Foster/D.Williams, Dillon/Maroney or Addai/Rhodes (1 Viewer)

[Deuce'sWild]

I'm going to try to land one of these tandems late in the draft. Doing mocks, almost every time I can get one of these tandems in the 5th and 6th rd as my RB3 and RB4. This way, I can see how it pans out and have a solid RB producer down the stretch.

NOTE: These are the only tandems that I have been able to get late. Benson/Jones, Bell/Dayne, Bush/McCallister, Taylor/Moore, and other tandems always have one guy going too early.

So, if you could land one of these tandems, which would it be and why?

 

[stlrams]

I'm going to try to land one of these tandems late in the draft. Doing mocks, almost every time I can get one of these tandems in the 5th and 6th rd as my RB3 and RB4. This way, I can see how it pans out and have a solid RB producer down the stretch.

NOTE: These are the only tandems that I have been able to get late. Benson/Jones, Bell/Dayne, Bush/McCallister, Taylor/Moore, and other tandems always have one guy going too early.

So, if you could land one of these tandems, which would it be and why?

In the Colt system, the RBs are guaranteed to have opportuities. Plus Dungy commits to one RB vs. using the RBBC approach. The Pats are conserative when using rookies so I suspect Dillon will see majority of PT unless injured. Foster is injury proned,

 

[IndyHavoc]

Great poll question, Deuce. I picked Foster/D.Will, but I'm actually suprised that Foster is still there consistently in the 5th? I think Carolina is the most capable and dedicated to the run of these 3 situations. I love Addai in Indy, but I think the transition from Rhodes to Addai will leave both getting closer to 8-10ppg thru the middle of the season. Dillon/Maroney I think will also suffer from the same thing, and I'm really starting to give a bit more credit to Dillon starting pretty strong and holding the rook off. I don't think D.Will is going to be taking more than 20% of the pie, until (as we all know it will happen) Foster goes down. Until that time, Foster is their 3-down back.

If you could guarantee landing both parts of a combo, I think you'll have the most success (simply because the change over - imo - will be clean) with Foster/D.Will.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

I'm going to try to land one of these tandems late in the draft.  Doing mocks, almost every time I can get one of these tandems in the 5th and 6th rd as my RB3 and RB4.  This way, I can see how it pans out and have a solid RB producer down the stretch.

NOTE:  These are the only tandems that I have been able to get late.  Benson/Jones, Bell/Dayne, Bush/McCallister, Taylor/Moore, and other tandems always have one guy going too early.

So, if you could land one of these tandems, which would it be and why?

In the Colt system, the RBs are guaranteed to have opportuities. Plus Dungy commits to one RB vs. using the RBBC approach. The Pats are conserative when using rookies so I suspect Dillon will see majority of PT unless injured. Foster is injury proned,

I fail to see how this hurts Dillon/Maroney. If Dillon gets the majority of carries, he'll produce good numbers, if he gets hurt you have the backup in Maroney. Is it not good that Dillon will see the majority of PT, rather than RBBC?

 

[B. Nugget]

I'm going to try to land one of these tandems late in the draft.  Doing mocks, almost every time I can get one of these tandems in the 5th and 6th rd as my RB3 and RB4.  This way, I can see how it pans out and have a solid RB producer down the stretch.

NOTE:  These are the only tandems that I have been able to get late.  Benson/Jones, Bell/Dayne, Bush/McCallister, Taylor/Moore, and other tandems always have one guy going too early.

So, if you could land one of these tandems, which would it be and why?

In the Colt system, the RBs are guaranteed to have opportuities. Plus Dungy commits to one RB vs. using the RBBC approach. The Pats are conserative when using rookies so I suspect Dillon will see majority of PT unless injured. Foster is injury proned,

I think the Pats situation is ideal for grabbing two guys this year. Like you said, they won't lean on a rookie unless Dillon is unproductive or gets hurt, so you are almost assured a full-time RB and then when/if he gets hurt, LM will step in and likely be the guy. I don't think the other two situations are bad because the Colts and Panthers both run and will score points with whoever they plug in, but I think there is much more likely that they turn into RBBC than the Pats.

Just my $.02

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I'm going to try to land one of these tandems late in the draft.  Doing mocks, almost every time I can get one of these tandems in the 5th and 6th rd as my RB3 and RB4.  This way, I can see how it pans out and have a solid RB producer down the stretch.

NOTE:  These are the only tandems that I have been able to get late.  Benson/Jones, Bell/Dayne, Bush/McCallister, Taylor/Moore, and other tandems always have one guy going too early.

So, if you could land one of these tandems, which would it be and why?

Awesome thread. This is definitely something most sharks are looking at right now. I am excited about Addai opps so I like him and have no problem handcuffing him to Rhodes and playing whoever the Colts start. I have one fear of Rhodes being the TD vulture but I feel Addai will get the carries between the 10's and 20's till they get close to the goal line. Foster/Williams could be a great combo if Foster gets hurt again...not wishing for it but I am eager to see if DeAngelo Williams has the goods or not.

Dillon/Maroney is interesting but I think Dillon will start.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

I'm going to try to land one of these tandems late in the draft.  Doing mocks, almost every time I can get one of these tandems in the 5th and 6th rd as my RB3 and RB4.  This way, I can see how it pans out and have a solid RB producer down the stretch.

NOTE:  These are the only tandems that I have been able to get late.  Benson/Jones, Bell/Dayne, Bush/McCallister, Taylor/Moore, and other tandems always have one guy going too early.

So, if you could land one of these tandems, which would it be and why?

