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Exactly How Bad Will the Midterms be for the Democrats? (1 Viewer)

TripItUp

Footballguy
It's been one case of gross mismanagement after another in my opinion and the polling and political commentary appear to agree with me.  

Covid Mismanagement

Critical Race Theory

Crime Wave

Inflation/Economy Mismanagement

Immigration

Weak Foreign Policy Leadership

Give me your prediction for the House and the Senate 

Dems lose X amount of seats in the House

Dems lose X amount of seats in the Senate

Dems lose X amount of governors

 
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FairWarning

Footballguy
I would be surprised if they win 25% of the seats unless it’s a D stronghold (inner-city constitutes).  AOC rallying up the base now in Texas.   

 

Ruffrodys05

IBL Representative
TripItUp changed the title to Exactly How Bad Will the Midterms be for the Democrats?

Answer: Exactly not as bad as you'd like it to be.

 

RavenFan

Footballguy
Six months from now will tell the tale.

When covid is in the backgroun, inflation is back in check, gas prices are down bigly, GDP is booming, the stock market is booming, and unemployment is at pre-pandemic levels, we'll see what happens.

Obviously the Republican party will do as Trump tells them, but I have a feeling independents will be happy.

Heck, Biden already walked Putin back from invading.  Watch his approval ratings tick up from here. 

 

Sabertooth

Footballguy
Six months from now will tell the tale.

When covid is in the backgroun, inflation is back in check, gas prices are down bigly, GDP is booming, the stock market is booming, and unemployment is at pre-pandemic levels, we'll see what happens.

Obviously the Republican party will do as Trump tells them, but I have a feeling independents will be happy.

Heck, Biden already walked Putin back from invading.  Watch his approval ratings tick up from here. 
This is pretty much my thoughts too.  People will be back at sporting events and concerts unmasked.  
 

Trump is a problem on the right.  He appears to be promoting division within the party.  Two camps appear to be forming McConnell versus Trump.  But if Republicans have shown us anything, it’s that they know how to stick together.  

 
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STEADYMOBBIN 22

Footballguy
I don’t really know how you tell dead people anything or what you are talking about.  
Anytime anybody suggested that the pandemic was over or wasn’t the second coming of the plague they got railroaded for saying it. 
 

Now the narrative is changing because it’s politically advantageous. They have milked that cow for almost every last drop. 

 
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Sabertooth

Footballguy
Anytime anybody suggested that the pandemic was over or wasn’t the second coming of the plague they got railroaded for saying it. 
 

Now the narrative is changing because it’s politically advantageous. They have milked that cow for almost every last drop. 
Oh for sure.  

 

RavenFan

Footballguy
I think they have seen and gotten enough out of him and they are looking for the eject button. 
Based on what I've read here and at far right boards populated by Trump's base , white high school graduates or less educated, he still owns at least 50% of the Republican party. 

 

Sabertooth

Footballguy
Based on what I've read here and at far right boards populated by Trump's base , white high school graduates or less educated, he still owns at least 50% of the Republican party. 
Still.

Long time between now and November.  He’s a loose cannon who wants his voice heard.  He will resort to more and more extreme rhetoric.  

 

Sand

Footballguy
It's been one case of gross mismanagement after another in my opinion and the polling and political commentary appear to agree with me.  
Americans have very short memories.  Much closer to the election we're going to get an abortion decision from SCOTUS that could wildly impact the election.  If it isn't what the left wants the media will turn it into the next Jan. 6th-esque 24 hour news coverage item until November.

So this really isn't knowable until that decision is released.

 

TripItUp

Footballguy
Americans have very short memories.  Much closer to the election we're going to get an abortion decision from SCOTUS that could wildly impact the election.  If it isn't what the left wants the media will turn it into the next Jan. 6th-esque 24 hour news coverage item until November.

So this really isn't knowable until that decision is released.


Really good point here.   

 

Rubiobot

Footballguy
It will likely come down to the economy and inflation. But based on past history of midterms, the Republicans will easily win the House regardless. Not sure about the Senate.

 

knowledge dropper

Footballguy
Gerrymandering, ballot harvesting, lack of voter ID laws, and the fact they count the votes in many battleground areas are to their advantage.  Don’t count your chickens….

 

Insein

Footballguy
Doesn't matter what people think right now. It's what the media can get them to think by November. They've already started the "Lockdowns were Trump's idea" narrative. Biden will claim victory over Covid as a campaign promise achieved. 

Inflation can be explained away to simple people. 

Afghanistan is long forgotten by regular people. 

The rest they can use the tried and true tactics of my opponents are racists. 

Works on half the people most of the time. 

 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
Yawn...

When was the last time my district elected a Republican?  Don't know the answer, but the last non-Democrat was a member of the Whig party in 1843.

