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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter spider321
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
Jones has thrown 4 TDs to Engram in the last two years and Engram has a total of 13 TDs in his entire career and only 7 in the last 3 years. Plus he will be 27 when the season starts. At what point do we say he is what he is? Now I don't know what Irv Smith is going to turn into, but I pretty much know what Engram is.
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
I guess it depends on what you thought of smith coming in. Rudolph started 13 games and had 37 targets; smith started 7 and had 43. As the primary TE this year he could flirt with double digit tds- he had 5 in 37 catches last season.
Engram got over 100 targets last year and failed to finish as a top 12 te. Granted, he may get more red zone opportunities if the NYG move the ball more effectively, but now there is also another te that might eat into his targets as well, even if it’s only a handful. Engram had 6 games with 9 targets or more, I doubt that happens much this year.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Engram has also got 115 targets his rookie year, averages over 110 targets in full seasons (89 average for 4 total seasons). Health has been his issue, and so has an overall bad Giants team, but there's hope glimmering through. I think people are forgetting TE takes a while to learn, and Engram is entering his prime years now.
I'd much rather take a shot on Engram who has the way better profile, better size, has developed into a blocker, plays all downs, and is used by his QB a lot.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Well, I don't think I could feel comfortable with Engram as my TE1. He's going into his 5th year and has had minimal TDs after his rookie year. Only seven in three years. He had Eli Manning throwing to him his first two years and Jones the last two. Yes, TEs take awhile to come into their own, but Engram is entering his 5th season. You mentioned health as part of the reason. Ok, but that isn't something you can just ignore either.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I would agree that engram might be the better short term option. But smith is also coming into his own and has an efficient offense that will produce red zone looks. I’d probably take engram in redraft but smith in dynasty. No way do I give 1.12 for either though. I think you’re underestimating smith though.
When it comes to “profile” I’m not sure what you’re getting at. Size? Engram is 6’3” and irv is 6’2” and both around 240 lbs, so that’s not a valid argument. Engram 4.42 vs smith 4.62 40 times, engram is a little faster, but that’s a good time for smith as well. Smith 2nd round pick; engram 1st. That’s important in a rookie year when determining play time or investment, but marginal 3-5 years in.
I don’t think engram gets 100 targets again either. Healthy barkley, added golladay, but also added rudolph, John Ross, and devontae booker, who all could see a handful of targets.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Profile wise I was looking at breakout, YPC, and dominator. Engram is the far superior prospect. But they aren't prospects anymore. Engram has failed to live up to his draft slot, but he's shown glimpses of absolute dominance. Irv hasn't really had that chance yet. This is probably the last year for Engram to make a case as a top option so I understand people getting hesitant.
The majority (or all) of you seem to viewing Engram as that last leg, while the arrow is only pointing up for Smith. I'm betting on the better player, everyone else seems to be betting on the youth and ceiling.
Random number time to explain my point: One guy has 20% of optimism, the other has 80% but that 20% of bright light coming through is based on an outstanding profile. The guy with 80% optimism is through rose colored glasses hoping and praying he becomes something, but it isn't based on profile. It's based on either opportunity and age. I don't see a good enough ceiling even if Irv Smith hits.
I’d prefer Irv to Engram at this point, but I’m not too crazy about either. Certainly not to the point where I’m throwing in a late 1st to make a deal work for either.
Catbird
Footballguy
Forced to a choice, I'd take the 1.12 over both of them. Carter, Terrace or one of the Moores all have far better potential to be a star going forward than either of these guys, Engram's early flashes not withstanding.
The surprise here is Zyphros pounding the drum for some 27 year old underperformer over youth and unknown upside.
The surprise here is Zyphros pounding the drum for some 27 year old underperformer over youth and unknown upside.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I wholeheartedly disagree with this, personally. Engram's issue has not been health. His issue has been that he is a lousy football player.
Engram has had near league worse efficiency his entire time in the NFL. It's easy to blame that on the QB but he got to play with Eli and while Eli was no Brady, plenty of WRs flourished with him.
Engram's entire value has basically been volume that he lucked into via every other even minorly worthwhile receiving option on the Giants being hurt or getting shipped out during Engram's career. He is the TE equivalent of a RB that everyone knows is garbage but gets some play in fantasy circles because his team has no other option right now, but we all know he'll be useless in a few years. He's basically the Leonard Fournette of TE.
I don't love Irv or anything but I would take him extremely easily over Engram as a potential breakout candidate that has looked good in limited action and is now likely heading into a larger role. That is far from any kind of guarantee but I'd rather take a chance on the guy that might be good over the guy I already know is not.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
This is where I think you're out on an island from everyone else. Why would we think Engram is the better player? Why would we think he's better than ANYONE at this point? Again, he may be the least efficient receiving option in the entire NFL. He has been that bad. He is pure volume. Lots of targets, and has done less than nothing with them.
