I'm expecting to see Lacy in at least 90% of the lineups I face this week. He's a huge bargain at $6800. You can make a valid argument about Wallace hurting the offense but it's a better than average offense with him running it. Also, Wallace now has a week of snaps with the offense. And at $6800, it's hard to find guys who are pretty much a lock for 20 touches and goal line carries.Sure, but from the reports I read on Roto about the Game against the Bears last week, the Bears kept two safeties deep and Lacy had tons of room to run. I'd imagine that with Wallace or Flynn or VY or whoever, that won't be the case.
He'll probably be fine... but I don't know that he's a MUST start anymore.
While I agree Mike James might fall into the "cute" category, Woodhead, Rice, and Bernard do not.I'm expecting to see Lacy in at least 90% of the lineups I face this week. He's a huge bargain at $6800. You can make a valid argument about Wallace hurting the offense but it's a better than average offense with him running it. Also, Wallace now has a week of snaps with the offense. And at $6800, it's hard to find guys who are pretty much a lock for 20 touches and goal line carries.Sure, but from the reports I read on Roto about the Game against the Bears last week, the Bears kept two safeties deep and Lacy had tons of room to run. I'd imagine that with Wallace or Flynn or VY or whoever, that won't be the case.
He'll probably be fine... but I don't know that he's a MUST start anymore.
IMO, don't get cute. Get Lacy in your lineup.
Thank you kind sir!have you checked out rotogrinders ? Also http://thefakebasketball.com has daily infoHowever, I'm dabbling in NBA and all I can say is WOW, it's tough. Last night I entered 12 contests and cashed in ONE. So far I think I've done close to 30 contests and maybe cashed in 5 or so.
Wish there was a Basketballguys.com to help a brother out!![]()
Showing Miami as $5,900 not $5,400.Guys I like if things fall right:
- McCown ($5,800) will be anchoring nearly all my lineups if Cutler scratches. I may not know enough to play him on Thursday though.
- If Sproles scratches, Pierre Thomas becomes a must-play ($5,600)
There are some sneaky defenses that could provide huge games:
Miami was already lots of sacks (35 already in 9 games). They will be playing the Bucs ($5,400) without two more lineman (Martin and Incognito). Another defense that I think could be HUGE this week is the Giants ($5,300). They play the Raiders with a less than 100% Pryor (left last game with a knee injury) behind center.
pssssst TBShowing Miami as $5,900 not $5,400.Guys I like if things fall right:
- McCown ($5,800) will be anchoring nearly all my lineups if Cutler scratches. I may not know enough to play him on Thursday though.
- If Sproles scratches, Pierre Thomas becomes a must-play ($5,600)
There are some sneaky defenses that could provide huge games:
Miami was already lots of sacks (35 already in 9 games). They will be playing the Bucs ($5,400) without two more lineman (Martin and Incognito). Another defense that I think could be HUGE this week is the Giants ($5,300). They play the Raiders with a less than 100% Pryor (left last game with a knee injury) behind center.
I am saying take the Bucs who play Miami.Showing Miami as $5,900 not $5,400.Guys I like if things fall right:
- McCown ($5,800) will be anchoring nearly all my lineups if Cutler scratches. I may not know enough to play him on Thursday though.
- If Sproles scratches, Pierre Thomas becomes a must-play ($5,600)
There are some sneaky defenses that could provide huge games:
Miami was already lots of sacks (35 already in 9 games). They will be playing the Bucs ($5,400) without two more lineman (Martin and Incognito). Another defense that I think could be HUGE this week is the Giants ($5,300). They play the Raiders with a less than 100% Pryor (left last game with a knee injury) behind center.
There is not a good way to do this, but here is my approach towards diversification:Hey Dodds, this may be the kind of thing not many people are interested in, but I'd be curious to hear (either here or on your blog) about your process for actually creating/submitting/updating/etc. multiple different lineups each week on Fanduel. I've been rolling out 10-20 different lineups each week, and it's a little cumbersome to manage it all (though as the weeks have passed I've definitely learned some lessons and streamlined the process). Do you have a method or any tips that help you manage multiple lineups spread amongst hundreds of entries each week?
