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Ezekiel Elliott is a mid first rounder? (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter ponchsox
- Start date
Ilov80s
Footballguy
It's a major boom/bust play similar to Montee Ball a couple years ago. I think everyone believes Zeke is a much much better prospect than Ball. McFadden is hurt already. Once McFadden replaced Randle, his median ppg was about 11.5. He had a 4.6 ypc. It's pretty easy to imagine that Zeke is a better player and can out perform those numbers. It's risky and I'm not I would pull the trigger on Elliot before guys like Charles, Green, or Gronk but I get the upside play there.
georg013
Footballguy
Look at the options at RB.
Gurley (questionable offense and role in the passing game but still a BEAST)
Bell (coming off injury)
DJ (large chunk of production came against a couple of teams)
Peterson (old)
Martin (fool me once shame on you... you see you can't fool me twice)
Freeman (fool's gold IMO)
Charles (old and injured)
Lacy (overweight and underperforming)
Miller (hasn't been used properly since joining the league)
In comes Elliot (young, unproven=question marks unconfirmed, great offense, past success (Murray), bell cow with Mr. Glass behind him)
I don't subscribe to the hype but I probably would have if I had a chance to draft him. He "could" be an elite option for many years to come on the perfect team. Why not roll the dice? There aren't many shiny new toys like this available. The other running backs drafted this year (I believe) are nothing but place holders until 2017. But I am speaking from a dynasty perspective. Redraft might be different.
Gurley (questionable offense and role in the passing game but still a BEAST)
Bell (coming off injury)
DJ (large chunk of production came against a couple of teams)
Peterson (old)
Martin (fool me once shame on you... you see you can't fool me twice)
Freeman (fool's gold IMO)
Charles (old and injured)
Lacy (overweight and underperforming)
Miller (hasn't been used properly since joining the league)
In comes Elliot (young, unproven=question marks unconfirmed, great offense, past success (Murray), bell cow with Mr. Glass behind him)
I don't subscribe to the hype but I probably would have if I had a chance to draft him. He "could" be an elite option for many years to come on the perfect team. Why not roll the dice? There aren't many shiny new toys like this available. The other running backs drafted this year (I believe) are nothing but place holders until 2017. But I am speaking from a dynasty perspective. Redraft might be different.
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He has very little bust potential. If he's available after the first round of your draft, you're drafting with cantaloupe.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Believe the Elliott hype. Consecutive 1800 yard rush seasons at Ohio St.tore apart supposedly top rated defenses in the biggest games - see Oregon and 'Bama. Absolutely lit it up on the game's biggest stage..225lb wrecking ball with wheels .easy schedule for Dallas. Romo is back.Dez is back. This offense will score plenty of pts and gobble up yardage. They were a hair away from the SB two years ago with a run heavy approach and you will see that again with Zeke. Montee Ball and others had mixed reviews pre NFL draft.NOT Zeke..he was gushed over by everyone. Pencil him for that 1200/10 EASILY...
He's going to be better than Portis was in his rookie year of 1500/15.take it to the bank..
Disclosure.. I do not own him.not yet anyways.
He's going to be better than Portis was in his rookie year of 1500/15.take it to the bank..
Disclosure.. I do not own him.not yet anyways.
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Thunderlips
Footballguy
It's a combination of talent, line talent and team situation and uncertainty at the RB position in the league as a whole. IF you're insistent on going RB in the first round.....who could you CLEARLY say you'd take over him?*
* Don't get me wrong, I think it speaks as much about the dearth of talent at the RB position as it does his overall talent.
* Don't get me wrong, I think it speaks as much about the dearth of talent at the RB position as it does his overall talent.
pantherclub
Footballguy
pantherclub
Footballguy
I have watched football and played fantasy wayyyyy too long to know that any player, a rookie RB nonetheless, "has very little bust potential". Drafting him in the first round is probably a good way to put your fantasy team behind the 8 ball.
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You keep believing that, and I'll keep hoping the people in my leagues follow your lead.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Yeah. The hype reminds me of the way people were gushing over can't miss Trent Richardson his rookie year.
You can't win your league in the first round, but you sure can lose it. I'd let someone else take the risk.
Da Man
Footballguy
Yeah I remember people saying the same thing when I drafted Randy moss in his rookie year...1,300 yards and 17 touchdowns later guess who had the last laugh. McFadden sucks and he had a huge season behind that line... Do you really think Elliot is less talented? Should PIN this thread as barring an injury, Elliot is going to have a HUGE season. And no I am not a cowboy fan.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Okay, but Randy Moss wasn't going in the first round, or anywhere near the first round, in his rookie year. Much more risk when you take a rookie in the first round than the seventh or eight.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Not at RB. They all have question marks. Outside of Gurley and maybe Bell depending on his injury the RB field is a mess. Elliott is as good of a gamble as any other RB's.
