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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (2 Viewers)

I know any window can be a trade window, but when should people start looking to unload Lamar Jackson?

I'm sitting with Nix and Purdy in a 12 tm SF league to go along with him and am in win-now mode, but never a bad time to explore options.
Do you need a key piece or upgrade somewhere to feel you can compete? If not, why not just ride Jackson for the next half decade?
 
Lamar would be hard for me to move in a SF league unless I'm getting Jayden Daniels back. Lamar is only 28 and has shown no signs of slowing down athletically or getting to the point where he would only be a pocket passer, where he would still have decent value anyway.
 
I know any window can be a trade window, but when should people start looking to unload Lamar Jackson?

I'm sitting with Nix and Purdy in a 12 tm SF league to go along with him and am in win-now mode, but never a bad time to explore options.
Having three good starters in SF is a nice advantage, what position would you be seeking to improve (or are you looking for picks)? Depth can be tempting to unload, but it can backfire as well.
My WR corps is pretty old. I'm sitting with D Smith, Sutton, Metcalf, Ridley, Palmer, and Legette. I grabbed Kyle Williams in the rookie draft.

Not gonna lie. Once the trade bug bites, I keep getting that itch. I'm not immune to trading for the sake of trading. I updates my team in my sig. I have them hidden and didn't realize I had one in there for me from about 10 years ago!
 
I know any window can be a trade window, but when should people start looking to unload Lamar Jackson?

I'm sitting with Nix and Purdy in a 12 tm SF league to go along with him and am in win-now mode, but never a bad time to explore options.
Having three good starters in SF is a nice advantage, what position would you be seeking to improve (or are you looking for picks)? Depth can be tempting to unload, but it can backfire as well.
My WR corps is pretty old. I'm sitting with D Smith, Sutton, Metcalf, Ridley, Palmer, and Legette. I grabbed Kyle Williams in the rookie draft.

Not gonna lie. Once the trade bug bites, I keep getting that itch. I'm not immune to trading for the sake of trading. I updates my team in my sig. I have them hidden and didn't realize I had one in there for me from about 10 years ago!
The trading bug can be dangerous, I have had it before for sure. I don’t play SF but if you can add some youth/talent to your receiving core I would consider. Lamar is a top 3 player in that format, so I would make sure you are getting top value before considering.
 
I know any window can be a trade window, but when should people start looking to unload Lamar Jackson?

I'm sitting with Nix and Purdy in a 12 tm SF league to go along with him and am in win-now mode, but never a bad time to explore options.
Win now you keep him as long as you are in win now mode. He's better fantasy wise than both Nix and Purdy. You also need 3 QBs to legit contend in a SF, especially to get through bye weeks and injuries and maybe the odd bad match-up for Nix/Purdy.

Lamar is only 28 - he has a loooong way to go still. Hold because the first thing you will hope to do is find another Lamar if you trade him and the likelihood of that happening is very slim. Lamar and your other 2 QBs can help you compete for the next 5 years easily.
 
Just a weird way to reject a deal.

I think it’s nearly always good to counter. No matter how much the counter changes the original proposal.
I don't think it is always appropriate to counter but I always send a response either why I rejected the trade (not going to trade said player) or that I believe his value is higher than what was offered and/or what they were sending was not of interest. I always keep dialogue open and that I might take some time to put together a counter if I feel that something could be done.

If it is a low ball offer I don't take that as an insult other than they view the players different or they are trying to get a sweet deal. I don't counter all the time but I always respond.
 
I need some options, value wise, of an NFL vet I can get for 1 or 2 second round picks that I can plug and play in my flex all year. Maybe this can help others target some players who can help fill out their rosters. I'm defending champ and looking for some reliable depth and flex plays that can be had for a value of 1 or 2 seconds. I can mix and match offers accordingly throwing in players/picks but here are some value players I'm looking to acquire that won't break the bank. KTC current rankings are listed. These are guys I feel I could probably make a play for:

Jacoby Meyers (mid second?) KTC WR52 - 129 targets last year. Finished as a low end WR2 last 2 years. Better QB and better offense this year. Lots of upside as the teams WR1 with only Bowers as significant competition.
Jerry Jeudy (~2 seconds?) KTC WR38- 145 targets last year. Finished as a high end WR2. Still only 26 and could be trending upwards. Should be the clear #1 WR on a team needing playmaker. QB situation is very questionable.
Tyreek Hill (~2 seconds) KTC WR39 - 123 targets. Finished as a low end WR2. Injury plagued season with some questionable character issues starting to mix in. Previously had 4 top 5 WR finishes in a row. Upside is insane if he bounces back and could be a league winner if he plays the whole season. Also could be AB 2.0 by mid-season and out of the league.
DJ Moore (~2 seconds) KTC WR31 - 140 targets. Finished as a high end WR1. Consistently good player year in and year out. CHI added yet another talented pass catcher in Burden and a TE who will also look for targets in this newly revamped offense. Offense should be much improved but target competition could tough. DJM was unhappy last year and there were trade discussions at one point.
D'Andre Swift (1-2 seconds?) - KTC RB28. 300 total touches last year. Consistent low end RB2 each year. Chance to be a part of a very good revamped offense. Could greatly outperform draft capital/ADP. Issue - the HC was part of the last regime that kicked him out. Positive - Swift is familiar with the offense. Likely can plug and play and not miss a beat to start the season. Issue- could be replaced by mid-season once another RB gets up to speed or they sign a FA like Chubb or Dobbins. Massive value potential if he ends up playing all year with CHI and getting 250+ touches again. Can produce in the passing game.
Courtland Sutton (1 second?) - KTC WR47. 135 targets last year and finished as WR13. Still the lead WR on this team. Showed good chemistry with Nix last year. Not a fancy option but the more I think about it.


Some other guys that are values are listed below but they are on contending teams in my league. I'll make some pitches for these guys but will be tough to acquire right now. I'd like acquire someone now as their value is lower than when they are in season scoring points.

Mike Evans, Aiyuk, Godwin, Aaron Jones, Metcalf, Adams, Deebo, Etienne (RB36? what are we doing here? Previous year RB3 overall. Bounce back or cooked?).

Who looks to be of good value in 2025 - who are you targeting? Who am I missing?
 
