I'm in Volusia County...district 6. It's Mike WaltzWhich one is that?
Oh right, that was DeSantis' old seat. Not super Republican, but considering Dems didn't come close to winning an open race in a very good environment, hard to imagine that one flipping anytime soon. I actually knew someone who ran against a first-term GOP incumbent in 2018 and lost by a similar margin. Goes back to what I was saying earlier about Florida basically being a Deep South state if you take away the three South Florida counties.I'm in Volusia County...district 6. It's Mike Waltz
Well, that explains why it's up again in 2020....I went trying to figure out the dates on the gov site and found it's up again this year. FWIW, he seems rather "purple" in nature in terms of local issues, but it's really tough to overlook the behavior of the House in this impeachment fiasco.Oh right, that was DeSantis' old seat. Not super Republican, but considering Dems didn't come close to winning an open race in a very good environment, hard to imagine that one flipping anytime soon. I actually knew someone who ran against a first-term GOP incumbent in 2018 and lost by a similar margin. Goes back to what I was saying earlier about Florida basically being a Deep South state if you take away the three South Florida counties.I'm in Volusia County...district 6. It's Mike Waltz
Not following. All Congressional seats are up every two years. Or do you mean there's some kind of special election?Well, that explains why it's up again in 2020....I went trying to figure out the dates on the gov site and found it's up again this year. FWIW, he seems rather "purple" in nature in terms of local issues, but it's really tough to overlook the behavior of the House in this impeachment fiasco.
No...I'm an idiot...ignore me.Not following. All Congressional seats are up every two years. Or do you mean there's some kind of special election?
Certain Dems could win the state. 1,000 people are moving to Florida each day, and many are conservative retirees from high tax states, and military retirees. This is balanced by the factors you mention above. It's all about getting out the vote in Democratic strongholds.Question from an outsider: Florida voted for Trump by an extremely narrow margin in '16. How much of a boost will the ultimate Dem candidate get from Amendment 4 passing (while taking into consideration the ensuing court battles to overturn it) and, to a much more limited extent, the permanent relocation of perhaps as many as 50,000 Puerto Ricans? Can a Democrat win the state, or just certain Dems, or none of them?
The short answer is who knows? Democrats have displayed a rare ability to constantly come close in Florida and fall just short.Question from an outsider: Florida voted for Trump by an extremely narrow margin in '16. How much of a boost will the ultimate Dem candidate get from Amendment 4 passing (while taking into consideration the ensuing court battles to overturn it) and, to a much more limited extent, the permanent relocation of perhaps as many as 50,000 Puerto Ricans? Can a Democrat win the state, or just certain Dems, or none of them?
I don't see Democrats ever winning again until the boomers die off and or the economy crashes. I'm not banking on the ex-cons or Puerto Ricans to make a huge difference.Certain Dems could win the state. 1,000 people are moving to Florida each day, and many are conservative retirees from high tax states, and military retirees. This is balanced by the factors you mention above. It's all about getting out the vote in Democratic strongholds.
I saw a great quote after the 2018 midterms. I'm paraphrasing, but the basic idea was, "What Democrats don't realize about Florida is that the retirees are legion. There is an endless supply of them, and they just keep moving here and voting Republican."I don't see Democrats ever winning again until the boomers die off and or the economy crashes. I'm not banking on the ex-cons or Puerto Ricans to make a huge difference.
I thought this was an interesting comment so I did some google-fu. About 800,000 people die in Florida every four years, 88% of them 55 and older. So that's a pile of probably GOP voters but I don't know how to factor in the inevitable reinforcements by the eastern snowbirds.I don't see Democrats ever winning again until the boomers die off and or the economy crashes. I'm not banking on the ex-cons or Puerto Ricans to make a huge difference.
In 2016, Trump won by 1.2%. Gary Johnson had 2.2% of the vote and Stein 0.7%. A democrat can win in Florida.I don't see Democrats ever winning again until the boomers die off and or the economy crashes. I'm not banking on the ex-cons or Puerto Ricans to make a huge difference.
I think the margins could be smaller than that if they ever clean up Broward County & some of the crooked election offices around the state. I wouldn't be surprised if they were keeping dead Republicans on the ballot to help out Trump.In 2016, Trump won by 1.2%. Gary Johnson had 2.2% of the vote and Stein 0.7%. A democrat can win in Florida.
