Blick
Footballguy
I think it would take a top 5 2025 pick to make me think about it. The only reason to move him is to get younger and it would have to be for a very sure player.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
rockaction
Footballguy
Yep. Makes total sense. Can’t argue with that logic, really.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
The narrative on 2026 picks is pretty bad as well. Widely regarded as a class with very minimal blue chip potential players in it.
rockaction
Footballguy
I liked this for the info but had to change the reaction given what’s being said. Bummer.
Blick
Footballguy
I kind of take this with a grain of salt. A lot changes in a year, and I feel like we've heard this many times over the years.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Of course. But that is the narrative currently, which could affect how the picks in that particular year are viewed. That was the point I was trying to make, not that it was necessarily accurate.
Someone clued up might prefer 27 picks to 26 for example, to have a shot at Jeremiah Smith, Ryan Williams etc.
BespokeJort
Footballguy
If I can get Kamara for a 3rd as a projected contender I smash accept fwiw. That’s a very cheap gamble he’s got another year or two left and at that price I’m fine if it doesn’t pay.
Was thinking about making a run at Bucky. KTC says a late first and late 2nd is a slight overpay—I can’t imagine getting him for less than that but curious what others here think
efactor
Footballguy
Terry McLaurin price check:
Have him in one league and while his 13 TDs gave him value, I'm concerned about that number dropping as well as Washington either adding a FA like Higgins or using their 1st rounder to go WR. Seems like a good time to sell while his value is high. Plus, while I love Daniels, I just don't seem him as someone who will throw for 4500 yards consistently. Would you be selling Terry for a 1st in the 8-12 range? My team is competing currently and have a strong WR base.
Have him in one league and while his 13 TDs gave him value, I'm concerned about that number dropping as well as Washington either adding a FA like Higgins or using their 1st rounder to go WR. Seems like a good time to sell while his value is high. Plus, while I love Daniels, I just don't seem him as someone who will throw for 4500 yards consistently. Would you be selling Terry for a 1st in the 8-12 range? My team is competing currently and have a strong WR base.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
If in win now mode no I do not sell Terry for that. If rebuilding sure
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oof.
JT is electric. Colts need to figure out if ARich is the guy - which they’re apparently committed to doing.
JT has shown he can score from anywhere on the field.
Barkley is a super stud in a great offense but you’re getting 2 years older.
Tough call.
personally if I am trading to rebuild, I’m always going to target 2 years out.
Teams are more likely to move future 1sts when they’re that far out, and there are likely to be more break out players that emerge in the interim.
2025 is expected to be a meh draft class, but I’d be ok dealing for 2026 picks. I just don’t think we know enough yet to know if it will be a bad class.
BespokeJort
Footballguy
I like this strategy but as a contender I am much more apt to trade picks in closer, as it’s usually less certain I’ll still be a contender the following year
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’ve found managers are more reluctant to deal picks from the following year, but a couple years out are valued less.
E.g. most folks value a 2026 1st like a 2025 2nd.
And if I’m rebuilding I don’t mind waiting anyway.
But yeah, I’m sure there are exceptions.
BespokeJort
Footballguy
Personally I will trade a 2025 2nd for a 2026 1st anytime but I rarely find takers unless it’s like, mid-draft and someone unexpected fell to 2.01 type situation
My league requiring dues payment to trade a 1st 2 years out but not for the upcoming draft may also be a factor
efactor
Footballguy
Bo Nix:
I think he is way undervalued in dynasty. Currently #12 at both FBG and Fantasy Pro's. Below are the Fantasy Pro's rankings. They have him in tier 3, but I would put him in tier 2, right behind Burrow. After a slow start to the season (5 TDs in the first 7 games), he threw 24 TDs in the last 10 games. This while having Courtland Sutton as his only established target. Assuming they add another WR in FA or the draft or that Vele, Mims or Franklin develop, along with having Sean Payton as his coach, seems the sky is the limit. Oh yeah, he can run too. What am I missing? No way I would rather have Love, Stroud, Herbert (in a Harbaugh offense), Caleb or Murray over Nix. Would probably prefer him over Mahomes for FF as well.
1) Josh Allen
2) Lamar Jackson
3) Jayden Daniels
4) Jalen Hurts
5) Joe Burrow
6) Patrick Mahomes
7) Jordan Love
8) CJ Stroud
9) Justin Herbert
10) Caleb Williams
11) Kyler Murray
12) Bo Nix
Coming in, there were big concerns about him being a check down artist, but he seems to throw a pretty nice deep ball, so that worry seems to have disappeared. Seems like a good time to be buying.
