Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (15 Viewers)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think it's important for me to say that I always judge things by 1QB standards and don't put the weight on those guys like SF would. That tends to account for the amount of noise we see in our evaluations

Definitely important context. Both of my dynasty leagues are SF.

One is IDP, so that also skews the perception of the quality of a draft for me a bit.

 

[menobrown]

So I'm probably going to have to get into that mix a little but years ago I decided it's best to let someone else draft TE's in that round one/early round two area and be the guy buying them later at a discount.

This is how I approach it. Who's your TE1, though? Dalton Kincaid? He seems to be the second one in most mocks, and if it's not Mayer, then I'm guessing...

Yes. It's early and of course subject to change so nothing concrete but I'm drafting today I'd put Kincaid over Mayer. It's very close.

 

[rockaction]

s. Mayer’s got another 25 lbs and he plays more tradition in-line TE. Preferring to play TE heavy in my fantasy approach, I also like to pay attention multi-year here to stock the room on my team

Don't you specifically want guys who aren't in-line guys? In other words, if you can get a WR with a TE designation, isn't that what you're looking for? If they're too good at blocking, the coach leaves them in to block.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

s. Mayer’s got another 25 lbs and he plays more tradition in-line TE. Preferring to play TE heavy in my fantasy approach, I also like to pay attention multi-year here to stock the room on my team

Don't you specifically want guys who aren't in-line guys? In other words, if you can get a WR with a TE designation, isn't that what you're looking for? If they're too good at blocking, the coach leaves them in to block.

See: Kittle, and why he hasn’t been as consistently valuable as he might otherwise have been.
(That, and injuries)

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

So I'm probably going to have to get into that mix a little but years ago I decided it's best to let someone else draft TE's in that round one/early round two area and be the guy buying them later at a discount.

This is how I approach it. Who's your TE1, though? Dalton Kincaid? He seems to be the second one in most mocks, and if it's not Mayer, then I'm guessing...

Yes. It's early and of course subject to change so nothing concrete but I'm drafting today I'd put Kincaid over Mayer. It's very close.

From what I’ve seen from the YouTube evaluators, you’re not on an island. Several prefer Kincaid, though Mayer has been getting all the shine.

 

[menobrown]

So I'm probably going to have to get into that mix a little but years ago I decided it's best to let someone else draft TE's in that round one/early round two area and be the guy buying them later at a discount.

This is how I approach it. Who's your TE1, though? Dalton Kincaid? He seems to be the second one in most mocks, and if it's not Mayer, then I'm guessing...

Yes. It's early and of course subject to change so nothing concrete but I'm drafting today I'd put Kincaid over Mayer. It's very close.

From what I’ve seen from the YouTube evaluators, you’re not on an island. Several prefer Kincaid, though Mayer has been getting all the shine.

Mayer seems like he's been around forever, he's been highly productive, durable, very young and has done so at a school that is fairly consistently putting TE's in the NFL. There are a lot of things to like and I'd be surprised if he was a total bust so at a risky position he seems fairly safe. I'm not trying to drag him down by putting Kincaid over him right now I just think Kincaid is a more fluid looking athlete and someone I think fits my critiera more of a TE who will be lined up out wide more then most which as I was saying earlier I think helps the learning curve.

I think we are all looking for the next Gronk or Kelce. If you try you can see hints of Gronk in Mayer, hints of Kelce in Kincaid. I think it was Daniel Jermiah who tweeted out he saw both Kelce and Ertz in Kincaid's game. They are both really good prospects as are several others and I think people are seriously sleeping on Luke Musgrave who I do believe can legit end up as the TE1 in rookie drafts before all is said and done. So I'm not really here for a big argument right now on who should be the TE1, I would however argue with people to keep an open mind over these next few months.

 

[Jayded]

s. Mayer’s got another 25 lbs and he plays more tradition in-line TE. Preferring to play TE heavy in my fantasy approach, I also like to pay attention multi-year here to stock the room on my team

Don't you specifically want guys who aren't in-line guys? In other words, if you can get a WR with a TE designation, isn't that what you're looking for? If they're too good at blocking, the coach leaves them in to block.

Yes and no. Gronk played more because he also blocked and he was in there for potential TDs in goal line scenarios. The league going WR-centric makes me curious for how these tweener TEs really evolve in personnel groupings.

If Atlanta had a solid RB, Pitts, and London shows as a legit WR1 and they go heavy, you might find Pitts and London in and out of those formations. Your stud in-line TE is unlikely to swap out at all in those scenarios and might double those opportunities. Imagine the nightmare of solid RB back there, looking outside to see Pitts/London, but here sneaks a 6’5 stud like Mayer over the middle with some poor safety making a highlight reel you-got-Moss’d Monday film mistake.

