Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (12 Viewers)

[JohnnyU]

TE is Meh

And I think it's a potential all time class.

Kincaid, LaPorta, and Washington make for some dart throws in the 3rd and 4th. People drafted McBride and Trautman too early in years past. TE is risky. Mayer could end up another middle of the road fantasy producer. I hope better than that, because I have him in one DEVY league. He’s not that athletic.

 

[menobrown]

TE is Meh

And I think it's a potential all time class.

Kincaid, LaPorta, and Washington mke for some dart throws in the 3rd and fourth. People drafted McBride and Trautman too early in years past. TE is risky. Mayer could end up another middle of the road fantasy producer. I hope better than that, because I have him in one DEVY league. He’s not that athletic.

Ton's of other TE's you did not mention, it's absolutely loaded. I won't argue it's risky, riskiest position to spend premium picks on in dynasty leagues. Also IMO the number one position in the real NFL draft that actual NFL teams get wrong. But they will still make a chunk of late round 1 and round 2 of my mainly TE premium leagues and that impact will deepen the overall quality of the first/second round. There will be hits, there will be misses, but it's deep and not deep with a bunch of meh type's either.

As for McBride I don't see how you have arrived already at the conclusion he was drafted to early. He closed fairly strong relative to the learning curve of his position, just needed Ertz out of the way to grow his game a little. I was never that high on him as a prospect, but the presence of Ertz last year kept his value in check and even in a TE premium draft he was routinely a late second round pick, only time I drafted him was 2.10. I don't regret it.

 

[JohnnyU]

TE is Meh

And I think it's a potential all time class.

Kincaid, LaPorta, and Washington mke for some dart throws in the 3rd and fourth. People drafted McBride and Trautman too early in years past. TE is risky. Mayer could end up another middle of the road fantasy producer. I hope better than that, because I have him in one DEVY league. He’s not that athletic.

Ton's of other TE's you did not mention, it's absolutely loaded. I won't argue it's risky, riskiest position to spend premium picks on in dynasty leagues. Also IMO the number one position in the real NFL draft that actual NFL teams get wrong. But they will still make a chunk of late round 1 and round 2 of my mainly TE premium leagues and that impact will deepen the overall quality of the first/second round. There will be hits, there will be misses, but it's deep and not deep with a bunch of meh type's either.

As for McBride I don't see how you have arrived already at the conclusion he was drafted to early. He closed fairly strong relative to the learning curve of his position, just needed Ertz out of the way to grow his game a little. I was never that high on him as a prospect, but the presence of Ertz last year kept his value in check and even in a TE premium draft he was routinely a late second round pick, only time I drafted him was 2.10. I don't regret it.

What TEs do you like that I didn’t mention? Gilbert, Kuithe, Bell? I wouldn’t call this group great, but each to their own. I’d rather throw a dart at a RB, especially in this draft, where I think the RB class is strong.

 

[efactor]

Thoughts on Tua's value in a 1 QB league? Seems to be in the QB12 range in dynasty.

16 team league. Have a monster team except QB, where I rolled with Brady and Geno this year. It's also a contract league and Tua has 5 years left at a very reasonable price. Guy offering Tua is in a rebuild and wants picks 15 and 16. Seems fair considering the contract is good and hard to trade for a QB in this league. Just wondering what people think of Tua moving forward.

 

[menobrown]

What TEs do you like that I didn’t mention? Gilbert, Kuithe, Bell? I wouldn’t call this group great, but each to their own

Tucker Kraft and Musgrave would headline my list of TE's you did not mention with Schoonmaker next.

I’d rather throw a dart at a RB, especially in this draft, where I think the RB class is strong.

I mean I think most rate a high end RB prospect over a high end TE prospect due to difficulty hitting. But it does not work so evenly as to blindly just say I'd take a shot at a RB over a TE. Not when you might have 10 RB's off the board vs looking at being able to pick the second TE. And again, because I think you always view things out of your leagues angles, those of us in 1.5 TE PPR leagues put a higher value on them.

And my main point is in those TE premium league whether Johnny likes the TE's or not is not really that relevant because other people usually will in these leagues. I had responded to your post regarding the draft not being that strong in the early to middle second I believe. The depth and strength of the TE's's, as I said in TE premium leagues, is going to assist in helping that depth and I personally won't mind taking a dart throw at one myself in that range.

 

[foxco]

Thoughts on Tua's value in a 1 QB league? Seems to be in the QB12 range in dynasty.

16 team league. Have a monster team except QB, where I rolled with Brady and Geno this year. It's also a contract league and Tua has 5 years left at a very reasonable price. Guy offering Tua is in a rebuild and wants picks 15 and 16. Seems fair considering the contract is good and hard to trade for a QB in this league. Just wondering what people think of Tua moving forward.

I'd be fairly nervous with Tua as my starter. Think the offer's okay enough but IMO way more risk on your end, part of me wouldn't be surprised if Tua never played another down. Is there anyone else u could offer those picks for without the injury history? I just gave the 12th pick in a 1QB league (12 teams) straight up for Lawrence where the other guy was deep at QB.

 

[JohnnyU]

What TEs do you like that I didn’t mention? Gilbert, Kuithe, Bell? I wouldn’t call this group great, but each to their own

Tucker Kraft and Musgrave would headline my list of TE's you did not mention with Schoonmaker next.

I’d rather throw a dart at a RB, especially in this draft, where I think the RB class is strong.

I mean I think most rate a high end RB prospect over a high end TE prospect due to difficulty hitting. But it does not work so evenly as to blindly just say I'd take a shot at a RB over a TE. Not when you might have 10 RB's off the board vs looking at being able to pick the second TE. And again, because I think you always view things out of your leagues angles, those of us in 1.5 TE PPR leagues put a higher value on them.

And my main point is in those TE premium league whether Johnny likes the TE's or not is not really that relevant because other people usually will in these leagues. I had responded to your post regarding the draft not being that strong in the early to middle second I believe. The depth and strength of the TE's's, as I said in TE premium leagues, is going to assist in helping that depth and I personally won't mind taking a dart throw at one myself in that range.

