FBG Futures (1 Viewer)

[Jeff Pasquino]

Here is a link to a Top 120 Keeper List for 2008. It is sort of a hybrid of ADP for next year and a Dynasty perspective, but it should be an interesting read (or look) for many of you:

FBG Futures

It is subscriber content, but feel free to take a look and we'll talk about some of it.

 

[IndyHavoc]

First thing that stood out? Holt is grossly undervalued in this chart. Guy is having a decent season when nearly everything that could go wrong...did. Less than 100%, check. O-line completely obliterated by injuries, check. All-pro RB goes down with injury, check. QB gets KEY-rocked early and often and is completely a shell of himself, check. Do you really, honestly thing he's going to do WORSE next year?

Because you've got him in the 4th bracket with some WR3's like Wes Welker and Chris Henry. Yipes! Jeff, are you seeing a complete collapse of the Rams offense next year...beyond what we've witnessed this year?

 

[Modog814]

First thing that stood out? Holt is grossly undervalued in this chart. Guy is having a decent season when nearly everything that could go wrong...did. Less than 100%, check. O-line completely obliterated by injuries, check. All-pro RB goes down with injury, check. QB gets KEY-rocked early and often and is completely a shell of himself, check. Do you really, honestly thing he's going to do WORSE next year?Because you've got him in the 4th bracket with some WR3's like Wes Welker and Chris Henry. Yipes! Jeff, are you seeing a complete collapse of the Rams offense next year...beyond what we've witnessed this year?

Doesn't he have some knee isssues?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

First thing that stood out? Holt is grossly undervalued in this chart. Guy is having a decent season when nearly everything that could go wrong...did. Less than 100%, check. O-line completely obliterated by injuries, check. All-pro RB goes down with injury, check. QB gets KEY-rocked early and often and is completely a shell of himself, check. Do you really, honestly thing he's going to do WORSE next year?Because you've got him in the 4th bracket with some WR3's like Wes Welker and Chris Henry. Yipes! Jeff, are you seeing a complete collapse of the Rams offense next year...beyond what we've witnessed this year?

Interesting observation. Two things on Holt:1. He's not a WR1 next year, so I had 12 guys above him and he fell into the next tier. Some of the names he is mixed in with are no slouches, so I don't quite understand why you have such a big issue with it, but ok. I have him at a fantasy WR2 (near the top of that, but still....) because....2. He's one year older in 2008. His QBs are getting hit more than a piñata on Cinco de Mayo. He also doesn't have a solid WR2 to take pressure off of him and his knees are aging faster than the rest of his body. Remember that Holt was diagnosed with a knee problem that was labeled as possibly chronic in nature. That's not a good word. Better than "bone on bone", but still not good. I expect him to struggle in the off-season to work out as he rests the knee and possibly gets it worked on in some way. I think he definitely regresses next year.

 

[benm3218]

I was suprised to see Holmes above Calvin Johnson. I have SAntonio so it would be nice.

Is it because you see Homes as exploding next yr or because you have little confidence in CJ?

 

[zamboni]

I am surprised that Foster is in a group with Maroney, Kevin Jones, Travis Henry, Jacobs, and Mikey Turner. This may be the end of the line for DeShaun's starting days.

 

[mikel0254]

Jeff - Just to get a feel for your chart (as I've never seen it before), I have a question about the "tiers" you have... Would you say a QB with an "A-" rating is a better keeper than a RB with a "B+" rating? Etc...

For instance, in your eyes, is Manning, Romo, and Palmer worth more to your QB corps than FWP, SJax, LJ, etc is worth to your RB corps? Would you keep those QB's over those RB's?

 

[PranksterJD]

First thing that stood out? Holt is grossly undervalued in this chart. Guy is having a decent season when nearly everything that could go wrong...did. Less than 100%, check. O-line completely obliterated by injuries, check. All-pro RB goes down with injury, check. QB gets KEY-rocked early and often and is completely a shell of himself, check. Do you really, honestly thing he's going to do WORSE next year?Because you've got him in the 4th bracket with some WR3's like Wes Welker and Chris Henry. Yipes! Jeff, are you seeing a complete collapse of the Rams offense next year...beyond what we've witnessed this year?

