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FBG Contest Team Status Updates Page (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ctriopelle
- Start date
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
:reche: 
- Very impressive Turk! 
Happy Thanksgiving to you and to everyone else on the board!
-QGedit to add, as I sidenote, I noticed that I only have 10 out of 22 guys in common with the dude with the LEAST unique team, so maybe I have a tiny glimmer of hope
- Very impressive Turk! Happy Thanksgiving to you and to everyone else on the board!Well my power number is in the low 1100's (ranking me in the high 600's) and I have the distinction of having the 6th Least Unique Team in the entire contest (UQ of over 19)
-QGedit to add, as I sidenote, I noticed that I only have 10 out of 22 guys in common with the dude with the LEAST unique team, so maybe I have a tiny glimmer of hope
Last edited by a moderator:
David Dodds
Administrator
Extremely cool application. Thanks Doug. We will have this going forward (rest of this year and all of next year as well).
Don't worry, everyone. I've already instructed Dodds that he's not allowed to tweak his projections in order to improve his contest power ranking.
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Very Cool - Thanks for all the work that went into this!
Mid 400's PR, average Uniqueness - probably not a threat for the big money, but you never do know...........
Mid 400's PR, average Uniqueness - probably not a threat for the big money, but you never do know...........
Toons
Footballguy
Awesome app -- thanks!!!! Lower 600s in power, but 10th unique (must be the 5 kickers and 3 defenses, because who in their right mind would draft this way).
Averaging 173 over the past three weeks...
So, your saying I have a chance... :X
Happy Thanksgiving everyone -- go Pack!!!!
Averaging 173 over the past three weeks...
So, your saying I have a chance... :X
Happy Thanksgiving everyone -- go Pack!!!!
Toons,Your team is an excellent example of the importance of the UQ. Let's take a look...Your RB core is Thomas Jones, Jamal Lewis, and Marshawn Lynch, which is pretty mediocre. The chance that two or all three of those guys will explode down the stretch is pretty slim. BUT, if it happens, you're in great shape. Only two other live entries have Jones and Lewis. Only five others have Lynch and Lewis. Only seven others have Jones and Lynch. None have that exact threesome. By contrast, 80 entries have both McGahee and Adrian Peterson. So if you have Jones and Lewis and they go off, you only have to be better than two other teams at the other positions. Whereas, if you have McGahee and Peterson and they go off, you have to be better than 79 other teams. A randomly-selected team with the latter pair has a very good chance of finishing ahead of you. But you probably have a better chance of winning the grand prize.Awesome app -- thanks!!!! Lower 600s in power, but 10th unique (must be the 5 kickers and 3 defenses, because who in their right mind would draft this way).Averaging 173 over the past three weeks...So, your saying I have a chance...Happy Thanksgiving everyone -- go Pack!!!!
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Cool. I'm amazed at my team which I figured would be no better than 600th because I have no stud rb's or wr's. But I'm in the top 80 in power rank and have a low UQ. Wow.
Toons
Footballguy
Pretty mediocre is right! That's the same thing I said after my draft -- was hoping to land as many middle of the road players that MAY give me a chance!Thanks again for the app (as well as the late night updates)!ToonsToons,Your team is an excellent example of the importance of the UQ. Let's take a look...Your RB core is Thomas Jones, Jamal Lewis, and Marshawn Lynch, which is pretty mediocre. The chance that two or all three of those guys will explode down the stretch is pretty slim. BUT, if it happens, you're in great shape. Only two other live entries have Jones and Lewis. Only five others have Lynch and Lewis. Only seven others have Jones and Lynch. None have that exact threesome. By contrast, 80 entries have both McGahee and Adrian Peterson. So if you have Jones and Lewis and they go off, you only have to be better than two other teams at the other positions. Whereas, if you have McGahee and Peterson and they go off, you have to be better than 79 other teams. A randomly-selected team with the latter pair has a very good chance of finishing ahead of you. But you probably have a better chance of winning the grand prize.Awesome app -- thanks!!!! Lower 600s in power, but 10th unique (must be the 5 kickers and 3 defenses, because who in their right mind would draft this way).Averaging 173 over the past three weeks...So, your saying I have a chance...Happy Thanksgiving everyone -- go Pack!!!!