 

[rockaction]

Yes and no. Gronk played more because he also blocked and he was in there for potential TDs in goal line scenarios

Right. I think that was the common thinking. You want those Tebow-esque jump passes to the TE on the goal line (I'm kidding there. Some form of goal-line or red zone success is what you're looking for). But I don't think that's enough to carry the day in terms of consistent point scoring. Touchdowns are a hope, targets are earned and are a sticky stat from year to year in terms of predictive value. But you probably know that and just are looking at it differently or gently disagreeing.

This isn't to argue against Mayer. I'm nowhere near caught up enough to have an informed opinion. The combine will settle a lot of things about the TEs. In a different thread, somebody was talking about the utility of RAS, and I think that holds and will hold here. It should be interesting.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

So I'm probably going to have to get into that mix a little but years ago I decided it's best to let someone else draft TE's in that round one/early round two area and be the guy buying them later at a discount.

This is how I approach it. Who's your TE1, though? Dalton Kincaid? He seems to be the second one in most mocks, and if it's not Mayer, then I'm guessing...

Yes. It's early and of course subject to change so nothing concrete but I'm drafting today I'd put Kincaid over Mayer. It's very close.

From what I’ve seen from the YouTube evaluators, you’re not on an island. Several prefer Kincaid, though Mayer has been getting all the shine.

Mayer seems like he's been around forever, he's been highly productive, durable, very young and has done so at a school that is fairly consistently putting TE's in the NFL. There are a lot of things to like and I'd be surprised if he was a total bust so at a risky position he seems fairly safe. I'm not trying to drag him down by putting Kincaid over him right now I just think Kincaid is a more fluid looking athlete and someone I think fits my critiera more of a TE who will be lined up out wide more then most which as I was saying earlier I think helps the learning curve.

I think we are all looking for the next Gronk or Kelce. If you try you can see hints of Gronk in Mayer, hints of Kelce in Kincaid. I think it was Daniel Jermiah who tweeted out he saw both Kelce and Ertz in Kincaid's game. They are both really good prospects as are several others and I think people are seriously sleeping on Luke Musgrave who I do believe can legit end up as the TE1 in rookie drafts before all is said and done. So I'm not really here for a big argument right now on who should be the TE1, I would however argue with people to keep an open mind over these next few months.

Totally fair. And to be clear, most of the folks I’ve seen who prefer Kincaid specifically cited athleticism as the reason.

 

[IHEARTFF]

This is shaping up to be the correct answer

I remember the discussion last off-season that these classes never live up to the “next draft” hype. Some people did not want to believe it, but it’s a “rinse and repeat” every offseason it seem.

It won't be as ballyhooed as we heard last year, but it's still going to be deep at RB. So I won't slag the class or anything. It's just that expectations were super super high. We still might get a bit of a historic class in terms of pure depth at RB through two rounds, but I don't necessarily know all the details or where the players will land yet.

Another key difference is the potential of 3-4 1st round QBs.

Last year there was…Pickett. And he wasn’t exactly coveted by the teams drafting in the top half, even with many needing a QB.

This year is different with at least 2 qbs expected to go up top. I think people were expecting a few qbs to go round 1 and them all slipping was surprising.

 

[Jayded]

Appreciate the fun back and forth but I’ll save the rest of my fanboy Mayer love for his thread lol. I do think it’s possible we may start to see the next maturation phase of the position and am curious how it’ll ripple to fantasy.

Everyone’s looking for the next Kelce. Marques Colston frustrated fantasy sites and leagues years ago. Hernandez changed perceptions. Kelce’s been a cheat code. If Pitts doesn’t pan out, we know the NFL is a copycat league. Very curious how the position could evolve if this new breed continues to be as hit and miss as it’s been.

 

[rockaction]

I do think it’s possible we may start to see the next maturation phase of the position and am curious how it’ll ripple to fantasy.

Should be interesting to see.

 

[EBF]

Funny thing about the TE position is that many of the monster hits are guys who weren't quite in the top tier as draft prospects. I'm thinking of Gronk, Graham, Kelce, Andrews. All were 2nd-3rd round rookie picks in my 12 team leagues. Might as well throw Kittle in there too, though he was an even bigger longshot. On the other hand you have people like Winslow, Ebron, Engram, Hockenson, and Pitts largely failing to live up the full hype for various reasons. Question may not be which of the TEs is best, but which is the best value.

I'm a big proponent of draft position as the first starting point for constructing rankings and I think there are some extenuating circumstances with some of these guys on both sides. For example, Graham was a raw basketball-first guy at Miami and Gronk sat out a full season injured at AZ. So there's an argument that both guys didn't go round 1 simply because of circumstances, and not talent issues. All the same, I feel like the play with TEs is to let your competition burn capital on the top prospect and then mine the second tier guys a round or two later. The gap in perceived value seems a lot greater than the gap in actual value, even if I'm cherry-picking the hits and misses a little bit. There's very little upside when you take a Pitts or Engram top 6 because either he becomes 1,000+ yard TE or you end up regretting the pick, whereas the second tier guys are pure upside in the 25-35 range of rookie drafts. You're happy if they max out as 800 yard TEs and you're ecstatic if they become perennial Pro Bowlers.

