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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
I would prefer Watson especially now that no criminal charges are happening. I think Lance is really raw and will not be very consistent. I am assuming you are talking about a 1QB league because that does change things a bit. I value Lance a lot more in a 2QB/SF because of the upside but in a 1 QB the risk is too great to be reliant on him alone.
If you own both and are torn on which one you like more the easy solution is to put them both out on the block and see which one return more value. If the value is good enough then make the move.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I do own them both on the same team and I have considered this same question. I like both of them so much I basically bought them both for a late and early second last year in separate deals in a one QB league I already have Kyler.
So again like them both a lot, but I'd prefer Watson. Now that's a lot easier for me because I still have Kyler and afford to wait out his likely suspension but Watson's basically been a 25 PPG fantasy QB every single year. Lance is young with that upside, Watson is young and proven and it's the proven over upside that makes me say Watson.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Trubisky value in SuperFlex?
Looking at my 16 FFPC SF leagues, he is available in the FA pool in 9 of them. And obviously his trade value has to jump considerably now.
So how much to acquire in trade? And how late does he go in these 9 drafts? Early 2nd round?
Looking at my 16 FFPC SF leagues, he is available in the FA pool in 9 of them. And obviously his trade value has to jump considerably now.
So how much to acquire in trade? And how late does he go in these 9 drafts? Early 2nd round?
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Do you have another QB you're comfortable starting for the 6-12 games that Watson gets suspended?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Advice needed:
I’m rebuilding for 2023 with a decent corps of receivers but very little at RB.
I have 5x 1sts in 2023, including likely picks 1, 2 and ether 3 or 4. Plus 2 in the 9-12 range, and 2.01, and 2.03 or 2.04
My one viable RB is Michael Carter (just acquired for 1.08 & Daniel Jones) who I see as a decent but unspectacular RB2 (around RB23-25) with some upside, and also some risk.
I might have the opportunity to pick up a 6th 1st round pick in 2023, something in the 8-12 range, in trade for Carter.
Should I hold, or should I continue to invest in the 2023 draft?
It should be noted that I intend to lose as many games as possible in 2022, so having Carter could hurt more than help.
TIA for any advice here.
I’m rebuilding for 2023 with a decent corps of receivers but very little at RB.
I have 5x 1sts in 2023, including likely picks 1, 2 and ether 3 or 4. Plus 2 in the 9-12 range, and 2.01, and 2.03 or 2.04
My one viable RB is Michael Carter (just acquired for 1.08 & Daniel Jones) who I see as a decent but unspectacular RB2 (around RB23-25) with some upside, and also some risk.
I might have the opportunity to pick up a 6th 1st round pick in 2023, something in the 8-12 range, in trade for Carter.
Should I hold, or should I continue to invest in the 2023 draft?
It should be noted that I intend to lose as many games as possible in 2022, so having Carter could hurt more than help.
TIA for any advice here.
I don't think either direction is crazy but I'd hold.
Laken Tomlinson is a nice addition and in general the entire OL could take another step up could be a really big strength and he'll catch his share of passes. He's someone whose value I project to rise, obvious risk being them adding a signfiicant RB but hard to see Carter not having his role.
Also in-season you will usually run into a situation were a contending team in the mix of the chase has a good young player go out for all or most of the season. Now this might present itself as a buying opportunity for you to use Carter to buy a proven young player instead of a projected later first.
Apple Juice
Footballguy
Yeah I'm betting on Carter to gain value during the season rather than lose it. I think he's going to have a nose for the end zone and get about 4 catches per game. The rushing will be gravy.
