Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (14 Viewers)

[efactor]

Any thoughts on value of Aaron Jones or Alvin Kamara? I have both, probably wanting to move one, both feel like the spot where only a contender would be interested, I'm not getting a first, but a second seems not enough. Maybe a 2024 first so that those in a win now spot don't lose a year of production from a pick they'd give up?

Kamara has the probable suspension hanging over his head, so that will diminish value. Plus, he just didn't look that good last year. TD numbers way down. I would move him for a 2024 1st. His receiving numbers have been way down since Brees retired too. Surprised he has never had a 1000 yard rushing season.

Jones is a tough one. If he stays in GB, Dillons role will keep him from being a top 10 kind of back IMO. Who will the QB be? Probably someone willing to give a first if they are contending

 

[ghostguy123]

Jones value almost dies if Rodgers leaves.
Kamara? Good luck getting any 1st there

 

[ffmail4me]

What are people getting for Ridley these days?

Picked him up on the cheap and my WR room is pretty set already, so don't really need him in the immediate future (2 years) and am thinking of offering him up for a younger WR like Pierce or Skyy Moore.

I think with Lawrence rise and the Jags having such a quick turn around the window to get Ridley cheap is over. And yes, I would gladly move Moore or Pierce to land Ridley. He went in the 9th round in a startup SF PPR Dynasty league I am drafting in right now, just after Cooper and Evans, but before Bateman, K. Allen, Sutton, Mike Williams, etc.

One thing you’re leaving out. Ridley is a head case who quit on his team. What if that rears its ugly head again? Not to mention he wasn’t exactly setting the woods on fire before he quit and hasn’t played in 2 years and is two years older.

Some would say Randy Moss did the same thing when he was stuck with Raiders. With an aging Matt Ryan and pretty bad Falcons teams I can see like Moss in Oakland where his heart and passion wasn’t there. maybe he just needed a new team like Moss did?

Apples to oranges. Ridley actually quit the NFL because of mental issues. Who’s to say that is better? Nothing like the Moss situation in Oakland
I still think its possible his "mental health" issues were losing his love/passion to play the game in Altanta, again, similar to what happened with Moss in Oakland.

I think its very possible Ridley's "mental health" issues were just what I talked about, him losing his passion and desire to play for a crappy Falcons team. And that is similar to Moss in Oakland. I guess we'll have a much better idea if he comes back and looks like an all pro and stays clean off the field. I think its very possible we see a very motivated and much happier Ridley in Jacksonville. But yes, I acknowledge there are risks for sure.

I doubt “very possible “ that the Ridley situation mirrors Moss, is appropriate to characterize someone’s mental health with an opinion and guessing. It borders on irresponsible.

Calling me irresponsible sounds very millennial cancel cultural like attitude.

Jones value almost dies if Rodgers leaves.
Kamara? Good luck getting any 1st there

I could imagine some owners not willing to even give a 2nd for Kamara at this point.

 

[Blick]

Any thoughts on value of Aaron Jones or Alvin Kamara? I have both, probably wanting to move one, both feel like the spot where only a contender would be interested, I'm not getting a first, but a second seems not enough. Maybe a 2024 first so that those in a win now spot don't lose a year of production from a pick they'd give up?

Kamara has the probable suspension hanging over his head, so that will diminish value. Plus, he just didn't look that good last year. TD numbers way down. I would move him for a 2024 1st. His receiving numbers have been way down since Brees retired too. Surprised he has never had a 1000 yard rushing season.

Jones is a tough one. If he stays in GB, Dillons role will keep him from being a top 10 kind of back IMO. Who will the QB be? Probably someone willing to give a first if they are contending

I don’t think you’re getting a 1st for either of them.

 

[ghostguy123]

What are people getting for Ridley these days?

Picked him up on the cheap and my WR room is pretty set already, so don't really need him in the immediate future (2 years) and am thinking of offering him up for a younger WR like Pierce or Skyy Moore.

I think with Lawrence rise and the Jags having such a quick turn around the window to get Ridley cheap is over. And yes, I would gladly move Moore or Pierce to land Ridley. He went in the 9th round in a startup SF PPR Dynasty league I am drafting in right now, just after Cooper and Evans, but before Bateman, K. Allen, Sutton, Mike Williams, etc.

One thing you’re leaving out. Ridley is a head case who quit on his team. What if that rears its ugly head again? Not to mention he wasn’t exactly setting the woods on fire before he quit and hasn’t played in 2 years and is two years older.

Some would say Randy Moss did the same thing when he was stuck with Raiders. With an aging Matt Ryan and pretty bad Falcons teams I can see like Moss in Oakland where his heart and passion wasn’t there. maybe he just needed a new team like Moss did?

