candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
Fair enough, thanks again!
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Of course in Canadian trades, the exchange rate is slightly different, so you have to factor that in as well, eh?
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
I try, but the exchange is brutal right now!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Maybe if you throw in some poutine as a pot sweetener?
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
Must be cheese curds, then we could get something happening!Maybe if you throw in some poutine as a pot sweetener?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Philosophy + value Q that’s vexing me:
12 team SF, PPR, Full rebuild. I need QB, RB, WR to add to ETN, Higgins, ARSB, Pitts, Pacheco, GDavis, Mattison, KJO, juJohnson, Likely, ZWilson and a few other pieces.
I have picks 1-4, 8, 10, 13, 2.01, 3.01, etc
Pending combine & NFL draft I’m tentatively planning on Bijan + 2 QB.
Gibbs & JSN are my next 2 favorites, but landing spot for Addison/Johnston could change that.
Assuming a highly desirable FF landing spot for both Gibbs (let’s say Miami) & the WR1, I’ll likely have 3 options:
1. Take the Gibbs at 4, hope a Levis and/or Richardson goes 5-6-7 & take best of the 1st tier WR at 8, then take another shot at WR at 10 (Downs/Boutte), then BPA 2.01 (assuming I don’t deal any of these picks). Obvious risk that the draft goes 5-6-7 WR-WR-WR & I’m stuck at 8 with a pocket full of wishes.
2. Take the WR1 at 4 , confident that in a RB deep draft I’ll be able to land the RB3 or 4 at 1.08
3. Preliminary discussions give me the impression that I could potentially deal picks 1.08+2.01 for the 1.05 and get both RB2 & WR1, at the cost of 2.01, which could still be a really good player.
Which of these options would you do? Is 2.01+1.08 good value for 1.05? It feels like it, but it also feels like I need more players, not fewer right now.
12 team SF, PPR, Full rebuild. I need QB, RB, WR to add to ETN, Higgins, ARSB, Pitts, Pacheco, GDavis, Mattison, KJO, juJohnson, Likely, ZWilson and a few other pieces.
I have picks 1-4, 8, 10, 13, 2.01, 3.01, etc
Pending combine & NFL draft I’m tentatively planning on Bijan + 2 QB.
Gibbs & JSN are my next 2 favorites, but landing spot for Addison/Johnston could change that.
Assuming a highly desirable FF landing spot for both Gibbs (let’s say Miami) & the WR1, I’ll likely have 3 options:
1. Take the Gibbs at 4, hope a Levis and/or Richardson goes 5-6-7 & take best of the 1st tier WR at 8, then take another shot at WR at 10 (Downs/Boutte), then BPA 2.01 (assuming I don’t deal any of these picks). Obvious risk that the draft goes 5-6-7 WR-WR-WR & I’m stuck at 8 with a pocket full of wishes.
2. Take the WR1 at 4 , confident that in a RB deep draft I’ll be able to land the RB3 or 4 at 1.08
3. Preliminary discussions give me the impression that I could potentially deal picks 1.08+2.01 for the 1.05 and get both RB2 & WR1, at the cost of 2.01, which could still be a really good player.
Which of these options would you do? Is 2.01+1.08 good value for 1.05? It feels like it, but it also feels like I need more players, not fewer right now.
Jayded
Footballguy
Interesting one. In the dynasty trade thread, I posted a big deal I made for Burrow in my superflex league. I needed a set it and forget it dynasty QB1 and paid for it.
League LSU fan took under 5 minutes to offer anything he could possibly do to get him (direct trade or 3rd team). Don’t want to be the person who’d flat out say no to any asset as untouchable if i can find fair value to get him his guy, but through my reasoning lens, who’s even on that list to open discussions?
To me, the dynasty QBs I should even consider in a swap are Mahomes, Allen, and maybe Herbert with a kicker. Am I misreading Burrow’s value should I willingly float that list as lone discussion starters and is he dynasty QB2/3 (between him and Allen) to the rest of you? Am I missing a QB I should also be considering beyond my 3 initial thoughts?
League LSU fan took under 5 minutes to offer anything he could possibly do to get him (direct trade or 3rd team). Don’t want to be the person who’d flat out say no to any asset as untouchable if i can find fair value to get him his guy, but through my reasoning lens, who’s even on that list to open discussions?
To me, the dynasty QBs I should even consider in a swap are Mahomes, Allen, and maybe Herbert with a kicker. Am I misreading Burrow’s value should I willingly float that list as lone discussion starters and is he dynasty QB2/3 (between him and Allen) to the rest of you? Am I missing a QB I should also be considering beyond my 3 initial thoughts?
Jayded
Footballguy
I’ll give you a different option - why not Mayer at 1.04? Pitts is turning into a question mark for me, situation, not talent. Mayer looks to me like the closest thing we’ve seen since Gronk to be Gronk.Philosophy + value Q that’s vexing me:
12 team SF, PPR, Full rebuild. I need QB, RB, WR to add to ETN, Higgins, ARSB, Pitts, Pacheco, GDavis, Mattison, KJO, juJohnson, Likely, ZWilson and a few other pieces.
I have picks 1-4, 8, 10, 13, 2.01, 3.01, etc
Pending combine & NFL draft I’m tentatively planning on Bijan + 2 QB.
Gibbs & JSN are my next 2 favorites, but landing spot for Addison/Johnston could change that.
Assuming a highly desirable FF landing spot for both Gibbs (let’s say Miami) & the WR1, I’ll likely have 3 options:
1. Take the Gibbs at 4, hope a Levis and/or Richardson goes 5-6-7 & take best of the 1st tier WR at 8, then take another shot at WR at 10 (Downs/Boutte), then BPA 2.01 (assuming I don’t deal any of these picks). Obvious risk that the draft goes 5-6-7 WR-WR-WR & I’m stuck at 8 with a pocket full of wishes.
2. Take the WR1 at 4 , confident that in a RB deep draft I’ll be able to land the RB3 or 4 at 1.08
3. Preliminary discussions give me the impression that I could potentially deal picks 1.08+2.01 for the 1.05 and get both RB2 & WR1, at the cost of 2.01, which could still be a really good player.
Which of these options would you do? Is 2.01+1.08 good value for 1.05? It feels like it, but it also feels like I need more players, not fewer right now.
I like Gibbs but RB landing spot is such a crapshoot beyond an obvious take like Bijan. I’d, personally, hate Miami for Gibbs for the same reason Najee fell off a cliff this year. Coaches and systems are freaking out over wear and tear.
This WR crop is all over the board too. Johnston could be amazing or a huge bust. I think Addison is too small to be more than an NFL WR2, like a compliment piece to Ceedee in Dallas. This WR crop feels like you need to gamble and guess right on a guy like Hyatt the same way teams hemmed and hawed over whether DK was going to pan out or not a few years ago.
If you really want to move up and get 5 as well, maybe I go Gibbs then. But I’d probably, personally, go Bijan + 2 QB + Mayer and then see who falls. Might get great value on another QB or a sliding WR/RB that falls into the perfect position.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
In SF, I would sit back and reap the fruits of that deal.
Unless you can get Mahomes or Allen, I don’t think it’s worth making a move.