I dunno. I think he's about right where he is. I might argue that guys like Colston and Williams might not belong in the tier above, and that some of the guys (Henry, etc) don't belong on the same level as Holt, but I don't think Torry belongs on the same level as Smith, Boldin and 85.Maybe it would be helpful in next year's version to include a numeric grading scale, similar to F&L's Dynasty Thread. E.g., Torry and Henry may both be "B" level players , but if Holt is an "89" and Henry is an "80" then it shows a more tangible difference than just having one guy listed a couple lines above another.

 

[PranksterJD]

Jeff - Just to get a feel for your chart (as I've never seen it before), I have a question about the "tiers" you have... Would you say a QB with an "A-" rating is a better keeper than a RB with a "B+" rating? Etc... For instance, in your eyes, is Manning, Romo, and Palmer worth more to your QB corps than FWP, SJax, LJ, etc is worth to your RB corps? Would you keep those QB's over those RB's?

Remember when your teacher used to tell you to read the whole test?

 

[jonboltz]

Holt is definately low...he's still the WR8 this year, with a revolving door of awful QB play and an inconsistent/injured running game.

Foster -- how is this guy here? I cannot imagine him to approach the carries next year he'd need to get to rate this high.

Chris Henry -- entirely too high for a guy that is WR3 for his team. If I owned Henry, who would I like to trade him for... Bowe? Yes Hackett? Yes Calvin, Evans, White? Yes x 3.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I was suprised to see Holmes above Calvin Johnson. I have SAntonio so it would be nice. Is it because you see Homes as exploding next yr or because you have little confidence in CJ?

They are one tier apart, so the separation isn't huge.You have to respect what Holmes has done this year and at the same time what CJ2 hasn't. Calvin has 3 other WRs who are competing for the ball, including a solid #1 in Roy Williams. Ward is also a good #1 in Pitt, but he's more of a possession guy. Calvin and Roy are the same style of receiver which makes it tough to start a complimentary one on the other side.Longer term I like CJ2 more, but for 2008 I'd say Holmes by just a little.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I am surprised that Foster is in a group with Maroney, Kevin Jones, Travis Henry, Jacobs, and Mikey Turner. This may be the end of the line for DeShaun's starting days.

DeAngelo Williams owners would be happy to hear this, but all things considered he hasn't done much to push Foster. Foster has been the primary back for Carolina and I don't think Fox would change that next year based on how little Williams has done this season.I'm not a big fan of Foster - I like DeW way more - but you can't deny his status at this time and the likelihood that it continues into 2008.Personally I hope that I'm wrong on that one.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Jeff - Just to get a feel for your chart (as I've never seen it before), I have a question about the "tiers" you have... Would you say a QB with an "A-" rating is a better keeper than a RB with a "B+" rating? Etc...

For instance, in your eyes, is Manning, Romo, and Palmer worth more to your QB corps than FWP, SJax, LJ, etc is worth to your RB corps? Would you keep those QB's over those RB's?

Hi mikel,You haven't seen it before because it is brand new. A few subscribers asked for more Keeper info, so I made this just for them. Hopefully you get some value out of it.

As for your second question.....

The chart is broken into "Letter Grades" for each position, with mostly "A" and "B" grade players appearing on the list. Running backs and wide receivers are typically more valuable in most leagues, so the "C+" level was also included. Here is a summary of the list:

and

As for how to intertwine the groups, I leave that to each owner to determine based on their own leagues and scoring. Take a look at your 2007 league and see where each position lines up for the scoring for the year. For example, is the 20th RB about even with the fifth QB and the 25th WR? Then those tiers should be about the same value.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

First thing that stood out? Holt is grossly undervalued in this chart. Guy is having a decent season when nearly everything that could go wrong...did. Less than 100%, check. O-line completely obliterated by injuries, check. All-pro RB goes down with injury, check. QB gets KEY-rocked early and often and is completely a shell of himself, check. Do you really, honestly thing he's going to do WORSE next year?Because you've got him in the 4th bracket with some WR3's like Wes Welker and Chris Henry. Yipes! Jeff, are you seeing a complete collapse of the Rams offense next year...beyond what we've witnessed this year?

I dunno. I think he's about right where he is. I might argue that guys like Colston and Williams might not belong in the tier above, and that some of the guys (Henry, etc) don't belong on the same level as Holt, but I don't think Torry belongs on the same level as Smith, Boldin and 85.Maybe it would be helpful in next year's version to include a numeric grading scale, similar to F&L's Dynasty Thread. E.g., Torry and Henry may both be "B" level players , but if Holt is an "89" and Henry is an "80" then it shows a more tangible difference than just having one guy listed a couple lines above another.