In the Colt system, the RBs are guaranteed to have opportuities. Plus Dungy commits to one RB vs. using the RBBC approach. The Pats are conserative when using rookies so I suspect Dillon will see majority of PT unless injured. Foster is injury proned,

I think the Pats situation is ideal for grabbing two guys this year. Like you said, they won't lean on a rookie unless Dillon is unproductive or gets hurt, so you are almost assured a full-time RB and then when/if he gets hurt, LM will step in and likely be the guy. I don't think the other two situations are bad because the Colts and Panthers both run and will score points with whoever they plug in, but I think there is much more likely that they turn into RBBC than the Pats.

Just my $.02

Agreed. WHich is why I voted Dillon/Maroney.Curious how this turns out though.

 

[Real Man of Genius]

I'm going to try to land one of these tandems late in the draft.  Doing mocks, almost every time I can get one of these tandems in the 5th and 6th rd as my RB3 and RB4.  This way, I can see how it pans out and have a solid RB producer down the stretch.

NOTE:  These are the only tandems that I have been able to get late.  Benson/Jones, Bell/Dayne, Bush/McCallister, Taylor/Moore, and other tandems always have one guy going too early.

So, if you could land one of these tandems, which would it be and why?

In the Colt system, the RBs are guaranteed to have opportuities. Plus Dungy commits to one RB vs. using the RBBC approach. The Pats are conserative when using rookies so I suspect Dillon will see majority of PT unless injured. Foster is injury proned,

I think the Pats situation is ideal for grabbing two guys this year. Like you said, they won't lean on a rookie unless Dillon is unproductive or gets hurt, so you are almost assured a full-time RB and then when/if he gets hurt, LM will step in and likely be the guy. I don't think the other two situations are bad because the Colts and Panthers both run and will score points with whoever they plug in, but I think there is much more likely that they turn into RBBC than the Pats.

Just my $.02

I agree. Dillon is the most talented of the incumbents, and Maroney is the most talented of the rookies, IMO.

 

[IndyHavoc]

I fail to see how this hurts Dillon/Maroney. If Dillon gets the majority of carries, he'll produce good numbers, if he gets hurt you have the backup in Maroney. Is it not good that Dillon will see the majority of PT, rather than RBBC?

Agreed. I think Rhodes Addai is the one that will see a period of true RBBC (or odds are it will). Dillon and Foster are nearly 100% going to be their teams' starting RB. Maroney and D. Will will have time to adjust and get their timing fine-tuned, taking the "breather" role. Then if injuries (Foster) or gradual wearing-down (Dillon) occur, you've got a full-time RB ready to start up.I guess it's a risk identification situation, in my mind. Rhodes and Addai could truly be splitting carries pretty quickly, and through the meat of the season. Dillon could slowly wear down and drop back into last years 3.x ypc doldrums. Foster should be very successful as the primary RB, until he gets hurt. Then I'd hope D.Will will be fully ready to go and have Fox's confidence.

 

[stlrams]

I'm going to try to land one of these tandems late in the draft.  Doing mocks, almost every time I can get one of these tandems in the 5th and 6th rd as my RB3 and RB4.  This way, I can see how it pans out and have a solid RB producer down the stretch.

NOTE:  These are the only tandems that I have been able to get late.  Benson/Jones, Bell/Dayne, Bush/McCallister, Taylor/Moore, and other tandems always have one guy going too early.

So, if you could land one of these tandems, which would it be and why?

In the Colt system, the RBs are guaranteed to have opportuities. Plus Dungy commits to one RB vs. using the RBBC approach. The Pats are conserative when using rookies so I suspect Dillon will see majority of PT unless injured. Foster is injury proned,

I fail to see how this hurts Dillon/Maroney. If Dillon gets the majority of carries, he'll produce good numbers, if he gets hurt you have the backup in Maroney. Is it not good that Dillon will see the majority of PT, rather than RBBC?

Historically, Indy would use the same RB in all type of situations vs. the PAts. So Faulk steals 10% of PT on 2nd and 3rd down and long situations with Maroney getting 3-5 carries each game plus garbage time. When you factor in age and injury potential for Dillon the Colts situation is a no brainer as Faulk will get more PT if Dillon goes down,

 

[Phlash]

I'm going to try to land one of these tandems late in the draft. Doing mocks, almost every time I can get one of these tandems in the 5th and 6th rd as my RB3 and RB4. This way, I can see how it pans out and have a solid RB producer down the stretch.

NOTE: These are the only tandems that I have been able to get late. Benson/Jones, Bell/Dayne, Bush/McCallister, Taylor/Moore, and other tandems always have one guy going too early.

So, if you could land one of these tandems, which would it be and why?

In the Colt system, the RBs are guaranteed to have opportuities. Plus Dungy commits to one RB vs. using the RBBC approach. The Pats are conserative when using rookies so I suspect Dillon will see majority of PT unless injured. Foster is injury proned,

LOL, our #1 CB last season was a 3rd round pick that year.Eugene Wilson was the starting FS his rookie season on opening day.

Seymour started almost immediately his first year.

Dan Klecko played offense/defense/special teams, starting at various positions his rookie year.

BB loves to start the rookies, throwing them to the fire and letting em go with it

 

[IndyHavoc]

I agree. Dillon is the most talented of the incumbents, and Maroney is the most talented of the rookies, IMO.

Yipes! At 32 years old you think Dillon is more talented than a healthy 26 year old Foster? Man, I think both in their primes you're hands-down correct....but now? Anyway, I lean heavily toward Carolina simply because Foster runs with so much power/speed (too much so, he doesn't know when his body won't support 3 guys hanging off him as a third lines his legs up for a hit). He'll be the horse, and if by some stroke of luck stays healthy is a stud. If he gets hurt at some point, you're totally covered with another guy that projects to be a studly 3-down back. /shrug, Maroney definitely has questions about his hands, but is indeed a horse. If I knew for sure that BB wouldn't stick with a Dillon in the event of him looking "out-of-gas" like last year, I'd agree that NE is the way to go. Anyone got a better feel for how BB would react if Dillon slowly...well, slows down?