 

lazyike

Footballguy
Will Biden get inflation under control at all? Will Republicans distance themselves from Trump? The answer to both is not likely but I give the GOP a 20 House lead

 

TripItUp

Footballguy
Dems will lose control of senate and the house but it won`t be a total bloodbath.


I lean somewhere between this and bloodbath, but haven't ran the numbers exactly.   

As others have noted, if inflation and crime subside it could help soften the blow.

 
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lazyike

Footballguy
I lean somewhere between this and bloodbath, but haven't ran the numbers exactly.   

As others have noted, if inflation and crime subside it could help soften the blow.
If Russia doesn't invade Biden could get some credit for how he has handled this as well.

 

The General

Footballguy
Doesn't matter what people think right now. It's what the media can get them to think by November. They've already started the "Lockdowns were Trump's idea" narrative. Biden will claim victory over Covid as a campaign promise achieved. 

Inflation can be explained away to simple people. 

Afghanistan is long forgotten by regular people. 

The rest they can use the tried and true tactics of my opponents are racists. 

Works on half the people most of the time. 
It sounds as if you think Dems will not get smoked. That would be something. 

 

Insein

Footballguy
It sounds as if you think Dems will not get smoked. That would be something. 
I don't. They will lose some but this "red tsunami" people are predicting rarely happens. People have the attention span of a toddler these days and tribalists are voting their side regardless. There's nothing you can do to change their minds. So that leaves the moderates and most of them focus on what happened to them on the previous 2-3 months (sometimes weeks). So if the media and the Dems can successfully convince people that everything is going great, they won't lose that bad. 

 

joffer

Footballguy
It’s dominated the news for the past month even if they don’t know where it is. Seems like they should appreciate if what many have claimed is inevitable doesn’t happen.
played BlackJack with a guy in Vegas who couldn’t understand why Biden would want to invade the Ukraine.  He thought it was near Siberia.  :shrug:
 

”Seems like” is the operative phrase here.

 

GoBirds

Footballguy
If Russia doesn’t invade, they never planned to invade

imo
Oh come on, they were definitely on the brink but Biden talked Vlad out of it.   :lmao:
 

Nevermind Americans can’t afford groceries anymore, Russia is what will save Biden. 

 
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lazyike

Footballguy
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STEADYMOBBIN 22

Footballguy
If forced to speculate - Od guess we are giving Putin something in a trade to back down. We won’t hear about it for a couple of years though. 

 
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ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
How about we vote every incumbent out regardless of party. We need a reset
I have no idea what the final results will be (although I would bet on GOP retaking House), but one prediction I feel pretty confident in is that incumbents will do even better this year than they normally do. That's because for the most part, instead of using redistricting to flip seats, the parties are using them to shore up potentially vulnerable incumbents. That also likely means we'll see generally smaller majorities over the next decade, regardless of which party is in control.

 

timschochet

Footballguy
I think Biden will deserve credit if Russia doesn’t invade, because it will be because he convinced Germany to threaten to cancel the pipeline. Pretty simple. I don’t expect any conservative here to agree, but I would suggest that their positions on this issue is based less on the facts and more on their previously held opinions of Joe Biden. Just as many of us who despised Donald Trump refused to give him credit for anything good, they refuse to do the same with Biden. There are exceptions in both instances however. 
 

But none of this matters. Ukraine won’t move the voters one way or another. January 6 won’t move the voters. Inflation will. 
 

And beyond inflation, people are getting fed up with some stuff. They despise CRT in our schools, they’re sick and tired of hearing about race all the time. And they’re worried about crime. And they’re pissed about the border. 
 

I’m on the opposite side of most Republicans on all of the above issues, but I’d be a fool not to recognize where the public stands. The public is against me and against cultural liberals. We’re going to lose. Probably badly. I think it might be worse than a wave. 

 
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fruity pebbles

Footballguy
Can’t imagine it’s going to be good for them. It’s all about the economy, almost always is. Other than unemployment, I can’t think of a single positive thing happening in the economy right now. 

 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
And beyond inflation, people are getting fed up with some stuff. They despise CRT in our schools, they’re sick and tired of hearing about race all the time. And they’re worried about crime. And they’re pissed about the border. 

Im on the opposite side of most Republicans on all of the above issues, but I’d be a fool not to recognize where the public stands. The public is against me and against cultural liberals. We’re going to lose. Probably badly. I think it might be wise than a wave. 
I pretty much disagree with all of this analysis (with the exception of inflation).

In the end, it will mostly come down to Covid. If things feel like they're returning to something approaching normal, the Democrats will benefit. Maybe not enough to keep the House, but probably enough to avoid a wipeout. But if there's still an underlying level of anxiety, or another new variant that leads to another wave, it could get very ugly. 

 

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