Ezekiel Elliott is a mid first rounder? (1 Viewer)

[Tau837]

List of Rookie running backs who have scored 190 or more points in Non-ppr over the last 30 years.  190 would have been tied for RB5 with Gurley in 2015.  Looks like a rookie RB is worth a first round choice on average once a year.  If I was to bet on this years it would be Elliot.


1


Eddie Lacy


rb


2013


22


1


15


284


1178


4.15


11


35


257


7.34


0


209.5


2


Doug Martin


rb


2012


23


1


16


319


1454


4.56


11


49


472


9.63


1


264.6


3


Alfred Morris


rb


2012


24


1


16


335


1606


4.79


13


11


77


7.00


0


246.3


4


Trent Richardson


rb


2012


22


1


15


267


950


3.56


11


51


367


7.20


1


203.7


5


Matt Forte


rb


2008


23


1


16


316


1238


3.92


8


63


477


7.57


4


243.5


6


Chris Johnson


rb


2008


23


1


15


251


1228


4.89


9


43


260


6.05


1


208.8


7


Steve Slaton


rb


2008


22


1


16


268


1282


4.78


9


50


377


7.54


1


225.9


8


Adrian Peterson


rb


2007


22


1


14


238


1341


5.63


12


19


268


14.11


1


238.9


9


Maurice Jones-Drew


rb


2006


21


1


16


166


941


5.67


13


46


436


9.48


2


227.7


10


Willis McGahee


rb


2004


23


1


16


284


1128


3.97


13


22


169


7.68


0


207.7


11


Clinton Portis


rb


2002


21


1


16


273


1508


5.52


15


33


364


11.03


2


289.2


12


LaDainian Tomlinson


rb


2001


22


1


16


339


1236


3.65


10


59


367


6.22


0


220.3


13


Mike Anderson


rb


2000


27


1


14


297


1487


5.01


15


23


169


7.35


0


255.6


14


Jamal Lewis


rb


2000


21


1


16


309


1364


4.41


6


27


296


10.96


0


202.0


15


Edgerrin James


rb


1999


21


1


16


369


1553


4.21


13


62


586


9.45


4


315.9


16


Robert Edwards


rb


1998


24


1


16


291


1115


3.83


9


35


331


9.46


3


216.6


17


Fred Taylor


rb


1998


22


1


15


264


1223


4.63


14


44


421


9.57


3


266.4


18


Corey Dillon


rb


1997


23


1


16


233


1129


4.85


10


27


259


9.59


0


198.8


19


Karim Abdul-Jabbar


rb


1996


22


1


16


307


1116


3.64


11


23


139


6.04


0


191.5


20


Eddie George


rb


1996


23


1


16


335


1368


4.08


8


23


182


7.91


0


203.0


21


Terrell Davis


rb


1995


23


1


14


237


1117


4.71


7


49


367


7.49


1


196.4


22


Curtis Martin


rb


1995


22


1


16


368


1487


4.04


14


30


261


8.70


1


264.8


23


Marshall Faulk


rb


1994


21


1


16


314


1282


4.08


11


52


522


10.04


1


252.4


24


Jerome Bettis


rb


1993


21


1


16


294


1429


4.86


7


26


244


9.38


0


209.3


25


Ricky Watters


rb


1992


23


1


14


206


1013


4.92


9


43


405


9.42


2


207.8


26


Barry Sanders


rb


1989


21


1


15


280


1470


5.25


14


24


282


11.75


0


259.2


27


Ickey Woods


rb


1988


22


1


16


203


1066


5.25


15


21


199


9.48


0


216.5


28


Rueben Mayes


rb


1986


23


1


16


286


1353


4.73


8


17


96


5.65


0


192.9


29


Herschel Walker


rb


1986


24


1


16


151


737


4.88


12


76


837


11.01


2


241.4


30


Kevin Mack


rb


1985


23


1


16


222


1104


4.97


7


29


297


10.24


3


200.1

I must point out, however, that last year's non-PPR RB5 score of 190 points is abnormally low. The three preceding seasons, the RB5 score averaged around 241 points.

