Fantasy winners and losers post-draft (2 Viewers)

[cstu]

Cherry picking a bit...I remember Clinton Portis being a 2nd rounder.

As was LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, MJD.

Frank Gore was a 3rd rounder.

Going back further, Tiki Barber, Corey Dillon, and Rickey Watters were all 2nd rounders too.

That's true, but how many of those guys were 1.01 rookie picks?

Isn't the question how many of them SHOULD have been? But people were scared away because...

If we have the power of hindsight, sure. But I don’t think we should point to exceptions and declare them a rule. What the NFL thinks about these guys is very important. The trends suggest that the higher you’re drafted, the more likely you are to be productive in the NFL. The break between the 1st and 2nd round is especially big, in terms of likelihood of success.

I’m a fan and will be drafting and targeting where I can. I’m not saying he’s a bust or can’t end up being a top fantasy back. I’m simply saying his value took a hit. Maybe not major, especially if he goes in the first 5-6 picks tonight and lands in a good situation. It might mean nothing, long-term. But today his value is lower than it was yesterday. He’s still the same player, whom I like. But I’d feel better had the NFL nabbed him with a top 32 pick.

trying to wrap my head around this but not sure I will....in terms of fantasy value....nothing has changed....he didn't have a team before and he still doesn't....the fact that he wasn't the right pick so far for several teams really has nothing to do with his fantasy value.....he may in fact be very high on many teams boards, maybe even higher rated then the guy the team has already taken, but positional need was more important to that team at the time...

that comment seems silly, cause as soon as he is picked (let's say by GB)....his "fantasy value" will sky rocket....his value is tied more to where he ends up when he is picked, not "when" he is picked....by your way of thinking....if he goes with the first pick today (33) are you saying that his value really took a hit because he didn't go at (32)....?

NFL teams are very good at drafting RB's. I'd have to pull up the exact stats but it's something like only 25% of 2nd round RB's even make the Pro Bowl once while it's 50% for 1st round RB's. That he wasn't drafted in the 1st says a lot about how teams view him. Now they can of course be wrong but we should take it as a sign they have some questions about him.

 

[SayWhat?]

Why is St Louis a good landing spot for Austin? I don't get it, Bradford is a bad fantasy QB, they have no RB to extend drives, the line is ok. Seems like a subpar spot to me.

Because Bradford feeds the slot, and Austin is likely to be a major part of the offense.

To go along with that, you could argue that St. Louis is one of the few places without a true #1 WR (Quick? Givens?). From my perspective that is about as good as it could get for Austin in terms of potential targets. Targets don't always equate to production but they certainly don't hurt.

My biggest concern is how the addition of Cook affects Austin's targets in that "Amendola" role. Oh, and Tavon's size too. I'll admit that I laughed when he was standing next to Goodell.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Rams 2012 stats

Givens 42/698

Gibson 51/691 (gone)

Amendola 63/666 (gone)

Pettis 30/261

TOTAL WR 211/2603

Kendricks 42/519

TOTAL TE 55/655

SJAX 38/321 (gone)

DRICH 24/163

TOTAL RB: 65/500

Givens will be on the field more and should increase his receptions to about 60 but the YPC is bound to drop.

Cook will take all of Kendricks stats and then some. But I think he takes more RB catches than WR catches. I think the total RB catches drops to around 50, and Cook raises the TE total to about 70 (Cook getting about 55-60 of those).

Amendola was on pace for 80 receptions if he played every game. I doubt Austin gets all those, but even at 60-70 he would be very valuable right out of the gate.

That leaves about 70 for Quick, Pettis, or a cheap vet WR we don't know yet. Or extra upside for Givens and Austin.

That's all based on last years stats which is probably stupid and simplistic, but it's what I did.

 

[Cookiemonster]

NFL teams are very good at drafting RB's. I'd have to pull up the exact stats but it's something like only 25% of 2nd round RB's even make the Pro Bowl once while it's 50% for 1st round RB's. That he wasn't drafted in the 1st says a lot about how teams view him. Now they can of course be wrong but we should take it as a sign they have some questions about him.

We didn't think Lacy would be a multi-time Pro Bowl player coming into this draft. We think he is a quicker, faster, tougher, better receiving Shonn Greene. Not Adrien Peterson or even Trent Richardson. Still may be worth a 1.01. If he lands in Pittsburgh, he'll be a consensus 1.01 even in PPR over Tavon who will be a PPR monster.

 

[Scooby1974]

Seahawks got Harvin with their #1..... they win for sure.

And a ton of cash. Any team can buy players without giving up a 1st round

I'm not sure I agree with either of you. Harvin cost a lot more than a #1 pick. But isting a player of Harvin's caliber (talent/skill set/ age) w/o giving up a #1 pick very likely?