My guess is that most TEs not named Mayer, Kincaid, and LaPorta will go undrafted, TE premium or not, In a 4 round rookie draft. Or at least they should. I would much rather draft someone like RB Ibrahim late in the draft than a TE not named one of the three I mentioned.

 

[Mitchie]

Thoughts on Tua's value in a 1 QB league? Seems to be in the QB12 range in dynasty.

16 team league. Have a monster team except QB, where I rolled with Brady and Geno this year. It's also a contract league and Tua has 5 years left at a very reasonable price. Guy offering Tua is in a rebuild and wants picks 15 and 16. Seems fair considering the contract is good and hard to trade for a QB in this league. Just wondering what people think of Tua moving forward.

yeah as other poster said Tua comes with decent amount of risk. keep in mind another hit to the head that would keep another QB out 1 game, could easily be 3 or 4. I'd rather have Geno.

 

[efactor]

Thoughts on Tua's value in a 1 QB league? Seems to be in the QB12 range in dynasty.

16 team league. Have a monster team except QB, where I rolled with Brady and Geno this year. It's also a contract league and Tua has 5 years left at a very reasonable price. Guy offering Tua is in a rebuild and wants picks 15 and 16. Seems fair considering the contract is good and hard to trade for a QB in this league. Just wondering what people think of Tua moving forward.

I'd be fairly nervous with Tua as my starter. Think the offer's okay enough but IMO way more risk on your end, part of me wouldn't be surprised if Tua never played another down. Is there anyone else u could offer those picks for without the injury history? I just gave the 12th pick in a 1QB league (12 teams) straight up for Lawrence where the other guy was deep at QB.

Thanks. Yeah, think I'm gonna pass

Appreciate it

 

[Boston]

What TEs do you like that I didn’t mention? Gilbert, Kuithe, Bell? I wouldn’t call this group great, but each to their own

Tucker Kraft and Musgrave would headline my list of TE's you did not mention with Schoonmaker next.

I’d rather throw a dart at a RB, especially in this draft, where I think the RB class is strong.

I mean I think most rate a high end RB prospect over a high end TE prospect due to difficulty hitting. But it does not work so evenly as to blindly just say I'd take a shot at a RB over a TE. Not when you might have 10 RB's off the board vs looking at being able to pick the second TE. And again, because I think you always view things out of your leagues angles, those of us in 1.5 TE PPR leagues put a higher value on them.

And my main point is in those TE premium league whether Johnny likes the TE's or not is not really that relevant because other people usually will in these leagues. I had responded to your post regarding the draft not being that strong in the early to middle second I believe. The depth and strength of the TE's's, as I said in TE premium leagues, is going to assist in helping that depth and I personally won't mind taking a dart throw at one myself in that range.

My guess is that most TEs not named Mayer, Kincaid, and LaPorta will go undrafted, TE premium or not, In a 4 round rookie draft. Or at least they should. I would much rather draft someone like RB Ibrahim late in the draft than a TE not named one of the three I mentioned.

Washington is worth a draft pick in a 4-round draft...especially in TE premium.

 

[menobrown]

y guess is that most TEs not named Mayer, Kincaid, and LaPorta will go undrafted, TE premium or not, In a 4 round rookie draft. Or at least they should. I would much rather draft someone like RB Ibrahim late in the draft than a TE not named one of the three I mentioned.

All your opinion and luckily none of it will have relevancy in my actual drafts.

 

[JohnnyU]

What TEs do you like that I didn’t mention? Gilbert, Kuithe, Bell? I wouldn’t call this group great, but each to their own

Tucker Kraft and Musgrave would headline my list of TE's you did not mention with Schoonmaker next.

I’d rather throw a dart at a RB, especially in this draft, where I think the RB class is strong.

I mean I think most rate a high end RB prospect over a high end TE prospect due to difficulty hitting. But it does not work so evenly as to blindly just say I'd take a shot at a RB over a TE. Not when you might have 10 RB's off the board vs looking at being able to pick the second TE. And again, because I think you always view things out of your leagues angles, those of us in 1.5 TE PPR leagues put a higher value on them.

And my main point is in those TE premium league whether Johnny likes the TE's or not is not really that relevant because other people usually will in these leagues. I had responded to your post regarding the draft not being that strong in the early to middle second I believe. The depth and strength of the TE's's, as I said in TE premium leagues, is going to assist in helping that depth and I personally won't mind taking a dart throw at one myself in that range.

My guess is that most TEs not named Mayer, Kincaid, and LaPorta will go undrafted, TE premium or not, In a 4 round rookie draft. Or at least they should. I would much rather draft someone like RB Ibrahim late in the draft than a TE not named one of the three I mentioned.

Washington is worth a draft pick in a 4-round draft...especially in TE premium.

Yeah I mentioned him earlier but not my last post. I wouldn’t be surprised if he went undrafted in most leagues however.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Thoughts on Tua's value in a 1 QB league? Seems to be in the QB12 range in dynasty.

I wouldn’t touch him with a 10’ pole.

I like his game more than I expected to, but that brain bucket of his doesn’t inspire confidence.

I’m deeply concerned about his career longevity.

 

[JohnnyU]

y guess is that most TEs not named Mayer, Kincaid, and LaPorta will go undrafted, TE premium or not, In a 4 round rookie draft. Or at least they should. I would much rather draft someone like RB Ibrahim late in the draft than a TE not named one of the three I mentioned.

All your opinion and luckily none of it will have relevancy in my actual drafts.

Isn’t that what we do on a fantasy football board?

 

[Boston]

What TEs do you like that I didn’t mention? Gilbert, Kuithe, Bell? I wouldn’t call this group great, but each to their own

Tucker Kraft and Musgrave would headline my list of TE's you did not mention with Schoonmaker next.

I’d rather throw a dart at a RB, especially in this draft, where I think the RB class is strong.