Broward elections board perfectly embodies the expression, "Never attribute to conspiracy that which can be explained by incompetency."I think the margins could be smaller than that if they ever clean up Broward County & some of the crooked election offices around the state. I wouldn't be surprised if they were keeping dead Republicans on the ballot to help out Trump.
Is this a Florida thing only? Never heard of a position like Commissioner of anything beign the 3rd highest office. I would have assumed Governor, Lt Governor - then something like Attorney General or Sec of State?Nikki Fried, commissioner of agricuIrure, which is the 3rd highest statewide office.
You may be right, but I hope like hell the state party doesn't approach the next election with that mindset, because that's what led to 20+ years of being shut out of power. Florida is Lucy with the football, and I'm sick of being Charlie Brown.In 2016, Trump won by 1.2%. Gary Johnson had 2.2% of the vote and Stein 0.7%. A democrat can win in Florida.
If Steyer and Bloomberg pay the civil fines of many of those trying to regain the right to vote under Amendment 4, and support grass roots outreach, then a win in 2020 is possible. Especially if there is a moderate candidate without high unfavorable ratings.
Lt. Governor is a backwater. They're usually used as a way to help win a few votes (each of the last two GOP governors chose Latinos from South Florida) and then never heard from again. In addition to Agriculture Commissioner, the other two statewide elected offices are AG and CFO. Together with the governor, they make up the official cabinet. That's typically where the parties try to build their benches, although I'm not aware of anyone who's successfully gone from cabinet official to one of the Big Three in recent years. Alex Sink, former CFO, lost to Scott in the 2010 governor's race, and Adam Putnam, former Ag Commissioner, lost to DeSantis in the 2018 GOP primary. Former AG Pam Bondi, currently serving as Trump's impeachment lawyer, seems to have a bright future in the state party, but not sure what paths are available to her. Maybe Trump names her USAG in his second term and then she comes back to Florida to run for something afterward?Is this a Florida thing only? Never heard of a position like Commissioner of anything beign the 3rd highest office. I would have assumed Governor, Lt Governor - then something like Attorney General or Sec of State?
Yeah, this guy's got to go. If that means me registering as a Repub and helping primary him with someone non-Trumpish then I'm all about it.Osaurus said:Marco Rubio is like the Paul Ryan of Florida (if not worse):
“Just because actions meet a standard of impeachment does not mean it is in the best interest of the country to remove a President from office,”
Makes sense if you put your interests above those of your constituents imo.
Happy to say I voted for Snitker in 2010 and Stanton in 2016.Yeah, this guy's got to go. If that means me registering as a Repub and helping primary him with someone non-Trumpish then I'm all about it.
Aren’t those the names of the two aliens in The Simpsons?Happy to say I voted for Snitker in 2010 and Stanton in 2016.
Kang and KodosAren’t those the names of the two aliens in The Simpsons?
I hadn't seen this yet. I know that voter registration for the primaries is over. The deadline to change affiliation for the primary was yesterday. These are the statewide dates for the events:I saw a twitter reference today to a federal appeals court upholding the injunction on the legislation requiring former felons to pay all their fines before having their voting rights restored. Which is encouraging, I guess. But I also saw a reference that these potential new voters have missed the registration deadlines. Can any of you knowledgeable locals help me out with this?
Yes, I saw the same report. I don't have any specific answers to your questions, but I do know there are a lot of people who had already registered immediately after the ballot initiative passed whose status was thrown into question by the new legislation, so this would potentially help them. You are right that the deadline was yesterday, though I do believe that's only for the primary and they would have plenty of time to register for November's election.I saw a twitter reference today to a federal appeals court upholding the injunction on the legislation requiring former felons to pay all their fines before having their voting rights restored. Which is encouraging, I guess. But I also saw a reference that these potential new voters have missed the registration deadlines. Can any of you knowledgeable locals help me out with this?