Apples to oranges. Ridley actually quit the NFL because of mental issues. Who’s to say that is better? Nothing like the Moss situation in Oakland
I still think its possible his "mental health" issues were losing his love/passion to play the game in Altanta, again, similar to what happened with Moss in Oakland.

I think its very possible Ridley's "mental health" issues were just what I talked about, him losing his passion and desire to play for a crappy Falcons team. And that is similar to Moss in Oakland. I guess we'll have a much better idea if he comes back and looks like an all pro and stays clean off the field. I think its very possible we see a very motivated and much happier Ridley in Jacksonville. But yes, I acknowledge there are risks for sure.

I doubt “very possible “ that the Ridley situation mirrors Moss, is appropriate to characterize someone’s mental health with an opinion and guessing. It borders on irresponsible.

Calling me irresponsible sounds very millennial cancel cultural like attitude.

Jones value almost dies if Rodgers leaves.
Kamara? Good luck getting any 1st there

I could imagine some owners not willing to even give a 2nd for Kamara at this point.

I would.
Mid 2nd this year or future 2nd

 

[TartanLion]

What are people getting for Ridley these days?

Picked him up on the cheap and my WR room is pretty set already, so don't really need him in the immediate future (2 years) and am thinking of offering him up for a younger WR like Pierce or Skyy Moore.

Offered Algeier for him and was turned down with no counter. He’s an interesting notion, but some owners are liable to over value him

 

[JohnnyU]

What are people getting for Ridley these days?

Picked him up on the cheap and my WR room is pretty set already, so don't really need him in the immediate future (2 years) and am thinking of offering him up for a younger WR like Pierce or Skyy Moore.

Offered Algeier for him and was turned down with no counter. He’s an interesting notion, but some owners are liable to over value him

It seems as if some people have a short memory when it comes to Ridley.

 

[ghostguy123]

What are people getting for Ridley these days?

Picked him up on the cheap and my WR room is pretty set already, so don't really need him in the immediate future (2 years) and am thinking of offering him up for a younger WR like Pierce or Skyy Moore.

Offered Algeier for him and was turned down with no counter. He’s an interesting notion, but some owners are liable to over value him

It seems as if some people have a short memory when it comes to Ridley.

A lotta people acquired him hoping for a breakout in 2023.
A lotta other people held him hoping for a breakout in 2023.
It doesn't matter what his value should be, the people who own him are going to value him high because of how/why they have him in the first place.

 

[Jayded]

Talked about another QB on my roster before, but I forgot about one - what do we make of Jameis Winston?

I traded for him in the offseason as a bridge to getting Watson back and then the Saints go and bench him for Andy Dalton and we never see him again.

Is he almost droppable? Headed for NFL backup duties? Does he hold any trade value at all in fantasy or is he that “maybe” boat anchor I’m stuck with until he sinks?

 

[ghostguy123]

Talked about another QB on my roster before, but I forgot about one - what do we make of Jameis Winston?

I traded for him in the offseason as a bridge to getting Watson back and then the Saints go and bench him for Andy Dalton and we never see him again.

Is he almost droppable? Headed for NFL backup duties? Does he hold any trade value at all in fantasy or is he that “maybe” boat anchor I’m stuck with until he sinks?

Any league parameters you want to mention?
In FFPC 1 QB he's worthless

 

[ffmail4me]

Talked about another QB on my roster before, but I forgot about one - what do we make of Jameis Winston?

I traded for him in the offseason as a bridge to getting Watson back and then the Saints go and bench him for Andy Dalton and we never see him again.

Is he almost droppable? Headed for NFL backup duties? Does he hold any trade value at all in fantasy or is he that “maybe” boat anchor I’m stuck with until he sinks?

I just finished a startup SF Dynasty league and he went in the 20th round. After QBs like Trask, Mayfield, Darnold, Zappe. He's fallen pretty far I'd say.

 

[Jayded]

Talked about another QB on my roster before, but I forgot about one - what do we make of Jameis Winston?

I traded for him in the offseason as a bridge to getting Watson back and then the Saints go and bench him for Andy Dalton and we never see him again.

Is he almost droppable? Headed for NFL backup duties? Does he hold any trade value at all in fantasy or is he that “maybe” boat anchor I’m stuck with until he sinks?

Any league parameters you want to mention?
In FFPC 1 QB he's worthless

Sorry, forgot. It’s superflex but otherwise pretty standard QB setup. Benches are huge but we start 22 players per week so even returners have value.

Likely hyperbole about dropping him, but 16 teams + superflex usually means some team has 0 or 1 “startable” QBs. I now have Burrow + Watson, so he’s in my dart throw group of Huntley and Ehlinger with college kids coming.

