Raging weasel
Footballguy
I like the Hock/Worthy side. Worthy is better than whichever WR you'd take there and Hock can be a top 5 TE
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Raging weasel
Footballguy
Not bad but if I was going to trade the top player at any position I'd put it out league wide and see what comes in.This echo's my belief on the projection of Bowers in 2025 under Chip & Pete.
When people are throwing around terms like "untouchable" they should be maybe kicking the tires and see if someone is willing to pay a king's ransom because it's probably going to change. If not, enjoy your super stud at TE.
They have a shiny new RB Toy they plan to utilize and another WR they hand picked to fit the schemes they want to run. While Bowers is a uniformly gifted TE (athlete), the system absolutely matters for his fantasy value.
I was looking to get Rome Odunze recently and we came to a package deal:
Send off: Bowers & my (projected late) 2026 2nd
Get Back: R Odunze, T Ferguson, D Njoku, his 2026 1st (projected early, he has had 1.01 last 2 years).
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Ya take Worthy and Hock over pick 3 pretty easily. That side is easily way more valuable.
Now, if you're not high on those two players, trade them afterwards.
Worthy is going around pick 40 ADP, after the 6th rookie. Hock is going after the 11th rookie.
At least that's what I'd do. I'd at least look toove Worthy.
Unless of course the guy at 2 doesn't take Hampton, then it's a different story
Now, if you're not high on those two players, trade them afterwards.
Worthy is going around pick 40 ADP, after the 6th rookie. Hock is going after the 11th rookie.
At least that's what I'd do. I'd at least look toove Worthy.
Unless of course the guy at 2 doesn't take Hampton, then it's a different story
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Also, there's certainly been no clear #3 rookie. I've seen 4 different guys go #3 so far.
Those same 4 guys I've also seen go at 6 or later
Those same 4 guys I've also seen go at 6 or later
Last edited:
Birdie048
Footballguy
I did .... sort of ... I posted it on the MFL Trade Bait for the last 3 weeks .. only 2 weak offers but the Rome owner & I were working on itNot bad but if I was going to trade the top player at any position I'd put it out league wide and see what comes in.This echo's my belief on the projection of Bowers in 2025 under Chip & Pete.
When people are throwing around terms like "untouchable" they should be maybe kicking the tires and see if someone is willing to pay a king's ransom because it's probably going to change. If not, enjoy your super stud at TE.
They have a shiny new RB Toy they plan to utilize and another WR they hand picked to fit the schemes they want to run. While Bowers is a uniformly gifted TE (athlete), the system absolutely matters for his fantasy value.
I was looking to get Rome Odunze recently and we came to a package deal:
Send off: Bowers & my (projected late) 2026 2nd
Get Back: R Odunze, T Ferguson, D Njoku, his 2026 1st (projected early, he has had 1.01 last 2 years).
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Same - in my 3 dynasty leagues it's been a pretty consistent Jeanty/Hunter in 2 (IDP, so CB points) and then 3 has been Hampton, Ward, and Warren (TEP)
In the 12-team start 10 SF PPR no K, no D/ST 1.02 was Cam Ward - I traded to the 1.02 to take him as I have a championship roster that was thin at QB. The dude had 1.02 & 1.03 and made me promise to not take Hampton. I was like "you coulda just dealt me the 1.03 you know."
lol
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
For the Bowers talk and Pete Carroll it might be worth noting TE usage from Chip Kelly.
Looking at 2013-2015 as HC for the Eagles:
2013 — Foles / Vick combined for just over 4K yards. Ertz only started 3 games (though played in 16), but he & Celek combined for 108 targets, resulting in 68 receptions for 971 & 10 TD. Ertz 57 targets for 36/469/4, and Celeck 51 targets for 32/502/6
2014 — rough year for Iggles fans, with Foles & Mark “Dirty” Sanchez each starting 8 games. Still, 4356 combined passing yards. Ertz listed again as only starting 5, but playing in 16 games, and again combined with Brent Celek for a whopping 140 targets, of which 90 were caught for 1042 yards but only 4 TD. Ertz 89 targets for 58/702/3, and Celek with 51 targets for 32/340/1
2025 — Sam Bradford started 14, Sanches 2. They combined for 4087 yards. Ertz is listed as starting 7 games, but again played in 16. Ertz had a very respectable 112 targets, resulting in 75/853/2, Celek with 35 targets for 27/398/3
All told pretty solid TE usage.