The elite WR's are safer, so would probably take one of them mid 1st over Elliott, but if someone wants an elite RB the pickings are very slim.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I agree. WRs are generally the wiser way to start your team these days, but if I'm picking at, or near the turn, I might consider EzE with my second pick. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he finishes as the top RB, let alone in the top 5.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Right, all of those tier 1 WRs and Gronk should be going ahead of Elliot.
I have Elliot as the 9th RB making Elliot one of the most overvalued players of 2016.
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abbottjamesr
Footballguy
I think a lot of Elliot's hype comes from people looking at the 2014 Dallas team and thinking it will be repeated.
479 Rushes for 2287 yards and 16 tds, with 80 receptions for 657 yards.
Then they say even if he only gets 60% of it that is still 287/1372/10 rushing with 48/394 receiving and pencil him in for top 5 RB numbers with 2014 Murray upside.
I get it. getting the lions share of 2900 yards and 16 tds makes me salivate too.
If he is getting full starter reps in preseason games he should and will be a mid first round pick or higher.
479 Rushes for 2287 yards and 16 tds, with 80 receptions for 657 yards.
Then they say even if he only gets 60% of it that is still 287/1372/10 rushing with 48/394 receiving and pencil him in for top 5 RB numbers with 2014 Murray upside.
I get it. getting the lions share of 2900 yards and 16 tds makes me salivate too.
If he is getting full starter reps in preseason games he should and will be a mid first round pick or higher.
WheelsUp
Footballguy
Pete, relax my friend. Taking a player who has never played a down in the NFL in the middle of the first in lunacy.
Taking a RB in this generation in the first is going to become rare, taking unproven never before stepping on an NFL field in the first?
I wont say that person has a head of a melon as you put it if they draft Elliott in the first, but the person who thinks that has a better chance of fitting that beautiful graphic, then those who wont. Truth hurts. Elliott is a great talent, but talent doesnt always translate. Risk reward type thing.
Taking a RB in this generation in the first is going to become rare, taking unproven never before stepping on an NFL field in the first?
I wont say that person has a head of a melon as you put it if they draft Elliott in the first, but the person who thinks that has a better chance of fitting that beautiful graphic, then those who wont. Truth hurts. Elliott is a great talent, but talent doesnt always translate. Risk reward type thing.
fightingillini
Footballguy
I can see somone taking Elliott in the 1st, but it won't be me. I need to see if all of his talent translates to the NFL. It should, but using your 1st round pick to bet on it is crazy.
I would spend an early 2nd on him, so I likely won't get him on any of my teams.
I would spend an early 2nd on him, so I likely won't get him on any of my teams.
steelers1080
Footballguy
He's a lotto ticket in a year with uncertainty at the RB position. Doesn't mean you should draft him in the 1st, just that someone probably will.
Shutout
Footballguy
It's a good thing they built that ark in Kentucky because there are going to be a lot of tears shed on this one. Paying that price sets a lot of owners up for such a small margin of success. He simply MUST be about as good as the best of the best. Otherwise, even as a great back in the top 12-15, people are going to be looking back and whining a lot when they say "I could've had Allen Robinson [insert any of 20 players here] and picked up [insert RB here] 2 rounds later and got this production.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
I don't agree with the thinking that Elliot must live up to top 3 RB numbers to worth a pick in the top half of round one. There is a range of possible outcomes for his season. Its not either he is the best RB ever or a total bust. IMO what make Elliot compelling in the first, is that he could be 2014 Murray and average 28 touches per game and be the best rookie RB ever. Even if it is unlikely that he posts 2000 yards and 13 TDs its in the realm of possibility which is more upside and almost every other RB in the league.
On the flip side, lets just say that he is no better than McFadden and the cowboys are no better than last year despite having Romo and Dez back. Would 250/1089/3 with 40/328 really be a horrible bust?
If in the preseason games he is not the starting RB then I would temper my first round talk, but if he is the starter I think the upside justifies the risk of only getting a RB2. But we all have different levels of risk aversion.
On the flip side, lets just say that he is no better than McFadden and the cowboys are no better than last year despite having Romo and Dez back. Would 250/1089/3 with 40/328 really be a horrible bust?
If in the preseason games he is not the starting RB then I would temper my first round talk, but if he is the starter I think the upside justifies the risk of only getting a RB2. But we all have different levels of risk aversion.
tombonneau
Footballguy
I simply don't see the downside others see here. He is projected as the full time starter. Barring injury you are looking at a total yards floor of 1200 and 3-4 TDs. That is not going to cost you your season. But if he is a hit, you're looking at one of maybe 3-5 full time bell cow RBs, a rarity in the 2016 NFL. Well worth the risk.
The biggest unknown with any rookie is how much playing time they will get, but when the owner/GM drafts you in the top 10, if you're breathing, you're playing. So IMO the top risk factor is a virtual non-factor with Zeke.
