Greg Jennings Game Log (1 Viewer)

[treat88]

You can name 23 more TALENTED WRs than Jennings sure. So can I.I can not name more than 10 better though.In fantasy???? Entire different conversation. #1 target for a top 3 QB in a passing offense, and his "down" year in 2009 was still pretty darn good.

what do you make of last year's numbers when Finley started the game(first post)??

I think this is a valid point and certainly one that Jennings prospective owners need to consider.IMO at least, the games after Finley went down are as valid as the ones that Finley was involved in. Jennings performed awfully well in his absence and I'm not at all convinced that Rodgers/McCarthy missed out on that fact and will simply revert to early 2010 baseline.Even if the powers that be do revert, an aging Driver, a potentially leaving Jones, and a rookie in Cobb give at least a reasonable likelihood that any targets Finley may steal from Jennings will be gained from other areas.I get why LHUCKS likes to down Jennings and that's cool. To each their own. To me, Jennings is Reggie Wayne redux. Consistent top 10 FF WR for the next 5 years.

 

[LHUCKS]

LHUCKSPlease post your projections for Greg Jennings for the 2011 season.

I haven't completed my Packers analysis yet. I can tell you he wont be ranked top 5...where a lot of the "experts" have him.

 

[King of the Jungle]

LHUCKSPlease post your projections for Greg Jennings for the 2011 season.

I haven't completed my Packers analysis yet. I can tell you he wont be ranked top 5...where a lot of the "experts" have him.

Please do not forget to post your Greg Jennings projections prior to the season beginning.

 

[LHUCKS]

IMO at least, the games after Finley went down are as valid as the ones that Finley was involved in.

I don't get this. Jermichael's presence clearly had an impact on Jennings' numbers.The data couldn't be any more clear.

 

[LHUCKS]

I get why LHUCKS likes to down Jennings and that's cool.

I don't really "like to down him"...I just don't think he's as good as most people think. He's a product of a great system. You can plug a lot of WRs into his position and get the same numbers IMHO.

 

[treat88]

IMO at least, the games after Finley went down are as valid as the ones that Finley was involved in.

I don't get this. Jermichael clearly had an impact on Jennings' numbers.

There was some context provided there in my initial post.But, to clarify...sure Finley did. I don't think that can be argued.But when he did go down, Jennings stepped up, demanded the ball, and produced at a very high level.I don't think that gets lost on either Rodgers or McCarthy. I think the early 2010 pecking order/playbook likely changes or at least is balanced due to Jennings play after Finley went down.

 

[cobalt_27]

Hucks, Jennings is so good he'd make a pro bowler out of matt leinart.

You have significant evaluative deficiencies, so I'm pleased to enlighten you.

 

[LHUCKS]

I think the early 2010 pecking order/playbook likely changes or at least is balanced due to Jennings play after Finley went down.

Okay, I think I can buy that First solid argument made in 4 pages. Well done.

 

[sho nuff]

I think the early 2010 pecking order/playbook likely changes or at least is balanced due to Jennings play after Finley went down.

Okay, I think I can buy that First solid argument made in 4 pages. Well done.

Admitting your own argument was not solid is a good first step.

 

[LHUCKS]

I think the early 2010 pecking order/playbook likely changes or at least is balanced due to Jennings play after Finley went down.

Okay, I think I can buy that First solid argument made in 4 pages. Well done.

Admitting your own argument was not solid is a good first step.

clearly I was speaking to those arguments FOR Jennings.Yet another valuable post by Sho Nuff...it's incredible you're allowed to post in this thread still.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I get why LHUCKS likes to down Jennings and that's cool.

I don't really "like to down him"...I just don't think he's as good as most people think. He's a product of a great system. You can plug a lot of WRs into his position and get the same numbers IMHO.

And you also believe he isn't a good route runner, and doesn't have good hands. Correct?

 

[LHUCKS]

I get why LHUCKS likes to down Jennings and that's cool.

I don't really "like to down him"...I just don't think he's as good as most people think. He's a product of a great system. You can plug a lot of WRs into his position and get the same numbers IMHO.

And you also believe he isn't a good route runner, and doesn't have good hands. Correct?

I never made either of those statements. Talent wise I'd probably rank him in the top 50 WRs, that's not exactly terrible.

 

[sho nuff]

I get why LHUCKS likes to down Jennings and that's cool.

I don't really "like to down him"...I just don't think he's as good as most people think. He's a product of a great system. You can plug a lot of WRs into his position and get the same numbers IMHO.

And you also believe he isn't a good route runner, and doesn't have good hands. Correct?

I never made either of those statements. Talent wise I'd probably rank him in the top 50 WRs, that's not exactly terrible.

Yes...you claimed he was mediocre all around.