 

[Deuce'sWild]

I think the Colts and Pats complex off schemes may offer more trouble for the rookies early on. The Panthers don't run a ton of audibles, mega formations, and pre snap shifts like the Colts and Pats do. Which is why the Colts will want to work Addai in slowly. Same may be said for Maroney.

Advantage here goes to D. Will for getting more playing time early. Of the three situations, I see the Pats as the ones with the RB1 getting the most workload.

I think Addai/Rhodes and Foster/D. Will will split more. Addai for purposes of working him, and D. Will to get him on the field and keep Foster from getting injured. You know the Panthers are familar w/ Fosters history

 

[LGOA]

I'm going to try to land the Addai/Rhodes combo. Not for homer reasons, but b/c:

1) I already have Rhodes in a keeper/sleeper format league

2) Dungy doesn't tend to switch back and forth much within games. He may use both backs, but typically you know who is going to start and get the lion's share of carries week-to-week

 

[Football Menace]

I'm going to try to land one of these tandems late in the draft.  Doing mocks, almost every time I can get one of these tandems in the 5th and 6th rd as my RB3 and RB4.  This way, I can see how it pans out and have a solid RB producer down the stretch.

NOTE:  These are the only tandems that I have been able to get late.  Benson/Jones, Bell/Dayne, Bush/McCallister, Taylor/Moore, and other tandems always have one guy going too early.

So, if you could land one of these tandems, which would it be and why?

In the Colt system, the RBs are guaranteed to have opportuities. Plus Dungy commits to one RB vs. using the RBBC approach. The Pats are conserative when using rookies so I suspect Dillon will see majority of PT unless injured. Foster is injury proned,

LOL, our #1 CB last season was a 3rd round pick that year.Eugene Wilson was the starting FS his rookie season on opening day.

Seymour started almost immediately his first year.

Dan Klecko played offense/defense/special teams, starting at various positions his rookie year.

BB loves to start the rookies, throwing them to the fire and letting em go with it

Any starting offensive rookies?

 

[stlrams]

I'm going to try to land one of these tandems late in the draft.  Doing mocks, almost every time I can get one of these tandems in the 5th and 6th rd as my RB3 and RB4.  This way, I can see how it pans out and have a solid RB producer down the stretch.

NOTE:  These are the only tandems that I have been able to get late.  Benson/Jones, Bell/Dayne, Bush/McCallister, Taylor/Moore, and other tandems always have one guy going too early.

So, if you could land one of these tandems, which would it be and why?

In the Colt system, the RBs are guaranteed to have opportuities. Plus Dungy commits to one RB vs. using the RBBC approach. The Pats are conserative when using rookies so I suspect Dillon will see majority of PT unless injured. Foster is injury proned,

LOL, our #1 CB last season was a 3rd round pick that year.Eugene Wilson was the starting FS his rookie season on opening day.

Seymour started almost immediately his first year.

Dan Klecko played offense/defense/special teams, starting at various positions his rookie year.

BB loves to start the rookies, throwing them to the fire and letting em go with it

Are you done smoking that crack pipe???? Did they start due to injuries or talent???

 

[JMJ]

As others have mentioned; great thread:

I voted for Foster/Williams. The reason I did so is because I view this as the best potential for a 1 RB show. All 6 of these RBs hold value even in a RBBC. Even the backup RB on these three teams should get 8-10 carries a week or so. I voted for the Foster/Williams since I feel Foster has the highest probability of missing time thus making DeAngelo the highest probability of a lion's share of the work load.

Not wishing it on DeShaun of course ....

 

[JohnnyU]

Not wishing it on DeShaun of course ....

Not that there is anything wrong with that- Jerry Seinfeld

 

[MLBrandow]

I'm going to try to land one of these tandems late in the draft.  Doing mocks, almost every time I can get one of these tandems in the 5th and 6th rd as my RB3 and RB4.  This way, I can see how it pans out and have a solid RB producer down the stretch.

NOTE:  These are the only tandems that I have been able to get late.  Benson/Jones, Bell/Dayne, Bush/McCallister, Taylor/Moore, and other tandems always have one guy going too early.

So, if you could land one of these tandems, which would it be and why?

For me:1) DeShaun Foster/DeAngelo Williams - these guys won't be splitting time, and while I think Foster is overvalued, Williams is very undervalued, and so grabbing both presents you a foolproof RB2 with upside as a fringe RB1 in deeper leagues. I expect DWill to takeover after the first few weeks if he doesn't win the job outright. They are in direct competition and you won't see any RBBC here, just one as a breather back (likely Foster so he doesn't go on IR again). At this point, Foster is really just an insurance policy for DWill, but he should still see action in the first few games if he's the starter, and that alone makes him for me worth the value pick. A 5/6 or 6/7 is not a bad deal to lock a high-end RB2.

2) Corey Dillon/Laurence Maroney - Maroney isn't going to see anything but clean-up role for Dillon this year. You don't even need to handcuff him IMO unless Dillon gets hurt, but if you are going to pick between these three Duos, this one makes the 2nd most sense, because Dillon won't be splitting time with Maroney, and if he goes down, you have Maroney who won't be splitting time with anyone. I am not a fan of Maroney at all and think he reaks of BUST, but because it doesn't matter anyway, since he'll probably not be splitting time, and certainly Dillon won't be splitting time while he's healthy, I think it's still a solid option, although the handcuff is very expensive.

3) Joe Addai/ Dom Rhodes - This is a situation I would try to avoid. While I believe Rhodes is the guy here most of the year, he's very likely to not have the role to himself by fantasy playoffs time, and neither may even be playing full steam if Indy can lock away another early title again. Addai won't see the field early, but they will utilize him as a pass blocker and in certain set packages as a receiver out of the backfield. Even if Rhodes went down in week 1, Addai would have a very small shot at shouldering the load himself because he won't be able to master the playbook, and would probably split time with Mungro (although I'm sure he'd gradually take over more and more as he absorbs more of the plays).

