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this could be the dumbest post ever. his historical td to yardage ratio?Manning had a record breaking year because the other WRs stepped up in the TD department. So if Manning reverts back to non-record breaking form, then the loss in TDs should come from those WRs, not Harrison.I still disagree. If you look at his reasoning for Harrison's decline, you'll see none of them apply to your argument.Moss wasn't over 30.Sure it does. Moss, Harrison, and Owens are the preeminent receivers of this era. They've all had up years and down years, and people have been quick to write them off during their down years only to see them explode back on the scene. In Moss's case, a lot of people at that time said Moss's value was on the decline, and pointed to a downward trend in his numbers. They don't throw to him enough in the red zone. Teams were double and triple teaming him. The Randy Ratio was killing his value. Culpepper couldn't throw the deep ball.That doesn't have anything to do with what Bucky said.
Oops.
Something similar is happening this year with Harrison. Last year, we saw Wayne emerge as a viable threat opposite Harrison. Stokley, too. Other teams saw that, but still tried to contain Harrison. The decline in Harrison's numbers didn't just come from the other options being available, but from the fact that teams still largely tried to take away Harrison.
All I'm saying is, we've seen it happen before, that the very top players have a "disappointing" top 5 season, and people think they're declining. And once again, I think it's premature.
There weren't two other WRs getting a larger share of the balls.
His QB wasn't coming off a record breaking season in which all signs tend to point to a regression in numbers.
Apples and oranges.
So you are saying there is no correlation between recieving yards an TDs?
this could be the dumbest post ever. his historical td to yardage ratio?
harrison tds since 1999
12
14
15
11
10
15
better stay away
what iam saying is that there is a correlation between scoring tds and scoring tds.12So you are saying there is no correlation between recieving yards an TDs?
this could be the dumbest post ever. his historical td to yardage ratio?
harrison tds since 1999
12
14
15
11
10
15
better stay away
Manning had a record breaking year because the other WRs stepped up in the TD department. So if Manning reverts back to non-record breaking form, then the loss in TDs should come from those WRs, not Harrison.I still disagree. If you look at his reasoning for Harrison's decline, you'll see none of them apply to your argument.Moss wasn't over 30.Sure it does. Moss, Harrison, and Owens are the preeminent receivers of this era. They've all had up years and down years, and people have been quick to write them off during their down years only to see them explode back on the scene. In Moss's case, a lot of people at that time said Moss's value was on the decline, and pointed to a downward trend in his numbers. They don't throw to him enough in the red zone. Teams were double and triple teaming him. The Randy Ratio was killing his value. Culpepper couldn't throw the deep ball.
Oops.
Something similar is happening this year with Harrison. Last year, we saw Wayne emerge as a viable threat opposite Harrison. Stokley, too. Other teams saw that, but still tried to contain Harrison. The decline in Harrison's numbers didn't just come from the other options being available, but from the fact that teams still largely tried to take away Harrison.
All I'm saying is, we've seen it happen before, that the very top players have a "disappointing" top 5 season, and people think they're declining. And once again, I think it's premature.
There weren't two other WRs getting a larger share of the balls.
His QB wasn't coming off a record breaking season in which all signs tend to point to a regression in numbers.
Apples and oranges.
Don't let the door hit you on the ### on the way out.....you are right. i walked in on amateur night. i dont belong here
That's a decent argument. Although I don't see how that gets Harrison any more yards this year.And I don't see how anyone could assert that having 1113 yards and 15 TDs would be normal......even for Harrison.
No, Mannnig had a record breaking year because:1. Rules emphasis greatly helped passing stats especially for teams with timing based attacks.
Actually I don't have to hope that. I can pencil in Manning for 30 TDs and be just fine. My hope is that Wayne is actually the better player now and Harrison IS on the decline. I've suspected it all last year when I realized Harrison was only making FF points because he was getting a TD every game. Match him up against all the other 1100 yard WRs. He's in Jimmy Smith, Rod Smith, Derrick Mason, Eddie Kennison territory. What's similar about all those guys I just listed? They are all OLD! It was by the sheer offensive display that Manning put on last year that allowed him to finish 5th and not 15th-20th. Now since I'm not a believer in Manning even SNIFFING 49 TDs (I've got him at 35.5), correspondingly, I drop Harrison to about 15th in my rankings. Also, since I believe that Wayne's numbers are more resistant to variation, him going as the 9th overall WR seems fairly reasonable to me.