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Awesome!
I am 575th in power and 567th in uniqueness, meaning I am likely looking at a middle of the road finish. I'll have a hard time getting by this week with my only RB being Foster.
I am 575th in power and 567th in uniqueness, meaning I am likely looking at a middle of the road finish. I'll have a hard time getting by this week with my only RB being Foster.
Except in certain obvious cases, there would be no way to know. The obvious cases are guys like Frank Gore last year and David Garrard this year, where there was a drastic situation change between when the prices were set and when the rosters were locked [aside: doesn't it seem like a whole lot more than 14 months ago that Kevan Barlow was a probable starter for an NFL team?] But, of course, those guys were obvious picks precisely because they were great bargains, so it's not necessarily a bad strategy to pick them. To win, you'll probably need power and uniqueness. To put yourself in a position to have both at this point, you need to be a lot smarter than everyone else or a lot luckier.
Finatic
Footballguy
I would be amazed if I made it past this week,but it has been a blast and I have learned alot for 2008......Doug, I would also like to give you props for the extra work and late night/early AM updates.. this contest has been alot of fun to be a part of...........Fin
Great information - very interesting - thanks.Just wondering how the predictive accuracy could be measured for (1) surviving the next 2 weeks, and (2) winning the contest (or finishing in the top-10, etc.).
For the first issue, you could look at the survival rates (to the final 250) for each 100 teams according to their power ranking. Very high accuracy would be something like:
Top-100 = 75% (75 of the teams ranked in the top-100 survive to the final 250)
2nd 100 = 50%
3rd 100 = 35%
4th 100 = 25%
5th 100 = 20%
6th 100 = 15%
7th 100 = 12%
8th 100 = 9%
9th 100 = 6%
Bottom 100 = 3%
I would think the actual predictive accuracy would be something less than this -- lower survival rates for the highest-ranked teams and higher survival rates for the average and bottom ranked teams -- but I don't have a good feel for it -- the actual survival rates for the highest-ranked teams might be higher than the above.
More stats for your holiday enjoyment
I finally made a web page out of the current percent ownership reports I had been posting in this thread. And I added a bit called "relative elimination rates" for each player for each week. For example, here is Tom Brady:
Player price %OWN %LIVE 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Tom Brady $26 6.5 14.2 | 83 38 90 21 26 9 44 202 499 32If the number under a given week is 100, it would mean that owners of that player were eliminated at exactly the same rate as the general population for that week. If it's under 100, it means that the owners of that player were less likely to have been eliminated than the general contest population. If over 100, owners of that player had a rough week.So Brady's 83 under week 2 means that Brady owners were eliminated a rate 17% less than the overall elimination rate for week 2. In week 9 (Brady vs the Colts), Brady owners were about twice as likely to be eliminated as was the general population. In his bye week, Brady owners were 5 times more likely to be eliminated.
I finally made a web page out of the current percent ownership reports I had been posting in this thread. And I added a bit called "relative elimination rates" for each player for each week. For example, here is Tom Brady:
Player price %OWN %LIVE 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Tom Brady $26 6.5 14.2 | 83 38 90 21 26 9 44 202 499 32If the number under a given week is 100, it would mean that owners of that player were eliminated at exactly the same rate as the general population for that week. If it's under 100, it means that the owners of that player were less likely to have been eliminated than the general contest population. If over 100, owners of that player had a rough week.So Brady's 83 under week 2 means that Brady owners were eliminated a rate 17% less than the overall elimination rate for week 2. In week 9 (Brady vs the Colts), Brady owners were about twice as likely to be eliminated as was the general population. In his bye week, Brady owners were 5 times more likely to be eliminated.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Zero Torry Holt owners left. Wow.