In all honesty, I've actually been pairing Rhodes with DWill, because Rhodes will definitely start longer than Foster will, and DWill will takeover much sooner than Addai, so you've got some wiggle room there and potentially some good trade bait.

 

[B. Nugget]

In all honesty, I've actually been pairing Rhodes with DWill, because Rhodes will definitely start longer than Foster will, and DWill will takeover much sooner than Addai, so you've got some wiggle room there and potentially some good trade bait.

I respect your opinion on this situation, but I've got to ask what you are going to do if by the grace of god, D. Foster stays healthy and Addai jumps right in and gets 60%+ of the carries? I acknowledge that if you hit it right, you'll be sitting pretty, but what if you don't? Do you have a back up plan if you are drafting Rhodes and DWill to be potential starters? If not, you might be the one trying to make a trade to save your season.B. Nugget

 

[Deuce'sWild]

In all honesty, I've actually been pairing Rhodes with DWill, because Rhodes will definitely start longer than Foster will, and DWill will takeover much sooner than Addai, so you've got some wiggle room there and potentially some good trade bait.

I respect your opinion on this situation, but I've got to ask what you are going to do if by the grace of god, D. Foster stays healthy and Addai jumps right in and gets 60%+ of the carries? I acknowledge that if you hit it right, you'll be sitting pretty, but what if you don't? Do you have a back up plan if you are drafting Rhodes and DWill to be potential starters? If not, you might be the one trying to make a trade to save your season.

B. Nugget

I was about to post the same response. This is like playing roulette. Why not pair the team and get a guaranteed starter? Sounds like you are a more go getter, whereas I am a conservative.

 

[Chaos Commish]

ADPs are key to this, imo. We can pick and choose all we want, no one can convince me they have this right at this moment.

Foster (adp 45 or 3.8)

Williams (adp 69 or 5.8)

Your 3rd rounder is very likely to land Foster. I expect his final ADP to be right at the 3-4 (3.10 to 4.02) turn. If you do something else with your 3rd rounder (rb, wr, wr), you run a serious risk of not having any shot at this Team RB. Williams at 5.8 seems high to me and I have been mock drafting nightly, but I expect him to climb as high as posted above or fall to the 7th 8th round. These all need monitoring. Is Foster worth a 3rd? What if DeAngelo shoots up to the 5th? Target degree of difficulty: high.

Addai (adp 54 or 4.6)

Rhodes (adp 68 or 5.8)

Currently, you have to expect to package this team back to back. Again, I am seeing Rhodes falling a little, but the above is probably going to reflect reality, even if they switch positions. Degree of difficulty: very high.

Dillon (adp 42 or 3.6)

Maroney (adp 80 or 6.7)

If Dillon does as many expects and goes through preseason with the job, then his ADP is apt to go up and Maroney's would likewise fall some. This one seems the most doable though. It also seems more like a traditional handcuff than an RB relay.

Degree of difficulty: moderate.

Bell Dayne?

TJ Ced?

JJ MBIII?

Deuce Bush?

There may be better options than the three you isolated.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

ADPs are key to this, imo. We can pick and choose all we want, no one can convince me they have this right at this moment.

Foster (adp 45 or 3.8)

Williams (adp 69 or 5.8)

Your 3rd rounder is very likely to land Foster. I expect his final ADP to be right at the 3-4 (3.10 to 4.02) turn. If you do something else with your 3rd rounder (rb, wr, wr), you run a serious risk of not having any shot at this Team RB. Williams at 5.8 seems high to me and I have been mock drafting nightly, but I expect him to climb as high as posted above or fall to the 7th 8th round. These all need monitoring. Is Foster worth a 3rd? What if DeAngelo shoots up to the 5th? Target degree of difficulty: high.

Addai (adp 54 or 4.6)

Rhodes (adp 68 or 5.8)

Currently, you have to expect to package this team back to back. Again, I am seeing Rhodes falling a little, but the above is probably going to reflect reality, even if they switch positions. Degree of difficulty: very high.

Dillon (adp 42 or 3.6)

Maroney (adp 80 or 6.7)

If Dillon does as many expects and goes through preseason with the job, then his ADP is apt to go up and Maroney's would likewise fall some. This one seems the most doable though. It also seems more like a traditional handcuff than an RB relay.

Degree of difficulty: moderate.

Bell Dayne?

TJ Ced?

JJ MBIII?

Deuce Bush?

There may be better options than the three you isolated.

You didn't read my post carefully. Like I said, I HAVE been able to get these combos on a regular basis at Antsports.com mocks. I can, at least get one of the tandems in the poll for 5 mocks in a row now. I HAVE NOT been able to get any of the ones you mentioned as better....which I already stated.

 

[MLBrandow]

In all honesty, I've actually been pairing Rhodes with DWill, because Rhodes will definitely start longer than Foster will, and DWill will takeover much sooner than Addai, so you've got some wiggle room there and potentially some good trade bait.

I respect your opinion on this situation, but I've got to ask what you are going to do if by the grace of god, D. Foster stays healthy and Addai jumps right in and gets 60%+ of the carries? I acknowledge that if you hit it right, you'll be sitting pretty, but what if you don't? Do you have a back up plan if you are drafting Rhodes and DWill to be potential starters? If not, you might be the one trying to make a trade to save your season.

B. Nugget

I was about to post the same response. This is like playing roulette. Why not pair the team and get a guaranteed starter? Sounds like you are a more go getter, whereas I am a conservative.