I see good and bad reasons to numerically rate players. On the good side you do have more finite methods of separation, but on the bad side the utility of the chart goes down. What I mean here is that this chart can be used across multiple league formats. Start 2 QB? It still works. Start 3 WR? Still works. Just compare players within tiers at a particular position. To compare those at different positions, use historical league scoring (i.e. does QB5 = RB15 = WR20).

 

[PC Load Letter]

Why is Westbrook (with injury history and no certain QB for the '08 season) ranked above Addai?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Why is Westbrook (with injury history and no certain QB for the '08 season) ranked above Addai?

Why is the sky blue?Westbrook is better across the board.

 

[PC Load Letter]

Why is Westbrook (with injury history and no certain QB for the '08 season) ranked above Addai?

Why is the sky blue?Westbrook is better across the board.

I know we're splitting hairs considering their rankings, but I think Addai will have a better '08 than Westbrook.

 

[Wadsworth]

Thanks for the list.

I think McGahee is continually undervalued. With AARP McNair trying to still pretend he's an NFL QB, Ogden missing time and Heap out almost all season he's put up top 5 numbers at least in my league. He's had 100 yards or a TD in evey game this season so at least double digit scoring every week. He'll be 28 next season so he should be in his prime and I'd rank him as good a bet as any RB not in your top tier. Flashy is nice but there's something to be said for a RB that bangs out the fantasy point week in and week out.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Why is Westbrook (with injury history and no certain QB for the '08 season) ranked above Addai?

Why is the sky blue?Westbrook is better across the board.

I know we're splitting hairs considering their rankings, but I think Addai will have a better '08 than Westbrook.

I was gonna say - debate the best RBs all you want, they are all keepers....

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Thanks for the list. I think McGahee is continually undervalued. With AARP McNair trying to still pretend he's an NFL QB, Ogden missing time and Heap out almost all season he's put up top 5 numbers at least in my league. He's had 100 yards or a TD in evey game this season so at least double digit scoring every week. He'll be 28 next season so he should be in his prime and I'd rank him as good a bet as any RB not in your top tier. Flashy is nice but there's something to be said for a RB that bangs out the fantasy point week in and week out.

I really like McGahee. I would have him on several more of my teams this year but I was fortunate enough to grab Westbrook in many places and then I decided to play RB2 by committee. That said, I called him as having a huge upside and pegged him as one of the most likely RB2s from this past summer to finish in the Top 12. Check out the FBG Magazine, I wrote the player high side for him.As for his ranking going forward, I could see him as a RB1 for many. Without giving away too much, you'll notice that he is in the largest tier of RBs (or any player / position group) as there are pluses and minuses for all of those backs. At that point it comes down to personal preferences and league setup. I wouldn't have him too high in "big play" leagues where you get distance bonuses for long TDs, but for those who give bonuses for 100+ yards and (surprising to some) PPR leagues he gets a boost.As PCLL pointed out earlier, debating the top RBs isn't usually worthwhile as it often comes down to personal opinion.

 

[Mister CIA]

I think you are much too generous to put Thomas Jones up so high.

He's a bust this year; He'll be 30 next year with a decent amount wear on his tread; Leon Washington could get more carries next year; the Jets may draft their RB of the future next spring. No thanks.

 

[OddibeMcD]

A few points, questions and thoughts:

First, for those of us in leagues that are based on "paying" a round to keep a player, it would fit to have the number of people per grade = the number of picks in that round. This is because the expectation that one could redraft that player in the round would still be there. From your form, there are 7 "A" players. This would correllate to the number of picks in the first round...if you have one of these players, (and they were drafted in the first round), you should keep them with your first round pick. However, the converse of this claims that if you have a player such as Addai to be kept with your first round pick, you should let him go...because he is an "A-" talent, or a second round pick. This fails though, because a player such as Addai would most likely be the first player off the board in a keeper league such as this.

To explain, if the first round last year, in a ten team league, progressed as LT, LJ, Gore, Addai, SA, Westbrook, Jackson, Parker, Bush and Manning, then the A rating asserts that only two of those players (LT & Westbrook) should be kept in the first round. However, this is not the best play, especially if you have a later first round pick. If you picked Addai in the first round last year, then lost in your league Super Bowl, you must keep him. Addai will be off the board by the time your pick would come and you would receive a lesser player in exchange. I would change the grading ranking system to a by-round ranking system. This should be able to be done through the use of projections for 2008 (I realize rankings are not done yet and am in no way disparaging your work. I think it is great that you are providing more keeper content). In fact, the most honest assesment would be done by pick...if you have pick 1.9, these 8 players offer greater value than pick 1.9. Thus, if you have one of these players (or these 8 are being kept), then you should keep your player at 1.9, but if not, then you should free up pick 1.9.