Anybody?Do you guys have more success with running your favorite 2-3 exact lineups across many contests?
Or finding your say top 5 RBs, WRs, top 2-3 QBs, TEs, Ks, DSTs and mixing and matching through many contests?
I prefer the second option. I don't like having the same exact lineup across the board. If you hit you hit big, but if you don't you may lose them all.Anybody?Do you guys have more success with running your favorite 2-3 exact lineups across many contests?
Or finding your say top 5 RBs, WRs, top 2-3 QBs, TEs, Ks, DSTs and mixing and matching through many contests?
Plus the Giants get the Raiders in the dreaded 1 PM east coast start, after having two weeks to prepare. And they realize they are not out of their own division race.Guys I like if things fall right:
- McCown ($5,800) will be anchoring nearly all my lineups if Cutler scratches. I may not know enough to play him on Thursday though.
- If Sproles scratches, Pierre Thomas becomes a must-play ($5,600)
There are some sneaky defenses that could provide huge games:
Miami was already yielding lots of sacks (35 already in 9 games). They will be playing the Bucs ($5,400) without two more lineman (Martin and Incognito). Another defense that I think could be HUGE this week is the Giants ($5,300). They play the Raiders with a less than 100% Pryor (left last game with a knee injury) behind center.
As a Gmen fan I'd love to take them in lineups, but at only $800 more I think I'm going to do TEN in almost every lineup vs. JAX. Eagles vs. Seneca Wallace and the Packers is a pretty good price point too I think at $5000.Plus the Giants get the Raiders in the dreaded 1 PM east coast start, after having two weeks to prepare. And they realize they are not out of their own division race.Guys I like if things fall right:
- McCown ($5,800) will be anchoring nearly all my lineups if Cutler scratches. I may not know enough to play him on Thursday though.
- If Sproles scratches, Pierre Thomas becomes a must-play ($5,600)
There are some sneaky defenses that could provide huge games:
Miami was already yielding lots of sacks (35 already in 9 games). They will be playing the Bucs ($5,400) without two more lineman (Martin and Incognito). Another defense that I think could be HUGE this week is the Giants ($5,300). They play the Raiders with a less than 100% Pryor (left last game with a knee injury) behind center.
I have been blending from pools of players, but I think I will change over to running 5 lineups per contest type/time, just to maintain some ease of entry. Starting to need more volume and it is getting to tough to try and make each one unique, as I am starting to use lesser players for the sake of variety.donkshow said:Anybody?donkshow said:Do you guys have more success with running your favorite 2-3 exact lineups across many contests?
Or finding your say top 5 RBs, WRs, top 2-3 QBs, TEs, Ks, DSTs and mixing and matching through many contests?
Yeah, I've been thinking about something like this (just with projections from me, Dodds, Bloom, and perhaps Wisdom of the Crowd*), but it wouldn't make sense to do it as a series of html tables.**Crazy idea: Create a sister site: Football Geeks, that imports many different projections and allows you to blend the sources by % and position. If I remember correctly, I believe the FBG iPad app allows that between the native rankings as a whole. There are times where I think Dodds is spot on for QB, and maybe Bloom for RB and Tremblay for WR, etc. Finally, throw in a projections/results score for each source and position as well for the priormweek and season as a whole. Just thinking 'out loud'.
this. is. AWESOME.I made a minor change to the "User Screen Short Cut" bookmarklet and it is now available from the link in my sig. All the previous functionality works the same when you hover over a name on the "list of players" screen, but I've added that same functionality to the the Lobby page for H2H contests. After the new version of the bookmarklet is installed, you can simply hover over the user name when you are searching for H2H opponents to see their win totals, rather than having to click the user name and having the entire "user" screen load. Again, it's a minor change but I think it's a little better user experience than constantly toggling between the lobby and the individual user pages.
Let me know if anyone finds this useful.
this. is. AWESOME.I made a minor change to the "User Screen Short Cut" bookmarklet and it is now available from the link in my sig. All the previous functionality works the same when you hover over a name on the "list of players" screen, but I've added that same functionality to the the Lobby page for H2H contests. After the new version of the bookmarklet is installed, you can simply hover over the user name when you are searching for H2H opponents to see their win totals, rather than having to click the user name and having the entire "user" screen load. Again, it's a minor change but I think it's a little better user experience than constantly toggling between the lobby and the individual user pages.