Still, this table proves that Elliott does not have to perform at a historic level to justify a first round pick, particularly a late first round pick.

I think the reason there are so many skeptics is because rookie RBs only posted 2 actual top 5 RB finishes in the last 7 seasons (Martin and Morris in 2012). But IMO that thinking is flawed. In that same span, how many RBs with talent graded as high as Elliott were drafted into a comparably great situation? Arguably none. But even if one wants to dispute that with a small number of names, it is by definition a sample size too small to be predictive.

 

[massraider]

The advantage owners of these other rookie backs had was they were able to get them with picks other than their 1st rounder. 

If Elliott finishes as the 3rd fantasy RB, he's totally worth it.  But if Latavius or Martin finishes as the 4th fantasy back,  he's more valuable.

David Johnson was so valuable because people got him for a song.  

 

[TripItUp]

So basically, in the history of fantasy football...only a few fantasy first round rookie RBs have been worth a first round pick.  Yes there are more that had good years, but that's out of the entire population of rookie RBs , hundreds and hundreds. 

The odds are heavily against his production justifying a first round pick.  Not to mention he's in a potential committee.

How is this not a glaring red flag? 

 

[Tau837]

The advantage owners of these other rookie backs had was they were able to get them with picks other than their 1st rounder. 

If Elliott finishes as the 3rd fantasy RB, he's totally worth it.  But if Latavius or Martin finishes as the 4th fantasy back,  he's more valuable.

David Johnson was so valuable because people got him for a song.  

Of course, that is a given. Maybe I've lost track of what is being discussed here. On merits, IMO Elliott seems to be worthy of being taken among the top 5 RBs drafted. Whether or not that is a mid first rounder, or a first rounder at all, depends on league scoring, lineup requirements, etc.

Yet because projections aren't foolproof, it is likely that RBs other than the first 5 drafted will finish in the top 5 at the position. The same is true at every position. Just like every year. Elliott is no different than any other first round pick in this regard.

 

[Tau837]

So basically, in the history of fantasy football...only a few fantasy first round rookie RBs have been worth a first round pick.  Yes there are more that had good years, but that's out of the entire population of rookie RBs , hundreds and hundreds. 

The odds are heavily against his production justifying a first round pick.  Not to mention he's in a potential committee.

How is this not a glaring red flag? 

You are mischaracterizing the odds if you are lumping Elliott in with hundreds of rookie RBs, or even with just the best of the RBs drafted in the last 5-10 years. The sample size of rookie RBs with his combination of talent and situation is too small a sample size (if not non-existent) to be predictive.

But perhaps your reference to him being in a potential committee illustrates that you see his situation completely differently. I see no potential for a committee, barring injury. Romo, Dez, and Witten, and, more importantly, Jerry Jones aren't getting any younger. The best RB will play and dominate touches. The best RB is Elliott.

A lot of you guys are overthinking this.

 

[Pipes]

So basically, in the history of fantasy football...only a few fantasy first round rookie RBs have been worth a first round pick.  Yes there are more that had good years, but that's out of the entire population of rookie RBs , hundreds and hundreds. 

The odds are heavily against his production justifying a first round pick.  Not to mention he's in a potential committee.

How is this not a glaring red flag? 

Again how many RB's with the talent of EE have be drafted into a situation like Dallas with 3 pro bowl lineman?  I can't recall a RB being drafted into a better situation maybe ever...at least in the past 20 years.

If you can't get a top 5 WR or Gronk or Gurley I'd take a shot on EE.  The rest of the RB's have question marks and I don't see a ton of difference between WR6 vs WR12 which you can get in the 2nd round.  Like Buzzbait said everyone is on the draft WR's in the first round now so the mid first round seems like the perfect time to go a different direction.

 

[Pipes]

Also why do people assume its "safe" to draft a WR in the first round and get the appropriate level of production for that draft spot? Dez, Demaryius and to a lesser extent Calvin were all 1st rounders last year that didn't live up to their adp while guys like DeAndre, Brandon Marshall, Amari and Allen Robinson were drafted in the 2nd round (at the absolute earliest) last year and outproduced the 3 I mentioned above as 1st rounders. 