Secondly, if you do work on this, I know there are a few of us 2-QB fools. It would be nice to see FBG go a little deeper in the QB ranks. (Sadly, guys like Kellen Clemens, Cleo Lemon and David Carr all get started in these leagues). Moreover, it may be worth more to keep a player such as Trent Edwards in the last round of the draft than it is to keep Jeff Garcia in round 8. It is difficult to determine this if Edwards isn't ranked.

Lastly, it would be really awesome to link this through the pick value calculator. That could give a definable value as to how much more (or less) value a player who is kept at pick 2.5, but valued at pick 1.5 has over a player kept at 14.6, but is valued at 5.9.

Great work Mr. P, a fun read and I think this could be a real resource for people in 3-8 man keeper leagues.

Edit: There would be an additional piece to taking this to a keeper league that I was thinking about. The pick calculator would have to be used to project not only your keepers, but the keepers on everyone else's team as well. That way, you identify the players who will be kept and by what round. This then goes into projecting who will be available at your pick. If a player has the best player in the draft, but is keeping the player in the fourth round, then the draft order will have to be adjusted. Instead of pick 1.9 being worth the ninth best player, it will actually be worth the tenth best player. This would be extended for every player that is kept that is better than your pick. If the top thirty players are kept, then the correct play may be to keep the thirty first player available ahead of where he is projected to be kept, even if this is at a pick above the projected value of the player. Simply saying that a player is a specific value may be a bit of over simplification.

 

[BassNBrew]

Interesting Jeff...personally I think 2007 is too fresh in your mind and impacting your rankings.

 

[zamboni]

I am surprised that Foster is in a group with Maroney, Kevin Jones, Travis Henry, Jacobs, and Mikey Turner. This may be the end of the line for DeShaun's starting days.

DeAngelo Williams owners would be happy to hear this, but all things considered he hasn't done much to push Foster. Foster has been the primary back for Carolina and I don't think Fox would change that next year based on how little Williams has done this season.I'm not a big fan of Foster - I like DeW way more - but you can't deny his status at this time and the likelihood that it continues into 2008.Personally I hope that I'm wrong on that one.

Maybe, but by the same token, Foster hasn't done a whole lot, and there are rumblings that DWill will get more carries down the stretch.Granted, we've heard that before, but in either case, I think the running game will not be left to Foster as the lead sled dog next year. Just a hunch, but I think they either give DWill the chance to prove his 1st round meddle, draft another one, or go the FA route.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I think you are much too generous to put Thomas Jones up so high. He's a bust this year; He'll be 30 next year with a decent amount wear on his tread; Leon Washington could get more carries next year; the Jets may draft their RB of the future next spring. No thanks.

While I haven't watched every carry for Jones this year, I am not sure I get the "bust" label. He has nearly 1,000 total yards and has over 800 yards rushing - making him a Top 25 RB for the season to date - and that is with just one TD. That might be why he gets the bust label - one score. However, he's doing all the work on a struggling team and he should be the feature back again next season.The analogy here is at TE for 2006 - Jason Witten. Witten was well below most fantasy players' radars because he had only 1 TD last season - but he still had good reception and yardage numbers. If he had gotten the typical 5-7 TDs for a TE1 no one would have flinched at a TE1 rating for this season. The same applies for 2008 - TJones will be the feature back, getting 250+ carries, 30 or so catches and certainly more TDs then he has this year. To further the point, what if TJ had 6 TDs rather than one right now? He'd be a Top 12 RB and there'd be no chance you could call him a bust.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I am surprised that Foster is in a group with Maroney, Kevin Jones, Travis Henry, Jacobs, and Mikey Turner. This may be the end of the line for DeShaun's starting days.

DeAngelo Williams owners would be happy to hear this, but all things considered he hasn't done much to push Foster. Foster has been the primary back for Carolina and I don't think Fox would change that next year based on how little Williams has done this season.I'm not a big fan of Foster - I like DeW way more - but you can't deny his status at this time and the likelihood that it continues into 2008.Personally I hope that I'm wrong on that one.