If you're looking to do that, definitely go with Foster/DWill... Rhodes IMO will shoulder the load until Addai learns the playbook enough to eat into his carries. Then it could be RBBC, or they could opt to keep Rhodes in since he'll be performing well, or they could yank him at any point late in the season if they clinch a set spot like last year.For me though, being as how I see DWill starting by Week 3 at the latest, and Rhodes not losing a relevant amount of carries until much later in the season, that gives me ends that aren't even in the same ballpark, and with that large of an estimated gap, I don't see how it's a high risk pick.

Of course, if you believe Addai can memorize a hundred pound double-option playbook in three weeks and Foster will somehow manage to not make contact with opposing defenses all season, I suppose it is not a wise investment.

Gruden's playbook is similarly advanced, and the only way they were able to get Cadillac on the field last year was by cutting it in half (virtually no passing plays).

With Rhodes who already looks as solid as they hope Addai can be as a rookie, I see no reason for them to rush him along. TB needed Cadillac, and IND doesn't need Addai IMO.

Plus, Addai is a fantastic pass-blocker, much better than Rhodes, so some of the plays he's slated to learn early will be plays where he just picks up blitzes.

Of course, the same can be said about CAR, but CAR won't be splitting time between RBs, so it ultimately comes down to who plays better, and I think DWill is definitely the better RB.

Also, CAR must be inclined to agree, as they had him #2 on their board and were elated he fell to No.27.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Dillon had 13 tds last year, while being injured. How many of the others do you see having that kind of production?

No way Foster, DWill, Addai or Rhodes gets 13 tds. Dillon has 2 yrs in a row. Why should anything change? And if he goes down, Maroney should be able to pick it up.

 

[jurb26]

Dillon had 13 tds last year, while being injured. How many of the others do you see having that kind of production?

No way Foster, DWill, Addai or Rhodes gets 13 tds. Dillon has 2 yrs in a row. Why should anything change? And if he goes down, Maroney should be able to pick it up.

Ummm, Davis had 12. James 14.NE RB TDs = 16

Car RB TDs = 16

Indy RB TDs = 19

 

[MLBrandow]

Dillon had 13 tds last year, while being injured. How many of the others do you see having that kind of production?

No way Foster, DWill, Addai or Rhodes gets 13 tds. Dillon has 2 yrs in a row. Why should anything change? And if he goes down, Maroney should be able to pick it up.

I beg to differ.
| 8 buf | 34 100 | 45 | 1 || 9 mia | 14 42 | 0 | 0 || 10 nor | 18 67 | 8 | 1 || 11 sfo | 27 104 | 43 | 2 || 12 bal | 16 42 | 25 | 0 || 13 mia | 17 79 | 19 | 0 || 14 atl | 29 177 | 11 | 2 || 15 nyj | 17 126 | 26 | 1 || 16 ram | 20 83 | 9 | 1 || 17 den | 31 141 | 30 | 0 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| TOTAL | 223 961 | 216 | 810 games on a Colts team that went 3-7 with him and 6-10 that year.4.3ypc, 117.7 ypg, 0.8TD per game.

Scales to:

357/1537/346/13

You know what that looks strikingly similar to?

Edge:

| 2003 ind | 13 | 310 1259 4.1 11 | 51 292 5.7 0 || 2004 ind | 16 | 334 1548 4.6 9 | 51 483 9.5 0 || 2005 ind | 15 | 360 1506 4.2 13 | 44 337 7.7 1 |3yr avg: 335/1438/371/11Factor in those 4 games missed, and you get almost verbatim numbers as Rhodes.

365/1569/405/12

With Addai doing nothing but pass-blocking for Rhodes and seeing a few specialized 3rd-down plays until late in the season at best, who's to say Rhodes can't hit these numbers again?

The Colts are a much better team than they were in 2001, and Peyton Manning is a much better QB.

Similarly:

CAR Starting Rushers (GS) -

2003: (14)Davis - 318/1444/159/8, (2)Foster - 43/132/36/1 = 361/1576/195/9

2004: (7)Goings - 182/691/215/6, (2)Foster - 51/225/54/2, (1)Hoover - 24/99/6/0 (2)Davis - 24/92/32/0 = 375/1107/307/8* (scaled to 16 games, only had 12 usable)

2005: (7)Foster - 130/600/117/3, (9)Davis - 160/487/41/12 = 290/1087/158/15

3yr avg: 328/1257/220/11

In 2003, with no RBBC split, 16 games gets you a 1500/10 guy. That makes RB9.

In 2004, with injuries out the wazoo, they still managed to pull off 1400 all purpose and 8 TDs. That would have made RB10 last year.

In 2005, you had a partial RBBC split between Davis/Foster, and it was because of durability/health concerns by the coaching staff, who lost both to injury last year. Even with that, the "leading" ball carrier each game managed 1200/15 split. That would have made RB9.

Here are a few things I believe you misunderstand:

1) The loss of Edge will create RBBC in IND with Rhodes/Addai.

This is false, and for reasons mentioned above, Rhodes will be the starter for most, if not all, of the year.

2) Rhodes will probably put up respectable numbers, but nothing like Edge's.

This is also disproven by his numbers in filling in for Edge.

3) Davis got 8, 0, 12 TDs, Foster has a 0.5TD average for his career, so nowhere does this indicate that Foster will suddenly be a 13TD back.

Well, I agree, but what you can see from the above numbers is that CAR RB (whomever it is, those numbers are not combined, merely taken of the starter) averages 11TD per year. You'd find a hard bargain arguing that DeAngelo Williams won't be at least slightly more capable in finding the endzone than Foster/Davis/Hoover/Goings.

4) The High ankle sprain hampered him all of last season, and he's a warrior who never misses games.

Well, he didn't get the sprain until the ATL game, and he was only averaging 3 ypc before the injury. He also hasn't played a full season since 2002.

It looks to me like all three of these guys, Dillon, Williams and Rhodes, will put up pretty solid numbers.