Exactly, Harrison's TDs are about to head south......I'm glad we could agree on that.
2 rounds later? good luck. anyways, you talk as if marvin and reggie are =s. harrison is clearly more proven, clearly the #1 wr for manning, and clearly has produced when manning didnt throw 49 tds.
Edge has had problems with that for years.
Guess which is more likely to stay consistent from year to year, yards or TDs? Right, its yards. His yards have been steadily declining for years. His yards are no longer in that range that a WR needs to be top 5. It's much more likely that his TDs drop to a normal rate than his yards shoot back up to 1400. Based on that, Harrison is likely to fall out of the top 5. Sure, its possible he can hang on Cris Carter style. Lots of TDs and just enough yards to keep him in the top 5 range. However, I'm not drafting Harrison in the 2nd round this year. I'm the same guy last year who was touting Harrison OVER Moss in the pre-season for the #1 WR. However, he's been on a decline for two solid years now. This could very well be the year his TDs come back to a normal rate. With all the other options on his team for TDs, I have to bet against him this year.
Thoughts I had on all this -Moss might lose some TDs to Porter, who has been an excellent red zone target the last two years. Holt (and Bruce) might share the load with the improving Kevin Curtis. Chad Johnson mikght have to share more and more with Housh and the possible emergence of Kelly Washington. So it's hard to say exactly who will finish top five. I agree, though, that Harrison could lose a bit due to age, a shared passing attack, and the difficulty of achieving last year's lofty numbers by Manning.
His TD numbers are the ONLY ones that were not in decline and that just so happend to be in the season that Manning broke the record for passing TDs..... coincidence maybe? I don't know, could be or could not be. It's comical though that knowing that fact and also knowing that not one, or 2, but all 3 of Wayne's major rec catagories has gone up in that same period of time... in direct relation to the decreases in Harrison.... people are trying to claim that Wayne, not Harrison was more a benifactor of the remarkable year Manning had. The numbers don't support it.
harrison's #s were so high, they could only go down. wayne's #s were so low, they could only go up. and harrison does have productive years when manning didnt throw 49. the same cannot be said for reggie.
Point taken.....although that might explain 5 of the extra 20 TDs Manning threw. What about the other 15?
Ok what should we use as a proxy for getting open? Will targets work?2002 205
Ok, this I can see as a reason of bumping him up a couple......but I'm not sure that drafting for trade bait is a great idea.
Nice to know Joe Horn might surpass the aging Marvin Harrison ...since Horn is eight months older!
Hmmm, I might need to rethink my Horn ranking. I'm just not sure I have faith in Stallworth to step up.
They go down to a certain level. However he's gone below that level.
Wrong.
Harrison was in his PRIME then. Wayne was still working his way up in the NFL. That's all I have to say about that. It irks me when people can't use capital letters to start their sentence. Too lazy to be able to think the arguments being presented through.
Horn has resisted showing his age production wise and there's no other viable targets on that Saints team. Unless a WR comes absolutely out of NOWHERE or he gets hurt without finishing 14 games, he's a very strong pick to make top 5.There's also a chance that Brooks might get replaced, so I guess that factors in. However Horn has showed no signs of slowing down. It would have to be an outside factor that affected him, and it's very hard to predict those.Nice to know Joe Horn might surpass the aging Marvin Harrison ...since Horn is eight months older!
Noone is saying that Harrison is a bad play this year or that he is a bad WR. As a matter of fact, the worse he has been called is a top 10 WR. One thing that has become evident in looking at the 3 year trend though is that Indy does realize they have more options in the passing game than just him... very good ones at that too. Wayne is stealing looks from Harrison, like it or not. I could care less about his age, even though history does not support him very will in that either. It's the fact that is ops are getting cut into with a great deal of consistency by another very capable WR who happens to be young, a 1st round pick, improving on a yearly basis, of Pro Bowl capsity and who did outperform Harrison in at least one way last year.Say all you want about how his ability has not changed, it's not the point which you continue to miss. Let me put it this way, what would your feelings on Harrison be if Indy suddenly signed Randy Moss? I know it's an extreme example, but with better and more capable WRs on the roster, would you expect his stats to go up or down, his ops to go up or down?harrison's #s were so high, they could only go down. wayne's #s were so low, they could only go up.
and harrison does have productive years when manning didnt throw 49. the same cannot be said for reggie.
marvin's TD #s didnt decline, so that means they will this year?