Maybe, but by the same token, Foster hasn't done a whole lot, and there are rumblings that DWill will get more carries down the stretch.Granted, we've heard that before, but in either case, I think the running game will not be left to Foster as the lead sled dog next year. Just a hunch, but I think they either give DWill the chance to prove his 1st round meddle, draft another one, or go the FA route.

As a DeW fan, it pains me to have to defend the case for Foster. Next thing you know I'll be defending Julius Jones.Foster has fewer than 1,000 career touches and isn't even 28 years old yet, so there is plenty of tread left. Also the biggest knock on him was that he was injury prone - and he hasn't missed a game all season. He even got his bell rung this past week and he's still likely to go on Sunday.I wouldn't scream about bumping him down one tier possibly, but I also don't have major issues with putting his 2008 value where I did. If you don't like that level and own him - I suggest trading him before next summer rolls around.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

A few points, questions and thoughts:

First, for those of us in leagues that are based on "paying" a round to keep a player, it would fit to have the number of people per grade = the number of picks in that round. This is because the expectation that one could redraft that player in the round would still be there. From your form, there are 7 "A" players. This would correllate to the number of picks in the first round...if you have one of these players, (and they were drafted in the first round), you should keep them with your first round pick. However, the converse of this claims that if you have a player such as Addai to be kept with your first round pick, you should let him go...because he is an "A-" talent, or a second round pick. This fails though, because a player such as Addai would most likely be the first player off the board in a keeper league such as this.

To explain, if the first round last year, in a ten team league, progressed as LT, LJ, Gore, Addai, SA, Westbrook, Jackson, Parker, Bush and Manning, then the A rating asserts that only two of those players (LT & Westbrook) should be kept in the first round. However, this is not the best play, especially if you have a later first round pick. If you picked Addai in the first round last year, then lost in your league Super Bowl, you must keep him. Addai will be off the board by the time your pick would come and you would receive a lesser player in exchange. I would change the grading ranking system to a by-round ranking system. This should be able to be done through the use of projections for 2008 (I realize rankings are not done yet and am in no way disparaging your work. I think it is great that you are providing more keeper content). In fact, the most honest assesment would be done by pick...if you have pick 1.9, these 8 players offer greater value than pick 1.9. Thus, if you have one of these players (or these 8 are being kept), then you should keep your player at 1.9, but if not, then you should free up pick 1.9.

Secondly, if you do work on this, I know there are a few of us 2-QB fools. It would be nice to see FBG go a little deeper in the QB ranks. (Sadly, guys like Kellen Clemens, Cleo Lemon and David Carr all get started in these leagues). Moreover, it may be worth more to keep a player such as Trent Edwards in the last round of the draft than it is to keep Jeff Garcia in round 8. It is difficult to determine this if Edwards isn't ranked.

Lastly, it would be really awesome to link this through the pick value calculator. That could give a definable value as to how much more (or less) value a player who is kept at pick 2.5, but valued at pick 1.5 has over a player kept at 14.6, but is valued at 5.9.

Great work Mr. P, a fun read and I think this could be a real resource for people in 3-8 man keeper leagues.

Edit: There would be an additional piece to taking this to a keeper league that I was thinking about. The pick calculator would have to be used to project not only your keepers, but the keepers on everyone else's team as well. That way, you identify the players who will be kept and by what round. This then goes into projecting who will be available at your pick. If a player has the best player in the draft, but is keeping the player in the fourth round, then the draft order will have to be adjusted. Instead of pick 1.9 being worth the ninth best player, it will actually be worth the tenth best player. This would be extended for every player that is kept that is better than your pick. If the top thirty players are kept, then the correct play may be to keep the thirty first player available ahead of where he is projected to be kept, even if this is at a pick above the projected value of the player. Simply saying that a player is a specific value may be a bit of over simplification.

Hi OddibeMcD,Long post, but it is a good one.

I think you're misinterpreting the tiers.

First of all, if I had constrained myself to picking 12 players at a time and defining a round of draft picks, it would be artificial and the list would have less value. What if your league uses 10, 14, or 16 teams? Moreover, what if I have 10 guys all at the same value (to one another) more or less, but it crossed the 12/13 line or another "Round of 12" division? Why would I artificially differentiate between the players when I shouldn't have to?

Defining tiers makes life better for all. That way you can look at your own leagues and make a logical decision of who is of comparable value and who should be grouped together.