The only exception would be something like TLaw + top ~7 WR + ? for Burrow, or some other sort of player combo with a potential future star QB + positional addition/upgrade.
Barring that, I don’t see any reason to move off of Burrow.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s an interesting idea, but it feels way early for Meyer in a non-TE-P, and I’m not at all down on Pitts.I’ll give you a different option - why not Mayer at 1.04? Pitts is turning into a question mark for me, situation, not talent. Mayer looks to me like the closest thing we’ve seen since Gronk to be Gronk.Philosophy + value Q that’s vexing me:
12 team SF, PPR, Full rebuild. I need QB, RB, WR to add to ETN, Higgins, ARSB, Pitts, Pacheco, GDavis, Mattison, KJO, juJohnson, Likely, ZWilson and a few other pieces.
I have picks 1-4, 8, 10, 13, 2.01, 3.01, etc
Pending combine & NFL draft I’m tentatively planning on Bijan + 2 QB.
Gibbs & JSN are my next 2 favorites, but landing spot for Addison/Johnston could change that.
Assuming a highly desirable FF landing spot for both Gibbs (let’s say Miami) & the WR1, I’ll likely have 3 options:
1. Take the Gibbs at 4, hope a Levis and/or Richardson goes 5-6-7 & take best of the 1st tier WR at 8, then take another shot at WR at 10 (Downs/Boutte), then BPA 2.01 (assuming I don’t deal any of these picks). Obvious risk that the draft goes 5-6-7 WR-WR-WR & I’m stuck at 8 with a pocket full of wishes.
2. Take the WR1 at 4 , confident that in a RB deep draft I’ll be able to land the RB3 or 4 at 1.08
3. Preliminary discussions give me the impression that I could potentially deal picks 1.08+2.01 for the 1.05 and get both RB2 & WR1, at the cost of 2.01, which could still be a really good player.
Which of these options would you do? Is 2.01+1.08 good value for 1.05? It feels like it, but it also feels like I need more players, not fewer right now.
I like Gibbs but RB landing spot is such a crapshoot beyond an obvious take like Bijan. I’d, personally, hate Miami for Gibbs for the same reason Najee fell off a cliff this year. Coaches and systems are freaking out over wear and tear.
This WR crop is all over the board too. Johnston could be amazing or a huge bust. I think Addison is too small to be more than an NFL WR2, like a compliment piece to Ceedee in Dallas. This WR crop feels like you need to gamble and guess right on a guy like Hyatt the same way teams hemmed and hawed over whether DK was going to pan out or not a few years ago.
If you really want to move up and get 5 as well, maybe I go Gibbs then. But I’d probably, personally, go Bijan + 2 QB + Mayer and then see who falls. Might get great value on another QB or a sliding WR/RB that falls into the perfect position.
Plus I have Conklin, JuJohnson, & Likely. I feel like TE is the last of my current needs, and I could probably land Meyer at 8 or 10.
In my hypothetical, I’m name-agnostic. I’m a big believer that JSN is the WR1 of this class, but as I (and you) suggest, landing spot will have a lot to do with it, but that’s true for most players.
Miami was just a hypothetical - Gibbs could be an Eagle or Chief in this scenario. Beauty in the eye of the beholder and all that. If Gibbs goes to a top offense, it becomes awfully challenging to pass him up at 4.
I suppose another possibility would be to deal out of 4 to 5 or 6 at a profit, let someone else take Gibbs at 1.04 and get a top tier WR + picks or players instead of paying to get to 1.05
Hmm…or if Gibbs value pops because of landing spot I could just offer 1.04 for an elite WR and see what offers I get.
That’s also an interesting thought.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Wow. I'm a bit more bullish on Sanders than most, and that seems like a decent offer. Actually, Sanders is worth the 2.02 according to KeepTradeCut. Amari Cooper, Dalvin Cook, Rachaad White come up as potential straight-up swaps.
I might take the deal, but remember this -- Who knows where Sanders winds up and how much of his success this season was due to Hurts and the OL of Philly? I take no real too-firm position on him right now until the dust settles in FA. And isn't that what you're doing if you hit accept? You're accepting all the uncertainty for the most liquid asset in fantasy football, which is a reasonably comparable pick to the player you're being offered. The pick is more liquid and fungible.
So basically, I'm talking you out of a deal I might take, though I'm not sure after rostering Sanders for half the year exactly how good he is.
Hope this at least helped a thought process.
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candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
Justin Fields price check.
12 team PPR league. I am fairly set at all positions except QB where have such studs as Tannehill, Darnold and M Ryan. I tried trading during the season for Fields before he broke out. Offered a 2nd asking him if he is willing to move JF as he already had Mahomes and Rodgers. Rejected without countering. The next week JF broke out, so I never bothered asking him again.
Fast forward to now, I am debating offering my 1.07 for his JF. Or should I just wait this out? Nothing happened on the WW this past season as per QB’s getting dropped.
Any thoughts, would help
12 team PPR league. I am fairly set at all positions except QB where have such studs as Tannehill, Darnold and M Ryan. I tried trading during the season for Fields before he broke out. Offered a 2nd asking him if he is willing to move JF as he already had Mahomes and Rodgers. Rejected without countering. The next week JF broke out, so I never bothered asking him again.
Fast forward to now, I am debating offering my 1.07 for his JF. Or should I just wait this out? Nothing happened on the WW this past season as per QB’s getting dropped.
Any thoughts, would help
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Yes. Just wait mate. Come your draft that 1.07 will be a real player, rather than just hypothetical value.
Other managers will be more switched on to the process by then and ready to trade.
You'll have way more scope to get your man, whether it's for the pick straight up or for another player that JF manager wants from another team.
Boston
Footballguy
Justin Fields price check.
12 team PPR league. I am fairly set at all positions except QB where have such studs as Tannehill, Darnold and M Ryan. I tried trading during the season for Fields before he broke out. Offered a 2nd asking him if he is willing to move JF as he already had Mahomes and Rodgers. Rejected without countering. The next week JF broke out, so I never bothered asking him again.
Fast forward to now, I am debating offering my 1.07 for his JF. Or should I just wait this out? Nothing happened on the WW this past season as per QB’s getting dropped.
Any thoughts, would help
If you can get him for 1.7 I would do it and not look back...with the QBs you have you have a ton of exposure going against teams with QBs like Mahomes, Burrow, Allen and Hurts and even in contests against the Goffs and Cousins of the world you can get yourself in a hole...Fields proved he is a legit stating FF QB who has a chance to blow-up any week...don't get cute...add him to your starting line-up and start worrying about other positions after that.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
This is honestly where I am at in my thought process.Justin Fields price check.
12 team PPR league. I am fairly set at all positions except QB where have such studs as Tannehill, Darnold and M Ryan. I tried trading during the season for Fields before he broke out. Offered a 2nd asking him if he is willing to move JF as he already had Mahomes and Rodgers. Rejected without countering. The next week JF broke out, so I never bothered asking him again.
Fast forward to now, I am debating offering my 1.07 for his JF. Or should I just wait this out? Nothing happened on the WW this past season as per QB’s getting dropped.
