ghostguy123
Footballguy
Cool. I disagree. Moving on.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
massraider
Footballguy
Richardson is an interesting test case. If he wins games and scores fantasy points, everyone will need to re-evaluate how they evaluate.
JamboTaylor
Footballguy
Rachaad White value going forward?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I mean, dude is 6’4” 244 and runs a 4.43 40
If he’s a test case I’m not sure what you’re testing. It’s not like there are 30 of him sitting around being overlooked.
I’d say if you replace “Richardson” with “young” it’s a more accurate point. There are plenty of short dudes who never make the NFL as a QB because of the perception that short people got no reason. We learned that from Randy Newman in 1977, and the stigma has never left us.
massraider
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hard to say until we know if they bring someone in via FA.
massraider
Footballguy
Maybe the next guy is 6'2, 220, and runs a 4.55
All I am saying is that Richardson's passing trophy case is empty, if he succeeds in the NFL, teams will be slow to dismiss the next guy who isn't a great passer. There are plenty of athletes at QB, and there will be many more. Not to his level of athlete, but that won't matter. It will still be a great athlete.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s an interesting discussion.
Does the fact that everyone passed on Levis bear any relevance?
To me, it means evaluators see Richardson’s football IQ as high & his passing issues as fixable.
Levis maybe notsomuch.
The Colts HC sure seems to be good at fixing QBs with perceived flaws if Herbert & Hurts are examples.
HW_53
Footballguy
I drafted Trey Lance with the same rational.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
ARich’s body of work > Lance’s body of work, and against a more difficult level of competition.I drafted Trey Lance with the same rational.
And the Niners reportedly haven’t seen the rushing prowess that was expected of Lance. ARich looks like he has that and then some.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Are you writing Lance off?I drafted Trey Lance with the same rational.
Got an interesting offer a few minutes ago. 10 Team PPR 2QB
Give: 2023 1.10
Get: 2024 2nd, 2025 2nd
The interesting part is the team offering the seconds is the worst team in the league. I could easily see the 24’ being the 2.01 and the 25’ could be early as well. Thoughts? If I kept the pick, I’d likely be hoping Kincaid or Levis fell. Fwiw, I also own the 23’ 1.01, 1.03, 1.04, and 1.07. The trade would give me my only 24’ 2nd and would give me four 25’ 2nds.
Give: 2023 1.10
Get: 2024 2nd, 2025 2nd
The interesting part is the team offering the seconds is the worst team in the league. I could easily see the 24’ being the 2.01 and the 25’ could be early as well. Thoughts? If I kept the pick, I’d likely be hoping Kincaid or Levis fell. Fwiw, I also own the 23’ 1.01, 1.03, 1.04, and 1.07. The trade would give me my only 24’ 2nd and would give me four 25’ 2nds.
titusbramble
Footballguy
This seems like it needs a bit of clarity of thinking - if you have the 1, 3 and 4 picks, presumably you are going to be taking Bijan plus two QB's, unless you really, really like Gibbs or JSN - so why would you be hoping that Levis falls given QB is probably no longer a need? He probably does fall, but I'm not sure he's BPA there - Kincaid might be but unless you have a glaring need for a TE (do you have a second where you could take, say, Mayer?) then consider picking up the additional picks down the road
Spookytooth
Footballguy
12 team ppr 1qb (switching to superflex 2025)
What are my dead weight guys or guys I wanna move worth in picks?
Brandon cooks
Laviska Shenault
Ryan tannehill
Malik willis
Zeke
Kamara
Arodge.
Thanks!
What are my dead weight guys or guys I wanna move worth in picks?
Brandon cooks
Laviska Shenault
Ryan tannehill
Malik willis
Zeke
Kamara
Arodge.
Thanks!
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Outside of Kamara and Cooks, I doubt you could give the rest away.
Kamara may get you an early second - but with age and suspension potentially looming that’s not a given.
Cooks may be worth a late second but not sure he really excites anyone at this point.
HW_53
Footballguy
Lance is definitely a hold for me, but, the shine sure has come off his outlook especially in regard to the draft capital dropped on him. Purdy isn't going away, and the Niners have too much invested to just flip him for a 5th. It's QB purgatory.Are you writing Lance off?I drafted Trey Lance with the same rational.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’d say he’s worth about what he was worth before the draft. McKinnon is going to cap his upside, and I still wouldn’t write off the Chiefs adding a free agent running back.