As for your comments about the 2QB league, I made mention of that somewhere - I think the article or this thread - the list is still valid. The QB tiers would be of higher value (say a "B" QB is about equal to a "B-" RB in a start 1 QB league, but now is more like a "B+" RB when you start two) and you can adjust accordingly.

The lists and grades are in a grid form, but that doesn't mean that "B" QBs are equivalent to "B" WRs or RBs or TEs. That's a big mistake if you read it that way. Some leagues give 2 points for a TE catch - and Gates has more value. Some leagues lump TEs in with WRs, and then only a handful of TEs are even relevant. In either scenario, though, the tiers still work - you just have to shuffle them into one big value list based on your league setup. With no TE requirement, Gates might be about a WR15 talented player and fall into that level of value, and the next 4-5 TEs might make the list and that's it.

Now, as for your comments about deep info on QBs, we do rank those in our Dynasty rankings. I'm behind schedule this week but I should update mine soon, but for now here is a direct link to my last take on them:

QB Dynasty Rankings

Make sure you set the timeline to at least 35 days to get a good view of the rankings. I update mine about once a month and my year-end rankings will be coming soon.

As you can see from that list, we go as deep as 60 QBs for fantasy purposes - which is a ton (Matt Moore is a great sleeper, but I digress). That should help you in your 2 QB league.

Lastly - Pick Calculators. You need to read my signature about the Dynasty Draft Pick Calculator and the article I wrote on it. Read it over and shoot me a PM and we can discuss it, but I think some of your concerns could be addressed by that tool.

Thanks for taking the time to write the feedback.

 

[Jayrod]

I just looked it over and think it is an incredibly well done and thought out chart. Of course I have a few different opinions that I will throw out as food for thought on changes I would likely make:

QB

Kitna, B+ I consider Kitna to be in the B tier for several reasons. For one he will be even older and have taken another year of abuse in Martz's system. There is also some rumors that Martz may get the boot after this year due to the horrendous play calling at times and much of Kitna's fantasy value can be attributed to Martz.

RB

SJax, B+ I think the Rams were snakebit this year and the offense will return next year. With Pace back, Jackson will return to be the back we all thought he would be before this season. I think he is even a borderline tier A guy.

Gore, B+ There is no excuse for this season other than coaching and unless Nolan is gone, Gore will see another season like this one.

MJD, B+ As much as it pains me to say (as a MJD dynasty owner), I just don't see this offense changing next year. FT will still get the bulk of carries leaving MJD as an low end RB2 in most formats.

Chester, B He will become a full blown backup by next year. His only hope to play is that ADP gets hurt again.

WR

Boldin, B+ The Cards have no QB and don't throw enough for both Fitz and Boldin to be elite. I also don't think Warner can finish this season AND play a full year next year, so its Leinert time which doesn't bold well for any AZ WR.

Harrison, B This season was an abberation and the Manning to Harrison combo will be back in full force by next season. He still has one or two great seasons left in him.

Holt, B Same as Harrison above.

TE

Clark, B+ I think he will be hurt by a full WR squad. If Harrison, Wayne & Gonzalez are all healthy and playing next year, Clark becomes the 5th option in that offense.

Daniels, B Like your arguement for Witten last season, Daniels catches too many balls and gets too many yards to not get in the endzone more often next year, making him a TE1.

Again, think the list is great, these are just some guys I see a little differently.

 

[Intergalactic Kegger]

I know there has been plenty of people that are down on Phillip Rivers, but I think his ranking is a bit out of line here. His team is going through a transition with new coaching. I think its wrong to put guys like Marc Bulger, Vince Young, and Jason Campbell on a higher tier than this Rivers. He should be in the B group, not the B- group.

 

[eagles2007]

Wow, Jeff, it's like you read my mind. I was just looking at top 250 tonight thinking, 'I wish there was something with more of a dynasty/keeper view to it.'

Great work.

I'm just going to weigh in on one player: Anquan Boldin. As a Boldin owner, I can't tell you how disappointed I am in him this year. I think he's clearly fallen to No. 2 WR on that team and his injuries are really starting to concern me.

I had a chance to trade him or Santonio Holmes a couple of weeks ago and went with Holmes on a gut feeling at the time. Now, I wish I could take it back (it was for McGahee).

Anyhow, look forward to seeing this as a regular feature.

 

[Bri]

Gonzalez is better than that tier.

Shockey should drop. He's a vet now we should start just analyzing production and skip giving potential so much weight.

Deuce is too low as NO has clearly shown there's a spot for him.