Let me know if anyone finds this useful.
A quick and dirty method could be to rank the average predicted point totals in decreasing order, then match the ranked players in decreasing order. Possible issues with outlier point totals, but 95% should be good____
*Wisdom of the Crowd gives rankings rather than projections, but I think I have a way to convert them into reasonable projections that are consistent with the rankings.
This is awesome. It's useful in a few ways - to provide several options for each position just for diversification (I'm looking at you, PK) - but also in case I just don't like someone who the primary projections spit out. For example, this week my first thought when I saw Darren Sproles was "huh?" and that it must have been just a glitch. I'm sure his price went down after getting knocked out early in the game, and the computer hasn't taken into account the fact that Sproles might miss the next game. So, it was sort of just a write-off for me. Having multiple secondary options really helps in a situation like that.I've added a secret new feature to the On the Daily column. It's secret for now because I'm still working on the various intros and links and stuff, so there's no link to it from anywhere on the main site, but I'll post it here:
Secondary Lineups.
It's a list of lineups that are "second best." They're the best lineups that can be made if we exclude all players from the primary lineups on the main page. So taking the Bloom StarStreet lineup as an example, the primary lineup is the best lineup we can make using Bloom's projections with the StarStreet scoring system, salary cap, and roster requirements. The secondary Bloom StarStreet lineup eliminates from consideration all players in the original Bloom StarStreet lineup, and forms the best lineup that can be made with the leftover players.
I'm not sure if the secondary lineups would be +EV on their own. They're at a disadvantage (roughly 5%-7% just by very quickly eyeballing it) because most of the really good values are in the primary lineups and are therefore off limits.
But they may have some value either as a type of diversification or hedge, or as a source of additional players for you to do some mixing and matching with on your own.
I'm not sure if there's a better way to present them than giving them their own separate page. I thought about doing little pop-up windows such that the Dodds DraftKings secondary lineup would pop up to the right of the Dodds DraftKings primary lineup (either with a mouse-over or with a click), but ultimately that seemed kind of clumsy. I'm open to ideas . . .
Pulled P Thomas from my lineups when I heard this earlier - was hoping for a scratch by Sproles.Of course as soon as I write that:
Darren Sproles (concussion) is practicing in full Wednesday.
It's a surefire sign that the concussion Sproles sustained on the first drive of last week's loss to the Jets was not of the severe variety. He said he's fine and has gone through the NFL's protocols. Barring a setback, the PPR maven will suit up in a tasty matchup with the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.
I'm still of the mind that if you want to play someone on a Thursday Night, stud RBs are the way to go.I'm rolling out a lineup in several tourneys with AP, AMorris, and JReed. Even though Thursday night games typically suck, both of these defenses kinda suck and I think it'll be a pretty high scoring game. I didn't take either kicker but they'd be decent plays too.
They've pretty much got the timing down to a science. It will run if it doesn't fill but they almost always do.Bobcat10 said:Do these large contests ever not fill? The $1 or $2 Squib's, Dive's, etc sure seem to have alot of open spots. I never really look at these tournys.