Good post. But why did you exclude last year, when his yards were down but his TDs were actually up? He got more TDs on fewer yards than I said, and you're saying that's not possible for him to do again this year.
You had to look up "irk" in the dictionary didn't you?
are you 12 or 13?
i didnt miss any points. i agree that when you add good options, his stats will go down, but his down stats are still great and still better than reggie wayne's. marvins stagnant opportunties are still better than waynes. reggie is still 2nd fiddle. the funadamental questions that will be answered, assuming manning doesnt repeat last years performance is, who benefitted? harrison or wayne?Noone is saying that Harrison is a bad play this year or that he is a bad WR. As a matter of fact, the worse he has been called is a top 10 WR. One thing that has become evident in looking at the 3 year trend though is that Indy does realize they have more options in the passing game than just him... very good ones at that too. Wayne is stealing looks from Harrison, like it or not. I could care less about his age, even though history does not support him very will in that either. It's the fact that is ops are getting cut into with a great deal of consistency by another very capable WR who happens to be young, a 1st round pick, improving on a yearly basis, of Pro Bowl capsity and who did outperform Harrison in at least one way last year.Say all you want about how his ability has not changed, it's not the point which you continue to miss. Let me put it this way, what would your feelings on Harrison be if Indy suddenly signed Randy Moss? I know it's an extreme example, but with better and more capable WRs on the roster, would you expect his stats to go up or down, his ops to go up or down?harrison's #s were so high, they could only go down. wayne's #s were so low, they could only go up.
and harrison does have productive years when manning didnt throw 49. the same cannot be said for reggie.
marvin's TD #s didnt decline, so that means they will this year?
Reggie Wayne has been creating more ops for himself because he has been improving every year and earining them. He is at a point in his career where improvements and maturation are common and to be expected. Harrison is past that point and it is a safe assumption that his skills and ability, maturation have becoeme stagnant. This creates a more favorable situation for Wayne at their current ADPs IMO.
I viewed it as an outlier......which may have been a mistake.Here is the data.
Very true. Personally, I would be shocked if Stokely was not in for a major reduction. I see along the lines of 5 TDs or half of last years total. Then you can look to the TEs who accounted for 11 TDs last year. I think that goes back to a more natural number of around 6. Harrison, I slate in the 10-13 range, so min of -2 there. With that alone your looking at around 12 TDs less and we havn't even touched Wayne yet, who is the most likely IMO to maintain his TD number of last year. With 12 TDs less, Manning is lookin at around 37 TDs. Which is still rather high, but still very close to the FGB projection.i didnt moss any points. i agree that when you add good options, his stats will go down, but his down stats are still great and still better than reggie wayne's. the funadamental questions that will be answered, assuming manning doesnt repeat last years performance is, who benefitted? harrison or wayne? and how high can reggie go, or how low can marvin go?Noone is saying that Harrison is a bad play this year or that he is a bad WR. As a matter of fact, the worse he has been called is a top 10 WR. One thing that has become evident in looking at the 3 year trend though is that Indy does realize they have more options in the passing game than just him... very good ones at that too. Wayne is stealing looks from Harrison, like it or not. I could care less about his age, even though history does not support him very will in that either. It's the fact that is ops are getting cut into with a great deal of consistency by another very capable WR who happens to be young, a 1st round pick, improving on a yearly basis, of Pro Bowl capsity and who did outperform Harrison in at least one way last year.Say all you want about how his ability has not changed, it's not the point which you continue to miss. Let me put it this way, what would your feelings on Harrison be if Indy suddenly signed Randy Moss? I know it's an extreme example, but with better and more capable WRs on the roster, would you expect his stats to go up or down, his ops to go up or down?harrison's #s were so high, they could only go down. wayne's #s were so low, they could only go up.
and harrison does have productive years when manning didnt throw 49. the same cannot be said for reggie.
marvin's TD #s didnt decline, so that means they will this year?
