

Hill, Tyreek KCC WR

Year 2021 Round 1 Draft Pick

Is this an instant accept, strictly from a value point of view?
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I think it’s close enough to let the projection of the picks determine it. If you are giving a potential early first and getting a potential late 2nd, then no way. If it’s the other way around, it’s much more difficult.

It’s also hard to project a full year ahead, so I think I’d lean towards the Hill side and hope that first turns out to be early.

 
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kutta said:
I think it’s close enough to let the projection of the picks determine it. If you are giving a potential early first and getting a potential late 2nd, then no way. If it’s the other way around, it’s much more difficult.

It’s also hard to project a full year ahead, so I think I’d lean towards the Hill side and hope that first turns out to be early.
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The team giving up Zeke and the 2nd round pick was the league champ this past season. Likely to be a playoff team at the least and possible league champ again. My team made it to the semifinals in 2019 and I'd expect to do as well next season. So I'd be giving up Hill and a likely late 1st round pick for Zeke and a late 2nd round pick.

 
Warhogs said:
I don't know that it is an instant accept depending on starting requirements and scoring. Example: I play in a PPR dynasty league where you must start at least 1 RB and up to 3. You must start I think it's 2 WR but up to 6. WR gains some value in a PPR format where you can start as little as 1 RB and up to 6 WR especially with the short dominant career span of most RB. That said, in this instance Reek has had some injury concerns so he is no slam dunk either. Both have had some off field issues in their past. I would be curious on starting lineup requirements and their PPG averages last year in your scoring.
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Not sure what the original trader's scoring requirements are but in my leagues with standard PPR scoring the point difference was  more like 4ppg.

My worry with Tyreek is that he's more of a 75-1100-8 type guy than the 90-1500-12 type guy we saw when Mahomes broke every passing record in the book.  He went 75-1183 in 2017 and his 16 game pace this past year was 77-1146-9.  Of course he had the huge 2018 in between but that was when Mahomes threw for 5100 yards and 50 TDs, which he may or may not ever repeat and even if he does it's not like he'll be doing it every year.

 
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roarlions said:
The team giving up Zeke and the 2nd round pick was the league champ this past season. Likely to be a playoff team at the least and possible league champ again. My team made it to the semifinals in 2019 and I'd expect to do as well next season. So I'd be giving up Hill and a likely late 1st round pick for Zeke and a late 2nd round pick.
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Well then, it’s pretty even. I may lean Zeke because RB’s are just tougher to acquire, but it’s a fair trade.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
My worry with Tyreek is that he's more of a 75-1100-8 type guy than the 90-1500-12 type guy we saw when Mahomes broke every passing record in the book.  He went 75-1183 in 2017 and his 16 game pace this past year was 77-1146-9.  Of course he had hte huge 2018 in between but that was when Mahomes threw for 5100 yards and 50 TDs, which he may or may not ever repeat and even if he does it's not like he'll be doing it every year.
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Using his Alex Smith season has no merit to me.

Last year he sagged to me simply because he missed almost the entire offseason with legal issues, and then both he and Mahomes had injuries.

My only concern with him, and it's one that probably won't rear it's head for a few more seasons so plenty of time for an exit, is a player whose game is based so much on the rarest of speed suffers a rapid decline when that fades.

 
menobrown said:
My only concern with him, and it's one that probably won't rear it's head for a few more seasons so plenty of time for an exit, is a player whose game is based so much on the rarest of speed suffers a rapid decline when that fades.
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The counterpoint is that guys who are superfast can lose a step and still be fast. Desean, Vick, Hilton, Darrell Green. Can name lots of random players who could still succeed based on speed at an advanced age. Truth is in the middle, and all players decline, usually rapidly.

 
Can I price check Adam Thielen ? I like him to bounce back next year - possibly without Diggs, low mileage for age etc. Thinking of offering James Conner to the owner as he has Jaylen Samuel, maybe i can fly it that he’d be locking up the Steelers back field, just wondering if I could push for more out of him than just Thielen. 
 

I think I’m one top WR or RB away from being a very strong contender and due to injuries, ended up with the 1.07 this year 

 
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Everywhere I look, I see Theilen ahead of Conner, but just barely.  It comes down to personal preference and team composition.

 
TartanLion said:
Can I price check Adam Thielen ? I like him to bounce back next year - possibly without Diggs, low mileage for age etc. Thinking of offering James Conner to the owner as he has Jaylen Samuel, maybe i can fly it that he’d be locking up the Steelers back field, just wondering if I could push for more out of him than just Thielen. 
 

I think I’m one top WR or RB away from being a very strong contender and due to injuries, ended up with the 1.07 this year 
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tangfoot said:
Everywhere I look, I see Theilen ahead of Conner, but just barely.  It comes down to personal preference and team composition.
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It seems like Conner would have more perceived value than Thielen.  I guess both had down years due to injury but Conner seems like he would be valued more by the general community.  I would think it would be Thielen+ to get Conner so if you want Thielen I would think it should get done just offering Conner....