And if Minnesota does indeed cut Dalvin I could see KC making that move.
Even if the Chiefs only resign McKinnon, Pacheco is worth maybe a mid-second? He seems like a 10 to 15 point per game kind of running back. Mid floor, low ceiling. And even if the Chiefs don’t make a big move it running back this year, they could still bring something in mid season or next year.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
I think you could get a late 2nd for Cooks. Maybe if you're lucky there's an owner in your league who will still buy Kamara based on name recognition. If you're really really really lucky someone will toss a late pick for Rodgers.
In all honesty though, I would rather have a pick than any of those players.
Dez
Footballguy
I am in a 16 team IDP 1.5 TE PPR league with 6 pts per TD pass. I have no QB. It is really hard to get one in a 16 team league. My QB was Brady the last 5 years.
So I have been offered Mahomes for 3 1st round picks. I have currently 4 1st round picks. I would either be giving up 7, 9 and my own future 1st or I would give up 9 and 2 future 1st.
I have been trying to figure out how to get a QB and I can't figure out a way to get anyone. The only possible QB's I could try to trade for would be Cousins, Ridder, Garoppolo, Carr, Russ WIlson, Purdy, Goff, Daniel Jones.
Those are the only teams that have 2 QB's everyone else has 1 and garbage backups so they won't be trading their guy.
The Mahomes guy is going all in on a rebuild but refuses to trade Mahomes for anything less than 3 1st rounders.
I do not know if I could get any of those QB's I named above but those are all on teams where the guy has another decent QB so maybe they would part with theirs but it would likely cost something decent as people want to have 2 QB's.
So I have been offered Mahomes for 3 1st round picks. I have currently 4 1st round picks. I would either be giving up 7, 9 and my own future 1st or I would give up 9 and 2 future 1st.
I have been trying to figure out how to get a QB and I can't figure out a way to get anyone. The only possible QB's I could try to trade for would be Cousins, Ridder, Garoppolo, Carr, Russ WIlson, Purdy, Goff, Daniel Jones.
Those are the only teams that have 2 QB's everyone else has 1 and garbage backups so they won't be trading their guy.
The Mahomes guy is going all in on a rebuild but refuses to trade Mahomes for anything less than 3 1st rounders.
I do not know if I could get any of those QB's I named above but those are all on teams where the guy has another decent QB so maybe they would part with theirs but it would likely cost something decent as people want to have 2 QB's.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s not a bargain, but it nets you Mahomes.
I sold Mahomes for the equivalent of 5x 1sts in a 12-team SF.
I realize your team is 1 QB, but 16 teams, having the QB1 set it & forget it is worth 3x 1sts.
The QB landscape is bleak. There are ~9 worth dealing for in dynasty. If you can afford to do it, I would do it.
The only question is whether you can afford it.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
wgoldsph
Footballguy
I've decided that pick 1.4 is the worst value in 1qb leagues this year. Assuming 1-3 is Robinson-Gibbs-JSN the next spot is either an upside swing for Richardson, an uninspiring pick for Addison/Flowers/QJ, one of the many rbs who got drafted into bad situations, or another upside swing for Kincaid despite all the evidence that TEs take years to develop in the NFL.
Even if you really like one of the above mentioned, there's a chance of any of them falling to you at 2.4 and the rest of your league wondering if you're drunk.
Even if you really like one of the above mentioned, there's a chance of any of them falling to you at 2.4 and the rest of your league wondering if you're drunk.
Dez
Footballguy
I can certainly afford it having picks 7, 9 plus 2 future 2024 1st right now in my pocket. It is just if I want to pay up or try and get another low level QB and hope for the best and being able to use my picks for players or other trades.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s possible to hit Mahomes upside.
It’s just unlikely. And the one that could do it also is the riskiest.
massraider
Footballguy
I would do that deal for Mahomes for sure, but to this point, it feels like there's a lot of QBs on the horizon. There's a lot of names people really like.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Felt like this 2 years ago when Lance, Mac Jones, Fields, TLaw, Zach Wilson were drafted as well.
Not exactly working out that way though.
massraider
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s the much better question - could you obtain a TLaw for significantly less?
