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Ezekiel Elliott is a mid first rounder? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ponchsox
- Start date
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I did just 2 days ago in this thread.sure it does, 210 carries seems like a fair projection for a rookie.
Emmit Smith, one of the most durable RBs in NFL history and leading NFL rusher in history had 241 carries his rookie year.
Is anybody around here projecting 300 carries?
Looking back a bit further. I ran a query that found 58 RB to have 200 or more carries in their rookie season. That averages out to 2.1 RB per year that do this.
Only 10 of them had 300 or more carries, Most of them have not been recent, except for Doug Martin and Alfred Morris.
250 rushing attempts would be a safer projection. That is usually a cap I will place on rookie RB unless the situation is very favorable and the player is very good.
Well Elliots situation and his talent are very good. I don't see any reason why he couldn't or shouldn't be used as much as Doug Martin was.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
That seems fair, I'm just not convinced the workload will be that heavy. I see that as best case scenario numbers...not likely numbers.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
In 61 career games, Miller has had 15 or more carries 15 times and 20 carries twice. I like him in HOU, but we don't know if he can hold up if they use him as a heavy carry back.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Do you have any RB projected for more than 240 rushing attempts in 2016?
If so who are they?
TripItUp
Footballguy
AP, Gurley, Bell, Johnson, Miller, Lacy, Anderson, Martin, Forte, Rawls, Gore, L. Murray
TripItUp
Footballguy
Would you bet even money that EE has at least 300 carries at the end of the season?
Because if you will, I'll take some of that action.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
In the past 20 years, there have been a number of Top 10 overall NFL draft picks that hit 240 carries as a rookie . . .
Trent Richardson 267
Cadillac Williams 290
Tomlinson 339
Jamal Lewis 309
Edge 369
Ricky Williams 253
Fred Taylor 254
ADP just missed with 238. I don't think 240 will end up being off by much for EE (if he avoids injury).
Trent Richardson 267
Cadillac Williams 290
Tomlinson 339
Jamal Lewis 309
Edge 369
Ricky Williams 253
Fred Taylor 254
ADP just missed with 238. I don't think 240 will end up being off by much for EE (if he avoids injury).
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The only back with 300 carries last year was ADP. Predicting anyone to get that many is bold in this day and age.
TripItUp
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
I have him projected at 17 carries per game. 4 more per game than EE.
Durability is a risk for both IMHO.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
You can (and should) say that about anyone. Why is Elliott more of an injury risk than other RBs? As we have reviewed in this and other threads, David Johnson has a month long track record. Miller has only seen limited carries. Bell and Charles are starting banged up. Forte is old (and IMO will be splitting the workload a lot more than people think). Injuries are part of the game.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
While that is true last season was really anomalous for RB in 2015. I don't think that is an accurate reflection of what is normal or as a basis for projections moving forward.
Not many RB have had the workload of 18.75 carries per game over the course of an entire season recently,
Five RB did have that many or more carries in 2012. Two of those players were rookies when they did it.
I don't think it is an unrealistic expectation at all.
TripItUp
Footballguy
yes, but not all risk is created equal and we simply don't know how durable E.E. will be. It's a huge question mark for any rookie IMHO.
At the end of the day, we're only 30 carries apart so we may be nitpicking but I seem to more heavily discount a few factors when projecting for EE.
1) he's a rookie
2) he has capable backups
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
There have been 12 backs in the past 5 years hit 300 carries in a season. That's 2.4 per season. Not great odds just taking the entire field, let alone an individual player. Not saying EE won't get 300 carries, but I think that may be on the high side.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I don't wager with strangers on the internet, especially not a suckers bet like your suggestion. If Elliot were to miss one game that basically throws off reaching 300 rushing attempts.
I am not projecting injuries.
I tell you what though, I think Elliots rushing attempts will be closer to 300 than they will be to 210 and if I offered you a wager that Elliot would have more than 210 rushing attempts you would be a fool to take it.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Ahhhhhh....a major difference between you and I.
I incorporate risk(such as injury) into my rankings. You do not.
I look at my projections as an over/under. Your projections appear closer to "best case scenario" since you don't incorporate risk.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Fine cya at the end of the season. If Elliot has 256 or more carries I win, if he has 254 or less carries you win. 255 its a tie.
What are these risks you are projecting here? How many games do you think Elliot will miss? Why?
If I was ever going to project a rookie RB to have 300 carries this would be it.
What are these risks you are projecting here? How many games do you think Elliot will miss? Why?
If I was ever going to project a rookie RB to have 300 carries this would be it.
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AJ Green, then looking at Elliott, Freeman or Miller to possibly survive the turn before committing fully to a WR-heavy start.
LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
I will bet you $150 that Elliot gets 250 or more carries this regular season. If I lose, I'll PayPal or send you a check; ditto if you lose. Interested?
TripItUp
Footballguy
I don't know you, so I can't trust you. Is there a place we can safely hold the money? Also, the number is 255, not 250.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Lol. His best case scenario is 300+ carries. How could his best case be fewer carries than many other rookie RBs have had?
LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
I am honest. I play in Tim's league over in the FFA. I'll trust you. If you win, I will pay. If I win, I will hope you pay.
Tau837
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
"lol", because he has suitable backups.
go back and look at the backups of those 300 carrie rookie RBs...
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LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
You said this about Miller and Elliot: "I have him projected at 17 carries per game. 4 more per game than EE."
At 13 carries a game, I'd think you'd be willing to put $ on anything lower than 209 if he stays healthy...
Anyways, I'm fine with 255. If Elliot has 255 or more carries during the regular season, you owe me $150, otherwise I owe you $150. Payable by Jan 1st; you interested?
TripItUp
Footballguy
definitely interested just negative EV right now, since I know I will pay, have no idea if you will.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
What do you have to lose? If you lose, and are an honest person, you pay me. If you win and I'm honest, you get $150. If you win and I'm not honest, you still don't lose anything. I don't see what negative EV you are talking about.
If I lose and don't pay, then you can go and collect any money I might win in Tim's league over in the FFA. Even if I don't win anything there and stiff you (which I won't do), then you can have Joe or whoever perma-ban me from here. I'm confident in what I think Elliot will do this season. You've been talking a big game about him being overrated since page 1, but won't even verbally agree to friendly wager?
It'll be fun, come on.
TripItUp
Footballguy
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
Cant' you guys use league safe with a third party to ensure the winner gets 2 votes to 1, or some other similar site.
LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
If you know of some (easy) method to hold the $ until the end of the season, I'll pay now.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Interesting. In my non-PPR league, that would have been good last year for #3 RB in total points, #8 RB in points per game.
I'm sure it looks different in PPR, but whatever.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Love to see friendly wagers! You can use LeagueSafe but both parties have been on the forum long enough for trust in this case IMO. I personally think EE will have fewer carries than most think because rookies usually disappoint and McFadden and Morris are there to ease the load. No reason to over commit to EE with three capable RBs.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
I was curious about how much the Cowboys run the ball and over the last 10 years there were only two RBs that carried the ball over 250 times, Julius Jones and Murray. Murray's season of almost 400 carries was just abnormal especially when he never carried it over 220 times with the Cowboys before that.
I just don't see the Cowboys riding their rookie into the ground right away unless they absolutely have to. I would take the under 255 attempts. I agree his ceiling is about 300 but I wouldn't expect it.
I just don't see the Cowboys riding their rookie into the ground right away unless they absolutely have to. I would take the under 255 attempts. I agree his ceiling is about 300 but I wouldn't expect it.
Tau837
Footballguy
Sure, he has capable backups. You said you think 240 carries is his best case. "Best case" implies you think there is zero chance he will exceed 240 carries, despite the fact that other recent rookie RBs have done so. If you didn't mean it that way, you should admit that you misspoke. If you do believe that, IMO that undermines your credibility on the subject.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I'm not sure I'd put much stock in that...
Darren McFadden
Demarco Murray
Felix Jones
Marion Barber
Julius Jones
That's not exactly a list of the most durable RBs in the world. The Jones' had a couple 16 game seasons, but all those guys seemed like players that were always battling injuries.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
You're right. We have no idea how the highest rated RB to enter the NFL in 10 years (since ADP) will do playing behind the league's best run blocking line. And that team produced a back with 2261 yfs and 13 TDs two seasons ago. And that offensive line only got better since then. Nope, we have no idea what could happen.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
How else do you explain these folks that think DAL is going to be some sort of RBBC?tangfoot said:
BoltBacker
Footballguy
And after you count the number of receptions, how many total touches would you take the under?Hawkeye21 said:
Tau837
Footballguy
ponchsox
Footballguy
How do we know they won't ease him into the starting role? I don't think he's a lock to be a bell cow early on. And rookies can struggle despite being a hot prospect out of college. I would much rather take a WR like Hopkins over Elliot around the middle first round. Early second? Sure I'll take him.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I already posted where Elliott is going on average (10th). If things play out exactly to ADP (which rarely happens), Hopkins would already be gone. I posted earlier who the options "should" be left at the 10 spot.
But just to emphasize that there is risk in all players, we have no idea how Hopkins will do with Osweiler, with Miller in the fold, and Fuller added. I'll take the under on 192 targets again.
As for EE, Dallas had other more pressing needs and positions to strengthen that RB. Yet they took him anyway. I have him down for essentially 15 carries and 2 receptions a game. Basically, I am offloading what McFadden had last year almost verbatim to Elliott, only with more TDs. And DMAC ended last year as RB 13. Call me crazy, but IMO the Dallas offense should do much better with Romo and Bryant back in the line up. Give Elliott DMAC's numbers but 10 TDs instead of 3, and he would have ranked as the RB 4 last year.
I am not one of the ones giving EE 300 carries and 60 receptions an insane amount of TDs. Like I said already, people are over thinking this.