 

[Stinkin Ref]

NFL teams are very good at drafting RB's. I'd have to pull up the exact stats but it's something like only 25% of 2nd round RB's even make the Pro Bowl once while it's 50% for 1st round RB's. That he wasn't drafted in the 1st says a lot about how teams view him. Now they can of course be wrong but we should take it as a sign they have some questions about him.

or that they have bigger needs elsewhere....

in addition one of the teams that had 3 of the 32 picks (MIN) really has no reason at all to look at Lacy even if Lacy was Barry Sanders...there are many other teams who picked (HOU, etc) that RB isn't a need.....it doesn't mean they don't consider Lacy "first round type talent"

and just IMO...."pro bowler" really doesn't mean much.....All Pro would be a better indication.....by the time injuries are taken into account as well as guys just choosing not to go....being a "pro bowl replacement" allows you to say you were a pro bowler....when really your butt was sitting on the sofa before you got the call...

teams using a 1st rounder on a RB doesn't make much sense in today's pass happy NFL

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

NFL teams are very good at drafting RB's. I'd have to pull up the exact stats but it's something like only 25% of 2nd round RB's even make the Pro Bowl once while it's 50% for 1st round RB's. That he wasn't drafted in the 1st says a lot about how teams view him. Now they can of course be wrong but we should take it as a sign they have some questions about him.

or that they have bigger needs elsewhere....

in addition one of the teams that had 3 of the 32 picks (MIN) really has no reason at all to look at Lacy even if Lacy was Barry Sanders...there are many other teams who picked (HOU, etc) that RB isn't a need.....it doesn't mean they don't consider Lacy "first round type talent"

and just IMO...."pro bowler" really doesn't mean much.....All Pro would be a better indication.....by the time injuries are taken into account as well as guys just choosing not to go....being a "pro bowl replacement" allows you to say you were a pro bowler....when really your butt was sitting on the sofa before you got the call...

teams using a 1st rounder on a RB doesn't make much sense in today's pass happy NFL

well just last year 3 RBs went in the 1st round. Its not the position, its the talent at this position isnt there this year.

last year two teams traded up to get RBs in round1.

 

[Concept Coop]

well just last year 3 RBs went in the 1st round. Its not the position, its the talent at this position isnt there this year.

last year two teams traded up to get RBs in round1.

It's a bit of both. There are still some teams who want a bellcow to run the ball 20-25 teams, Cleveland and Tampa being 2 of them - hence Richardson/Martin. But that number of those are going down - teams are moving towards RBBC's and guys like Sproles, Spiller, McCoy, Wilson - who are threats on every down. It's been 50 years since a RB hasn't gone in the first round. Lacy might not be an elite talent, but we could find lesser talents going in the first round over that 50 year span.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

NFL teams are very good at drafting RB's. I'd have to pull up the exact stats but it's something like only 25% of 2nd round RB's even make the Pro Bowl once while it's 50% for 1st round RB's. That he wasn't drafted in the 1st says a lot about how teams view him. Now they can of course be wrong but we should take it as a sign they have some questions about him.

or that they have bigger needs elsewhere....

in addition one of the teams that had 3 of the 32 picks (MIN) really has no reason at all to look at Lacy even if Lacy was Barry Sanders...there are many other teams who picked (HOU, etc) that RB isn't a need.....it doesn't mean they don't consider Lacy "first round type talent"

and just IMO...."pro bowler" really doesn't mean much.....All Pro would be a better indication.....by the time injuries are taken into account as well as guys just choosing not to go....being a "pro bowl replacement" allows you to say you were a pro bowler....when really your butt was sitting on the sofa before you got the call...

teams using a 1st rounder on a RB doesn't make much sense in today's pass happy NFL

well just last year 3 RBs went in the 1st round. Its not the position, its the talent at this position isnt there this year.

last year two teams traded up to get RBs in round1.

just for fun...say we started the NFL from scratch....right now...every player was available to be drafted...there were no players on any teams....how many RB's do you think would go in the first round..?

 

[eakfootball]

Il assume Lacy and Austin go 1 and 2. Who are we looking at for 3 right now you think? Personally I like Patterson

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Cincy, Dalton, winners. Why not Dalton as a winner? I like the boldness of the move with Eifert adding to Green, Sanu, Gresham, now Eifert. Dalton's been doing pretty well with what he has had and now it looks like another weapon, if they use him. Not a Cincy fan but they are progressing nicely.

Browns, DST, winners, getting Mingo.

Bills, winners, Manuel means just keep trying to til you get it.

Texans, AJ, winners. Finally a posible real No. 2 WR.

Losers: Jets, all of `em. How bad does an offense have to be before their management goes offense with at least one of two decent picks in the 1st round if not both? Outside of Austin there had been little action on skill players and there were still interior linemen to be had. Too bad.