I think he is way undervalued in dynasty. Currently #12 at both FBG and Fantasy Pro's. Below are the Fantasy Pro's rankings. They have him in tier 3, but I would put him in tier 2, right behind Burrow. After a slow start to the season (5 TDs in the first 7 games), he threw 24 TDs in the last 10 games. This while having Courtland Sutton as his only established target. Assuming they add another WR in FA or the draft or that Vele, Mims or Franklin develop, along with having Sean Payton as his coach, seems the sky is the limit. Oh yeah, he can run too. What am I missing? No way I would rather have Love, Stroud, Herbert (in a Harbaugh offense), Caleb or Murray over Nix. Would probably prefer him over Mahomes for FF as well.
1) Josh Allen
2) Lamar Jackson
3) Jayden Daniels
4) Jalen Hurts
5) Joe Burrow
6) Patrick Mahomes
7) Jordan Love
8) CJ Stroud
9) Justin Herbert
10) Caleb Williams
11) Kyler Murray
12) Bo Nix
Coming in, there were big concerns about him being a check down artist, but he seems to throw a pretty nice deep ball, so that worry seems to have disappeared. Seems like a good time to be buying.
joey
Footballguy
Not saying I’d take him over Mahommes, but I’m loving what Nix did this year and I think the sky’s the limit with this kid.
I have Nix, Herbert and Maye in the same 1QB league, and looking to sell Maye for whatever I can get back so I only keep 2 of them.
efactor
Footballguy
Love the talent both as a runner and a receiver and I I view him as a top 3 RB along with Bijan and Gibbs. But obviously his situation in NY isn't great with all the dysfunction. Hopefully the Jets set him free this offseason, but if not, could be more of the same next year.
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I definitely take him over Kyler but those other guys are tougher sells but I can see the argument.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
I have Breece in the 3rd tier of RBs below Kyren/Bucky. If he's not traded, I'd expect Braelon Allen to take even more carries in 2025.
titusbramble
Footballguy
Held both until earlier in the season, it's Puka
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Braelon Allen was not good this season. Breece neither but Allen was really inefficient with his carries.
I was offered MHJ and Brooks yesterday for Breece/Braelon.
Did not think it was a horrible offer but passed, won't be shocked if I regret it later.
For better or worse Breece was really the same guy last year as the season before. Really biggest difference was he got around one target per game less. I'm not sure if that's a case for or against him, just pointing out he did not really regress as a player. I think people think he was worse then he performed because expectations were higher a year after ACL as well some other things like improved OL and Rodgers(which I thought would be a negative as it would impact his work in the passing game).
I still think he's got a higher level of performance in him and he's only going to be 24 next season. Harder to put his value versus other players but I actually have him ranked the same among RB's for dynasty as I did before the season started, which is third, after Bijan and Gibbs. Difference is it's fair to say he's now a tier behind them. What they do at OC/HC might alter my opinion on him.
joey
Footballguy
Chargers RB situation next year: Dobbins was on a 1 year deal, right? Wondering if Vidal (who I hold in a couple of leagues) will have any keeper value heading into next year. (I have him in 1FFPC dynasty league which is only Keep 14 skill players, and cut down is end of March, so thinking if he’s worth trying to fit into my keepers or if he’s simply droppable at this point, or if I try to trade him to the Dobbins owner if he’d even care).
Similar question for the Steelers RB position. Thoughts on that? Harris most likely gone as a free agent, right? Did Warren do enough to get a shot at the starting gig? Or do they start fresh with new RBs across the board? What’s Warren’s contract situation?
Homer and non-homer opinions welcome!
Similar question for the Steelers RB position. Thoughts on that? Harris most likely gone as a free agent, right? Did Warren do enough to get a shot at the starting gig? Or do they start fresh with new RBs across the board? What’s Warren’s contract situation?
Homer and non-homer opinions welcome!
zamboni
Footballguy
I also grabbed Vidal at the end of the season thinking that maybe he'd have some value with Dobbins perhaps gone and Gus almost certainly gone. Problem is that Vidal didn't seem to do much with his opportunity when Dobbins and/or Gus were out. His very first NFL touch was that wheel route TD, but that was really the extent of his highlights. Not sure if Harbaugh was taking it easy on the rookie, or just didn't think highly of him, but in either case I don't see how the Chargers don't draft one of the many good RBs coming out in the rookie draft. Even if it's like a 4th or 5th round pick, I think that guy could bury Vidal on the depth chart pretty quickly.