 

[Eminence]

In early rankings. WHY? I understand he's running behind a great offensive line but that doesn't mean you can pencil him in for 1,200/10. This guy has a huge bust potential. I would much rather take a top tier WR. Thoughts?

PASS

 

[Bronco Billy]

 clearly ahead of the others on this list.

Curious emphatic statement. Could you please share how you know this to be true?

 

[massraider]

Of course, that is a given. Maybe I've lost track of what is being discussed here. On merits, IMO Elliott seems to be worthy of being taken among the top 5 RBs drafted. Whether or not that is a mid first rounder, or a first rounder at all, depends on league scoring, lineup requirements, etc.

Yet because projections aren't foolproof, it is likely that RBs other than the first 5 drafted will finish in the top 5 at the position. The same is true at every position. Just like every year. Elliott is no different than any other first round pick in this regard.

Yep,  my only point is that he's more of an unknown,  because he's a rookie.  

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Also why do people assume its "safe" to draft a WR in the first round and get the appropriate level of production for that draft spot? Dez, Demaryius and to a lesser extent Calvin were all 1st rounders last year that didn't live up to their adp while guys like DeAndre, Brandon Marshall, Amari and Allen Robinson were drafted in the 2nd round (at the absolute earliest) last year and outproduced the 3 I mentioned above as 1st rounders. 

I think people are also overlooking the fact that WRs not only carry their own risk of getting injured but also carry the risk of having their seasons ruined if their QBs get hurt. Dez, AJ Green and even Antonio Brown all stuggled when the team's backup QBs were under center. Brown still had a great season overall, but look at the weeks when Vick and Jones played.

 

[massraider]

It's actually a major testament to Elliott that if you are listing his negatives,  being a rookie or an unknown is #1, but what's #2?  

Romo's collarbone?

 

[Arodin]

It's actually a major testament to Elliott that if you are listing his negatives,  being a rookie or an unknown is #1, but what's #2?  

Romo's collarbone?

#1:  Unsure how the rookie will adjust to the lifestyle changes inherrent in becoming a professional.

#2:  Romo's propensity for missing time and the Cowboys' unwillingness to sign a competent backup.

#3:  Rookie wall may hit right around fantasy playoff time.

#4:  Alfred Morris, Darren McFadden, Arian Foster.

Thing is, you can probably make similar, or even more extensive lists for other favorite RBs.  Certainly Bell, Johnson and Miller have long lists of risks attached to them this season.  Other than Gurley and AP, Elliott's list looks as short/reasonable as anybody's.

 

[fightingillini]

I think people are also overlooking the fact that WRs not only carry their own risk of getting injured but also carry the risk of having their seasons ruined if their QBs get hurt. Dez, AJ Green and even Antonio Brown all stuggled when the team's backup QBs were under center. Brown still had a great season overall, but look at the weeks when Vick and Jones played.

Imagine what Elliott's year could look like when (I mean if) Romo goes down.  RBs can take a hit if their QB goes down as well.  I wouldn't say Elliott would be a complete bust if Romo goes down, but he definitely wouldn't return close to 1st round value.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Imagine what Elliott's year could look like when (I mean if) Romo goes down.  RBs can take a hit if their QB goes down as well.  I wouldn't say Elliott would be a complete bust if Romo goes down, but he definitely wouldn't return close to 1st round value.

I'm not really advocating for Elliot as a 1st rounder, although I don't think it is outrageous, but its a myth that a running game can not be successful without a strong passing game. McFadden was fine after Romo went down. 

 

[Pipes]

Curious emphatic statement. Could you please share how you know this to be true?

Um I have him ranked in a tier that's above other's on my list.  Of course it's opinion just like every post in his thread.

 

[Yenrub]

Knocking a special athlete for being a rookie is comical.

Tex 

Special athlete?

I know he is ranked pretty high as a RB but are people really putting him the special athlete category?