At the risk of asking a question you have already answered, what is it about Jennings game that you dislike so strongly? Route running, hands, ball tracking....?

Everything, he is mediocre all around. But because he's the #1 WR on arguably the best passing offense with arguably the best QB, his stats get inflated and then all of a sudden he's a "great WR" according to fantasy geeks.I'm not emotionally invested at all, I just like to point on glaring discrepancies when the "sharks" fail to recognize them.

Top 50 only?Hilarious.Seems nearly every expert and players in the league disagree with that statement as well.The guy is a top 10 WR in this league...and continues to show it each and every year.But yeah...must all be the system.

 

[ookook]

Please tell us which Packers you think are under-rated, as I hold you just don't like our players much and down them routinely.

 

[LHUCKS]

Please tell us which Packers you think are under-rated, as I hold you just don't like our players much and down them routinely.

I like Finley, Rodgers, Cobb, there are a lot of great players on the Pack but Woodson is probably my favorite. I love great DBs.In terms of underrated in fantasy, I like Grant and Finley.

 

[sho nuff]

Finley underrated?

 

[LHUCKS]

Finley underrated?

Fantasy wise, yes. I have him ranked #2 only behind Gates...which would make him slightly underrated. But like most everybody else, I have not finished my projections.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Finley underrated?

Fantasy wise, yes. I have him ranked #2 only behind Gates...which would make him slightly underrated. But like most everybody else, I have not finished my projections.

On the edge of my seat waiting for your Jennings projections.Over/under on 27 catches 530 yds 3 tds ?

 

[smackdaddies]

Please tell us which Packers you think are under-rated, as I hold you just don't like our players much and down them routinely.

I like Finley, Rodgers, Cobb, there are a lot of great players on the Pack but Woodson is probably my favorite. I love great DBs.In terms of underrated in fantasy, I like Grant and Finley.

gag, I have to agree with the Huckster - i think Grant is very underrated also.

 

[Go deep]

Finley underrated?

Fantasy wise, yes. I have him ranked #2 only behind Gates...which would make him slightly underrated. But like most everybody else, I have not finished my projections.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

From "that other thread":

Greg Jennings - why is everybody so in love with this marginal talent? If he wasn't catching balls from the best QB in the game, would we still be overrating him? He had 6 games less than 55 yards last year...SIX. Further, check out his average when Finley was playing. Finley is a superior talent and Jennings will once again be overrated. Jennings owners got lucky last year when Finley went down...don't bank on it again. Jennings is a marginal talent on a good passing offense.

So a Top 12 WR in 3 of the last 4 seasons, including 2010, isn't worthy of a second round pick. Okay....I will play along. He's still the #1 target for one of the best - if not the best - passing offense in the NFL. He was the top target the past three seasons for the Packers - all seasons with J. Finley. As Finley matured in 2009, Finley passed Lee for the top TE status and he was slated for the #1 TE by a wide margin last year, but expecting his targets to come at the expense of Jennings doesn't sound right at all.

You say to check out his numbers when Finley was playing. Fine.

Finley played the first 4 games. Targets were:

Jennings - 26

Finley - 26

Driver - 26

Jones - 16

Nelson - 9

After that point, the next 12 games:

Jennings - 97

Finley - 0 (Quarless 32, Lee 10)

Driver - 60

Jones - 71

Nelson - 55

So Jennings averaged 6.5 targets and right at 25% of the targets for the Top 5 targets over the first four weeks. For the next 12, Jennings had 8 targets and 30% of the targets for the top four WRs and the TE position. Hardly a huge difference. If anything, Finley's targets went mostly to the other 3 WRs, especially Jones and Nelson, who had been representing about 25% of the action before Finley got hurt and then had 39% of the targets combined after he went down.

I'm just fine with selecting the top target and a consistent Top 12 WR at the back end of Round 2. I would have been fine selecting Finley there as well.

Keep in mind this is a 16-team draft and he's being selected in the WR6-10 range.

THIS

Someone let me know if and when LHUCKS decides to discuss my counterargument.

 

[BucFan40]

You started a thread about a guy saying he is way overrated because you have him at about 13 and his ADP is around 7?

This ^

You have Finley underrated when his ADP is TE3 (according to FFC) and Jennings is overrated at 4-8 because you have him at 13? I know it's a lockout, but still, we can come up with something better than this. You are truly the Roland Martin of this board.

 

[Go deep]

You have Finley underrated when his ADP is TE3 (according to FFC) and Jennings is overrated at 4-8 because you have him at 13? I know it's a lockout, but still, we can come up with something better than this. You are truly the Roland Martin of this board.

