Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (3 Viewers)

[pinkstapler]

Errr, isn't KTC the opposite of that? It's the only calculator (or at least the original, if others have started copying it) that adds a penalty to the side with more parts, specifically to avoid just adding up pennies for a dollar.

Granted, it's not perfect as that is something that's very difficult to account for algorithmically, but you can't just add up four random 2nds to get Jamaar Chase like you can on most calcs. Eventually if you add enough crazy stuff you'll probably get there, but every time you add an additional piece it applies a penalty to try and account for that.

Not sure about that - Dynasty Dominator also does that. It also accounts for gaining roster spots, which KTC doesn’t.

I do know that KTC weighs draft picks absurdly heavily compared to other calcs. Especially future picks. for that reason I don’t typically trust it with anything involving picks + players.

A fun experiment is plugging in pick 1.01, then plugging in Jeanty by name and getting 2 different values.

The pick is more valuable, 8,049 to 7,815

Solid point. The one thing I think might weigh a bit into that discrepancy is that a pick may always hold a slightly higher value than the player (even when 99.5% of the community would accredit that exact pick to that exact player) is just that the pick is still more fungible. A pick can be anything, it can even be a boat! Lol. But back to your point; what should that value difference really be and is KTC capturing that correctly or still over valuing it? Probably yes to the latter, as I've also always felt future picks were a little juiced in value comparatively. But again, maybe that is a reflection of the community itself too. Same way I feel like we always overvalue rookies for a few months post draft. It's easy to fall in love with your new shiny toys and err towards assuming the most optimistic outcomes. I can't stop doing it to 6th and 7th round RBs myself this year

I like using KTC to help me build a framework for an initial trade, but then I normally leave it behind as we hammer out final details because I don't mind too much if a calc says I'm slightly losing a trade long as I'm getting what I think is right for my roster. And then sometimes I'll use it too when a league mate sends me a wildly off value trade offer but I don't think it's malicious and I wouldn't mind working something out with them; just so they know I'm valuing my players close to consensus and am not someone to panic sell bc of a negative roto blurb during mini camp.

 

[Buckna]

Errr, isn't KTC the opposite of that? It's the only calculator (or at least the original, if others have started copying it) that adds a penalty to the side with more parts, specifically to avoid just adding up pennies for a dollar.

Granted, it's not perfect as that is something that's very difficult to account for algorithmically, but you can't just add up four random 2nds to get Jamaar Chase like you can on most calcs. Eventually if you add enough crazy stuff you'll probably get there, but every time you add an additional piece it applies a penalty to try and account for that.

Not sure about that - Dynasty Dominator also does that. It also accounts for gaining roster spots, which KTC doesn’t.

I do know that KTC weighs draft picks absurdly heavily compared to other calcs. Especially future picks. for that reason I don’t typically trust it with anything involving picks + players.

A fun experiment is plugging in pick 1.01, then plugging in Jeanty by name and getting 2 different values.

The pick is more valuable, 8,049 to 7,815

KTC is crowd-sourced so it's not so much "it" valuing picks highly as it is the consensus.

I actually think it's a bit ahead of the curve on that one. Youth and future picks get valued higher and higher by the consensus every year as people more and more have decied they want 26 year olds instead of 28 year olds and then 24 year olds instead of 26 year olds and 21 year olds instead of 24 year olds (who may as well be in a retirement home by then). I think most calcs generally lag on that kind of thing compared to KTC.

In general, I find that any calc that has human created values tends to lag significantly, especially in season where actual fantasy players change their opinion on players fast and wildly while rankers/calcs generally only make small adjustments and then finally make the big swooping ones in the offseason. It's actually a market inefficiency I try to target if I know a guy in my league likes to use calcs.

On the one hand I understand that.

On the other hand, I know for a fact that people deliberately mess with the algorithm.

But I don’t believe the pick values are crowdsourced. I’ll have to look into that. I’ve never seen pick for value options there personally.

it’s a little wonky. In a perfect world crowdsourced values would be better than a given site assigning value. But we live in an imperfect world.

I’m not a huge fan of the valuations at KTC. I suspect a good number of people click stuff that makes them giggle rather than clicking stuff that makes sense.

Also what am I supposed to do with Gibbs/BJT/Jameson?

I’ve gotta cut one? What? lol

You've already responded most of the points I would have said. To give FreeBaGel credit, KTC does try to compensate for the 4 qtrs for a dollar, but so do lots of other calcs and they are all have their flaws. Similar to your clicks for giggles comment (or I'd argue clicks as quick as possible to just get past that initial popup), since it is crowd sourced it sees much wilder swings in value and very knee jerk reactions. Sometimes that is good as those based on rankings don't get updated very quickly/often or you can disagree with someone's rankings. Other times it is prone to wild overreactions because most of the people playing this hobby have zero patience.

