My 30-player
roster:
8.6% - QB - Kirk Cousins - MIN/7 - $8
13.6% - QB - Philip Rivers - IND/7 - $8
9.2% - QB - Derek Carr - LV/6 - $7
10.2% - RB - Derrick Henry - TEN/7 - $30
24.6% - RB - Josh Jacobs - LV/6 - $26
46.7% - RB - Antonio Gibson - WAS/8 - $9
8.4% - RB - Benny Snell - PIT/8 - $4
6.9% - RB - Frank Gore - NYJ/11 - $3
11.3% - WR - Michael Thomas - NO/6 - $33
5.2% - WR - Julian Edelman - NE/6 - $15
7.5% - WR - Deebo Samuel - SF/11 - $12
10.9% - WR - Parris Campbell - IND/7 - $7
3.0% - WR - Corey Davis - TEN/7 - $6
11.4% - WR - Laviska Shenault - JAX/7 - $5
3.4% - WR - TreQuan Smith - NO/6 - $3
9.5% - WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - GB/5 - $3
26.1% - WR - Bryan Edwards - LV/6 - $3
5.3% - TE - Zach Ertz - PHI/9 - $20
10.4% - TE - Darren Waller - LV/6 - $17
4.2% - TE - Irv Smith - MIN/7 - $8
1.8% - TE - Jordan Akins - HOU/8 - $3
21.8% - PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/8 - $3
6.3% - PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/8 - $2
23.5% - PK - Stephen Gostkowski - TEN/7 - $2
9.9% - PK - Sam Sloman - LAR/9 - $2
18.4% - TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/7 - $3
4.5% - TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/10 - $2
3.4% - TD - Jacksonville Jaguars - JAX/7 - $2
6.1% - TD - Detroit Lions - DET/5 - $2
7.3% - TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/8 - $2
average ownership: 11.3%
average ownership (excluding PK & Def): 11.4%
The biggest change I made from previous years was putting more effort into stacking, with 2 Raiders receivers, 1 Viking, and 1 Colt. It should help both for the season as a whole (e.g., if the Raiders passing offense clicks this year) and for individual games in the finals.
By position
QB: 3 for $23
The good: pretty cheap, I got 3 of them, they're solid guys, I stacked each with 1-2 receivers. The bad: limited upside, 2 wk7 byes. I thought about going pricier on one, but I just wasn't that thrilled with anyone in the $10-15 range and I didn't want to pay up for the top guys.
RB: 5 for $72
2 studs (Henry who has a great playoff schedule, Jacobs). 1 obvious value play (Gibson). 1 "handcuff" to a guy with high injury risk (Snell). 1 cheap depth guy (Gore). I considered getting a 3rd stud or another cheap guy but preferred spending that money elsewhere.
WR: 9 for $87
Thomas could be the highest scoring non-QB in the whole contest. Edelman is a huge value compared to his typical production. Deebo looks like one of the standard "great value if you set aside the first few weeks" guys for this contest. Then a bunch more cheap guys to take advantage of best ball, mainly guys who have moved up the ranks since pricing was set.
TE: 4 for $48
One (near?) stud TE in Ertz, two mid-range guys who were borderline choices but get a bit of a boost from the stack (Waller, Irv Smith), and one of the best value plays of the contest in Akins (behind only Edwards & Gibson, IMO, but somehow he's the least-owned player on my roster at 1.8%).
PK: 4 for $9
Def: 5 for $11
These are prime "throw numbers at it" positions, where you can keep adding $2 players who are likely to give you at least a couple starts. My two $3 options are Boswell (solid kicker, I was out of $2 starters) and TEN (good looking D especially for the championship weeks).
By bye
wk5: 2 for $5
wk6: 7 for $104
wk7: 10 for $79
wk8: 6 for $23
wk9: 2 for $22
wk10: 1 for $2
wk11: 2 for $15
wk13: 0 for $0
Could be in trouble in week 6 (Raiders + M Thomas + Edelman) and 7 (Cousins + other Vikings, Rivers + other Colts, Henry). Hopefully I'll still have enough firepower that early in the season. Week 13 byes essentially make a player undraftable.
By price
Studs ($24+): 3 for $89. 2 RB, 1 WR.
Solid Starters ($11-$23): 4 for $64. 2 WR, 2 TE.
Undervalued midrange guys ($6-$10): 7 for $47. 3 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE.
Cheap value plays ($2-$5): 16 for $44. 2 RB, 4 WR, 1 TE, 4 PK, 5 Def.
This year the barbell shape is less extreme than usual. I usually like paying up for a few of the very best, but this year it seemed worth taking the discount to get guys in the next tier (Henry, Jacobs, Ertz, Waller instead of Barkley, Elliott, Kelce, Kittle). I wonder if the pricing was a little different? Another factor was McCaffrey's ineligibility. 30 players with lots of cheap guys is typical for me (though with last year's pricing I only got 26).
Who missed the cut
The last change I made: cutting $10 Noah Fant + $4 Malcolm Brown and adding $8 Irv Smith + $3 Frank Gore + $3 Tre'Quan Smith. Irv Smith gives me a stack & I expect he'll be much lower ownership than Fant, I'm skeptical of Brown's upside which makes Gore not much worse for RB depth, and Smith has some potential for blow-up games (like he's done before) or a surprisingly good season (as a 3rd yr WR getting some camp hype).
The last change I seriously considered but rejected: cutting $8 Philip Rivers + $7 Parris Campbell and adding $15 Drew Brees. Tempting as a way to get some QB upside, plus Campbell isn't that great a deal and I already have two NO WRs. But Brees is on the road for the 3-week championship, and has a wk6 bye, so I'll bet on Campbell making up the Brees-Rivers gap.
Some other guys who I was eyeing: QB Russell Wilson, QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Aaron Jones, RB Chris Thompson, WR Jerry Jeudy, WR Adam Humphries, WR Cole Beasley, TE Mark Andrews, TE Chris Herndon.