2016 49ers:
note - this team was a hot mess:
Kaepernick & Gabbert combined for just 3166 PaYd. Of those, his old friend. Celek had 50 targets for 29/350/3, while the other 2 TE had single digit receptions. I’m not really looking at those guys.
I haven’t heard anything about Carroll taking on playcalling duties, so I’m going to assume Kelly is calling the offensive plays. Also worth noting, Kelly historically favors 11 personnel so I would assume Bowers will be on the field as the only TE a lot.
All told probably some reason for optimism on Bowers 2025 and beyond, but I do agree he’s likely to take a step back production-wise because the raiders have more weapons (theoretically) and a new hand-picked RB. They should run a much more balanced offense, and Jeanty will likely be catching ~50 out of the backfield. Maybe more.
It’s always tricky fleshing out what a new offense by a new regime will look like, but neither Kelly nor Carroll are unknown commodities. I’d say it’s pretty safe to assume at least 110 targets for Bowers, probably in the neighborhood of 90/900/7?
Disclaimer 1. That’s just a from the hip” projection - I honestly haven’t the foggiest how it’ll go down.
Disclaimer 2. The 2013-2015 Eagles were under Chip as HC. Pat Shurmer was the OC all 3 seasons. Hard to say if Kelly as OC will replicate the style as when he was HC. Folks around here tend to use HC/OC synonymously but that’s not always the case.
One other note - Kelly has historically favored an up-tempo offense, using no-huddle early and often trying to keep opponents off balance. I used to do the same in Madden with somewhat better results.
Looking at 2013-2015 as HC for the Eagles:
2013 — Foles / Vick combined for just over 4K yards. Ertz only started 3 games (though played in 16), but he & Celek combined for 108 targets, resulting in 68 receptions for 971 & 10 TD. Ertz 57 targets for 36/469/4, and Celeck 51 targets for 32/502/6
2014 — rough year for Iggles fans, with Foles & Mark “Dirty” Sanchez each starting 8 games. Still, 4356 combined passing yards. Ertz listed again as only starting 5, but playing in 16 games, and again combined with Brent Celek for a whopping 140 targets, of which 90 were caught for 1042 yards but only 4 TD. Ertz 89 targets for 58/702/3, and Celek with 51 targets for 32/340/1
2025 — Sam Bradford started 14, Sanches 2. They combined for 4087 yards. Ertz is listed as starting 7 games, but again played in 16. Ertz had a very respectable 112 targets, resulting in 75/853/2, Celek with 35 targets for 27/398/3
All told pretty solid TE usage.
2016 49ers:
note - this team was a hot mess:
Kaepernick & Gabbert combined for just 3166 PaYd. Of those, his old friend. Celek had 50 targets for 29/350/3, while the other 2 TE had single digit receptions. I’m not really looking at those guys.
I haven’t heard anything about Carroll taking on playcalling duties, so I’m going to assume Kelly is calling the offensive plays. Also worth noting, Kelly historically favors 11 personnel so I would assume Bowers will be on the field as the only TE a lot.
All told probably some reason for optimism on Bowers 2025 and beyond, but I do agree he’s likely to take a step back production-wise because the raiders have more weapons (theoretically) and a new hand-picked RB. They should run a much more balanced offense, and Jeanty will likely be catching ~50 out of the backfield. Maybe more.
It’s always tricky fleshing out what a new offense by a new regime will look like, but neither Kelly nor Carroll are unknown commodities. I’d say it’s pretty safe to assume at least 110 targets for Bowers, probably in the neighborhood of 90/900/7?
Disclaimer 1. That’s just a from the hip” projection - I honestly haven’t the foggiest how it’ll go down.
Disclaimer 2. The 2013-2015 Eagles were under Chip as HC. Pat Shurmer was the OC all 3 seasons. Hard to say if Kelly as OC will replicate the style as when he was HC. Folks around here tend to use HC/OC synonymously but that’s not always the case.
One other note - Kelly has historically favored an up-tempo offense, using no-huddle early and often trying to keep opponents off balance. I used to do the same in Madden with somewhat better results.