Any thoughts, would help
If you can get him for 1.7 I would do it and not look back...with the QBs you have you have a ton of exposure going against teams with QBs like Mahomes, Burrow, Allen and Hurts and even in contests against the Goffs and Cousins of the world you can get yourself in a hole...Fields proved he is a legit stating FF QB who has a chance to blow-up any week...don't get cute...add him to your starting line-up and start worrying about other positions after that.
So far, 1 yes and one wait.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
I understand this thought process, it is the reason I am asking for some feedback.
As a Bears fan, I’m trying to make sure that I am not “fan boying”/hyping up JF too much.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
I don't think so. 1.07 for a premium fantasy QB seems good to me. I don't think you're turning down an elite prospect at that pick, which would be the main reason not to do it.
Jayded
Footballguy
Many over value prospects. I feel like one reason I’ve found success in dynasty is the same reason a good real life GM does - it’s a mix of vets and predictability along with youth upside. Just like a baseball GM constantly futzing with his farm for the next thing, it doesn’t matter if only 5% of those guys pan out. So much value can be had from those under appreciated boring guys.It’s an interesting idea, but it feels way early for Meyer in a non-TE-P, and I’m not at all down on Pitts.I’ll give you a different option - why not Mayer at 1.04? Pitts is turning into a question mark for me, situation, not talent. Mayer looks to me like the closest thing we’ve seen since Gronk to be Gronk.Philosophy + value Q that’s vexing me:
12 team SF, PPR, Full rebuild. I need QB, RB, WR to add to ETN, Higgins, ARSB, Pitts, Pacheco, GDavis, Mattison, KJO, juJohnson, Likely, ZWilson and a few other pieces.
I have picks 1-4, 8, 10, 13, 2.01, 3.01, etc
Pending combine & NFL draft I’m tentatively planning on Bijan + 2 QB.
Gibbs & JSN are my next 2 favorites, but landing spot for Addison/Johnston could change that.
Assuming a highly desirable FF landing spot for both Gibbs (let’s say Miami) & the WR1, I’ll likely have 3 options:
1. Take the Gibbs at 4, hope a Levis and/or Richardson goes 5-6-7 & take best of the 1st tier WR at 8, then take another shot at WR at 10 (Downs/Boutte), then BPA 2.01 (assuming I don’t deal any of these picks). Obvious risk that the draft goes 5-6-7 WR-WR-WR & I’m stuck at 8 with a pocket full of wishes.
2. Take the WR1 at 4 , confident that in a RB deep draft I’ll be able to land the RB3 or 4 at 1.08
3. Preliminary discussions give me the impression that I could potentially deal picks 1.08+2.01 for the 1.05 and get both RB2 & WR1, at the cost of 2.01, which could still be a really good player.
Which of these options would you do? Is 2.01+1.08 good value for 1.05? It feels like it, but it also feels like I need more players, not fewer right now.
I like Gibbs but RB landing spot is such a crapshoot beyond an obvious take like Bijan. I’d, personally, hate Miami for Gibbs for the same reason Najee fell off a cliff this year. Coaches and systems are freaking out over wear and tear.
This WR crop is all over the board too. Johnston could be amazing or a huge bust. I think Addison is too small to be more than an NFL WR2, like a compliment piece to Ceedee in Dallas. This WR crop feels like you need to gamble and guess right on a guy like Hyatt the same way teams hemmed and hawed over whether DK was going to pan out or not a few years ago.
If you really want to move up and get 5 as well, maybe I go Gibbs then. But I’d probably, personally, go Bijan + 2 QB + Mayer and then see who falls. Might get great value on another QB or a sliding WR/RB that falls into the perfect position.
Plus I have Conklin, JuJohnson, & Likely. I feel like TE is the last of my current needs, and I could probably land Meyer at 8 or 10.
In my hypothetical, I’m name-agnostic. I’m a big believer that JSN is the WR1 of this class, but as I (and you) suggest, landing spot will have a lot to do with it, but that’s true for most players.
Miami was just a hypothetical - Gibbs could be an Eagle or Chief in this scenario. Beauty in the eye of the beholder and all that. If Gibbs goes to a top offense, it becomes awfully challenging to pass him up at 4.
I suppose another possibility would be to deal out of 4 to 5 or 6 at a profit, let someone else take Gibbs at 1.04 and get a top tier WR + picks or players instead of paying to get to 1.05
Hmm…or if Gibbs value pops because of landing spot I could just offer 1.04 for an elite WR and see what offers I get.
That’s also an interesting thought.
I pointed to Mayer for a few reasons I’ll expand upon, also with some of the guys you have too (Pitts/Likely). Those two were my “I hope…” TEs and I personally hate chasing that position with hope or starting some scrub and looking over at an opponent and seeing Andrews/Kelce. I’d prefer to feel nervous my WR2/3/RB3 hold up.
I’m calling my shot on Mayer now. He’s the next big thing. If I’m wrong, his floor will still be huge even if he doesn’t turn into what people still hope Pitts can be. The last guy I called my shot on like this was Aaron Donald. Not sure why they thought he was too short or arms weren’t too long at the combine, but he tore up my favorite team in college and I just knew he’d be amazing (and the Rams getting him at 13th overall now is pretty funny right?)
Pin this for years down the line, but I’m telling you guys, Mayer is a guy you’ll look back on and be like, “Damn I should have listened to him…” so draft him accordingly. If I’m wrong, mock accordingly lol, but I take that gamble vs the possibility of Gibbs/Addison and their ilk. If 5 is too high, I’m still saying find a way to get this guy.
Jayded
Footballguy
I don’t disagree. I’ve found myself in the “I am who I am” position here. Half my fun in fantasy is trading and everyone knows it.
In this specific scenario, the LSU guy has seriously legit nearly completed the unthinkable in a league our size (16 teams, starting 22 players a week) - his entire roster are LSU alumni with exception of a few like Malik Willis. Yes, he has OBJ, Chase, Jefferson, CEH, along with all of the defenders you’d expect like Peterson, Stingley, Derek White, etc. Pretty funny and cool accomplishment, but the commish sat on his crown jewel Burrow for years to complete his deck. Pressure has now moved to me.
I don’t want to be “that guy” as why not help him pull that off, but man I also do really like Joe the player and he could help me win for years. That’s why I was curious for outside thoughts. He won’t be able to get me what I need directly, so he’ll have to go get another owner involved in a 3-way deal but I don’t really want to get his hopes up and eat any value just to see him complete his deck.
Actually I could probably operate from a heavier hand if I really wanted to. If I had to guess, Herbert might be most pliable from the 3rd team (as that guy also has Allen) but I’m curious on outsider thoughts where if it were you who had Burrow and the Herbert owner approached you, where is that no-brainer line? Feels like a straight swap favors Burrow, but trying to feel this one out as if I open that door, big players and picks will start flying around quickly. I think if somehow I end up getting a Herbert + 2023 1st for Burrow, it’s an auto accept. Just curious to feel out where that auto line is for folks outside looking in and/or if there isn’t that kind of QB to QB swap without eating too much value.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
A straight swap would be a loss for you IMO.
Why trade an asset someone else wants if not at a profit?