I don't think I've done enough startups to know the "normal" amount of future rookie picks that get traded, but I just finished one where 2 teams control 9 of the 2026 2nd rounders and 6 teams traded their 2026 1st. FFPC triflex, so very shallow rosters and you only keep 16. You cannot trade picks more than a calendar year in advance. I see it more of a keeper league than dynasty, but that's for a different day.

Sort of just interested in seeing how market dynamics play out. I got an extra 2026 1st for what I think is cheap. I think it's very unlikely that all 6 teams who traded their 1st are in the playoffs. Or are happy with their roster construction even if they earn the 1.07 that goes to someone else. I'm planning to hold both of my 1sts because my guess is they're going to become expensive to whoever ends up owning the orphans of those teams or the current managers if they stick it out.

I'm going to be a nerd about what those teams do with those 2nds. They've essentially cornered the market. They drafted a bunch of older players that I'd normally think a tanking team was trying to flip for 2nds, but those trades will not be there. FFPC is a little different in that there's a tournament for the 1.01, so I think guys like Kamara will stay on those tanking teams. I'm not a dynasty legend, but I don't really value actually picking 2nds very highly in a shallow format. I think they make excellent trade chips, though.

I'm not a start-up master man, so maybe this is typical? Figured the sharks could give me some ideas about the smart way to play.

In FFPC Triflex, future rookie 2nds are valuable especially because they're generally not seen as deal-breakers if you try to trade for them (meaning that other teams will throw in a 2nd to get the deal done, whereas trying to get a 1st-round pick is more likely to kill the deal). On the whole, trying to land a future starter with just one random 2nd-round pick is difficult. But if you can pocket three or four picks, your odds of landing a starter or two obviously go up a ton. Of course, it varies with the draft class, but it's not unusual to see typical first-round picks like Zay Flowers, Achane, Nix or McConkey fall to the second, and then you've got Amon-Ra, Rachaad White, McBride, LaPorta, Rashee Rice, and Penix who were all recent second-rounders.
 
TE Premium - Does Luke Musgrave have any value? 25 player rosters.

I have Laporta, Jonnu, and Ertz rostered in addition to Luke.
Only if you want to handcuff Tucker, otherwise no. Generally I don’t do that either unless I’m very thin at the position. I don’t compare handcuffing Tucker / Musgrave the same as Andrews / Likely. Probably wasting a roster spot.
 
TE Premium - Does Luke Musgrave have any value? 25 player rosters.

I have Laporta, Jonnu, and Ertz rostered in addition to Luke.
It is really league dependent and how many TEs are stashed. I personally like to stash TEs and I would keep Musgrave but it really depends on your league. For some of these TEs it takes a few years for them to shine - which is the tough part stashing multiple TEs that you can't play at current time.
 
Got offered a 2026 1st for CMC. I said no but it did get me thinking about what his value is. 1 QB PPR dynasty.

I'm not a contending team (probably) so it feels like it might be a good idea to dangle him while he's healthy. So what say you carnivorous fish pool. What is a realistic asking price for CMC?
I traded CMC for a 2027 1st Round Pick. Team I traded him to is going for one last hurrah with CMC, Connor, DHenry. I am hoping in two years his pick will be toward the top of round one. I also have Barkley, JJacobs and JTaylor.
 
I need some options, value wise, of an NFL vet I can get for 1 or 2 second round picks that I can plug and play in my flex all year. Maybe this can help others target some players who can help fill out their rosters. I'm defending champ and looking for some reliable depth and flex plays that can be had for a value of 1 or 2 seconds. I can mix and match offers accordingly throwing in players/picks but here are some value players I'm looking to acquire that won't break the bank. KTC current rankings are listed. These are guys I feel I could probably make a play for:

Jacoby Meyers (mid second?) KTC WR52 - 129 targets last year. Finished as a low end WR2 last 2 years. Better QB and better offense this year. Lots of upside as the teams WR1 with only Bowers as significant competition.
Jerry Jeudy (~2 seconds?) KTC WR38- 145 targets last year. Finished as a high end WR2. Still only 26 and could be trending upwards. Should be the clear #1 WR on a team needing playmaker. QB situation is very questionable.
Tyreek Hill (~2 seconds) KTC WR39 - 123 targets. Finished as a low end WR2. Injury plagued season with some questionable character issues starting to mix in. Previously had 4 top 5 WR finishes in a row. Upside is insane if he bounces back and could be a league winner if he plays the whole season. Also could be AB 2.0 by mid-season and out of the league.
DJ Moore (~2 seconds) KTC WR31 - 140 targets. Finished as a high end WR1. Consistently good player year in and year out. CHI added yet another talented pass catcher in Burden and a TE who will also look for targets in this newly revamped offense. Offense should be much improved but target competition could tough. DJM was unhappy last year and there were trade discussions at one point.
D'Andre Swift (1-2 seconds?) - KTC RB28. 300 total touches last year. Consistent low end RB2 each year. Chance to be a part of a very good revamped offense. Could greatly outperform draft capital/ADP. Issue - the HC was part of the last regime that kicked him out. Positive - Swift is familiar with the offense. Likely can plug and play and not miss a beat to start the season. Issue- could be replaced by mid-season once another RB gets up to speed or they sign a FA like Chubb or Dobbins. Massive value potential if he ends up playing all year with CHI and getting 250+ touches again. Can produce in the passing game.
Courtland Sutton (1 second?) - KTC WR47. 135 targets last year and finished as WR13. Still the lead WR on this team. Showed good chemistry with Nix last year. Not a fancy option but the more I think about it.


Some other guys that are values are listed below but they are on contending teams in my league. I'll make some pitches for these guys but will be tough to acquire right now. I'd like acquire someone now as their value is lower than when they are in season scoring points.

Mike Evans, Aiyuk, Godwin, Aaron Jones, Metcalf, Adams, Deebo, Etienne (RB36? what are we doing here? Previous year RB3 overall. Bounce back or cooked?).

Who looks to be of good value in 2025 - who are you targeting? Who am I missing?
Doesn’t look like anyone else replied so I’ll give it a shot.
First thing I noticed…how is Sutton not worth 2 and round picks after last year if you judge players like Jeudy and old man Hill as being worth 2 2nds? Sutton is sneaky underrated, as is Meyers imo.