I got Graham and Andrews in numerous rookie drafts. Not because I knew they'd be great, but rather because they just fell to a range where they represented great value compared with the WR/RB options still on the board.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

Luke Musgrave a round or two after the first tight ends come off the board seems a better use of resources to me.

 

[menobrown]

Luke Musgrave a round or two after the first tight ends come off the board seems a better use of resources to me.

Sounds good but my guess is when he runs in the 4.4's and goes high in the NFL draft this won't be an option.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

Luke Musgrave a round or two after the first tight ends come off the board seems a better use of resources to me.

Sounds good but my guess is when he runs in the 4.4's and goes high in the NFL draft this won't be an option.

I'm basing this on Mayer somehow going at the 1.07. That'd mean he was the first tight end taken most likely.

Honestly I wouldn't draft tight end at all personally, you can pick these guys up as throw ins in 2 years time when they still haven't broken out. But if someone was inclined to do so, I reckon it's a better bet to take whichever one doesn't go first. If Musgrave ends up the consensus 1st tight end, take Kincaid as the third a round later.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Appreciate the fun back and forth but I’ll save the rest of my fanboy Mayer love for his thread lol. I do think it’s possible we may start to see the next maturation phase of the position and am curious how it’ll ripple to fantasy.

Everyone’s looking for the next Kelce. Marques Colston frustrated fantasy sites and leagues years ago. Hernandez changed perceptions. Kelce’s been a cheat code. If Pitts doesn’t pan out, we know the NFL is a copycat league. Very curious how the position could evolve if this new breed continues to be as hit and miss as it’s been.

I like the kid & think he has a safe floor, but I don’t see the next Kelce. Not close.

 

[Crippler]

I think if somehow I end up getting a Herbert + 2023 1st for Burrow, it’s an auto accept. Just curious to feel out where that auto line is for folks outside looking in and/or if there isn’t that kind of QB to QB swap without eating too much value.

I would move Burrow for Herbert/ '23 1st in SF. I wouldn't trade Burrow straight up for Herbert but I think they're not soooo far away value-wise, so Herbert + another piece would help me would do it.

The Burrow discussion is interesting.

I am looking to shake up my team after a brutal Super Bowl loss ending 4 year reign.

This is 15 team PPR, SF, TE premium IDP league where lots of flex but only need to start 1 RB

one team has Lawrence, Chase, Pitts and pick 8(looking at Mayer). But his RBs are Antonio Gibson but he has 8-10 and more than likely gets Gibbs at 1.8. See the 4 QB, Bijan and 3 WR going before based on longevity as the teams with first before him have long road ahead.

i have MahoneS or Burroas to offer
can do RB of Hall, Walker, Barkley, Henry, Stevenson, Dobbins or Dillon
can do WR like Samuel, Diggs or Allen
also have picks 18, 22, 30 & 36

can include IDP also. Like a Joey Bosa, Wise or Cam Jordan
LB like Jack, Diablo, Kendrick’s, Damone Clark, Vander Esch, Werner
these are all beyond my starting 7

what is fair. I kind of put out Burrows, Walker, Samuel, #22, Bosa and Jack and feel high but is it more than fair offer. I think I should do Stevenson instead but is this going to cheap. Think a lot still but let the masses here decide.

 

[joey]

Just made a note to self to NOT take Mayer with any of my 1sts in my TE-P leagues and grab one of the next tier guys in the 2nd or 3rd. Thanks fellas.

 

[TartanLion]

Funny thing about the TE position is that many of the monster hits are guys who weren't quite in the top tier as draft prospects. I'm thinking of Gronk, Graham, Kelce, Andrews. All were 2nd-3rd round rookie picks in my 12 team leagues. Might as well throw Kittle in there too, though he was an even bigger longshot. On the other hand you have people like Winslow, Ebron, Engram, Hockenson, and Pitts largely failing to live up the full hype for various reasons. Question may not be which of the TEs is best, but which is the best value.

I'm a big proponent of draft position as the first starting point for constructing rankings and I think there are some extenuating circumstances with some of these guys on both sides. For example, Graham was a raw basketball-first guy at Miami and Gronk sat out a full season injured at AZ. So there's an argument that both guys didn't go round 1 simply because of circumstances, and not talent issues. All the same, I feel like the play with TEs is to let your competition burn capital on the top prospect and then mine the second tier guys a round or two later. The gap in perceived value seems a lot greater than the gap in actual value, even if I'm cherry-picking the hits and misses a little bit. There's very little upside when you take a Pitts or Engram top 6 because either he becomes 1,000+ yard TE or you end up regretting the pick, whereas the second tier guys are pure upside in the 25-35 range of rookie drafts. You're happy if they max out as 800 yard TEs and you're ecstatic if they become perennial Pro Bowlers.

I got Graham and Andrews in numerous rookie drafts. Not because I knew they'd be great, but rather because they just fell to a range where they represented great value compared with the WR/RB options still on the board.

