Get your qb's early this year (1 Viewer)

[Sea Bass]

My top five:

1 - P. Manning

2 - C. Palmer

3 - D. Brees

4 - T. Brady

5 - M. Bulger

After that you are playing with fire. McNabb has health issues, Vick has legal issues, and Kitna has interception issues. Most of the rest are either young qb's with unclear potential or older players showing obvious decline.

I would suggest that if you don't get a top five player you are better off waiting until much later and take two potential guys.

 

[duaneok66]

My top five:1 - P. Manning2 - C. Palmer3 - D. Brees4 - T. Brady5 - M. BulgerAfter that you are playing with fire. McNabb has health issues, Vick has legal issues, and Kitna has interception issues. Most of the rest are either young qb's with unclear potential or older players showing obvious decline.I would suggest that if you don't get a top five player you are better off waiting until much later and take two potential guys.

I'd take McNabb and Kitna over Brady . . . at the very least, they belong in the top 7 . . .Kitna especially - last year, he was playing with (basically) two receivers; this year he has four . . . watch out . . .

 

[BLOX]

Brees will not be top 5 this year.

1) McNabb

2) Manning

3) Palmer

4) Kitna

5) Favre

 

[Synthesizer]

Only one problem.... McNabb scored more per game last year than all 5 of those guys, Vick outscored Palmer, and Kitna outscored Brady. So it's not like it's a huge dropoff to the QBs ranked 6-10.

 

[ivnabru]

I've found if you wait until the 9th or 10th round guys like Alex Smith, Ben Roethlisberger, and JP Losman are falling. They aren't guys who are going to win you games, but I expect all 3 to be solid enough to win with if you make good use out of those extra early picks.

Not to mention if you wait about 3 or so rounds after Bulger you can still get Rivers who will probably match his TD/INT numbers and just have less yards.

By the way, what the heck happened to make everyone so high on Bulger? 2006 was the first 16 game season of his career.

 

[David Yudkin]

Brees will not be top 5 this year.1) McNabb2) Manning3) Palmer4) Kitna5) Favre

McNabb accounted for 4100 yards and 34 TD in 2004 . . . and ranked 3rd. He's never been anywhere that productive in any other season passing the ball. His one other season when he performed close to that level (before getting hurt) was 2002 when he was on pace for 750 rushing yards and 10 rushing TD (and given his health I doubt he'll put up rushing numbers anywhere close to that).There's no doubt that McNabb has stretches where he puts up big numbers but in 8 years he has yet to be able to combine top QB performance and full health over 16 games. I don't see that changing this season (although he should be excellent when he plays and likely Top 5 on a ppg basis).

 

[seahawk 17]

My top five:1 - P. Manning2 - C. Palmer3 - D. Brees4 - T. Brady5 - M. BulgerAfter that you are playing with fire. McNabb has health issues, Vick has legal issues, and Kitna has interception issues. Most of the rest are either young qb's with unclear potential or older players showing obvious decline.I would suggest that if you don't get a top five player you are better off waiting until much later and take two potential guys.

Hasselbeck after surgery, and getting a revamped O-Line will be top 5. Better than Bulger and most likely Brady.

 

[chook]

Then there's guys like Cutler et al. There is a drop off, but I don't think it's as huge as the OP suggests.

Same as most other years IMO.

 

[Sea Bass]

If healthy McNabb belongs. If his own predictions are accurate Kitna belongs. If he can put his troubles behing him Vick belongs. If any of the young guns live up to the hype they belong. I'm sorry I just don't see Favre anywhere near the top five.....how long has it been since his last top five season?

If I can't get one of these five I plan to use a two qb system until one of them challanges the elite players.

 

[twistd]

My top five:1 - P. Manning2 - C. Palmer3 - D. Brees4 - T. Brady5 - M. BulgerAfter that you are playing with fire. McNabb has health issues, Vick has legal issues, and Kitna has interception issues. Most of the rest are either young qb's with unclear potential or older players showing obvious decline.I would suggest that if you don't get a top five player you are better off waiting until much later and take two potential guys.

I'd take McNabb and Kitna over Brady . . . at the very least, they belong in the top 7 . . .Kitna especially - last year, he was playing with (basically) two receivers; this year he has four . . . watch out . . .

