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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (22 Viewers)

MP - Sorry bro....you caught me before my coffee.

As much as I act like you agitate me sometimes, you're part of the gang here and you contribute some good stuff.

I threatened to fight RaiderNation a year ago and asked him if he wanted to have a beer last weekend. I'm temperamental.

 
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I'm falling hook line and sinker for this Washington State game. They are +35 against Stanford

last five WA St. games:

[*]Oct 16 - Lost 24-7 vs Arizona

[*]Oct 9 - Lost 43-23 vs Oregon

[*]Oct 2 - Lost 42-28 at UCLA

[*]Sep 25 - Lost 50-16 vs Southern Cal

[*]Sep 18 - Lost 35-21 at Southern Methodist

They put up 67 points in 3 games where they weren't exactly playing tomato cans. They lost by twenty to the current #1 team in the nation and even would have covered this week's Stanford-spread against USC (50-16 =34 points obviously).

Stanford on the other hand has averaged 35 ppg in four of their last five contests (excluding a 68 point blowout vs. Wake Forest)

That seems like an amazing disparity to be 5 td underdogs. They have fought hard and this line seems WHACK.

To all the vets out there; am I missing something?

ETA: I'm editing my stupid lines from last page for posterity. Jax has moved to +12 @ KC due to their quarterback quandary.

 
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the rover said:
tribecalledjeff said:
safariplanet said:
ETA: I'm editing my stupid lines from last page for posterity. Jax has moved to +12 @ KC due to their quarterback quandary.
Click to expand...
Where did you see this? I'd make this game 5 with Garrard, and there's no way in hell Garrard is worth 7 points.
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It's not just Garrard, it's that Edwards is horrifyingly bad
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I understand who is next in line (eta that Bouman is probably starting, not Edwards). He's not a full touchdown worse than Garrard.
 
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tribecalledjeff said:
the rover said:
tribecalledjeff said:
safariplanet said:
ETA: I'm editing my stupid lines from last page for posterity. Jax has moved to +12 @ KC due to their quarterback quandary.
Click to expand...
Where did you see this? I'd make this game 5 with Garrard, and there's no way in hell Garrard is worth 7 points.
Click to expand...
It's not just Garrard, it's that Edwards is horrifyingly bad
Click to expand...
I understand who is next in line. He's not a full touchdown worse than Garrard.
Click to expand...
Arrowhead stadium has a reputation to uphold. The Chiefs' last home game was 31-10 against the 49ers (obviously not much of a challenge at the time). It's my understanding that Garrard is out, Edwards is questionable with a thumb injury and they just signed Todd Bouman. With that mess I really can't believe they will establish any form of offense. KC's passing game just started clicking. My line stands.Of course, the betmakers' lines have not come out yet for this game, and obviously starting QB is a big factor. But, can anyone tell me why SD -3 was scratched vs. Pats? Are they recalculating odds after Branch's receiving performance? It's been cut out on Bodog and I was curious as to why that was..
 
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safariplanet said:
tribecalledjeff said:
the rover said:
tribecalledjeff said:
safariplanet said:
ETA: I'm editing my stupid lines from last page for posterity. Jax has moved to +12 @ KC due to their quarterback quandary.
Click to expand...
Where did you see this? I'd make this game 5 with Garrard, and there's no way in hell Garrard is worth 7 points.
Click to expand...
It's not just Garrard, it's that Edwards is horrifyingly bad
Click to expand...
I understand who is next in line. He's not a full touchdown worse than Garrard.
Click to expand...
Arrowhead stadium has a reputation to uphold. The Chiefs' last home game was 31-10 against the 49ers (obviously not much of a challenge at the time). It's my understanding that Garrard is out, Edwards is questionable with a thumb injury and they just signed Todd Bouman. With that mess I really can't believe they will establish any form of offense. KC's passing game just started clicking. My line stands.Of course, the betmakers' lines have not come out yet for this game, and obviously starting QB is a big factor. But, can anyone tell me why SD -3 was scratched vs. Pats? Are they recalculating odds after Branch's receiving performance? It's been cut out on Bodog and I was curious as to why that was..
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Oh ok, I misunderstood. I thought that you saw +12 posted at a book. Carry on.
 