LHucks puts out some really bad stuf that borders on hilarious, but saying Finley is underrated takes the cake. He is ranked in the top 3 in everyones rankings, and here at FBG he is considered the best player in fantasy football history.

 

[LHUCKS]

You have Finley underrated when his ADP is TE3 (according to FFC) and Jennings is overrated at 4-8 because you have him at 13? I know it's a lockout, but still, we can come up with something better than this. You are truly the Roland Martin of this board.

LHucks puts out some really bad stuf that borders on hilarious, but saying Finley is underrated takes the cake. He is ranked in the top 3 in everyones rankings, and here at FBG he is considered the best player in fantasy football history.

I have Finly ranked #2...most rankings I have seen have him at 4 or 5.As a result, he's slightly underrated per my rankings...this isn't rocket science.Picking the #5 TE instead of the #2 TE may not seem like that big of a deal to you, but if you give up that same margin at every single position, that is how you build a losing FF team.

 

[LHUCKS]

From "that other thread":

Greg Jennings - why is everybody so in love with this marginal talent? If he wasn't catching balls from the best QB in the game, would we still be overrating him? He had 6 games less than 55 yards last year...SIX. Further, check out his average when Finley was playing. Finley is a superior talent and Jennings will once again be overrated. Jennings owners got lucky last year when Finley went down...don't bank on it again. Jennings is a marginal talent on a good passing offense.

So a Top 12 WR in 3 of the last 4 seasons, including 2010, isn't worthy of a second round pick. Okay....I will play along. He's still the #1 target for one of the best - if not the best - passing offense in the NFL. He was the top target the past three seasons for the Packers - all seasons with J. Finley. As Finley matured in 2009, Finley passed Lee for the top TE status and he was slated for the #1 TE by a wide margin last year, but expecting his targets to come at the expense of Jennings doesn't sound right at all.

You say to check out his numbers when Finley was playing. Fine.

Finley played the first 4 games. Targets were:

Jennings - 26

Finley - 26

Driver - 26

Jones - 16

Nelson - 9

After that point, the next 12 games:

Jennings - 97

Finley - 0 (Quarless 32, Lee 10)

Driver - 60

Jones - 71

Nelson - 55

So Jennings averaged 6.5 targets and right at 25% of the targets for the Top 5 targets over the first four weeks. For the next 12, Jennings had 8 targets and 30% of the targets for the top four WRs and the TE position. Hardly a huge difference. If anything, Finley's targets went mostly to the other 3 WRs, especially Jones and Nelson, who had been representing about 25% of the action before Finley got hurt and then had 39% of the targets combined after he went down.

I'm just fine with selecting the top target and a consistent Top 12 WR at the back end of Round 2. I would have been fine selecting Finley there as well.

Keep in mind this is a 16-team draft and he's being selected in the WR6-10 range.

THIS

Someone let me know if and when LHUCKS decides to discuss my counterargument.

A) 6.5 targets to a WR that is not a consistent redzone threat like other top WRs such as Fitz, Andre Johnson etc.

B) Jennings is still IMHO, a mediocre talent. The risk you run with WRs that put up numbers as a result of the system they are in is that they are easily replacable. As an example, can you think of a WR that the Texans can put into to Andre Johnson's role that can put up similar numbers? The answer is obviously no. On the other hand, the Packers have several WRs that can fill in for Jennings. The reason is of course, because he doesn't have irreplacable talent. That is a risk.

C) Nobody has yet to provide a reasonable explanation of why Jennings' numbers were absolutely terrible while Finley was healthy. Two games is a coincidence...five consecutive games of terrible numbers is not.

Jennings is overrated. I have him as WR#13 for ff purposes, so I obviously am not exepcting his numbers to fall off a cliff, but at his current ADP I wouldn't touch him. He's a losing fantasy team's play.

 

[Go deep]

From "that other thread":

Greg Jennings - why is everybody so in love with this marginal talent? If he wasn't catching balls from the best QB in the game, would we still be overrating him? He had 6 games less than 55 yards last year...SIX. Further, check out his average when Finley was playing. Finley is a superior talent and Jennings will once again be overrated. Jennings owners got lucky last year when Finley went down...don't bank on it again. Jennings is a marginal talent on a good passing offense.

So a Top 12 WR in 3 of the last 4 seasons, including 2010, isn't worthy of a second round pick. Okay....I will play along. He's still the #1 target for one of the best - if not the best - passing offense in the NFL. He was the top target the past three seasons for the Packers - all seasons with J. Finley. As Finley matured in 2009, Finley passed Lee for the top TE status and he was slated for the #1 TE by a wide margin last year, but expecting his targets to come at the expense of Jennings doesn't sound right at all.

You say to check out his numbers when Finley was playing. Fine.