This is the answer. How much would Hockenson cost NOW ? Owner tempted with a mid to late 1st possibly ?? Years in league and proven, but TE’s just don’t really increase in value drastically.Mine for cheap breakouts or go get a proven commodity at a later date

 

[HW_53]

Uhhh

 

[Magnum83]

How do y’all handle aging veterans on a win now team? For example, I have Mike Evans but have great WR depth and youth. Do you try to move in individually or part of a package? Do you sell low or ride him out?

 

[Birdie048]

How do y’all handle aging veterans on a win now team? For example, I have Mike Evans but have great WR depth and youth. Do you try to move in individually or part of a package? Do you sell low or ride him out?

Depends on what you market will offer... if you have Depth now to remain a Win Now, is the ROI worth it? Like would a 2024 potential mid/late 1st do it for you? What if injuries hit your roster, can you depth handle the loss(es) and still be "Title" worthy?
Each league / market is different ... Me, I was rebuild and sold Evans for 2 early 2nds ... and the other team took the Crown. Win-Win deal IMO.
For WR, the Age Cliff is not the same for all... but you could see Julio fall clearly off while Nuk has not, but likely will soon. And then add the QB issue for Evans ....

 

[TartanLion]

What’s Jerry Jeudy worth right now ? I’m looking for younger WRs that could still explode into the top tier - kind of fancy him to have a shot next year with a new coaching staff which might help Wilson. Ended the season looking better as well. Was just put on trade block in one of my leagues

 

[joey]

How do y’all handle aging veterans on a win now team? For example, I have Mike Evans but have great WR depth and youth. Do you try to move in individually or part of a package? Do you sell low or ride him out?

I have a Super Win Now team with Evans as my WR2 behind Adams, but not much quality depth to speak of (Lazard helped me tons earlier this year, and Theilen helped me tons the year before…Palmer, Van Jefferson…meh) but I can’t see myself trading Evans this offseason with how my roster is shaking out. But DURING this coming season, if my team isn’t looking like it can win it all…that’s when I’ll look to move a player like Evans to a contending team in hopes of getting max value at that point.

 

[jm192]

What’s Jerry Jeudy worth right now ? I’m looking for younger WRs that could still explode into the top tier - kind of fancy him to have a shot next year with a new coaching staff which might help Wilson. Ended the season looking better as well. Was just put on trade block in one of my leagues

Assuming 1 QB, Probably late 23 1st.

I'd want JSN, Addison, and Johnston over him.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

How do y’all handle aging veterans on a win now team? For example, I have Mike Evans but have great WR depth and youth. Do you try to move in individually or part of a package? Do you sell low or ride him out?

I blew up my entire team save for players under 25, even making moves to “win-now” teams for players like ARSB & ETN.

Lucky, too, as Carson is done with football, ARob needs to be put out to pasture, DHop gets banged up more and more, etc. of all the players I dealt, only Evans is still viable. And his hammy injuries seem to pop up more and more.

I don’t necessarily recommend a rebuild for everyone, but it’s awfully difficult to get win-now assets for aging former stars.

Much easier to get future picks. I was stockpiling 2023 picks in 2021.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

How do y’all handle aging veterans on a win now team? For example, I have Mike Evans but have great WR depth and youth. Do you try to move in individually or part of a package? Do you sell low or ride him out?

I have a Super Win Now team with Evans as my WR2 behind Adams, but not much quality depth to speak of (Lazard helped me tons earlier this year, and Theilen helped me tons the year before…Palmer, Van Jefferson…meh) but I can’t see myself trading Evans this offseason with how my roster is shaking out. But DURING this coming season, if my team isn’t looking like it can win it all…that’s when I’ll look to move a player like Evans to a contending team in hopes of getting max value at that point.

I’d move both Evans and Adams in-season if you can. Heck, I’d be tempted to move them before they fall off of a cliff.

If Brady doesn’t come back to TB, and Carr is out of Oakland, it might not even be age that catches up with them. They might just be victims of circumstance - and then good luck getting much for the 30 & 31 year olds, respectively if they don’t have their normally strong numbers.

Of course if ARod or Brady goes to OAK, or the Bucs bring in a Geno or Carr, maybe it would be best to wait.

Best time to deal those two was last year, unfortunately. Now there’s seemingly a lot more risk.

 

[jm192]

How do y’all handle aging veterans on a win now team? For example, I have Mike Evans but have great WR depth and youth. Do you try to move in individually or part of a package? Do you sell low or ride him out?

I want to move everyone, at some point.

Your dynasty team is essentially a stock portfolio. You know 1 day every asset will lose its value. To me the goal is always to be increasing the value of your portfolio. You win championships as a side effect of doing so.

I think you want to move him before it says "30" by age. 29 and 30 aren't that different, but there's some psychology to FF owners.

Obviously, get the most you can out of him. But don't die on the hill that Mike Evans is worth 10$, and keep him until he's worth 0$. Getting 6 or 7$ now is better than having nothing later.