At some point someone might just say heck I’ll throw you a late rounder, but might be best to just sit on him as a possible QB3 if he somehow starts elsewhere or an injury has him starting again.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It seems as if some people have a short memory when it comes to Ridley.

Or a long enough memory to dwell on when he was a WR1, with sugarplum dreams of that happening again.

Possible, but improbable.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It doesn't matter what his value should be, the people who own him are going to value him high because of how/why they have him in the first place.

Perfectly stated.

 

[BigAl21]

Does Moving Jameson Williams and 1.04 seem like fair value for clear WR upgrade like Waddle or Lamb? I think of these type of assets as serving this very purpose to get studs to lean on but was wondering others take on it. Short bench league like FFPC is also in play here.

 

[ffmail4me]

Does Moving Jameson Williams and 1.04 seem like fair value for clear WR upgrade like Waddle or Lamb? I think of these type of assets as serving this very purpose to get studs to lean on but was wondering others take on it. Short bench league like FFPC is also in play here.

If this helps Lamb went 1.11 in a PPR SF Dynasty Startup draft I just finished and Jameson went 5.9 and the 1.4 rookie pick went at 3.8. In a bubble I'm not sure most would give up a late 1st for a late 3rd and late 5th but I could be wrong. (and Waddle went at 2.5 for comparison)

 

[ghostguy123]

Does Moving Jameson Williams and 1.04 seem like fair value for clear WR upgrade like Waddle or Lamb? I think of these type of assets as serving this very purpose to get studs to lean on but was wondering others take on it. Short bench league like FFPC is also in play here.

Maybe Waddle, not enough for Lamb

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Value check
1. Darnell Mooney
• chemistry with an improving Fields
• coming off injury
• Bears still rebuilding, kind of a train-wreck
• 25 (turns 26 next season)

2. Marquis Brown
• coming off a foot injury
• Hopkins likely to be dealt
• Brown was a target monster while Hopkins was suspended
• Murray not likely to be ready for the start of the season
• 25, turns 26 next year

Looking around at potential buy-low candidates. Thinking about offering maybe Pacheco for Mooney, or Pacheco + 3.01 for Brown to see if I can get a bite.

They both have significant challenges, but if I’m looking to 2024 ~> they both have some potential upside.

Am I close in valuations? Smart investments or are both avoids?

 

[titusbramble]

I've traded for both Mooney and Pacheco in the last few months, what I paid for Mooney is a fair bit less than what I paid for Pacheco and he's been injured since then

 

[Boston]

Value check
1. Darnell Mooney
• chemistry with an improving Fields
• coming off injury
• Bears still rebuilding, kind of a train-wreck
• 25 (turns 26 next season)

2. Marquis Brown
• coming off a foot injury
• Hopkins likely to be dealt
• Brown was a target monster while Hopkins was suspended
• Murray not likely to be ready for the start of the season
• 25, turns 26 next year

Looking around at potential buy-low candidates. Thinking about offering maybe Pacheco for Mooney, or Pacheco + 3.01 for Brown to see if I can get a bite.

They both have significant challenges, but if I’m looking to 2024 ~> they both have some potential upside.

Am I close in valuations? Smart investments or are both avoids?

Mooney doesn't do much for me...as far as fantasy goes he's just a JAG...Pacheco is still a big question mark as far as fantasy goes but I would rather have him because he's an RB and while I am not going to over-value him after this year (and have zero issues cashing out right now as well) he has a chance to be a decent depth guy and you can never have enough of that at RB...it is easy to find guys of Mooney's caliber and would not give up any solid assets for him...Brown is a different story...real tough guy to get a handle on for the reasons you lay out (and you didn't even mention a new HC)...pre-injury he was putting up quality numbers...I don't think he's a bad target, but he is one of those guys where there could be a huge swing with how you value him and how his Owner values him (either good or bad)...ultimately whether to chase him would come down to what your WR unit looks like and what you see his role being in it.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Value check
1. Darnell Mooney
• chemistry with an improving Fields
• coming off injury
• Bears still rebuilding, kind of a train-wreck
• 25 (turns 26 next season)

2. Marquis Brown
• coming off a foot injury
• Hopkins likely to be dealt
• Brown was a target monster while Hopkins was suspended
• Murray not likely to be ready for the start of the season
• 25, turns 26 next year

Looking around at potential buy-low candidates. Thinking about offering maybe Pacheco for Mooney, or Pacheco + 3.01 for Brown to see if I can get a bite.

They both have significant challenges, but if I’m looking to 2024 ~> they both have some potential upside.

Am I close in valuations? Smart investments or are both avoids?