McNabb will help you get to the playoffs. He won't be around when playoff time comes. He can't stay healthy. Brady stays healthy every year. He has a whole new array of weapons. Do you suppose that the Patriots went and got all those receivers because they didn't like how the other guys looked in the jerseys? My guess is that if they loaded up with all those weapons, they plan to use them. McNabb is going a round after Brady, not worth the risk in my book. I'd probably be more likely to draft Kitna. Primarily because Kitna can probably be picked up a couple of rounds after Brady. But I don't expect that Kitna will outperform Brady.

 

[Smashmouth Fan]

My top five:1 - P. Manning2 - C. Palmer3 - D. Brees4 - T. Brady5 - M. BulgerAfter that you are playing with fire. McNabb has health issues, Vick has legal issues, and Kitna has interception issues. Most of the rest are either young qb's with unclear potential or older players showing obvious decline.I would suggest that if you don't get a top five player you are better off waiting until much later and take two potential guys.

Hasselbeck after surgery, and getting a revamped O-Line will be top 5. Better than Bulger and most likely Brady.

 

[Tiger Fan]

quality analysis here

 

[David Yudkin]

My top five:1 - P. Manning2 - C. Palmer3 - D. Brees4 - T. Brady5 - M. BulgerAfter that you are playing with fire. McNabb has health issues, Vick has legal issues, and Kitna has interception issues. Most of the rest are either young qb's with unclear potential or older players showing obvious decline.I would suggest that if you don't get a top five player you are better off waiting until much later and take two potential guys.

Hasselbeck after surgery, and getting a revamped O-Line will be top 5. Better than Bulger and most likely Brady.

I'm not sure Branch/Hackett/Pollard is on par with the likes of D-Jax/K-Rob/Stevens. Jones is still an elite OLman but has had some bumps and bruises along the way and IMO they again will miss Hutchinson. I also don't see SA returning production wise to where he was a couple of years ago.Scoring wise I see him a fair amount away from the Top 5 although he should be able to rank in the bottom of the Top 10.

 

[Sea Bass]

As a Seahawk fan it isn't easy for me to say but I would not take Hasselbeck at #6. My point is if you wait to take the tenth and eleventh qb drafted you could easily end up with the sixth and eighth qb's in your personal rankings. This would give you plenty of time to load up at the other positions.

 

[Routilla]

I have to disagree with the OP. I would much rather load my roster with RBs and WRs early and grab Kitna, Leinart, Romo etc. a little later.

 

[Sea Bass]

I have to disagree with the OP. I would much rather load my roster with RBs and WRs early and grab Kitna, Leinart, Romo etc. a little later.

I may have worded the forum topic poorly. I am suggesting that if I don't get a top five qb then I will wait until much later so that I can do exactly what you are saying.

 

[Brewzers]

I have to disagree with the OP. I would much rather load my roster with RBs and WRs early and grab Kitna, Leinart, Romo etc. a little later.

I agree with this strategy. I also think there is a drop off after PManning and then it gets bunched up from QB 2 - 9.

 

[Blue-Kun]

I have to disagree with the OP. I would much rather load my roster with RBs and WRs early and grab Kitna, Leinart, Romo etc. a little later.

How do those two get lumped in with Kitna this year? Is it even close in scoring potential?

 

[seahawk 17]

My top five:1 - P. Manning2 - C. Palmer3 - D. Brees4 - T. Brady5 - M. BulgerAfter that you are playing with fire. McNabb has health issues, Vick has legal issues, and Kitna has interception issues. Most of the rest are either young qb's with unclear potential or older players showing obvious decline.I would suggest that if you don't get a top five player you are better off waiting until much later and take two potential guys.

Hasselbeck after surgery, and getting a revamped O-Line will be top 5. Better than Bulger and most likely Brady.

I'm not sure Branch/Hackett/Pollard is on par with the likes of D-Jax/K-Rob/Stevens. Jones is still an elite OLman but has had some bumps and bruises along the way and IMO they again will miss Hutchinson. I also don't see SA returning production wise to where he was a couple of years ago.Scoring wise I see him a fair amount away from the Top 5 although he should be able to rank in the bottom of the Top 10.