I'd get some offers out now and see what you can get. If it's just absolutely gross, then hold him. People will be more keen to trade for him after circumstances change--injury, suspension, rough stretch of bye weeks, whatever.

I think any 1st, I'd seriously consider. A high 2nd and an ok prospect, I wouldn't instantly reject. If the best you can do is a 3rd, now you're getting into 10 cents instead of 10$, and I'd rather just milk today's production than get 10 cents.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think you want to move him before it says "30" by age. 29 and 30 aren't that different, but there's some psychology to FF owners.

I’ve said this many times. Wholeheartedly agree.

 

[menobrown]

How do y’all handle aging veterans on a win now team? For example, I have Mike Evans but have great WR depth and youth. Do you try to move in individually or part of a package? Do you sell low or ride him out?

My goal is to sell of older players when I can, regardless of if the team is in a win now position or not but that's a general rule but there are exceptions. I'm generally trying to do this a year earlier then a year to late.

I traded off Dalvin Cook in a few leagues but still held onto him in some and Kamara everywhere I had him on contending win now teams. In this instance I did not feel like I had the RB depth to lose them and viably compete. I also feel like I made a mistake, this was not my normal MO and it's something I might pay for a few years and will try and learn from this mistake.

In the situation like your Evans example , that to me becomes a super easy call, when you have depth. But saying that this is not the best time of the year to try and deal older vets who showed some slippage already.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm generally trying to do this a year earlier then a year to late.

Hello, Bill Walsh

 

[menobrown]

I'm generally trying to do this a year earlier then a year to late.

Hello, Bill Walsh

Obviously in a perfect world we'd all move our players just in the nick of time. A few weeks ago I did a Tyreek for 1.2 trade I posted in the trade thread and gave an overly lengthy explanation. This to me is a perfect example of selling a year early. I see no valid reason to expect a decline in Tryeek's performance next season. It's possible I could have enjoyed another year of his services and then tried to move him but I felt like I'd rather get out now then trying to move a 30 year old speed reliant WR in 2024.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

But saying that this is not the best time of the year to try and deal older vets who showed some slippage already.

Agree here - but I could see a preseason “dead cat bounce” of sorts in value if the Bucs sign a QB (resign Brady, bring in Carr, Geno, etc)

To me, that would be the preseason window of relative excitement to sell Evans higher than one might get in-season if the production doesn’t match that off-season excitement.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

but I felt like I'd rather get out now then trying to move a 30 year old speed reliant WR in 2024.

Agree entirely with that move. That, and his QB’s questionable health, coming off of a highly productive season - perfect time to send him.

 

[Buckna]

I think you want to move him before it says "30" by age. 29 and 30 aren't that different, but there's some psychology to FF owners.

I’ve said this many times. Wholeheartedly agree.

At least in my leagues 29 is still too late most of the time, especially in the off-season. Dynasty players have perpetually looked to younger and younger ages, I see posts in some of these threads literally saying WRs turning 26 next season aren’t good targets due to getting up there in age, and that’s roughly age 25 or 26 now for RB’s too. Some of that is we haven’t had any aging studs last later into their careers in a while. Wasn’t there talk last year that there hadn’t been a top 10 RB over age 26 in many years? This past season we had 3 of 4 depending scoring. High profile WRs like AJ Green, Julio, Antonio Brown, etc. didn’t make it into their early 30’s, much less mid-30’s.

Honestly I have been taking the other approach in my leagues where I am not rebuilding, have a core of younger guys but then you can buy old guys really cheaply in a lot of leagues now to fill out that RB3, backup or flex type spot. Aging WR’s in particular sometimes people will dump for pennies on the dollar, especially when injured or will miss multiple games in season. Hopkins and Keenan Allen being good examples this past year. Adams got moved pretty cheaply in a lot of my leagues last year after he got traded as another example (same with Tyreek.) Obviously it’s a question of how much you pay and you need to shop around for a bargain. Then if these old guys fall off a cliff, they didn’t cost you much usually.

 

[menobrown]

Wasn’t there talk last year that there hadn’t been a top 10 RB over age 26 in many years? This past season we had 3 of 4 depending scoring.

I think it was 27 and I was pushing a lot of that talk and believe in it even more now then I did last year.

With the 2017 draft class all hitting 26/27 this year it was always the expectation we'd see a lot of them in the top 10. Where you point out a few were top 10 I'd say high majority of them looked a step slower and lost value based on how they looked, just not that they are a year older which obviously is bringing down all their values.

There are always a few exceptions and some nuance. Derrick Henry is a big exception. Ekeler at 27 had his best season but there a usage factor with him and style of play that is quite different and that requires some nuance. Some RB's like Mixon and Elliot looked petered out in their age 26 season. So to me, and again with some nuance involved, I think if you wait till a RB is 27 you've waited to long a considerably high majority of the time. If you move them before their age 26 season you are probably 50/50 on having moved them a year before the drop in production, but drop off in their play or not again it's rare to find one that is a massively declining asset.