CAR has put up RB9-10 numbers for the past 3 seasons, despite rampant injuries. With Foster battling for his job, and an eager blue chip rookie in Williams looming, you can expect RB9-10 numbers as a floor from these two backs.

Rhodes showed he can not only handle the load, but fill Edge's shoes when he went down to injury. Now with Addai being drafted to replace him, but IND in no hurry to make Addai the starter, Rhodes is a steal at that value. The threat of RBBC drives his value down, but Addai in no way steals Rhodes' job when he's averaging 120 yards and just under a TD per game all season. Here you have Edge clone numbers for a 6th round ADP, and a 1st round unproven pick that could probably also come close.

Anyway, in summation, I see both putting up "those kind of numbers."

 

[Chaos Commish]

You didn't read my post carefully. Like I said, I HAVE been able to get these combos on a regular basis at Antsports.com mocks.

OH. nevermind...

 

[EBF]

If I had to choose one then I'd pick Dillon/Maroney because it seems the least likely to end up as a RBBC.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Dillon had 13 tds last year, while being injured.  How many of the others do you see having that kind of production?

No way Foster, DWill, Addai or Rhodes gets 13 tds.  Dillon has 2 yrs in a row.  Why should anything change?  And if he goes down, Maroney should be able to pick it up.

Ummm, Davis had 12. James 14.NE RB TDs = 16

Car RB TDs = 16

Indy RB TDs = 19

Right, the team had that td production. What I'm saying is, no way does one of these individuals get 13 tds...imo. They won't have as many opps.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Dillon had 13 tds last year, while being injured.  How many of the others do you see having that kind of production?

No way Foster, DWill, Addai or Rhodes gets 13 tds.  Dillon has 2 yrs in a row.  Why should anything change?  And if he goes down, Maroney should be able to pick it up.

I beg to differ.
|  8  buf  |   34   100  |    45  |  1 ||  9  mia  |   14    42  |     0  |  0 || 10  nor  |   18    67  |     8  |  1 || 11  sfo  |   27   104  |    43  |  2 || 12  bal  |   16    42  |    25  |  0 || 13  mia  |   17    79  |    19  |  0 || 14  atl  |   29   177  |    11  |  2 || 15  nyj  |   17   126  |    26  |  1 || 16  ram  |   20    83  |     9  |  1 || 17  den  |   31   141  |    30  |  0 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  TOTAL   |  223  961  |   216  |  810 games on a Colts team that went 3-7 with him and 6-10 that year.4.3ypc, 117.7 ypg, 0.8TD per game.

Scales to:

357/1537/346/13

You know what that looks strikingly similar to?

Edge:

| 2003 ind |  13 |   310   1259    4.1   11 |    51    292   5.7    0 || 2004 ind |  16 |   334   1548    4.6    9 |    51    483   9.5    0 || 2005 ind |  15 |   360   1506    4.2   13 |    44    337   7.7    1 |3yr avg: 335/1438/371/11Factor in those 4 games missed, and you get almost verbatim numbers as Rhodes.

365/1569/405/12

With Addai doing nothing but pass-blocking for Rhodes and seeing a few specialized 3rd-down plays until late in the season at best, who's to say Rhodes can't hit these numbers again?

The Colts are a much better team than they were in 2001, and Peyton Manning is a much better QB.

Similarly:

CAR Starting Rushers (GS) -

2003: (14)Davis - 318/1444/159/8, (2)Foster - 43/132/36/1 = 361/1576/195/9

2004: (7)Goings - 182/691/215/6, (2)Foster - 51/225/54/2, (1)Hoover - 24/99/6/0 (2)Davis - 24/92/32/0 = 375/1107/307/8* (scaled to 16 games, only had 12 usable)

2005: (7)Foster - 130/600/117/3, (9)Davis - 160/487/41/12 = 290/1087/158/15

3yr avg: 328/1257/220/11

In 2003, with no RBBC split, 16 games gets you a 1500/10 guy. That makes RB9.

In 2004, with injuries out the wazoo, they still managed to pull off 1400 all purpose and 8 TDs. That would have made RB10 last year.

In 2005, you had a partial RBBC split between Davis/Foster, and it was because of durability/health concerns by the coaching staff, who lost both to injury last year. Even with that, the "leading" ball carrier each game managed 1200/15 split. That would have made RB9.

Here are a few things I believe you misunderstand:

1) The loss of Edge will create RBBC in IND with Rhodes/Addai.

This is false, and for reasons mentioned above, Rhodes will be the starter for most, if not all, of the year.

2) Rhodes will probably put up respectable numbers, but nothing like Edge's.

This is also disproven by his numbers in filling in for Edge.

3) Davis got 8, 0, 12 TDs, Foster has a 0.5TD average for his career, so nowhere does this indicate that Foster will suddenly be a 13TD back.

Well, I agree, but what you can see from the above numbers is that CAR RB (whomever it is, those numbers are not combined, merely taken of the starter) averages 11TD per year. You'd find a hard bargain arguing that DeAngelo Williams won't be at least slightly more capable in finding the endzone than Foster/Davis/Hoover/Goings.

4) The High ankle sprain hampered him all of last season, and he's a warrior who never misses games.

Well, he didn't get the sprain until the ATL game, and he was only averaging 3 ypc before the injury. He also hasn't played a full season since 2002.

It looks to me like all three of these guys, Dillon, Williams and Rhodes, will put up pretty solid numbers.

CAR has put up RB9-10 numbers for the past 3 seasons, despite rampant injuries. With Foster battling for his job, and an eager blue chip rookie in Williams looming, you can expect RB9-10 numbers as a floor from these two backs.