Hasselbeck has only ranked top 5 once(NFL stats) that was in 2003. He threw for 3841 yards 26/15 and had a rating of 88.8That year D-Jax had 1137 yards K-Rob 896, Stevens 72 and all other WR/TE 1736 rec yards.Using career highs Hackett 610 yards(06) Burleson 1006(04) Branch 998(05) and Pollard 516(2nd highest in 05) that totals 3130 yards which means with career bests Hasselbeck only has to throw 711 yards to other players.I'm not saying these guys put up career highs, but I don't see the drop off in talent that you do. Hasselbeck had horrible timing last year due to new additions, lost of Hutch, and injury. Brady will have chemistry issues due to a whole new WR corp, and Bulger will not throw as much with S-Jax running the ball.Chemistry and timing will be down with Branch, Burleson, and Hackett after a year together. Surgery and time off brings Hasselbeck back to 100%, along with solid O-Line that is also healthy and has time to build chemistry. Seattle may have had the same starting line last year in 3 games max.

 

[-OZ-]

I agree with the strategy, but Palmer is not in a group with QBs 6-9.

Peyton is a lock for top 3, probably #1

Palmer is a lock for top 3, possibly #1, probably #2

Brady is a lock for top 7, could be anywhere from 1-7 (depends on Maroney and Moss)

Bulger is a lock for top 7, could be anywhere from 3-7, I just don't think he can beat Peyton or Palmer.

Brees seems like a lock for top 7, but there are some minor questions here. Could be #3-7

After that, I don't consider anyone else a "lock" for top 7. As Seabass said,

If healthy McNabb belongs.

If his own predictions are accurate Kitna belongs. (and he lowers his INTs)

If he can put his troubles behind him Vick belongs.

If he can improve in his 2nd year, Cutler belongs

If he can improve in his 2nd year, Leinart belongs

If he finds receivers, VY belongs

If he can rise above the troubles of last year, Roethlisberger belongs

If he is alright after his surgery and the Seahawks offense revives itself, Hasselbeck belongs.

Top 5 QBs are relatively safe, then it's a whole lot of If

That's not to say I'd reach for one of the 5, but Seabass is again correct, If I can't get one of the top 5 at a value, I'm taking 2 of the If's and hoping one lives up to their potential

 

[David Yudkin]

My top five:1 - P. Manning2 - C. Palmer3 - D. Brees4 - T. Brady5 - M. BulgerAfter that you are playing with fire. McNabb has health issues, Vick has legal issues, and Kitna has interception issues. Most of the rest are either young qb's with unclear potential or older players showing obvious decline.I would suggest that if you don't get a top five player you are better off waiting until much later and take two potential guys.

Hasselbeck after surgery, and getting a revamped O-Line will be top 5. Better than Bulger and most likely Brady.

I'm not sure Branch/Hackett/Pollard is on par with the likes of D-Jax/K-Rob/Stevens. Jones is still an elite OLman but has had some bumps and bruises along the way and IMO they again will miss Hutchinson. I also don't see SA returning production wise to where he was a couple of years ago.Scoring wise I see him a fair amount away from the Top 5 although he should be able to rank in the bottom of the Top 10.

Hasselbeck has only ranked top 5 once(NFL stats) that was in 2003. He threw for 3841 yards 26/15 and had a rating of 88.8That year D-Jax had 1137 yards K-Rob 896, Stevens 72 and all other WR/TE 1736 rec yards.Using career highs Hackett 610 yards(06) Burleson 1006(04) Branch 998(05) and Pollard 516(2nd highest in 05) that totals 3130 yards which means with career bests Hasselbeck only has to throw 711 yards to other players.I'm not saying these guys put up career highs, but I don't see the drop off in talent that you do. Hasselbeck had horrible timing last year due to new additions, lost of Hutch, and injury. Brady will have chemistry issues due to a whole new WR corp, and Bulger will not throw as much with S-Jax running the ball.Chemistry and timing will be down with Branch, Burleson, and Hackett after a year together. Surgery and time off brings Hasselbeck back to 100%, along with solid O-Line that is also healthy and has time to build chemistry. Seattle may have had the same starting line last year in 3 games max.

I'm not sure I agree with the assessment of the Patriots. NE ranked 11th in team passing yards and 7th in team passing TD last year with a new set of WRs (and not particularly good ones at that). Brady still managed to rank 7th last year--even with some of their WR added late in the preseason or DURING the season. Remember, Branch was traded AFTER the season started, so the plan was still to have him available. The current crop of WRs is by leaps and bounds the best Brady has had to work with and I can't see how he won't rank higher with a talented group of weapons.Hasselbeck could be in the Top 5 again, but IMO that would rest on several other QB in the league getting injured--and it might take a career year for MH to rank that high again.

 

[Mapmaker]

I agree with the strategy, but Palmer is not in a group with QBs 6-9.