In short on Rb's I feel like I can cash out on most of them before their age 27 season it's what I would prefer to do and years of looking at this has only reaffirmed that for me.

 

[BeTheMatch]

I'm generally trying to do this a year earlier then a year to late.

Hello, Bill Walsh

Obviously in a perfect world we'd all move our players just in the nick of time. A few weeks ago I did a Tyreek for 1.2 trade I posted in the trade thread and gave an overly lengthy explanation. This to me is a perfect example of selling a year early. I see no valid reason to expect a decline in Tryeek's performance next season. It's possible I could have enjoyed another year of his services and then tried to move him but I felt like I'd rather get out now then trying to move a 30 year old speed reliant WR in 2024.

But what about this year? You're team is either that bad or that good that you're willing to take a likely huge hit this year? And probably next?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm generally trying to do this a year earlier then a year to late.

Hello, Bill Walsh

Obviously in a perfect world we'd all move our players just in the nick of time. A few weeks ago I did a Tyreek for 1.2 trade I posted in the trade thread and gave an overly lengthy explanation. This to me is a perfect example of selling a year early. I see no valid reason to expect a decline in Tryeek's performance next season. It's possible I could have enjoyed another year of his services and then tried to move him but I felt like I'd rather get out now then trying to move a 30 year old speed reliant WR in 2024.

But what about this year? You're team is either that bad or that good that you're willing to take a likely huge hit this year? And probably next?

That’s the rubicon, really.

If , hypothetically speaking, you have a team that’s stacked otherwise, and can win the ‘ship by standing pat while guys like Adams, Evans, & Henry age out, then I say go for it, collect those winnings & worry about tomorrow tomorrow.

At some point playing dynasty is about winning that ‘ship. Those windows are often short and rare, so if you’re feeling like this is it, then go for it.

But if your team is just close, but not truly dominant - if putting all your eggs into the basket of winning a ‘ship at the expense of those players dying on the vine on your roster, and you’re not set up to compete beyond this year?

That, to me, is when you need to sell.

And even in the 1st scenario, those older players are seemingly more at risk of a mid-season injury, so obviously there are no locks to win a ‘ship with them.

When I blew up my team, it was basically all of my best players over 27-28 and in DHop’s case 29. I’d been in the playoffs 3 straight years, and finished 2nd, 3rd, and 2nd - and was beaten by 40-50 points every time. So I felt like all I was doing was diminishing my assets. And to make matters worse, I kept dealing 1st round picks to “go for it”, because I was always a player away, so I wasn’t getting younger, either. But I’d always have some fluke injury hit, causing me to *still* be a player away.

It’s very much in the eye of the beholder, but one factor is constant: those assets are depreciating. Every year that goes by, the window shrinks. And unlike the stock portfolio analogy made earlier, there’s little chance of a bull market suddenly hitting your aging assets. Every day past 27 it’s a bear market for both their performance, and when trying to move them.

 

[BeTheMatch]

I'm generally trying to do this a year earlier then a year to late.

Hello, Bill Walsh

Obviously in a perfect world we'd all move our players just in the nick of time. A few weeks ago I did a Tyreek for 1.2 trade I posted in the trade thread and gave an overly lengthy explanation. This to me is a perfect example of selling a year early. I see no valid reason to expect a decline in Tryeek's performance next season. It's possible I could have enjoyed another year of his services and then tried to move him but I felt like I'd rather get out now then trying to move a 30 year old speed reliant WR in 2024.

But what about this year? You're team is either that bad or that good that you're willing to take a likely huge hit this year? And probably next?

That’s the rubicon, really.

If , hypothetically speaking, you have a team that’s stacked otherwise, and can win the ‘ship by standing pat while guys like Adams, Evans, & Henry age out, then I say go for it, collect those winnings & worry about tomorrow tomorrow.

At some point playing dynasty is about winning that ‘ship. Those windows are often short and rare, so if you’re feeling like this is it, then go for it.

But if your team is just close, but not truly dominant - if putting all your eggs into the basket of winning a ‘ship at the expense of those players dying on the vine on your roster, and you’re not set up to compete beyond this year?

That, to me, is when you need to sell.

And even in the 1st scenario, those older players are seemingly more at risk of a mid-season injury, so obviously there are no locks to win a ‘ship with them.

When I blew up my team, it was basically all of my best players over 27-28 and in DHop’s case 29. I’d been in the playoffs 3 straight years, and finished 2nd, 3rd, and 2nd - and was beaten by 40-50 points every time. So I felt like all I was doing was diminishing my assets. And to make matters worse, I kept dealing 1st round picks to “go for it”, because I was always a player away, so I wasn’t getting younger, either. But I’d always have some fluke injury hit, causing me to *still* be a player away.

It’s very much in the eye of the beholder, but one factor is constant: those assets are depreciating. Every year that goes by, the window shrinks. And unlike the stock portfolio analogy made earlier, there’s little chance of a bull market suddenly hitting your aging assets. Every day past 27 it’s a bear market for both their performance, and when trying to move them.