 

[TripItUp]

I wish there was a NFL fantasy futures market...I'd bet the farm fading Ezekiel Elliot's first round worthiness.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I have to thank everybody that has posted in this thread for opening my eyes to EE as a potential first round pick.   I have to be completely honest--when I first saw this thread in the forum--I was thinking that there was no way in heck I'd consider him in the first round--yet alone in the mid first round.   Trying to keep true to the title of the thread--it mentions that he's going in the "mid-first" round.  Assuming 10-12 team redraft leagues--that would put him somewhere in the 4-7 range.  I have to say that even after reading the  arguments for drafting him--I'm not sure I'd be willing to bet a pick in the 4-7 range on him.   However---I do think I'd consider him in the late first based on how my drafts go.   One question for both sides here: How deep do you look into his pre-season stats or "eye test"  in determining his fantasy value?  For example--if he absolutely goes nuts in the pre-season--I actually could see how a pick in the 4-7 range could be justified by drafters.  However--hypothetically--if he has a poor pre-season and doesn't look good--is he still worth a first round gamble?   Basically speaking---how much impact do you think the pre-season could have on his value in regards to downside?  

 

[ZWK]

I don't have detailed redraft rankings yet, but I'd be a bit hesitant to take Elliott that early just because he's a rookie and we haven't yet seen how the depth chart is going to shake out or how he looks against NFL competition. Rookies sometimes take time to get it - getting up to game speed, learning their assignments, pass blocking, fumbles, etc. The coaches have not yet clearly established him as the workhorse ahead of McFadden on the depth chart; he could wind up in more of a committee role if the coaches don't trust him in certain roles or circumstances.

I'm only a bit hesitant because, in Elliott's favor, he was unusually good at pass blocking and not fumbling. And he looks like a really good prospect as a runner. And McFadden + Morris don't look like very tough competition. And, despite their lack of RB talent, last year Dallas's lead RB put up stats that are probably worthy of a late 2nd rounder (276/1249/6 rushing + 38/313/0 receiving in 16 games, 5 games of Randle followed by 11 games of McFadden).

There could be a lot of movement in the top 10 RB rankings between now and the start of the season, with question marks about guys like Elliott, Charles (coming back from his ACL), Lacy (returning to form or not), Freeman (committee risk), McCoy (committee risk), and Rawls (committee risk and not yet established as a starter).

 

[ILUVBEER99]

This thread is basically saying don't take any RB in the mid-1st.  Can't really argue with that but it isn't specific to Elliott, it's more about the risk of any of the RB's.

 

[pantherclub]

It's actually a major testament to Elliott that if you are listing his negatives,  being a rookie or an unknown is #1, but what's #2?  

Romo's collarbone?

Never playing a down in the NFL is pretty much the biggie as you listed

 

[Thunderlips]

I don't have detailed redraft rankings yet, but I'd be a bit hesitant to take Elliott that early just because he's a rookie and we haven't yet seen how the depth chart is going to shake out or how he looks against NFL competition. Rookies sometimes take time to get it - getting up to game speed, learning their assignments, pass blocking, fumbles, etc. The coaches have not yet clearly established him as the workhorse ahead of McFadden on the depth chart; he could wind up in more of a committee role if the coaches don't trust him in certain roles or circumstances.

I'm only a bit hesitant because, in Elliott's favor, he was unusually good at pass blocking and not fumbling. And he looks like a really good prospect as a runner. And McFadden + Morris don't look like very tough competition. And, despite their lack of RB talent, last year Dallas's lead RB put up stats that are probably worthy of a late 2nd rounder (276/1249/6 rushing + 38/313/0 receiving in 16 games, 5 games of Randle followed by 11 games of McFadden).

There could be a lot of movement in the top 10 RB rankings between now and the start of the season, with question marks about guys like Elliott, Charles (coming back from his ACL), Lacy (returning to form or not), Freeman (committee risk), McCoy (committee risk), and Rawls (committee risk and not yet established as a starter).