Peyton is a lock for top 3, probably #1

Palmer is a lock for top 3, possibly #1, probably #2

Brady is a lock for top 7, could be anywhere from 1-7 (depends on Maroney and Moss)

Bulger is a lock for top 7, could be anywhere from 3-7, I just don't think he can beat Peyton or Palmer.

Brees seems like a lock for top 7, but there are some minor questions here. Could be #3-7

After that, I don't consider anyone else a "lock" for top 7. As Seabass said,

If healthy McNabb belongs.

If his own predictions are accurate Kitna belongs. (and he lowers his INTs)

If he can put his troubles behind him Vick belongs.

If he can improve in his 2nd year, Cutler belongs

If he can improve in his 2nd year, Leinart belongs

If he finds receivers, VY belongs

If he can rise above the troubles of last year, Roethlisberger belongs

If he is alright after his surgery and the Seahawks offense revives itself, Hasselbeck belongs.

Top 5 QBs are relatively safe, then it's a whole lot of If

That's not to say I'd reach for one of the 5, but Seabass is again correct, If I can't get one of the top 5 at a value, I'm taking 2 of the If's and hoping one lives up to their potential

This looks pretty close to my thinking as well .... if I can't get one of the top 5 (Manning, Brady, Palmer, Bulgar, Brees) in or before the 5th round (12 team) then I'll be targeting 2 of the IF's back to back in rounds 7-9 depending on the flow of the draft. There's just too many QB's with too many unknown issues for my taste ... new coaching staffs, sophmore slump possibility, questionable receiving corp etc.

 

[rzrback77]

I agree with the strategy, but Palmer is not in a group with QBs 6-9.

Peyton is a lock for top 3, probably #1

Palmer is a lock for top 3, possibly #1, probably #2

Brady is a lock for top 7, could be anywhere from 1-7 (depends on Maroney and Moss)

Bulger is a lock for top 7, could be anywhere from 3-7, I just don't think he can beat Peyton or Palmer.

Brees seems like a lock for top 7, but there are some minor questions here. Could be #3-7

After that, I don't consider anyone else a "lock" for top 7. As Seabass said,

If healthy McNabb belongs.

If his own predictions are accurate Kitna belongs. (and he lowers his INTs)

If he can put his troubles behind him Vick belongs.

If he can improve in his 2nd year, Cutler belongs

If he can improve in his 2nd year, Leinart belongs

If he finds receivers, VY belongs

If he can rise above the troubles of last year, Roethlisberger belongs

If he is alright after his surgery and the Seahawks offense revives itself, Hasselbeck belongs.

Top 5 QBs are relatively safe, then it's a whole lot of If

That's not to say I'd reach for one of the 5, but Seabass is again correct, If I can't get one of the top 5 at a value, I'm taking 2 of the If's and hoping one lives up to their potential

To me, this is the opposite of the thread title. When I read, I entered to object because I think that Manning and Palmer will both be selected earlier than usual in most leagues. Very likely that Brady and Brees will similarly go higher than ADP. So I thought that the OP was saying you must commit to an early QB selection. I'm sure that most will agree that Manning and Palmer should finish very high and most would be happy to have them on their team at value. I just don't think there will be many opportunities to grab them at value.On the other hand, I think that there are a lot of valid value plays much later. I will most likely wait till later and take two or three bargain basement price QBs like Roethlisberger FBG QB16, Losman, Pennington, Delhomme, Campbell, or Garcia, all even later than Big Ben.

 

[Obie Wan]

As a Seahawk fan it isn't easy for me to say but I would not take Hasselbeck at #6. My point is if you wait to take the tenth and eleventh qb drafted you could easily end up with the sixth and eighth qb's in your personal rankings. This would give you plenty of time to load up at the other positions.

how much "loading up" can you do when you are passing on 1 QB in the 3rd or 4th round for a RB or WR?

 

[Pole Cat]

Brees will not be top 5 this year.

1) McNabb

2) Manning

3) Palmer

4) Kitna

5) Favre

Seems to be some doubts about Brees in this thread, and I'm sitting here trying to figure out where it comes from. I can't see the loss of Horn hurting that much. If anything the progression of Bush, Henderson, Colston and the addition of a TE and Meachem has to suggest that his numbers can surpass last year.

 

[David Yudkin]

Brees will not be top 5 this year.

1) McNabb

2) Manning

3) Palmer

4) Kitna

5) Favre

Seems to be some doubts about Brees in this thread, and I'm sitting here trying to figure out where it comes from. I can't see the loss of Horn hurting that much. If anything the progression of Bush, Henderson, Colston and the addition of a TE and Meachem has to suggest that his numbers can surpass last year.