I'd point to the recent Breece Hall conversations in some of these threads and how its been pointed out these boards are much higher than consensus on his value. I'd argue that most casuals out there are way too down in general on Breece and just overreacting to last year and some coachspeak comments. But my major beef you already pointed out, it highly overvalues draft picks. To go back to your Cam Ward example, their calc has the 1.06 worth more than him and we all know it's going to be a rare SF league where he's going that late. Granted that's one small isolated example

 

[Buckna]

Errr, isn't KTC the opposite of that? It's the only calculator (or at least the original, if others have started copying it) that adds a penalty to the side with more parts, specifically to avoid just adding up pennies for a dollar.

Granted, it's not perfect as that is something that's very difficult to account for algorithmically, but you can't just add up four random 2nds to get Jamaar Chase like you can on most calcs. Eventually if you add enough crazy stuff you'll probably get there, but every time you add an additional piece it applies a penalty to try and account for that.

Not sure about that - Dynasty Dominator also does that. It also accounts for gaining roster spots, which KTC doesn’t.

I do know that KTC weighs draft picks absurdly heavily compared to other calcs. Especially future picks. for that reason I don’t typically trust it with anything involving picks + players.

A fun experiment is plugging in pick 1.01, then plugging in Jeanty by name and getting 2 different values.

The pick is more valuable, 8,049 to 7,815

Solid point. The one thing I think might weigh a bit into that discrepancy is that a pick may always hold a slightly higher value than the player (even when 99.5% of the community would accredit that exact pick to that exact player) is just that the pick is still more fungible. A pick can be anything, it can even be a boat! Lol. But back to your point; what should that value difference really be and is KTC capturing that correctly or still over valuing it? Probably yes to the latter, as I've also always felt future picks were a little juiced in value comparatively. But again, maybe that is a reflection of the community itself too. Same way I feel like we always overvalue rookies for a few months post draft. It's easy to fall in love with your new shiny toys and err towards assuming the most optimistic outcomes. I can't stop doing it to 6th and 7th round RBs myself this year

I like using KTC to help me build a framework for an initial trade, but then I normally leave it behind as we hammer out final details because I don't mind too much if a calc says I'm slightly losing a trade long as I'm getting what I think is right for my roster. And then sometimes I'll use it too when a league mate sends me a wildly off value trade offer but I don't think it's malicious and I wouldn't mind working something out with them; just so they know I'm valuing my players close to consensus and am not someone to panic sell bc of a negative roto blurb during mini camp.

This is typically how I use calcs, I want to double check my assumptions that I am not wildly low or off on someone compared to average consensus or that I'm not going to insult someone with an offer. If a trade is a little "off" one way or another doesn't matter too much to me, I just want to be in the ballpark of something that seems fair and hope we can work something out we both agree to. Of course, vast majority of the time I'll offer something the calc says is balanced or fair only to get rejected and told I'm way off

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Errr, isn't KTC the opposite of that? It's the only calculator (or at least the original, if others have started copying it) that adds a penalty to the side with more parts, specifically to avoid just adding up pennies for a dollar.

Granted, it's not perfect as that is something that's very difficult to account for algorithmically, but you can't just add up four random 2nds to get Jamaar Chase like you can on most calcs. Eventually if you add enough crazy stuff you'll probably get there, but every time you add an additional piece it applies a penalty to try and account for that.

Not sure about that - Dynasty Dominator also does that. It also accounts for gaining roster spots, which KTC doesn’t.

I do know that KTC weighs draft picks absurdly heavily compared to other calcs. Especially future picks. for that reason I don’t typically trust it with anything involving picks + players.

A fun experiment is plugging in pick 1.01, then plugging in Jeanty by name and getting 2 different values.

The pick is more valuable, 8,049 to 7,815

Solid point. The one thing I think might weigh a bit into that discrepancy is that a pick may always hold a slightly higher value than the player (even when 99.5% of the community would accredit that exact pick to that exact player) is just that the pick is still more fungible. A pick can be anything, it can even be a boat! Lol. But back to your point; what should that value difference really be and is KTC capturing that correctly or still over valuing it? Probably yes to the latter, as I've also always felt future picks were a little juiced in value comparatively. But again, maybe that is a reflection of the community itself too. Same way I feel like we always overvalue rookies for a few months post draft. It's easy to fall in love with your new shiny toys and err towards assuming the most optimistic outcomes. I can't stop doing it to 6th and 7th round RBs myself this year

I like using KTC to help me build a framework for an initial trade, but then I normally leave it behind as we hammer out final details because I don't mind too much if a calc says I'm slightly losing a trade long as I'm getting what I think is right for my roster. And then sometimes I'll use it too when a league mate sends me a wildly off value trade offer but I don't think it's malicious and I wouldn't mind working something out with them; just so they know I'm valuing my players close to consensus and am not someone to panic sell bc of a negative roto blurb during mini camp.