I mean I think most rate a high end RB prospect over a high end TE prospect due to difficulty hitting. But it does not work so evenly as to blindly just say I'd take a shot at a RB over a TE. Not when you might have 10 RB's off the board vs looking at being able to pick the second TE. And again, because I think you always view things out of your leagues angles, those of us in 1.5 TE PPR leagues put a higher value on them.

And my main point is in those TE premium league whether Johnny likes the TE's or not is not really that relevant because other people usually will in these leagues. I had responded to your post regarding the draft not being that strong in the early to middle second I believe. The depth and strength of the TE's's, as I said in TE premium leagues, is going to assist in helping that depth and I personally won't mind taking a dart throw at one myself in that range.

My guess is that most TEs not named Mayer, Kincaid, and LaPorta will go undrafted, TE premium or not, In a 4 round rookie draft. Or at least they should. I would much rather draft someone like RB Ibrahim late in the draft than a TE not named one of the three I mentioned.

Washington is worth a draft pick in a 4-round draft...especially in TE premium.

Yeah I mentioned him earlier but not my last post. I wouldn’t be surprised if he went undrafted in most leagues however.

I think he is a real wildcard...combine and when and where he gets drafted will have a big say on his value...I could see his value really taking off if things fall right.

 

[JohnnyU]

What TEs do you like that I didn’t mention? Gilbert, Kuithe, Bell? I wouldn’t call this group great, but each to their own

Tucker Kraft and Musgrave would headline my list of TE's you did not mention with Schoonmaker next.

I’d rather throw a dart at a RB, especially in this draft, where I think the RB class is strong.

I mean I think most rate a high end RB prospect over a high end TE prospect due to difficulty hitting. But it does not work so evenly as to blindly just say I'd take a shot at a RB over a TE. Not when you might have 10 RB's off the board vs looking at being able to pick the second TE. And again, because I think you always view things out of your leagues angles, those of us in 1.5 TE PPR leagues put a higher value on them.

And my main point is in those TE premium league whether Johnny likes the TE's or not is not really that relevant because other people usually will in these leagues. I had responded to your post regarding the draft not being that strong in the early to middle second I believe. The depth and strength of the TE's's, as I said in TE premium leagues, is going to assist in helping that depth and I personally won't mind taking a dart throw at one myself in that range.

My guess is that most TEs not named Mayer, Kincaid, and LaPorta will go undrafted, TE premium or not, In a 4 round rookie draft. Or at least they should. I would much rather draft someone like RB Ibrahim late in the draft than a TE not named one of the three I mentioned.

Washington is worth a draft pick in a 4-round draft...especially in TE premium.

Yeah I mentioned him earlier but not my last post. I wouldn’t be surprised if he went undrafted in most leagues however.

I think he is a real wildcard...combine and when and where he gets drafted will have a big say on his value...I could see his value really taking off if things fall right.

Yes, I agree, but a lot has to happen. TEs are so damned risky for fantasy.

 

[menobrown]

y guess is that most TEs not named Mayer, Kincaid, and LaPorta will go undrafted, TE premium or not, In a 4 round rookie draft. Or at least they should. I would much rather draft someone like RB Ibrahim late in the draft than a TE not named one of the three I mentioned.

All your opinion and luckily none of it will have relevancy in my actual drafts.

Isn’t that what we do on a fantasy football board?

I don't get your point. Your opinion and nothing discussed on this board will have any impact on how my drafts will unfold.

As for opinions yes but I care more about having conversations and hearing other's opinions when it's not just based on the world according to them.

 

[Boston]

What TEs do you like that I didn’t mention? Gilbert, Kuithe, Bell? I wouldn’t call this group great, but each to their own

Tucker Kraft and Musgrave would headline my list of TE's you did not mention with Schoonmaker next.

I’d rather throw a dart at a RB, especially in this draft, where I think the RB class is strong.

I mean I think most rate a high end RB prospect over a high end TE prospect due to difficulty hitting. But it does not work so evenly as to blindly just say I'd take a shot at a RB over a TE. Not when you might have 10 RB's off the board vs looking at being able to pick the second TE. And again, because I think you always view things out of your leagues angles, those of us in 1.5 TE PPR leagues put a higher value on them.

And my main point is in those TE premium league whether Johnny likes the TE's or not is not really that relevant because other people usually will in these leagues. I had responded to your post regarding the draft not being that strong in the early to middle second I believe. The depth and strength of the TE's's, as I said in TE premium leagues, is going to assist in helping that depth and I personally won't mind taking a dart throw at one myself in that range.

My guess is that most TEs not named Mayer, Kincaid, and LaPorta will go undrafted, TE premium or not, In a 4 round rookie draft. Or at least they should. I would much rather draft someone like RB Ibrahim late in the draft than a TE not named one of the three I mentioned.

Washington is worth a draft pick in a 4-round draft...especially in TE premium.

Yeah I mentioned him earlier but not my last post. I wouldn’t be surprised if he went undrafted in most leagues however.

I think he is a real wildcard...combine and when and where he gets drafted will have a big say on his value...I could see his value really taking off if things fall right.

Yes, I agree, but a lot has to happen. TEs are so damned risky for fantasy.

Agree...but if you can hit on one with a 3rd or 4th round pick your life just got a lot easier.

 

[menobrown]

Washington is worth a draft pick in a 4-round draft...especially in TE premium.

Hard to judge him because the stats were meager but the way Georgia spreads it out no one ever has massive stats. If we rely just on NFL teams valuation that might be fool's gold in fantasy because his blocking is a major strength so his value to them may not equate to his value for us.

But saying all that he's still got major upside and I can't see a scenario he makes it out of round 3 of TE premium leagues, my guess right now is he won't make it out of 2 but that's possible.

 

[JohnnyU]

y guess is that most TEs not named Mayer, Kincaid, and LaPorta will go undrafted, TE premium or not, In a 4 round rookie draft. Or at least they should. I would much rather draft someone like RB Ibrahim late in the draft than a TE not named one of the three I mentioned.

All your opinion and luckily none of it will have relevancy in my actual drafts.