Rhodes showed he can not only handle the load, but fill Edge's shoes when he went down to injury. Now with Addai being drafted to replace him, but IND in no hurry to make Addai the starter, Rhodes is a steal at that value. The threat of RBBC drives his value down, but Addai in no way steals Rhodes' job when he's averaging 120 yards and just under a TD per game all season. Here you have Edge clone numbers for a 6th round ADP, and a 1st round unproven pick that could probably also come close.

Anyway, in summation, I see both putting up "those kind of numbers."

Very nice post. Leaves me scratching my head and wondering a couple of things. One, if Rhodes is capable of producing "Edge-like" numbers, why did the Colts use a first rd pick on Addai? Two, with Manning being a better QB and the Wrs being better....do they throw a ton this year?

 

[MLBrandow]

Very nice post.      Leaves me scratching my head and wondering a couple of things.  One, if Rhodes is capable of producing "Edge-like" numbers, why did the Colts use a first rd pick on Addai?  Two, with Manning being a better QB and the Wrs being better....do they throw a ton this year?

1) Dom couldn't block a one-way tunnel with a Semi Truck.2) I'd like to believe Manning plans on aspiring for 50/50 balance again. With two fresh backs eager to prove themselves, I think he's got a good shot at it.

I think the real question is:

If Dom Rhodes can produce Edge-like numbers, and Edge is the consensus better talent, what does that mean for Edge in Arizona?

 

[The Jerk]

Very nice post.       Leaves me scratching my head and wondering a couple of things.  One, if Rhodes is capable of producing "Edge-like" numbers, why did the Colts use a first rd pick on Addai?  Two, with Manning being a better QB and the Wrs being better....do they throw a ton this year?

1) Dom couldn't block a one-way tunnel with a Semi Truck.2) I'd like to believe Manning plans on aspiring for 50/50 balance again. With two fresh backs eager to prove themselves, I think he's got a good shot at it.

I think the real question is:

If Dom Rhodes can produce Edge-like numbers, and Edge is the consensus better talent, what does that mean for Edge in Arizona?

MLB,I agree with the last part of your post. I don't see Edge arriving in Arizona as curing all of the Cardinals rushing woes. However, it's not as simple as you suggest for Rhodes to step in and deliver those numbers NOW. The ten games you list are from 2001. The next season Rhodes was lost to injury and struggled with other injuries over the past three seasons despite not having a huge workload. Last year of course he averaged 3.0 ypc -- those are NOT Edge-type numbers.

I actually own Rhodes and could keep him in a 3-keep league but I'm not convinced he can carry the load like he did five seasons ago. I think the Colts drafted Addai to help pass block as you listed and to use at least 1/3 of the time or clearly more if Rhodes gets injured again.

So... convince me that Rhodes will be healthy and that Addai will not handle at least 1/3 of the touches in 2006. I WANT to believe.

 

[MLBrandow]

I actually own Rhodes and could keep him in a 3-keep league but I'm not convinced he can carry the load like he did five seasons ago. I think the Colts drafted Addai to help pass block as you listed and to use at least 1/3 of the time or clearly more if Rhodes gets injured again.

So... convince me that Rhodes will be healthy and that Addai will not handle at least 1/3 of the touches in 2006. I WANT to believe.

Okay, well, beyond restating what I already have.... this is my line of reasoning.What's the floor, honestly, for pretty much any RB of a fair skill level in IND?

To me, like 1200/10. Those are solid numbers.

Whatever your predictions on the IND RB floor, I'm sure it's a pretty good deal higher than most teams.

Anyway, consider that Rhodes is playing for a big contract, is in a position where he almost can't fail running the ball, and he'll almost certianly be forced out of the lineup when Manning calls a pass play with RB in the backfield, because his blocking skills leave much to be desired. It's no knock on his ability to run the ball.... blocking is just something some guys aren't good at.

Addai though, he is a great pass blocker (at least IMO, and many seem to share the same sentiment). At the very least, he is a big upgrade over Rhodes.

Say you are Tony Dungy. You want to protect your hundred million dollar QB, whose salary comprises about 11% of your salary cap. You have this back who's going to run the ball successfully in Rhodes, and you have this back who also could run the ball successfully, but has to learn the entire playbook to be an every down back, and also can pass block maybe as well as Edge can, but certainly a great deal better than Rhodes.

Now, you have a decision to make. You don't want Manning on his ###, because that leads to losses (it's no coincidence he was sacked so much more with Rhodes in the lineup. While Rhodes cloned Edge's numbers in '01, he had to have been far and away Peyton's worst enemy on Monday mornings).

So, what do you do? Do you forcefeed a playbook to a rookie and in a few months expect that he knows it in and out? Or do you focus him on pass-blocking and being a receiver out of the backfield, two things he's pretty damn good at, and two things he can learn at the same time in the same book of plays.

If I'm the coach, I say "okay Addai, you are going to memorize your blocking assignments and come in on obvious passing situations, and also in these set packages here to spell Rhodes on third downs. We'll try to work you in more as the season goes on, but you have to show us that you can do the grunt work first."

And to Rhodes I go "okay Dom. Here's your chance to get a big payday. We might try to re-sign and trade you, but at the very least, we're going to ride you all the way to the postseason hopefully a Super Bowl this year. This is your chance to show the other 31 NFL teams that you can be a monster and a great RB. You don't have to worry about pissing Peyton off because we drafted Addai to block for you on 3rd downs and catch a few balls out of the backfield. Show the world what you have (again), and you'll get yourself a fat contract in the offseason."

Now, say Addai looks great in his few touches, that's good, but do you honestly believe Rhodes is going to "struggle"? You know IND is going to be winning most of its games, and at the least, more than they lose. Why would they replace a guy on pace for a 1200/10, 1300/15, 1100/8, anything resembling a solid RB performance.

Why do they replace it with Addai? You don't mess with a winning formula unless you have no choice.