This is typically how I use calcs, I want to double check my assumptions that I am not wildly low or off on someone compared to average consensus or that I'm not going to insult someone with an offer. If a trade is a little "off" one way or another doesn't matter too much to me, I just want to be in the ballpark of something that seems fair and hope we can work something out we both agree to. Of course, vast majority of the time I'll offer something the calc says is balanced or fair only to get rejected and told I'm way off

Oh yeah, calc value and manager value can be wildly different.

I use a few calcs, but the best ones are the ones that take roster size, number of teams, & league scoring into account.

And even then I check potential moves against value charts.

That’s when I make opening salvos to other owners. The downside of this is I’ll usually come in with a fair price, and some owners will simply never accept a deal unless they can needle you for one more piece or pick. Also, I never get lowball bargains because I never lowball people.

I see some deals go down & think, 1. “Damn that manager was dumb to sell so low” and 2. Man, I’d never come in with an offer that disrespectful”.

Ah well. I can sleep at night. Maybe that’s worth something.

 

[mjb03003]

Errr, isn't KTC the opposite of that? It's the only calculator (or at least the original, if others have started copying it) that adds a penalty to the side with more parts, specifically to avoid just adding up pennies for a dollar.

Granted, it's not perfect as that is something that's very difficult to account for algorithmically, but you can't just add up four random 2nds to get Jamaar Chase like you can on most calcs. Eventually if you add enough crazy stuff you'll probably get there, but every time you add an additional piece it applies a penalty to try and account for that.

Not sure about that - Dynasty Dominator also does that. It also accounts for gaining roster spots, which KTC doesn’t.

I do know that KTC weighs draft picks absurdly heavily compared to other calcs. Especially future picks. for that reason I don’t typically trust it with anything involving picks + players.

A fun experiment is plugging in pick 1.01, then plugging in Jeanty by name and getting 2 different values.

The pick is more valuable, 8,049 to 7,815

Solid point. The one thing I think might weigh a bit into that discrepancy is that a pick may always hold a slightly higher value than the player (even when 99.5% of the community would accredit that exact pick to that exact player) is just that the pick is still more fungible. A pick can be anything, it can even be a boat! Lol. But back to your point; what should that value difference really be and is KTC capturing that correctly or still over valuing it? Probably yes to the latter, as I've also always felt future picks were a little juiced in value comparatively. But again, maybe that is a reflection of the community itself too. Same way I feel like we always overvalue rookies for a few months post draft. It's easy to fall in love with your new shiny toys and err towards assuming the most optimistic outcomes. I can't stop doing it to 6th and 7th round RBs myself this year

I like using KTC to help me build a framework for an initial trade, but then I normally leave it behind as we hammer out final details because I don't mind too much if a calc says I'm slightly losing a trade long as I'm getting what I think is right for my roster. And then sometimes I'll use it too when a league mate sends me a wildly off value trade offer but I don't think it's malicious and I wouldn't mind working something out with them; just so they know I'm valuing my players close to consensus and am not someone to panic sell bc of a negative roto blurb during mini camp.

This is typically how I use calcs, I want to double check my assumptions that I am not wildly low or off on someone compared to average consensus or that I'm not going to insult someone with an offer. If a trade is a little "off" one way or another doesn't matter too much to me, I just want to be in the ballpark of something that seems fair and hope we can work something out we both agree to. Of course, vast majority of the time I'll offer something the calc says is balanced or fair only to get rejected and told I'm way off

Oh yeah, calc value and manager value can be wildly different.

I use a few calcs, but the best ones are the ones who take roster size, number of teams, & league scoring into account.

And even then I check potential moves against value charts.

That’s when I make opening salvos to other owners. The downside of this is I’ll usually come in with a fair price, and some owners will simply never accept a deal unless they can needle you for one more piece or pick. Also, I never get lowball bargains because I never lowball people.

I see some deals go down & think, 1. “Damn that manager was dumb to sell so low” and 2. Man, I’d never come in with an offer that disrespectful”.

Ah well. I can sleep at night. Maybe that’s worth something.

Same man, same. One other benefit (beyond being able to sleep at night) is that I don't end up in a lot of protracted negotiations that take days and end without a deal. I'm willing to go back and forth a little bit, but my original offer is usually strong enough that it's a minimal tweak.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Same man, same. One other benefit (beyond being able to sleep at night) is that I don't end up in a lot of protracted negotiations that take days and end without a deal. I'm willing to go back and forth a little bit, but my original offer is usually strong enough that it's a minimal tweak.

Another benefit is engendering trust with other managers, which lowers the resistance to future trades.

I’m in a league where I took over an orphan a couple years ago. Was told by like 6 managers that no one trades, boring league, etc, I think I made 10-12 deals that year with 6-7 teams total. Won the league in 2023, my 2nd year.

And now I’m able to approach just about any manager and get a deal worked out. Sometimes I’ll come in a little low, knowing which managers will come back at me for more.