You know I always wondered why people hedged bets, back in July I bet on the Phillies to win the NL at +550 the series price for the Giants was +225, now I know why people hedge bets.

 
Detroit Fan 365 said:
You know I always wondered why people hedged bets, back in July I bet on the Phillies to win the NL at +550 the series price for the Giants was +225, now I know why people hedge bets.
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Not hedging was the correct decision. You had a -260 bet at +550. HUGE value. Yes, if it loses it's going to be frustrating, but long term if you hold on to those, you'll come out way ahead.
 
What's everyone's play for Bodog's $20 free bet against Zenyatta? I'll probably take Rip Van Winkle.. just because it's 20/1 and the name combination makes it sound worthy..

 
safariplanet said:
I'm falling hook line and sinker for this Washington State game. They are +35 against Stanford

last five WA St. games:

[*]Oct 16 - Lost 24-7 vs Arizona

[*]Oct 9 - Lost 43-23 vs Oregon

[*]Oct 2 - Lost 42-28 at UCLA

[*]Sep 25 - Lost 50-16 vs Southern Cal

[*]Sep 18 - Lost 35-21 at Southern Methodist

They put up 67 points in 3 games where they weren't exactly playing tomato cans. They lost by twenty to the current #1 team in the nation and even would have covered this week's Stanford-spread against USC (50-16 =34 points obviously).

Stanford on the other hand has averaged 35 ppg in four of their last five contests (excluding a 68 point blowout vs. Wake Forest)

That seems like an amazing disparity to be 5 td underdogs. They have fought hard and this line seems WHACK.

To all the vets out there; am I missing something?

ETA: I'm editing my stupid lines from last page for posterity. Jax has moved to +12 @ KC due to their quarterback quandary.
Click to expand...
I think it's a god bet. Washington State was so miserable for so long, but it looks like the Wolf era is FINALLY starting to gain some traction. Their previous staff left that program in ruins. Recruiting their sucks. It's been a dismal ride for the Coug. But they are doing something they haven't done in over 3 years - compete. Their QB will flat sling it around and has some improved weapons to pass to. That helps in big lines like this one...he won't stop throwing. They'll also hit the crap out of opponents to make up for the fact that they aren't very good. They just play nasty. They injured several important Ducks, including their QB and all-everything Bahrner. They'll go after Stanford's playmakers.I think you found a good lean and might play it with you.

 
General Malaise said:
safariplanet said:
I'm falling hook line and sinker for this Washington State game. They are +35 against Stanford

last five WA St. games:

[*]Oct 16 - Lost 24-7 vs Arizona

[*]Oct 9 - Lost 43-23 vs Oregon

[*]Oct 2 - Lost 42-28 at UCLA

[*]Sep 25 - Lost 50-16 vs Southern Cal

[*]Sep 18 - Lost 35-21 at Southern Methodist

They put up 67 points in 3 games where they weren't exactly playing tomato cans. They lost by twenty to the current #1 team in the nation and even would have covered this week's Stanford-spread against USC (50-16 =34 points obviously).

Stanford on the other hand has averaged 35 ppg in four of their last five contests (excluding a 68 point blowout vs. Wake Forest)

That seems like an amazing disparity to be 5 td underdogs. They have fought hard and this line seems WHACK.

To all the vets out there; am I missing something?

ETA: I'm editing my stupid lines from last page for posterity. Jax has moved to +12 @ KC due to their quarterback quandary.
Click to expand...
I think it's a god bet. Washington State was so miserable for so long, but it looks like the Wolf era is FINALLY starting to gain some traction. Their previous staff left that program in ruins. Recruiting their sucks. It's been a dismal ride for the Coug. But they are doing something they haven't done in over 3 years - compete. Their QB will flat sling it around and has some improved weapons to pass to. That helps in big lines like this one...he won't stop throwing. They'll also hit the crap out of opponents to make up for the fact that they aren't very good. They just play nasty. They injured several important Ducks, including their QB and all-everything Bahrner. They'll go after Stanford's playmakers.I think you found a good lean and might play it with you.
Click to expand...
:yawn: I hope I'm right about this one. I'm in desperate need of thread cred.
 