Dynasty value-wise, I think Hollywood has more value. That said, I think the CHI offense takes a giant leap this season. Will they be Mahomes and crew? No, but they can significantly limprove on the last two seasons. There is bang for the buck in Mooney right now, while Hollywood's situation is a little more strained. Even when Murray played this season, he didn't look good. ARI is locked into his contract for a LONG time and if they can't get him back to 100%, that whole team is screwed.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

real tough guy to get a handle on for the reasons you lay out (and you didn't even mention a new HC

Whoops. I actually meant to.

But yeah - a ton of variables.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Value check on Jordan Love in superflex? I'm tempted to throw out a few offers assuming 2nd round value (?).

 

[ffmail4me]

Value check on Jordan Love in superflex? I'm tempted to throw out a few offers assuming 2nd round value (?).

Same as drafting a rookie QB in a 1qb league IMO, probably worth a mid to late round 3rd round rookie pick. Completely unproven and if the offense wasn't that great with Rodgers does anyone really think it will be better without him? I don't. Ooops, you said SF league...hmmm, he went 8.12 in my startup SF league, which was right around the 2.3 rookie pick. So yeah, late 3rd in 1QB league, mid 2nd in a SF?

 

[zaner75]

Value check on Jordan Love in superflex? I'm tempted to throw out a few offers assuming 2nd round value (?).

Probably fair. I have Love in a couple of leagues. In a 14 team league, I was offered 2.06 earlier this year. Declined, as I prefer the QB lotto ticket versus a likely RB/WR lotto ticket but I can see others taking the pick. But then Brock Purdy was traded for a 24 1st (pre-injury) in that league so that changed the price point for me.

 

[JohnnyU]

Value check on Jordan Love in superflex? I'm tempted to throw out a few offers assuming 2nd round value (?).

I would rather have Love over a 2nd in SF

 

[Birdie048]

Value check on Jordan Love in superflex? I'm tempted to throw out a few offers assuming 2nd round value (?).

Picked him up as FA ... Spent $1 BB on him ... feels about right ... all betting on the "potential" since there is no real value yet... and as I had roster space ...
I would not offer a 2nd, but maybe a late 3rd in 1QB league. I would easily move him if offered a 2nd... this yr or next.

 

[foxco]

Value check on Jordan Love in superflex? I'm tempted to throw out a few offers assuming 2nd round value (?).

Picked him up as FA ... Spent $1 BB on him ... feels about right ... all betting on the "potential" since there is no real value yet... and as I had roster space ...
I would not offer a 2nd, but maybe a late 3rd in 1QB league. I would easily move him if offered a 2nd... this yr or next.

Yeah but in SF he's way more valuable, no way would I move him for a 2nd in SF, he's easily worth a 1st IMO.

 

[JohnnyU]

Value check on Jordan Love in superflex? I'm tempted to throw out a few offers assuming 2nd round value (?).

Picked him up as FA ... Spent $1 BB on him ... feels about right ... all betting on the "potential" since there is no real value yet... and as I had roster space ...
I would not offer a 2nd, but maybe a late 3rd in 1QB league. I would easily move him if offered a 2nd... this yr or next.

Yeah but in SF he's way more valuable, no way would I move him for a 2nd in SF, he's easily worth a 1st IMO.

I agree

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Value check on Jordan Love in superflex? I'm tempted to throw out a few offers assuming 2nd round value (?).

Picked him up as FA ... Spent $1 BB on him ... feels about right ... all betting on the "potential" since there is no real value yet... and as I had roster space ...
I would not offer a 2nd, but maybe a late 3rd in 1QB league. I would easily move him if offered a 2nd... this yr or next.

Yeah but in SF he's way more valuable, no way would I move him for a 2nd in SF, he's easily worth a 1st IMO.

I agree

Just want to say I really appreciate this entire exchange. In the league I lucked into a 1.01 acquisition, I also need a QB. It would seem better to deal for a QB & draft Bijan, but it’s 16 teams and SF, so a viable QB is tough to come by.

I inquired about Love earlier today, and the owner said he’s interested in moving him. I was struggling a bit to determine value, but from the sound of it, a 2024 1st would not be an unreasonable offer (or an overpay)?

Obviously some risk, but Love has shown ability, and he does have weapons. Also not for nuthin, GB seems like a better franchise to invest in than say, the Texans.

What are the odds that Love starts in ‘23?

What are the odds Love is successful enough to get another contract?

If I can pull off a QB deal & draft Bijan I’ll be one of the favorites to win it all. If I give away a ‘24 1st for a brick, I’ll tank my franchise for years.

No pressure.

 

[JoeJoe88]

Value check on Jordan Love in superflex? I'm tempted to throw out a few offers assuming 2nd round value (?).

Picked him up as FA ... Spent $1 BB on him ... feels about right ... all betting on the "potential" since there is no real value yet... and as I had roster space ...
I would not offer a 2nd, but maybe a late 3rd in 1QB league. I would easily move him if offered a 2nd... this yr or next.