FA Julius Jones is too low.

Watson ranking.....Kenny called and wants to know what he's gotta do to earn some respect here

I don't like so many RBs in a tier. It defeats the purpose of tiers when ya get around 10 in one.

 

[BigTex]

Thanks Jeff, great job. I'm not sure why some of you just don't paste this to Excel and form your own list if you don't like what Jeff's raking after all they are "Jeff's Ranking."

 

[Bri]

Thanks Jeff, great job. I'm not sure why some of you just don't paste this to Excel and form your own list if you don't like what Jeff's raking after all they are "Jeff's Ranking."

well then there would be no discussionplus Jeff can be fun to debate with so...

 

[harryhood]

Good read Jeff,

Is it possible to take this a little further and list possible projected values? A couple leagues we play in are auction leagues where you keep a certain number of players, however they cost $10 more the following year. As teams have a lot of grade A players, it is not smart for them to keep say, Willie Parker next year for $69 out of their $200.

Maybe if you could do something to show expected value next year, some of us in those auction leagues would be grateful!

If not, still a nice little chart you made up.

 

[Mister CIA]

I think you are much too generous to put Thomas Jones up so high. He's a bust this year; He'll be 30 next year with a decent amount wear on his tread; Leon Washington could get more carries next year; the Jets may draft their RB of the future next spring. No thanks.

While I haven't watched every carry for Jones this year, I am not sure I get the "bust" label. He has nearly 1,000 total yards and has over 800 yards rushing - making him a Top 25 RB for the season to date - and that is with just one TD. That might be why he gets the bust label - one score. However, he's doing all the work on a struggling team and he should be the feature back again next season.The analogy here is at TE for 2006 - Jason Witten. Witten was well below most fantasy players' radars because he had only 1 TD last season - but he still had good reception and yardage numbers. If he had gotten the typical 5-7 TDs for a TE1 no one would have flinched at a TE1 rating for this season. The same applies for 2008 - TJones will be the feature back, getting 250+ carries, 30 or so catches and certainly more TDs then he has this year. To further the point, what if TJ had 6 TDs rather than one right now? He'd be a Top 12 RB and there'd be no chance you could call him a bust.

I don't expect him to improve on his 3.6 yards per carry. Maybe he can score a few more TDs, but even then, his ceiling is Jamal Lewis; As is, I'd take ten of the backs you have ranked below him (Turner, Grant, CTaylor, Norwood, Benson, Lendale, Graham, Fargas, Julius and DeAngelo - plus I'm confident that a few others ranked below him will find themselves in a different and quite possibly improved situation next year). Also, while I have not put any effort into studying the next draft, my early thought is that the Jets are going to take a good, long look at McFadden. If they don't draft an impact RB, I'd expect Leon Washington to get a significant bump in his number of touches.The writing is on the wall. At best he makes decent bye-week material next season. Or I could be completely wrong (I know this because it has happened once before).Still, good read. This is the kind of material I like to get lost in.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I just looked it over and think it is an incredibly well done and thought out chart. Of course I have a few different opinions that I will throw out as food for thought on changes I would likely make:...Again, think the list is great, these are just some guys I see a little differently.

Rather than nitpick and debate each one, let me just say for the feedback. There's obviously room for debate on each one, but I just wanted to put some thoughts down in some organized manner that could help the rest of the FBGs out there. Glad you found it useful and thought-provoking.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I know there has been plenty of people that are down on Phillip Rivers, but I think his ranking is a bit out of line here. His team is going through a transition with new coaching. I think its wrong to put guys like Marc Bulger, Vince Young, and Jason Campbell on a higher tier than this Rivers. He should be in the B group, not the B- group.

You must not know my thoughts on Philip Rivers. I'm sure you can search around and see that I'm not that fond of his abilities (and I REALLY trashed him for this season). I won't let all of 2007 bias me towards 2008, but I don't see a huge uptick for him.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I think you are much too generous to put Thomas Jones up so high. He's a bust this year; He'll be 30 next year with a decent amount wear on his tread; Leon Washington could get more carries next year; the Jets may draft their RB of the future next spring. No thanks.