Right, so why not keep them and hope to win if you're close at all? Why sell for pennies on the dollar?

I would never have blown up your team in that situation. You got to the championship twice but because you lost a single game you give up? There is so much luck involved in fantasy, especially against one team during one week. That seems insane to me. But as you said, that's fine. To each their own.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Right, so why not keep them and hope to win if you're close at all? Why sell for pennies on the dollar?

That’s a what I’m saying in part.

But it takes a hard look - we all look at our teams through rose-colored glasses.

Reality might be that you’re shooting rubber bands at the moon.

If your team isn’t actually that close, then all you’re doing is turning low value players into no-value players by sitting on them.

In the case of Adams, Henry, Hill, and Evans, these guys are coming off of WR1-2 & RB1-2 seasons. There are win-now teams in your league that will pay for these assets to go for it, knowing they’ll likely expire on their roster.

So with players like that, I’d rather take 70% and try to help my own rebuild than hold, miss the playoffs (or get booted early) and have worse draft equity as a result - all while those assets depreciated further.

I would never have blown up your team in that situation. You got to the championship twice but because you lost a single game you give up? There is so much luck involved in fantasy, especially against one team during one week. That seems insane to me. But as you said, that's fine. To each their own.

As you said, each to their own. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

In my case I traded away 8 core players. All between 27-29, and within a year, 6 of those were either out of football or bordering on a significant downturn. I have 7 of the 1st 13 picks this year, and after the draft no one on my roster will be over the age of 24.

The goal for me was to get a fresh start. And hopefully by the time my team can compete, the stacked teams are aging out and I’ll be able to acquire some aging veterans cheaply to help me with an LCG run.

 

[jm192]

I think you want to move him before it says "30" by age. 29 and 30 aren't that different, but there's some psychology to FF owners.

I’ve said this many times. Wholeheartedly agree.

At least in my leagues 29 is still too late most of the time, especially in the off-season. Dynasty players have perpetually looked to younger and younger ages, I see posts in some of these threads literally saying WRs turning 26 next season aren’t good targets due to getting up there in age, and that’s roughly age 25 or 26 now for RB’s too. Some of that is we haven’t had any aging studs last later into their careers in a while. Wasn’t there talk last year that there hadn’t been a top 10 RB over age 26 in many years? This past season we had 3 of 4 depending scoring. High profile WRs like AJ Green, Julio, Antonio Brown, etc. didn’t make it into their early 30’s, much less mid-30’s.

Honestly I have been taking the other approach in my leagues where I am not rebuilding, have a core of younger guys but then you can buy old guys really cheaply in a lot of leagues now to fill out that RB3, backup or flex type spot. Aging WR’s in particular sometimes people will dump for pennies on the dollar, especially when injured or will miss multiple games in season. Hopkins and Keenan Allen being good examples this past year. Adams got moved pretty cheaply in a lot of my leagues last year after he got traded as another example. Obviously it’s a question of how much you pay and you need to shop around for a bargain. Then if these old guys fall off a cliff, they didn’t cost you much usually.

I think it's position dependent.

30 is old no matter what position you play.
27 is old for RB.

As you said, depends on the bargain. Someone wants to give me Adams for a late 2nd or a 3rd, I'll be hard pressed to say no to that. I think most people are going to demand more.

 

[Marauder]

26 is the new 27 for RB's. I'm now trying to trade them at age 25.

 

[menobrown]

I'm generally trying to do this a year earlier then a year to late.

Hello, Bill Walsh

Obviously in a perfect world we'd all move our players just in the nick of time. A few weeks ago I did a Tyreek for 1.2 trade I posted in the trade thread and gave an overly lengthy explanation. This to me is a perfect example of selling a year early. I see no valid reason to expect a decline in Tryeek's performance next season. It's possible I could have enjoyed another year of his services and then tried to move him but I felt like I'd rather get out now then trying to move a 30 year old speed reliant WR in 2024.

But what about this year? You're team is either that bad or that good that you're willing to take a likely huge hit this year? And probably next?

I explained it in great detail on page 867 of the trade thread, dated Jan 10th. To long to cut and paste without cluttering this thread.

 

[Lehigh98]

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

insanity​

noun​

in·san·i·ty in-ˈsa-nə-tē

1 dated : a severely disordered state of mind usually occurring as a specific disorder
2 law : unsoundness of mind or lack of the ability to understand that prevents someone from having the mental capacity required by law to enter into a particular relationship, status, or transaction or that releases someone from criminal or civil responsibility
3 a : extreme folly or unreasonableness
the insanity of violence
His comments were pure insanity.
3 b : something utterly foolish or unreasonable
the insanities of modern life

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

insanity​

noun​

in·san·i·ty in-ˈsa-nə-tē

1 dated : a severely disordered state of mind usually occurring as a specific disorder
2 law : unsoundness of mind or lack of the ability to understand that prevents someone from having the mental capacity required by law to enter into a particular relationship, status, or transaction or that releases someone from criminal or civil responsibility
3 a : extreme folly or unreasonableness
the insanity of violence
His comments were pure insanity.
3 b : something utterly foolish or unreasonable
the insanities of modern life

Very literal of you.