Finley played the first 4 games. Targets were:

Jennings - 26

Finley - 26

Driver - 26

Jones - 16

Nelson - 9

After that point, the next 12 games:

Jennings - 97

Finley - 0 (Quarless 32, Lee 10)

Driver - 60

Jones - 71

Nelson - 55

So Jennings averaged 6.5 targets and right at 25% of the targets for the Top 5 targets over the first four weeks. For the next 12, Jennings had 8 targets and 30% of the targets for the top four WRs and the TE position. Hardly a huge difference. If anything, Finley's targets went mostly to the other 3 WRs, especially Jones and Nelson, who had been representing about 25% of the action before Finley got hurt and then had 39% of the targets combined after he went down.

I'm just fine with selecting the top target and a consistent Top 12 WR at the back end of Round 2. I would have been fine selecting Finley there as well.

Keep in mind this is a 16-team draft and he's being selected in the WR6-10 range.

THIS

Someone let me know if and when LHUCKS decides to discuss my counterargument.

A) 6.5 targets to a WR that is not a consistent redzone threat like other top WRs such as Fitz, Andre Johnson etc.

B) Jennings is still IMHO, a mediocre talent. The risk you run with WRs that put up numbers as a result of the system they are in is that they are easily replacable. As an example, can you think of a WR that the Texans can put into to Andre Johnson's role that can put up similar numbers? The answer is obviously no. On the other hand, the Packers have several WRs that can fill in for Jennings. The reason is of course, because he doesn't have irreplacable talent. That is a risk.

C) Nobody has yet to provide a reasonable explanation of why Jennings' numbers were absolutely terrible while Finley was healthy. Two games is a coincidence...five consecutive games of terrible numbers is not.

Jennings is overrated. I have him as WR#13 for ff purposes, so I obviously am not exepcting his numbers to fall off a cliff, but at his current ADP I wouldn't touch him. He's a losing fantasy team's play.

Finley didnt play in the 5th game outside of the first couple plays. I bet if Jennings had a big game you wouldnt have forgotten that. So now we are down to 4 games with "terrible numbers". Jennings caught 4 passes for 82 yards and a TD in the first game. Not only is that not terrible, but its very good. So now we are down to 3 games with "terrible numbers". He scores TD's in 2 of them, which makes his numbers in those games "not terrible", So what we have left is one game with "terrible numbers".Giving your opinion(bad or otherwise) is fine, but stating things as fact that are indeed not true is not cool.

 

[LHUCKS]

Finley didnt play in the 5th game outside of the first couple plays. I bet if Jennings had a big game you wouldnt have forgotten that. So now we are down to 4 games with "terrible numbers". Jennings caught 4 passes for 82 yards and a TD in the first game. Not only is that not terrible, but its very good. So now we are down to 3 games with "terrible numbers". He scores TD's in 2 of them, which makes his numbers in those games "not terrible", So what we have left is one game with "terrible numbers".

you're right, the first game was a good game...so it's really only four consecutive terrible games. As for the fifth game, I include it because Finley started the game which influenced the gameplan....which I've already explained earlier in this thread. So if you want to see one bad game that's fine...I see four. We can agree to disagree.As for the other garbage you posted about "mistating facts", leave it out of the thread...we're talking about Greg Jennings here. Making statements like that only distract from the real discussion. Thanks.

 

[Eminence]

What scares me is that he had 12 TDS this year but 4 TDS the year before. I'm not sure what the ENDZONE splits are but logic dictates Finley would steal a healthy amount of targets. You'd also have to think he'll get less TDS with a healthy Ryan Grant.

Regardless he's a consistent 1,200 Yard receiver; I wouldn't count on him for TDS though.

 

[smackdaddies]

What scares me is that he had 12 TDS this year but 4 TDS the year before. I'm not sure what the ENDZONE splits are but logic dictates Finley would steal a healthy amount of targets. You'd also have to think he'll get less TDS with a healthy Ryan Grant.Regardless he's a consistent 1,200 Yard receiver; I wouldn't count on him for TDS though.

winner winner, chicken dinnerYou simply can't count on any packer being a scoring machine, other than Rodgers. Rodgers is the hub everything revolves around. Everyone else is just a spoke.Having said that, in a ppr and or yardage league, Jennings will be money, again. TD's heavy league - you pays your money and youse takes your chances. I wouldn't take Jennings today any higher than 8th in a TD only league. But then again, I haven't played in that type of league for over 10 years, and I suspect most people here have not either, so its largely irrelevent.

 

[sho nuff]

You have Finley underrated when his ADP is TE3 (according to FFC) and Jennings is overrated at 4-8 because you have him at 13? I know it's a lockout, but still, we can come up with something better than this. You are truly the Roland Martin of this board.

