Fantasy Mock, the first 6 rounds (1 Viewer)

[weasel3515]

High performance scoring league. 2 points for every 10 yards rushing or receiving. 4 pts TD passes. 1 point for every reception. Unlimited # of players within each position, 16-man roster.

1.1 RB Alexander

1.2 RB LJ

1.3 RB LT2 (down because of Rivers)

1.4 QB P.Manning (probably too high, but without Edge may throw more TDs again)

1.5 RB Edge

1.6 RB Barber

1.7 RB Jordan

1.8 RB Portis

1.9 RB Cadillac

1.10 RB T.Jones

2.1 RB R.Johnson

2.2 RB Brown (if Ricky's suspension is held up)

2.3 RB S. Jackson

2.4 RB McGahee

2.5 WR S.Smith

2.6. WR T.O.

2.7 RB R.Bush

2.8 RB Dunn

2.9 RB J.Jones

2.10 WR C.Johnson

3.1 RB Parker

3.2 WR Holt

3.3 RB Bell

3.4 WR Boldin

3.5 RB Dillon

3.6 WR Fitzergerald (somebody always takes two WRs early)

3.7 RB Droughns

3.8 QB Hasselbeck (and not Tim)

3.9 WR Wayne

3.10 WR Harrison

4.1 RB Rhodes

4.2 RB Foster

4.3 TE Gates

4.4 QB E.Manning

4.5 RB K.Jones

4.6 WR Ward

4.7 Westbrook

4.8 RB C.Taylor (there's always someone who drafts RBs the first 4 rounds)

4.9 WR Chambers

4.10 TE Gonzo

5.1 WR Burress

5.2 RB C.Brown

5.3 WR S.Moss

5.4 TE Shockey

5.5 QB Bledsoe

5.6 QB Brady

5.7 WR A.Johnson

5.8 WR R.Moss

5.9 RB A.Green (there's always a Packer homer in every draft)

5.10 QB Bulger

6.1 WR Roy Williams

6.2 WR Evans

6.3 DEF Chicago (somebody always takes a defense early)

6.4 RB Lewis

6.5 RB F.Taylor

6.6 C-Mart

6.7 TE Crumpler

6.8 RB Gore

6.9 Palmer

6.10 QB Green

You can guess at either one of two conclusions:

A. I have too much time on my hands

B. I have no life

 

[fridayfrenzy]

1. You have no lineup requirements.

2. That scoring system is not the standard, so it harder to judge off hand. Giving 2 points for the yards and only 4 pts per TD very much increase yardage monsters like Tiki. Westbrook that low in a pt/reception league. No way.

 

[Texasmouth]

No reasoning behind most picks.

Only ten teams.

Not knowing Alexander is on the cover of Madden and should not be drafted #1 overall

Putting in a solid effort despite these things and having the guts to post it here knowing that even if God himself posted here it would get ripped

I totally agree with the LT pick as well......

 

[Team Legacy]

Bell before Boldin, Fitz, Wayne, Harisson and Gates...

interesting.

 

[SoFresh&SoClean]

So basically Palmer is the steal of the draft.

 

[diesel7982]

1.10 will be WAY too early for Thomas Jones.

 

[diesel7982]

So basically Palmer is the steal of the draft.

He'll be the best QB with one knee that works in September.

 

[Texasmouth]

Bell before Boldin, Fitz, Wayne, Harisson and Gates...

interesting.

Interesting or completely ridiculous?

 

[perry147]

1.10 will be WAY too early for Thomas Jones.

That is what I was about to type. TJ is the first round I have not seen this since his rookie draft. Please explain this pick.

 

[Payne]

So basically Palmer is the steal of the draft.

Not when I can get Duece at 7.1

 

[ExaltedOne]

So basically Palmer is the steal of the draft.

Not when I can get Duece at 7.1

No Darrell Jackson?Bush is in the 2nd, but no other rookie RBs worth owning?

No Donovan McNabb?