Binky The Doormat
Footballguy
Doug
Thanks - this is very cool.
Thanks - this is very cool.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Us 164 Hanson owners are loving this so far. 15 points already.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
0.00 with only everyone left to go! 
Wonder what the Turkey Day Cut Line Will Be
Hopefully the Turk will be wise to kick back, have some Turkey Day dessert and take a deserved break! All the new toys are way cool though
Hope everyone had a great day today.
-QG
(Proud to be one of the 8 remaining Heap owners in this thing)
Wonder what the Turkey Day Cut Line Will Be
Hopefully the Turk will be wise to kick back, have some Turkey Day dessert and take a deserved break! All the new toys are way cool though
Hope everyone had a great day today.
-QG
(Proud to be one of the 8 remaining Heap owners in this thing)
I added a Similar Teams feature to the power rankings page. You can now look at the five other contest teams that are most similar to yours.
E.g. these two teams are pretty similar:
E.g. these two teams are pretty similar:
Code:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Drew Brees $21 8.20 19.00 8.15 0.00 10.60 24.30 22.75 40.80 40.95 23.60 19.10 Joey Harrington $6 8.75 10.20 30.45 23.05 3.35 9.55 6.40 0.00 7.30 16.20 12.95 Daunte Culpepper $4 0.00 0.00 5.90 36.55 0.00 16.00 16.80 8.25 0.00 0.00 22.20 David Garrard $2 18.60 21.60 18.90 0.00 17.80 25.65 3.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.85 Willie Parker $44 11.20 20.30 14.70 8.60 10.20 0.00 13.70 20.40 6.40 12.30 5.20 Willis McGahee $29 12.60 17.30 14.10 14.60 17.10 15.00 18.50 0.00 13.70 14.00 19.60 Cadillac Williams $21 8.40 18.10 11.40 4.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Ladell Betts $14 8.00 5.00 2.70 0.00 4.00 4.60 1.20 0.90 6.40 0.50 1.90 Tony Hunt $1 0.00 0.00 6.10 0.70 0.00 0.50 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 Lee Evans $29 2.50 3.70 1.70 13.20 2.20 0.00 14.80 24.80 31.50 10.50 8.00 Marques Colston $27 10.70 21.00 10.80 0.00 7.10 7.20 7.50 34.50 25.90 20.90 20.80 Vincent Jackson $17 5.80 9.30 21.80 8.20 17.40 1.50 0.00 0.00 2.60 4.80 3.00 Santonio Holmes $14 14.60 8.30 7.90 30.70 0.00 0.00 17.40 14.90 27.00 9.10 18.50 Ronald Curry $8 29.30 3.20 15.20 2.60 0.00 13.30 14.50 7.50 3.20 5.00 16.00 Wes Welker $3 18.10 17.70 12.90 7.90 5.90 35.40 34.80 23.90 14.80 0.00 15.10 Eric Johnson $1 17.70 6.30 9.80 0.00 10.50 10.20 12.90 5.90 8.70 14.30 4.70 Alex Smith $1 5.30 7.50 7.20 7.70 15.60 3.00 0.00 0.00 4.30 0.00 15.60 Jason Elam $3 13.00 11.00 2.00 9.00 4.00 0.00 9.00 9.00 1.00 14.00 11.00 Neil Rackers $2 6.00 16.00 17.00 3.00 14.00 7.00 1.00 0.00 6.00 7.00 5.00 John Kasay $1 11.00 3.00 13.00 1.00 14.00 18.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 8.00 5.00 Arizona Cardinals $1 5.00 3.00 6.00 14.00 14.00 2.00 3.00 0.00 3.00 14.00 23.00 Tennessee Titans $1 4.00 4.00 17.00 0.00 12.00 2.00 14.00 9.00 11.00 3.00 3.00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------TOTAL 150.80 152.80 164.35 150.45 129.60 134.35 172.35 184.10 185.95 137.70 167.00 CUTOFF 0.00 128.30 131.50 113.40 102.30 118.70 125.95 118.00 148.15 121.15 152.15 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Drew Brees $21 8.20 19.00 8.15 0.00 10.60 24.30 22.75 40.80 40.95 23.60 19.10 Alex Smith $12 9.90 6.20 18.