Yeah but in SF he's way more valuable, no way would I move him for a 2nd in SF, he's easily worth a 1st IMO.

I agree

Just want to say I really appreciate this entire exchange. In the league I lucked into a 1.01 acquisition, I also need a QB. It would seem better to deal for a QB & draft Bijan, but it’s 16 teams and SF, so a viable QB is tough to come by.

I inquired about Love earlier today, and the owner said he’s interested in moving him. I was struggling a bit to determine value, but from the sound of it, a 2024 1st would not be an unreasonable offer (or an overpay)?

Obviously some risk, but Love has shown ability, and he does have weapons. Also not for nuthin, GB seems like a better franchise to invest in than say, the Texans.

What are the odds that Love starts in ‘23?

What are the odds Love is successful enough to get another contract?

If I can pull off a QB deal & draft Bijan I’ll be one of the favorites to win it all. If I give away a ‘24 1st for a brick, I’ll tank my franchise for years.

No pressure.

I’m not sure how much confidence I have in Love even if Rodgers isn’t there. I mean yeah he’ll be the starter by default, but is he good enough to be the long-term guy? I have my doubts. I’d be hesitant to give up a 1st for him, personally. Maybe a 2025.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’m not sure how much confidence I have in Love even if Rodgers isn’t there. I mean yeah he’ll be the starter by default, but is he good enough to be the long-term guy? I have my doubts. I’d be hesitant to give up a 1st for him, personally. Maybe a 2025.

It’s a tough call.

Dude looked good in his spot duty. Immediate TD drive. Then a FG drive. Then a pick IIRC.

1st round talent they traded up for. Why wouldn’t they give him a year?

I’m not sure if I’d pay a ‘24 1st either. I’ll see what the owner is asking for. I’d pay a ‘24 2nd probably.

I’m also looking to instead pay a little more to get pick 1.02 or preferably 1.03 to roll the dice on whoever is there between Young & Stroud. I’d probably rather do that unless there’s clarity on Love.

 

[JoeJoe88]

I’m not sure how much confidence I have in Love even if Rodgers isn’t there. I mean yeah he’ll be the starter by default, but is he good enough to be the long-term guy? I have my doubts. I’d be hesitant to give up a 1st for him, personally. Maybe a 2025.

It’s a tough call.

Dude looked good in his spot duty. Immediate TD drive. Then a FG drive. Then a pick IIRC.

1st round talent they traded up for. Why wouldn’t they give him a year?

I’m not sure if I’d pay a ‘24 1st either. I’ll see what the owner is asking for. I’d pay a ‘24 2nd probably.

I’m also looking to instead pay a little more to get pick 1.02 or preferably 1.03 to roll the dice on whoever is there between Young & Stroud. I’d probably rather do that unless there’s clarity on Love.

Even not knowing landing spots I’d rather have Stroud or Bryce. And I imagine by the time rookie drafts roll around one or both of them will be a lot more valuable than Love.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’m not sure how much confidence I have in Love even if Rodgers isn’t there. I mean yeah he’ll be the starter by default, but is he good enough to be the long-term guy? I have my doubts. I’d be hesitant to give up a 1st for him, personally. Maybe a 2025.

It’s a tough call.

Dude looked good in his spot duty. Immediate TD drive. Then a FG drive. Then a pick IIRC.

1st round talent they traded up for. Why wouldn’t they give him a year?

I’m not sure if I’d pay a ‘24 1st either. I’ll see what the owner is asking for. I’d pay a ‘24 2nd probably.

I’m also looking to instead pay a little more to get pick 1.02 or preferably 1.03 to roll the dice on whoever is there between Young & Stroud. I’d probably rather do that unless there’s clarity on Love.

Even not knowing landing spots I’d rather have Stroud or Bryce. And I imagine by the time rookie drafts roll around one or both of them will be a lot more valuable than Love.

Same. Bear in mind, some of my post is just thinking through it - I am by no means leaning towards paying a 1st for Jordan Love.

I know he’s available. I’m just talking out whether he’s worth a 1st.

The only way possible is if he’s going to be the starter. It sounds like ARod is gone, he’s almost 40 regardless, and hey, superflex does crazy things to QB value.

Unfortunately I can’t trade with 1.02 or 1.03 yet, but that’s very much my preference.

Since that post I’ve looked at “recent trades” and sure enough, 4 of the last 5 had 1st rounders involved. I believe there was only one 1:1 deal, but it was also for a 1st.

I’d be so much more comfortable throwing a dart with a 2nd.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

I’m not sure how much confidence I have in Love even if Rodgers isn’t there. I mean yeah he’ll be the starter by default, but is he good enough to be the long-term guy? I have my doubts. I’d be hesitant to give up a 1st for him, personally. Maybe a 2025.