Well of course it was. At least one of the intents.Yes, I saw the same report. I don't have any specific answers to your questions, but I do know there are a lot of people who had already registered immediately after the ballot initiative passed whose status was thrown into question by the new legislation, so this would potentially help them. You are right that the deadline was yesterday, though I do believe that's only for the primary and they would have plenty of time to register for November's election.
One thing that sucks is that all this confusion could hold down registration and voting regardless of the ultimate decision. And you don't have to be a professional cynic to wonder if that wasn't the intention all along.
>> DeSantis’ spokeswoman, Helen Aguirre Ferré, wrote on Twitter that he disagreed with the decision and would appeal it to the full appellate court.roadkill1292 said:I saw a twitter reference today to a federal appeals court upholding the injunction on the legislation requiring former felons to pay all their fines before having their voting rights restored. Which is encouraging, I guess. But I also saw a reference that these potential new voters have missed the registration deadlines. Can any of you knowledgeable locals help me out with this?
This article came up in another thread, and @The Commish and I apparently both had the same idea of posting it here.Bernie Sanders may have emerged with the most votes from the first two contests in the 2020 Democratic primary, but Miami’s House Democrats echoed many lawmakers in Washington this week when they said it’s far too soon to consider the prospect of a democratic socialist as the party’s nominee.
Sanders’ rise has set off alarm bells in the House of Representatives, where Democrats won a majority in 2018 in part by defeating Republicans in districts President Donald Trump won in 2016.
Even asking the question about whether they would support Sanders elicited eye rolls and stone-faced stares from three of Miami’s four congressional Democrats.
“He’s not going to be the nominee,” Rep. Donna Shalala said when asked if she would campaign for Sanders should he win the nomination. “That’s a hypothetical question and since I don’t think he’s going to be the nominee, I don’t have to answer the question.”
“How many delegates has he won?” Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell said. “I’m seriously considering endorsing another candidate, that’s my answer to you.”
“We’re a long way from who is going to be our nominee and so that speculation is really not helpful at all,” Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz said.
Their cool reception to Sanders’ candidacy underscores the challenges the self-described democratic socialist faces in Florida, where establishment-friendly candidates like former Vice President Joe Biden and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg enjoy more support among elected officials.
With Bernie as the nominee, the seat Shalala flipped in 2018 is also in danger.‘He’s not going to be the nominee.’ Miami’s House Dems aren’t considering Bernie
This article came up in another thread, and @The Commish and I apparently both had the same idea of posting it here.
I'm never thought much of Sanders, but I'm slowly reconciling myself to the fact that he's very likely to be the Dem nominee. But this article encapsulates so much of what worries me about his candidacy. Keeping the discussion specifically to Florida, I think he could be a real threat to Dems like Mucarsel-Powell, a freshman in a swing district that has gone back and forth over the past decade. In a neutral environment, I would expect her to be a heavy favorite even against popular two-term mayor Carlos Gimenez, in part because she can exploit fissures between him and Trump (just as she did between Trump and Carlos Curbelo in 2018). But Bernie winning the nomination is pretty much Gimenez's dream scenario, because he gets to turn the tables and drive a wedge between her and Bernie with an anti-socialism message that is likely to resonate in the district.
If Bernie wins the nom......Florida is lost to the Democrats. Trump takes this state in a landslide with Bernie as the Nom. Only the tri-country area is heavily democrat but also heavily anti-socialism.You guys know this state better than me...trying to get up to speed, but is the theory that if Bernie is the nominee that voter turnout will be low? I ask because the 2018 elections went down much differently and had basically Bernie vs Trump for governor without the benefit of being able to focus on the PR relocations.
That's an interesting point. I think one difference is that Dems were unified behind Gillum in a way they wouldn't be behind Bernie.You guys know this state better than me...trying to get up to speed, but is the theory that if Bernie is the nominee that voter turnout will be low? I ask because the 2018 elections went down much differently and had basically Bernie vs Trump for governor without the benefit of being able to focus on the PR relocations.
So in this theory what do the self identifying Dems do? They just stay home? That's what I don't understand....when it's down to Trump and the Dem and they have to pick one (I've found no one around me who values voting for a third party. They are all in on 'lesser of two evils") do we really think they will vote for Trump?That's an interesting point. I think one difference is that Dems were unified behind Gillum in a way they wouldn't be behind Bernie.