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.10 4.45 6.30 0.00 David Garrard $2 18.60 21.60 18.90 0.00 17.80 25.65 3.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.85 Willie Parker $44 11.20 20.30 14.70 8.60 10.20 0.00 13.70 20.40 6.40 12.30 5.20 Willis McGahee $29 12.60 17.30 14.10 14.60 17.10 15.00 18.50 0.00 13.70 14.00 19.60 DeShaun Foster $13 10.60 6.20 26.00 9.60 5.90 5.90 0.00 13.20 7.90 6.90 11.30 Dominic Rhodes $3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.60 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.10 Lee Evans $29 2.50 3.70 1.70 13.20 2.20 0.00 14.80 24.80 31.50 10.50 8.00 Marques Colston $27 10.70 21.00 10.80 0.00 7.10 7.20 7.50 34.50 25.90 20.90 20.80 Bernard Berrian $16 13.30 11.50 13.30 17.90 2.00 18.80 10.50 8.50 0.00 18.90 19.20 Santonio Holmes $14 14.60 8.30 7.90 30.70 0.00 0.00 17.40 14.90 27.00 9.10 18.50 Troy Williamson $4 4.20 4.30 0.00 4.30 0.00 14.90 3.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.00 Demetrius Williams $3 8.50 2.30 8.20 11.30 7.90 6.50 2.80 0.00 0.00 1.50 0.00 Jason Witten $19 26.60 5.70 24.00 22.10 29.80 9.20 23.60 0.00 18.20 4.20 18.70 Eric Johnson $1 17.70 6.30 9.80 0.00 10.50 10.20 12.90 5.90 8.70 14.30 4.70 Alex Smith $1 5.30 7.50 7.20 7.70 15.60 3.00 0.00 0.00 4.30 0.00 15.60 Jason Elam $3 13.00 11.00 2.00 9.00 4.00 0.00 9.00 9.00 1.00 14.00 11.00 Neil Rackers $2 6.00 16.00 17.00 3.00 14.00 7.00 1.00 0.00 6.00 7.00 5.00 John Kasay $1 11.00 3.00 13.00 1.00 14.00 18.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 8.00 5.00 Miami Dolphins $4 6.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 6.00 3.00 9.00 3.00 0.00 4.00 12.00 Tennessee Titans $1 4.00 4.00 17.00 0.00 12.00 2.00 14.00 9.00 11.00 3.00 3.00 Houston Texans $1 17.00 15.00 7.00 2.00 3.00 7.00 11.00 1.00 7.00 0.00 7.00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------TOTAL 155.30 144.80 164.00 131.40 133.70 131.85 157.15 181.00 190.85 141.60 168.55 CUTOFF 0.00 128.30 131.50 113.40 102.30 118.70 125.95 118.00 148.15 121.15 152.15The Duff Man
Footballguy
The similar teams feature is pretty neat. My most matched team has 13 common players.
QB - We both have Garcia, Garrard, Harrington - I also have Roethlisberger
RB - We both have Lynch and Jacobs out, he has McGahee and I have Foster
WR - We both have Galloway and Holmes. He has Calvin Johnson and DJ Hackett as his heavy hitters, I have Evans, Berrian, Edwards
TE - We both have Graham and Johnson, he has Des Clark, I have Scaife
K - We both have Lindell and Longwell, I have another kicker
D - We both have CLE, HOU, he has ARI
Do you wanna trade teams straight up?
QB - We both have Garcia, Garrard, Harrington - I also have Roethlisberger
RB - We both have Lynch and Jacobs out, he has McGahee and I have Foster
WR - We both have Galloway and Holmes. He has Calvin Johnson and DJ Hackett as his heavy hitters, I have Evans, Berrian, Edwards
TE - We both have Graham and Johnson, he has Des Clark, I have Scaife
K - We both have Lindell and Longwell, I have another kicker
D - We both have CLE, HOU, he has ARI
Do you wanna trade teams straight up?