He needs to stay healthy. If he's not getting a ton of carries he can't miss games like he did last year. It's too bad he got hurt when he did because he was gaining momentum and looking good before he went out.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Not a bad problem to have but I’d like some words of wisdom in super flex. I went from having weak QBs to a decent situation I think.
any idea on the values of Tom Brady, Deshaun Watson, Ryan tannehill, Trey Lance, Mitchell Trubisky, and Davis Mills? I’m almost definitely keeping Tannehill and Lance, the others could be expendable. Or would you just keep the group? Considering mills and Lance aren’t proven, I have no idea what Trubisky does although I do like the situation for him, Watson will probably miss time this year and Brady probably retires in 23.
any idea on the values of Tom Brady, Deshaun Watson, Ryan tannehill, Trey Lance, Mitchell Trubisky, and Davis Mills? I’m almost definitely keeping Tannehill and Lance, the others could be expendable. Or would you just keep the group? Considering mills and Lance aren’t proven, I have no idea what Trubisky does although I do like the situation for him, Watson will probably miss time this year and Brady probably retires in 23.
I think it would be an option to consider exploring. Depending on how much the other manager wants Carter, it would not be out of the realm of possibility that you could get more than the late first, seeing as how Carter will be improving the other team and potentially making the pick later.
Unless it's a return that you have to take at this time, I agree with the others that Carter's value is likely to rise as we get closer to the season. You are taking on the risk with holding him (injury) but even if he does get injured, that helps in your desired goal for 2022. Trading him just before the season starts would accomplish both of your goals of losing in 2022 and investing in 2023. Best of luck to you in finding a good deal.
What's the league size and other starting requirements? The larger the league, the more likely I would be to keep the QBs. Even Brady if you're planning on contending. Otherwise, Brady and Trubisky are who I would be looking to trade because of longevity concerns but there is no reason to force a below market trade as you have the assets that others want. There is no replacement level production at QB as opposed to other positions (meaning you can't play a backup QB and get 50% of the points). Let it be known that you are open to discussing moving a QB without getting one back but only if it makes sense for your team. You'll still get lots of junk offers but the closer to the season we get, the desperation will increase.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Thanks. I appreciate the suggestion.
As it stands, Carter is currently valued by most calcs as either slightly below the late 1st alone or slightly above, so I figure that’s even. Knowing this owner, it would be difficult to squeeze more blood out of that particular turnip.
I think I’ll hold. I need RBs, and making this deal feels like throwing back Carter fishing for a better option in 2023, and I already have 5 fishing lines in the water.
And if Carter gains value, I can always move him later.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Definitely a good issue to have. I would be moving Brady (how many years left, realistically?!), Trubisky (before he struggles in PIT) and Mills asap.
I’d keep Tannehill, Lance & Watson.
Value will be in the eye of the beholder, but IMO Brady is going to get the most in return from a win-now team, and Watson is going to be undervalued due to the chaos surrounding I’m (and the likely suspension).
-OZ-
Footballguy
12 teams, QRRWWWTFFSK, 7 IDP
I’m planning to contend after a down year last year (Henry and Watson out hurt).
thanks
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Value check on Dak in superflex? I'd love to sell now, but not getting much interest from buyers.
Cheers. With these requirements and your inclination to contending, I would keep Brady and look to trade Trubisky for a roster player that upgrades a starting lineup spot over who you already have. Most likely that you'll get offers of WR and/or IDP. If you need depth, you could consider taking multiple pieces to accomplish that goal.12 teams, QRRWWWTFFSK, 7 IDP
I’m planning to contend after a down year last year (Henry and Watson out hurt).
thanks
During the season, if Watson is playing (post-suspension) and Lance is producing well, you could look at trading Tannehill or Brady to further support a championship run. Best of luck!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I think the top tier QBs in SF are almost unobtainable. Last offseason I paid Antonio Gibson and a 1st for Russell Wilson. It would take a lot of cheddar for me to get off of a top QB in this format. I later moved that Wilson share and Juju (and Higbee IIRC) for Waller and another 1st. TE premium and I know none of those players are named Dak, but best as I can do for a (possibly) reasonable estimate.
I don't think two 1sts is enough as mentioned above, unless they are absolutely premium. And even then the deal probably doesn't happen unless there is a premium vet player involved.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Nobody wants to buy high. That's why I say players like him are hard to get. Not because the price is wrong, but because it is hard for anyone to stomach putting that many assets into an offer.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Agreed. Two mid-high firsts probably gets it done but I’d rather have Dak. frankly I wouldn’t want either of those picks this year unless you’re loaded at QB.