Plus IMO Burrow > Herbert
foxco
Footballguy
I would move Burrow for Herbert/ '23 1st in SF. I wouldn't trade Burrow straight up for Herbert but I think they're not soooo far away value-wise, so Herbert + another piece would help me would do it.
joey
Footballguy
Thanks for the great reply. Exactly what was going through my head when I saw the offer. The other factor I didn’t mention is that I’m in a rebuild with the 1.1, 1.6, 1.8, 2.6, 2.7 picks, and already have WalkerIII, Javonte, Allgeier and Herbert, and will have Bijan, so didn’t know where Sanders would fit anyway. If he offered a WR instead, I might have made the move since I have more need there.
then again, the odds of my 2.6 even turning into a Sanders-like player aren’t very high, so that’s the only thing I might kick myself over, as much as i didn’t “want“ Sander on my roster.
I would think that an offer of 1.07 for Fields would similarly be rejected with a counter. Fields is a late 1st/early 2nd startup pick as a lot of analysts have Fields as a top 9 QB. Getting Fields for the 1.07 would be a steal for you and that's why you send the offer. You never know what the other manager thinks.Justin Fields price check.
12 team PPR league. I am fairly set at all positions except QB where have such studs as Tannehill, Darnold and M Ryan. I tried trading during the season for Fields before he broke out. Offered a 2nd asking him if he is willing to move JF as he already had Mahomes and Rodgers. Rejected without countering. The next week JF broke out, so I never bothered asking him again.
Fast forward to now, I am debating offering my 1.07 for his JF. Or should I just wait this out? Nothing happened on the WW this past season as per QB’s getting dropped.
Any thoughts, would help
joey
Footballguy
i kept re-reading the original post to see if it’s a SuperFlex league…and it’s not. Confused by the bolded.I would think that an offer of 1.07 for Fields would similarly be rejected with a counter. Fields is a late 1st/early 2nd startup pick as a lot of analysts have Fields as a top 9 QB. Getting Fields for the 1.07 would be a steal for you and that's why you send the offer. You never know what the other manager thinks.Justin Fields price check.
12 team PPR league. I am fairly set at all positions except QB where have such studs as Tannehill, Darnold and M Ryan. I tried trading during the season for Fields before he broke out. Offered a 2nd asking him if he is willing to move JF as he already had Mahomes and Rodgers. Rejected without countering. The next week JF broke out, so I never bothered asking him again.
Fast forward to now, I am debating offering my 1.07 for his JF. Or should I just wait this out? Nothing happened on the WW this past season as per QB’s getting dropped.
Any thoughts, would help
rockaction
Footballguy
Cool. So if you're counting Bijan already, you really have the 1.6, 1.8, 2.6, and 2.7.
I don't know what I'd do. I'd need to see your roster. I know that before I acquired Sanders I would have smash accepted that (the 2.6 for him), but I'm not sure where he fits in the scheme of the NFL as a whole given the strength of the RB draft class and the RB free agent class. And I'm not sure what you're looking to do with your team, or if it's SF or what.
But I'm glad you found the thought process synched up with yours. That's cool to know.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
It’s not SF and it was rejected. He says he will send a counter. We will see what he wants. I’m not too sure how much more I want to spend for JF as I will very likely get one of the top QB with my rookie pick.i kept re-reading the original post to see if it’s a SuperFlex league…and it’s not. Confused by the bolded.I would think that an offer of 1.07 for Fields would similarly be rejected with a counter. Fields is a late 1st/early 2nd startup pick as a lot of analysts have Fields as a top 9 QB. Getting Fields for the 1.07 would be a steal for you and that's why you send the offer. You never know what the other manager thinks.Justin Fields price check.
12 team PPR league. I am fairly set at all positions except QB where have such studs as Tannehill, Darnold and M Ryan. I tried trading during the season for Fields before he broke out. Offered a 2nd asking him if he is willing to move JF as he already had Mahomes and Rodgers. Rejected without countering. The next week JF broke out, so I never bothered asking him again.
Fast forward to now, I am debating offering my 1.07 for his JF. Or should I just wait this out? Nothing happened on the WW this past season as per QB’s getting dropped.
Any thoughts, would help
He also has Rodgers to which I offered a 3rd rounder, which was also rejected.
Philosophy + value Q that’s vexing me:
12 team SF, PPR, Full rebuild. I need QB, RB, WR to add to ETN, Higgins, ARSB, Pitts, Pacheco, GDavis, Mattison, KJO, juJohnson, Likely, ZWilson and a few other pieces.
I have picks 1-4, 8, 10, 13, 2.01, 3.01, etc
Pending combine & NFL draft I’m tentatively planning on Bijan + 2 QB.
Gibbs & JSN are my next 2 favorites, but landing spot for Addison/Johnston could change that.
Assuming a highly desirable FF landing spot for both Gibbs (let’s say Miami) & the WR1, I’ll likely have 3 options:
1. Take the Gibbs at 4, hope a Levis and/or Richardson goes 5-6-7 & take best of the 1st tier WR at 8, then take another shot at WR at 10 (Downs/Boutte), then BPA 2.01 (assuming I don’t deal any of these picks). Obvious risk that the draft goes 5-6-7 WR-WR-WR & I’m stuck at 8 with a pocket full of wishes.
2. Take the WR1 at 4 , confident that in a RB deep draft I’ll be able to land the RB3 or 4 at 1.08
3. Preliminary discussions give me the impression that I could potentially deal picks 1.08+2.01 for the 1.05 and get both RB2 & WR1, at the cost of 2.01, which could still be a really good player.
Which of these options would you do? Is 2.01+1.08 good value for 1.05? It feels like it, but it also feels like I need more players, not fewer right now.
Personally if I'm rebuilding, I would only consolidate assets for a proven player that fits within the timeline of my roster construction. If you are willing to deal 1.08 + 2.01, I would see what young WR you could get for the package. At least you can compare who you would rather have for those picks - JSN or G Wilson, Olave, Metcalf, D Smith, London - however you have your rankings.
Oops. I read PPR as SF. 1.07 for a QB in 1QB is too pricey for my likingIt’s not SF and it was rejected. He says he will send a counter. We will see what he wants. I’m not too sure how much more I want to spend for JF as I will very likely get one of the top QB with my rookie pick.i kept re-reading the original post to see if it’s a SuperFlex league…and it’s not. Confused by the bolded.I would think that an offer of 1.07 for Fields would similarly be rejected with a counter. Fields is a late 1st/early 2nd startup pick as a lot of analysts have Fields as a top 9 QB. Getting Fields for the 1.07 would be a steal for you and that's why you send the offer. You never know what the other manager thinks.Justin Fields price check.
12 team PPR league. I am fairly set at all positions except QB where have such studs as Tannehill, Darnold and M Ryan. I tried trading during the season for Fields before he broke out. Offered a 2nd asking him if he is willing to move JF as he already had Mahomes and Rodgers. Rejected without countering. The next week JF broke out, so I never bothered asking him again.
Fast forward to now, I am debating offering my 1.07 for his JF. Or should I just wait this out? Nothing happened on the WW this past season as per QB’s getting dropped.