I think Meyers is probably the best “value” in terms of return on (likely) investment. With Sutton close behind, or maybe ahead, if his cost is anything close to the KTC ranking indicates.
 
I need some options, value wise, of an NFL vet I can get for 1 or 2 second round picks that I can plug and play in my flex all year. Maybe this can help others target some players who can help fill out their rosters. I'm defending champ and looking for some reliable depth and flex plays that can be had for a value of 1 or 2 seconds. I can mix and match offers accordingly throwing in players/picks but here are some value players I'm looking to acquire that won't break the bank. KTC current rankings are listed. These are guys I feel I could probably make a play for:

Jacoby Meyers (mid second?) KTC WR52 - 129 targets last year. Finished as a low end WR2 last 2 years. Better QB and better offense this year. Lots of upside as the teams WR1 with only Bowers as significant competition.
Jerry Jeudy (~2 seconds?) KTC WR38- 145 targets last year. Finished as a high end WR2. Still only 26 and could be trending upwards. Should be the clear #1 WR on a team needing playmaker. QB situation is very questionable.
Tyreek Hill (~2 seconds) KTC WR39 - 123 targets. Finished as a low end WR2. Injury plagued season with some questionable character issues starting to mix in. Previously had 4 top 5 WR finishes in a row. Upside is insane if he bounces back and could be a league winner if he plays the whole season. Also could be AB 2.0 by mid-season and out of the league.
DJ Moore (~2 seconds) KTC WR31 - 140 targets. Finished as a high end WR1. Consistently good player year in and year out. CHI added yet another talented pass catcher in Burden and a TE who will also look for targets in this newly revamped offense. Offense should be much improved but target competition could tough. DJM was unhappy last year and there were trade discussions at one point.
D'Andre Swift (1-2 seconds?) - KTC RB28. 300 total touches last year. Consistent low end RB2 each year. Chance to be a part of a very good revamped offense. Could greatly outperform draft capital/ADP. Issue - the HC was part of the last regime that kicked him out. Positive - Swift is familiar with the offense. Likely can plug and play and not miss a beat to start the season. Issue- could be replaced by mid-season once another RB gets up to speed or they sign a FA like Chubb or Dobbins. Massive value potential if he ends up playing all year with CHI and getting 250+ touches again. Can produce in the passing game.
Courtland Sutton (1 second?) - KTC WR47. 135 targets last year and finished as WR13. Still the lead WR on this team. Showed good chemistry with Nix last year. Not a fancy option but the more I think about it.


Some other guys that are values are listed below but they are on contending teams in my league. I'll make some pitches for these guys but will be tough to acquire right now. I'd like acquire someone now as their value is lower than when they are in season scoring points.

Mike Evans, Aiyuk, Godwin, Aaron Jones, Metcalf, Adams, Deebo, Etienne (RB36? what are we doing here? Previous year RB3 overall. Bounce back or cooked?).

Who looks to be of good value in 2025 - who are you targeting? Who am I missing?
Doesn’t look like anyone else replied so I’ll give it a shot.
First thing I noticed…how is Sutton not worth 2 and round picks after last year if you judge players like Jeudy and old man Hill as being worth 2 2nds? Sutton is sneaky underrated, as is Meyers imo.


I think Meyers is probably the best “value” in terms of return on (likely) investment. With Sutton close behind, or maybe ahead, if his cost is anything close to the KTC ranking indicates.
Appreciate it and you are probably correct in that Sutton is worth more than 1 second but maybe not 2? I think his age and a few "avg" years has his perceived value lower. Maybe a 2nd and a 3rd? I just might go do some shopping here.
 
I need some options, value wise, of an NFL vet I can get for 1 or 2 second round picks that I can plug and play in my flex all year. Maybe this can help others target some players who can help fill out their rosters. I'm defending champ and looking for some reliable depth and flex plays that can be had for a value of 1 or 2 seconds. I can mix and match offers accordingly throwing in players/picks but here are some value players I'm looking to acquire that won't break the bank. KTC current rankings are listed. These are guys I feel I could probably make a play for:

Jacoby Meyers (mid second?) KTC WR52 - 129 targets last year. Finished as a low end WR2 last 2 years. Better QB and better offense this year. Lots of upside as the teams WR1 with only Bowers as significant competition.
Jerry Jeudy (~2 seconds?) KTC WR38- 145 targets last year. Finished as a high end WR2. Still only 26 and could be trending upwards. Should be the clear #1 WR on a team needing playmaker. QB situation is very questionable.
Tyreek Hill (~2 seconds) KTC WR39 - 123 targets. Finished as a low end WR2. Injury plagued season with some questionable character issues starting to mix in. Previously had 4 top 5 WR finishes in a row. Upside is insane if he bounces back and could be a league winner if he plays the whole season. Also could be AB 2.0 by mid-season and out of the league.
DJ Moore (~2 seconds) KTC WR31 - 140 targets. Finished as a high end WR1. Consistently good player year in and year out. CHI added yet another talented pass catcher in Burden and a TE who will also look for targets in this newly revamped offense. Offense should be much improved but target competition could tough. DJM was unhappy last year and there were trade discussions at one point.
D'Andre Swift (1-2 seconds?) - KTC RB28. 300 total touches last year. Consistent low end RB2 each year. Chance to be a part of a very good revamped offense. Could greatly outperform draft capital/ADP. Issue - the HC was part of the last regime that kicked him out. Positive - Swift is familiar with the offense. Likely can plug and play and not miss a beat to start the season. Issue- could be replaced by mid-season once another RB gets up to speed or they sign a FA like Chubb or Dobbins. Massive value potential if he ends up playing all year with CHI and getting 250+ touches again. Can produce in the passing game.
Courtland Sutton (1 second?) - KTC WR47. 135 targets last year and finished as WR13. Still the lead WR on this team. Showed good chemistry with Nix last year. Not a fancy option but the more I think about it.


Some other guys that are values are listed below but they are on contending teams in my league. I'll make some pitches for these guys but will be tough to acquire right now. I'd like acquire someone now as their value is lower than when they are in season scoring points.

