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Guys you're worried you're too high on (1 Viewer)

Not sure it makes a huge difference, but the Bucs aren't going sneak up on anyone this year. 


It's not like every D coordinator didn't know Arians offense...he's not new to the league...far from it.  They have more tape on his offenses than almost every other team.

So no, defenses aren't catching up to anything.

 
Jerry Jeudy,

No matter if I draft high or low in the first round when I get to the point of WR 25-30 his name pops out to me so I keep grabbing him.  Stafford's another one I have a bunch of shares in.  

 
Haha...I'm sure that was a mistake by a ref, it couldn't have been Brady's fault.
Reminds me of the old joke about Ted Williams taking a ball on the outside corner. Catcher starts jawing at the ump, who responds, "Son, when a pitch is over the plate, Mr. Williams will kindly let you know by depositing it in the right-field seats."

 
I own Shenault and Higgins in several leagues. They're basically going to make or break my overrall year. Both are on mediocre teams and have competition for catches. 

 
Reminds me of the old joke about Ted Williams taking a ball on the outside corner. Catcher starts jawing at the ump, who responds, "Son, when a pitch is over the plate, Mr. Williams will kindly let you know by depositing it in the right-field seats."
That is perfect. haha

 
Jerry Jeudy,

No matter if I draft high or low in the first round when I get to the point of WR 25-30 his name pops out to me so I keep grabbing him.  Stafford's another one I have a bunch of shares in.  
Someone just dropped Stafford in my 10 team PPR for Wentz. Staff has tons of tools and a great Defense. I may snap him up and let Fields hang on the FA list---I probably shouldn't have him rostered anyway.

 
Someone just dropped Stafford in my 10 team PPR for Wentz. Staff has tons of tools and a great Defense. I may snap him up and let Fields hang on the FA list---I probably shouldn't have him rostered anyway.
What you should be doing is figuring out the best way to fleece him in a trade. Dude like that clearly has some blind spots. 

ETA: And yes, pick up Stafford over Fields. You'll likely know in a week or two if he's going to blow up. If he doesn't, you can either drop him or hold on as a backup. Odds are pretty high he finishes the year with more points than Fields.

 
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Revisiting this thread at the end of the season is fascinating. All in all, I'd say a lot of the analysis was pretty good, although it turned out that when it came to the guy who inspired the thread, I wasn't too high on him after all: Jacobs finished as the RB13 in PPR, which is the definition of a high-end RB2.

Still, this was the one thing that made me laugh out loud:

I'm also pretty high on Godwin. I think there's a decent shot if AB keeps his head on for 16 games he finishes as their top fantasy wideout. I think Evans will continue to be TD dependent
What's so hilarious is that AB made it to halftime of the team's 16th game before, well, losing his head (along with his shirt).

 
I own Shenault and Higgins in several leagues. They're basically going to make or break my overrall year. Both are on mediocre teams and have competition for catches. 
I wouldn't call Cinci OR Jacksonville "mediocre"

 
Looking back I was way too high on Jeudy.  Yeah I knew Denver's passing situation wasn't ideal but felt Jeudy's talent would overcome that.  Getting injured didn't help but even when he did play...meh. 

 
Something else I was thinking about today. Less specific guys I may be too high on and more offenses where I may be too readily assuming all the weapons will produce. SF is the classic example: Kittle is a top TE, the two RBs and WRs are both going high, and everyone is taking late-round fliers on Lance. They all feel relatively safe when you draft them, but the likelihood is that a number of them won't produce anywhere near their ADP. No offense can sustain that many weapons, especially not with a rookie QB.

Other examples where I"m worried: Pittsburgh, Cinci, Carolina. There's not necessarily one guy I can point to and say, "He might be overvalued." But I know a good number of them probably are.
This was a good instinct on my part, but of course the hard part in these situations isn't knowing that some guys will underperform their ADP but in picking the right guys.

I basically went all-in on SF across my various rosters. Deebo was obviously a huge value, Mitchell was a great pickup, and Kittle was up-and-down but ultimately probably not worth his 3rd-round ADP. Aiyuk had his moments, though I think I had pretty much dropped him everywhere by the time they happened. The rest of the RBs and Lance were busts.

I was not really in on Cinci anywhere. Chase and Mixon were the values, Burrow and Higgins were up and down (though obviously if you started Burrow the last two weeks of the playoffs you're pretty happy) and Boyd was mostly a bust

Carolina ended up being a waste across the board. Once CMC got injured and the QB situation deteriorated, it was hard to find any value. Moore started the season looking like he would be a WR1 but ultimately ended up as a marginal starter at best. Anderson was a total bust

Ironically enough, Pittsburgh had a terrible offense but probably ended up producing the most fantasy value. I would say Harris and Diontae performed at or above ADP, and 'Muth ended up being a great FA pickup. JuJu got injured but I doubt people had invested all that much in him. Claypool was the only big disappointment. (Ben too, I suppose, but was anyone really surprised by his continued deterioration?)

 

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