Losers: Bucs, Freeman. The offenses around their division keep improving and they stayed pat, Austin (with a trade up) or Eifert would have been great there, I'm glad they did not get that chance.

Losers: Cowboys, Murray, Romo. That whole thing reflects indecision. A Lacy or Eifert or Patterson or just better linemen say could have helped relieve some of the burden.

 

[Concept Coop]

Il assume Lacy and Austin go 1 and 2. Who are we looking at for 3 right now you think? Personally I like Patterson

PPR - it's Patterson or Hopkins. And if Lacy lands in a bad spot, they both likely jump him.

Right now, I'd go:

Austin

Lacy

Patterson

Hopkins

 

[Cookiemonster]

NFL teams are very good at drafting RB's. I'd have to pull up the exact stats but it's something like only 25% of 2nd round RB's even make the Pro Bowl once while it's 50% for 1st round RB's. That he wasn't drafted in the 1st says a lot about how teams view him. Now they can of course be wrong but we should take it as a sign they have some questions about him.

or that they have bigger needs elsewhere....

in addition one of the teams that had 3 of the 32 picks (MIN) really has no reason at all to look at Lacy even if Lacy was Barry Sanders...there are many other teams who picked (HOU, etc) that RB isn't a need.....it doesn't mean they don't consider Lacy "first round type talent"

and just IMO...."pro bowler" really doesn't mean much.....All Pro would be a better indication.....by the time injuries are taken into account as well as guys just choosing not to go....being a "pro bowl replacement" allows you to say you were a pro bowler....when really your butt was sitting on the sofa before you got the call...

teams using a 1st rounder on a RB doesn't make much sense in today's pass happy NFL

well just last year 3 RBs went in the 1st round. Its not the position, its the talent at this position isnt there this year.

last year two teams traded up to get RBs in round1.

just for fun...say we started the NFL from scratch....right now...every player was available to be drafted...there were no players on any teams....how many RB's do you think would go in the first round..?

Peterson and Richardson... late in the 1st. RBs are just not nearly as valuable to NFL teams as they are to fantasy teams. Upgrade the RB a full round in comparison to WRs for a rough comparison to draft values from NFL to fantasy. 2nd round RBs = 1st round RBs. 3rd round RBs = 2 round WRs for the most part.

All that said, Lacy is what we thought he was. A 20-40 pick in the NFL. He's not a strong #1 RB and in a class that lacks top end talent. Lots of good depth though and was great on DB, DL and OL at the top. No surprise to see Lacy still on the board, having that kind of RB depth devalues the top RBs some if they are not elite prospects.

 

[ghostguy123]

Considering what's happened so far, there are still a BUNCH of potential winners/losers left to be had.

Geno's value goes down from where people had him. If he was taken high, like Manuel, he would be a good bet to start right away. Probably not now.

Someone mentioned Lamar Miller as a winner...................not yet on that one, I will need to wait till after the 3rd round to say anything there.

Gresham- draft loser in my eyes there. I think Eifert going there limits his upside bigtime. Probably hurts Eiferts value also.

Lacy's value took a hit. Many view him as the consensus rookie 1.01 pick. How often is that a guy not taken 1st round of the NFL draft?? He may still go pick #1 more than anyone, but the value of that #1 has just gone down a bit either way.

I think this 2nd round coming up will have a higher impact on fantasy values than the 1st round did.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

NFL teams are very good at drafting RB's. I'd have to pull up the exact stats but it's something like only 25% of 2nd round RB's even make the Pro Bowl once while it's 50% for 1st round RB's. That he wasn't drafted in the 1st says a lot about how teams view him. Now they can of course be wrong but we should take it as a sign they have some questions about him.

or that they have bigger needs elsewhere....

in addition one of the teams that had 3 of the 32 picks (MIN) really has no reason at all to look at Lacy even if Lacy was Barry Sanders...there are many other teams who picked (HOU, etc) that RB isn't a need.....it doesn't mean they don't consider Lacy "first round type talent"

and just IMO...."pro bowler" really doesn't mean much.....All Pro would be a better indication.....by the time injuries are taken into account as well as guys just choosing not to go....being a "pro bowl replacement" allows you to say you were a pro bowler....when really your butt was sitting on the sofa before you got the call...

teams using a 1st rounder on a RB doesn't make much sense in today's pass happy NFL

well just last year 3 RBs went in the 1st round. Its not the position, its the talent at this position isnt there this year.

last year two teams traded up to get RBs in round1.

just for fun...say we started the NFL from scratch....right now...every player was available to be drafted...there were no players on any teams....how many RB's do you think would go in the first round..?

thats not reality, but id venture to guess almost none. maybe Trent Rich. the whole first round would be QBs, great OT's and Dline

 

[ghostguy123]

If the NFL did a total redraft of the entire league and a team took a RB in the first round, they would be the laughing stock of the league forever.