Isn’t that what we do on a fantasy football board?

I don't get your point. Your opinion and nothing discussed on this board will have any impact on how my drafts will unfold.

As for opinions yes but I care more about having conversations and hearing other's opinions when it's not just based on the world according to them.

I never mentioned how any of your drafts will unfold. I did however give my opinion on how drafts may unfold with regards to TEs in this draft. Of course there are differing opinions, always will be, so I respect that.

 

[Boston]

Washington is worth a draft pick in a 4-round draft...especially in TE premium.

Hard to judge him because the stats were meager but the way Georgia spreads it out no one ever has massive stats. If we rely just on NFL teams valuation that might be fool's gold in fantasy because his blocking is a major strength so his value to them may not equate to his value for us.

But saying all that he's still got major upside and I can't see a scenario he makes it out of round 3 of TE premium leagues, my guess right now is he won't make it out of 2 but that's possible.

Agree 100% which is why I would not roll the dice on a high pick or take him over a legit prospect at another position but once they are gone he is worth a dice roll...this kid is a physical freak and I don't think it is a reach to see a scenario where he becomes a red zone monster.

 

[JohnnyU]

Washington is worth a draft pick in a 4-round draft...especially in TE premium.

Hard to judge him because the stats were meager but the way Georgia spreads it out no one ever has massive stats. If we rely just on NFL teams valuation that might be fool's gold in fantasy because his blocking is a major strength so his value to them may not equate to his value for us.

But saying all that he's still got major upside and I can't see a scenario he makes it out of round 3 of TE premium leagues, my guess right now is he won't make it out of 2 but that's possible.

Agree 100% which is why I would not roll the dice on a high pick or take him over a legit prospect at another position but once they are gone he is worth a dice roll...this kid is a physical freak and I don't think it is a reach to see a scenario where he becomes a red zone monster.

Nothing wrong with throwing a dart late in the draft

 

[jm192]

There is a group of "stud" RB that are hitting the age of 27-28. Some were great, some were good. Curious to see people's thoughts are on them for next year.

Buy-Sell-Hold

Henry
Ekeler
Chubb
Kamara
Cook
Conner
Elliot
Jamaal Williams
Aaron Jones

I have 3 of these guys (Henry, Conner, Jones) in one Win Now FFPC league with 2 flex spots, so I can start up to 4 RBs. They are all HOLDs for me.

ETA: they’d become SELLs if my team next year goes off the rails in the first 5 weeks or so, in which case that would be a forcing factor in a rebuild.

The problem with that equation is that of your team goes off the rails next year it will likely be because of those dudes.

Ya might wanna take the Bill Walsh philosophy here and sell a year too early rather than a year too late.

I get it. But I’ve gone back to back and I’m hoping for a 3-peat with a Win Now core of:
Josh Allen, Henry, AJones, Najee, Conner, Adams, Evans, Schultz

so I get the ”better to sell a year early than a year late” stance but I’m almost in a “run these vets into the ground” state of mind to see if I can pull it off one more time. If next year starts off in the crapper, then I’d rather sell in-season to another team that‘s winning, who might pay a little extra for an old RB they hope will put them over the top, than selling “old RBs“ in the off-season when folks are dreaming of drafting young new toys. I know I’m painting with a broad brush, but you catch my drift.

I mean, that’s a choice too.

1. Ride the horses until they drop, cash another ship & start over
2. Sell and take your chances with an influx of youth & hope to not miss a beat competitively.

I’m squarely in camp 2, but I understand that comes with risk.

But don’t pretend Camp 1 doesn’t also come with risk. You could ride those horses into the ground and *not* 3-peat.

Then they’re another year older and worth that much less in trade. Or worse, one of the old horses comes up lame & then they’re not just worth less, but worthless.

There are 2 schools of thought, but a myriad of possible outcomes.

The easy route is to stand pat, hope they stay healthy & productive so if your team isn’t getting it done you can deal them mid-season.

Obviously the risk there is they fall off a cliff or get hurt, as older RBs are wont to do.

I like the idea of cashing out before worst case scenarios happen. I did it with Mike Evans (though he’s had some moments) DHop 2 years ago (absolutely no regrets), Carson early 2021, ARob early 2021, and several other players. I also sold Brady for not a lot his last year with NEP, and that wasn’t my best move ever so it can absolutely backfire.

But more often than not, moving older players for youth & picks has worked out for me, so that’s why I prefer that option. But I won’t tell ya what to do with your team. If you believe they’ll take you to the promised land one more time, go for it. But every year it gets riskier.

Great post.

I look at dynasty like a stock portfolio. Except you know some of your best stocks will one day be worthless.

So getting future value instead of letting them turn to zero’s on your team is a huge win.

Of course we all want to win the championship. But I think the real focus should be on keeping/adding value on your team. The championships become a side effect of that.

 

[rockaction]

2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft: First Look

Welcome to the first in a series of dynasty content pieces here on 4for4. We at dynastyleaguefootball.com (DLF) are excited to see our partnership with 4for4 expand to bring you relevant dynasty content to keep you engaged all off-season. In 2006, I co-founded DLF and we’re still going strong...

www.4for4.com

Money quote:

2023 Overview​

As the 2021 regular season came to a close, a lot of dynasty players were looking beyond the 2022 NFL Draft to 2023. Boasting greater perceived depth at every position, many were quick to sell out of 2022 draft picks and roll them forward to 2023. Given the predicted strength of 2023 when compared to 2022, it was the first off-season I can recall in almost a decade where rookie selections weren’t carrying the premium normally seen.

As the 2022 collegiate season played out, the erosion of 2023’s rookie premium became a consistent theme. As the college season came to a close, the hype and value of the class were a fraction of what they were only a few short months before. As a keen evaluator of talent and depth of class, I came to the same conclusion, as well. Generally, I’m disappointed. That’s not to say there won’t be significant impact players from this year’s rookie class, but identifying them prior to understanding their drafted situation is going to be a difficult proposition.