Mike Evans, Aiyuk, Godwin, Aaron Jones, Metcalf, Adams, Deebo, Etienne (RB36? what are we doing here? Previous year RB3 overall. Bounce back or cooked?).

Who looks to be of good value in 2025 - who are you targeting? Who am I missing?
Doesn’t look like anyone else replied so I’ll give it a shot.
First thing I noticed…how is Sutton not worth 2 and round picks after last year if you judge players like Jeudy and old man Hill as being worth 2 2nds? Sutton is sneaky underrated, as is Meyers imo.


I think Meyers is probably the best “value” in terms of return on (likely) investment. With Sutton close behind, or maybe ahead, if his cost is anything close to the KTC ranking indicates.
Appreciate it and you are probably correct in that Sutton is worth more than 1 second but maybe not 2? I think his age and a few "avg" years has his perceived value lower. Maybe a 2nd and a 3rd? I just might go do some shopping here.
That’s my take on the market for Sutton. Folks are hesitant to buy a player coming off a big year about to turn 30. Especially when they’ve only had 1 other year like it in the past 7. Yet owners are wanting to sell high, which I totally get.

Makes him a tricky player in dynasty. I have him worth just about 1x 2025 2nd. 2026 2nd & a 4th maybe?
 
I need some options, value wise, of an NFL vet I can get for 1 or 2 second round picks that I can plug and play in my flex all year. Maybe this can help others target some players who can help fill out their rosters. I'm defending champ and looking for some reliable depth and flex plays that can be had for a value of 1 or 2 seconds. I can mix and match offers accordingly throwing in players/picks but here are some value players I'm looking to acquire that won't break the bank. KTC current rankings are listed. These are guys I feel I could probably make a play for:

Jacoby Meyers (mid second?) KTC WR52 - 129 targets last year. Finished as a low end WR2 last 2 years. Better QB and better offense this year. Lots of upside as the teams WR1 with only Bowers as significant competition.
Jerry Jeudy (~2 seconds?) KTC WR38- 145 targets last year. Finished as a high end WR2. Still only 26 and could be trending upwards. Should be the clear #1 WR on a team needing playmaker. QB situation is very questionable.
Tyreek Hill (~2 seconds) KTC WR39 - 123 targets. Finished as a low end WR2. Injury plagued season with some questionable character issues starting to mix in. Previously had 4 top 5 WR finishes in a row. Upside is insane if he bounces back and could be a league winner if he plays the whole season. Also could be AB 2.0 by mid-season and out of the league.
DJ Moore (~2 seconds) KTC WR31 - 140 targets. Finished as a high end WR1. Consistently good player year in and year out. CHI added yet another talented pass catcher in Burden and a TE who will also look for targets in this newly revamped offense. Offense should be much improved but target competition could tough. DJM was unhappy last year and there were trade discussions at one point.
D'Andre Swift (1-2 seconds?) - KTC RB28. 300 total touches last year. Consistent low end RB2 each year. Chance to be a part of a very good revamped offense. Could greatly outperform draft capital/ADP. Issue - the HC was part of the last regime that kicked him out. Positive - Swift is familiar with the offense. Likely can plug and play and not miss a beat to start the season. Issue- could be replaced by mid-season once another RB gets up to speed or they sign a FA like Chubb or Dobbins. Massive value potential if he ends up playing all year with CHI and getting 250+ touches again. Can produce in the passing game.
Courtland Sutton (1 second?) - KTC WR47. 135 targets last year and finished as WR13. Still the lead WR on this team. Showed good chemistry with Nix last year. Not a fancy option but the more I think about it.


Some other guys that are values are listed below but they are on contending teams in my league. I'll make some pitches for these guys but will be tough to acquire right now. I'd like acquire someone now as their value is lower than when they are in season scoring points.

Mike Evans, Aiyuk, Godwin, Aaron Jones, Metcalf, Adams, Deebo, Etienne (RB36? what are we doing here? Previous year RB3 overall. Bounce back or cooked?).

Who looks to be of good value in 2025 - who are you targeting? Who am I missing?
Doesn’t look like anyone else replied so I’ll give it a shot.
First thing I noticed…how is Sutton not worth 2 and round picks after last year if you judge players like Jeudy and old man Hill as being worth 2 2nds? Sutton is sneaky underrated, as is Meyers imo.


I think Meyers is probably the best “value” in terms of return on (likely) investment. With Sutton close behind, or maybe ahead, if his cost is anything close to the KTC ranking indicates.
Appreciate it and you are probably correct in that Sutton is worth more than 1 second but maybe not 2? I think his age and a few "avg" years has his perceived value lower. Maybe a 2nd and a 3rd? I just might go do some shopping here.
That’s my take on the market for Sutton. Folks are hesitant to buy a player coming off a big year about to turn 30. Especially when they’ve only had 1 other year like it in the past 7. Yet owners are wanting to sell high, which I totally get.

Makes him a tricky player in dynasty. I have him worth just about 1x 2025 2nd. 2026 2nd & a 4th maybe?
Agreed. Sutton is likely a Hold for those that roster him since folks want to buy him for 2nd’s, but he played at 1st round rookie pick value last year. With a very exciting young QB tossing the rock. I wouldn’t sell Sutton for a 2nd and 3nd, or 2 2nds, unless they were guaranteed to be high picks or I’m in a total rebuild and want to get whatever picks I can for vets.
 
Something I've noticed, in startup drafts (TE premium) we have two Raiders consistently going in the top 6 overall picks.
Something's gotta give, right?
Last year at this time there were three Lions going consistently in the top 13-14 overall. Two of them live up to their pick slot, but they also had things in place to be a good offense.
 
Something I've noticed, in startup drafts (TE premium) we have two Raiders consistently going in the top 6 overall picks.
Something's gotta give, right?
Last year at this time there were three Lions going consistently in the top 13-14 overall. Two of them live up to their pick slot, but they also had things in place to be a good offense.
As a Raiders fan, this frightens me. ;)
 
Something I've noticed, in startup drafts (TE premium) we have two Raiders consistently going in the top 6 overall picks.
Something's gotta give, right?
Last year at this time there were three Lions going consistently in the top 13-14 overall. Two of them live up to their pick slot, but they also had things in place to be a good offense.
Maybe it is concerning but both Bowers and Jeanty are elite players. Bowers has already done, with not so great QBs, so I feel pretty comfortable with his value long term. Jeanty should be fine but you are paying a premium for him considering he hasn't played in the NFL yet.