I don't know Jerry Jones personally, but I think I'm confident enough in knowing that JJ didn't draft EE to sit on the bench behind McFadden.  JJ definitely seems like the kind of guy who loves to show off his new toys.

I do agree with the purely analytic mind that there's no real upside in drafting EE in the first round right now....before any real (or even preseason) NFL experience.  But...it's my hunch that once the preseason starts.....the talent he shows and the rhetoric from the coaching staff will demand a person who wants him to spend a mid first to mid second pick. 

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I remember when AP was drafted and everyone worried that he would sit behind Chester Taylor the whole year.  AP had 1600 total yards and 13 TDs his rookie year.  In 14 games.

Not really worried about McFadden.  Does that mean Zeke will be AP?  Of course not.  

 

[massraider]

This thread is basically saying don't take any RB in the mid-1st.  Can't really argue with that but it isn't specific to Elliott, it's more about the risk of any of the RB's.

Any other back that goes in the 1st round has performed at the NFL level. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

This thread is basically saying don't take any RB in the mid-1st.  Can't really argue with that but it isn't specific to Elliott, it's more about the risk of any of the RB's.

I don't believe that is accurate

 

[Jrodicus]

Yeah I remember people saying the same thing when I drafted Randy moss in his rookie year...1,300 yards and 17 touchdowns later guess who had the last laugh. McFadden sucks and he had a huge season behind that line... Do you really think Elliot is less talented? Should PIN this thread as barring an injury, Elliot is going to have a HUGE season. And no I am not a cowboy fan.

You drafted Moss in the first round?

 

[pantherclub]

Thats not really his value though dude

 

[Ilov80s]

I remember when AP was drafted and everyone worried that he would sit behind Chester Taylor the whole year.  AP had 1600 total yards and 13 TDs his rookie year.  In 14 games.

Not really worried about McFadden.  Does that mean Zeke will be AP?  Of course not.  

I remember AP looked like a superstar in preseason. I think preseason will be huge on dictating where EE goes. If he balls out, he will be a top 5 pick. If he looks like Gordon did last preseason then he falls back into the 2nd.

 

[pantherclub]

I remember AP looked like a superstar in preseason. I think preseason will be huge on dictating where EE goes. If he balls out, he will be a top 5 pick. If he looks like Gordon did last preseason then he falls back into the 2nd.

Even if he looks amazing in preseason I seriously doubt in big money leagues he is going top 5.  First round maybe but top 5 would be uber crazy.  That means you are passing up some top shelf studs for a rookie.

 

[Ilov80s]

Even if he looks amazing in preseason I seriously doubt in big money leagues he is going top 5.  First round maybe but top 5 would be uber crazy.  That means you are passing up some top shelf studs for a rookie.

There are already analysts ranking him as a top 5 pick. His ADP is 9 with a 2.4 SD so that is already really close to top 5. I really do believe the hype is huge and he looks like the real deal in preseason, it only grows. I am not saying I would do it, but I believe it is possible. Remember what one jump cut did for Ameer.

 

[Pipes]

It amazes me that people are "down" on EE for being a rookie yet love David Johnson. DJ has had 1 great game and a couple of pretty good games so far in the NFL.  Pretty limited sample size for me to rank him so high yet I'm consistently seeing him ranked in the top 3 and #1 by some.  I still contend that beginning with pick 6 EE should be entering the equation. 

 

[Hawkeye21]

It amazes me that people are "down" on EE for being a rookie yet love David Johnson. DJ has had 1 great game and a couple of pretty good games so far in the NFL.  Pretty limited sample size for me to rank him so high yet I'm consistently seeing him ranked in the top 3 and #1 by some.  I still contend that beginning with pick 6 EE should be entering the equation. 

Being in the NFL for a full season regardless of not starting every game means a lot to me.  That being said, I wouldn't take Johnson at his current draft position either.  There really aren't any RBs that I really love at their draft position in the first.  This is the biggest reason why I find myself taking a WR in the first almost every time.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Being in the NFL for a full season regardless of not starting every game means a lot to me.  That being said, I wouldn't take Johnson at his current draft position either.  There really aren't any RBs that I really love at their draft position in the first.  This is the biggest reason why I find myself taking a WR in the first almost every time.