 

[Concept Coop]

I'd say the entire draft took a hit. The draft's safest option - Eifert - lands in a questionable spot. The top RB hasn't been drafted yet. Patterson to the Rams and Hopkins to the Texans is neutral. Austin lands in a solid spot, but he's still a 175 pound slot/joker - questions there. Only 1 QB taken in the first round, which is big. The enthusiasm wasn't there for guys like Geno and co., and now the commitment to them will be much less too. Less commitment, less opportunity, less leash - Jimmy Clausen.

Yesterday I thought this class could go up or down in value big time. I think it went down.

Honestly, Manuel should be in the 1st round conversation now. The track record for running QBs, fantasy wise, has been solid lately. There's upside there, based on that alone. He might only be Kaepernick, as a prospect, and went in the first due to a weak class. But, in this class, and after seeing what Newton, RG3, Kaepernick, and even Tebow (when he played) did fantasy wise - he's up there. 1.01 in start 2 and even sflex leagues, in my opinion.

 

[JohnnyU]

Why is St Louis a good landing spot for Austin? I don't get it, Bradford is a bad fantasy QB, they have no RB to extend drives, the line is ok. Seems like a subpar spot to me.

I'm thinking DeSean Jackson in Danny Amendola's role. Lots of 3 wide, single back sets. Quick and Givens on the outside with Cook at TE. Bradford should see some improved numbers, and with StL D coming on and getting stronger, you may see more scoring opportunities too. If they get Lacy next, the Rams could be a year away from contending in that division.

I'm thinking human video game !!

 

[thriftyrocker]

Il assume Lacy and Austin go 1 and 2. Who are we looking at for 3 right now you think? Personally I like Patterson

PPR - it's Patterson or Hopkins. And if Lacy lands in a bad spot, they both likely jump him.

Right now, I'd go:

Austin

Lacy

Patterson

Hopkins

I'm kinda conflicted about the Patterson landing spot. It is great on paper, what all the talking heads said, learn from Jennings, do what Harvin did. But there's no staff there to develop him, and the QB situation is muddled long term. Seems like his value's going to drop before it rises. I still believe in the upside, and it should get confirmed through ST play.

Hopkins should get 50-60 receptions next year, and have an arrow pointing up this time next year.

 

[jonboltz]

I'd say the entire draft took a hit. The draft's safest option - Eifert - lands in a questionable spot. The top RB hasn't been drafted yet. Patterson to the Rams and Hopkins to the Texans is neutral. Austin lands in a solid spot, but he's still a 175 pound slot/joker - questions there. Only 1 QB taken in the first round, which is big. The enthusiasm wasn't there for guys like Geno and co., and now the commitment to them will be much less too. Less commitment, less opportunity, less leash - Jimmy Clausen.



Yesterday I thought this class could go up or down in value big time. I think it went down.

Honestly, Manual should be in the 1st round conversation now. The track record for running QBs, fantasy wise, has been solid lately. There's upside there, based on that alone. He might only be Kaepernick, as a prospect, and went in the first due to a weak class. But, in this class, and after seeing what Newton, RG3, Kaepernick, and even Tebow (when he played) did fantasy wise - he's up there.

As an owner of 1.01 in a Superflex, Manuel certainly has to be in the conversation. However, I was always not a fan of Buffalo as a landing spot to Geno; not sure that Manuel there --- after a tradedown, is a better idea.

Lacy to a good spot or Geno to Philly could change things, though.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

NFL teams are very good at drafting RB's. I'd have to pull up the exact stats but it's something like only 25% of 2nd round RB's even make the Pro Bowl once while it's 50% for 1st round RB's. That he wasn't drafted in the 1st says a lot about how teams view him. Now they can of course be wrong but we should take it as a sign they have some questions about him.

or that they have bigger needs elsewhere.... in addition one of the teams that had 3 of the 32 picks (MIN) really has no reason at all to look at Lacy even if Lacy was Barry Sanders...there are many other teams who picked (HOU, etc) that RB isn't a need.....it doesn't mean they don't consider Lacy "first round type talent" and just IMO...."pro bowler" really doesn't mean much.....All Pro would be a better indication.....by the time injuries are taken into account as well as guys just choosing not to go....being a "pro bowl replacement" allows you to say you were a pro bowler....when really your butt was sitting on the sofa before you got the call... teams using a 1st rounder on a RB doesn't make much sense in today's pass happy NFL

well just last year 3 RBs went in the 1st round. Its not the position, its the talent at this position isnt there this year. last year two teams traded up to get RBs in round1.

