how strictly do you guys follow the 'don't start thursday night players' stuff? forsett might be a solid value play against a porous steeler run D, but i always hear that you're not supposed to pick thursday night guys. what's the move?
Why would you avoid Thursday night players?
Do they change the rules or the size of the field on Thursdays?
As Hulk mentioned, TNF has been documented to be a lesser product, in terms of statistical output; those players traditionally score about 10% less than players involved in Sunday games. Jonathan Bales did a nice statistical breakdown of this phenomenon in one of his books (the first one, I think?).
The reason? Perhaps a defense has an advantage over an offense who has less days to prepare? Perhaps players are sore and less apt to play through the pain, thereby easing up on Thursdays? Maybe it's just because the caliber of teams is not as strong as the other primetime NFL games? Nobody is entirely sure, but the numbers are there...
Furthermore, Thursday night guys are always widely-owned; thus, if you avoid the stinkers, you can enter Sunday with a big leg-up on your competition. If your opponent happens to land a high-scoring player on a Thursday (i.e., Lynch last week), you are still not dead in the water because you have another 12-15 games from which to select your players.
Regarding the Baltimore backfield, I'm steering clear...it could be Forsett based on last week's performance, but I find it hard to believe that Harbaugh will continue to punish Pierce for the first fumble of his career. I could see a 60-40 split in favor of Forsett, which doesn't excite me, particularly in a game that is traditionally low-scoring. Pass on the entire game for me (as of now).