 

[jm192]

I'm generally trying to do this a year earlier then a year to late.

Hello, Bill Walsh

Obviously in a perfect world we'd all move our players just in the nick of time. A few weeks ago I did a Tyreek for 1.2 trade I posted in the trade thread and gave an overly lengthy explanation. This to me is a perfect example of selling a year early. I see no valid reason to expect a decline in Tryeek's performance next season. It's possible I could have enjoyed another year of his services and then tried to move him but I felt like I'd rather get out now then trying to move a 30 year old speed reliant WR in 2024.

But what about this year? You're team is either that bad or that good that you're willing to take a likely huge hit this year? And probably next?

That’s the rubicon, really.

If , hypothetically speaking, you have a team that’s stacked otherwise, and can win the ‘ship by standing pat while guys like Adams, Evans, & Henry age out, then I say go for it, collect those winnings & worry about tomorrow tomorrow.

At some point playing dynasty is about winning that ‘ship. Those windows are often short and rare, so if you’re feeling like this is it, then go for it.

But if your team is just close, but not truly dominant - if putting all your eggs into the basket of winning a ‘ship at the expense of those players dying on the vine on your roster, and you’re not set up to compete beyond this year?

That, to me, is when you need to sell.

And even in the 1st scenario, those older players are seemingly more at risk of a mid-season injury, so obviously there are no locks to win a ‘ship with them.

When I blew up my team, it was basically all of my best players over 27-28 and in DHop’s case 29. I’d been in the playoffs 3 straight years, and finished 2nd, 3rd, and 2nd - and was beaten by 40-50 points every time. So I felt like all I was doing was diminishing my assets. And to make matters worse, I kept dealing 1st round picks to “go for it”, because I was always a player away, so I wasn’t getting younger, either. But I’d always have some fluke injury hit, causing me to *still* be a player away.

It’s very much in the eye of the beholder, but one factor is constant: those assets are depreciating. Every year that goes by, the window shrinks. And unlike the stock portfolio analogy made earlier, there’s little chance of a bull market suddenly hitting your aging assets. Every day past 27 it’s a bear market for both their performance, and when trying to move them.

Right, so why not keep them and hope to win if you're close at all? Why sell for pennies on the dollar?

I would never have blown up your team in that situation. You got to the championship twice but because you lost a single game you give up? There is so much luck involved in fantasy, especially against one team during one week. That seems insane to me. But as you said, that's fine. To each their own.

First and foremost, you don't sell for pennies on the dollar. You sell for 75 cents on the dollar. You take a hair cut to avoid keeping an asset so long that you get zero cents on the dollar. If all you can get is pennies on the dollar, then you hold. Saving 10 cents won't help you.

You're not going to turn 29 year old Mike Evans into 25 year old Mike Evans. But a guy looking to win now, maybe Aiyuk, Bateman, Dotson, etc aren't as reliable. And a lot of people do have the mindset of "it's time to go all in on winning now."

The problem with going all in when your entire roster is 27-29--you're just not that far from everyone falling off a cliff. And all of a sudden you have a team full of Julio Jones, Ezekiel Elliott, TY Hilton, Jarvis Landry, etc.

And now you rebuild. You've probably got a couple of young guys from recent drafts. You didn't sell any of your vets for youth or future picks. So you have 1 1st and 1 2nd each year. It's going to take you 4-5 years to really reload.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The problem with going all in when your entire roster is 27-29--you're just not that far from everyone falling off a cliff. And all of a sudden you have a team full of Julio Jones, Ezekiel Elliott, TY Hilton, Jarvis Landry, etc.

That was exactly my position. Different names, same problems.

So to the question of “why not just keep going for it” the answer is because if you don’t win it all, you’ve decreased the chances of success in future seasons, and potentially risked getting caught with a bare cupboard in the not too distant future.

 

[ghostguy123]

Looking at the potential of a Justin Jefferson deal in 12 team PPR (FFPC) 1 QB league

Tell me if how you think any of these packages stacks up, and which you prefer.

1- Jameson Williams, Dallas Goedert, pick 1.07, 2024 1st

2- Pick 1.01, pick 1.09, 2024 1st

3- pick 1.01, Deebo

It's always hard to work a deal for a top stud who is young

 

[menobrown]

Looking at the potential of a Justin Jefferson deal in 12 team PPR (FFPC) 1 QB league

Tell me if how you think any of these packages stacks up, and which you prefer.

1- Jameson Williams, Dallas Goedert, pick 1.07, 2024 1st

2- Pick 1.01, pick 1.09, 2024 1st

3- pick 1.01, Deebo

It's always hard to work a deal for a top stud who is

2 is far and away the best return/most to give up IMO.

Option one is the least return/give up.