LHucks puts out some really bad stuf that borders on hilarious, but saying Finley is underrated takes the cake. He is ranked in the top 3 in everyones rankings, and here at FBG he is considered the best player in fantasy football history.

I have Finly ranked #2...most rankings I have seen have him at 4 or 5.As a result, he's slightly underrated per my rankings...this isn't rocket science.Picking the #5 TE instead of the #2 TE may not seem like that big of a deal to you, but if you give up that same margin at every single position, that is how you build a losing FF team.

When a guy is in pretty close to even your rankings...that is not underrating the guy.Im sure the one thing you know about is how to build a losing FF team.By overranking some guys...and being completely dismissive to a guy like Jennings who will continue to put up solid #s.

 

[sho nuff]

A) 6.5 targets to a WR that is not a consistent redzone threat like other top WRs such as Fitz, Andre Johnson etc.B) Jennings is still IMHO, a mediocre talent. The risk you run with WRs that put up numbers as a result of the system they are in is that they are easily replacable. As an example, can you think of a WR that the Texans can put into to Andre Johnson's role that can put up similar numbers? The answer is obviously no. On the other hand, the Packers have several WRs that can fill in for Jennings. The reason is of course, because he doesn't have irreplacable talent. That is a risk.C) Nobody has yet to provide a reasonable explanation of why Jennings' numbers were absolutely terrible while Finley was healthy. Two games is a coincidence...five consecutive games of terrible numbers is not.Jennings is overrated. I have him as WR#13 for ff purposes, so I obviously am not exepcting his numbers to fall off a cliff, but at his current ADP I wouldn't touch him. He's a losing fantasy team's play.

A. Maybe.B. Well, this is where you are complete showing you don't know a thing about Greg Jennings. I think Greg Jennings could put up similar numbers in Houston. The guy is better than you think...and most everyone on this planet realizes it...the Steelers realized it and they still could not shut him down.C. First off they were not completely terrible. 2nd, plenty of people have told you that the team even admitted they were almost force feeding Finley in those weeks (and you only want to look at the first 5 games of this year and ignore the prior year which is funny). In addition, you continue to ignore the success they had after Finley was gone and you assume they will go back to force feeding Finley again even after seeing what happens when they spread it a bit more and get a guy like Jennings the ball.But you called him the most overrated NFL and FF WR and you only drop him down about 5 spots from many of his rankings? Its hilarious. Its why your argument holds absolutely no water.

 

[sho nuff]

What scares me is that he had 12 TDS this year but 4 TDS the year before. I'm not sure what the ENDZONE splits are but logic dictates Finley would steal a healthy amount of targets. You'd also have to think he'll get less TDS with a healthy Ryan Grant.Regardless he's a consistent 1,200 Yard receiver; I wouldn't count on him for TDS though.

winner winner, chicken dinnerYou simply can't count on any packer being a scoring machine, other than Rodgers. Rodgers is the hub everything revolves around. Everyone else is just a spoke.Having said that, in a ppr and or yardage league, Jennings will be money, again. TD's heavy league - you pays your money and youse takes your chances. I wouldn't take Jennings today any higher than 8th in a TD only league. But then again, I haven't played in that type of league for over 10 years, and I suspect most people here have not either, so its largely irrelevent.

I disagree that he is a great play in ppr and poor in TDs.He is more valuable in a TD heavy league.He is the #1 WR on a pass heavy team.

 

[bengalbuck]

I like Jennings a lot. He has scored 12, 9, 4 and 12 TDs the last 4 years. That is an average of over 9 TDs per season.

For comparison's sake, Andre Johnson has had 8, 8, 9 and 8 TDs. That is an average of 1 less TD per year and Jennings had more TDs in 3 of the 4 years.

Jennings' TD prowess is one of his best fantasy attributes in my opinion. The only negative is that he's more of a deep threat than a possession guy, so he's never going to get you 100+ catches like Andre Johnson and some of the other top guys will. Even despite his solid but unspectacular # of catches, he was the #5 WR in my PPR league last year.

I see Jennings as a guy who is pretty likely to end up with 80 catches, 1250 yards and 8-10 TDs next year and going forward.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I get why LHUCKS likes to down Jennings and that's cool.

I don't really "like to down him"...I just don't think he's as good as most people think. He's a product of a great system. You can plug a lot of WRs into his position and get the same numbers IMHO.

And you also believe he isn't a good route runner, and doesn't have good hands. Correct?

I never made either of those statements. Talent wise I'd probably rank him in the top 50 WRs, that's not exactly terrible.

Here is the exchange I was referencing:

At the risk of asking a question you have already answered, what is it about Jennings game that you dislike so strongly? Route running, hands, ball tracking....?