just for fun...say we started the NFL from scratch....right now...every player was available to be drafted...there were no players on any teams....how many RB's do you think would go in the first round..?

thats not reality, but id venture to guess almost none. maybe Trent Rich. the whole first round would be QBs, great OT's and Dline

right which is why we have to be careful when using whether or not a guy gets drafted in the "first round" as a measuring stick for fantasy value....people keep commenting that Lacy not getting taken in the first round makes the 1.01 in a dynasty not as valuable this year.....but in fantasy it's not just about talent....situation is huge....we have seen many "so so" backs as far as talent goes, put up great numbers because of the sitaution they are in.... heck if he slips and if he goes to GB in the 7th round and they haven't done anything else at RB....he should still probably go 1.01 in dynasty rookie drafts...of course you would wonder why he lasted that long, but that's not the point...knowing what we know right now, it's more about where he ends up, not what number is next to his name.... I guess I just have a hard time saying his fantasy value rises or falls based on where he is drafted....if he was taken 1.01 last night by the KC, would that have made him a slam dunk 1.01 in dynasty rookie drafts?....I say hell no....had he gone 25 picks+ later to DEN, we'd probably be saying hell yes....

 

[Concept Coop]

I'm kinda conflicted about the Patterson landing spot. It is great on paper, what all the talking heads said, learn from Jennings, do what Harvin did. But there's no staff there to develop him, and the QB situation is muddled long term. Seems like his value's going to drop before it rises. I still believe in the upside, and it should get confirmed through ST play.

Hopkins should get 50-60 receptions next year, and have an arrow pointing up this time next year.

I agree 100% re: Patterson. Hopkins - I'm less certain of than you. He'll be coming off 50 or so receptions with a 2014 outlook of another 50-60, if I had to guess.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I have no problems taking a safe QB over upside in superflex, like Wilson over Tannehill last year and Dalton over Gabbert the previous year. But there's no safe in this draft, outside of Hopkins and Austin. You have to think Manuel has a higher upside at this point, fantasy wise, than Geno and neither is a guarantee for anything.

 

[beef]

Losers

Dyno rookie drafts

 

[Concept Coop]

I have no problems taking a safe QB over upside in superflex, like Wilson over Tannehill last year and Dalton over Gabbert the previous year. But there's no safe in this draft, outside of Hopkins and Austin. You have to think Manuel has a higher upside at this point, fantasy wise, than Geno and neither is a guarantee for anything.

Manuel over Geno in a big way, right now. Manuel is the future of the Bills, right or wrong. The duration will depend on his production, but I'd say three years is a safe bet, at least. Marrone and his staff put their chips on him, and their job security could depend on him panning out.

Anyone drafted after this point could be replaced next year if their team is looking at legit 1st round QB prospect. Again: Jimmy Clausen.

 

[B-Deep]

winner - the name Barkevious

 

[thriftyrocker]

I'm kinda conflicted about the Patterson landing spot. It is great on paper, what all the talking heads said, learn from Jennings, do what Harvin did. But there's no staff there to develop him, and the QB situation is muddled long term. Seems like his value's going to drop before it rises. I still believe in the upside, and it should get confirmed through ST play.

Hopkins should get 50-60 receptions next year, and have an arrow pointing up this time next year.

I agree 100% re: Patterson. Hopkins - I'm less certain of than you. He'll be coming off 50 or so receptions with a 2014 outlook of another 50-60, if I had to guess.

Yeah, Andre is 31. He's not going to last forever, but he should be their WR1 for > 2 years. He's not going to get 110 receptions every year either though. Even in that situation where AJ stays dominant I think Hopkins' role can expand with improved play and degradation from Daniels/Foster. It's nothing to get excited about spending a top 3 pick on but I think he can be a fantasy WR2 relatively soon. 70/1100/7 is pretty attainable.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I have no problems taking a safe QB over upside in superflex, like Wilson over Tannehill last year and Dalton over Gabbert the previous year. But there's no safe in this draft, outside of Hopkins and Austin. You have to think Manuel has a higher upside at this point, fantasy wise, than Geno and neither is a guarantee for anything.

Manuel over Geno in a big way, right now. Manuel is the future of the Bills, right or wrong. The duration will depend on his production, but I'd say three years is a safe bet, at least. Marrone and his staff put their chips on him, and their job security could depend on him panning out.

Anyone drafted after this point could be replaced next year if their team is looking at legit 1st round QB prospect. Again: Jimmy Clausen.

Manuel can be replaced too. Given 1st round picks are cheaper now, you can afford to make mistakes at QB. It's why I'm kinda surprised no one tried. I guess you're allowed to make mistakes on G and T too.

 

[Concept Coop]

Manuel can be replaced too. Given 1st round picks are cheaper now, you can afford to make mistakes at QB. It's why I'm kinda surprised no one tried. I guess you're allowed to make mistakes on G and T too.