There’s one owner you’ll spend 2 days &
10 iterations, and right when you finally give up and give them everything they ask for they’ll come off the top rope asking for the blood of a virgin alpaca, 2 tail feathers from the fire-chested hummingbird, shavings from a unicorn horn and your 1st born male child. I finally got a deal done with that dude this year. I’m still in disbelief.

 

[steelcityman]

felt like it was not an ideal time to sell him. People will just think I'm panicking.

Would you move him for Saquan?

I was in that position last week and moved Hall+LB2 for Saquan. Got 4 years older in the process.

Curious if you’d make that same move for a win-now roster.

My Breece Hall teams are both positioned as contenders but no, I'd rather keep Breece, but I'd not feel bad about making the move.

Barkely's workload last year scares me in the same way McCaffrey's did the previous season and in general despite some really strong success by some older RB's the last few years I still believe the odds favor trying to exit out for younger at that position, creating a larger window and trying to repeat/extend the process. So this is just how I prefer to manage my teams, I may be totally wrong and others owners less age averse would probably like that deal for you a lot.

Saquon was soooo good though. I'm willing to assume that I'm going to get two more partial seasons (miss only a handful of games) at near (say 75%) his production from last year, so I'll keep Saquon. I think I'd need something pretty significant on top.

i traded my first next year, to move back into first this year and get Loveland. I have Saquon, and if this season doesnt go as planned, I will trade him to a contender and get back that 1st. I am not trading him now, cause he was used a lot last year. Thats just dumb. He's a freak, and Philly is so good. Match made in heaven. Our startup season was before Saquon's 2nd NFL season, I took him 2nd overall, so I will enjoy it a bit longer, him finally being THAT guy.

 

[joey]

I use a few calcs, but the best ones are the ones that take roster size, number of teams, & league scoring into account

Care to share a link to a calculator(s) that does this?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I use a few calcs, but the best ones are the ones that take roster size, number of teams, & league scoring into account

Care to share a link to a calculator(s) that does this?

One is called “dynasty dominator“ and it’s an app. The other is a tool included on asite that is competing with this one so I’m not sure it would be appropriate for me to share it.

 

[IHEARTFF]

I use a few calcs, but the best ones are the ones that take roster size, number of teams, & league scoring into account

Care to share a link to a calculator(s) that does this?

One is called “dynasty dominator“ and it’s an app. The other is a tool included on asite that is competing with this one so I’m not sure it would be appropriate for me to share it.

The FBG trade calc tool has those features

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I use a few calcs, but the best ones are the ones that take roster size, number of teams, & league scoring into account

Care to share a link to a calculator(s) that does this?

One is called “dynasty dominator“ and it’s an app. The other is a tool included on asite that is competing with this one so I’m not sure it would be appropriate for me to share it.

The FBG trade calc tool has those features

Yes, indeed. That is also one that I use.

 

[joey]

I use a few calcs, but the best ones are the ones that take roster size, number of teams, & league scoring into account

Care to share a link to a calculator(s) that does this?

One is called “dynasty dominator“ and it’s an app. The other is a tool included on asite that is competing with this one so I’m not sure it would be appropriate for me to share it.

The FBG trade calc tool has those features

Yes, indeed. That is also one that I use.

Thanks fellas. I didn’t notice that feature in the FBG Trade Calc. I’ll check it out.

 

[efactor]

I use a few calcs, but the best ones are the ones that take roster size, number of teams, & league scoring into account

Care to share a link to a calculator(s) that does this?

One is called “dynasty dominator“ and it’s an app. The other is a tool included on asite that is competing with this one so I’m not sure it would be appropriate for me to share it.

The FBG trade calc tool has those features

Yes, indeed. That is also one that I use.

Good answer

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

A 2026 1st for Kincaid is ridiculous right? Even if it's TEP?

 

[Raging weasel]

A 2026 1st for Kincaid is ridiculous right? Even if it's TEP?

He's probably TE 8-10 so not crazy if it's a late first. I had him in redraft last year and wasn't happy with him so I personally wouldn't do it.
I have Andrews on the block for a 3rd and no bites, maybe you can get him cheaper.

 

[Blick]

A 2026 1st for Kincaid is ridiculous right? Even if it's TEP?

He's probably TE 8-10 so not crazy if it's a late first. I had him in redraft last year and wasn't happy with him so I personally wouldn't do it.
I have Andrews on the block for a 3rd and no bites, maybe you can get him cheaper.

Andrews for a 3rd? And no one wants him?

 

[Raging weasel]

A 2026 1st for Kincaid is ridiculous right? Even if it's TEP?

He's probably TE 8-10 so not crazy if it's a late first. I had him in redraft last year and wasn't happy with him so I personally wouldn't do it.
I have Andrews on the block for a 3rd and no bites, maybe you can get him cheaper.