Engram had 109 targets this year. Darren Waller had 117 targets in 2019. So on roughly the same number of targets Engram put up a barely startable 63-654-1 while Waller put up top 3 TE numbers with 90-1145-5.
Yes, Daniel Jones sucked. But Engram played with Eli (who is at least as good as Carr, and has made plenty of fantasy receiving studs) and had the same number targets and still had a lousy similar statline.
Logan Thomas had 8 fewer targets than Engram with his own set of lousy QBs and outscored Engram handily.
I just don't think he's any good. His stats are awful, and watching him with the eye test he looks even worse. Just my opinion but I think it's a fairly common one and the idea that he is a good player has long since passed him by. I would imagine most Giants fans consider him more a liability than anything at this point.
ETA: Irv's startup ADP is several rounds ahead of Engram's as well. I'm not saying add the 1.12 on top of either one, but Irv > Engram seems to be the rule, not the exception.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
What isn't to like about Irv? He isn't going to be splitting targets with Rudolph anymore. Nobody is saying he is the next Kelce or something. But his youth and upside look pretty good. Not every pick has to be a grand slam. Sometimes it is ok to hit a solo dinger or even some doubles and singles. Nobody is claiming Irv is special.
I actually think he might be pretty good and I don't get the hate. I haven't said a word about Engram yet but I think they are pretty even. I would rather take the ascending player every time though.
It isn't rose colored optimism. Neither is worth remotely close to 1.12 so either one of them are value plays and hopefully you've got other options. Engram is *probably* never going to hit the ceiling we would want him to but Irv might. If he doesn't so be it. Small loss.
I actually think he might be pretty good and I don't get the hate. I haven't said a word about Engram yet but I think they are pretty even. I would rather take the ascending player every time though.
It isn't rose colored optimism. Neither is worth remotely close to 1.12 so either one of them are value plays and hopefully you've got other options. Engram is *probably* never going to hit the ceiling we would want him to but Irv might. If he doesn't so be it. Small loss.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Ben & Jerry's
Footballguy
Where would you value Waller in terms of a rookie pick?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
He’s a hard one to answer that question. He will be 29 in September, yet he was a late bloomer who had drug issues earlier in his career and beat it. He should have at least two or three years of elite production left. I wouldn’t give more than the 1.10, but wouldn’t fault a contending team giving the 1.09. Contender or not I wouldn’t give more than the 1.09, whether it’s TE premium or not.
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
I would want an early pick+. I don’t think many people would trade 1.01-1.04, and I would want more than 1.05 if I was trading him. You’re hoping Pitts turns into Waller, so why trade Waller for Pitts (1.05-1.08) and not get more? He’s hard to trade though imo.
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If I was a Waller owner I’d flip Waller for Pitts straight up. I know Waller has the track record of production but in this case I’d take on the risk of Pitts becoming truly elite
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I’m a Pitts owner in two leagues and wouldn’t entertain the thought of trading him for Waller in a dynasty league.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Just as a rule of thumb - you're not going to do better than a late first for aging vets.
So if your team is good, maybe you just keep them. If you're going to rebuild, just accept you're not going to get what you think he's worth.
So if your team is good, maybe you just keep them. If you're going to rebuild, just accept you're not going to get what you think he's worth.
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
Tes are typically later bloomers that can play into their 30s.
ETA: if you have to play a te, if you have kelce or Waller you’re scoring a bunch more at that position that simply can’t be replaced. It would be like trading kelce 2 years ago for oj Howard.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Regardless, I still think it would be foolish for anyone to give more than the 1.09 for Waller in a dynasty league. I personally wouldn’t go as high as the 1.10.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Interesting discussion about this. Thanks. I have a pick that falls right in the Pitts range and am keenly interested in what it would fetch on the open market.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
What current young te would you like over Waller? Fant or Waller, hockenson or Waller, Howard njoku engram? Kittle, but he’s the 3rd guy in the “elite” te tier. Hockenson probably makes sense but he might not reach the level Waller has the last 2 years. Where will pitts go where he will see that kind of volume? OJ Howard was this transcendent talent at one point that went in the same area of dynasty drafts. Sure, pitts could be amazing, like if he puts up 2-3 years of top 5 production at some point you’ll probably consider him worth the pick. Waller just seems like a better bet to do that but without the upside of 5-7 years (or more) of production left.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
It's not a question of which young TE you'd rather have. It's a question of what player you'd rather have with an early first - and the answer for most people is "several".