While I haven't watched every carry for Jones this year, I am not sure I get the "bust" label. He has nearly 1,000 total yards and has over 800 yards rushing - making him a Top 25 RB for the season to date - and that is with just one TD. That might be why he gets the bust label - one score. However, he's doing all the work on a struggling team and he should be the feature back again next season.The analogy here is at TE for 2006 - Jason Witten. Witten was well below most fantasy players' radars because he had only 1 TD last season - but he still had good reception and yardage numbers. If he had gotten the typical 5-7 TDs for a TE1 no one would have flinched at a TE1 rating for this season. The same applies for 2008 - TJones will be the feature back, getting 250+ carries, 30 or so catches and certainly more TDs then he has this year. To further the point, what if TJ had 6 TDs rather than one right now? He'd be a Top 12 RB and there'd be no chance you could call him a bust.

I don't expect him to improve on his 3.6 yards per carry. Maybe he can score a few more TDs, but even then, his ceiling is Jamal Lewis; As is, I'd take ten of the backs you have ranked below him (Turner, Grant, CTaylor, Norwood, Benson, Lendale, Graham, Fargas, Julius and DeAngelo - plus I'm confident that a few others ranked below him will find themselves in a different and quite possibly improved situation next year). Also, while I have not put any effort into studying the next draft, my early thought is that the Jets are going to take a good, long look at McFadden. If they don't draft an impact RB, I'd expect Leon Washington to get a significant bump in his number of touches.The writing is on the wall. At best he makes decent bye-week material next season. Or I could be completely wrong (I know this because it has happened once before).

There is another factor you have to consider - Jones signed a 4-year, $20M contract just this past March. I don't recall how the bonuses broke down for cap purposes, but the deal did include $12M in guarantees and is 2007 base salary was just $900K. That's a big pill to swallow if you cut him or even demote him / turn it into a RBBC.

Still, good read. This is the kind of material I like to get lost in.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Gonzalez is better than that tier.Shockey should drop. He's a vet now we should start just analyzing production and skip giving potential so much weight.

This is possible. It was more about the QB issues for both teams, but I tend to like Shockey.

Deuce is too low as NO has clearly shown there's a spot for him.

Agreed, but I'm concerned on his health and ability to be at 100% for all of 2008.

FA Julius Jones is too low.

I told you to not ask me about JJ He's a FA and who knows where he lands. He may be a RBBC back at best - there are only so many RB jobs out there.

Watson ranking.....Kenny called and wants to know what he's gotta do to earn some respect here

Classic "guy in front of him" issue.

I don't like so many RBs in a tier. It defeats the purpose of tiers when ya get around 10 in one.

Possibly - but the breaks seemed to flow well for me. I couldn't find reasons to separate several of them - and near the top of the lists it does come down to personal preferences.Also keep in mind that near the top, most players will be kept anyway (unless you keep 3 or fewer, then you have to be concerned some). The point of the FBG Futures is to get you to think about 2008 and also look at who is above/below one another.

 

[IndyHavoc]

Thanks Jeff. Both for the list and the reply. We'll just have to see how the off-season goes for Holt. If the knee does continue to be a concern / problem, then you might be right in viewing him as a WR2. I just think we're seeing, this year, his absolute floor for the next 3 seasons. So, from a keeper/dynasty view-point, he's still got to be in that 2nd tier (older, consistent top10 WR).

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Good read Jeff,Is it possible to take this a little further and list possible projected values? A couple leagues we play in are auction leagues where you keep a certain number of players, however they cost $10 more the following year. As teams have a lot of grade A players, it is not smart for them to keep say, Willie Parker next year for $69 out of their $200.Maybe if you could do something to show expected value next year, some of us in those auction leagues would be grateful! If not, still a nice little chart you made up.

Is it possible? Yes.Is it probable? Unlikely.Sorry, but I could spend a lifetime tailoring lists to suit individual and/or league needs.My suggestion to you in your case would be to see what $ value got slapped on the players within each tier and then see if the bump in cost pushes someone's price too high for that given tier.As an example, say all your "B" grade RBs are in the $20-35 range. If it costs you $35 to retain him, I'd do it because that's the price for that level of talent for 2008. If he costs $45, I'd move on to someone else.

 

[Eric]

Here is a link to a Top 120 Keeper List for 2008. It is sort of a hybrid of ADP for next year and a Dynasty perspective, but it should be an interesting read (or look) for many of you:

FBG Futures

It is subscriber content, but feel free to take a look and we'll talk about some of it.

This is going to be incredibly valuable to me in my league. Thanks for the great work!

 

[Yitbos69]

Thanks Jeff....Great list.....there are a few guys that could move up or down(and I am sure they will by draft day)....but they all seem to be in the correct range. As always thanks for the info!