But honestly, my worry isn't that Bernie would depress Dem turnout. It's that he would super-charge GOP turnout. Obviously, when you lose a squeaker the way Gillum did, you can point to any factor as being decisive, but I really do think a major reason he lost was that he massively underperformed in Miami-Dade relative to previous Dem candidates, in part because of the efforts DeSantis made among Cubans and Venezuelans. I think those voters would be even more motivated against a self-described socialist. Not to mention that Trump has spent four years building out a sophisticated data operation to target those very people.
Florida is a low tax retiree state. The retirees in the Villages, Jacksonville and orher places are often escaping high taxes. AOC's mom fled to low tax Florida. Even the condo dwellers aren't as liberal as they used to be.If Bernie wins the nom......Florida is lost to the Democrats. Trump takes this state in a landslide with Bernie as the Nom. Only the tri-country area is heavily democrat but also heavily anti-socialism.
My guess is that they still mostly vote Dem, though maybe lower enthusiasm means some stay home and some vote for Trump. But the way a Dem wins in FL is by racking up huge margins in all three S. Florida counties. Anything that prevents that from happening -- whether lower Dem turnout or higher GOP turnout -- probably spells doom.So in this theory what do the self identifying Dems do? They just stay home? That's what I don't understand....when it's down to Trump and the Dem and they have to pick one (I've found no one around me who values voting for a third party. They are all in on 'lesser of two evils") do we really think they will vote for Trump?
I've heard Graham make that case and I'm not convinced. She was the same bland, vanilla centrist Dems have run here for decades without winning (and there was a real-time experiment of a similar centrist running for Senate; he lost by the same amount). I was planning on voting for her until about a week out, when I saw an ad for her that was so full of poll-tested gobbledy####, I just couldn't bring myself to be that cynical.Florida is a low tax retiree state. The retirees in the Villages, Jacksonville and orher places are often escaping high taxes. AOC's mom fled to low tax Florida. Even the condo dwellers aren't as liberal as they used to be.
Gillum brought out the black vote but was also branded as a socialist by the Cuban talk shows because he wanted to increase corporate taxes to pay for higher teacher salaries. He almost won against a smart but non-charismatic DiSantis. I think Gwen Graham would've beaten DiSantis. She recently tweeted that the 2020 presidential could be a repeat of the 2018 governor's race.
Yes I think the Dems my age or just a little younger vote for Trump. I think some of the youth vote still votes for Sanders but their turnout will be even lower than usual. If Sanders is the nominee then for the first time in years the race in Fl will not be close and Trump wins hands down imo.So in this theory what do the self identifying Dems do? They just stay home? That's what I don't understand....when it's down to Trump and the Dem and they have to pick one (I've found no one around me who values voting for a third party. They are all in on 'lesser of two evils") do we really think they will vote for Trump?
You're voting for him anyway right rusty? And you're just one of the demographics at play here, what about the others? Need ALL of them to vote Trump for this to reach "blowout" status.Yes I think the Dems my age or just a little younger vote for Trump. I think some of the youth vote still votes for Sanders but their turnout will be even lower than usual. If Sanders is the nominee then for the first time in years the race in Fl will not be close and Trump wins hands down imo.
"Donald Trump will not be the nominee"‘He’s not going to be the nominee.’ Miami’s House Dems aren’t considering Bernie
This article came up in another thread, and @The Commish and I apparently both had the same idea of posting it here.
I'm never thought much of Sanders, but I'm slowly reconciling myself to the fact that he's very likely to be the Dem nominee. But this article encapsulates so much of what worries me about his candidacy. Keeping the discussion specifically to Florida, I think he could be a real threat to Dems like Mucarsel-Powell, a freshman in a swing district that has gone back and forth over the past decade. In a neutral environment, I would expect her to be a heavy favorite even against popular two-term mayor Carlos Gimenez, in part because she can exploit fissures between him and Trump (just as she did between Trump and Carlos Curbelo in 2018). But Bernie winning the nomination is pretty much Gimenez's dream scenario, because he gets to turn the tables and drive a wedge between her and Bernie with an anti-socialism message that is likely to resonate in the district.