Weak FA RB class combined with deep RB draft class=things won't be very clear for a lot of RB backfield by end of March.Chargers RB situation next year: Dobbins was on a 1 year deal, right? Wondering if Vidal (who I hold in a couple of leagues) will have any keeper value heading into next year. (I have him in 1FFPC dynasty league which is only Keep 14 skill players, and cut down is end of March, so thinking if he’s worth trying to fit into my keepers or if he’s simply droppable at this point, or if I try to trade him to the Dobbins owner if he’d even care).
Similar question for the Steelers RB position. Thoughts on that? Harris most likely gone as a free agent, right? Did Warren do enough to get a shot at the starting gig? Or do they start fresh with new RBs across the board? What’s Warren’s contract situation?
Homer and non-homer opinions welcome!
If Dobbins is gone and Chargers have not signed anyone of major consequence by March 31st then try hard to deal Vidal. If no takers, cut him and move on. Did not really show much, low draft capital. No real reason to think he'd have a leg up on anyone they drafted.
Warren is a RFA, they'll keep him. Najee returning would be a surprise. I've seen no indication he'd have a major uptick in his role. He was already close to equal with Najee in snaps in their games played together, 499 to 472 I believe. Similar to Vidal if he's looking like the top guy with no comp after FA then try and hard to take advantage of that in a trade before the draft. But if not he's a hold. I'd probably forecast him as a solid RB3 type next season but maybe getting paired with a less durable RB will give him a "league winning" type role in at least some games. For sure think in the right situatin he could take a post-Gordon leap like Ekeler. This is not that situation. Despite turning 28 midway through 2026 when he is likely a UFA, he could land in a spot that gives him some really strong value for a few years or so. I think a good window to shop him between end of most of FA and the draft will present itself but if the right deal is not there just hold. Enjoy the RB depth he offers next season, hope for a homerun in 2026 UFA.
joey
Footballguy
Thanks for the detailed reply. Great stuff and very helpful to help me get my thoughts and plan together as we rocket towards FFPC March 31st cut downs.Weak FA RB class combined with deep RB draft class=things won't be very clear for a lot of RB backfield by end of March.Chargers RB situation next year: Dobbins was on a 1 year deal, right? Wondering if Vidal (who I hold in a couple of leagues) will have any keeper value heading into next year. (I have him in 1FFPC dynasty league which is only Keep 14 skill players, and cut down is end of March, so thinking if he’s worth trying to fit into my keepers or if he’s simply droppable at this point, or if I try to trade him to the Dobbins owner if he’d even care).
Similar question for the Steelers RB position. Thoughts on that? Harris most likely gone as a free agent, right? Did Warren do enough to get a shot at the starting gig? Or do they start fresh with new RBs across the board? What’s Warren’s contract situation?
Homer and non-homer opinions welcome!
If Dobbins is gone and Chargers have not signed anyone of major consequence by March 31st then try hard to deal Vidal. If no takers, cut him and move on. Did not really show much, low draft capital. No real reason to think he'd have a leg up on anyone they drafted.
Warren is a RFA, they'll keep him. Najee returning would be a surprise. I've seen no indication he'd have a major uptick in his role. He was already close to equal with Najee in snaps in their games played together, 499 to 472 I believe. Similar to Vidal if he's looking like the top guy with no comp after FA then try and hard to take advantage of that in a trade before the draft. But if not he's a hold. I'd probably forecast him as a solid RB3 type next season but maybe getting paired with a less durable RB will give him a "league winning" type role in at least some games. For sure think in the right situatin he could take a post-Gordon leap like Ekeler. This is not that situation. Despite turning 28 midway through 2026 when he is likely a UFA, he could land in a spot that gives him some really strong value for a few years or so. I think a good window to shop him between end of most of FA and the draft will present itself but if the right deal is not there just hold. Enjoy the RB depth he offers next season, hope for a homerun in 2026 UFA.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
Nico Collins price check
I was offered the 1.03 and Jeudy for my Collins and 4.02
It was a quick no for me as Jeudy would be a borderline cut(14 keepers FFPC rules) and I don’t have a positive view of him. My opponent seems to think this was a great offer and is wanting a counter. I am like “no thanks, I don’t have Nico on the block but everyone is available for the right price”. I could always send a ridiculous counter, but that’s not how I role when it comes to trading. I like to send offers that aren’t insulting, there is/should be some respect when it comes to sending offers. I would never want to be “that guy”.