Something to think about is Bowers and Jeanty's volume and touches should be safe as they should both be featured often in this offense. If Geno plays like he has been that offense will be much improved and have more opportunities to score TDs.
 
How high would the TE’s go in a SF, TEP, 14 team rookie draft?
I’m in 2x 16 team rookie drafts now, both SF TEP

Draft 1:
1.09 - Loveland
1.12 - Warren (this felt late)
2.05 - Fergusen
2.11 - Taylor
2.12 - Arroyo
2.14 - Fannin

Draft 2:
1.03 - Warren
1.07 - Loveland
1.15 - Taylor
2.08 - Arroyo
2.09 - Fergusen
2.10 - Fannin

That’s tiers 1-2
 
Something I've noticed, in startup drafts (TE premium) we have two Raiders consistently going in the top 6 overall picks.
Something's gotta give, right?
Last year at this time there were three Lions going consistently in the top 13-14 overall. Two of them live up to their pick slot, but they also had things in place to be a good offense.

I made a separate thread about it but I think people are vastly underrating the chances of Bowers taking a decent sized step back.

Of the other 10 best rookie TE seasons of all-time, for virtually all of them that season represented their ceiling, and their stats fell off (usually pretty quickly) from there.

Additionally, the coaching change seems like it's being overlooked for some reason. It's a totally different offense, with a new coach that isn't exactly known for using his TEs.

Jimmy Graham's target volume fell off substantially when he moved from New Orleans to Seattle, and those Seattle teams weren't exactly loaded with WR talent (Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse).
 
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Just got an interesting offer to tier UP at QB in superflex. Considering it heavily.

Give: Goff, 2026 1st (mid) 2026 2nd (mid)
Get: Burrow

It's tempting to tier up to a set-and-forget type of QB, but I'm not competing in this league unless a lot of things go right. Any insights?
 
Just got an interesting offer to tier UP at QB in superflex. Considering it heavily.

Give: Goff, 2026 1st (mid) 2026 2nd (mid)
Get: Burrow

It's tempting to tier up to a set-and-forget type of QB, but I'm not competing in this league unless a lot of things go right. Any insights?
Tough call. If you’re not competing I’d lean towards sticking with Goff & keeping the future 1st & 2nd.

Though Burrow is a very tempting tier-up, I agree.

The thing is, Goff is a very consistent QB as well. Somewhat underrated.

2024
Goff - 24.2 PPG
Burrow - 27.7

Goff had 6 games over 30 points, 2 of those over 40, and 1 over 50. Which is kind of surprising because I was going to make an off the cuff comment about Burrow’s ceiling being higher.

Burrow had 6 games over 30 points, 3 of those over 40.

Burrow is 2 years younger, but 28/30 age for a pocket-oriented QB seems like they both have a lot of effective years remaining.

I dunno - like I said, I’d be very tempted. Burrow definitely *feels* like the better FF QB. But if you’re not a “burrow away from the LCG”, maybe consider whether those future 1st & 2nd are potentially worth more than the 3.5 PPG difference between Burrow & Goff?

I am assuming they both continue to play at a high level, of course.

Tough call. Wish I could be more confident in a recommendation. That’s a steep price for that upgrade. If it were Darnold or Geno + those picks it’s a no-brainer. Goff is good enough that it’s close.
 
Just got an interesting offer to tier UP at QB in superflex. Considering it heavily.

Give: Goff, 2026 1st (mid) 2026 2nd (mid)
Get: Burrow

It's tempting to tier up to a set-and-forget type of QB, but I'm not competing in this league unless a lot of things go right. Any insights?
Tough call. If you’re not competing I’d lean towards sticking with Goff & keeping the future 1st & 2nd.

Though Burrow is a very tempting tier-up, I agree.

The thing is, Goff is a very consistent QB as well. Somewhat underrated.

2024
Goff - 24.2 PPG
Burrow - 27.7

Goff had 6 games over 30 points, 2 of those over 40, and 1 over 50. Which is kind of surprising because I was going to make an off the cuff comment about Burrow’s ceiling being higher.

Burrow had 6 games over 30 points, 3 of those over 40.

Burrow is 2 years younger, but 28/30 age for a pocket-oriented QB seems like they both have a lot of effective years remaining.

I dunno - like I said, I’d be very tempted. Burrow definitely *feels* like the better FF QB. But if you’re not a “burrow away from the LCG”, maybe consider whether those future 1st & 2nd are potentially worth more than the 3.5 PPG difference between Burrow & Goff?

I am assuming they both continue to play at a high level, of course.

Tough call. Wish I could be more confident in a recommendation. That’s a steep price for that upgrade. If it were Darnold or Geno + those picks it’s a no-brainer. Goff is good enough that it’s close.
Ha. I offered up Darnold + 1st +2nd instead and it was insta rejected (maybe understandably). I'll continue to think about this one for a while. My QB room is Goff, Darnold, Ward and some junk.
 
My QB room is Goff, Darnold, Ward and some junk.
In that context I’d probably be looking to tier up from Darnold whole hoping Cam Is the real deal in the pros (I traded for the 1.02 to draft him in 1 league so I’ll be 💯 rooting for that).

But yeah, maybe look into turning Darnold into Nix or Herbert using those picks. (No idea who’s available, just throwing that out there)

Also, not for nuthin but there’s this groupthink happening where everyone has decided/agreeed that Darnold sucks, he’s going to stink up the joint in Seattle and be a 1 & done while Milroe gets a bunch of work. I’m not at all convinced that narrative is true, and if it is, the Seahawks are pretty well hosed. Their best outcome is that Darnold is a competent winning QB while Milroe is developed over the next year or 2.

It’s wild to see that narrative form and take hold of the FG community seemingly overnight when someone put out a blurb noting the Seahawks had an out after a year. Milroe is a developmental QB and IMO nowhere near ready to start in the NFL. It would probably ruin him if they tried. My opinion is Darnold has at least 1 full year and even if they move off of him, there’ll be a job for him somewhere (Steelers maybe)

The point of all of this is that you might be fine sticking with Goff/Darnold while you figure out what Cam Ward is. Spend the 1st & on players that’ll build out your team.