Andrews for a 3rd? And no one wants him?

Not yet. Been up for 3 days and best offer has been a 4th. Still months to go so will hold a maybe get more in season.

 

[steelcityman]

I have Saquon, Breece, Bucky, Cook, Kaleb and Ollie Gordon(FFPC so can and do start 4 RB). But I need another WR for immediate impact as my 2nd starting WR. I wont trade Saqoun now, if my season goes down the tubes I can trade him later and get a 1st for next year(I traded my 2026 1st for Loveland this year). So that leaves Breece or Cook really. I know TB is loaded up with WRs, but Bucky seemed legit for at least a couple years. Kaleb is my guy. Ollie could be an add in to get a deal done.
No hurry to make a deal. Its just the other team has 8 really good WRs, and not so much at RB. Would make sense for us both to work something out.

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

A 2026 1st for Kincaid is ridiculous right? Even if it's TEP?

He's probably TE 8-10 so not crazy if it's a late first. I had him in redraft last year and wasn't happy with him so I personally wouldn't do it.
I have Andrews on the block for a 3rd and no bites, maybe you can get him cheaper.

I am relatively new to dynasty so I'm pretty ignorant (to prices) and just stingy in general. lol The guy was shopping Kincaid so I asked him what he wanted and he said a first and I just scoffed. On our mfl page it has Kincaid as TE15. I understand the appeal of him being in a good Bills offense but JA also throws it around and vultures those TDs. As you say, he was a pretty big let down last year so I agree with you that trading a 1st for him is risky.

 

[Rockchild]

A 2026 1st for Kincaid is ridiculous right? Even if it's TEP?

He's probably TE 8-10 so not crazy if it's a late first. I had him in redraft last year and wasn't happy with him so I personally wouldn't do it.
I have Andrews on the block for a 3rd and no bites, maybe you can get him cheaper.

I am relatively new to dynasty so I'm pretty ignorant (to prices) and just stingy in general. lol The guy was shopping Kincaid so I asked him what he wanted and he said a first and I just scoffed. On our mfl page it has Kincaid as TE15. I understand the appeal of him being in a good Bills offense but JA also throws it around and vultures those TDs. As you say, he was a pretty big let down last year so I agree with you that trading a 1st for him is risky.

I think he was banged up off and on last season but, unless you're a TE away from competing for a title, I would pass. I do like him to rebound a bit but there's enough uncertainty to be hesitant to give up a first. I wouldn't blame someone for doing it either, lol.

 

[Born to Run]

A 2026 1st for Kincaid is ridiculous right? Even if it's TEP?

He's probably TE 8-10 so not crazy if it's a late first. I had him in redraft last year and wasn't happy with him so I personally wouldn't do it.
I have Andrews on the block for a 3rd and no bites, maybe you can get him cheaper.

Andrews for a 3rd? And no one wants him?

There are several quality TE prospects in this years draft. Their owners might be hoping for a LaPorta/Bowers rookie performance.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

There are several quality TE prospects in this years draft. Their owners might be hoping for a LaPorta/Bowers rookie performance.

Like 4 or maybe 5 in the first 3 rounds of my 16 team SF TEP that’s ongoing.

Lot of optimism. Given the bust rate of the position,“the next LaPorta” might not even be the goal - the next start-able FF TE is a nice floor to hope for though.

 

[jm192]

Anyone buy or sell Javonte Williams? Got an offer for a 3rd. But that seems like giving him away.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Anyone buy or sell Javonte Williams? Got an offer for a 3rd. But that seems like giving him away.

I’d absolutely buy for a 3rd. Worthy gamble.

I would not sell for a 3rd, but it seems close.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Anyone buy or sell Javonte Williams? Got an offer for a 3rd. But that seems like giving him away.

I’d absolutely buy for a 3rd. Worthy gamble.

I would not sell for a 3rd, but it seems close.

Yep, I'd pay a 3rd for a shot at this year's Rico Dowdle.

 

[mjb03003]

Anyone buy or sell Javonte Williams? Got an offer for a 3rd. But that seems like giving him away.

I’d sell for a 3rd. That type of RB who has no long term deal, is on a second or third team, doesn’t have a super secure role, AND has significant injury history, is just not valued in dynasty.

I’m not seeing any market for guys like Tony Pollard, D’Andre Swift, and Brian Robinson right now and I think all are coming off better seasons and are more secure than Javonte.

Unless you’re a big time contender and Javonte is someone you could reasonably expect to use at flex… bye.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Anyone buy or sell Javonte Williams? Got an offer for a 3rd. But that seems like giving him away.

I’d sell for a 3rd. That type of RB who has no long term deal, is on a second or third team, doesn’t have a super secure role, AND has significant injury history, is just not valued in dynasty.

I’m not seeing any market for guys like Tony Pollard, D’Andre Swift, and Brian Robinson right now and I think all are coming off better seasons and are more secure than Javonte.