Oh boy, looking for a little advice here. I am in quite deep with the Phils winning the NL, and that is looking like it may not pan out. I knew i should have hedged earlier, but I caught Phils fever and didn't. So, what is my best bet for not getting absolutely crushed by the books? My guess is that the series price for the Giants will be pretty ugly, probably more then -200. I could put some on the game tomorrow, but if Halladay can pull it out taking the series price after tomorrow's game will obviously be a better hedge. All of my Phillies bets to win the NL are + odds, but what should i bet to even this out the best for me (e.g. the game tomorrow, the series bet, any SF WS bets, etc?)

One of these days these playoff bets, especially conference finals, will work for me. :yawn:

 
modogg said:
Oh boy, looking for a little advice here. I am in quite deep with the Phils winning the NL, and that is looking like it may not pan out. I knew i should have hedged earlier, but I caught Phils fever and didn't. So, what is my best bet for not getting absolutely crushed by the books? My guess is that the series price for the Giants will be pretty ugly, probably more then -200. I could put some on the game tomorrow, but if Halladay can pull it out taking the series price after tomorrow's game will obviously be a better hedge. All of my Phillies bets to win the NL are + odds, but what should i bet to even this out the best for me (e.g. the game tomorrow, the series bet, any SF WS bets, etc?)One of these days these playoff bets, especially conference finals, will work for me. :bag:
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Me and you both man, I know that at 3-1 Giants will be a lot more than a -200, Texas today was -700.
 
Detroit Fan 365 said:
modogg said:
Oh boy, looking for a little advice here. I am in quite deep with the Phils winning the NL, and that is looking like it may not pan out. I knew i should have hedged earlier, but I caught Phils fever and didn't. So, what is my best bet for not getting absolutely crushed by the books? My guess is that the series price for the Giants will be pretty ugly, probably more then -200. I could put some on the game tomorrow, but if Halladay can pull it out taking the series price after tomorrow's game will obviously be a better hedge. All of my Phillies bets to win the NL are + odds, but what should i bet to even this out the best for me (e.g. the game tomorrow, the series bet, any SF WS bets, etc?)One of these days these playoff bets, especially conference finals, will work for me. :bag:
Click to expand...
Me and you both man, I know that at 3-1 Giants will be a lot more than a -200, Texas today was -700.
Click to expand...
Ugh, well that eliminates one option. I saw your post earlier, and I am kicking myself for not taking the Giants in the beginning of the series too. With the Phils bats coming to life tonight, and halladay knowing what this game means and coming off a loss, I think the Phils can win it. If the Phils survive tomorrow, taking the series price after that one can be pretty good with both games coming back to Philly
 
modogg said:
Detroit Fan 365 said:
modogg said:
Oh boy, looking for a little advice here. I am in quite deep with the Phils winning the NL, and that is looking like it may not pan out. I knew i should have hedged earlier, but I caught Phils fever and didn't. So, what is my best bet for not getting absolutely crushed by the books? My guess is that the series price for the Giants will be pretty ugly, probably more then -200. I could put some on the game tomorrow, but if Halladay can pull it out taking the series price after tomorrow's game will obviously be a better hedge. All of my Phillies bets to win the NL are + odds, but what should i bet to even this out the best for me (e.g. the game tomorrow, the series bet, any SF WS bets, etc?)One of these days these playoff bets, especially conference finals, will work for me. :goodposting:
Click to expand...
Me and you both man, I know that at 3-1 Giants will be a lot more than a -200, Texas today was -700.
Click to expand...
Ugh, well that eliminates one option. I saw your post earlier, and I am kicking myself for not taking the Giants in the beginning of the series too. With the Phils bats coming to life tonight, and halladay knowing what this game means and coming off a loss, I think the Phils can win it. If the Phils survive tomorrow, taking the series price after that one can be pretty good with both games coming back to Philly
Click to expand...
If you're that desperate just take SF today at +110. I don't know what odds you have philly at or how much so i can't recommend how much to hedge. I think you're digging a deeper hole betting on SF but to each his own, betting the SF moneyline is the "smartest" move.Actually I think betting SF at that number is a good bet straight up, TIMMAY at home with a + number
 
Phils are a good play to win the series. I really think Halladay completely shuts the Giants down tonight, and the Phillies get to Lincecum or the bullpen. Then going back to Philly I will take the veteran pitchers over SF's, especially in that environment.