I think there's a mistake? If you look at this profile he only scored 3 points. it says he rushed 7/70, but I don't see that anywhere else.Anyone else kicking around the idea of starting S. Wallace? He scored 13 points last week when he wasn't expected to play. I imagine a full week of practice getting all the first team reps in addition to a game plan that plays to his strengths will only help. Plus, you cant beat the price. I'm probably rolling out this lineup in a few contests:
I just looked at the points and didn't drill down to his profile page at Fan Duel... looks like you are right. So just forget the part about him scoring 13 points last week ... everything else I mentioned makes me consider him.I think there's a mistake? If you look at this profile he only scored 3 points. it says he rushed 7/70, but I don't see that anywhere else.Anyone else kicking around the idea of starting S. Wallace? He scored 13 points last week when he wasn't expected to play. I imagine a full week of practice getting all the first team reps in addition to a game plan that plays to his strengths will only help. Plus, you cant beat the price. I'm probably rolling out this lineup in a few contests:
I would stay away. The Packers will lean more on Lacy and Starks and look for Wallace to be more of a game manager than a play maker, imo. Besides, the Eagle defense is playing much better now and the total stats for the year might mislead you.I just looked at the points and didn't drill down to his profile page at Fan Duel... looks like you are right. So just forget the part about him scoring 13 points last week ... everything else I mentioned makes me consider him.I think there's a mistake? If you look at this profile he only scored 3 points. it says he rushed 7/70, but I don't see that anywhere else.Anyone else kicking around the idea of starting S. Wallace? He scored 13 points last week when he wasn't expected to play. I imagine a full week of practice getting all the first team reps in addition to a game plan that plays to his strengths will only help. Plus, you cant beat the price. I'm probably rolling out this lineup in a few contests:
Very similar to what I try to do. However, I tend to fall into chasing the big tournies and losing my grinding gains.Check out: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion. Basically a formula for what makes sense.My game plan for the week is to put 60-75% of my wagers on (mostly) Thursday fades. I will probably have a few lineups with AP, Reed (but last week's stinker?), Garcon (loved him last week, but his price shot up), and maybe RG3 (don't love him especially on the short week) -- for the most part I'm staying away. I tend to do better on the Thursday games than the Sunday games over the last few weeks. I'm also going for bigger returns here - lots of Doubles, Triples, a few Quintuples.
For Sunday, because I've not fared as well, I'll be putting only the remaining 25-40% of my wagers on Sunday games, but sticking to the 50/50 deals. My only hesitation about this is that I prefer big 100+ entry games. The $5 50/50 suits me, but at $10 there are only 20 people. So i'll probably enter all the $5 games and then start on the $10s.
Idea here is to go heavy where I do well, and try to hit the returns. Then, to scale it back where I've had more trouble, and shoot for lower payouts.
Any thoughts on meta-strategy this week?
Going with Eli (cringe) Rivers and Brees this week, with a few others thrown in. Thought about Keenum, but suspect Peterson will be glued to Andre Johnson.The talk of Cutler starting has thrown my Thurs plays into a spiral. I had a few of my rosters set up for McCown's salary with little wiggle room so no I am looking for a cheaper QB so I don't ruffle up my line-ups too much.
What is everyone's thoughts on Keenum? He is only at 6100 so it would not shake up the roster too much, but AZ has a pretty good defense. (shoot, I am thinking too much now)
Personally I don't like that matchup, on the road, with Patrick Petterson covering AJ.The talk of Cutler starting has thrown my Thurs plays into a spiral. I had a few of my rosters set up for McCown's salary with little wiggle room so no I am looking for a cheaper QB so I don't ruffle up my line-ups too much.
What is everyone's thoughts on Keenum? He is only at 6100 so it would not shake up the roster too much, but AZ has a pretty good defense. (shoot, I am thinking too much now)
agreed, fading the Houston passing game this weekPersonally I don't like that matchup, on the road, with Patrick Petterson covering AJ.The talk of Cutler starting has thrown my Thurs plays into a spiral. I had a few of my rosters set up for McCown's salary with little wiggle room so no I am looking for a cheaper QB so I don't ruffle up my line-ups too much.
What is everyone's thoughts on Keenum? He is only at 6100 so it would not shake up the roster too much, but AZ has a pretty good defense. (shoot, I am thinking too much now)
I've got a mix at QB that includes Peyton, Brees, Rivers, Eli, and Locker.
Ended up shaking the rosters up and went Manning, Rivers and RG3agreed, fading the Houston passing game this weekPersonally I don't like that matchup, on the road, with Patrick Petterson covering AJ.The talk of Cutler starting has thrown my Thurs plays into a spiral. I had a few of my rosters set up for McCown's salary with little wiggle room so no I am looking for a cheaper QB so I don't ruffle up my line-ups too much.
What is everyone's thoughts on Keenum? He is only at 6100 so it would not shake up the roster too much, but AZ has a pretty good defense. (shoot, I am thinking too much now)
I've got a mix at QB that includes Peyton, Brees, Rivers, Eli, and Locker.