 

[smbkrypt24]

2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft: First Look

Welcome to the first in a series of dynasty content pieces here on 4for4. We at dynastyleaguefootball.com (DLF) are excited to see our partnership with 4for4 expand to bring you relevant dynasty content to keep you engaged all off-season. In 2006, I co-founded DLF and we’re still going strong...

www.4for4.com

Money quote:

2023 Overview​

As the 2021 regular season came to a close, a lot of dynasty players were looking beyond the 2022 NFL Draft to 2023. Boasting greater perceived depth at every position, many were quick to sell out of 2022 draft picks and roll them forward to 2023. Given the predicted strength of 2023 when compared to 2022, it was the first off-season I can recall in almost a decade where rookie selections weren’t carrying the premium normally seen.

As the 2022 collegiate season played out, the erosion of 2023’s rookie premium became a consistent theme. As the college season came to a close, the hype and value of the class were a fraction of what they were only a few short months before. As a keen evaluator of talent and depth of class, I came to the same conclusion, as well. Generally, I’m disappointed. That’s not to say there won’t be significant impact players from this year’s rookie class, but identifying them prior to understanding their drafted situation is going to be a difficult proposition.

Do you have to identify them before prior to their drafted situation? As in, are you in a league that does a rookie draft prior to the NFL draft?
One big factor I have in my rookie rankings is draft capital along with depth chart of the team. It can be a big tiebreaker for me to look at the immediate impact I Think players will have on their new team. I am not against having guys develop on my bench, but the correlation to long term success at key positions is early success.

 

[TartanLion]

took him in my main league. Oof.

I traded for him.

Hopeful his 2nd year is more involved.

I traded for him as well off the back of two 6 target games in a row. He then disappeared completely again for several weeks before looking like he was having a good game until the hand laceration. I believe in the O obviously, he has blistering speed and bucket sized hands. I’m bullish that he can have a 2nd season break out but it would be nice to see him have some involvement during the playoffs

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

took him in my main league. Oof.

I traded for him.

Hopeful his 2nd year is more involved.

I traded for him as well off the back of two 6 target games in a row. He then disappeared completely again for several weeks before looking like he was having a good game until the hand laceration. I believe in the O obviously, he has blistering speed and bucket sized hands. I’m bullish that he can have a 2nd season break out but it would be nice to see him have some involvement during the playoffs

IMO targets will have to be vacated - it seems like it’s a bit similar to Gabe Davis’ first couple years where the team was in a playoff window and didn’t trust a rookie so they brought in a vet.

Fortunately MVS isn’t exactly a game breaking talent, JJSS has been good but isn’t a deep threat (2023 UFA), Toney is made of glass, Hardman has been a bust (2023 FA) - I think some targets open up next year. McKinnon is also a UFA along with Justin Watson.

Given his usage on ST, and occasionally being worked in, plus his 2nd round draft capital, I like his chances for future relevance.

 

[rockaction]

Do you have to identify them before prior to their drafted situation? As in, are you in a league that does a rookie draft prior to the NFL draft?
One big factor I have in my rookie rankings is draft capital along with depth chart of the team. It can be a big tiebreaker for me to look at the immediate impact I Think players will have on their new team. I am not against having guys develop on my bench, but the correlation to long term success at key positions is early success.

No for both leagues I'm in. We draft them immediately after the draft in one, and we wait until the second week of preseason for the other. That said, for the first one and relevant to your first question, it is important to have a pre-draft evaluation, because we get about a week from when the NFL draft ends until we draft, which is before a lot of rankings adjust. Therefore, we have to adjust on the fly and according to our own sort of volition. It's a harder draft that way.

So that said, we do get the luxury of knowing where they're going, but often times it's only useful for the obvious players where a defined situation can inform the draft position. Otherwise, you have to do a talent evaluation without the situation being known, because free agency isn't done yet, nor are cuts, etc. You're really playing a game where foresight isn't even coming into it. It's just luck and what the NFL teams want at some point.

So you want guys that are situation-proof. That's what I think Jeff Haverlack is getting at in the article. There aren't as many of those guys this year as we initially thought. And that's where 2023 gets a bit hinky. It's dependent upon situation, he's saying, which isn't a death knell, but certainly doesn't help drafters like me in that one league.

That's just one article, though. I thought it was relevant to the discussion upthread because it seemed to bolster Johnny U's (and my) point, which I'm almost never against. Heh. But other places may have different evals and see things different ways for different leauges. meno's point about the TEs is something to consider, as is the point about Superflex and there being a bunch of good QBs pushing the positional talent down the board, which is in stark contrast to last year.

 

[rockaction]

I posted over in the 2023 discussion thread. I watched a bunch of RB highlights, and it strikes me that this class is indeed pretty deep, so that should make later firsts a nice luxury to have. I think some of the RBs, including the later ones, are really good. It's the WRs in this class people are complaining about, and it just seems like you'll be able to add quality RBs for lower draft capital than normal. Of course, that all depends on your evaluation of these backs and how they compare to '20, '21, and '22, but I think this class is the deepest of all of those from first blush. I'm seeing guys ranked around forty overall in rookie drafts that look otherworldly in highlights.

That's really an amateur's opinion, but I wouldn't be surprised if that opinion was fortified once the ranking sites and film guys have had their evidentiary say in the fantasy community.

 

[Boston]

I posted over in the 2023 discussion thread. I watched a bunch of RB highlights, and it strikes me that this class is indeed pretty deep, so that should make later firsts a nice luxury to have. I think some of the RBs, including the later ones, are really good. It's the WRs in this class people are complaining about, and it just seems like you'll be able to add quality RBs for lower draft capital than normal. Of course, that all depends on your evaluation of these backs and how they compare to '20, '21, and '22, but I think this class is the deepest of all of those from first blush. I'm seeing guys ranked around forty overall in rookie drafts that look otherworldly in highlights.

That's really an amateur's opinion, but I wouldn't be surprised if that opinion was fortified once the ranking sites and film guys have had their evidentiary say in the fantasy community.