People keep bringing up Howard but it's not the same. He wowed with his athleticism but plenty of people questioned his actual output while at Bama. Pitts has actual production to go with his skills.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
If I had Waller and was rebuilding, I would be giddy if someone offered me a top 7 pick and feel warm and fuzzy if someone offered me the 1.8, and probably take a shot of Blanton’s if someone offered me the 1.09.
rockaction
Footballguy
I think Snorkelson makes good points. Of course I'm not as seasoned as you guys, but give me Waller over Pitts right now. I'm not saying trade the pick, but if you had me choose between Pitts and Waller the next two years (assuming two-year windows) then give me Waller. If you watch the Raiders, he is the focal point of their offense. He's TE2 right now, ahead of Kittle, believe it or not, for that reason. They line up Waller in the slot and out wide all the time. Like all the time. He's the first guy Carr looks to. He's a monster after the catch. The drawback is age and potential relapse. That's about it, and age isn't that much of a consideration given TE longevity. He probably won't slow down in the next two years.
That's my take.
That's my take.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Well there is a big caveat of team makeup and how someone with a top 6 pick probably doesn’t need Waller. And if I’m rebuilding and the best I can get is a late 1st I’m at least trying to get some late round throw ins because I’m rebuilding, but think he’s worth asking for a 2nd in addition. And @Andy Dufresnealso makes a good point that you don’t have to take pitts necessarily, but in looking at that area of the draft where he’s being taken I think it’s a valid comparison.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
If someone offered me Pitts for Waller, contending team or not, I would probably sprain my hand hitting the accept button.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I am a big time buyer of Waller this off-season. I would easily give a late 1st for him. I play mostly ffpc (TE premium) so am trying to figure out what it would cost to buy him there.
Someone on reddit made the case for him being dynasty TE1 and they made a pretty compelling argument. Kelce is getting old and Kittle has the body of someone even older than kelce. Waller is actually a full 3 years younger than Kelce which is surprising as most people round up on Waller's age and down on Kelce's.
Someone on reddit made the case for him being dynasty TE1 and they made a pretty compelling argument. Kelce is getting old and Kittle has the body of someone even older than kelce. Waller is actually a full 3 years younger than Kelce which is surprising as most people round up on Waller's age and down on Kelce's.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
For what it's worth in two FFPC startups Waller went before the 3rd rookie was taken in one of them and before the 4th rookie was taken in the other one.
He went pick 25 in one and 26 in the other.
He went pick 25 in one and 26 in the other.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I sold Waller in te premium, something like (10’team)
gave Waller/1.08/2.08/Henderson/marquis brown
Got
CMC/3.01/russel gage
Marauder
Footballguy
To be fair, in a startup the rookies are being drafted without knowing their landing spots so their values are depressed a little. To put it another way, the 1.03 pick is worth more than the 3rd rookie player selected in a startup.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I wish they would use draft slots rather than the actual rookies, then hold a separate rookie draft with all the other FFPC rookie drafts. At least for the current startups going on.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
I drafted him and then traded some better TEs later thinking Engram was my guy. PFF helped convince me that he was good. I think after his 2nd year (?) they had him rated as the top TE over the second half of the season. Don't quote me on that , but that was the gist of it. I'm not sure how much credence to give their rankings anymore and Engram is a big reason why.
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voiceofunreason
Footballguy
His yards and results with all those targets is putrid. Much better chance that his targets go way down then he finally does something with them.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I only have modest expectations that he can be in the top 12 and be a competent backup on shallow FFPC squads. That doesn't take much at the TE position. There is upside for (a little) more but nobody is risking a lot to find out. He is as good of a dart throw at a dog poo position as you can find.
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Shawnky
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
To be fair, it's a "run first team" that threw for 4300 yards and 35 tds last year, with a Qb that has thrown for 4000+ yards 5 of the last 6 seasons.
TE5 had 723 receiving yards last year. There are plenty of paths to Irv putting up those kind of numbers+ going forward.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Yes, you're right with the first paragraph. Run first is a misnomer. Run preferred is better.
But even so, they're still not a team focused on using the TE spot in the passing game. Particularly when they refuse to fix the o-line issues. That's the reason Rudolph left in a bit of a huff. He was tired of being used to block.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
Anecdotally, the Brady owner in my leagues seem to recognize this is may be their last shot to cash in, so he's priced above what I'm seeing in startup ADP data. I am wondering if there will be a price adjustment on the other side of the draft should they not find a buyer beforehand though.
MAC_32
Footballguy
This is what I thought it'd take to get him and offered accordingly. One countered with 2.4 and the other Jalen Reagor. Pass.