It’s a tough call.

Dude looked good in his spot duty. Immediate TD drive. Then a FG drive. Then a pick IIRC.

1st round talent they traded up for. Why wouldn’t they give him a year?

I’m not sure if I’d pay a ‘24 1st either. I’ll see what the owner is asking for. I’d pay a ‘24 2nd probably.

I’m also looking to instead pay a little more to get pick 1.02 or preferably 1.03 to roll the dice on whoever is there between Young & Stroud. I’d probably rather do that unless there’s clarity on Love.

Even not knowing landing spots I’d rather have Stroud or Bryce. And I imagine by the time rookie drafts roll around one or both of them will be a lot more valuable than Love.

Same. Bear in mind, some of my post is just thinking through it - I am by no means leaning towards paying a 1st for Jordan Love.

I know he’s available. I’m just talking out whether he’s worth a 1st.

The only way possible is if he’s going to be the starter. It sounds like ARod is gone, he’s almost 40 regardless, and hey, superflex does crazy things to QB value.

Unfortunately I can’t trade with 1.02 or 1.03 yet, but that’s very much my preference.

Since that post I’ve looked at “recent trades” and sure enough, 4 of the last 5 had 1st rounders involved. I believe there was only one 1:1 deal, but it was also for a 1st.

I’d be so much more comfortable throwing a dart with a 2nd.

I think he passes the eye test, just like Rodgers did during his years on the bench. Love is a specimen. Good size, cannon for an arm. And you're right, he's played pretty well in spot duty. All that said, I'm not sure he's worth a 1st rounder, even one next season. Based on the discussion in this thread, my first offer would likely be a mid to high second this season. As a starting point, I think that's pretty fair given the risks and possible rewards.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think he passes the eye test, just like Rodgers did during his years on the bench. Love is a specimen. Good size, cannon for an arm. And you're right, he's played pretty well in spot duty. All that said, I'm not sure he's worth a 1st rounder, even one next season. Based on the discussion in this thread, my first offer would likely be a mid to high second this season. As a starting point, I think that's pretty fair given the risks and possible rewards.

Agreed. Unfortunately all I have is a 2024 2nd, which of course is less valuable than a 223 2nd.

Still waiting to hear back from the owner owner to see how he values Love. I always like to put the question to the prospective trade partner to avoid coming out the gate with an overpay.

 

[JohnnyU]

Value check on Jordan Love in superflex? I'm tempted to throw out a few offers assuming 2nd round value (?).

Picked him up as FA ... Spent $1 BB on him ... feels about right ... all betting on the "potential" since there is no real value yet... and as I had roster space ...
I would not offer a 2nd, but maybe a late 3rd in 1QB league. I would easily move him if offered a 2nd... this yr or next.

Yeah but in SF he's way more valuable, no way would I move him for a 2nd in SF, he's easily worth a 1st IMO.

I agree

Just want to say I really appreciate this entire exchange. In the league I lucked into a 1.01 acquisition, I also need a QB. It would seem better to deal for a QB & draft Bijan, but it’s 16 teams and SF, so a viable QB is tough to come by.

I inquired about Love earlier today, and the owner said he’s interested in moving him. I was struggling a bit to determine value, but from the sound of it, a 2024 1st would not be an unreasonable offer (or an overpay)?

Obviously some risk, but Love has shown ability, and he does have weapons. Also not for nuthin, GB seems like a better franchise to invest in than say, the Texans.

What are the odds that Love starts in ‘23?

What are the odds Love is successful enough to get another contract?

If I can pull off a QB deal & draft Bijan I’ll be one of the favorites to win it all. If I give away a ‘24 1st for a brick, I’ll tank my franchise for years.

No pressure.

At first I wasn't a Love guy, but when he last started I was impressed. I would think a 2024 1st in SF is fair, but the Love owner may not think so.

 

[Magnum83]

What’s CMC’s value? Anyone trade him or for him? Buy , hold or sell?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What’s CMC’s value? Anyone trade him or for him? Buy , hold or sell?

I’m a firm sell on CMC.

QB situation is up in the air, he stayed on the field but wasn’t entirely healthy down the stretch with the calf

Bill Walsh school of football - better a year early than a year late. You may well sell & watch him perform at RB1 levels for another year.

But at some point the bottom is going to fall out. All it takes is a slightly worse calf strain than what he had & good luck selling then.

I feel like his relatively healthy 2022 + being on the Niners and getting that Shanny Shine makes him an ideal sell high.

If I had him i’d be an extracting as much value as possible for him.

 

[TartanLion]

Value check on Jordan Love in superflex? I'm tempted to throw out a few offers assuming 2nd round value (?).