Agree with that...and here is what scares me...I find a lot of "fantasy gurus" pretend to know more than they do about RBs (amazing how smart you sound when you use the current buzz words) and many of them live for hanging their hat on an unknown gem rather than keeping things simple...after Bijan and Gibbs there is a very sizable chunk of RBs that look the part but as we all know for every Dameon Pierce there will be an Isiah Spiller...I think many Owners are gonna have to step up, rip the bandaid off this offseason and trust their own instincts,

 

[rockaction]

I think many Owners are gonna have to step up, rip the bandaid off this offseason and trust their own instincts,

Nice post, and I think so, too, but doesn't that partly mean hanging your hat on unknown gems? I mean, if you're not going consensus, then you're probably going with the unknown. I don't know, maybe you're thinking that you've got to trust yourself amongst the known commodities.

I was saying that because at first blush there was a guy or two I found way better than consensus, though to be fair, I'd gotten their names from PFN Network, so maybe that just makes me hipper to different rankings.

 

[Boston]

I think many Owners are gonna have to step up, rip the bandaid off this offseason and trust their own instincts,

Nice post, and I think so, too, but doesn't that partly mean hanging your hat on unknown gems? I mean, if you're not going consensus, then you're probably going with the unknown. I don't know, maybe you're thinking that you've got to trust yourself amongst the known commodities.

I was saying that because at first blush there was a guy or two I found way better than consensus, though to be fair, I'd gotten their names from PFN Network, so maybe that just makes me hipper to different rankings.

It definitely does...I know I am loving McIntosh and Spears as of now...my point is more about the fact that I feel some of the "experts" are more concerned about that aspect of things/try to do that to validate that they are smarter than everyone else, so I don't trust their end game...that is why you just gotta take it all in and make the decision yourself.

 

[Buckna]

Seems as if people soured on the WR’s and QB’s for the ‘23 class but now everyone wants be the first contrarian to say after the fact “the hype was out of control.” Also helps the ‘22 class turned out better than expected. The RB’s look great and deep led by two top flight prospects one of whom is good enough to be considered a possible first half of 1st round of the nfl draft, we may have two 1st round TE’s, and at least four to five 1st round WR’s. Gonna be a very good crop.

 

[rockaction]

Seems as if people soured on the WR’s and QB’s for the ‘23 class but now everyone wants be the first contrarian to say after the fact “the hype was out of control.” Also helps the ‘22 class turned out better than expected.

Some of the writers might be saying that. Personally, I had put my metaphorical money where my mouth is about '22 and '23. I held on to a bunch of '22 picks (even though I likely would have moved one or two picks) and drafted at 1.09, 1.12, 2.1, and 2.2 for '22 and sold a lot of '23 picks in the later rounds early and throughout this year. I'd also argued on this board that the '22 class would be better than people were giving it credit for, especially after the combine.

But that was me being a bit contrarian, which is my normal self. I never get overhyped things and I stick up for the put-upon, so it came naturally that I would view it that way. So I'm not sure if it was prescience and process or just a knee-jerk response. I had also lamented that I couldn't sell my '22 picks in that range at times, because even though I personally thought these guys looked good, the community as a whole was down on them. So I'd like to think prescience and process, but I know what I don't know, and that's quite a lot (me not knowing). That said, I was kidding about '23 as soon as I heard JSN ran about in the 4.5s, which was last year. Didn't make sense he was the best receiver in his class. We shall see.

And the story is not told about '23 yet. Long time to go, lots of stuff to be sorted out. RB looks deep.

 

[Ilov80s]

Seems like all the 2 years of "trade anything for 2023 rookie picks" was quite misguided unless you landed 1.01 or maybe 1.02. Wonder if this is going to be a good time to get a deal on them for people with buyers remorse?

 

[Buckna]

Seems as if people soured on the WR’s and QB’s for the ‘23 class but now everyone wants be the first contrarian to say after the fact “the hype was out of control.” Also helps the ‘22 class turned out better than expected.

Some of the writers might be saying that. Personally, I had put my metaphorical money where my mouth is about '22 and '23. I held on to a bunch of '22 picks (even though I likely would have moved one or two picks) and drafted at 1.09, 1.12, 2.1, and 2.2 for '22 and sold a lot of '23 picks in the later rounds early and throughout this year. I'd also argued on this board that the '22 class would be better than people were giving it credit for, especially after the combine.

But that was me being a bit contrarian, which is my normal self. I never get overhyped things and I stick up for the put-upon, so it came naturally that I would view it that way. So I'm not sure if it was prescience and process or just a knee-jerk response. I had also lamented that I couldn't sell my '22 picks in that range at times, because even though I personally thought these guys looked good, the community as a whole was down on them. So I'd like to think prescience and process, but I know what I don't know, and that's quite a lot (me not knowing). That said, I was kidding about '23 as soon as I heard JSN ran about in the 4.5s, which was last year. Didn't make sense he was the best receiver in his class. We shall see.

And the story is not told about '23 yet. Long time to go, lots of stuff to be sorted out. RB looks deep.

It definitely got very tilted to ‘23, even so much that I remember discussion on here that it was worthwhile to maybe target the ‘22 picks at a possible discount. I know I did that to land Walker where I could, I should have targeted more of the WR’s in hindsight (personally I was focused on Jameson which didn’t work out so well for year 1.) Biggest issue in my leagues was getting people to give up their ‘23 picks, they held them with an iron grip due to all the hype. But now it’s starting to tilt the other way, this class may not be the greatest ever as it was once touted, but it still looks very good.

 

[rockaction]

It definitely got very tilted to ‘23

Oh, no doubt. I felt like an idiot having all those picks at the end of the first when almost every analyst was saying to trade out of them. I felt like I was holding the bag because consensus was so heavy towards '23 and against '22. I remember some of the more prominent analysts saying that they wouldn't be caught dead holding 1.09-2.2. That you should trade down and pick up dart throws.

So yeah, I definitely remember the full tilt on '23 guys. You couldn't even get the premium by trading back a year. A 1.11 '22 was worth the 1.11 in '23, and only that and if that.