Unless you’re a big time contender and Javonte is someone you could reasonably expect to use at flex… bye.

Good zero RB target. Def a lottery ticket. You just have to be prepared to light that 3rd on fire if he doesn’t hit.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

Anyone buy or sell Javonte Williams? Got an offer for a 3rd. But that seems like giving him away.

I’d sell for a 3rd. That type of RB who has no long term deal, is on a second or third team, doesn’t have a super secure role, AND has significant injury history, is just not valued in dynasty.

I’m not seeing any market for guys like Tony Pollard, D’Andre Swift, and Brian Robinson right now and I think all are coming off better seasons and are more secure than Javonte.

Unless you’re a big time contender and Javonte is someone you could reasonably expect to use at flex… bye.

I agree with this. In the 2nd round you can take your chances on someone with less risk and more security to their situation. Difficult to sell him for a 3rd, but if it's an early 3rd (OTC), I'd have a hard time saying no, if there was someone I liked and there probably will be in a 10 teamer I am in.

 

[Raging weasel]

A 2026 1st for Kincaid is ridiculous right? Even if it's TEP?

He's probably TE 8-10 so not crazy if it's a late first. I had him in redraft last year and wasn't happy with him so I personally wouldn't do it.
I have Andrews on the block for a 3rd and no bites, maybe you can get him cheaper.

Andrews for a 3rd? And no one wants him?

There are several quality TE prospects in this years draft. Their owners might be hoping for a LaPorta/Bowers rookie performance.

Draft already happened and there are at least 4 teams that he could help. I'll happily start him at flex(TEP) with Kittle until one of my rookie TE or
WRs show something. Tried to trade to the Likely owner but turns out the reigning champ in empire leagues can't make trades.

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

People don't want to trade for Andrews since he could still get cut or traded and even if he isn't he'll not be resigned (by BAL) for his age 30 season

 

[menobrown]

Anyone buy or sell Javonte Williams? Got an offer for a 3rd. But that seems like giving him away.

I'd take the third.

Javonte just ran behind a really strong OL, led his team in carries and was 5th in the NFL in pass targets among RB's and turned that into RB37 in PPG. Just don't see any upside. We/me take ACL recovery for granted, he's a cautionary tale, just not the same guy, his ACL recovery/surgery squeezed all the juice out from him.

 

[Blick]

Anyone buy or sell Javonte Williams? Got an offer for a 3rd. But that seems like giving him away.

I'd take the third.

Javonte just ran behind a really strong OL, led his team in carries and was 5th in the NFL in pass targets among RB's and turned that into RB37 in PPG. Just don't see any upside. We/me take ACL recovery for granted, he's a cautionary tale, just not the same guy, his ACL recovery/surgery squeezed all the juice out from him.

How many times do you draft someone in the 3rd that EVER cracks your lineup? Give me the starting RB with little to no competition at the moment. If he is what we think (toast), so be it.

 

[mjb03003]

Anyone buy or sell Javonte Williams? Got an offer for a 3rd. But that seems like giving him away.

I'd take the third.

Javonte just ran behind a really strong OL, led his team in carries and was 5th in the NFL in pass targets among RB's and turned that into RB37 in PPG. Just don't see any upside. We/me take ACL recovery for granted, he's a cautionary tale, just not the same guy, his ACL recovery/surgery squeezed all the juice out from him.

How many times do you draft someone in the 3rd that EVER cracks your lineup? Give me the starting RB with little to no competition at the moment. If he is what we think (toast), so be it.

Not all 3rd rounders are created equal but you can definitely get a 21-22 year old with solid draft capital who has infinitely higher odds of still having value in a couple years than Javonte.

 

[Blick]

Anyone buy or sell Javonte Williams? Got an offer for a 3rd. But that seems like giving him away.

I'd take the third.

Javonte just ran behind a really strong OL, led his team in carries and was 5th in the NFL in pass targets among RB's and turned that into RB37 in PPG. Just don't see any upside. We/me take ACL recovery for granted, he's a cautionary tale, just not the same guy, his ACL recovery/surgery squeezed all the juice out from him.

How many times do you draft someone in the 3rd that EVER cracks your lineup? Give me the starting RB with little to no competition at the moment. If he is what we think (toast), so be it.

Not all 3rd rounders are created equal but you can definitely get a 21-22 year old with solid draft capital who has infinitely higher odds of still having value in a couple years than Javonte.

I disagree. All 3rd rounders are created equal. Statistically speaking, one of this year’s 3rd round picks will outperform Javonte (as projected) over their entire career. It’s a complete crapshoot. None are better than the others. If you want to chase the next Puka, go ahead. Give me the points and any glimmer of hope that Javonte regains any of his explosiveness.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

People don't want to trade for Andrews since he could still get cut or traded and even if he isn't he'll not be resigned (by BAL) for his age 30 season

Seems like a lot of assumptions are being made here.
1. Likely has more trade value.
2. Charlie Kolar has shown promise as a TE2 on the depth chart when given the chance to play.
3. Andrews is a long way from being washed.