 
TartanLion said:
Can I price check Adam Thielen ? I like him to bounce back next year - possibly without Diggs, low mileage for age etc. Thinking of offering James Conner to the owner as he has Jaylen Samuel, maybe i can fly it that he’d be locking up the Steelers back field, just wondering if I could push for more out of him than just Thielen. 
 

I think I’m one top WR or RB away from being a very strong contender and due to injuries, ended up with the 1.07 this year 
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Agree I like Theilen to bounce back and he's good value. I think both are valued the same, have not seen any of them traded individually in my leagues but have seen both as the minor parts of bigger packages. I personally would not push for more. I'd be motivated to get rid of Conner before the NFL draft. Some would argue he's as much as a bounce back candidate as Thielen and perhaps they will be right but Steelers are talking to about every notable RB at the combine and while sometimes that means diddly squat I get feeling they believe it's a big team need and whether or not Conner holds them off or not the damage to his value would already be done. You'd for sure not be able to sell him on locking up the backfield.

 
Same owner has my 5th round pick.  They aren't very valuable but I might be able to get that back for my full array of picks this draft.  He is a little RB dependent and is a Seahawks fan but hard to trade with.

 
roarlions said:
Curtis Samuel or rookie pick 18 in a 12 team PPR league?
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Samuel.  You might as well keep the guy over a high risk player that may or may not develop.  Having said that, it's probably an even trade because I don't think that highly of the Panthers offense going forward.

 
In this draft I like the pick better depending on team construction.  He is a substitutional piece at best.  Lower floor and higher ceiling with that pick in this draft IMHO

 
Mingooch said:
In this draft I like the pick better depending on team construction.  He is a substitutional piece at best.  Lower floor and higher ceiling with that pick in this draft IMHO
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People will say that most years.  The new toy always seems more appealing.  However, the Panthers offense going forward doesn't look all that great to me, thus the reason why I said it was an even trade.

 
I know this might be a health related question, but assuming Cam Newton is healthy, what kind of player would you expect to get for him in a dynasty? Guy inquired about Cam in one of my leagues where I'm pretty deep at QB, but just haven't seen him moved in so long no idea how to gage his value. Would TE Engram be close in value? Or TE Cook and a late 2nd rookie pick? 

 
ffmail4me said:
I know this might be a health related question, but assuming Cam Newton is healthy, what kind of player would you expect to get for him in a dynasty? Guy inquired about Cam in one of my leagues where I'm pretty deep at QB, but just haven't seen him moved in so long no idea how to gage his value. Would TE Engram be close in value? Or TE Cook and a late 2nd rookie pick? 
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I moved my 2021 1st for him, along with a 3rd round swap, in an FFPC superflex about a month ago. I know you asked for a player but I guess I would call this a late future 1st FWIW. I was in the playoffs last year and earned the 1.09, I think my roster will be stronger this year. I say that to say that I valued it as a late first, even though I know there is a gambling dice roll involved in it, especially FFPC. But I think Engram is a good comparable. I would want more than Cook myself. I don't think the late 2nd would do it for me. I'm a Cam believer, though, or at least I am betting that way. 

 
ffmail4me said:
I know this might be a health related question, but assuming Cam Newton is healthy, what kind of player would you expect to get for him in a dynasty? Guy inquired about Cam in one of my leagues where I'm pretty deep at QB, but just haven't seen him moved in so long no idea how to gage his value. Would TE Engram be close in value? Or TE Cook and a late 2nd rookie pick? 
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Unless it's super flex, engram is worth a bit more than cam. 

 
-OZ- said:
Unless it's super flex, engram is worth a bit more than cam. 
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I'd say quite a bit more. In a single QB league Newton's value has bottomed out. In his Dynasty Trade Value Chart that Hindery updates each month, he has Newton's value at 3 and Engram's at 15. I might have Newton a little higher, but not by much.

edit to add: He has Newton's value at 13 in a Superflex league, which equals about the 1.11 rookie pick.

 
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mcd said:
I'd say quite a bit more. In a single QB league Newton's value has bottomed out. In his Dynasty Trade Value Chart that Hindery updates each month, he has Newton's value at 3 and Engram's at 15. I might have Newton a little higher, but not by much.

edit to add: He has Newton's value at 13 in a Superflex league, which equals about the 1.11 rookie pick.
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Yes I was only talking superflex. I also think he is a good buy low in single QB, but for substantially less than Engram.

 
JohnnyU said:
People will say that most years.  The new toy always seems more appealing.  However, the Panthers offense going forward doesn't look all that great to me, thus the reason why I said it was an even trade.
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Interested in your view on the Panthers offense. The new coaching staff doesn't give you any optimism? I guess it's a big unknown. Certainly if they run it back with Cam, I wouldn't be that enthusiastic. 