Strange what a year does.

 

[Blick]

Seems like all the 2 years of "trade anything for 2023 rookie picks" was quite misguided unless you landed 1.01 or maybe 1.02. Wonder if this is going to be a good time to get a deal on them for people with buyers remorse?

I'm not sure if I agree with this completely. If I remember correctly I heard a lot of "experts" saying the 2022 1.07 was about the line where they would trade for any 23. I think that actually seems pretty accurate given the consensus top 8 were: Hall, Walker, London, Walker, Burks, Williams, WIlson, and Olave. Even now, I generally think there's a tier break behind these guys (you could move Burks out). I likely move any player after the above for even a late 23 (except maybe Watson who was typically in at the 1st/2nd round turn in 22.

 

[JoeJoe88]

Seems like all the 2 years of "trade anything for 2023 rookie picks" was quite misguided unless you landed 1.01 or maybe 1.02. Wonder if this is going to be a good time to get a deal on them for people with buyers remorse?

I’d take advantage if you can.

Though, I think most savvy dynasty players realize this class is really, really good, particularly in SF or 2QB formats.

And anyone who is legitimately not sold on this class, it still would not be wise to sell now. These picks will rise exponentially as we get closer to your rookie drafts. It literally happens every year.

 

[Ilov80s]

Seems like all the 2 years of "trade anything for 2023 rookie picks" was quite misguided unless you landed 1.01 or maybe 1.02. Wonder if this is going to be a good time to get a deal on them for people with buyers remorse?

I'm not sure if I agree with this completely. If I remember correctly I heard a lot of "experts" saying the 2022 1.07 was about the line where they would trade for any 23. I think that actually seems pretty accurate given the consensus top 8 were: Hall, Walker, London, Walker, Burks, Williams, WIlson, and Olave. Even now, I generally think there's a tier break behind these guys (you could move Burks out). I likely move any player after the above for even a late 23 (except maybe Watson who was typically in at the 1st/2nd round turn in 22.

Maybe my memory is wrong or we listen to different people but I heard a lot of 2021 and 22 were weak and 23 was the class to get. I do think 22 rose a bit in estimation after the juiced up combine numbers.

 

[Blick]

Seems like all the 2 years of "trade anything for 2023 rookie picks" was quite misguided unless you landed 1.01 or maybe 1.02. Wonder if this is going to be a good time to get a deal on them for people with buyers remorse?

I'm not sure if I agree with this completely. If I remember correctly I heard a lot of "experts" saying the 2022 1.07 was about the line where they would trade for any 23. I think that actually seems pretty accurate given the consensus top 8 were: Hall, Walker, London, Walker, Burks, Williams, WIlson, and Olave. Even now, I generally think there's a tier break behind these guys (you could move Burks out). I likely move any player after the above for even a late 23 (except maybe Watson who was typically in at the 1st/2nd round turn in 22.

Maybe my memory is wrong or we listen to different people but I heard a lot of 2021 and 22 were weak and 23 was the class to get. I do think 22 rose a bit in estimation after the juiced up combine numbers.

Agree that 22 was perceived to be weak. However, I'm not sure anyone was advocating to move early 22 1's for 23s.

 

[Ilov80s]

Agree that 22 was perceived to be weak. However, I'm not sure anyone was advocating to move early 22 1's for 23s.

Oh I am not saying it went quite that far. There was definite excitement for some players last year.I just thought the strategy I heard in 21 and 22 was accumulate 23 picks because it's so special. I think it got overhyped for some reason.

 

[Ilov80s]

This years class was probably hurt by Zach Evans not getting the workload expected, Tank Bigsby staying a bit flat in his arc, Boutte underwhelming and JSN not playing. The question is were we right on those prospects a year ago and they were limited by circumstances?

 

[rockaction]

I just thought the strategy I heard in 21 and 22 was accumulate 23 picks because it's so special. I think it got overhyped for some reason.

I don't think you're misremembering because I remember the same thing. It was really about trying to turn '21 and '22 picks into early '23 picks if you could ascertain that the teams holding those picks would stay that way (they often don't). But '23 picks were at a premium, last year especially.

Again, not to say that original consensus won't be right. They could very well wind up worth more in fantasy, especially if the running back class is really deep. And as JoeJoe88 points out above, the picks for '23 won't hit their full value until right around the combine and then again during our drafts. There was a very nicely-illustrated guide over at either Dynasty Nerds or DLF that shows the value of picks as the year goes along.

It's Dynasty Nerds, and it's this article, about halfway down. It shows in pictorial form what we sort of already know.

How to Play Dynasty Fantasy Football | Vol 3: Rookie Draft, Rookie Picks, and a Brief Scouting Primer - Dynasty Nerds

Have questions about handling the rookie draft, draft picks, or scouting prospects? We have answers.

www.dynastynerds.com

 

[menobrown]

This years class was probably hurt by Zach Evans not getting the workload expected, Tank Bigsby staying a bit flat in his arc, Boutte underwhelming and JSN not playing. The question is were we right on those prospects a year ago and they were limited by circumstances?

My simple take. The WR's, even this time last year, was not projected as a strength of this class and that turned out to be true. We are so used to so much WR talent, especially coming off a year like last year where in most 12 teams non-SF leagues 9 of the first round picks were WR. Just think the WR dropoff has some people a little more down on this class then they expected.

But to me, and I'm saying this is how I felt last year, what made the 2023 draft strong was the primarily the RB's with a little assist from the TE's. For the most part I feel like that's held.

I think I've said this a lot but this draft class is extremely similar to 2017 to me. Both super deep at RB and TE. That 2017 draft in a lot of my leagues only produced 2 first round WR's in a lot of my rookie drafts, Mike Williams and Corey Davis with John Ross sometimes sneaking into the group. I'm mainly in TE premium leagues and most of my first rounds that year went 7-9 RB's, 3 TE's and 2-3 WR's. I think this year will be similar.