Last edited:
Birdie048
Footballguy
Nice thought process!!
Chip was quoted as saying he “was allowed to use 2 or 3 TE on the field at same time” so why not do it!
He was impressed with M Mayer early but recognized Bowers skill too.
As the one who traded away Brock Bowers, I felt the probability of regression was too high to ignore and just wanted to see what the market would be for him in trade value.
Very happy with return but time will tell and that is why we play this silly game!!
Chip was quoted as saying he “was allowed to use 2 or 3 TE on the field at same time” so why not do it!
He was impressed with M Mayer early but recognized Bowers skill too.
As the one who traded away Brock Bowers, I felt the probability of regression was too high to ignore and just wanted to see what the market would be for him in trade value.
Very happy with return but time will tell and that is why we play this silly game!!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Something I’m very rarely accused of.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Woke up this morning to three different trade offers for BTJ. I'm really not inclined to trade him because this team is young, took 3rd last year, and will compete again this year. But, if I could parlay those assets into Chase/Jefferson, it could be worth it for this competitive window. Anyone have recent trade data on BTJ?
Birdie048
Footballguy
Late 2024 when BTJ was in the middle of his break out, I traded away BTJ and Late 1st for KWIII/Charbs & Brian Robinson and mid-2nd (Needed RB help for playoffs ... my primary weakness).
I have not seen anything recently.
Lehigh98
Footballguy
I know KTC gets crapped on but they recently added a trade database that similar to DLF's but this one is free...
https://keeptradecut.com/dynasty/trade-database
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Good data points. Thanks for pointing this feature out!
TomServo
Footballguy
Thank you, I had been looking for this type of data.
Today
Kadarius Toney for Henry Ruggs
Big Nate
Footballguy
Is D'andre Swift a value right now? I know there is a lot of risk with him but he could end up the starting RB for the Bears. His value on KTC (i know I know) is about a mid 2026 second which is crazy value if he ends up the starting RB in CHI.
Pros
He knows Ben Johnson's offense inside and out from his time with the Lions which gives him a leg up on the starting role
His first 4years in the league he had solid YPC and production when he was on a good offense. CHI was turrible last year and the run game was not great. Offense should be improved this year
Very very cheap to acquire right now for a guy who has ~300 touches each of the last 2 years. If he gets 300 touches again this year he will outperform his ADP
He can fill that pass catching role as he did with the Lions where he had back to back 70+ targets
Cons
Ben Johnson and the Lions traded him away once already - it could happen again
CHI decides to sign a vet like Chubb or Dobbins early/mid season Swift could lose his job
CHI could go with a RBBC this year with Roschon but Roschon did not have a great year last year. But again CHI was bad so the whole running game could be improved.
Overall it is early in the offseason still and more changes could be coming but right now I see Swift as a value that I think I might try to acquire.
Pros
He knows Ben Johnson's offense inside and out from his time with the Lions which gives him a leg up on the starting role
His first 4years in the league he had solid YPC and production when he was on a good offense. CHI was turrible last year and the run game was not great. Offense should be improved this year
Very very cheap to acquire right now for a guy who has ~300 touches each of the last 2 years. If he gets 300 touches again this year he will outperform his ADP
He can fill that pass catching role as he did with the Lions where he had back to back 70+ targets
Cons
Ben Johnson and the Lions traded him away once already - it could happen again
CHI decides to sign a vet like Chubb or Dobbins early/mid season Swift could lose his job
CHI could go with a RBBC this year with Roschon but Roschon did not have a great year last year. But again CHI was bad so the whole running game could be improved.
Overall it is early in the offseason still and more changes could be coming but right now I see Swift as a value that I think I might try to acquire.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
That first entry in the cons really stands out to me.
Big Nate
Footballguy
Yep for sure. It is a big issue for me but what if Ben Johnson liked him but it was the ownership or the HC who wanted Gibbs and it made Swift expendible.
No doubt the CONS are why he's so cheap right now, but if Ben rides him this year with 250 carries and another 60-70 targets he will do well for fantasy. I guess if we had all the answers this FF thing would be easy. I think Swift is at a point where he's worth the gamble. Maybe he gets traded to another team at some point - he just turned 26 and has a few years left. Second round pick for even a flex type RB2 that is in a committee seams reasonable.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Good post. I never liked Swift’s game, but he is in a good position to contribute in FF.