Any thoughts, would help
He also has Rodgers to which I offered a 3rd rounder, which was also rejected.
Birdie048
Footballguy
This is the avenue I would pursue ... I am trying the same package in my 1QB league
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Thanks - that, to me, made the most sense - keeps the roster young & cheap, and only costs me that 2.01 to get the top receiver in the class.
If it’s a JSN to DAL or NYG, that would seem to be worth it.
Just have to hope team 1.05 is still willing to move to 8 as we get closer to the draft. I’m tempted to make the offer now before landing spots are established.
Team 1.05 is also rebuilding, so getting that extra pick is appealing to them. My calcs have it as an overpay, but I feel like it’s about right.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Where do you see Mayer falling in Rookie Draft? Landing Spot will strongly influence his value IMO. If ARodgers stays in GB, he is valuable there. But if not, it could be very dependent on QB situation.Many over value prospects. I feel like one reason I’ve found success in dynasty is the same reason a good real life GM does - it’s a mix of vets and predictability along with youth upside. Just like a baseball GM constantly futzing with his farm for the next thing, it doesn’t matter if only 5% of those guys pan out. So much value can be had from those under appreciated boring guys.It’s an interesting idea, but it feels way early for Meyer in a non-TE-P, and I’m not at all down on Pitts.I’ll give you a different option - why not Mayer at 1.04? Pitts is turning into a question mark for me, situation, not talent. Mayer looks to me like the closest thing we’ve seen since Gronk to be Gronk.Philosophy + value Q that’s vexing me:
12 team SF, PPR, Full rebuild. I need QB, RB, WR to add to ETN, Higgins, ARSB, Pitts, Pacheco, GDavis, Mattison, KJO, juJohnson, Likely, ZWilson and a few other pieces.
I have picks 1-4, 8, 10, 13, 2.01, 3.01, etc
Pending combine & NFL draft I’m tentatively planning on Bijan + 2 QB.
Gibbs & JSN are my next 2 favorites, but landing spot for Addison/Johnston could change that.
Assuming a highly desirable FF landing spot for both Gibbs (let’s say Miami) & the WR1, I’ll likely have 3 options:
1. Take the Gibbs at 4, hope a Levis and/or Richardson goes 5-6-7 & take best of the 1st tier WR at 8, then take another shot at WR at 10 (Downs/Boutte), then BPA 2.01 (assuming I don’t deal any of these picks). Obvious risk that the draft goes 5-6-7 WR-WR-WR & I’m stuck at 8 with a pocket full of wishes.
2. Take the WR1 at 4 , confident that in a RB deep draft I’ll be able to land the RB3 or 4 at 1.08
3. Preliminary discussions give me the impression that I could potentially deal picks 1.08+2.01 for the 1.05 and get both RB2 & WR1, at the cost of 2.01, which could still be a really good player.
Which of these options would you do? Is 2.01+1.08 good value for 1.05? It feels like it, but it also feels like I need more players, not fewer right now.
I like Gibbs but RB landing spot is such a crapshoot beyond an obvious take like Bijan. I’d, personally, hate Miami for Gibbs for the same reason Najee fell off a cliff this year. Coaches and systems are freaking out over wear and tear.
This WR crop is all over the board too. Johnston could be amazing or a huge bust. I think Addison is too small to be more than an NFL WR2, like a compliment piece to Ceedee in Dallas. This WR crop feels like you need to gamble and guess right on a guy like Hyatt the same way teams hemmed and hawed over whether DK was going to pan out or not a few years ago.
If you really want to move up and get 5 as well, maybe I go Gibbs then. But I’d probably, personally, go Bijan + 2 QB + Mayer and then see who falls. Might get great value on another QB or a sliding WR/RB that falls into the perfect position.
Plus I have Conklin, JuJohnson, & Likely. I feel like TE is the last of my current needs, and I could probably land Meyer at 8 or 10.
In my hypothetical, I’m name-agnostic. I’m a big believer that JSN is the WR1 of this class, but as I (and you) suggest, landing spot will have a lot to do with it, but that’s true for most players.
Miami was just a hypothetical - Gibbs could be an Eagle or Chief in this scenario. Beauty in the eye of the beholder and all that. If Gibbs goes to a top offense, it becomes awfully challenging to pass him up at 4.
I suppose another possibility would be to deal out of 4 to 5 or 6 at a profit, let someone else take Gibbs at 1.04 and get a top tier WR + picks or players instead of paying to get to 1.05
Hmm…or if Gibbs value pops because of landing spot I could just offer 1.04 for an elite WR and see what offers I get.
That’s also an interesting thought.
I pointed to Mayer for a few reasons I’ll expand upon, also with some of the guys you have too (Pitts/Likely). Those two were my “I hope…” TEs and I personally hate chasing that position with hope or starting some scrub and looking over at an opponent and seeing Andrews/Kelce. I’d prefer to feel nervous my WR2/3/RB3 hold up.
I’m calling my shot on Mayer now. He’s the next big thing. If I’m wrong, his floor will still be huge even if he doesn’t turn into what people still hope Pitts can be. The last guy I called my shot on like this was Aaron Donald. Not sure why they thought he was too short or arms weren’t too long at the combine, but he tore up my favorite team in college and I just knew he’d be amazing (and the Rams getting him at 13th overall now is pretty funny right?)
Pin this for years down the line, but I’m telling you guys, Mayer is a guy you’ll look back on and be like, “Damn I should have listened to him…” so draft him accordingly. If I’m wrong, mock accordingly lol, but I take that gamble vs the possibility of Gibbs/Addison and their ilk. If 5 is too high, I’m still saying find a way to get this guy.
I am deciding if I need to use my 1.09 or should I wait for 2.01? 12 Team 1QB and I have 3 in a row (1.07 - 1.09 picks)... Was really looking at RB2, WR1 & WR2 at that junction.
I'd have jumped on that even if I had no RB need or available roster spot and figured it out later. He's good, fairly young and honestly if he goes back to Philly or not I don't really care. Some places better, some worse.
joey
Footballguy
fair enough. I have a feeling I should’ve just acted quicker on my phone and not waited. He ended up selling Sanders to another team for the 2.8. It’s an FFPC league and his roster is beyond stacked, so he’s always selling a couple of assets in the offseason to make cut downs. I just sent my 2.6 that he was after for his “worst” good WR (Kirk)
Jayded
Footballguy
Somewhat disagree. Mayer is not Pitts, Likely, or Kelce. I think of those guys as the new breed of what Hernandez was to Gronk when they were paired and successful in NE.Where do you see Mayer falling in Rookie Draft? Landing Spot will strongly influence his value IMO. If ARodgers stays in GB, he is valuable there. But if not, it could be very dependent on QB situation.Many over value prospects. I feel like one reason I’ve found success in dynasty is the same reason a good real life GM does - it’s a mix of vets and predictability along with youth upside. Just like a baseball GM constantly futzing with his farm for the next thing, it doesn’t matter if only 5% of those guys pan out. So much value can be had from those under appreciated boring guys.It’s an interesting idea, but it feels way early for Meyer in a non-TE-P, and I’m not at all down on Pitts.I’ll give you a different option - why not Mayer at 1.04? Pitts is turning into a question mark for me, situation, not talent. Mayer looks to me like the closest thing we’ve seen since Gronk to be Gronk.Philosophy + value Q that’s vexing me:
12 team SF, PPR, Full rebuild. I need QB, RB, WR to add to ETN, Higgins, ARSB, Pitts, Pacheco, GDavis, Mattison, KJO, juJohnson, Likely, ZWilson and a few other pieces.