From the Staff Over/Under Valued article . . .

Brees may be the classic case of paying a premium (or even overpaying) to obtain a player the year after a great season. Brees became only the 20th QB to throw for 4,400 yards in a season. Only two were able to hit that level again and only three others could even get 4,000 passing yards the following year. On five occasions, a QB played and stayed healthy and dropped off by over 1,000 passing yards. With only about 25% of those players even able to hit 4,000 yards, I'm not loving the history of repeatability in this instance. He may be in for another solid campaign this year, but ranking in the Top Three again will be extremely tough.

 

[Pick]

I agree with the original premise. However, the dropoff from early-round RBs/WRs to late-round RBs/WRs is greater than the same for QBs, no?

 

[FFdork]

I don't really see how this year is different from any other. There are usually a few elite QB prospects with a dropoff after that. However, the dropoff from QBs 1-12 is rarely as much as RBs 1-24 or WRs 1-36. What am I missing here?

I'll take one of those top 5 QBs, but only if they fall far enough (for whatever reason, in my 10 team leagues one usually does).

Almost every year there are a few QBs that are taken somewhere between 8-12 that end up being right there with the elite QBs. Read this board, read FBGs, and watch some preseason games and you'll start to get a feel for who the candidates are. I'm not a genius (just a dork) and I've been able to hit on a great undervalued QB almost every year. The key for me is to wait on QBs and then hedge your bets by taking a couple of your undervalued QBs, usually somewhere around rounds 7-11 in a pretty standard redraft.

 

[Brewzers]

I agree with the strategy, but Palmer is not in a group with QBs 6-9.

Peyton is a lock for top 3, probably #1

Palmer is a lock for top 3, possibly #1, probably #2

Brady is a lock for top 7, could be anywhere from 1-7 (depends on Maroney and Moss)

Bulger is a lock for top 7, could be anywhere from 3-7, I just don't think he can beat Peyton or Palmer.

Brees seems like a lock for top 7, but there are some minor questions here. Could be #3-7

After that, I don't consider anyone else a "lock" for top 7. As Seabass said,

If healthy McNabb belongs.

If his own predictions are accurate Kitna belongs. (and he lowers his INTs)

If he can put his troubles behind him Vick belongs.

If he can improve in his 2nd year, Cutler belongs

If he can improve in his 2nd year, Leinart belongs

If he finds receivers, VY belongs

If he can rise above the troubles of last year, Roethlisberger belongs

If he is alright after his surgery and the Seahawks offense revives itself, Hasselbeck belongs.

Top 5 QBs are relatively safe, then it's a whole lot of If

That's not to say I'd reach for one of the 5, but Seabass is again correct, If I can't get one of the top 5 at a value, I'm taking 2 of the If's and hoping one lives up to their potential

I mostly agree and I like the way you presented this. My point was, I dont' think there are five QBs in the top tier. Maybe there are two QBs in the top tier, I can buy that. I don't think I need to burn a QB pick in the first 4 rounds to ensure I get someone from the OP's list of 5. I think there are at least 7 or more relatively equal 'ifs" (beyond the top 2) that will do just fine and I won't be "playing with fire" when I pick an "if" in the 6th or 7th round. It really just depends on who falls and how far.

 

[joffer]

I have to disagree with the OP. I would much rather load my roster with RBs and WRs early and grab Kitna, Leinart, Romo etc. a little later.

what he said

 

[gman8343]

I also think Hass will rebound this year, and he can be had quite late. The guy is a gamer and I think his WRs will be better than the last few years (Hackett/Branch/Burleson should be a good trio).

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Are you playing CFL Fantasy Football this year? In the National Football League, the depth at QB for fantasy football's sake is insane this year. You could wait until the 10th round to start picking up QBs and be fine, and starting in the 8th leaves you in very good shape.

There's a huge dropoff in terms of being a "lock" for the tops at their position every year after the top ONE (Baltimore) for team defense. I guess it's about time you start selecting Peyton in the 1st round and Baltimore's Defense in the 2nd. Actually, better swap that around and make sure you get Baltimore by taking them in the 1st.

Crazy, crazy thread...

 

[maccabees]

I have to disagree with the OP. I would much rather load my roster with RBs and WRs early and grab Kitna, Leinart, Romo etc. a little later.

I do this in every draft.