We haven't seen it happen yet, despite poor QB play and the new rookie pay scale. The money is huge, but I think it's more than that. It's about credibility with fans and, more importantly, ownership. If you're not sold on Manuel, and are only going to give him a year, you don't draft him in the first round. You can't tell your boss and fanbase that you're going to start over, one year after starting over.

 

[Concept Coop]

Yeah, Andre is 31. He's not going to last forever, but he should be their WR1 for > 2 years. He's not going to get 110 receptions every year either though. Even in that situation where AJ stays dominant I think Hopkins' role can expand with improved play and degradation from Daniels/Foster. It's nothing to get excited about spending a top 3 pick on but I think he can be a fantasy WR2 relatively soon. 70/1100/7 is pretty attainable.

He looks like a an NFL WR2, and went to a situation where that's all he'll be for a couple years, at least. And to a passing offense not likely to support two top 24 WRs anytime soon.

If he was a guy likely to do more per target, I might be a bit excited, having AJ to open things up for him. If he was a slot guy, I'd be more optimistic, even. Nicks and Cruz works, fantasy wise. I think Blackmon and Cruz will work, fantasy wise. But Hopkins will need targets and won’t be lining up in the slot to get them.

I think Houston is a good spot for him NFL wise, not fantasy wise. We’ll see though.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Manuel can be replaced too. Given 1st round picks are cheaper now, you can afford to make mistakes at QB. It's why I'm kinda surprised no one tried. I guess you're allowed to make mistakes on G and T too.

We haven't seen it happen yet, despite poor QB play and the new rookie pay scale. The money is huge, but I think it's more than that. It's about credibility with fans and, more importantly, ownership. If you're not sold on Manuel, and are only going to give him a year, you don't draft him in the first round. You can't tell your boss and fanbase that you're going to start over, one year after starting over.

Jags and Titans didn't take a QB. Those are really the first chances under the new pay scale for a team to just hit reboot, and they didn't. Although JAX could still do so tonight.

Cleveland didn't either. There were rumors, but they didn't. But that's new coach, new GM.

I definitely think JAX is allowed to call Gabbert a bust right now. You're allowed to tell your fans "the previous guy blew it."

I agree there's only a small chance BUF drafts a QB. It'd be a Bradford/RG3 choice. But if they go 0-16 and are looking at Bridgewater, stranger things have happened.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Why is St Louis a good landing spot for Austin? I don't get it, Bradford is a bad fantasy QB, they have no RB to extend drives, the line is ok. Seems like a subpar spot to me.

The line is still a concern, but Bradford has been a bad fantasy QB because he hasn't had consistent, reliable weapons in the passing game. Having three guys with the speed of Austin, Givens and Cook should move him up into the 12-15 range as far as FF quarterbacks go, quite possibly.

 

[Doubtingthomas]

Personally I am looking at taking Eifert at 1.2. With green out wide it seems like he could be a nightmare in the middle being both a ppr and td monster. To many questions still with lacy, austin, and patterson for me. Eifert seems the most likely of the four here to succeed and be special at his position. Clearly if he turns into a graham or gronk you would take him hands down. That might be a bit optimistic but can he produce at wittens level consistently?

 

[EBF]

Personally I am looking at taking Eifert at 1.2. With green out wide it seems like he could be a nightmare in the middle being both a ppr and td monster. To many questions still with lacy, austin, and patterson for me. Eifert seems the most likely of the four here to succeed and be special at his position. Clearly if he turns into a graham or gronk you would take him hands down. That might be a bit optimistic but can he produce at wittens level consistently?

I've got the 1.02 pick in one league and I haven't ruled him out there, as ridiculous as it would feel to take him that high.

My level of confidence in Patterson/Hopkins is not tremendously high.

 

[ghostguy123]

Personally I am looking at taking Eifert at 1.2. With green out wide it seems like he could be a nightmare in the middle being both a ppr and td monster. To many questions still with lacy, austin, and patterson for me. Eifert seems the most likely of the four here to succeed and be special at his position. Clearly if he turns into a graham or gronk you would take him hands down. That might be a bit optimistic but can he produce at wittens level consistently?

Maybe when they get rid of Gresham.

 

[Lab]

I'm going to say Schaub is a winner based on the Hopkins pick. Hopkins isn't really the winner because AJ will still get most of the receptions (with a portion left over for Daniels). But people have been saying for years that Houston needs a quality WR2 to open things up. Walter and Jacoby Jones were never able to offer Schaub much, and Daniels was so often hurt. Yes, the offense still runs through Foster, but perhaps Houston has realized it needs to be more balanced to push further into the playoffs, and so will give Schaub more options to pass.