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Lehigh98
Footballguy
Have been dancing around basically a Dak for Pitts trade in a SF 2pt TE premium league but we both are hesitant to pull the trigger. I really like Pitts but hate to give up a QB in a trade without getting one back in SF. Dak was my first rounder (1.11) in the startup last year and Pitts was his 2nd rounder (2.03), it was the pick after my 2nd round pick of Justin Herbert. (He took Jonathan Taylor in the 1st)
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, I think Dak is *worth* 2x 1sts
that doesn’t mean the owner will accept that, or that a buyer will be willing to pay that.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
IF I didn’t already have him, I would be out shopping for Ronald Jones ASAP.
IMO chances are very good he signs with the Kansas City Chiefs. And as we’ve seen in the recent past, CEH is not a feature back, because Andy Reid does not want to use him that way.
Ronald Jones is arguably better in short yardage, and also more powerful between the tackles.
There’s a very realistic chance that Ronald Jones could end up being the better/more valuable Kansas City running back if he signs there.
Chances are he could still be had on the cheap. He’s still only 24.
Just throwing that out there.
IMO chances are very good he signs with the Kansas City Chiefs. And as we’ve seen in the recent past, CEH is not a feature back, because Andy Reid does not want to use him that way.
Ronald Jones is arguably better in short yardage, and also more powerful between the tackles.
There’s a very realistic chance that Ronald Jones could end up being the better/more valuable Kansas City running back if he signs there.
Chances are he could still be had on the cheap. He’s still only 24.
Just throwing that out there.
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InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Now that we've had some time to process the Tyreek trade, what's the Shark Pool's opinion on how this affects his value? Is he still a top 3 WR or does his value take a hit given the weapons in Miami?
Personally, I think his real value takes a hit this season. Between Tua's (lack of) arm and an assortment of good+ receiving threats on the team, I see his targets dropping into the 110 range and a projection of 94/1100/7. Certainly good, but not elite. Is it time to sell high?
Personally, I think his real value takes a hit this season. Between Tua's (lack of) arm and an assortment of good+ receiving threats on the team, I see his targets dropping into the 110 range and a projection of 94/1100/7. Certainly good, but not elite. Is it time to sell high?
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Selling high was 2 days ago dude. Not likely anyone is paying what they would have pre Dolphins trade now.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
exactly.Wigglytuff's Gruff said:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It's a tough question. Dude is a beast, and did not appear to be falling off at all last year.
That said, the downsides:
- Adams is 29, soon to be 30 years old.
- Carr had Amari Cooper for years and couldn't do much with him. Carr is a better QB now than he was, but this has a little chicken & the egg feel to it.
- There are more weapons in LV than there were in GB. Renfrow, Waller, now Hardman - in GB it was like a bunch of Hardman-types + Adams
I don't feel like his value should fall off of a cliff though. I feel like 2x 1st round picks is a fair offer. I'd rather have the 2023 than 2022. 2024 is a bit far out, even though I like the potential of that class.
Since they're late I'd probably feel comfortable countering for those 2 1sts + a 2023 2nd and see if you can pull that off.
$.02
jm192
Footballguy
jm192
Footballguy
David Montgomery price check?
I'm torn on what to do with him. He had 20 carries in each of his last 3 games. I think they'll run the ball a lot. I also don't envision the Bears offense being anything special. Another sub 4.0 ypc season last year.
If he has another holhum season, does he wind up with a lesser role elsewhere?
I'm tempted to move him. But don't feel like people are super interested at this point, either.
I'm torn on what to do with him. He had 20 carries in each of his last 3 games. I think they'll run the ball a lot. I also don't envision the Bears offense being anything special. Another sub 4.0 ypc season last year.
If he has another holhum season, does he wind up with a lesser role elsewhere?
I'm tempted to move him. But don't feel like people are super interested at this point, either.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That's a hard question. I would think a 2023 late 2nd or early 3rd would still get it done?