I'd be heavily surprised if Andrews is traded and fall-out-of-my-chair stunned if he's cut. Final play of the playoff game against the Bills aside, Andrews was obviously the more sure handed between him and Likely. Likely was more dynamic, but Baltimore uses Andrews as the ultimate safety valve and it shows in the number of catches he makes. Trading Andrews and keeping Likely as the TE1 doesn't seem like a path to making the team better this year, which is a year they should be a strong contender.

 

[efactor]

A 2026 1st for Kincaid is ridiculous right? Even if it's TEP?

He's probably TE 8-10 so not crazy if it's a late first. I had him in redraft last year and wasn't happy with him so I personally wouldn't do it.
I have Andrews on the block for a 3rd and no bites, maybe you can get him cheaper.

Andrews for a 3rd? And no one wants him?

Yeah, I would smash accept that deal even if I had Bowers and McBride on my team.

In a 16 teamer, I moved Andrews pre rookie draft for pick 2.10 and a swap of 1st rounders next year, which I think will benefit me quite a bit. One of those situations where I think the other team is vastly overrating their roster for 2025.

Andrews is only 30 for the 2025 season, which isn't old for a TE. Even if he does move on from the Ravens after this season, pretty good chance he ends up in a better situation as far as targets.

 

[mjb03003]

Anyone buy or sell Javonte Williams? Got an offer for a 3rd. But that seems like giving him away.

I'd take the third.

Javonte just ran behind a really strong OL, led his team in carries and was 5th in the NFL in pass targets among RB's and turned that into RB37 in PPG. Just don't see any upside. We/me take ACL recovery for granted, he's a cautionary tale, just not the same guy, his ACL recovery/surgery squeezed all the juice out from him.

How many times do you draft someone in the 3rd that EVER cracks your lineup? Give me the starting RB with little to no competition at the moment. If he is what we think (toast), so be it.

Not all 3rd rounders are created equal but you can definitely get a 21-22 year old with solid draft capital who has infinitely higher odds of still having value in a couple years than Javonte.

I disagree. All 3rd rounders are created equal. Statistically speaking, one of this year’s 3rd round picks will outperform Javonte (as projected) over their entire career. It’s a complete crapshoot. None are better than the others. If you want to chase the next Puka, go ahead. Give me the points and any glimmer of hope that Javonte regains any of his explosiveness.

Good luck with that.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Take the 3rd and draft Jaydon Blue

 

[menobrown]

Anyone buy or sell Javonte Williams? Got an offer for a 3rd. But that seems like giving him away.

I'd take the third.

Javonte just ran behind a really strong OL, led his team in carries and was 5th in the NFL in pass targets among RB's and turned that into RB37 in PPG. Just don't see any upside. We/me take ACL recovery for granted, he's a cautionary tale, just not the same guy, his ACL recovery/surgery squeezed all the juice out from him.

How many times do you draft someone in the 3rd that EVER cracks your lineup? Give me the starting RB with little to no competition at the moment. If he is what we think (toast), so be it.

RB37, under 10 points is a game is no one I ever want in my starting lineup. If the third round pick does not work out I'd rather have the roster space.

 

[menobrown]

Take the 3rd and draft Jaydon Blue

Was going to say the same thing actually.

 

[joey]

Take the 3rd and draft Jaydon Blue

Wait til the 3rd is on the clock though, if this is your plan, since Blue is usually gone in the late 2nd.

(Or perhaps the taking of Blue is unrelated to the 3rd round pick being discussed here)

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Take the 3rd and draft Jaydon Blue

That’s my target in the 3rd.

 

[menobrown]

Take the 3rd and draft Jaydon Blue

Wait til the 3rd is on the clock though, if this is your plan, since Blue is usually gone in the late 2nd.

(Or perhaps the taking of Blue is unrelated to the 3rd round pick being discussed here)

Of you can trade Javonte for a third, and package the extra third you just got to move up and get Blue who usually goes late round 2, sometimes into round 3.

I actually passed Blue at 3.3 in a FFPC league I moved down from 3.8 and have second guessed that decision. Goal was trying to get into pick 3.3 or 3.4 or trade down as long as Sampson(I had picked Judkins) or Blue was still on the board. Guy at 3.3 took my offer, and I went Sampson but really in hindsight regret that move.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Anyone buy or sell Javonte Williams? Got an offer for a 3rd. But that seems like giving him away.

I'd take the third.

Javonte just ran behind a really strong OL, led his team in carries and was 5th in the NFL in pass targets among RB's and turned that into RB37 in PPG. Just don't see any upside. We/me take ACL recovery for granted, he's a cautionary tale, just not the same guy, his ACL recovery/surgery squeezed all the juice out from him.