I'm not trying to single you out here because this is something that a lot of people believe, and it's a point I've been trying to get across for a while.  But this, and much of the lingo in this thread, is iffy logic in my opinion.  Falling back on a fake notion of safety at the expense of actual fantasy production.

Here are the 5 highest drafted rookie RBs in redraft leagues going back the last 10 years.

Trent Richardson
Doug Martin
Ryan Mathews
Adrian Peterson
Marshawn Lynch

4 of the 5 finished as top 10 RBs that season.

Meanwhile, here are the 5 highest drafted RBs similar to David Johnson (took over later in their rookie year and finished strong).

CJ Anderson
Jeremy Hill
Montee Ball
DeMarco Murray
Zac Stacy

0 of the 5 finished as top 10 RBs that season, and only Hill even finished as a top 20 RB.

If a rookie has enough of a combination of talent and opportunity to be drafted highly (say the first 3 rounds), the chances are fairly good that he will give you a good return.  Phrases like "has never played a down in the NFL" or "has never proven it on the field" with regards to rookies, and likewise "has proven it on the field" with regards to the half-season 2nd year guys are borderline useless or even harmful.  Just comforting prose that leads people to draft significantly worse players often at higher costs (the ADP of the guys on that second list was much higher than the ADP of the rookies).

Maybe David Johnson and EE will buck the trends, but right now the trends very much point to EE being worth that early pick and DJ not being worth it.  It also can't be understated that you could easily make the argument that EE has a better combination of talent+situation (not both individually, but the combination of the two) than any of those other guys drafted early that finished as top 10 RBs (and his ADP reflects that, as it is higher than any of them).

If someone wants to take someone that's been performing great for several years over someone with a combination of great pedigree and situation like EE, then by all means that's certainly fair.  But someone that's done it for several games?  Those several games are close to worthless in comparing the two.  Less than worthless really, because it leads to people overvaluing the importance of those few games compared to the talent+situation of the other guy.  Hence the two contrasting lists up above.

Elliot is a MUCH safer pick than David Johnson, in spite of all the useless lingo and catch phrases about the number of NFL snaps each of them have played.

 

[BigTex]

I wonder how many of you who are speaking against EE in the 1st round are actually in position to draft him. 

Just wondering, 

Tex

 

[Hawkeye21]

I'm not trying to single you out here because this is something that a lot of people believe, and it's a point I've been trying to get across for a while.  But this, and much of the lingo in this thread, is iffy logic in my opinion.  Falling back on a fake notion of safety at the expense of actual fantasy production.

Here are the 5 highest drafted rookie RBs in redraft leagues going back the last 10 years.

Trent Richardson
Doug Martin
Ryan Mathews
Adrian Peterson
Marshawn Lynch

4 of the 5 finished as top 10 RBs that season.

Meanwhile, here are the 5 highest drafted RBs similar to David Johnson (took over later in their rookie year and finished strong).

CJ Anderson
Jeremy Hill
Montee Ball
DeMarco Murray
Zac Stacy

0 of the 5 finished as top 10 RBs that season, and only Hill even finished as a top 20 RB.

If a rookie has enough of a combination of talent and opportunity to be drafted highly (say the first 3 rounds), the chances are fairly good that he will give you a good return.  Phrases like "has never played a down in the NFL" or "has never proven it on the field" with regards to rookies, and likewise "has proven it on the field" with regards to the half-season 2nd year guys are borderline useless or even harmful.  Just comforting prose that leads people to draft significantly worse players often at higher costs (the ADP of the guys on that second list was much higher than the ADP of the rookies).

Maybe David Johnson and EE will buck the trends, but right now the trends very much point to EE being worth that early pick and DJ not being worth it.  It also can't be understated that you could easily make the argument that EE has a better combination of talent+situation (not both individually, but the combination of the two) than any of those other guys drafted early that finished as top 10 RBs (and his ADP reflects that, as it is higher than any of them).