I have picks 1-4, 8, 10, 13, 2.01, 3.01, etc
Pending combine & NFL draft I’m tentatively planning on Bijan + 2 QB.
Gibbs & JSN are my next 2 favorites, but landing spot for Addison/Johnston could change that.
Assuming a highly desirable FF landing spot for both Gibbs (let’s say Miami) & the WR1, I’ll likely have 3 options:
1. Take the Gibbs at 4, hope a Levis and/or Richardson goes 5-6-7 & take best of the 1st tier WR at 8, then take another shot at WR at 10 (Downs/Boutte), then BPA 2.01 (assuming I don’t deal any of these picks). Obvious risk that the draft goes 5-6-7 WR-WR-WR & I’m stuck at 8 with a pocket full of wishes.
2. Take the WR1 at 4 , confident that in a RB deep draft I’ll be able to land the RB3 or 4 at 1.08
3. Preliminary discussions give me the impression that I could potentially deal picks 1.08+2.01 for the 1.05 and get both RB2 & WR1, at the cost of 2.01, which could still be a really good player.
Which of these options would you do? Is 2.01+1.08 good value for 1.05? It feels like it, but it also feels like I need more players, not fewer right now.
I like Gibbs but RB landing spot is such a crapshoot beyond an obvious take like Bijan. I’d, personally, hate Miami for Gibbs for the same reason Najee fell off a cliff this year. Coaches and systems are freaking out over wear and tear.
This WR crop is all over the board too. Johnston could be amazing or a huge bust. I think Addison is too small to be more than an NFL WR2, like a compliment piece to Ceedee in Dallas. This WR crop feels like you need to gamble and guess right on a guy like Hyatt the same way teams hemmed and hawed over whether DK was going to pan out or not a few years ago.
If you really want to move up and get 5 as well, maybe I go Gibbs then. But I’d probably, personally, go Bijan + 2 QB + Mayer and then see who falls. Might get great value on another QB or a sliding WR/RB that falls into the perfect position.
Plus I have Conklin, JuJohnson, & Likely. I feel like TE is the last of my current needs, and I could probably land Meyer at 8 or 10.
In my hypothetical, I’m name-agnostic. I’m a big believer that JSN is the WR1 of this class, but as I (and you) suggest, landing spot will have a lot to do with it, but that’s true for most players.
Miami was just a hypothetical - Gibbs could be an Eagle or Chief in this scenario. Beauty in the eye of the beholder and all that. If Gibbs goes to a top offense, it becomes awfully challenging to pass him up at 4.
I suppose another possibility would be to deal out of 4 to 5 or 6 at a profit, let someone else take Gibbs at 1.04 and get a top tier WR + picks or players instead of paying to get to 1.05
Hmm…or if Gibbs value pops because of landing spot I could just offer 1.04 for an elite WR and see what offers I get.
That’s also an interesting thought.
I pointed to Mayer for a few reasons I’ll expand upon, also with some of the guys you have too (Pitts/Likely). Those two were my “I hope…” TEs and I personally hate chasing that position with hope or starting some scrub and looking over at an opponent and seeing Andrews/Kelce. I’d prefer to feel nervous my WR2/3/RB3 hold up.
I’m calling my shot on Mayer now. He’s the next big thing. If I’m wrong, his floor will still be huge even if he doesn’t turn into what people still hope Pitts can be. The last guy I called my shot on like this was Aaron Donald. Not sure why they thought he was too short or arms weren’t too long at the combine, but he tore up my favorite team in college and I just knew he’d be amazing (and the Rams getting him at 13th overall now is pretty funny right?)
Pin this for years down the line, but I’m telling you guys, Mayer is a guy you’ll look back on and be like, “Damn I should have listened to him…” so draft him accordingly. If I’m wrong, mock accordingly lol, but I take that gamble vs the possibility of Gibbs/Addison and their ilk. If 5 is too high, I’m still saying find a way to get this guy.
I am deciding if I need to use my 1.09 or should I wait for 2.01? 12 Team 1QB and I have 3 in a row (1.07 - 1.09 picks)... Was really looking at RB2, WR1 & WR2 at that junction.
Mayer is a willing and successful in-line TE that’ll also tremendously help a run game. But he’s big and fast like Gronk, not a tweener WR/TE you often see nowadays.
I like GB for him, but I also like my Texans for him a lot. An offense like SF runs where it’s about being physical and having him play a Kittle-like roll is probably best at maximizing his value.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I remember the discussion last off-season that these classes never live up to the “next draft” hype. Some people did not want to believe it, but it’s a “rinse and repeat” every offseason it seem.
12 team one start QB leagues sure are not always equal. 1.7 would be an overpay in my leagues where in-season you would doing well if you could pry a late one for Hurts from QB needy teams in contention(I could not in a league). So coming at this from angle of my leagues it's an overpay but fact your offer for a second was already rejected before he broke out is a pretty good sign your one start QB leagues value them more then mine. I'd personally probably look at another QB option if I'm paying the 1.7 or try to pay less for a depressed market QB I think will rebound, like Watson.Justin Fields price check.
12 team PPR league. I am fairly set at all positions except QB where have such studs as Tannehill, Darnold and M Ryan. I tried trading during the season for Fields before he broke out. Offered a 2nd asking him if he is willing to move JF as he already had Mahomes and Rodgers. Rejected without countering. The next week JF broke out, so I never bothered asking him again.
Fast forward to now, I am debating offering my 1.07 for his JF. Or should I just wait this out? Nothing happened on the WW this past season as per QB’s getting dropped.
Any thoughts, would help
I don't know but I currently have him as my TE2.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
My concern with Meyer is twofold:Where do you see Mayer falling in Rookie Draft? Landing Spot will strongly influence his value IMO. If ARodgers stays in GB, he is valuable there. But if not, it could be very dependent on QB situation.Many over value prospects. I feel like one reason I’ve found success in dynasty is the same reason a good real life GM does - it’s a mix of vets and predictability along with youth upside. Just like a baseball GM constantly futzing with his farm for the next thing, it doesn’t matter if only 5% of those guys pan out. So much value can be had from those under appreciated boring guys.It’s an interesting idea, but it feels way early for Meyer in a non-TE-P, and I’m not at all down on Pitts.I’ll give you a different option - why not Mayer at 1.04? Pitts is turning into a question mark for me, situation, not talent. Mayer looks to me like the closest thing we’ve seen since Gronk to be Gronk.Philosophy + value Q that’s vexing me:
12 team SF, PPR, Full rebuild. I need QB, RB, WR to add to ETN, Higgins, ARSB, Pitts, Pacheco, GDavis, Mattison, KJO, juJohnson, Likely, ZWilson and a few other pieces.