Big Nate
Footballguy
I was all in on Swift early and then traded him away and was out. Now at his current value (2nd rounder) I think I'm back in. I'm always looking for values.
dipandglide
Footballguy
I've started selling Goff (superflex) and Metcalf, where I can get a good return. I doubt either value will be higher than it is now and they're creeping into that age where you'll lose flexibility in the trade market.
Which players are you trying to sell this offseason?
Which players are you trying to sell this offseason?
Big Nate
Footballguy
Both are good sells if you are trying to move on and don't need the points. If I was contender I would 100% keep Goff. First thing you will need to do if you trade Goff is to find a replacement as good as him and that is very tough to do, as you need to find a willing partner selling a good QB. Careful with this one if you need QBs still.
Metcalf is a different story as you can probably trade for another WR2 somewhere along the way. If you are contending Metcalf + a pick/player to tier up is a move I would do. Rebuilding I'm find with getting max value (young stud prospect or a pick). Just don't sell for peanuts just because. While the situation isn't great he's still a good WR. Early season after a big game you could sell/package him up and move him for good value at that time.
steelcityman
Footballguy
No one, the average age of my roster is 23.45 y/o.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Was looking to
Was trying to sell James Cook after last season but no bites, now with the contract issue he will be held. Put Hockenson out there but zero interest (understandable coming off an injury recovering season, but could not give him away).
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Eh, even if rebuilding I don't see why that would put Goff on the chopping block.
He's 30. A 30 year old QB has roughly the same career left as a 23 year old RB. Maybe more if he's one of the QBs that plays into their late 30's/early 40's.
Are rebuilders trying to sell Treyveon Henderson because he's too old and only has 5-7 years left? So why do they do it with QBs? That's one that always befuddles me.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Cook is a good candidate. I moved him in a couple of leagues late last year and in one spot earlier this year. I like Cook, drafted him everywhere, and I am down to maybe 20% exposure across my teams now.
I want to be out a year or two early on players before their trade value plummets. I can use the draft picks I gain later in the season if I'm competing to secure points on my championship runs. It's all about competing and having trade flexibility with your roster. I rarely end up with the D. Adams, Evans, Kupp's unless I can't move them, get them cheap after their value has cratered, or I'm a contender buying later in the season.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Moving Goff is more about diversification, or I have depth and want to sell high. I had a lot of exposure to him and want to lessen it at the top of his market value. Goff is a great superflex QB and should age well.
Metcalf's value has always been overblown. He never reached the "elite" tier, is closer to 30, and has a little buzz going to Pitt. I'd rather add draft picks or pivot to guys like Addison, Olave, or Odunze where I can. I'll hold if I can't get decent value.
dipandglide
Footballguy
It's not about moving Goff for the sake of moving Goff. It's about getting value, diversifying if you have a lot of exposure, or moving him if you have a lot of QB depth.
For example, I have one superflex team with Purdy, Goff, Young, and Arich (bought for 2.04, 3.09). I don't mind rolling with Purdy and company and adding a 1st, 2nd, 3rd that I got for Goff for flexibility later in the season if I'm contending. The 1st, 2nd, and 3rd have a lot more trade flexibility than someone like Goff will in that scenario. Dynasty rookie picks are GOLD and allow you options.
steelcityman
Footballguy
What were you looking to get for Cook? I thought about trading him too, but not so worried about contract, and that offense puts up the stats. I was hoping to package him and a rookie TE for a decent WR, but really never chased any opportunities.
Big Nate
Footballguy
It just depends on how much of a rebuild you are in. Are you wanting a top 1-3 pick? Having Goff might score you enough pts to push you too mid first round depending on your team. As an example: If you can trade Goff to a contender in a package deal who picked up Dart in the late first then that is something I might look to do. Wilson will start the year and Dart can sit on your bench and helps keeps your point total low. I do agree though if you are rebuilding with an outside shot at making playoffs and a run and are OK with a mid first pick then sure you can hold Goff.
Big Nate
Footballguy
Both can likely net you more value wise once they are scoring points early in the season. One big game early for Hock and you can make a deal if you need to trade him.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
For Cook I was looking for future picks. I think last year was probably a career year and was worried BUF would not extend him.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I thought after the season Cook had it was a good time to put out feelers, nobody seemed remotely interested though.