No, I'm not predicting he will become Brees/Manning/Ryan, but I think a 10% increase in attempts/completions/yards/TDs is realistic. 600/385/4400/25. That might allow him to be in the QB12-15 range for 2013.

 

[Concept Coop]

Personally I am looking at taking Eifert at 1.2. With green out wide it seems like he could be a nightmare in the middle being both a ppr and td monster. To many questions still with lacy, austin, and patterson for me. Eifert seems the most likely of the four here to succeed and be special at his position. Clearly if he turns into a graham or gronk you would take him hands down. That might be a bit optimistic but can he produce at wittens level consistently?

I think you need to trade the pick, then. You can get both Dwayne Allen and Fleener for much less than that. Eifert is likely better than either one of them, but he's playing with Andy Dalton and not Andrew Luck.

I like Eifert and would have been really high on him had he landed in a better spot. But there is so much risk involved with taking him that high. He could have a solid career and never matter much for your fantasy team, like most TEs. His value could very well be less than it is now, a year from now, as he starts out as #2 on the depth chart, and TEs don't contribute much year 1 as it is.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Personally I am looking at taking Eifert at 1.2. With green out wide it seems like he could be a nightmare in the middle being both a ppr and td monster. To many questions still with lacy, austin, and patterson for me. Eifert seems the most likely of the four here to succeed and be special at his position. Clearly if he turns into a graham or gronk you would take him hands down. That might be a bit optimistic but can he produce at wittens level consistently?

Maybe when they get rid of Gresham.

Gresham is a really good NFL player. He might not be fantasy elite, but he's a good TE.

I doubt they move him

 

[Doubtingthomas]

Personally I am looking at taking Eifert at 1.2. With green out wide it seems like he could be a nightmare in the middle being both a ppr and td monster. To many questions still with lacy, austin, and patterson for me. Eifert seems the most likely of the four here to succeed and be special at his position. Clearly if he turns into a graham or gronk you would take him hands down. That might be a bit optimistic but can he produce at wittens level consistently?

Maybe when they get rid of Gresham.

Gresham isn't all that and a cup of tea. Either eifert can beat him out of the job or they go to a two te set using eifert in the slot / pass catching role. If he isn't better then Gresham no sense in taking him there.

 

[Doubtingthomas]

Personally I am looking at taking Eifert at 1.2. With green out wide it seems like he could be a nightmare in the middle being both a ppr and td monster. To many questions still with lacy, austin, and patterson for me. Eifert seems the most likely of the four here to succeed and be special at his position. Clearly if he turns into a graham or gronk you would take him hands down. That might be a bit optimistic but can he produce at wittens level consistently?

I think you need to trade the pick, then. You can get both Dwayne Allen and Fleener for much less than that. Eifert is likely better than either one of them, but he's playing with Andy Dalton and not Andrew Luck. I like Eifert and would have been really high on him had he landed in a better spot. But there is so much risk involved with taking him that high. He could have a solid career and never matter much for your fantasy team, like most TEs. His value could very well be less than it is now, a year from now, as he starts out as #2 on the depth chart, and TEs don't contribute much year 1 as it is.

I am feeling you some here. Unfortunately lots of people now this two and aren't interested in trading up. Not a lot of rams or Viking fans in these parts. Gotta make a pick. Why not swing for a fence here?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Personally I am looking at taking Eifert at 1.2. With green out wide it seems like he could be a nightmare in the middle being both a ppr and td monster. To many questions still with lacy, austin, and patterson for me. Eifert seems the most likely of the four here to succeed and be special at his position. Clearly if he turns into a graham or gronk you would take him hands down. That might be a bit optimistic but can he produce at wittens level consistently?

Maybe when they get rid of Gresham.

Gresham isn't all that and a cup of tea. Either eifert can beat him out of the job or they go to a two te set using eifert in the slot / pass catching role. If he isn't better then Gresham no sense in taking him there.

Any idea where Greshem was drafted?

 

[Rockchild]

Personally I am looking at taking Eifert at 1.2. With green out wide it seems like he could be a nightmare in the middle being both a ppr and td monster. To many questions still with lacy, austin, and patterson for me. Eifert seems the most likely of the four here to succeed and be special at his position. Clearly if he turns into a graham or gronk you would take him hands down. That might be a bit optimistic but can he produce at wittens level consistently?

Maybe when they get rid of Gresham.

Gresham isn't all that and a cup of tea. Either eifert can beat him out of the job or they go to a two te set using eifert in the slot / pass catching role. If he isn't better then Gresham no sense in taking him there.

Any idea where Greshem was drafted?

21st pick in 2010

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

you guys thinking of taking Eifert at 1.02 must have bumped your heads.

lets let tonight play out before we go into full blown panic mode.