 
Open enrollment for the next 24 hours (cfb comes out tomorrow) for month 2 of sevice. If you're interested, 24 hours remaining until we close it until month 3. :goodposting:

 
John Bender said:
Just punched Peyton Manning to win MVP at +500 on sportsbook9/0 TD/INT ratio right now - a sure bet to make the playoffs. After 3 weeks, he's the best QB in the league and the site still has Aaron Rodgers at +200 who has been nowhere near as effective as Peyton. There's also the fact that the Colts have a terrible defense, weak OLine, and weak running game. Peyton epitomizes the MVP for a Super Bowl contending team.
Click to expand...
Starting to get a bit concerned over all these injuries to other Colts players - Addai, Collie, Clark.Eh....
 
John Bender said:
John Bender said:
Just punched Peyton Manning to win MVP at +500 on sportsbook9/0 TD/INT ratio right now - a sure bet to make the playoffs. After 3 weeks, he's the best QB in the league and the site still has Aaron Rodgers at +200 who has been nowhere near as effective as Peyton. There's also the fact that the Colts have a terrible defense, weak OLine, and weak running game. Peyton epitomizes the MVP for a Super Bowl contending team.
Click to expand...
Starting to get a bit concerned over all these injuries to other Colts players - Addai, Collie, Clark.Eh....
Click to expand...
I actually threw a unit each on Brady and Brees both at +1200 last night with all the injury news. I was a little surprised that Rodgers is still favored at +300.
 
John Bender said:
John Bender said:
Just punched Peyton Manning to win MVP at +500 on sportsbook9/0 TD/INT ratio right now - a sure bet to make the playoffs. After 3 weeks, he's the best QB in the league and the site still has Aaron Rodgers at +200 who has been nowhere near as effective as Peyton. There's also the fact that the Colts have a terrible defense, weak OLine, and weak running game. Peyton epitomizes the MVP for a Super Bowl contending team.
Click to expand...
Starting to get a bit concerned over all these injuries to other Colts players - Addai, Collie, Clark.Eh....
Click to expand...
Nah, the injuries will make him even more valuable when he continues to put up strong numbers and win while throwing to Garcon and Blair White and handing off to Brown and Hart. Manning for MVP!
 
Frostillicus said:
BRONG said:
lumpy19 said:
NBA futuresOKC o50.5 -130 5dimes
Click to expand...
That's funny, I was about to play this last night -- my only NBA future -- but my guy had it at 51.5 so I balked.
Click to expand...
Doesn't 29.5 seem awfully high for the Cavs?
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31.5 is available, i have no idea what's going to happen with that team....i actually think at 29.5 i might make a small play on the over. i like hickson, jamison is still there, mo williams....lbj worth 30wins?
 
BRONG said:
lumpy19 said:
NBA futuresOKC o50.5 -130 5dimes
Click to expand...
That's funny, I was about to play this last night -- my only NBA future -- but my guy had it at 51.5 so I balked.
Click to expand...
FWIW i played this at 51.5 also, i couldn't find 50.5 anywhere but 5dimes, max bet it there a few times till the juice was too much and put the rest on 51.5. Durant is improved, westbrook is much improved, and this team has the experience of playing together and winning last year. Even a short stint in the playoffs.
 
TheGooRoo said:
John Bender said:
John Bender said:
Just punched Peyton Manning to win MVP at +500 on sportsbook9/0 TD/INT ratio right now - a sure bet to make the playoffs. After 3 weeks, he's the best QB in the league and the site still has Aaron Rodgers at +200 who has been nowhere near as effective as Peyton. There's also the fact that the Colts have a terrible defense, weak OLine, and weak running game. Peyton epitomizes the MVP for a Super Bowl contending team.
Click to expand...
Starting to get a bit concerned over all these injuries to other Colts players - Addai, Collie, Clark.Eh....
Click to expand...
Nah, the injuries will make him even more valuable when he continues to put up strong numbers and win while throwing to Garcon and Blair White and handing off to Brown and Hart. Manning for MVP!
Click to expand...
I heard they have this Wayne guy (from?!?!) who is supposedly the real deal!
 