If so, do that.
massraider
Footballguy
What I am thinking is that if his team is good enough to get in playoffs with Lawrence, it can win a title with Mahomes. If you SET everywhere else, yeah make the trade
But if Mahomes just makes his team a 5 seed, then maybe keep the picks, and make a move somewhere else for a QB. 16 team leagues, talent gets gone quick. 3 1st rounders can also be turned into 6 2nd rounders, etc.
Dez
Footballguy
I am destined for a fall someday but somehow in a 16 team league I have managed 6 straight years of being the #1 seed and won the championship 3 times including last year.
In the 2014 startup I did the punt year 1 by collecting all young players and keeping on the taxi and got the #1 pick took Gurley then year 2 I tried to win but started 0-4 and left Gurley and some others on my taxi punted year 2 and got #1 pick and Zeke for it. Year 3 I was a wildcard team and lost in the championship by 1.5 pts. From 2017-2022 I was the #1 seed 6 teams winning 3 titles as I said before.
All that said it will fall off someday. That day may be soon if I don't get a QB.
Dez
Footballguy
Zero chance I get Lawrence. His other option is Trey Lance. It is really hard to trade for a good QB in a 16 team league you have to find either a guy wanting to tank like I have with Mahomes owner or find a guy who has 2 top 8 QB's and that is like not often.
In my non IDP other 16 team league someone happened to have both Josh Allen and Lawrence so he sold Allen for 1.09 and Kirk but Allen had 1 year deal left but still sold low as he could have franchised Allen next year and people could have closed bid much more knowing they get him on open contract.
Also after the Fields owner acquired Allen and paid $45 to increase his contract to 4 years he traded away Fields for 1.12.
Those were the trades I needed in the league I have no QB (of course in that 16 teamer I only have Lance, Purdy and Brady yet somehow I won that championship as well my first in the 11 year history of the league)
Dez
Footballguy
Yep and I traded my 1.15 and 2.11 in my 16 teamer in another league to move up to 1.11 to get Lance. Meanwhile Fields went 1.15 and St Brown 2.11 and I would have picked them both if I had stayed pat assuming Lance went top 14.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
I’d argue we don’t know whether he’s a good passer or not yet. Kid isn’t even 21 and is about to get his first real coaching. He’s hardly played and definitely a project, but he’s in Superman’s body. I will spin the wheel on those odds.
And Bryce Young, who I really, really like…what’s his upside if he doesn’t run? You have to hit Mahomes/Burrow level passer if you don’t add rushing stats to be a top fantasy option. That’s asking a lot with the weapons he has to work with. I’m not even worried about his size, think the game is changing and he plays with special anticipation and touch. It’s just such a big ask when throwing to Mingo and Theilan. Definitely valuable in superflex, no doubt, but I’d rather gamble on ARich. And if he’s a bust, you’ll probably earn more early picks to use on QB again down the road.
massraider
Footballguy
If you put names to those players, it's interesting. Would you trade Zach Charbonnet, Bryce Young, and a 1 next year for Mahomes?
I probably would.
I probably would.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Ding ding.
I’m on the Mahomes side of this discussion, considering the strength of the team. And I’d bite the bullet now and trade 7 & 9 rather than both future 1sts.
10 years from now you’ll still have Mahomes.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
You know, more I think about this, I would *absolutely* get Mahomes. You could always flip him down the road for a lower value QB that you like plus extra assets. Or you could just enjoy having the baby goat. Either way, I love players that provide insulated value and Mahomes is as safe as it gets.
Yeah, that’s a deal I’m making right now.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
dipandglide
Footballguy
I agree. It's hard to get excited with how little he's played the first two years. The good news is that he sat the first year and got injured in year two. We still don't know what he is. I'm buying in Superflex if others are selling (late 1st-early second value)Lance is definitely a hold for me, but, the shine sure has come off his outlook especially in regard to the draft capital dropped on him. Purdy isn't going away, and the Niners have too much invested to just flip him for a 5th. It's QB purgatory.Are you writing Lance off?I drafted Trey Lance with the same rational.
My gut feeling is Lance gets the keys to 2023. Purdy played well, but he ain't the guy that's taking the 49ers to the top.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
I wouldn't give you my Mahomes for the 7 - 9 - 24 1st in a 14 teamer to be honest.
There are drafts where I would have, this isn't one of them.
