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Edwards-Helaire - If You Were Drafting Tonight In PPR Redraft League (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Joe Bryant
- Start date
Man In The Box
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
Nope. RB>WR
WR market is saturated.
In all honesty though. Both of those WR and DJ too have proven they can't be counted on. CEH hasn't proven that by letting us down over and over.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
You say that like CEH was ever a value. He has been the 1.01 or 1.02 in dynasty and a top 10 pick since DWill opted out. We are looking at a select few of the most highly rated players out there.
THANK YOU
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Injury cloud? What is this injury cloud? Kamara is the 99th percentile outcome for CEH and he also plays on an elite offense.
Milkman
Footballguy
In a Dynasty startup draft I would draft CEH 1.01 without hesitation though. I couldn't hit the draft button fast enough.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
non sequiturIn a Dynasty startup draft I would draft CEH 1.01 without hesitation though. I couldn't hit the draft button fast enough.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I will say, I am just kind of playing for a reaction. It is fun to debate this. In the end, if you look at these Chiefs highlights, you will see the textbook definition of a week 1 RB break out.
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Milkman
Footballguy
Ok
But you're saying we don't know if he's really that good. I'm saying I've seen enough and know enough about the situation he's in that I value him more than everybody else except McCaffrey this year. FF is about making correct decisions at a higher rate quicker than your leaguemates.
Truebluey
Footballguy
I got him in a Dynasty startup slow email draft last week at #8, I couldn't believe my good fortune. It went McCaffrey, Henry, Kamara, Thomas, Barkley (!), Zeke, and Mahomes (2 QB League).In a Dynasty startup draft I would draft CEH 1.01 without hesitation though. I couldn't hit the draft button fast enough.
Truebluey
Footballguy
And Milkman, you're entertaining and I love it, but you are the definition of a "fall in love" drafter. Come on, be honest, how many players have you gushed about the past 3 years? I know it's a good list, but not all hits. I think we need to let this season play out, draw a deep breath, and then evaluate when we have a decent amount of evidence.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Kamara spent 2 years as the back-up RB in New Orleans and racked up 3,100 yards and 31 TDs. I am not worried if his back-up is good or not.
Milkman
Footballguy
FF is a fluid situation. I dump some players fast and hold on others. Sure I've missed on a bunch but I've hit on enough that I'm always competing.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
He is good and it is a good situation. It's still a risky move given how talented and good the situations are for other RBs.
habsfan
Footballguy
FF is partially about that. For me it's also partially about getting maximum production for minimum risk. Before 1.06 in PPR redraft I'm taking someone who has done it already - because I can. In the context of CMC, Barkley, Zeke, Kamara or even Cook, what CEH did Thursday night has to be just another day at the office every single week just to put him among those guys. To take him over those guys? Yeah I'm not there.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
As great as his opener was, one thing I was struck by was how small he looked. I’ll be interested to see how he responds later in the year to high workloads. It made me think ‘if CEH can be an every down back, why could yoked AF Austin Ekeler?’
Thanks.
I keep hearing that but I don't get it.
He's short at 5' 8". But not small at all at 210.
McCaffrey is 205. and 5' 11"
pantherclub
Footballguy
That all maybe correct but he did look small on Thursday. I doubt it plays a part in the season going further but I was taken back a bit at how he looked on the field beside the others
BoltNlava
Footballguy
LOL. I'm glad I got Gibson at 1.02 - what a steal right?
I do think people overreact some people overreact to week 1 performances but a lot of us thought he was legit before the draft and the people that drafted him were psyched to get some return on investment and feel like they got some validation that they made the right pick so they are excited. Like @DocHollidayI considered taking him for a brief second over Cook at 1.06 (PPR). I was/am high on CEH and don't know if he will finish above Cook/Mattison at the end of the season. The other part of the equation about whether he finishes higher over Cook is I felt compelled to take Mattison (10th) in a much higher round than Darrell WIlliams (~15th I think) went (12-team). CEH went the pick after - 1.07 in that draft.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
I don’t like hearing guys getting epidurals before the season starts
i agree with your point but see Clyde do that with his first professional touches was impressive to me.
McCaffrey was stuffed at the 1 yard line numbers times last year.
McCaffrey also added weight last year and is now playing at 210. https://247sports.com/nfl/carolina-panthers/Article/Christian-McCaffrey-has-added-five-pounds-of-muscle-during-2018-offseason-118519848/
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Ah, yes that makes more sense.
still find the TEs over CEH odd, unless TE premium, and then still odd. lol
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Fun fact: CEH has a higher BMI than Jonathan Taylor.
He's low and thick. I like how MJD compared CEH to himself.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I liked how in an era of many players hating FF, MJD not only played FF but took himself with his 1st pick every year. Love that dude.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
They put out more info on it and it’s not the epidural we typically think of. Dr. Chao basically said it was about a 1 on a 1-10 level of concern.