The upside of all that is in a year you might have 3 solid QB, and at that point you’ll be able to decide if leveling up one of them is what’s best for your team. Might be better to move one for an asset that helps you more. Heck, Darnold’s value could increased significantly if he outplays people’s extremely low current expectations of him.
 
My QB room is Goff, Darnold, Ward and some junk.
In that context I’d probably be looking to tier up from Darnold whole hoping Cam Is the real deal in the pros (I traded for the 1.02 to draft him in 1 league so I’ll be 💯 rooting for that).

But yeah, maybe look into turning Darnold into Nix or Herbert using those picks. (No idea who’s available, just throwing that out there)

Also, not for nuthin but there’s this groupthink happening where everyone has decided/agreeed that Darnold sucks, he’s going to stink up the joint in Seattle and be a 1 & done while Milroe gets a bunch of work. I’m not at all convinced that narrative is true, and if it is, the Seahawks are pretty well hosed. Their best outcome is that Darnold is a competent winning QB while Milroe is developed over the next year or 2.

It’s wild to see that narrative form and take hold of the FG community seemingly overnight when someone put out a blurb noting the Seahawks had an out after a year. Milroe is a developmental QB and IMO nowhere near ready to start in the NFL. It would probably ruin him if they tried. My opinion is Darnold has at least 1 full year and even if they move off of him, there’ll be a job for him somewhere (Steelers maybe)

The point of all of this is that you might be fine sticking with Goff/Darnold while you figure out what Cam Ward is. Spend the 1st & on players that’ll build out your team.

The upside of all that is in a year you might have 3 solid QB, and at that point you’ll be able to decide if leveling up one of them is what’s best for your team. Might be better to move one for an asset that helps you more. Heck, Darnold’s value could increased significantly if he outplays people’s extremely low current expectations of him.
Appreciate the feedback.

I completely agree on the Darnold issue. At the end of the day he's a 28YO high draft capital QB who just posted career numbers. Of course, he has his flaws and we don't know how Kubiak will use him, but I can't imagine Kubs will try to fit a square peg into a round hole. I'm sure he knows very well what he has in Darnold and how to get the best out of him. Look, Darnold may flop spectacularly in Seattle. It won't be the first time a team has signed a fairly high priced FA QB and it hasn't worked out. 1 year out or not, Seattle put their faith in Darnold to be their long term QB1. I doubt Milroe takes that spot, ever, but that's a thought for another thread.
 
Of course, he has his flaws and we don't know how Kubiak will use him, but I can't imagine Kubs will try to fit a square peg into a round hole. I'm sure he knows very well what he has in Darnold and how to get the best out of him.
From what I recall of Kubiak, he loves to throw to his RBs out of the backfield, and that’s one of KWIII’s strengths. Also wheel routes, & working off PA.

From what I’ve been reading that actually fits Darnold’s game more than the offense he ran in MIN.

Good luck with the decision. Burrow is a super sexy FF asset. But man that’s a lot of scratch to not really help your build improve that much.
 
Just got an interesting offer to tier UP at QB in superflex. Considering it heavily.

Give: Goff, 2026 1st (mid) 2026 2nd (mid)
Get: Burrow

It's tempting to tier up to a set-and-forget type of QB, but I'm not competing in this league unless a lot of things go right. Any insights?
Isn't Burrow a first round startup pick in superflex?
Take Burrow and move him again for a better deal than what you gave.

Unless that future 1st is YOURS I'd maybe hold and have control on if it's a super high pick, and maybe trade Goff for picks
 
Something I've noticed, in startup drafts (TE premium) we have two Raiders consistently going in the top 6 overall picks.
Something's gotta give, right?
Last year at this time there were three Lions going consistently in the top 13-14 overall. Two of them live up to their pick slot, but they also had things in place to be a good offense.

I made a separate thread about it but I think people are vastly underrating the chances of Bowers taking a decent sized step back.

Of the other 10 best rookie TE seasons of all-time, for virtually all of them that season represented their ceiling, and their stats fell off (usually pretty quickly) from there.

Additionally, the coaching change seems like it's being overlooked for some reason. It's a totally different offense, with a new coach that isn't exactly known for using his TEs.

Jimmy Graham's target volume fell off substantially when he moved from New Orleans to Seattle, and those Seattle teams weren't exactly loaded with WR talent (Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse).
I think a significant chance Bowers takes a step back also, especially if Jeanty is the real deal
 
Something I've noticed, in startup drafts (TE premium) we have two Raiders consistently going in the top 6 overall picks.
Something's gotta give, right?
Last year at this time there were three Lions going consistently in the top 13-14 overall. Two of them live up to their pick slot, but they also had things in place to be a good offense.

I made a separate thread about it but I think people are vastly underrating the chances of Bowers taking a decent sized step back.

Of the other 10 best rookie TE seasons of all-time, for virtually all of them that season represented their ceiling, and their stats fell off (usually pretty quickly) from there.

Additionally, the coaching change seems like it's being overlooked for some reason. It's a totally different offense, with a new coach that isn't exactly known for using his TEs.

Jimmy Graham's target volume fell off substantially when he moved from New Orleans to Seattle, and those Seattle teams weren't exactly loaded with WR talent (Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse).
I think a significant chance Bowers takes a step back also, especially if Jeanty is the real deal
Why couldn’t it have the opposite effect? I’ve seen plenty situations where having a effective RB opens up the passing game.
 
My QB room is Goff, Darnold, Ward and some junk.
In that context I’d probably be looking to tier up from Darnold whole hoping Cam Is the real deal in the pros (I traded for the 1.02 to draft him in 1 league so I’ll be 💯 rooting for that).

But yeah, maybe look into turning Darnold into Nix or Herbert using those picks. (No idea who’s available, just throwing that out there)

Also, not for nuthin but there’s this groupthink happening where everyone has decided/agreeed that Darnold sucks, he’s going to stink up the joint in Seattle and be a 1 & done while Milroe gets a bunch of work. I’m not at all convinced that narrative is true, and if it is, the Seahawks are pretty well hosed. Their best outcome is that Darnold is a competent winning QB while Milroe is developed over the next year or 2.