Everything, he is mediocre all around. But because he's the #1 WR on arguably the best passing offense with arguably the best QB, his stats get inflated and then all of a sudden he's a "great WR" according to fantasy geeks.I'm not emotionally invested at all, I just like to point on glaring discrepancies when the "sharks" fail to recognize them.

You very clearly implied that Jennings is mediocre in the following areas (a minimum): a) route running, b) hands, c) ball tracking.I'm not putting words in your mouth, it is clearly stated above for all to see. So just to make it crystal clear for all of us, how do you break down Jennings in those categories (route running, hands, ability to track the ball) along with any others you feel deserve mention (e.g., speed, run after catch, ability to get separation)?

Would you consider him exceptional, good, average, mediocre in those areas, vs the average starting WR in the NFL?

 

[sho nuff]

APK...Ive pointed that very post out and he ignored it.

I think most at this point agree that Jennings is not overrated as and NFL receiver...and is rated pretty close to accurately in FF.

 

[cr8f]

Geez. I can see downgrading him because he competes with so much talent on the team, but route running and hands?

He should be used more this year because they want to protect Finley, but Cobb throws a wrench into targets. Still he has to be a top 10 WR. NFL Network has 14 receivers ahead of him(#15) in their top 100 and that's just crazy.

 

[smackdaddies]

TD's, WR

Jennings has been 2nd, 7th, 20th and 4th in the past 4 years scoring td only.

Last year he had no JFin and no Grant for most of the year to compete with for scoring. I think projecting him about 8th in a TD only league with both of them back is reasonable. Add in Cobb and Green soaking up some and perhaps Nelson breaking out. 8th is a reasonable projection.

 

[LHUCKS]

NFL Network has 14 receivers ahead of him(#15) in their top 100 and that's just crazy.

Nice to see the NFL Network get something right.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

APK...Ive pointed that very post out and he ignored it.I think most at this point agree that Jennings is not overrated as and NFL receiver...and is rated pretty close to accurately in FF.

Hucks knows exactly what he wrote and meant -- and everybody else knows it too, particularly since I posted it in plain English -- but he won't answer my question because it will make it even MORE obvious how uniformed his view is on Greg Jennings.

 

[mjr]

I do think there is a trend of Finley's presence on the field hurting Jenning's stats (although there are a few exceptions in '09 and all of Finley's rookie season). The problem is... Finley actually has to be on the field. With 13 games missed over two seasons (more if you count the post-season), all you really have is a TE who has spent half of his last 2 years on the bench. Meanwhile, Jennings hasn't missed a game in years.

Can Finley play a full season without getting hurt? Will he even start this coming season at 100%? Another possibility is that Finley puts up good numbers because he over-exerts himself, which leads to injury, which could mean that his only chance at playing a full season means pulling back a bit and consequently taking a hit in production.

Personally, I'd rather take my chances with a WR who ranked top 5 overall at the position in my league during 2 of the 3 years Finley has been there to compete for catches. That being said, if Finley does manage to stay healthy for the full 2011 season, I think Rodgers can most likely end up being the only top 10 guy on that team. He spread the ball around so much in '09 that none of the recievers managed to produce top 10 numbers (Kind of like Brady and the recievers in NE pre-Randy Moss).

 

[Alex P Keaton]

NFL Network has 14 receivers ahead of him(#15) in their top 100 and that's just crazy.

Nice to see the NFL Network get something right.

If NFL Network - which probably reflects similar opinions as many people - "got it right", then by definition doesn't that mean Jennings is rated exactly where he should be? Making your view that he is overrated moot?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

From "that other thread":

Greg Jennings - why is everybody so in love with this marginal talent? If he wasn't catching balls from the best QB in the game, would we still be overrating him? He had 6 games less than 55 yards last year...SIX. Further, check out his average when Finley was playing. Finley is a superior talent and Jennings will once again be overrated. Jennings owners got lucky last year when Finley went down...don't bank on it again. Jennings is a marginal talent on a good passing offense.

So a Top 12 WR in 3 of the last 4 seasons, including 2010, isn't worthy of a second round pick. Okay....I will play along. He's still the #1 target for one of the best - if not the best - passing offense in the NFL. He was the top target the past three seasons for the Packers - all seasons with J. Finley. As Finley matured in 2009, Finley passed Lee for the top TE status and he was slated for the #1 TE by a wide margin last year, but expecting his targets to come at the expense of Jennings doesn't sound right at all.

You say to check out his numbers when Finley was playing. Fine.