How many times do you draft someone in the 3rd that EVER cracks your lineup? Give me the starting RB with little to no competition at the moment. If he is what we think (toast), so be it.

RB37, under 10 points is a game is no one I ever want in my starting lineup. If the third round pick does not work out I'd rather have the roster space.

No one is taking a hail marry on Javonte hoping he'll be RB37.

Even though "he led the Broncos in carries and only finished RB37" was obviously an intentionally misleading way of saying he had 139 carries, Dallas, unlike Denver, has continually given their lead back 230+ carries a year. And that's including the last 3 years where their options at lead back ranged from middling to downright bad. Rico Dowdle 235 carries in 2024, Tony Pollard 252 carries in 2023, over the hill 3.8ypc Ezekiel Elliot 231 carries in 2022.

No one is hoping Javonte will be the next big thing. But someone in Dallas is probably going to get 230+ carries and 40+ receptions this year and Javonte is currently the most likely to be that guy. Not someone a rebuilder needs but a decent shot at a solid plodder Rico Dowdle 2024 quality starting RB for a year is a reasonable return on a 3rd round pick if you're a competing team that needs another RB (which, let's face it, in the current FF landscape almost everyone could use another startable RB).

But yes, I do agree packaging that 3rd with another 3rd or something to try and get into the late 2nd for Blue is a better option. But Javonte has way more upside than RB37 this year and a pretty reasonable chance of hitting it.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Take the 3rd and draft Jaydon Blue

That’s my target in the 3rd.

You'd better hope it's 3.01 and even then it's only 50/50. And that's assuming it's SF and TEP, otherwise no chance he's there in the 3rd.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

You'd better hope it's 3.01 and even then it's only 50/50. And that's assuming it's SF and TEP, otherwise no chance he's there in the 3rd.

Sigh. I know.

3.06, but a boy can dream. I almost got the 3.02 in the deal but dude countered at the last min and I didn’t wanna scuttle the 1.02 over 4 draft spots.

He’s the kind of trade partner who’d pull the plug on the whole thing if I tried to play hardball.

 

[menobrown]

No one is taking a hail marry on Javonte hoping he'll be RB37.

Well first of all I don't think he's going to even be RB37 because...

Even though "he led the Broncos in carries and only finished RB37" was obviously an intentionally misleading way of saying he had 139 carries, Dallas, unlike Denver,

I strongly dispute your assertion the comment I made is intentionally or unintentionally misleading. For starters it's a fact but the main point behind could not be more valid. He was in a GREAT situation and sucked.

What I wrote, that you labeled as intentionally misleading, is the exact thought process I had in my head when in our league someone offered me Tank Bigsby for him. I had every intention of cutting Javonte before I got that offer because I looked at him, knew he was a FA, and was thinking where he could realistically go that was better then leading his team in carries behind a strong OL and being the 5th most targeted RB in the league. And my answer to myself was nowhere. So again this is my thought process I'm sharing, it's not to make some misleading bullet points.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

What I wrote, that you labeled as intentionally misleading, is the exact thought process I had in my head when in our league someone offered me Tank Bigsby for him. I had every intention of cutting Javonte before I got that offer because I looked at him, knew he was a FA, and was thinking where he could realistically go that was better then leading his team in carries behind a strong OL and being the 5th most targeted RB in the league. And my answer to myself was nowhere. So again this is my thought process I'm sharing, it's not to make some misleading bullet points.

The irony in this is Tank Bigsby also "led his team in carries" and finished as RB39.

Leading the team in carries with 235 carries is obviously very different than leading the team in carries with 139. Will Javonte be the guy that Dallas gives those 230+ to this year? Maybe, maybe not. But I don't think he's any less likely to be that guy than Rico was last year.

What better situation could Javonte land in than Denver to possibly eclipse RB37 by a decent chunk? Well....Dallas, for starters, who has rolled out top 24 RBs for four years straight despite having nothing more than backup or 3rd string level NFL RB talent for 3 of those years.

 

[menobrown]

The irony in this is Tank Bigsby also "led his team in carries" and finished as RB39.

Not really ironic, don't really like Bigsby but was trying to handcuff Etienne.

But if you want to talk about intentionally misleading comments you just hit the nail on the head as that fails to take into account the passing game work which is most of Javonte's production.

But I don't think he's any less likely to be that guy than Rico was last year.

I think it's considerably less likely and I'd bet you our entry fee in our league on it next year. Just let me know.

But let's say he gets Rico's workload to the tee and is the same efficient guy as last year. That would work to a 11.835 fantasy points a game, nudging him into RB29. Thanks, I'll take the third and not embrace the loser mentality that I can't find that kind of production with the pick or roster spot.

 

[joey]

I think it's considerably less likely and I'd bet you our entry fee in our league on it next year. Just let me know

As if the FFPC SharkPool league wasn’t fun and interesting enough!