Kelce is such a huge advantage over 3/4 of the league that if you hit right on your 5/6 round picks you will have a beast of a team.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
We’re talking 1.06 ~> though.
ADP on Kelce (non-TE-P) puts him at your second pick if you get CEH at 6-7-8.
For the record, he definitely was impressive in his debut. I just think he's a little overhyped right now because he played first. Based on Dodds projections there a good chance he doesn't finish as a RB1 this week in ppr (12 team).
You have 7 RBs projected to score more than he did. 2 of those likely won't. 5 will outscore CEH.
DJ already out scored him.
You have 8 RBs projected to score within 3 points of CEH. 4 will get their TD and outscore CEH.
So that's 10 RBs that should outscore him.
You have 15 RBs projected within a long TD run of CEH. I don't know how to handicap this, but those are the guys who will push him down from RB11. Last years week 1 actual stats would have 11 RBs in front of him so I feel pretty comfortable with this prediction.
You have 7 RBs projected to score more than he did. 2 of those likely won't. 5 will outscore CEH.
DJ already out scored him.
You have 8 RBs projected to score within 3 points of CEH. 4 will get their TD and outscore CEH.
So that's 10 RBs that should outscore him.
You have 15 RBs projected within a long TD run of CEH. I don't know how to handicap this, but those are the guys who will push him down from RB11. Last years week 1 actual stats would have 11 RBs in front of him so I feel pretty comfortable with this prediction.
I wouldn't sniff CEH at pick 6th. You're paying his upside price there. I'll snag Thomas and then grab a guy like Chubb, Drake, Eckler, Jacobs, AJones in the second who has similar upside.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Fair. At this point with Kamara & Cook’s contract issues solved I put CEH behind them as well. So now I’m like 1.08-1.09
I would draft him 1st round - his value is certainly bolstered by his situation. Having a piece of that offense is a perk for sure.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
And someone will grab Godwin or Hill or Julio on the way back in the 2nd to counter Michael Thomas on some weeks, it's a see-saw is all i'm saying but believe me I track what you're saying and the risk factor of this rookie, yeah I would likely find your route better BUT I also find by middle of the 2nd round I am looking at James Conner in some formats, not sure I can count on a lot of those RBs being there. You gotta bite the bullet on RB in like 2 of the first 3 or 4 rounds, it just doesn't get any easier the later it goes and you can find Receiver after Receiver in the 4-5-6-7-8 rounds that can actually Start weekly and is not in a timeshare.
Good post
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Yup. This has been one of the more interesting things so far this year.
Even Tony Dungy said he reminded him of Warrick Dunn. Must have been cut or style. Dunn played at like 185. Radically different body type.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think it was the shiftiness Dungy was commenting on. It was right after a nice lateral move that turned a 2 yard loss into a 5 yard gain that he said that. At the time I thought it was a good comparison - not body type, but the wiggle.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
CEH was already a mid 1st. Week 1 at least confirmed he wasn't overdrafted.
He's fantastic against against defenders 1-on-1, this is how he was so successful in LSU's offense. Kansas City did a great job of putting him in these situations for the most part. But he struggled in the muck with those few gl carries.
With Mahomes, Hill and Kelce forcing attention from defenses, running backs should have a lot of room. Being way better than Darrel Williams in the open field, CEH will soon see the majority of the snaps I would think. Only thing is, KC might want to use Darrel Williams in GL situations or when milking the clock.
It's close between Dalvin and CEH, but I'd still take Kamara and his 90+ targets, 10 tds. Toss up between MT depends on league settings.
He's fantastic against against defenders 1-on-1, this is how he was so successful in LSU's offense. Kansas City did a great job of putting him in these situations for the most part. But he struggled in the muck with those few gl carries.
With Mahomes, Hill and Kelce forcing attention from defenses, running backs should have a lot of room. Being way better than Darrel Williams in the open field, CEH will soon see the majority of the snaps I would think. Only thing is, KC might want to use Darrel Williams in GL situations or when milking the clock.
It's close between Dalvin and CEH, but I'd still take Kamara and his 90+ targets, 10 tds. Toss up between MT depends on league settings.
Certainly not putting him over Elliot after last night. What you saw was the difference between a reliable FF stud and a potentially very good RB. Still comfortable with all those WRs in front of him. I didn't see Cook play, but Kamara and Jacobs were beasts.
Maybe we should be this poll again after tonight. I suspect the recency bias that had CEH going 1.3 to 1.5 on Friday may have shifted.
I'm not saying he stinks or that there are 11 backs better than him. I have shares of him so I hope he is awesome (except for the leagues where I have Mahomes). My point was that while he had a great performance last Thursday, it was artificially high in our minds because we hadn't seen everyone else play. Many in here had him over Elliott and Kamara. Many forgot how dominate Adams can be in ppr. Along the same lines, if Adams had played Thursday, I bet his draft stock would have flown up the charts. If Elliot had balled like he did on Thursday, Barkley slides from consensus #2 and Elliot takes his spot.
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