Finley played the first 4 games. Targets were:

Jennings - 26

Finley - 26

Driver - 26

Jones - 16

Nelson - 9

After that point, the next 12 games:

Jennings - 97

Finley - 0 (Quarless 32, Lee 10)

Driver - 60

Jones - 71

Nelson - 55

So Jennings averaged 6.5 targets and right at 25% of the targets for the Top 5 targets over the first four weeks. For the next 12, Jennings had 8 targets and 30% of the targets for the top four WRs and the TE position. Hardly a huge difference. If anything, Finley's targets went mostly to the other 3 WRs, especially Jones and Nelson, who had been representing about 25% of the action before Finley got hurt and then had 39% of the targets combined after he went down.

I'm just fine with selecting the top target and a consistent Top 12 WR at the back end of Round 2. I would have been fine selecting Finley there as well.

Keep in mind this is a 16-team draft and he's being selected in the WR6-10 range.

THIS

Someone let me know if and when LHUCKS decides to discuss my counterargument.

A) 6.5 targets to a WR that is not a consistent redzone threat like other top WRs such as Fitz, Andre Johnson etc.

B) Jennings is still IMHO, a mediocre talent. The risk you run with WRs that put up numbers as a result of the system they are in is that they are easily replacable. As an example, can you think of a WR that the Texans can put into to Andre Johnson's role that can put up similar numbers? The answer is obviously no. On the other hand, the Packers have several WRs that can fill in for Jennings. The reason is of course, because he doesn't have irreplacable talent. That is a risk.

C) Nobody has yet to provide a reasonable explanation of why Jennings' numbers were absolutely terrible while Finley was healthy. Two games is a coincidence...five consecutive games of terrible numbers is not.

Jennings is overrated. I have him as WR#13 for ff purposes, so I obviously am not exepcting his numbers to fall off a cliff, but at his current ADP I wouldn't touch him. He's a losing fantasy team's play.

A - Using the names you picked, not I:2010 targets in the red zone:

Jennings - 19 targets, 13 catches, 7 TDs

Fitzgerald - 26 targets, 11 catches, 5 TDs

A Johnson - 13 targets, 8 catches, 5 TDs

So I'll give you that Fitz had a bad QB in 2010 - but Jennings still had >50% TDs on his receptions, as did AJ. AJ had 136 targets but only 13 in the Red Zone, while Jennings had 123 targets and 19 in the Red Zone. So you claim Jennings "is not a consistent redzone threat like other top WRs such as Fitz, Andre Johnson etc." yet he had over 15% of his targets in the Red Zone while AJ had under 10%. Fitz, for comparison, had a ton of targets last year in all areas of the field with 172 - which just so happens to put his Red Zone targets at 15%, the same as Jennings.

So based on the above, your "A" statement is incorrect. He sees plenty of targets in the Red Zone, typical of a stud WR of about 15%. Oddly enough, AJ falls short of that mark.

"Point B" is based entirely on your opinion. You state that Jennings is replaceable, yet the Packers did not draft or sign anyone in an effort to replace Jennings. Cobb is a slot WR and likely will replace Driver in 2012. James Jones may be left to sign elsewhere. Nelson will be the WR2 and is not replacing Jennings. Between all of those WRs, the one not in flux is Jennings, and there are options to replace him if he was mediocre. They could plan on Jones/Nelson/Cobb as the WRs of the future, yet they aren't - and it isn't like GB doesn't know how to draft replacement players for the future. They're building around Rodgers and Jennings, not looking to replace their WR1.

"Point C" has been refuted already. No need to go to that well again.

Jennings may not have ludicrous ceiling for FF purposes, but he has a rather high floor and is a solid later WR1 to select in a given draft.

 

[JamesTheScot]

Finley underrated?

Fantasy wise, yes. I have him ranked #2 only behind Gates...which would make him slightly underrated. But like most everybody else, I have not finished my projections.

I'm curious how someone can knowingly underrate someone in their own rankings. It's one thing to say other people are underrating someone. And it's another to recognize that you are ranking a player much lower than the general consensus. But it's a whole other thing altogether to rank him somewhere and believe that you actually are underrating him.

 

[sho nuff]