Where is the SP on Collins trade value?
I was offered the 1.03 and Jeudy for my Collins and 4.02
It was a quick no for me as Jeudy would be a borderline cut(14 keepers FFPC rules) and I don’t have a positive view of him. My opponent seems to think this was a great offer and is wanting a counter. I am like “no thanks, I don’t have Nico on the block but everyone is available for the right price”. I could always send a ridiculous counter, but that’s not how I role when it comes to trading. I like to send offers that aren’t insulting, there is/should be some respect when it comes to sending offers. I would never want to be “that guy”.
Where is the SP on Collins trade value?
rockaction
Footballguy
KTC has him as equivalent to the 1.02. So does FBG dynasty value. You need to add very little, KTC thinks, to get the 1.01. FBG has something more significant in mind for the 1.01. The guy probably thought you would have seen what Jeudy did with Winston and would be amenable to 1.03 plus a good player.
I don't think that's enough, but it's not insulting. Nico has soft tissue issues that might be a problem moving forward. I roster Nico in one league and really like him, too, but you weren't being offered something unreasonable.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
I wasn’t insulted at all, I just don’t usually counter when I feel we’re not that close. I would need a fair bit better than Jeudy, trade charts be damned!
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, I re-read your post and maybe you guys just have differing opinions on trade etiquette. It really sounds like you're not really looking to move him, and I think it's fine to say that, actually. Say something like, "I'd need a godfather offer." That usually should suffice.
eta* You probably don't need me to tell you that. The crux of it is Jeudy and the 1.03 wouldn't be enough for me, either.
That's a good offer, but I feel very different way about Jeudy then you. Even being lower on him you must have some serious first world problems to be considering him a cut since he'd essentially be taking Nico's spot.
HIndery on this site puts Nico's value pretty close to the 1.3. I think that's to low.
What I might suggest if you are open to moving Nico and your roster space seems tight, is offering Nico for 1.3 and his 2026#1. If his team looks so bad that 2026 looks likely to be a lottery pick then maybe throwing in your likely projected late 2026 second evens it out if you think asking for his first next year is to much. This would free up a roster spot, at least a precut down roster spot and net you a good return. That's the kind of thing I'd be looking at if I was open to moving Nico and my roster was deep.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
I appreciate that, I feel like many drafters will be chasing on Jeudy next year and he won’t be on many of my rosters. But, I’ve been wrong so many times in the past, it’s good to hear some opposing views.
My roster is ok, I barely missed the playoffs and just missed getting the 1.01. RB is my weakness, so I do like the idea of getting 1.02 and 1.03 to continue this rebuild from an orphan I bought a few years ago.
Yeah, I agree with this. Although it's very early, in 1 QB FFPC, it sounds like 1.03 will be either Tet McMillan or the rookie RB3. There's just no way I give up Nico for that, even with Jeudy thrown in. (I do like Jeudy, but unless the Browns bring in someone like Cousins, Darnold or Russ Wilson, it's too hard to bank on him.)
Born to Run
Footballguy
Comes down to if you think the NE staff can build around him. I own him in one league and hope NE can draft a WR1. If you look at NE's 2024 draft they hit on Maye, but after that
joey
Footballguy
Holding Reed in 2 leagues…only cuz I can’t be bothered to try to figure out a deal that’s worth researching and offering.
ETA: I guess the simplest way to handle this value vagueness is simply put your GB WRs on the block and see what comes in.
sheerterror
Footballguy
I own Doubs in 2 leagues, sold Reed mid season in another. I think I'd pay a 2nd to get Reed back. A lesser second for Watson? Not sure I'd be buying Doubs or Wicks anywhere and will probably try to get a 3rd or 4th for Doubs this offseason.
Kraft is the real prize but Wicks is a really nice buy low.
Staying away from Watson and Doubs for now over serious health concerns and Reeds always been a little expensive for a player who rarely plays in 2 WR sets. I for sure like Reed more than Wicks, just would rather pay what Wicks cost.
That would’ve been a quick no for me as well.
mjb03003
Footballguy
Thoughts on Justin Fields? He's always been polarizing for fantasy and real life, but he looks like he could be a huge value to me in Superflex leagues based on the likelihood that he's starting somewhere (Pittsburgh?) in 2025 and is still young enough (turns 26 this March) to give us several good years as a starter.