Kirby
Footballguy
209Power 1194
UQ 106
Not bad... it be cool to make the finals two years in a row.
Decent start this week.. Farve, Addai, Hanson over 70 points after turkey day.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Getting things going for the late games today.
Looking at the stats from prior weeks for the remaining players, our average 50th percentile to date is about 155. Don't get comfy this week until you get well into the 160's, scoring looks to be around average to a little above average.
Sitting on 145ish here, and starting to feel very nervous. With my designed RB shortage (Bush, AD, McGahee) looks like I might get bit this week...Hopefully AD makes it back next week if I move on!
Looking at the stats from prior weeks for the remaining players, our average 50th percentile to date is about 155. Don't get comfy this week until you get well into the 160's, scoring looks to be around average to a little above average.
Sitting on 145ish here, and starting to feel very nervous. With my designed RB shortage (Bush, AD, McGahee) looks like I might get bit this week...Hopefully AD makes it back next week if I move on!
So you figure a buck 70 is safe. If so I will be here next week.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
170 should be plenty safe. Some players had some great games, but I didn't notice any hugely popular ones. Betting the unofficial pre-MNF number will be somewhere in the low 150's tomorrow morning.
Thanks for the update. I just have to hang on for one more week.
-OZ-
Footballguy
That won't be good, unless Welker goes off for me. 131.25 with Welker and Hunt left. Holmes, Jacobs and Peterson out hurts.
Here's hoping to Welker takes Moss's place this week.
rustycolts
Footballguy
Not looking good for the home team.138.30 with Fast Willie -.30 and Heath Miller -8.60 to go.Got to hope they have a monster game against Miami.Anyway its been fun good luck to all who make cut this week.
The Man Who Met Andy Griffith
Footballguy
164.20 with Welker (-4.3)
I think the final cut line will be pretty high, probably around 170. I don't think MNF will change it much with Santonio Holmes out.
I think the final cut line will be pretty high, probably around 170. I don't think MNF will change it much with Santonio Holmes out.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Wow, laid a huge egg this week. My lowest score of the year by about 40%. Good luck to everyone else.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
FYI, last year's cut to 500 from 1000 was 157.8. Please note that this was under a format with one less starter, more rigid rosters, and different PPR rules. If Welker goes big tonight, the cut probably inflates pretty high. Highest 50th percentile of this group all year is 182, but that was the week 50+% of all players had ADP go off for 50 points, and scoring that week in general was stupid high. Lots of big NFL scores this week, but as stated earlier, many of the big numbers came from unpopular and even unavailable players. GB Devin Hester for knocking off the broncos as well as getting me some seriously needed D points!
173.8 + Welker/S. Holmes -11.5/12.3. Fully expecting that to make it to next week, but it's gonna be awfully close...
173.8 + Welker/S. Holmes -11.5/12.3. Fully expecting that to make it to next week, but it's gonna be awfully close...
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
153.75 + FWP -1 + Miller -10.80 = Gonna be close again. I need a huge night from Fast Willie.
Good Luck to All
Good Luck to All
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
looks like curtains for me127.2 plus (Welker minus 7.1)
(I'm figuring it's a given that Hunt and S Holmes will be good for nothing. Hunt would need to beat Foster's 2.1 to count)
Been fun but I think the Turk is gonna claim me before they even kickoff on Monday :(
*sigh*
-QG
ctriopelle
Footballguy
190.2 and done unless Holmes plays tomorrow. Big Welker night helped out a lot of teams for sure. Looks like I made the final 500 2 years in a row, but I will be really impressed if I can jump into the final 250!
GL to the other 499 moving on!
GL to the other 499 moving on!
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
178.1 and done. Hopefully that's enough. Didn't expect to get this far, another week is gravy. Lewis, James, and Foster are my only remaining rb's.