A - Using the names you picked, not I:2010 targets in the red zone:Jennings - 19 targets, 13 catches, 7 TDsFitzgerald - 26 targets, 11 catches, 5 TDsA Johnson - 13 targets, 8 catches, 5 TDsSo I'll give you that Fitz had a bad QB in 2010 - but Jennings still had >50% TDs on his receptions, as did AJ. AJ had 136 targets but only 13 in the Red Zone, while Jennings had 123 targets and 19 in the Red Zone. So you claim Jennings "is not a consistent redzone threat like other top WRs such as Fitz, Andre Johnson etc." yet he had over 15% of his targets in the Red Zone while AJ had under 10%. Fitz, for comparison, had a ton of targets last year in all areas of the field with 172 - which just so happens to put his Red Zone targets at 15%, the same as Jennings. So based on the above, your "A" statement is incorrect. He sees plenty of targets in the Red Zone, typical of a stud WR of about 15%. Oddly enough, AJ falls short of that mark."Point B" is based entirely on your opinion. You state that Jennings is replaceable, yet the Packers did not draft or sign anyone in an effort to replace Jennings. Cobb is a slot WR and likely will replace Driver in 2012. James Jones may be left to sign elsewhere. Nelson will be the WR2 and is not replacing Jennings. Between all of those WRs, the one not in flux is Jennings, and there are options to replace him if he was mediocre. They could plan on Jones/Nelson/Cobb as the WRs of the future, yet they aren't - and it isn't like GB doesn't know how to draft replacement players for the future. They're building around Rodgers and Jennings, not looking to replace their WR1."Point C" has been refuted already. No need to go to that well again.Jennings may not have ludicrous ceiling for FF purposes, but he has a rather high floor and is a solid later WR1 to select in a given draft.

[cousin eddie]I haven’t seen a beating like that since someone stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.[/cousin eddie]

 

[Eminence]

2010 targets in the red zone:Jennings - 19 targets, 13 catches, 7 TDsFitzgerald - 26 targets, 11 catches, 5 TDsA Johnson - 13 targets, 8 catches, 5 TDs

This is the red flag for me. 7 of 12 Jennings TDs were in the RZ. You'd have to think that with a healthy Grant and Finley that those numbers drop dramatically.2009: 69 / 1,113 / 4TDThat simply does not look like a stat line a WR1 would even be possible of putting up with an elite QB at the helm.I'm not questioning whether or not he'll get his 1,100 yards and his 70 / 80 yard TD receptions. I simply think that the numbers he's been putting up 1,200 yards / 12 TD are his ceiling; product of the situation. With a healthy Finley and Grant; no way he sniffs 12 TD again.Sell-High, IMO.

 

[LHUCKS]

So based on the above, your "A" statement is incorrect. He sees plenty of targets in the Red Zone, typical of a stud WR of about 15%. Oddly enough, AJ falls short of that mark.

Jeff, I appreciate the work you put in on the redzone targets here, but I was speaking to his Red Zone abilities, not to his actul redzone targets. He's not a guy that you have run fade routes like a Plax/Andre/Moss/T.O./Bryant/Megatron etc. etc. because of his imposing size. It is interesting that he does get that many redzone targets though, I would have expected less.

 

[sho nuff]

2010 targets in the red zone:Jennings - 19 targets, 13 catches, 7 TDsFitzgerald - 26 targets, 11 catches, 5 TDsA Johnson - 13 targets, 8 catches, 5 TDs

This is the red flag for me. 7 of 12 Jennings TDs were in the RZ. You'd have to think that with a healthy Grant and Finley that those numbers drop dramatically.2009: 69 / 1,113 / 4TDThat simply does not look like a stat line a WR1 would even be possible of putting up with an elite QB at the helm.I'm not questioning whether or not he'll get his 1,100 yards and his 70 / 80 yard TD receptions. I simply think that the numbers he's been putting up 1,200 yards / 12 TD are his ceiling; product of the situation. With a healthy Finley and Grant; no way he sniffs 12 TD again.Sell-High, IMO.

I don't think Grant eats into anything.Look at his career numbers with Grant healthy.They are a pass first team in the redzone and even at the goalline.

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm not questioning whether or not he'll get his 1,100 yards and his 70 / 80 yard TD receptions. I simply think that the numbers he's been putting up 1,200 yards / 12 TD are his ceiling; product of the situation. With a healthy Finley and Grant; no way he sniffs 12 TD again.Sell-High, IMO.

 

[sho nuff]

So based on the above, your "A" statement is incorrect. He sees plenty of targets in the Red Zone, typical of a stud WR of about 15%. Oddly enough, AJ falls short of that mark.

Jeff, I appreciate the work you put in on the redzone targets here, but I was speaking to his Red Zone abilities, not to his actul redzone targets. He's not a guy that you have run fade routes like a Plax/Andre/Moss/T.O./Bryant/Megatron etc. etc. because of his imposing size. It is interesting that he does get that many redzone targets though, I would have expected less.

No...instead he undresses corners and runs a slant...or gets people leaning and runs a great corner route.He is not simply a fade guy (but has done that in the past too).He has the moves and has shown them. Yet you continue to deny it.

 

[LHUCKS]

Jennings may not have ludicrous ceiling for FF purposes, but he has a rather high floor and is a solid later WR1 to select in a given draft.

Part of our difference of opinion here may be drafting style. In most drafts I usually target upside/high ceiling players.I do agree that Jennings is a relatively safe play to get 1100 yards which is why I have him ranked 13th.