Dominic Rhodes over Kevin Jones, Chester Taylor, Jamal Lewis, and Deuce?

Possibly the worst mock ever.

 

[SoFresh&SoClean]

So basically Palmer is the steal of the draft.

Not when I can get Duece at 7.1

That's true too. I'm sure I like this draft so much.

 

[weasel3515]

Thanks for the criticism, I appreciate all of your insights. I'll try to answer your questions as best I can in regard to my thinking:

1. Lineup requirements-1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1 FLEX (either RB, WR or TE), 1 TE, 1 DEF/ST, 1 PK

2. Some players seemed probably too low like Westbrook, McNabb, and D-Jax (just had some minor surgery recently to remove stuff in his knee) and even Palmer because of the injuries they sustained last year.

3. Bell is up that high based on the assumption that he will be the sole starter in Denver. I know that's a huge assumption, but based on the reputation of Denver starting RBs and the fact that I was trying to get a RB in that slot, well, I came up with Bell. I agree he is probably too high though.

4. Thomas Jones. This was the hardest pick of the mock. He was 8th in rushing last year, had a 4.3 ypg average and almost 1,500 total yards. Not bad considering he was really the only weapon for the Bears most of the season. I was trying to come up with who would be the #10 player. I appreciate any thoughts on who should be there instead.

5. No other rookie RBs besides Bush (and I even don't think he will go that high). Mostly the product of the fact we don't know where the other rookies are going yet. I could see DeAngelo making this list if he gets in a good situation.

6. Rhodes over KJ, Chester, Jamal and Deuce. Well, Deuce is a no-brainer as the guy gets hurt whenever he brushes his teeth. KJ seems to be made out of glass-the guy has never played a full season going all the way back through college. Jamal's stats and production have been diminishing steadily the last three years, especially his ypc. If Ogden isn't playing Jamal is almost worthless. I could see Chester over Rhodes but gave Rhodes the nod based on reading recently that Dungy is totally happy with him as the starter, that he has already had one very good season under his belt (albeit a few years ago) and Chester still might be victim of the dreaded RBBC with Fiason, Moore and possibly even SOD.

 

[fightingillini]

You can guess at either one of two conclusions:

A. I have too much time on my hands

B. I have no life

C. You have no idea how to post a fantasy mock. Seriously, as others have posted, no rationale behind the picks, no lineup requirements, and a lot of puzzling picks.

 

[I Am Arthur]

With 2 pts for every 10 yds rush/rec that pretty much doubles the gap between RBs/WRs and QBs.

No way a QB should be taken anywhere in the first 2 rounds.

 

[Rev]

4. Thomas Jones. This was the hardest pick of the mock. He was 8th in rushing last year, had a 4.3 ypg average and almost 1,500 total yards. Not bad considering he was really the only weapon for the Bears most of the season. I was trying to come up with who would be the #10 player. I appreciate any thoughts on who should be there instead.

I appreciate your sticking your neck out for Jones. I've held on to him for 2 years because I saw him play in person and love his running style. Last year he fended off Benson. If he does it this year on an improved team, he could end up with 1800 total yards and be in the top 5. I'd say the odds of that happening are 40%, but that would sure shut they naysayers up!

 

[code]

Alright, I'll bite...let's take a look at 2005 numbers using this scoring system, here's the top 20 RBs, the top 20 WRs and the top 10 TEs...