If someone wants to take someone that's been performing great for several years over someone with a combination of great pedigree and situation like EE, then by all means that's certainly fair.  But someone that's done it for several games?  Those several games are close to worthless in comparing the two.  Less than worthless really, because it leads to people overvaluing the importance of those few games compared to the talent+situation of the other guy.  Hence the two contrasting lists up above.

Elliot is a MUCH safer pick than David Johnson, in spite of all the useless lingo and catch phrases about the number of NFL snaps each of them have played.

The thing about those rookies that did well is that they were not getting drafted in the middle of the first round.  I don't want to use my first pick on Elliott or Johnson.

 

[Hawkeye21]

I wonder how many of you who are speaking against EE in the 1st round are actually in position to draft him. 

Just wondering, 

Tex

I'm doing a mock draft on another forum and I did not take him with the 8th pick.  In fact, he didn't get drafted in the first round at all.  This is a full PPR mock FYI.  He went 2.02 which is more appropriate for me.

Surprisingly David Johnson went 1.04 as the first RB taken overall.

 

[TripItUp]

I wonder how many of you who are speaking against EE in the 1st round are actually in position to draft him. 

Just wondering, 

Tex

I have a first round pick in all of my leagues...of course I'm in a position to draft him. 

 

[Tau837]

I'm not trying to single you out here because this is something that a lot of people believe, and it's a point I've been trying to get across for a while.  But this, and much of the lingo in this thread, is iffy logic in my opinion.  Falling back on a fake notion of safety at the expense of actual fantasy production.

Here are the 5 highest drafted rookie RBs in redraft leagues going back the last 10 years.

Trent Richardson
Doug Martin
Ryan Mathews
Adrian Peterson
Marshawn Lynch

4 of the 5 finished as top 10 RBs that season.

Meanwhile, here are the 5 highest drafted RBs similar to David Johnson (took over later in their rookie year and finished strong).

CJ Anderson
Jeremy Hill
Montee Ball
DeMarco Murray
Zac Stacy

0 of the 5 finished as top 10 RBs that season, and only Hill even finished as a top 20 RB.

If a rookie has enough of a combination of talent and opportunity to be drafted highly (say the first 3 rounds), the chances are fairly good that he will give you a good return.  Phrases like "has never played a down in the NFL" or "has never proven it on the field" with regards to rookies, and likewise "has proven it on the field" with regards to the half-season 2nd year guys are borderline useless or even harmful.  Just comforting prose that leads people to draft significantly worse players often at higher costs (the ADP of the guys on that second list was much higher than the ADP of the rookies).

Maybe David Johnson and EE will buck the trends, but right now the trends very much point to EE being worth that early pick and DJ not being worth it.  It also can't be understated that you could easily make the argument that EE has a better combination of talent+situation (not both individually, but the combination of the two) than any of those other guys drafted early that finished as top 10 RBs (and his ADP reflects that, as it is higher than any of them).

If someone wants to take someone that's been performing great for several years over someone with a combination of great pedigree and situation like EE, then by all means that's certainly fair.  But someone that's done it for several games?  Those several games are close to worthless in comparing the two.  Less than worthless really, because it leads to people overvaluing the importance of those few games compared to the talent+situation of the other guy.  Hence the two contrasting lists up above.

Elliot is a MUCH safer pick than David Johnson, in spite of all the useless lingo and catch phrases about the number of NFL snaps each of them have played.

 

[TripItUp]

The thing about those rookies that did well is that they were not getting drafted in the middle of the first round.  

funny how that was left out.

 

[TripItUp]

It amazes me that people are "down" on EE for being a rookie yet love David Johnson. DJ has had 1 great game and a couple of pretty good games so far in the NFL.  Pretty limited sample size for me to rank him so high yet I'm consistently seeing him ranked in the top 3 and #1 by some. 

A) You have no idea how the Cowboys plan to utilize EE

B) You have no idea how EE will adapt to the pro game

C) We do know that DJ can perform at a very high level in the pro game

D) we know that the Cards want to make DJ their workhorse

That's what we know.  I'm shocked this is even a conversation.