In the 6 games he started this year he went 4-2 (real life, #QBwins), and finished as the QB19, QB24, QB12, QB1, QB16, and QB7... not spectacular, but solid QB2 with obvious upside. He had 5 passing TDs against only 1 INT to go with 231 rush yards (~40/game) and 5 rushing TDs.
What are people buying or selling for?
In the 6 games he started this year he went 4-2 (real life, #QBwins), and finished as the QB19, QB24, QB12, QB1, QB16, and QB7... not spectacular, but solid QB2 with obvious upside. He had 5 passing TDs against only 1 INT to go with 231 rush yards (~40/game) and 5 rushing TDs.
What are people buying or selling for?
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
I think Fields is a hold until we know his landing spot. I'm not 100% sure he'll be a Steeler next year.
ETA - didn't answer your question. I think Fields is likely worth a mid 2025 2nd rounder. I'm not sure I'd sell him for that, though.
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joey
Footballguy
you know someone has to ask: Superflex or 1QB?
Tau837
Footballguy
Good point. Superflex.
joey
Footballguy
Feels like a QB15-20 level, kind of level with vets like Mayfield, Trevor Lawrence. But obviously below all the rookie QBs except McCarthy who he seems even with depending on preference.
But compared to RBs and WRs…maybe in the mid RB2 area.
I’m just making this all up. I’ve only played superflex dynasty for 1 season
A person in our 15 team SF/TEP/IDP league made a controversial trade at the deadline of giving Nabers and McKinney for Penix/3 mid 2nd rounders and Diablo. QBs are 9 of the top 10 scorers and love the trade today with QB importance. That owner not ready to compete yet but I don’t think they trade Penix for Mayfield/Purdy/Murray/Lawrence etc. Future looks bright with nice weapons abound. Those 3 2nds look very good today as most in league wanting to get in. See what it brings by draft time. I think would take more than 1.1 to get for sure but rules matter
I own McCarthy who I don’t need but would take something special to get him from me. I only see his value rising and my team as defending champ has no other real needs. One trade discussed was 1.2/1.4 for QB and 2 2nds(one early/one late) before they traded for Caleb Williams instead. Great trade consider I think Ward/Sanders well behind last years big 6.: And not sure I take trade unless Jeanty Is available at 2. Other than that no way today.
mjb03003
Footballguy
Feels like a QB15-20 level, kind of level with vets like Mayfield, Trevor Lawrence. But obviously below all the rookie QBs except McCarthy who he seems even with depending on preference.
But compared to RBs and WRs…maybe in the mid RB2 area.
I’m just making this all up. I’ve only played superflex dynasty for 1 season
I know last year in rookie drafts McCarthy was going higher than Penix and had a lot more buzz around him. Penix was knocked down boards because he appeared to be blocked for at least 1 full, if not 2 full years by Kirk Cousins. THere certainly wasn't anything wrong with Penix's draft capital or college resume. Penix was the older, more experience, more "pro-ready" of the two, but it appeared that McCarthy would have an easier path to a starting role, and he had the youth/untapped upside angle going for him, and that pushed him up in rookie drafts. Knowing what we know now (Penix going into year 2 the unquestioned starter and showing pretty well in his 3 starts to close out the season vs. McCarthy missng his entire rookie year, and all the development he would have gotten even as a backup holding a clipboard, and uncertainty around what the Vikings do with Darnold) I don't see how McCarthy can be valued equally to Penix.
Give me Penix over McCarthy all day, and that's even if the Vikings clear the path for McCarthy to be the unquestioned starter going into 2025.
To answer the OP - I think Penix should be valued as a high-end QB2. He's the Falcons franchise QB now, and he has good young weapons in Bijan and London who he has already showed a good connection with.
I agree, except I think McCarthy holds a lot more value.
mjb03003
Footballguy
Interesting. I could see prefering McCarthy at cost, but for McCarthy to hold "a lot more value," the market would have to be seriously mispricing one or both. Either Penix is suddenly overvalued (QB18 on Hindery's latest dynasty superflex trade value chart, QB16 on KTC) or McCarthy is severely undervalued (QB23 on the trade value chart, QB18 on KTC). Even if McCarthy was named the starter in Minnesota tomorrow, I would expect him to be valued about equal, to maybe JUST ahead of Penix. I'd have a hard time supplanting anyone in that top 15-16 based on McCarthy's body of work.
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