RB Tiki Barber 598RB Larry Johnson 577.6RB Shaun Alexander 574.6RB LaDainian Tomlinson 537.4RB Edgerrin James 496.6RB LaMont Jordan 453.6RB Clinton Portis 442.4RB Rudi Johnson 404.6RB Warrick Dunn 380.2RB Steven Jackson 376.2RB Thomas Jones 375.6RB Reuben Droughns 371.2RB Brian Westbrook 349.6RB Willis McGahee 343RB Mike Anderson 341.2RB Domanick Davis 337.6RB Willie Parker 332RB Carnell Williams 307.8RB Julius Jones 307.2RB Chris Brown 302.6

WR  Steve Smith	487.6WR  Larry Fitzgerald	444.8WR  Chad Johnson	437.4WR  Santana Moss	434.6WR  Anquan Boldin	424.4WR  Torry Holt	422.2WR  Joey Galloway	400.4WR  Marvin Harrison	383.2WR  Chris Chambers	371.6WR  Plaxico Burress	360.8WR  Donald Driver	360.2WR  Rod Smith	342WR  Terry Glenn	331.2WR  Hines Ward	330WR  Reggie Wayne	324WR  Derrick Mason	318.6WR  Eddie Kennison	318.4WR  T.J. Houshmandzadeh	311.2WR  Jimmy Smith	310.6WR  Randy Moss	309

TE  Antonio Gates	369.2TE  Todd Heap	288TE  Jeremy Shockey	285.2TE  Tony Gonzalez	271TE  Alge Crumpler	270.4TE  Chris Cooley	267.8TE  Jason Witten	253.4TE  L.J. Smith	215.4TE  Randy McMichael	206.4TE  Jermaine Wiggins	188.6

Here's the top 10 remaining flex players:

WR  Deion Branch	307.6WR  Keenan McCardell	307.4WR  Donte' Stallworth	301WR  Antonio Bryant	294.8WR  Jerry Porter	294.4WR  Keyshawn Johnson	274.8RB  DeShaun Foster	302.2RB  Ronnie Brown	289.8RB  Corey Dillon	282.8RB  Jamal Lewis	275.4

You didn't give us scoring for passing yards...so lets assume its half the rush/rec yards like most leagues, meaning 2 for 20...here's your top 10 QBs:

QB  Tom Brady	538.8QB  Carson Palmer	525.8QB  Peyton Manning	495.7QB  Eli Manning	494.2QB  Trent Green	485.8QB  Brett Favre	480.5QB  Drew Bledsoe	477.9QB  Matt Hasselbeck	472.7QB  Kerry Collins	469.7QB  Drew Brees	469.4

Using VBD here's the players ranked by value for 2005:

RB Tiki Barber 322.6RB Larry Johnson 302.2RB Shaun Alexander 299.2RB LaDainian Tomlinson 262RB Edgerrin James 221.2WR Steve Smith 212.8TE Antonio Gates 180.6RB LaMont Jordan 178.2WR Larry Fitzgerald 170RB Clinton Portis 167WR Chad Johnson 162.6WR Santana Moss 159.8WR Anquan Boldin 149.6WR Torry Holt 147.4RB Rudi Johnson 129.2WR Joey Galloway 125.6WR Marvin Harrison 108.4RB Warrick Dunn 104.8RB Steven Jackson 100.8RB Thomas Jones 100.2TE Todd Heap 99.4WR Chris Chambers 96.8TE Jeremy Shockey 96.6RB Reuben Droughns 95.8WR Plaxico Burress 86WR Donald Driver 85.4TE Tony Gonzalez 82.4TE Alge Crumpler 81.8TE Chris Cooley 79.2RB Brian Westbrook 74.2QB Tom Brady 69.4RB Willis McGahee 67.6WR Rod Smith 67.2RB Mike Anderson 65.8TE Jason Witten 64.8RB Domanick Davis 62.2RB Willie Parker 56.6WR Terry Glenn 56.4QB Carson Palmer 56.4WR Hines Ward 55.2WR Reggie Wayne 49.2WR Derrick Mason 43.8WR Eddie Kennison 43.6WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh 36.4WR Jimmy Smith 35.8WR Randy Moss 34.2WR Deion Branch 32.8WR Keenan McCardell 32.6RB Carnell Williams 32.4RB Julius Jones 31.8RB Chris Brown 27.2TE L.J. Smith 26.8RB DeShaun Foster 26.8QB Peyton Manning 26.3WR Donte' Stallworth 26.2QB Eli Manning 24.8WR Antonio Bryant 20WR Jerry Porter 19.6TE Randy McMichael 17.8QB Trent Green 16.4RB Ronnie Brown 14.4QB Brett Favre 11.1QB Drew Bledsoe 8.5RB Corey Dillon 7.4QB Matt Hasselbeck 3.3QB Kerry Collins 0.3WR Keyshawn Johnson 0TE Jermaine Wiggins 0RB Jamal Lewis 0QB Drew Brees 0I took your rankings and compared them to 2005 numbers and here's the biggest moversin the top 20 on your board:

TE  Antonio Gates dropping 26 spotsWR  Larry Fitzgerald dropping 17 spotsWR  Santana Moss dropping 31 spotsWR  Anquan Boldin dropping 11 spotsWR  Joey Galloway not event ranked, dropping at least 45 spotsWR  Marvin Harrison dropping 13 spotsRB  Thomas Jones rising 10 spots

So...a few questions for you...- Peyton Manning finished last year as only the 54th most valuable player and 3rd QB, how do you justify taking him in the 1st round?

- You've got Thomas Jones jumping from #20 to #10 (by value)....what has changed in Chicago to warrant the improvement?

- You've got Fitzgerland labeled "early" at #26, when he finished last year at #9 (by value)...what is the reason for the drop?

- You've got Santana Moss at #43, last year he ranked #12 (by value)...why the huge drop?

- You don't even have Galloway ranked...he finished last year as #16 overall and the #7 WR...he no longer even warrant being in the top 26 WRs?

Gosh, so many more questions my head hurts...

 

[Boston]

For Thomas Jones to produce at the level he's drafted means Cedric Benson would have to be a monumental bust that puts up very limited numbers this year. Unless the Bears have come to a conclusion based on seeing Benson in a limited capacity that they wasted the #4 pick in last year's draft I just don't see that being feasible. With Benson in the mix I find it hard to believe Jones will improve upon last years numbers or even be able to match them.

 

[weasel3515]

You can guess at either one of two conclusions:

A.  I have too much time on my hands

B.  I have no life

C. You have no idea how to post a fantasy mock. Seriously, as others have posted, no rationale behind the picks, no lineup requirements, and a lot of puzzling picks.

Fair enough although if you look at my previous post I did supply the lineup requirements. I admit that some of the picks might look puzzling so here was my methodology:I structured this on a 10-team league that I have been in for a few years with this kind of scoring system and lineup requirements. I realize it is probably alien to the leagues you are used to, but this is what I am familiar with.

I'll also admit some of the picks might make you want to scratch your head (trust me, I was scratching mine for lots of them) and I'm not even totally happy with it either. The rationale behind most of them was that I was trying to get most teams with 3-4 RBs early with WRs, quality TEs and QBs in there to fill in the open slots because most teams in my league are not going to draft 4 RBs the first four rounds (although someone always does and somebody always drafts some kind of "run-and-shoot" type lineup that is WR heavy-usually to finish in the bottom half of the standings).

That said, I thank you for your critiques and look forward to YOUR mock fightingillini!

 

[Wreckincrew]

No reasoning behind most picks.

Only ten teams.

Not knowing Alexander is on the cover of Madden and should not be drafted #1 overall

Putting in a solid effort despite these things and having the guts to post it here knowing that even if God himself posted here it would get ripped

I totally agree with the LT pick as well......

Actually 10 teams works out the best schedule wise;Two divisions - play each division opponent twice and each non-division once for 13 games total.

 

[weasel3515]

No reasoning behind most picks. 

Only ten teams. 

Not knowing Alexander is on the cover of Madden and should not be drafted #1 overall 

Putting in a solid effort despite these things and having the guts to post it here  knowing that even if God himself posted here it would get ripped 

I totally agree with the LT pick as well...... 

Actually 10 teams works out the best schedule wise;Two divisions - play each division opponent twice and each non-division once for 13 games total.