 

[ghostguy123]

Personally I am looking at taking Eifert at 1.2. With green out wide it seems like he could be a nightmare in the middle being both a ppr and td monster. To many questions still with lacy, austin, and patterson for me. Eifert seems the most likely of the four here to succeed and be special at his position. Clearly if he turns into a graham or gronk you would take him hands down. That might be a bit optimistic but can he produce at wittens level consistently?

Maybe when they get rid of Gresham.

Gresham is a really good NFL player. He might not be fantasy elite, but he's a good TE.

I doubt they move him

That's kinda my point. That pick hurt both players.

 

[ExaltedOne]

just for fun...say we started the NFL from scratch....right now...every player was available to be drafted...there were no players on any teams....how many RB's do you think would go in the first round..?

In the Build a Franchise draft we did just that. No RBs in round 1. Two in round 2 (Peterson, Richardson). Two in round 3 (Spiller, Martin). None in round 4. Total of 4 in first 4 rounds.

 

[Tau837]

Also Ryan Mathews value should increase, DJ Fluker is a great run blocker.

....or he could be one fumble away from the bench.

Mathews had 2 fumbles in 12 games and 223 touches last season. This issue was completely mishandled by the coaching staff. Fortunately, there is a new coaching staff in place, which hopefully will not be as stupid as Norv and company were last year.

 

[ExaltedOne]

Personally I am looking at taking Eifert at 1.2. With green out wide it seems like he could be a nightmare in the middle being both a ppr and td monster. To many questions still with lacy, austin, and patterson for me. Eifert seems the most likely of the four here to succeed and be special at his position. Clearly if he turns into a graham or gronk you would take him hands down. That might be a bit optimistic but can he produce at wittens level consistently?

Maybe when they get rid of Gresham.

Gresham is a really good NFL player. He might not be fantasy elite, but he's a good TE.

I doubt they move him

That's kinda my point. That pick hurt both players.

Personally I am looking at taking Eifert at 1.2. With green out wide it seems like he could be a nightmare in the middle being both a ppr and td monster. To many questions still with lacy, austin, and patterson for me. Eifert seems the most likely of the four here to succeed and be special at his position. Clearly if he turns into a graham or gronk you would take him hands down. That might be a bit optimistic but can he produce at wittens level consistently?

Maybe when they get rid of Gresham.

Gresham is a really good NFL player. He might not be fantasy elite, but he's a good TE.

I doubt they move him

That's kinda my point. That pick hurt both players.

People don't seem to mind taking Gronk and Hernandez super early despite them being on the same team. Talent trumps situation right?

On the other hand they have Brady throwing to them and don't have an awesome #1 receiver.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Personally I am looking at taking Eifert at 1.2. With green out wide it seems like he could be a nightmare in the middle being both a ppr and td monster. To many questions still with lacy, austin, and patterson for me. Eifert seems the most likely of the four here to succeed and be special at his position. Clearly if he turns into a graham or gronk you would take him hands down. That might be a bit optimistic but can he produce at wittens level consistently?

Maybe when they get rid of Gresham.

Gresham isn't all that and a cup of tea. Either eifert can beat him out of the job or they go to a two te set using eifert in the slot / pass catching role. If he isn't better then Gresham no sense in taking him there.

Any idea where Greshem was drafted?

21st pick in 2010

Exactly.

 

[Gawain]

NFL teams are very good at drafting RB's. I'd have to pull up the exact stats but it's something like only 25% of 2nd round RB's even make the Pro Bowl once while it's 50% for 1st round RB's. That he wasn't drafted in the 1st says a lot about how teams view him. Now they can of course be wrong but we should take it as a sign they have some questions about him.

or that they have bigger needs elsewhere....

in addition one of the teams that had 3 of the 32 picks (MIN) really has no reason at all to look at Lacy even if Lacy was Barry Sanders...there are many other teams who picked (HOU, etc) that RB isn't a need.....it doesn't mean they don't consider Lacy "first round type talent"

and just IMO...."pro bowler" really doesn't mean much.....All Pro would be a better indication.....by the time injuries are taken into account as well as guys just choosing not to go....being a "pro bowl replacement" allows you to say you were a pro bowler....when really your butt was sitting on the sofa before you got the call...

teams using a 1st rounder on a RB doesn't make much sense in today's pass happy NFL

well just last year 3 RBs went in the 1st round. Its not the position, its the talent at this position isnt there this year.

last year two teams traded up to get RBs in round1.

just for fun...say we started the NFL from scratch....right now...every player was available to be drafted...there were no players on any teams....how many RB's do you think would go in the first round..?

They did that on this forum. At least half of the first round was QB's. That tells us nothing about each individual draft.

 

[Kleck]

I don't see Dalton and the Bengals being able to make 2 TEs fantasy relevant like Brady and the Pats have.