Reggie Wayne has been creating more ops for himself because he has been improving every year and earining them. He is at a point in his career where improvements and maturation are common and to be expected. Harrison is past that point and it is a safe assumption that his skills and ability, maturation have becoeme stagnant. This creates a more favorable situation for Wayne at their current ADPs IMO.
using history as an indicator, marvin is pretty much a lock for 10 tds, which is gonna make it difficult for him not to have a great year, not to outdo reggie and not to land top 5. he still gets a ton of catches, which easily vaults him over wayne in PPR leagues.
10 TDs and 1200 yards should put him outside the top 10 WRs.Even if you bump him up a few based on being a "safe" pick......it would be hard to justify him being better than the 7th WR taken.
The only one ignoring facts is you. You can't even do it with some semblance of proper punctuation.
i bet you stokley craps out and we are both wrong cuz reggie/marvin will both be greatVery true. Personally, I would be shocked if Stokely was not in for a major reduction. I see along the lines of 5 TDs or half of last years total. Then you can look to the TEs who accounted for 11 TDs last year. I think that goes back to a more natural number of around 6. Harrison, I slate in the 10-13 range, so min of -2 there. With that alone your looking at around 12 TDs less and we havn't even touched Wayne yet, who is the most likely IMO to maintain his TD number of last year. With 12 TDs less, Manning is lookin at around 37 TDs. Which is still rather high, but still very close to the FGB projection.i didnt moss any points. i agree that when you add good options, his stats will go down, but his down stats are still great and still better than reggie wayne's. the funadamental questions that will be answered, assuming manning doesnt repeat last years performance is, who benefitted? harrison or wayne? and how high can reggie go, or how low can marvin go?Noone is saying that Harrison is a bad play this year or that he is a bad WR. As a matter of fact, the worse he has been called is a top 10 WR. One thing that has become evident in looking at the 3 year trend though is that Indy does realize they have more options in the passing game than just him... very good ones at that too. Wayne is stealing looks from Harrison, like it or not. I could care less about his age, even though history does not support him very will in that either. It's the fact that is ops are getting cut into with a great deal of consistency by another very capable WR who happens to be young, a 1st round pick, improving on a yearly basis, of Pro Bowl capsity and who did outperform Harrison in at least one way last year.Say all you want about how his ability has not changed, it's not the point which you continue to miss. Let me put it this way, what would your feelings on Harrison be if Indy suddenly signed Randy Moss? I know it's an extreme example, but with better and more capable WRs on the roster, would you expect his stats to go up or down, his ops to go up or down?harrison's #s were so high, they could only go down. wayne's #s were so low, they could only go up.
and harrison does have productive years when manning didnt throw 49. the same cannot be said for reggie.
marvin's TD #s didnt decline, so that means they will this year?
Reggie Wayne has been creating more ops for himself because he has been improving every year and earining them. He is at a point in his career where improvements and maturation are common and to be expected. Harrison is past that point and it is a safe assumption that his skills and ability, maturation have becoeme stagnant. This creates a more favorable situation for Wayne at their current ADPs IMO.
using history as an indicator, marvin is pretty much a lock for 10 tds, which is gonna make it difficult for him not to have a great year, not to outdo reggie and not to land top 5. he still gets a ton of catches, which easily vaults him over wayne in PPR leagues.
Personally, I'd only use the last 3 years. What Harrison did in 1996 is largely irrelevant IMO.That puts him at 114.08 or 10.5 TDs if you expect 1200 yards. Outside the top 5 definitely and a borderline top 10 at that.
OK, now let's look at the projection (95/1250/12) I gave earlier. You said his career yards to TDs numbers didn't justify 12 TDs on 1250 yards: 1250 at 1996-2003 pace of 123 yards/TD = 10.2
but he scored 15 tds last year on 1100 yards. so lets just ignore that.you are using years in which he was the only show in town for catchea and yards, and using it aganist him.
Ok, the historical average for a #5 WR over the last 5 years is 194 points.1250/11 would put him at 191 points.....very close to the average for a #6 WR (190 points).
Four other WRs have had less than 1200 receiving yards and 15 TDs:Jerry Rice had 1078/22