Samuel is a tricky one for me. I like him a lot, but I wonder if he will always be a 'potential breakout' guy who is never used/featured enough to truly matter as more than a flex type option in fantasy. I'd probably buy him for the 2.06 and hope for the best. Having said that, there are a lot of appealing rookie WRs who will probably be drafted in that range and as dynasty assets, they may have more value than Samuel a year from now. This is where dynasty is fun - you need to take risks and make decisions on incomplete information. 

 
RushHour said:
Interested in your view on the Panthers offense. The new coaching staff doesn't give you any optimism? I guess it's a big unknown. Certainly if they run it back with Cam, I wouldn't be that enthusiastic. 

Samuel is a tricky one for me. I like him a lot, but I wonder if he will always be a 'potential breakout' guy who is never used/featured enough to truly matter as more than a flex type option in fantasy. I'd probably buy him for the 2.06 and hope for the best. Having said that, there are a lot of appealing rookie WRs who will probably be drafted in that range and as dynasty assets, they may have more value than Samuel a year from now. This is where dynasty is fun - you need to take risks and make decisions on incomplete information. 
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I am afraid of the Panthers offense (outside of CMC).  They have a new coaching staff, Olsen is gone, Cam isn't a throwing QB, they have no other real QB options, and Moore will get the most run for them at WR.  The only benefit is they will be losing most of the time and will be forced to throw some but if 100+ targets go to CMC and Moore each, I don't see Samuel doing much.  I'd take a high-mid 2nd in a draft with a ton of WR talent personally.

 
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Gally said:
mid first rounder...top 6 pick
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Thanks for the input.  That is kind of what I was thinking.  I didn't want to go much lower than 6.  I was trying to get Preston Williams and 8 from a guy that only has Chubb, Drake, Higdon, Bodlen, and Brian Hill at RB but he thinks he has enough.  I was a little surprised.

 
JoeJoe88 said:
My dynasty league is superflex so I’d probably have about 7 or 8 of these rookies slotted ahead of Carson at the moment. So around the 1.08.
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It is .5 PPR, no SF, 1 QB, 1RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, 1 TE.  Gives me a good idea though.  I just didn't want to ask for too much or too little and make it more difficult to get a trade done.

 
hispeedthinmint said:
What should I expect to get for guys Like Herndon, Ebron & Fournette in PPR?
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I would say Herndon and Ebron are about equal in market value. Nobody wants to buy Ebron though. I'd say mid 2nd rookie pick for either. 

Fournette is quite a bit more. Probably multiple 1sts. I think the 1.01 is a good starting place. Maybe about equal. Bird in the hand argument comes into play.

 
Carson seems to be a divisive name in terms of value here

Thoughts on Carson and Kerryon for Godwin, 12 team PPR

Original offer was Sammy and Sterling Shepard for Carson, countered with the above and the other owner accepted

 
Pwingles said:
Carson seems to be a divisive name in terms of value here

Thoughts on Carson and Kerryon for Godwin, 12 team PPR

Original offer was Sammy and Sterling Shepard for Carson, countered with the above and the other owner accepted
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I would want Godwin. He was great last year and while I really like Carson I think Godwin has more remaining years of clear starter seasons.

 
hispeedthinmint said:
What should I expect to get for guys Like Herndon, Ebron & Fournette in PPR?
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In terms of rookie picks I think Fournette is probably a top 3 pick and it may depend on if someone prefers a hot new rookie name over a proven player. Assuming no TE premium Ebron is probably late round 2 to first part of round 3. We are at the time owners would rather own that pick over a name and with not knowing where he is playing makes him a little less exciting at the moment. Herndon, is probably a round 4 guy at the moment after a bad year. Again, I am basing my guesses on picks being the popular piece to own at this time.

 
Pwingles said:
Carson seems to be a divisive name in terms of value here

Thoughts on Carson and Kerryon for Godwin, 12 team PPR

Original offer was Sammy and Sterling Shepard for Carson, countered with the above and the other owner accepted
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You got great value there as Carson and KJ are currently hurt.  KJ has been his entire career and Godwin looks like the real deal.  I will say that the uncertainty at QB would scare me just a touch but good get.

 
My prediction for free agency is Melvin Gordon to KC. No real reasoning behind it other than I think it would create a ton of buzz for fantasy football players. Could Gordon want to stay in the AFC West?

 
Warhogs said:
My prediction for free agency is Melvin Gordon to KC. No real reasoning behind it other than I think it would create a ton of buzz for fantasy football players. Could Gordon want to stay in the AFC West?
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Doesn't make much sense to me.  KC rbs need good hands and Gordon is a simply OK catcher.

 
hispeedthinmint said:
Would you rather have Fournette or the best rookie RB @ 1.01, though?
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 I offered two people in two different leagues( of course) Fournette /Armstead  for the 1.1 and both said they wanted no part of it. Now both people are kind of a-holes to trade with, but I got a quick and mighty slap down in both cases.

 
I have the 1.1 in both a PPR and non-PPR league (acquired, not earned!).

I'd take my chances with either Swift or Taylor over Fournette in either.

He's a great example of a player that's worth more to the guy that has him than one looking to acquire.

 
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