Picked him up as FA ... Spent $1 BB on him ... feels about right ... all betting on the "potential" since there is no real value yet... and as I had roster space ...
I would not offer a 2nd, but maybe a late 3rd in 1QB league. I would easily move him if offered a 2nd... this yr or next.

Yeah but in SF he's way more valuable, no way would I move him for a 2nd in SF, he's easily worth a 1st IMO.

I agree

Just want to say I really appreciate this entire exchange. In the league I lucked into a 1.01 acquisition, I also need a QB. It would seem better to deal for a QB & draft Bijan, but it’s 16 teams and SF, so a viable QB is tough to come by.

I inquired about Love earlier today, and the owner said he’s interested in moving him. I was struggling a bit to determine value, but from the sound of it, a 2024 1st would not be an unreasonable offer (or an overpay)?

Obviously some risk, but Love has shown ability, and he does have weapons. Also not for nuthin, GB seems like a better franchise to invest in than say, the Texans.

What are the odds that Love starts in ‘23?

What are the odds Love is successful enough to get another contract?

If I can pull off a QB deal & draft Bijan I’ll be one of the favorites to win it all. If I give away a ‘24 1st for a brick, I’ll tank my franchise for years.

No pressure.

You aren’t going to tank your franchise based off one 1st round pick. People will spend a 1st rounder on the likes of Richardson and Levis this year, I’d say Love is worth a 1st rounder. Even if he doesn’t start for the Packers there is then a very high chance he demands a trade and gets a start for another team. I quite like taking the chance as he has the physical side, and has bided his time learning at a decent franchise

 

[Lehigh98]

Just posted this in the Bijan thread...
"He's now going RB1 and in the first round of some SF startup mocks.
He could run for 2,000 yards and cure cancer while doing it and I can't see how his value could get much higher.
At this point, I feel like if you can get that kind of value for him it's a mistake not to trade him / the 1.01 pick.
(But, as usual, I'll probably get excited by the hype, hold him, and regret it later)"

In a "buy low, sell high" approach to team building, his value really can't get any higher.
But I get caught up in the hype (like trading for Pitts in a 2-pt TEP last year) and can't help myself.
How do you guys keep from getting attached / caught up in the hype in evaluating these decisions?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Just posted this in the Bijan thread...
"He's now going RB1 and in the first round of some SF startup mocks.
He could run for 2,000 yards and cure cancer while doing it and I can't see how his value could get much higher.
At this point, I feel like if you can get that kind of value for him it's a mistake not to trade him / the 1.01 pick.
(But, as usual, I'll probably get excited by the hype, hold him, and regret it later)"

I actually think Bijan’s/1.01 value could get even higher. While I believe his value won’t change on a bad team, once we know his landing spot it could jump a little.

Example: Dallas doesn’t franchise Pollard, lets Zeke loose. How’s Bijan’s value then?

Just knowing he’s going to a competent franchise helps. I won’t downgrade Bijan if he goes to a lesser situation. He’s that good of a prospect. Adding a Bijan improves whatever offense he goes to. Or at least should.

Then there’s the Stroud/Young factor. I think there’s a very realistic chance Stroud becomes the 1.01 - he has the size & body of work, and if he shines in the underwear Olympics (and young measures shorter/lighter than we think) it might create separation. If Stroud goes 1.01 in the NFL, it’s not entirely unreasonable to draft him 1.01 in SF ahead of Bijan.

In that case that 1.01 pick has 2 potential player targets, and more teams in your league might be willing to pay for it. Competition breeds value.

In a "buy low, sell high" approach to team building, his value really can't get any higher.
But I get caught up in the hype (like trading for Pitts in a 2-pt TEP last year) and can't help myself.
How do you guys keep from getting attached / caught up in the hype in evaluating these decisions?

I savor the hype. The hype fuels me like caffeine and makes me laser focused on obtaining certain players. It’s how I get from February to August. I want to bottle the hype, attach an IV to it and inject it directly into my veins.

 

[Lehigh98]

I actually think Bijan’s/1.01 value could get even higher.

Who else is he going to jump?...

Round 1​

• 1.01 – Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC)
• 1.02 – Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
• 1.03 – Josh Allen (QB – BUF)
• 1.04 – Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)
• 1.05 – Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)
• 1.06 – Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)
• 1.07 – Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)
• 1.08 – Justin Fields (QB – CHI)
• 1.09 – Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN)
• 1.10 – Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC)
• 1.11 – CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
• 1.12 – Bijan Robinson (RB – FA)

 

[Boston]

Just posted this in the Bijan thread...
"He's now going RB1 and in the first round of some SF startup mocks.
He could run for 2,000 yards and cure cancer while doing it and I can't see how his value could get much higher.
At this point, I feel like if you can get that kind of value for him it's a mistake not to trade him / the 1.01 pick.
(But, as usual, I'll probably get excited by the hype, hold him, and regret it later)"

In a "buy low, sell high" approach to team building, his value really can't get any higher.
But I get caught up in the hype (like trading for Pitts in a 2-pt TEP last year) and can't help myself.
How do you guys keep from getting attached / caught up in the hype in evaluating these decisions?