 

[Toomuchnv]

Honest question....if Dallas didnt draft EE would McFadden be considered a 1st round pick this year?

 

[TripItUp]

Honest question....if Dallas didnt draft EE would McFadden be considered a 1st round pick this year?

not even close

 

[Toomuchnv]

not even close

Which is why EE shouldnt be picked in the 1st round.  Especially in redraft leagues.

 

[TripItUp]

Which is why EE shouldnt be picked in the 1st round.  Especially in redraft leagues.

EE is going to have more carries and average 9 YPC, more than he did at Ohio State where they play cupcake schedules.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

funny how that was left out.

Uh, that's a point in FAVOR of Elliot, not against him.

Rookie RBs with an ADP in the first 3 rounds of fantasy redrafts have an enormously high hit rate for finishing as a top 10 RB.  The fact that Elliot's ADP is the highest of that group is even more in support that's he's likely to continue the trend and finish in the top 10, not against it.

Some people are just too stubborn for their own good and refuse to let actual statistics and real world production (or lack thereof) distract them from what seems to make such pretty rosy sense in their head.  Rookie RBs drafted high in redraft finish in the top ten a very HIGH percentage of the time.  Second year RBs who only started for half a season and played well enough in that half season to be drafted early in year two finish in the top 10 a very LOW percentage of the time.  Yet still, people see one guy from each category and think "I'll take the guy from category 2, the one where the guys almost always bust, because he's a safer pick".  

 

[TripItUp]

Uh, that's a point in FAVOR of Elliot, not against him.

Rookie RBs with an ADP in the first 3 rounds of fantasy redrafts have an enormously high hit rate for finishing as a top 10 RB.  The fact that Elliot's ADP is the highest of that group is even more in support that's he's likely to continue the trend and finish in the top 10, not against it.

Or it could mean he is the most overvalued rookie RB of the group.  Which is my contention. 

Side Question, if you draft EE at #6 overall and he finishes as the #10 RB, is that considered a "good pick"?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Or it could mean he is the most overvalued rookie RB of the group.  Which is my contention. 

Side Question, if you draft EE at #6 overall and he finishes as the #10 RB, is that considered a "good pick"?

None of that rookie RB group ended up being "overvalued" except Mathews.

To answer your side question, last year's 1st round RBs finished as RB2, RB47, RB32, RB51, RB31, and RB20.  So yeah, while not great finishing as RB10 is pretty decent relative to what most people are getting out of the early RB picks.

It's also worth noting that 2 of those 5 rookie RBs finished as top 5 RBs which I believe is the better historical average of all RBs drafted in the 1st round including guys that have been doing it for 5 years.

The bottom line is that when guys have enough of that rare combination of good talent and great situation to be drafted early in redraft leagues they are actually pretty safe picks relative to the rest of the volatile RB landscape (and especially relative to those second year guys I was mentioning).  If those 5 highest drafted rookie RBs were drafted in the 1st round those years you could pretty fairly say that 4 of the 5 provided reasonable value and 2 of the 5 provided great value there.  That's pretty in line if not a little better than any typical 1st round RB.

This year the 1st round choices all have question marks.  Bell, Gurley, Peterson, Zeke, Johnson.  The only one of them that's had multiple top 10 seasons (the best barometer for finding continued success, though still not perfect) has his own major major question mark in his age.  Johnson I've touched on.  Bell has been banged up.  Personally I would take Gurley and Bell over Zeke, it'd be a toss-up for me between Zeke and Peterson (Peterson will suddenly fall off a cliff at some point soon and there is very often no indication of this happening in the season prior), and I would take Zeke over Johnson for the reasons I've outlined in the posts above.

 

[Pipes]

C) We do know that DJ can perform at a very high level in the pro game

That's what we know.  I'm shocked this is even a conversation.

We know this?  He has 1 game over 100 yards rushing last year.

 

[TripItUp]

We know this? 

Yes, we do.