I always like to note when comping this draft to the 2017 draft there was a ton of gold to be found in the second round and later that year. Players like Kupp, Godwin, Kittle, Conner, JuJu. Not a single one of those players was a first round pick in any of my leagues, some lasting till the third. In part because the RB depth pushed them back. I doubt we'll have that kind of second round or later gold this year, that may hard to duplicate again ever but when I'm comping this class to the 2017 draft I'm not talking about that group, more the first round group. Some of those players were third round picks, Kittle a 5-7th in TE premium leagues and half the people who drafted him cut or gave up on him to early.

 

[Ilov80s]

My simple take. The WR's, even this time last year, was not projected as a strength of this class and that turned out to be true. We are so used to so much WR talent, especially coming off a year like last year where in most 12 teams non-SF leagues 9 of the first round picks were WR. Just think the WR dropoff has some people a little more down on this class then they expected.

But to me, and I'm saying this is how I felt last year, what made the 2023 draft strong was the primarily the RB's with a little assist from the TE's. For the most part I feel like that's held.

I think I've said this a lot but this draft class is extremely similar to 2017 to me. Both super deep at RB and TE. That 2017 draft in a lot of my leagues only produced 2 first round WR's in a lot of my rookie drafts, Mike Williams and Corey Davis with John Ross sometimes sneaking into the group. I'm mainly in TE premium leagues and most of my first rounds that year went 7-9 RB's, 3 TE's and 2-3 WR's. I think this year will be similar.

I always like to note when comping this draft to the 2017 draft there was a ton of gold to be found in the second round and later that year. Players like Kupp, Godwin, Kittle, Conner , JuJu. Not a single one of those players was a first round pick in any of my leagues, some lasting till the third. In part because the RB depth pushed them back. I doubt we'll have that kind of second round or later gold this year, that may hard to duplicate again ever but when I'm comping this class to the 2017 draft I'm not talking about that group, more the first round group. Some of those players were third round picks, Kittle a 5-7th in TE premium leagues and half the people who drafted him cut or gave up on him to early.

That is very true and ironic. If you knew nothing about football the last 5 years and just looked to see 3 WRs drafted in the Top 10, you would have assumed it was considered one of the great WR classes and they were top 5 dynasty pick locks, all in play for 1.01. That sure was not the case. More of a case of teams chasing a historic 2016 class.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This years class was probably hurt by Zach Evans not getting the workload expected, Tank Bigsby staying a bit flat in his arc, Boutte underwhelming and JSN not playing. The question is were we right on those prospects a year ago and they were limited by circumstances?

My simple take. The WR's, even this time last year, was not projected as a strength of this class and that turned out to be true. We are so used to so much WR talent, especially coming off a year like last year where in most 12 teams non-SF leagues 9 of the first round picks were WR. Just think the WR dropoff has some people a little more down on this class then they expected.

But to me, and I'm saying this is how I felt last year, what made the 2023 draft strong was the primarily the RB's with a little assist from the TE's. For the most part I feel like that's held.

I think I've said this a lot but this draft class is extremely similar to 2017 to me. Both super deep at RB and TE. That 2017 draft in a lot of my leagues only produced 2 first round WR's in a lot of my rookie drafts, Mike Williams and Corey Davis with John Ross sometimes sneaking into the group. I'm mainly in TE premium leagues and most of my first rounds that year went 7-9 RB's, 3 TE's and 2-3 WR's. I think this year will be similar.

I always like to note when comping this draft to the 2017 draft there was a ton of gold to be found in the second round and later that year. Players like Kupp, Godwin, Kittle, Conner, JuJu. Not a single one of those players was a first round pick in any of my leagues, some lasting till the third. In part because the RB depth pushed them back. I doubt we'll have that kind of second round or later gold this year, that may hard to duplicate again ever but when I'm comping this class to the 2017 draft I'm not talking about that group, more the first round group. Some of those players were third round picks, Kittle a 5-7th in TE premium leagues and half the people who drafted him cut or gave up on him to early.

Largely agree - I have it about 20 players deep - deeper when considering TE-P with several solid prospects behind Meyers (who rightfully is getting all the attention)

I think a few 2nd round (FF rookie draft) WR are going to have a great chance to pop in the NFL & for FF purposes - guys like Downs, Flowers, Rice, Hyatt, maybe Tillman & Mims, possibly Rakim Jarrett - it’s a somewhat deeper class than people give it credit for, presumably because everyone is obsessing over the presumed 1st tier of Johnston, Addison & JSN (in whatever order).

But with Boutte declaring, that’s 11 WR who could be impactful in the NFL - of course landing spot is more important to everyone after the top 4, but it would seem foolish to write them off as a weak class, especially before we know what team they’re going to play for.

Just like the NFL is changing how they view RBs, it’s worth noting that smaller/faster WR are starting to come into their own in the NFL as well.

Add to that the potentially ridiculous depth at RB, and as many as 4x 1st round QB, 2023 is shaping up to be a remarkable draft.

I don’t understand the very recent wave of negativity about a draft class that hasn’t been drafted, and hasn’t played a snap. Seems a little silly.

 

[JoeJoe88]

Where are we at with Tee Higgins? What would need to be added in a SF league to the 1.08 to land him? 2.01 get it done? 24’ 1st?

 

[Boston]

Where are we at with Tee Higgins? What would need to be added in a SF league to the 1.08 to land him? 2.01 get it done? 24’ 1st?

He is a top 10 dynasty WR...he is 24 years old and playing with an elite QB...due to that I would not really just be eying draft picks for him unless one was in the top 4 in SF... overall I would need to end up with two pieces that are either already very good or have a ton of upside.

 

[massraider]

No for both leagues I'm in. We draft them immediately after the draft in one, and we wait until the second week of preseason for the other. That said, for the first one and relevant to your first question, it is important to have a pre-draft evaluation, because we get about a week from when the NFL draft ends until we draft, which is before a lot of rankings adjust

All my dynasty leagues draft soon after the draft, and I love it, because I really consume everything draft after the playoffs. If you are kind of casual with following the draft, it really hurts you after the 2nd round of your rookie draft.