It’s wild to see that narrative form and take hold of the FG community seemingly overnight when someone put out a blurb noting the Seahawks had an out after a year. Milroe is a developmental QB and IMO nowhere near ready to start in the NFL. It would probably ruin him if they tried. My opinion is Darnold has at least 1 full year and even if they move off of him, there’ll be a job for him somewhere (Steelers maybe)

The point of all of this is that you might be fine sticking with Goff/Darnold while you figure out what Cam Ward is. Spend the 1st & on players that’ll build out your team.

The upside of all that is in a year you might have 3 solid QB, and at that point you’ll be able to decide if leveling up one of them is what’s best for your team. Might be better to move one for an asset that helps you more. Heck, Darnold’s value could increased significantly if he outplays people’s extremely low current expectations of him.
Ended up declining the offer with some explanation along the lines of "great offer, but my team isn't competing with or without Burrow" and went to bed. Woke up with another offer of Goff + 2026 1st +2026 4th for Burrow that I ended up accepting. As GG says a few posts below, he's a guy I can probably flip for far more value than Goff and a 1st. Also, keeping the 2nd helps with the flow of youth into this team.
 
Something I've noticed, in startup drafts (TE premium) we have two Raiders consistently going in the top 6 overall picks.
Something's gotta give, right?
Last year at this time there were three Lions going consistently in the top 13-14 overall. Two of them live up to their pick slot, but they also had things in place to be a good offense.

I made a separate thread about it but I think people are vastly underrating the chances of Bowers taking a decent sized step back.

Of the other 10 best rookie TE seasons of all-time, for virtually all of them that season represented their ceiling, and their stats fell off (usually pretty quickly) from there.

Additionally, the coaching change seems like it's being overlooked for some reason. It's a totally different offense, with a new coach that isn't exactly known for using his TEs.

Jimmy Graham's target volume fell off substantially when he moved from New Orleans to Seattle, and those Seattle teams weren't exactly loaded with WR talent (Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse).
I think a significant chance Bowers takes a step back also, especially if Jeanty is the real deal
Why couldn’t it have the opposite effect? I’ve seen plenty situations where having a effective RB opens up the passing game.
I'm with you. Teams can support two superstar offensive weapons. Bowers dominated college the minute he walked into the SEC. He dominated the NFL last year. Chip Kelly and Geno Smith are upgrades from last years OC and QB. Chip Kelly plays with pace. They have one of the worst WR rooms in the league too so why wouldn't the offense run through Bowers and Jeanty?
 
Something I've noticed, in startup drafts (TE premium) we have two Raiders consistently going in the top 6 overall picks.
Something's gotta give, right?
Last year at this time there were three Lions going consistently in the top 13-14 overall. Two of them live up to their pick slot, but they also had things in place to be a good offense.

I made a separate thread about it but I think people are vastly underrating the chances of Bowers taking a decent sized step back.

Of the other 10 best rookie TE seasons of all-time, for virtually all of them that season represented their ceiling, and their stats fell off (usually pretty quickly) from there.

Additionally, the coaching change seems like it's being overlooked for some reason. It's a totally different offense, with a new coach that isn't exactly known for using his TEs.

Jimmy Graham's target volume fell off substantially when he moved from New Orleans to Seattle, and those Seattle teams weren't exactly loaded with WR talent (Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse).
I think a significant chance Bowers takes a step back also, especially if Jeanty is the real deal
I’ll definitely be paying close attention to this situation as before the draft I traded away 1.01, 1.08, and Jonnu for Bowers and Devonta Smith. I think Jeanty and Bowers will both be fine, FWIW. If teams have to be aware of Ashton in the red zone then maybe it will open up more scoring opportunities for Brock. I kinda get the hesitation however. I’m just banking (hopeful) for the longevity at the TE position with Brock. Seems like I’ve been through an endless stream of players at the position since I joined this league. *fingers crossed*
 
pace. They have one of the worst WR rooms in the league too so why wouldn't the offense run through Bowers and Jeanty?
It could so long as Bowers is basically a big WR.

Geno’s track record throwing to TE is a little concerning, but probably not applicable. I imagine Bowers will still get plenty of work since the other targets are Tre Tucker & Jack Bech, plus a bunch of dudes I’ve never heard of.
 
pace. They have one of the worst WR rooms in the league too so why wouldn't the offense run through Bowers and Jeanty?
It could so long as Bowers is basically a big WR.

Geno’s track record throwing to TE is a little concerning, but probably not applicable. I imagine Bowers will still get plenty of work since the other targets are Tre Tucker & Jack Bech, plus a bunch of dudes I’ve never heard of.
Right. I don't see Bowers losing significant work to Jack Bech or Tre Tucker. Bowers should get his 150 targets, Meyers around 125, and Bech/Tucker the leftovers. Jeanty's passing game work will be what Mattison/Abdullah/Zamir/McCormick got last year. Even Mostert has has never really been a target hog as the backup.
 
Jeanty's passing game work will be what Mattison/Abdullah/Zamir/McCormick got last year. Even Mostert has has never really been a target hog as the backup.
This could be a little bit of an underestimation. Geno does throw to the RBs. KWIII had a bunch of targets, as did several other RB in SEA.

I’m assuming they’re going to run a similar offense, so I’d be optimistic if I were a Jeanty shareholder in PPR.
 
The year before Jimmy Graham went to a Pete Carroll offense in Seattle, Seattle's leading receiver was an undersized Doug Baldwin, going into his 5th year in the league and never having really established himself, coming off a year with 98 targets, which was his career high.

Jimmy Graham was essentially a big WR, coming off multiple seasons of around 140 targets. He was set to dominate the target count.

As it turned out, he would never exceed 100 targets again.

Carroll instead preferred to run the offense through a rotating door of undersized WRs. First Doug Baldwin, then Tyler Lockett. And of course, mostly through Marshawn Lynch. With Graham moving from an offense in New Orleans that just had 650 pass attempts to one in Seattle that had 490.