My belief is that Addai gets 3rd down back carries until perhaps the last week or two of the season, when IND has their postseason position solidified, and then they'll let him loose and see what he can do.

Does that sound convincing at all?

Also, as per addressing your actual statistical points:

How many RBs in the league don't lose 1/3 of the RB carries?

When you see a "4 TD" next to a "40 attempts" it does not necessarily indicate that he was bad because he only had 3ypc. Heck, if anything it would indicate they might believe Dom could be better at pounding it in at the goal-line, which has been a consistent knock on Edge has it not?

Is there a stats splitter that can find his splits inside the 10, 5, etc?

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Hard for me to believe that Dungy would want a rookie protecting his franchise QB, rather than a Vet that knows the playbook inside out. What happens the first time Addai misses an assignment? Is he really that much better of a blocker than Rhodes? Further, I don't think anyone spends a 1st rd pick on a blocking RB. In other words, he's there to play every down, as "Edge's replacement". That's what they were looking for with that pick, someone to be the every down back.

 

[mistersmith]

I'm sure Dillon and Maroney will put up nice numbers for the Pats this year, but just a small warning - as a Dillon owner last year, it became a huge headache trying to figure out who Belichick was going to play - Patrick Pass, Heath Evans, and Corey Dillon. Ever since that Atlanta game (where Atlanta said Vick was going to play but he didn't) Belichick has been playing mind games with the injured reserve list. As a Dillon/Evans owner, that got me few zeroes in the rb spot. Yeah, I realize Dilllon was injured last year, but given his injury history I could easily see this headache repeating itself this year.

 

[ebcpastor2004]

Okay- I'm a newbie this year to FBG, but this is the single, most relevant post that I've come across yet. (And I read here everyday.)

These tandems are very possible for me and I've been trying to figure this one out for awhile now. I also agree with the guy that mentioned other "better" possibilities (see Bell/ Dayne, Jones/ Benson, etc...) However, I definitely think these three tandems are leading that pack.

I voted Foster/ DWill. Their opps and their youth put them ahead of Dillon/ Maroney. I'm an Edge owner in a Keeper league so I'm very intrigued by the Indy group, but you guys have convinced me that Dillon/ Maroney is # 2.

Dillon will score, we can pretty much agree on that, but he's not going to take it to the house from 50 yards out. They will pound it, pound it, pound it and CDILL will grind it out for the most part. But, can he get more than 3.5 ypc this year because that's what he averaged last year. He's going to lose some downs because he can't gain 10 yards on his own anymore. He will not be able to play the whole game without losing significant reps to either- 1. a 3rd down back (Faulk or LM, you choose whether you think BB will play an offensive rook or not) or, 2. a short pass to the tight ends (highly likely). And in the past 3 years he's only been healthy one (his first year as a Pat). I think this is the last year that CDILL will be a #1 back & that next year it will be LM so if you're dynasty handcuff LM to CDILL. I don't think LM would be a keeper in my league (unless something dramatic played out this season that made him the uncontested #1 and he blows up, but this is unlikely) so he will probably be available next year in the draft.

That makes Joe/ Dom # 3 out of these, but the more I think about the sitch, the less I like it for them. All the Colts do is win, but they might slip back a little this year. After losing Edge, I can't see any improvements on the offense so what makes us think they can rack up 13 wins. I think they will pass more than they want to, especially in the red zone. How is Joe/ Dom more likely to get in the end zone than Harrison/ Wayne? So after this thread, I'm actually putting some others above Joe/ Dom now (Broncos/ Bears RBs certainly come to mind as two that will probably be better). But as far as Dynasty or Keeper; Let's kind of all agree that next year the #1 RBs will be this years Rooks (DWILL, JADDAI, LM) so if you need to get your hands on them this year to lock them up for next year, take them according to who will be better next year.

I see this alot, but just a newbie's .02.

 

[MLBrandow]

That makes Joe/ Dom # 3 out of these, but the more I think about the sitch, the less I like it for them. All the Colts do is win, but they might slip back a little this year. After losing Edge, I can't see any improvements on the offense so what makes us think they can rack up 13 wins.

I agree. Pass-blocking by the RBs is going to make or break the Colts this year.If Peyton can't trust Addai to pick up the blitz (I think he can, but I know Rhodes is out of the equation here), then he'll be pulling from Shotgun a lot more, and passing a lot more.

Certainly that's good for Manning, but I don't see how it's good for the health of his offense being forced to hike from Shotgun anytime he wants to pass the ball (what he ultimately had to do with Rhodes in '01).

It's still hard to not like the Colts though to win at least 12 games.

 

[newbetterbucs05]

Dillion and Marroney

 

[Table]

Chris Brown/Lendale White is gonna be the cats meow this year.

How could you not include this tandum?

 

[MLBrandow]

Hard for me to believe that Dungy would want a rookie protecting his franchise QB, rather than a Vet that knows the playbook inside out. What happens the first time Addai misses an assignment? Is he really that much better of a blocker than Rhodes? Further, I don't think anyone spends a 1st rd pick on a blocking RB. In other words, he's there to play every down, as "Edge's replacement". That's what they were looking for with that pick, someone to be the every down back.

No, they didn't draft a blocking RB in the first round. They drafted a third down back for this year who is excellent at picking up the blitz, and a guy who can start next year and be a hopefully dominant RB.Rhodes knows all the plays, but that doesn't mean he can pick up a blitz to save his life.

And just like you said, Addai needs to learn the playbook. Giving him only 3rd down packages will ensure he gets on the field early and often in passing situations so that he can a) catch out of the backfield, and b) help keep Manning on his feet).

 

[mike303]

Chris Brown/Lendale White is gonna be the cats meow this year.

How could you not include this tandum?

It might end up being White/Henry. Brown sees the writing on the wall and wants out of Tennessee.