There are drafts where I would have, this isn't one of them.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Here's a bit of a counterpoint to the Mahomes trade idea:
If you're not a contender this year, I'd consider trying to get a guy like Carr for one of those firsts and Purdy for maybe a 2nd? Carr will see you through the next few years as a solid, not great QB. He's rarely hurt and will likely give you top 10-12 QB numbers. Purdy looked exceptional last season. His decision making was off the charts good. Keep your 2024 1sts on the chance that you can snag a Caleb Williams or Drake Maye next year.
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
Yeah, I am thinking about going after T Law in my league. In the middle of Fields rookie year I traded Fields, Rhamondre and a second for Josh Allen. Won me a 2nd place that year and a Championship this last year. Thinking of making the move to trade Allen for T Law plus a little bit to really position my squad for the future. Tough call to make though......
Edit to add: Thought about trying to get Fields back but I am looking to get away from the QBs that rely too much on running for points.
Birdie048
Footballguy
I support this plan. Use "minimal capital" now to gain a Top 12 QB while holding 2024 for an elite QB (projected).
Carr in now in NOS would be a good target.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Well, looking at some recent Post-NFL Draft Mocks are still a bit scattered. (I am referencing 1QB PPR considerations)
After 1.01 Bijan & 1.02-1.03 Gibbs, Running Backs are confusing and almost random perspective.
Sea Zach Charbonnet - Good Draft capital & RB size but sharing with KW3 is a rough intro to NFL. Pete said "competition" to start so hard to gauge his slot
NOS Kendre Miller - Kamara & Jamaal situations offer opportunity but marginal capital
Mia Devon Achane - good landing spot but small speedy back, crowded backfield for 1 year
Jax Tank Bigsby - clear RBBC situation on rising Jax offense
Draft Range / Average (comments)
Zach Charbonnet: 1.06 to 2.01 / 1.09 (or if Handcuff to KW3 higher might be required)
Kendre Miller: 1.08 to 2.03 / 1.11 (Kamara suspension influential to value in 2023)
Devon Achane: 1.06 to 2.10 / 2.04 (speed & space utility in Miami gives diverse value)
Tank Bigsby: 1.11 to 3.02 / 2.07 (potential GL value)
Self-serving idea here is that I have 1.07 & 1.08 picks... rebuild and need a RB1 option for 2024 and beyond
After 1.01 Bijan & 1.02-1.03 Gibbs, Running Backs are confusing and almost random perspective.
Sea Zach Charbonnet - Good Draft capital & RB size but sharing with KW3 is a rough intro to NFL. Pete said "competition" to start so hard to gauge his slot
NOS Kendre Miller - Kamara & Jamaal situations offer opportunity but marginal capital
Mia Devon Achane - good landing spot but small speedy back, crowded backfield for 1 year
Jax Tank Bigsby - clear RBBC situation on rising Jax offense
Draft Range / Average (comments)
Zach Charbonnet: 1.06 to 2.01 / 1.09 (or if Handcuff to KW3 higher might be required)
Kendre Miller: 1.08 to 2.03 / 1.11 (Kamara suspension influential to value in 2023)
Devon Achane: 1.06 to 2.10 / 2.04 (speed & space utility in Miami gives diverse value)
Tank Bigsby: 1.11 to 3.02 / 2.07 (potential GL value)
Self-serving idea here is that I have 1.07 & 1.08 picks... rebuild and need a RB1 option for 2024 and beyond
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Ya'll ignored my initial post (pay attention to me) but this is exactly what I mean when I say pick 1.4 is the worst value in this draft.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I dunno - I have Anthony Richardson pretty well locked in after Bijan, Gibbs, & JSN in 1 QB leagues. The floor/upside for his projected rushing at the position is too great to ignore.
Birdie048
Footballguy
I agree that the variable of rankings after Top 3 (Bijan, Gibbs, JSN), is a complete random luck / Magic 8 Ball logic / blind WAG.
What tools can we use that help differentiate the RB3-8 spots?
Draft Capital? Well, Charbs kills that
RAS score? Well, Cinn Chase Brown 5th round pick is projected 3.04 draft slot
Situation? Aside from Bijan, who is looking at the best landing spot? Roschon Johnson Chi? Draft slot 3.03 range
I don't see an easy way to separate them. This is the curse of the 2023 Draft Class. WR & TE are both in a similar situations ... separating value from the sparse distinctions.