I have picks 1-4, 8, 10, 13, 2.01, 3.01, etc
Pending combine & NFL draft I’m tentatively planning on Bijan + 2 QB.
Gibbs & JSN are my next 2 favorites, but landing spot for Addison/Johnston could change that.
Assuming a highly desirable FF landing spot for both Gibbs (let’s say Miami) & the WR1, I’ll likely have 3 options:
1. Take the Gibbs at 4, hope a Levis and/or Richardson goes 5-6-7 & take best of the 1st tier WR at 8, then take another shot at WR at 10 (Downs/Boutte), then BPA 2.01 (assuming I don’t deal any of these picks). Obvious risk that the draft goes 5-6-7 WR-WR-WR & I’m stuck at 8 with a pocket full of wishes.
2. Take the WR1 at 4 , confident that in a RB deep draft I’ll be able to land the RB3 or 4 at 1.08
3. Preliminary discussions give me the impression that I could potentially deal picks 1.08+2.01 for the 1.05 and get both RB2 & WR1, at the cost of 2.01, which could still be a really good player.
Which of these options would you do? Is 2.01+1.08 good value for 1.05? It feels like it, but it also feels like I need more players, not fewer right now.
I like Gibbs but RB landing spot is such a crapshoot beyond an obvious take like Bijan. I’d, personally, hate Miami for Gibbs for the same reason Najee fell off a cliff this year. Coaches and systems are freaking out over wear and tear.
This WR crop is all over the board too. Johnston could be amazing or a huge bust. I think Addison is too small to be more than an NFL WR2, like a compliment piece to Ceedee in Dallas. This WR crop feels like you need to gamble and guess right on a guy like Hyatt the same way teams hemmed and hawed over whether DK was going to pan out or not a few years ago.
If you really want to move up and get 5 as well, maybe I go Gibbs then. But I’d probably, personally, go Bijan + 2 QB + Mayer and then see who falls. Might get great value on another QB or a sliding WR/RB that falls into the perfect position.
Plus I have Conklin, JuJohnson, & Likely. I feel like TE is the last of my current needs, and I could probably land Meyer at 8 or 10.
In my hypothetical, I’m name-agnostic. I’m a big believer that JSN is the WR1 of this class, but as I (and you) suggest, landing spot will have a lot to do with it, but that’s true for most players.
Miami was just a hypothetical - Gibbs could be an Eagle or Chief in this scenario. Beauty in the eye of the beholder and all that. If Gibbs goes to a top offense, it becomes awfully challenging to pass him up at 4.
I suppose another possibility would be to deal out of 4 to 5 or 6 at a profit, let someone else take Gibbs at 1.04 and get a top tier WR + picks or players instead of paying to get to 1.05
Hmm…or if Gibbs value pops because of landing spot I could just offer 1.04 for an elite WR and see what offers I get.
That’s also an interesting thought.
I pointed to Mayer for a few reasons I’ll expand upon, also with some of the guys you have too (Pitts/Likely). Those two were my “I hope…” TEs and I personally hate chasing that position with hope or starting some scrub and looking over at an opponent and seeing Andrews/Kelce. I’d prefer to feel nervous my WR2/3/RB3 hold up.
I’m calling my shot on Mayer now. He’s the next big thing. If I’m wrong, his floor will still be huge even if he doesn’t turn into what people still hope Pitts can be. The last guy I called my shot on like this was Aaron Donald. Not sure why they thought he was too short or arms weren’t too long at the combine, but he tore up my favorite team in college and I just knew he’d be amazing (and the Rams getting him at 13th overall now is pretty funny right?)
Pin this for years down the line, but I’m telling you guys, Mayer is a guy you’ll look back on and be like, “Damn I should have listened to him…” so draft him accordingly. If I’m wrong, mock accordingly lol, but I take that gamble vs the possibility of Gibbs/Addison and their ilk. If 5 is too high, I’m still saying find a way to get this guy.
I am deciding if I need to use my 1.09 or should I wait for 2.01? 12 Team 1QB and I have 3 in a row (1.07 - 1.09 picks)... Was really looking at RB2, WR1 & WR2 at that junction.
1. TEs develop notoriously slow in the NFL. Pitts productive 1st season was an anomaly.
2. 1.04 would be ridiculously early to take him in a non TE-P format. He’s likely a back of the 1st round selection - and that’s if he lands in an ideal situation, which he may not. He could well be a 2nd round pick in non TE-P.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Not to be picky, but I’m seeing a lot of people constantly misspelling his name.My concern with Meyer is twofold:Where do you see Mayer falling in Rookie Draft? Landing Spot will strongly influence his value IMO. If ARodgers stays in GB, he is valuable there. But if not, it could be very dependent on QB situation.Many over value prospects. I feel like one reason I’ve found success in dynasty is the same reason a good real life GM does - it’s a mix of vets and predictability along with youth upside. Just like a baseball GM constantly futzing with his farm for the next thing, it doesn’t matter if only 5% of those guys pan out. So much value can be had from those under appreciated boring guys.It’s an interesting idea, but it feels way early for Meyer in a non-TE-P, and I’m not at all down on Pitts.I’ll give you a different option - why not Mayer at 1.04? Pitts is turning into a question mark for me, situation, not talent. Mayer looks to me like the closest thing we’ve seen since Gronk to be Gronk.Philosophy + value Q that’s vexing me:
12 team SF, PPR, Full rebuild. I need QB, RB, WR to add to ETN, Higgins, ARSB, Pitts, Pacheco, GDavis, Mattison, KJO, juJohnson, Likely, ZWilson and a few other pieces.
I have picks 1-4, 8, 10, 13, 2.01, 3.01, etc
Pending combine & NFL draft I’m tentatively planning on Bijan + 2 QB.
Gibbs & JSN are my next 2 favorites, but landing spot for Addison/Johnston could change that.
Assuming a highly desirable FF landing spot for both Gibbs (let’s say Miami) & the WR1, I’ll likely have 3 options:
1. Take the Gibbs at 4, hope a Levis and/or Richardson goes 5-6-7 & take best of the 1st tier WR at 8, then take another shot at WR at 10 (Downs/Boutte), then BPA 2.01 (assuming I don’t deal any of these picks). Obvious risk that the draft goes 5-6-7 WR-WR-WR & I’m stuck at 8 with a pocket full of wishes.
2. Take the WR1 at 4 , confident that in a RB deep draft I’ll be able to land the RB3 or 4 at 1.08
3. Preliminary discussions give me the impression that I could potentially deal picks 1.08+2.01 for the 1.05 and get both RB2 & WR1, at the cost of 2.01, which could still be a really good player.
Which of these options would you do? Is 2.01+1.08 good value for 1.05? It feels like it, but it also feels like I need more players, not fewer right now.
I like Gibbs but RB landing spot is such a crapshoot beyond an obvious take like Bijan. I’d, personally, hate Miami for Gibbs for the same reason Najee fell off a cliff this year. Coaches and systems are freaking out over wear and tear.
This WR crop is all over the board too. Johnston could be amazing or a huge bust. I think Addison is too small to be more than an NFL WR2, like a compliment piece to Ceedee in Dallas. This WR crop feels like you need to gamble and guess right on a guy like Hyatt the same way teams hemmed and hawed over whether DK was going to pan out or not a few years ago.