Thanks Wreckincrew, that's exactly why our league won't expand. We like the fact that we get to play everyone at least once. I realize I neglected to mention in the scoring system that QBs also get 1 point for every 10 yards passing (plus 2 points for ever 10 yards rushing). Fumbles and Int's cost the player -2 points each.

 

[code]

So...a few questions for you...

- Peyton Manning finished last year as only the 54th most valuable player and 3rd QB, how do you justify taking him in the 1st round?

- You've got Thomas Jones jumping from #20 to #10 (by value)....what has changed in Chicago to warrant the improvement?

- You've got Fitzgerland labeled "early" at #26, when he finished last year at #9 (by value)...what is the reason for the drop?

- You've got Santana Moss at #43, last year he ranked #12 (by value)...why the huge drop?

- You don't even have Galloway ranked...he finished last year as #16 overall and the #7 WR...he no longer even warrant being in the top 26 WRs?

 

[weasel3515]

So...a few questions for you...

- Peyton Manning finished last year as only the 54th most valuable player and 3rd QB, how do you justify taking him in the 1st round?

- You've got Thomas Jones jumping from #20 to #10 (by value)....what has changed in Chicago to warrant the improvement?

- You've got Fitzgerland labeled "early" at #26, when he finished last year at #9 (by value)...what is the reason for the drop?

- You've got Santana Moss at #43, last year he ranked #12 (by value)...why the huge drop?

- You don't even have Galloway ranked...he finished last year as #16 overall and the #7 WR...he no longer even warrant being in the top 26 WRs?

Code, I just want to say I was very, very impressed with what you put together, thanks for sharing it with us. On to your questions...I think P. Manning will have another monster year like two years ago. I base this on two premises. First, Edge is gone, you just can't expect the same kind of rushing stats without him, meaning more passing. Second, I think the team showed that it values the passing game more by making re-signing Wayne a priority.

Thomas Jones. Grossman with more experience and a willingness by the coaching staff to open up the offense more will mean even greater production for Jones, especially considering the cushy run defenses they face this year (only two in the top-10 from last year). Like I said, though, that was the hardest pick of the entire mock for me.

Fitzgerald. No way he goes in the first round in a ten team league. All RBs and Manning. If a WR goes in the first round it will be S.Smith or T.O. The third round is when WRs always go, although I will concede he could go as high as the end of the second round.

S.Moss. The signings of Randel-El, Givens and possibly Lloyd will cut seriously into Santana's guitar solos.

Galloway. Career year last year. Just my opinion. Simms throwing him the ball doesn't inspire much confidence either. Even Michael Clayton could rebound hurting Galloway's value. Still, I think you are right in the oversight that he must be on this list. Good catch.

Not sure if you factored in your scoring that, naturally, all rushing and receiving TDs are worth 6 points as I didn't put that info in the beginning. Thanks for taking the time to respond.

 

[code]

Code, I just want to say I was very, very impressed with what you put together, thanks for sharing it with us.

Happy to do it...nice to flex the excel skills in the offseason...and yes, I used 6 points per rushing or receiving TD...

On to your questions...I think P. Manning will have another monster year like two years ago. I base this on two premises. First, Edge is gone, you just can't expect the same kind of rushing stats without him, meaning more passing. Second, I think the team showed that it values the passing game more by making re-signing Wayne a priority.

Even if Manning puts up record setting numbers like 2004, which I don't believe is realistic, he would still only warrant the 1.07 pick...and at that spot he still has nothing but downside...

Thomas Jones. Grossman with more experience and a willingness by the coaching staff to open up the offense more will mean even greater production for Jones, especially considering the cushy run defenses they face this year (only two in the top-10 from last year). Like I said, though, that was the hardest pick of the entire mock for me.

I understand the optimism, I've owned Jones in years past and like him...but last year he had nearly 1500 yards and 9 TDs on 26 receptions...I suppose another 200 yards, 3 TDs, and 12 catches is possible, but I'd still say it is very optimistic...