The reporting so far is "brought him in, would be for a backup role" - I am admittedly reading into the tea leaves quite a bit deeper than that, because I've watched a lot of CEH, and I've seen Reid's tendencies over the last couple seasons.
The "backup" in KC = potential short yardage/early down role, and if CEH gets hurt again (not unprecedented) a full time role.
So if you have the pick to spend, that early 3rd might be worth it.
But beauty is in the eye of the beholder. RoJo might not sign in KC, and I might be completely wrong here, costing you a 3rd round pick for a doorstop.
robb
Footballguy
I would possibly trade a 4th for him now, maybe a 5th. Now, if he actually ends up in KC then I could see the 2nd/3rd that Hot Sauce Guy states. Just my 2 cents.
Anyone reporting he's brought in for a backup role is not really reporting but making up an opinion to go along with actual report they brought him in. I would venture to guess the team is not relaying any message to media that he's just brought in to be a backup.
But I've heard no updates and would guess he left town without a deal.
As to his value it's hard as heck to say right now. I mean I'm just hoping he signs in next week because I have to do cut downs in a league and depending were he signs I range from cutting/giving up for peanuts or valuing over a solid second.
So right now, if you want to buy him, I'd maybe try a third and worst case he's a 24 year old high end backup maybe someplace like Chargers/Cardinals/Broncos, best case he's in KC competing for a job.
Boone22
Footballguy
As an owner, I’m not moving him for a 3rd or later. He’s still only 24 and there are still a few opportunities out there where he could fall into a decent role. I’d rather crash and burn with him then sell him for a crapshoot pick in the 3rd or 4th round.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yep - pretty much what I said. The reporting seems disconnected from what I believe the Chiefs what bring him in to do.
IMO, it would be the most clear split KC has had.
fingers crossed he signs there soon.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
The problem is, owners have seen the news. No Ronald Jones owner is going to part with him for a fourth or fifth right now. We have held for this long waiting for just such an opportunity to come up.
so while I agree with you that it is probably his value, it’s unrealistic to try to obtain him for that.
basically, to get him now, you need to pay as if he already signed with KC
And after he signs, I could see him going for a late second.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Tha Guru
Footballguy
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Monty is a UFA in 2023. Better OL, hopefully better QB play, and a more run focused offense. In my books, he is a hold as a low end RB1/high end RB2 for 2022. I'm not sure the Bears will keep him into 2023 unless he absolutely lights it up this year. To answer your question, I'd value him somewhere in the 2022 low first rounder range. Take this all with a grain of salt from an admitted homer.
robb
Footballguy
Okay........just asking for comparison sake then:
Would RoJo be a better keeper than, say, Mattison-Minn or either of the 2 new Miami RBs in Edmonds or Mosteret??
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Might be happening:
https://twitter.com/chiefshive/status/1507141662534942726?s=21
”The #Chiefs are reportedly “likely” to add RB Ronald Jones.”
no idea how reliable a source “chiefs hive” Is…
or why the Chiefs have a “hive”
f or that matter.
https://twitter.com/chiefshive/status/1507141662534942726?s=21
”The #Chiefs are reportedly “likely” to add RB Ronald Jones.”
no idea how reliable a source “chiefs hive” Is…
or why the Chiefs have a “hive”
f or that matter.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Pretty much every amateur chiefs account is tweeting that within 24 hours Jones will be a chief, 
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Are we talking about the same Ronald Jones who averaged 4.2ypc as a backup last year? The one who didn't catch more than two balls in a game? The one who went 20/65 and 2 catches for 18 in his only game as a starter last year?
Okay yes he had a great 2020, but it was 2020. Go back to 2019 and he's got an identical 4.2ypc.
Give me the dart throw in the 4th round.
Okay yes he had a great 2020, but it was 2020. Go back to 2019 and he's got an identical 4.2ypc.
Give me the dart throw in the 4th round.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
If I were the Chiefs I rather would have McKinnon back, I thought he was a good fit in their offense.