The similarities are actually pretty crazy. Carroll walks into a LV team with a lead receiver that is basically a modern version of Doug Baldwin. Bowers is basically a modern version of Jimmy Graham. LV quietly threw a ton last year, 635 pass attempts, but now shifts to a coach that will try to throw a lot less and usually prefers to be between 450-550 (and only ever approached 550 when he had elite QB play). And of course, with his first round pick he drafted a guy to be his new Marshawn Lynch.

I think the big potential saving grace here is that LV's defense will be a lot worse than Seattle's was so maybe they'll be forced to throw more. And then there's also the risk that Bowers holds up okay in target count for year 1, but LV adds more receiving talent in the near future.

The risks are being way undersold, and not baked into his value at all.
 
The year before Jimmy Graham went to a Pete Carroll offense in Seattle, Seattle's leading receiver was an undersized Doug Baldwin, going into his 5th year in the league and never having really established himself, coming off a year with 98 targets, which was his career high.

Jimmy Graham was essentially a big WR, coming off multiple seasons of around 140 targets. He was set to dominate the target count.

As it turned out, he would never exceed 100 targets again.

Carroll instead preferred to run the offense through a rotating door of undersized WRs. First Doug Baldwin, then Tyler Lockett. And of course, mostly through Marshawn Lynch. With Graham moving from an offense in New Orleans that just had 650 pass attempts to one in Seattle that had 490.

The similarities are actually pretty crazy. Carroll walks into a LV team with a lead receiver that is basically a modern version of Doug Baldwin. Bowers is basically a modern version of Jimmy Graham. LV quietly threw a ton last year, 635 pass attempts, but now shifts to a coach that will try to throw a lot less and usually prefers to be between 450-550 (and only ever approached 550 when he had elite QB play). And of course, with his first round pick he drafted a guy to be his new Marshawn Lynch.

I think the big potential saving grace here is that LV's defense will be a lot worse than Seattle's was so maybe they'll be forced to throw more. And then there's also the risk that Bowers holds up okay in target count for year 1, but LV adds more receiving talent in the near future.

The risks are being way undersold, and not baked into his value at all.
Legit concern for sure.

Bowers has been group-think anointed though. If this were Reddit you’d be downvoted to oblivion for what’s actually a pretty reasonable take.
 
In a TEP league is the 1.03 worth Hockenson and Worthy?
Even in SF, the tier drop after Jeanty and Hampton is really large. I feel like the 1.03 hits in that awkward spot just after a HUGE tier break where you'll never really get rookie value for that pick. I prefer to trade up or down or, in this case, completely out. In this particular case, I'd take the Hock/Worthy side.
 
In a TEP league is the 1.03 worth Hockenson and Worthy?
Lmao sorry, so much Bowers talk I thought qe were in the raider’s thread. :lol:

Personally I’m very high on Hock. A year removed from injury and a young QB should equate to a bounce-back.

That’s also a lot to pay for a re-roll at TE. The position has a high bust rate and even the good ones often take time to develop.

A few notable exceptions, of course, but in this case I’d keep Hock & Worthy.
 
In a TEP league is the 1.03 worth Hockenson and Worthy?
Even in SF, the tier drop after Jeanty and Hampton is really large. I feel like the 1.03 hits in that awkward spot just after a HUGE tier break where you'll never really get rookie value for that pick. I prefer to trade up or down or, in this case, completely out. In this particular case, I'd take the Hock/Worthy side.
Not me. I’ll take the 1.03 side for sure.
 
The year before Jimmy Graham went to a Pete Carroll offense in Seattle, Seattle's leading receiver was an undersized Doug Baldwin, going into his 5th year in the league and never having really established himself, coming off a year with 98 targets, which was his career high.

Jimmy Graham was essentially a big WR, coming off multiple seasons of around 140 targets. He was set to dominate the target count.

As it turned out, he would never exceed 100 targets again.

Carroll instead preferred to run the offense through a rotating door of undersized WRs. First Doug Baldwin, then Tyler Lockett. And of course, mostly through Marshawn Lynch. With Graham moving from an offense in New Orleans that just had 650 pass attempts to one in Seattle that had 490.

The similarities are actually pretty crazy. Carroll walks into a LV team with a lead receiver that is basically a modern version of Doug Baldwin. Bowers is basically a modern version of Jimmy Graham. LV quietly threw a ton last year, 635 pass attempts, but now shifts to a coach that will try to throw a lot less and usually prefers to be between 450-550 (and only ever approached 550 when he had elite QB play). And of course, with his first round pick he drafted a guy to be his new Marshawn Lynch.

I think the big potential saving grace here is that LV's defense will be a lot worse than Seattle's was so maybe they'll be forced to throw more. And then there's also the risk that Bowers holds up okay in target count for year 1, but LV adds more receiving talent in the near future.

The risks are being way undersold, and not baked into his value at all.

Kind of beat me to it and in better detail. LVR was 4th in passing attempts and 30th in rushing attempts last year. With Pete coming to town and now drafting Jeanty that ratio is likely to start moving the other way. Quality of attempts will probably greatly increase but targets almost assuredly will decrease for Bowers.

He's likely to compete with McBride for the top fantasy TE again, but he's going like first round in startups right now and McBride is more like the 2-3 turn despite only getting 6 less targets than Bowers and no real changes to his situation. When people are throwing around terms like "untouchable" they should be maybe kicking the tires and see if someone is willing to pay a king's ransom because it's probably going to change. If not, enjoy your super stud at TE. :shrug:
 
The risks are being way undersold, and not baked into his value at all.

When people are throwing around terms like "untouchable" they should be maybe kicking the tires and see if someone is willing to pay a king's ransom because it's probably going to change. If not, enjoy your super stud at TE. :shrug:
This echo's my belief on the projection of Bowers in 2025 under Chip & Pete.

They have a shiny new RB Toy they plan to utilize and another WR they hand picked to fit the schemes they want to run. While Bowers is a uniformly gifted TE (athlete), the system absolutely matters for his fantasy value.

I was looking to get Rome Odunze recently and we came to a package deal:
Send off: Bowers & my (projected late) 2026 2nd
Get Back: R Odunze, T Ferguson, D Njoku, his 2026 1st (projected early, he has had 1.01 last 2 years).
 

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