Yea I will be voting for him unless Tulsi runs as a third party candidate. Changed my party affilate from npa to Dem so I could vote for her in the primary if she lasts that long. I just don't see Sanders as a viable candidate here for it to be close.You're voting for him anyway right rusty? And you're just one of the demographics at play here, what about the others? Need ALL of them to vote Trump for this to reach "blowout" status.
You guys might be right on the race not being close....I just don't see it based on what happened in 2018. I don't think I've seen a blowout in Florida ever (though I haven't paid close attention until the last few years).
This is why Trump isn't hiding the fact that he wants Bernie to win. He knows it will be a walk in the park. You win FL you win the racezftcg said:In the least surprising news of the decade, Bernie's comments on "60 MInutes" where he seemed to praise Castro are not going over particularly well here in Miami. It is true that in context they're not as bad as the headline made them sound, but that's not really an excuse. He has to know that people are already suspicious of him, and even saying unobjectionable things that could be subject to misinterpretation is the kind of thing that can kill his campaign, especially with the Trump Death Star prepared to spend billions blasting him as a commie.
If I'm Donna Shalala, Debbie Mucarsel Powell or any other vulnerable FL Democrat, I'm praying nightly that Biden stages a comeback.
I don't think that's true. The 2000 election cemented Florida's importance in everyone's brain, but it hasn't really been the tipping point state in any election since then.You win FL you win the race
This is all very true. One other caveat I'd add to the states you mentioned is Virginia. It went much later into the night last time than people predicted. I don't know VA well enough statewide now to say what the odds are it could turn red with it being Bernie/Trump. There are only two polls and they show much different things. I do know there's been a lot of turmoil there since the state is now D held top to bottom and with the Northam/Fairfax stuff along with the gun control debate. Perhaps the population shift to the northern VA suburbs leave it blue, but Trump plays extremely well in western VA and if he can get some greater support in the suburbs it might be all he needs.I don't think that's true. The 2000 election cemented Florida's importance in everyone's brain, but it hasn't really been the tipping point state in any election since then.
If Democrats win back PA/MI/WI they win. If they lose WI but add AZ they win. Obviously, Florida would help, but in a scenario where they win FL the likelihood is they're doing well up and down the ballot and taking the Electoral College decisively.
That said, I certainly don't want to see Dems give up on Florida from the jump, particularly because, as I said, that would be disastrous for vulnerable House members and the FL Democratic Party as a whole.
I mean, with two wildcards like Trump and Bernie in the race a lot more scenarios become plausible. But I still imagine that in a scenario where Trump flips Virginia, he's having a very good night.This is all very true. One other caveat in the states you mentioned is VA. It went much later into the night last time than people predicted. I don't know VA well enough statewide now to say what the odds are it could turn red with it being Bernie/Trump. There are only two polls and they show much different things. I do know there's been a lot of turmoil there since the state is now D held top to bottom and with the Northam/Fairfax stuff along with the gun control debate. Perhaps the population shift to the northern VA suburbs leave it blue, but Trump plays extremely well in western VA and if he can get some greater support in the suburbs it might be all he needs.
Agreed. I don't think MN is "likely", but the fact that it's even mentioned is territory that at once was unthinkable. From the Trump side, I don't see CO and ME as likely. Now ME-2 I do think is likely 1 EV for Trump. NH was super close and NV was way closer than I thought it would be last time.I mean, with two wildcards like Trump and Bernie in the race a lot more scenarios become plausible. But I still imagine that in a scenario where Trump flips Virginia, he's having a very good night.
For the record, Hillary won VA by 5 points in 2016. There were five states (CO, ME, NV, MN, NH) that she won with closer margins. My guess is that if Trump is able to expand his map beyond 2016, MN is the first one to fall.
I do feel like Bernie, among all the Dem contenders, would probably have a good chance at winning back ME-2 (and would probably not lose MN, although I'm not particularly worried about that, again because in a scenario where Dems lose MN, they're definitely not flipping PA/MI/WI back).Agreed. I don't think MN is "likely", but the fact that it's even mentioned is territory that at once was unthinkable. From the Trump side, I don't see CO and ME as likely. Now ME-2 I do think is likely 1 EV for Trump. NH was super close and NV was way closer than I thought it would be last time.