If you really want to move up and get 5 as well, maybe I go Gibbs then. But I’d probably, personally, go Bijan + 2 QB + Mayer and then see who falls. Might get great value on another QB or a sliding WR/RB that falls into the perfect position.
Plus I have Conklin, JuJohnson, & Likely. I feel like TE is the last of my current needs, and I could probably land Meyer at 8 or 10.
In my hypothetical, I’m name-agnostic. I’m a big believer that JSN is the WR1 of this class, but as I (and you) suggest, landing spot will have a lot to do with it, but that’s true for most players.
Miami was just a hypothetical - Gibbs could be an Eagle or Chief in this scenario. Beauty in the eye of the beholder and all that. If Gibbs goes to a top offense, it becomes awfully challenging to pass him up at 4.
I suppose another possibility would be to deal out of 4 to 5 or 6 at a profit, let someone else take Gibbs at 1.04 and get a top tier WR + picks or players instead of paying to get to 1.05
Hmm…or if Gibbs value pops because of landing spot I could just offer 1.04 for an elite WR and see what offers I get.
That’s also an interesting thought.
I pointed to Mayer for a few reasons I’ll expand upon, also with some of the guys you have too (Pitts/Likely). Those two were my “I hope…” TEs and I personally hate chasing that position with hope or starting some scrub and looking over at an opponent and seeing Andrews/Kelce. I’d prefer to feel nervous my WR2/3/RB3 hold up.
I’m calling my shot on Mayer now. He’s the next big thing. If I’m wrong, his floor will still be huge even if he doesn’t turn into what people still hope Pitts can be. The last guy I called my shot on like this was Aaron Donald. Not sure why they thought he was too short or arms weren’t too long at the combine, but he tore up my favorite team in college and I just knew he’d be amazing (and the Rams getting him at 13th overall now is pretty funny right?)
Pin this for years down the line, but I’m telling you guys, Mayer is a guy you’ll look back on and be like, “Damn I should have listened to him…” so draft him accordingly. If I’m wrong, mock accordingly lol, but I take that gamble vs the possibility of Gibbs/Addison and their ilk. If 5 is too high, I’m still saying find a way to get this guy.
I am deciding if I need to use my 1.09 or should I wait for 2.01? 12 Team 1QB and I have 3 in a row (1.07 - 1.09 picks)... Was really looking at RB2, WR1 & WR2 at that junction.
1. TEs develop notoriously slow in the NFL. Pitts productive 1st season was an anomaly.
2. 1.04 would be ridiculously early to take him in a non TE-P format. He’s likely a back of the 1st round selection - and that’s if he lands in an ideal situation, which he may not. He could well be a 2nd round pick in non TE-P.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Dang it - my autocorrect constantly changes Mayer to Meyer.
Between him & Levi’s it’s gonna be a long off-season.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Yeah the Levi’s has bothered me tooDang it - my autocorrect constantly changes Mayer to Meyer.
Between him & Levi’s it’s gonna be a long off-season.
rockaction
Footballguy
It won't be as ballyhooed as we heard last year, but it's still going to be deep at RB. So I won't slag the class or anything. It's just that expectations were super super high. We still might get a bit of a historic class in terms of pure depth at RB through two rounds, but I don't necessarily know all the details or where the players will land yet.
If I'm taking a TE that high I have to think he has to be lined up as WR at least 50% or more of the time. That was the case with Pitts where the learning curve typical for a TE did not apply to him as much as the typical learning curve for a TE since he lined up out wide. The learning curve is more along the lines of what is typical for a WR.
I mainly play TE premium leagues and the success rate of TE drafted in the first round is pretty bleak. As disappointing as Pitts was this last year and as up and down as Hockenson has been those are the two biggest first round "success" picks in round one I can think off in last 10 years. Granted the sample size is small but the others I think of are Fant, Henry, Engram, Njoku, and Engram. Most of them had some success at times, but took awhile and was not consistent and none have really risen to difference maker status. In both the real NFL and rookie fantasy drafts I don't think any position has offered more gold to be found later in the draft then TE. Hard position to evaluate.
This year I'm probably going to have to back to the TE well in late round one or round two of my TE premium leagues because of the strength of the TE position relative to the others. For example I know Dane Brugler's mock had 6 TE's in first 45 picks, I believe Daniel Jeremiah said he'll have 7 TE's in his top 50. So I'm probably going to have to get into that mix a little but years ago I decided it's best to let someone else draft TE's in that round one/early round two area and be the guy buying them later at a discount.But again this year I'm probably going to have to break on that philosophy.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Sure - I’m not saying it’s a bad class (and I have plenty of picks in it) but it’s not all that much better, if any, than last year. Even at the top, how much better will Robinson be than Hall or Walker? I’d take him over either, but both dominated at the NFL level last year.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Sure, but I’m betting that’s not at 1.04 with likely Gibbs + a top tier of 3-4 WR on the board.
IMO that’s just giving away value to the teams behind you.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Another key difference is the potential of 3-4 1st round QBs.
Last year there was…Pickett. And he wasn’t exactly coveted by the teams drafting in the top half, even with many needing a QB.
rockaction
Footballguy
This is how I approach it. Who's your TE1, though? Dalton Kincaid? He seems to be the second one in most mocks, and if it's not Mayer, then I'm guessing...
rockaction
Footballguy
I think it's important for me to say that I always judge things by 1QB standards and don't put the weight on those guys like SF would. That tends to account for the amount of noise we see in our evaluations.
Jayded
Footballguy
I will fully admit for those unaware that I’m an ND fan as well if it helps lens Mayer. The autocorrect fun will only get worse as the sound guy at ND just spent years playing the Halloween theme (Michaels Myers) at him with each catch.
But the eyes don’t lie. I like Dalton Kincaid this year too, but they are different players. Mayer’s got another 25 lbs and he plays more tradition in-line TE. Preferring to play TE heavy in my fantasy approach, I also like to pay attention multi-year here to stock the room on my team. I drafted Bowers while I had Pitts and Freiermuth on the same team. Flipped Bowers for Mayer a few weeks ago because of noted styles alignments and gut feel too. Will still try to get Kincaid too just to annoy my league mates at my 1950s 23 personnel backfield approach.
The position has such scarcity as well and soon enough Kelce the cheat code will be gone. I want as many shots at having the next Kelce or Kelces so I either dominate or have trade bait out the wazoo.
But the eyes don’t lie. I like Dalton Kincaid this year too, but they are different players. Mayer’s got another 25 lbs and he plays more tradition in-line TE. Preferring to play TE heavy in my fantasy approach, I also like to pay attention multi-year here to stock the room on my team. I drafted Bowers while I had Pitts and Freiermuth on the same team. Flipped Bowers for Mayer a few weeks ago because of noted styles alignments and gut feel too. Will still try to get Kincaid too just to annoy my league mates at my 1950s 23 personnel backfield approach.
The position has such scarcity as well and soon enough Kelce the cheat code will be gone. I want as many shots at having the next Kelce or Kelces so I either dominate or have trade bait out the wazoo.