Big Nate
Footballguy
What would be the going value in a SF Dynasty league for Devante Adams. I need another fantasy producer to run it back and Adams seems like a good bet in that offense with Stafford. I doubt second round pick will get it done but 2 seconds seems much. Not sure throwing in a 3rd offers much additional value.....
Maybe a second and a prospect.
Maybe a second and a prospect.
dipandglide
Footballguy
It's weird. Cook's market has been small. I've moved him in a few places but it's taken a lot of work.
dipandglide
Footballguy
You might be able to get him for a top-half second. The cost will depend on the Adams owners team. It'll take more if they're contenders.
efactor
Footballguy
Put out some feelers for a WR in a 12 teamer and got offered Shakir for a 2026 1st rounder. Countered with a 1st rounder for DJ Moore which I thought was fair for a 28 year old receiver. Probably be around pick 7-8 next year realistically. Took over this team a few months ago. Declined outright. Kind of surprised.
Big Nate
Footballguy
1st for Shakir is too expensive as you say. Shakir went for a 2nd and a 4th in our league.
DJM is a reasonable target for a 1st. I wouldn't go any higher personally. Seems reasonable depending on league - fairly even on KTC too.
joey
Footballguy
I prefer a 2026 1st over both of those players mentioned fwiw.
Same. No way I’m giving a 1st for Shakir. It’s probably fair for Moore, but I’d rather spend that 1st in a different way, or simply hold.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I wouldn’t give a first for either, especially Shakir.
efactor
Footballguy
Yeah, no way for Shakir. I thought Moore was a "fair" deal. But OK with him turning it down.
Also, this was a 2026 1st, not 2025
Last edited:
joey
Footballguy
Shakir is a guy you’re ecstatic that you got for dirt cheap or held on to over his first few unproductive years. And now you have a nice value as your WR3 or WR4.
Or he’s a guy that you’re pissed off about cuz you rostered him since his rookie year in 3 of your 4 short-bench dynasty leagues, but you reluctantly dropped him at cut-down last year only to see him finally produce on someone else’s roster.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
You say that as if it applies to me. I’ve never rostered either player.Shakir is a guy you’re ecstatic that you got for dirt cheap or held on to over his first few unproductive years. And now you have a nice value as your WR3 or WR4.
Or he’s a guy that you’re pissed off about cuz you rostered him since his rookie year in 3 of your 4 short-bench dynasty leagues, but you reluctantly dropped him at cut-down last year only to see him finally produce on someone else’s roster.
joey
Footballguy
You say that as if it applies to me. I’ve never rostered either player.Shakir is a guy you’re ecstatic that you got for dirt cheap or held on to over his first few unproductive years. And now you have a nice value as your WR3 or WR4.
Or he’s a guy that you’re pissed off about cuz you rostered him since his rookie year in 3 of your 4 short-bench dynasty leagues, but you reluctantly dropped him at cut-down last year only to see him finally produce on someone else’s roster.
I said it as what I thought was an obvious reference to my own personal dynasty teams.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Shakir is a better IRL player than a fantasy asset. Shoot higher if you're moving a future 1st this early.
Why do owners trade future 1st's this early in the year? If you have to trade your first for depth now to contend, you aren't a true contender. Hold onto your pick (insurance), work the waiver wire, make some smaller moves, and IF you can compete and want to go for it, move your first later in the year for a non-injured piece or a blue chip vet on a non-competing team. There's nothing worse than trading a future 1st this early, you run into injuries, and you're screwed with no insurance. That's a quick ticket to the bottom of your leagues.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
If I have a good team, I'm keeping DJ Moore and hoping Ben Johnson unlocks more upside. If my team isn't very good, I would trade him for a late first which is the equivalent of Egbuka or Golden instead of letting Moore age out before my team is good again.
Birdie048
Footballguy
I had the exact opportunity but I shifted to Odunze instead of DJ Moore. While I think DJ is still worth late 1st, “IF” I am competitive I keep DJ
dipandglide
Footballguy
What is Mark Andrews worth in 2 PPR TE scoring leagues? It's a dynasty's best ball league, and you can start up to four TEs. For context, Andrews would've been the WR12 last year in scoring.