The biggest unknown with any rookie is how much playing time they will get, but when the owner/GM drafts you in the top 10, if you're breathing, you're playing. So IMO the top risk factor is a virtual non-factor with Zeke.
pantherclub
Footballguy
You can get that in the mid to later rounds and instead pick a top 5 stud WR. Drafting a rookie RB in the first and just hoping his floor is 1200 or so is just silly.
Tau837
Footballguy
Please name the mid to late round RB picks who have a floor of 1200 yards and 4 TDs.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
it's important to understand outcome ranges in FF. I tend to side with you in terms of Zeke's possible outcomes and my according valuation.
Power Monster
The Midnight Stalker
FWIW - sat in on 7 mocks this past weekend (10 and 12 teams) and he was consistently going mid-first.
tombonneau
Footballguy
It's not hope. It's a reasonable projection based on the recent history of Dallas RBs and their intent on how they will use EE in their offense. Drafting him in the first I think the only massive bust potential is injury, which is same for everyone.
People cite Richardson as the Caveat Emptor on rookie RBs in the first, but he still had 1300 total yards and 12 TDs as a rookie.
massraider
Footballguy
He has to have an exceptional rookie year to validate his draft slot. Not just very good, exceptional. An almost all-time rookie RB season.
I've taken him at the end of the 1st in MFL 10's, but hey, it's 10 bucks, and I'm trying stuff out.
Real money, in a redraft, in a serious league, that's paying for hype. Paying for talent and situation, and positional scarcity, for sure. But you're paying for hype there a bit as well.
I've taken him at the end of the 1st in MFL 10's, but hey, it's 10 bucks, and I'm trying stuff out.
Real money, in a redraft, in a serious league, that's paying for hype. Paying for talent and situation, and positional scarcity, for sure. But you're paying for hype there a bit as well.
tombonneau
Footballguy
There is definitely some Hype Tax with him but as others have alluded to with the concept of a value scale, he doesn't have to meet or exceed his draft spot to be a good pick. Honestly, without even looking I'd guess on average 50% of first round picks underperform with the other 50% hitting or exceeding their value.
And so while he might not have the RB1 or RB2 stats that being the #2 RB off the board "should have", I think its more likely than not he finishes in the top 5-6 which is fine by me with a first round pick.
massraider
Footballguy
''More likely than not''.
That's strong stuff. I wonder what happens to the running lanes when Romo cracks another collarbone, and the defense cannot stop anyone in the passing game because all their pass rushers are smoking pot in the penalty box.
TripItUp
Footballguy
While this is a fascinating debate, the methodology some are using seems suspect. Do we really consider a 1st round pick to be a bust if the player merely provides solid reliable starter value every week? Do we require a top 10-12 player to be top-3 in order to,justify his selection?
By that logic, no first-overall draft pick can ever have appropriate value, because they "would have to be the best fantasy player in the league" to "live up to" their draft position. I suspect by that standard, 90+% of all top picks are "overdrafted."
By that logic, no first-overall draft pick can ever have appropriate value, because they "would have to be the best fantasy player in the league" to "live up to" their draft position. I suspect by that standard, 90+% of all top picks are "overdrafted."
pantherclub
Footballguy
pantherclub
Footballguy
I didnt say floor I meant production.
From last season, D Martin, Lmurray, Gore, Trawls, Dmac, Freeman are examples of RB's with similar numbers that were drafted in later rounds (or not at all).
Instead of doing the ultimate gamble of drafting a rookie rb on a team with a china doll QB I would much rather get a bona fide #1 wr and work from there.
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Bronco Billy
Footballguy
His future owners will especially love his hitting the rookie wall right around FF playoff time - if they even make it there.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I totally disagree. You act as if it's unheard of for a rookie to finish with an RB1 type year. Just last year there were two rookie RBs that finished just inside the top 10. The way things have been going with RBs these days, I'm happy with a solid RB1 in the late 1st. Is there any reason to think his situation/talent combination is anything but better than those guys?
This argument also seems to assume you can't miss on WRs. Of last year's top 10 WRs, only 5 were drafted in the first 4 rounds. Getting a top 10 WR isn't easy either, so I have no problem going with what should definitely be a top 10 RB.
(Yes, small sample sizes, and scoring rules, etc. might not make all of this true for your league, but you get the point.)
Tau837
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
Because he is a 1st rounder, you are giving up the ability to draft a top WR.
If he's a top 10 RB, but not top 3 or so, a true stud, he'll be surrounded in the rankings by guys like Ingram, and Woodhead, and Bernard. Later picks. By teams that took AJ Green or Hopkins in the 1st.
He wouldn't be a bust, just not worth it.
TripItUp
Footballguy
correct, and that's not even taking into account the potential for a "rookie wall" as previously mentioned.