Fitzgerald. No way he goes in the first round in a ten team league. All RBs and Manning. If a WR goes in the first round it will be S.Smith or T.O. The third round is when WRs always go, although I will concede he could go as high as the end of the second round.

Let's be careful not to shift the argument...I put together a player value ranking...I agree that historical precedence in your league may suggest that Fitz won't go in the first round, but if you believe in his 2005 performance as early as 2.05 he becomes a huge value pick in this system...

S.Moss. The signings of Randel-El, Givens and possibly Lloyd will cut seriously into Santana's guitar solos.

Givens signed with the Titans...I'm not a big Moss fan, but in this scoring system I think he has to go earlier...I guess what I was trying to highlight is that you have a slightly unusual scoring system...what VBD will reveal is that there are some positions and players that you can exploit for value relative to player rankings based on more standard scoring, particularly if you know draft tendencies of your leaguemates don't account for the scoring system...but you also run the risk of overvaluing players (like Manning) who just aren't as valuable in this particular scoring system...Hope that helps...

 

[weasel3515]

Code, I just want to say I was very, very impressed with what you put together, thanks for sharing it with us. 

Happy to do it...nice to flex the excel skills in the offseason...and yes, I used 6 points per rushing or receiving TD...

On to your questions...

I think P. Manning will have another monster year like two years ago.  I base this on two premises.  First, Edge is gone, you just can't expect the same kind of rushing stats without him, meaning more passing.  Second, I think the team showed that it values the passing game more by making re-signing Wayne a priority. 

Even if Manning puts up record setting numbers like 2004, which I don't believe is realistic, he would still only warrant the 1.07 pick...and at that spot he still has nothing but downside...

Thomas Jones.  Grossman with more experience and a willingness by the coaching staff to open up the offense more will mean even greater production for Jones, especially considering the cushy run defenses they face this year (only two in the top-10 from last year).  Like I said, though, that was the hardest pick of the entire mock for me.

I understand the optimism, I've owned Jones in years past and like him...but last year he had nearly 1500 yards and 9 TDs on 26 receptions...I suppose another 200 yards, 3 TDs, and 12 catches is possible, but I'd still say it is very optimistic...

Fitzgerald.  No way he goes in the first round in a ten team league.  All RBs and Manning.  If a WR goes in the first round it will be S.Smith or T.O.  The third round is when WRs always go, although I will concede he could go as high as the end of the second round.

Let's be careful not to shift the argument...I put together a player value ranking...I agree that historical precedence in your league may suggest that Fitz won't go in the first round, but if you believe in his 2005 performance as early as 2.05 he becomes a huge value pick in this system...

S.Moss.  The signings of Randel-El, Givens and possibly Lloyd will cut seriously into Santana's guitar solos.

Givens signed with the Titans...I'm not a big Moss fan, but in this scoring system I think he has to go earlier...I guess what I was trying to highlight is that you have a slightly unusual scoring system...what VBD will reveal is that there are some positions and players that you can exploit for value relative to player rankings based on more standard scoring, particularly if you know draft tendencies of your leaguemates don't account for the scoring system...but you also run the risk of overvaluing players (like Manning) who just aren't as valuable in this particular scoring system...

Hope that helps...

Thanks for the correction on Givens, I forgot it was with the Titans. So many players moves to try to keep up on. I can agree with Manning sliding to 1.07 but know someone will take him higher. TJ is definitely a dicey pick at that spot, especially if Benson takes the field at some point. Fitz could definitely outperform many RBs at 2.05 and later. S.Moss is still a question mark for me. He has been good every other year, some of that to do with moving between teams. Lastly, you are right, this is an unusual scoring system, tweaked over the years. Under this system a team will want to score close to 200 pts a week or more or risk losing. It's good to see your insights as well as those of others to help me know what others are thinking so I can mentally prepare for the next few months for the draft. Thanks to all who contributed!