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Clorox said:
TheGooRoo said:
John Bender said:
John Bender said:
Just punched Peyton Manning to win MVP at +500 on sportsbook9/0 TD/INT ratio right now - a sure bet to make the playoffs. After 3 weeks, he's the best QB in the league and the site still has Aaron Rodgers at +200 who has been nowhere near as effective as Peyton. There's also the fact that the Colts have a terrible defense, weak OLine, and weak running game. Peyton epitomizes the MVP for a Super Bowl contending team.
Click to expand...
Starting to get a bit concerned over all these injuries to other Colts players - Addai, Collie, Clark.Eh....
Click to expand...
Nah, the injuries will make him even more valuable when he continues to put up strong numbers and win while throwing to Garcon and Blair White and handing off to Brown and Hart. Manning for MVP!
Click to expand...
I heard they have this Wayne guy (from?!?!) who is supposedly the real deal!
Click to expand...
From John Ehret High School? Wayne is the constant, he doesn't count :excited: . IMO the view is that he has a solid surrounding cast, now that 1/2 of his surrounding cast is injured, if/when he continues to win and pile up numbers, it will be a story. Manning for MVP!
 
lumpy19 said:
BRONG said:
lumpy19 said:
NBA futuresOKC o50.5 -130 5dimes
Click to expand...
That's funny, I was about to play this last night -- my only NBA future -- but my guy had it at 51.5 so I balked.
Click to expand...
FWIW i played this at 51.5 also, i couldn't find 50.5 anywhere but 5dimes, max bet it there a few times till the juice was too much and put the rest on 51.5. Durant is improved, westbrook is much improved, and this team has the experience of playing together and winning last year. Even a short stint in the playoffs.
Click to expand...
Yeah, they showed me a lot last year, they really did just miss that next level, and barring injury, I don't see how they don't get there. I remember thinking wow, this is who the Lakers are going to have to worry about. I don't see them taking many games off either, like the Lakers and such . . . and OKC should have an even bigger home court advantage with all the hope and excitement. I can see a college-feel to that crowd emerging; Oklahoma City can't wait for this. Durant could not be more impressive, obviously, and another year should have them improve the most you would think.But because all that, I thought they'd be overpriced for sure. However, if you took 51.5, that is good enough for me, I'm in.
 
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Played Phillies all around tonight. -120 . . . -1 1/2 +150 . . . and to win the series at +320.

And these WS Winner odds just showed up. I haven't looked around, and this book's stuff like this is always overpriced, but of these, I sure do like the Rangers (probly should be around +150). They really stand out to me in this group.

NYY+450

PHI+400

SF....EV

TEX+120

 
BRONG said:
lumpy19 said:
BRONG said:
lumpy19 said:
NBA futuresOKC o50.5 -130 5dimes
Click to expand...
That's funny, I was about to play this last night -- my only NBA future -- but my guy had it at 51.5 so I balked.
Click to expand...
FWIW i played this at 51.5 also, i couldn't find 50.5 anywhere but 5dimes, max bet it there a few times till the juice was too much and put the rest on 51.5. Durant is improved, westbrook is much improved, and this team has the experience of playing together and winning last year. Even a short stint in the playoffs.
Click to expand...
Yeah, they showed me a lot last year, they really did just miss that next level, and barring injury, I don't see how they don't get there. I remember thinking wow, this is who the Lakers are going to have to worry about. I don't see them taking many games off either, like the Lakers and such . . . and OKC should have an even bigger home court advantage with all the hope and excitement. I can see a college-feel to that crowd emerging; Oklahoma City can't wait for this. Durant could not be more impressive, obviously, and another year should have them improve the most you would think.But because all that, I thought they'd be overpriced for sure. But if you took 51.5, that is good enough for me, I'm in.
Click to expand...
i thought they were a little overhyped last year and the win total was 37.5, thought it'd take them a little longer to put everything together. Westbrook and durant playing together in the fiba tournament all off-season is only a plus for this squad. I'm excited to watch them play. I still don't think they have what it takes to bring down the lakers but they're getting there.Durant should cruise to a scoring title this year.
 
This UCLA/Oregon line has steamed 3 points toward Oregon in 24 hours and I think even more so since it opened.

I don't even like this play but I'm fading the public and hitting UCLA at +27

 
I'll be playing UCLA tonight as well...

I played Navy +7 pretty big this week, and looking just now, it has gone to 6 1/2 (if anybody's interested). They can win that game outright.

 
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