This is a big deal. The timing couldn't be worse. The biggest microscope in sports is the weeks leading up to the superbowl, and for this to break now means it can't be swept under the rug. The NFL is interested in international expansion, they have to be very careful with the optics.
Here's how this will play out with the international press:
- one of the teams in the Superbowl got caught cheating.
- that team has gotten caught cheating before.
- If they cheat with equipment rules, and spying on other teams, how else have they been cheating?
- What kind of competitive advantage have they gained by doing all of this?
- Does the NFL have any integrity at all?
I don't think they can sweep this under the rug. Belichick is now a repeat offender, I don't think Godell will have a choice but to throw the book at him.
This incident has brought the integrity of the entire league under question at a time when the whole world will be watching.
Here are the facts as I see them:
- 11 of 12 balls being under inflated rules out a leak or faulty equipment.
- I just ran some numbers w/ ideal gas law. to get from 12.5 PSI to 10.5 PSI takes a drop in temperature of 87 degrees F, so we rule out natural depressurization.
- Underinflated balls can gain a team a non-trivial competitive advantage - goes to motive.
- There are rules, spelled out in black and white, as to regulation. this isn't a wishy-washy spirit of the law here. The Patriots were caught red handed using illegal equipment.
- The Patriots are repeat offenders.
- The last coach involved with shenanigans was suspended for a year.
The above, coupled with the intense media focus during superbowl week, will leave Godell no choice but to suspend Belichick and possibly his staff for at least a year, plus dock draft picks. High ones.
I'm not a Patriot hater, even if I strongly dislike some of their fans. I respect the hell out of Bill Belichick and that whole organization. However, I believe that Belichick has fostered an organizational culture that encourages pushing the boundaries of legality.