You remember it is a hobby and go with your heart sometimes...I love FF as much as anyone but sometimes going with the hype can be fun...as is going against the hype...as long as your decision is not hurting your team you can't go wrong...there is nothing wrong with deals/not doing a deal that backfire (we have all had a ton) as long as they made sense at the time.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I actually think Bijan’s/1.01 value could get even higher.

Who else is he going to jump?...

Round 1​

• 1.01 – Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC)
• 1.02 – Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
• 1.03 – Josh Allen (QB – BUF)
• 1.04 – Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)
• 1.05 – Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)
• 1.06 – Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)
• 1.07 – Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)
• 1.08 – Justin Fields (QB – CHI)
• 1.09 – Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN)
• 1.10 – Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC)
• 1.11 – CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
• 1.12 – Bijan Robinson (RB – FA)

In startup? I’m not sure. I’m just thinking in terms of trade value for that 1.01

 

[Lehigh98]

I actually think Bijan’s/1.01 value could get even higher.

Who else is he going to jump?...

Round 1​

• 1.01 – Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC)
• 1.02 – Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
• 1.03 – Josh Allen (QB – BUF)
• 1.04 – Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)
• 1.05 – Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)
• 1.06 – Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)
• 1.07 – Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)
• 1.08 – Justin Fields (QB – CHI)
• 1.09 – Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN)
• 1.10 – Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC)
• 1.11 – CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
• 1.12 – Bijan Robinson (RB – FA)

In startup? I’m not sure. I’m just thinking in terms of trade value for that 1.01

Gotcha, but that was kinda the point of my original question, it really can't get higher (generally speaking, case by case will vary of course)...

He's now going RB1 and in the first round of some SF startup mocks.
He could run for 2,000 yards and cure cancer while doing it and I can't see how his value could get much higher.

 

[ghostguy123]

A rookie RB going round 1 of a superflex startup is pretty remarkable. So in non superflex that would put him at pick 1.03. A rookie, at pick 1.03.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I actually think Bijan’s/1.01 value could get even higher.

Who else is he going to jump?...

Round 1​

• 1.01 – Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC)
• 1.02 – Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
• 1.03 – Josh Allen (QB – BUF)
• 1.04 – Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)
• 1.05 – Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)
• 1.06 – Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)
• 1.07 – Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)
• 1.08 – Justin Fields (QB – CHI)
• 1.09 – Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN)
• 1.10 – Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC)
• 1.11 – CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
• 1.12 – Bijan Robinson (RB – FA)

In startup? I’m not sure. I’m just thinking in terms of trade value for that 1.01

Gotcha, but that was kinda the point of my original question, it really can't get higher (generally speaking, case by case will vary of course)...

He's now going RB1 and in the first round of some SF startup mocks.
He could run for 2,000 yards and cure cancer while doing it and I can't see how his value could get much higher.

I, for one, welcome his cancer curing miracle 2000 yard season, as I may be drafting him in both of my dynasty leagues.

 

[joey]

I’m not shopping the 1.1 in the only league I have it and I haven’t gotten any offers either (not a very active FFPC league though). I made some rebuild trades before last season that got me the 1.1 and knowing there’s a bona fide rookie that everyone agrees is the slam dunk 1.1 , it makes me excited to make that pick and have that kind of player to build my team around for the next 5+ years. You only get a shot at the 1.1 once in a while so I wanna take it and not trade it away. Just more for the fun of the hobby and building my team, and not so much worried about pure value, sell high kid of stuff. This ain’t the stock market for me. It’s fairy tale football where I enjoy getting players I covet

 

[menobrown]

A rookie RB going round 1 of a superflex startup is pretty remarkable. So in non superflex that would put him at pick 1.03. A rookie, at pick 1.03.

I agree with it and historically it's reasonable for an incoming RB of his caliber. I've only been playing dynasty a little over 10 years but and I consider him basically the 4th extremely coveted, first round startup type RB to enter the league in that time, and really got to go back 11 years for one of them.

Barkley and Elliot were two of them and by most measures if you took one of them at 1.3 of a startup I think you'd have done ok. Trent was the other one and obvioiusly a major disappointment but even with him I did a startup after his rookie season and he went 1.3 in that startup.

I don't put Gurley in this group but it was close. But with him having the ACL tear I don't think he was thought as much of a sure thing. I did two startups the year he came out and took him at 2.2 and 2.5, so a little off a first round caliber.

But to me, long story short, I don't see Bijan as 1.3 risky.