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Harrison will not be a top 5 WR this year (1 Viewer)

The larger trend is that the very top receivers have some variation, but generally stay at the top for a long time, and after a down year, it seems fairly likely they'll bounce back and have an up year the next.
But generally that variation is caused more by TD variation than yardage variation....Moss yardage

1998 1313

1999 1413

2000 1437

2001 1233

2002 1347

2003 1632

2004 767

Pick his "down" year based on this info......besides last year (when he was injured) really not a whole lot of relative deviation there. The down year came in 2002 when he had only 7 TDs.

Holt yardage

2000 1635

2001 1363

2002 1302

2003 1696

2004 1372

Holt's "down" year is a bit more recognizable, but the relative deviation in his yardage is still relatively low. The down year came in 2002 when he had only 4 TDs.

Harrison Yardage

1999 1663

2000 1413

2001 1524

2002 1722

2003 1272

2004 1113

you would have figured 2004 to be a disaster....but since he had 14 TDs he still managed to rank at #5. Based on yardage he was #17.

I'd say it's safe to pencil Harrison in for about 90 receptions, 1250 yards, and 12 TDs, which is top 5 material once again.  I also think it's more likely he would blow those numbers out of the water, than that he would drop off significantly from them, which is what makes him a better pick.
If he gets 1250 yards, based on his historical average of 1 TD / 123 yards (excluding 2004) I'll be surprised if he gets more than 10 TDs.
:lmao: this could be the dumbest post ever. his historical td to yardage ratio?

harrison tds since 1999

12

14

15

11

10

15

talk about starting with the conclusion and then doing fuzzy math to support it. hes had 1 year of less than 11 tds (same as more than 10). and you would be surprised if he had 10 or fewer

 
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who cares?

what really matters is the scoring difference between harrison and the baseline for wrs vs. the other players at other positions and their respective baselines.
:confused: I think you might have walked in on the wrong argument.
you are right. i walked in on amateur night. i dont belong here
 
Remember when Randy Moss was on the decline, too?

1999 80/1413/11

2000 77/1437/15

2001 82/1233/10

2002 106/1347/7

Then remember how he went and did this?

2003 111/1632/17

That was awesome.
:confused: That doesn't have anything to do with what Bucky said.
Sure it does. Moss, Harrison, and Owens are the preeminent receivers of this era. They've all had up years and down years, and people have been quick to write them off during their down years only to see them explode back on the scene. In Moss's case, a lot of people at that time said Moss's value was on the decline, and pointed to a downward trend in his numbers. They don't throw to him enough in the red zone. Teams were double and triple teaming him. The Randy Ratio was killing his value. Culpepper couldn't throw the deep ball.

Oops.

Something similar is happening this year with Harrison. Last year, we saw Wayne emerge as a viable threat opposite Harrison. Stokley, too. Other teams saw that, but still tried to contain Harrison. The decline in Harrison's numbers didn't just come from the other options being available, but from the fact that teams still largely tried to take away Harrison.

All I'm saying is, we've seen it happen before, that the very top players have a "disappointing" top 5 season, and people think they're declining. And once again, I think it's premature.
I still disagree. If you look at his reasoning for Harrison's decline, you'll see none of them apply to your argument.Moss wasn't over 30.

There weren't two other WRs getting a larger share of the balls.

His QB wasn't coming off a record breaking season in which all signs tend to point to a regression in numbers.

Apples and oranges.
Manning had a record breaking year because the other WRs stepped up in the TD department. So if Manning reverts back to non-record breaking form, then the loss in TDs should come from those WRs, not Harrison.
 
:lmao:

this could be the dumbest post ever. his historical td to yardage ratio?

harrison tds since 1999

12

14

15

11

10

15

better stay away
So you are saying there is no correlation between recieving yards an TDs? :hophead:

 
:lmao:

this could be the dumbest post ever. his historical td to yardage ratio?

harrison tds since 1999

12

14

15

11

10

15

better stay away
So you are saying there is no correlation between recieving yards an TDs? :hophead:
what iam saying is that there is a correlation between scoring tds and scoring tds.12

14

15

11

10

15

seems to me, marvin scores tds.

what you are doing is starting with the conclusion of "i would be surprised if he scored more than 10 tds" and doing fuzzy math to support it.

 
Remember when Randy Moss was on the decline, too?

1999 80/1413/11

2000 77/1437/15

2001 82/1233/10

2002 106/1347/7

Then remember how he went and did this?

2003 111/1632/17

That was awesome.
:confused: That doesn't have anything to do with what Bucky said.
Sure it does. Moss, Harrison, and Owens are the preeminent receivers of this era. They've all had up years and down years, and people have been quick to write them off during their down years only to see them explode back on the scene. In Moss's case, a lot of people at that time said Moss's value was on the decline, and pointed to a downward trend in his numbers. They don't throw to him enough in the red zone. Teams were double and triple teaming him. The Randy Ratio was killing his value. Culpepper couldn't throw the deep ball.

Oops.

Something similar is happening this year with Harrison. Last year, we saw Wayne emerge as a viable threat opposite Harrison. Stokley, too. Other teams saw that, but still tried to contain Harrison. The decline in Harrison's numbers didn't just come from the other options being available, but from the fact that teams still largely tried to take away Harrison.

All I'm saying is, we've seen it happen before, that the very top players have a "disappointing" top 5 season, and people think they're declining. And once again, I think it's premature.
I still disagree. If you look at his reasoning for Harrison's decline, you'll see none of them apply to your argument.Moss wasn't over 30.

There weren't two other WRs getting a larger share of the balls.

His QB wasn't coming off a record breaking season in which all signs tend to point to a regression in numbers.

Apples and oranges.
Manning had a record breaking year because the other WRs stepped up in the TD department. So if Manning reverts back to non-record breaking form, then the loss in TDs should come from those WRs, not Harrison.
:goodposting:
 
who cares?

what really matters is the scoring difference between harrison and the baseline for wrs vs. the other players at other positions and their respective baselines.
:confused: I think you might have walked in on the wrong argument.
you are right. i walked in on amateur night. i dont belong here
Don't let the door hit you on the ### on the way out.....
 
Manning had a record breaking year because the other WRs stepped up in the TD department. So if Manning reverts back to non-record breaking form, then the loss in TDs should come from those WRs, not Harrison.
That's a decent argument. Although I don't see how that gets Harrison any more yards this year.And I don't see how anyone could assert that having 1113 yards and 15 TDs would be normal......even for Harrison.

 
Manning had a record breaking year because the other WRs stepped up in the TD department. So if Manning reverts back to non-record breaking form, then the loss in TDs should come from those WRs, not Harrison.
No, Mannnig had a record breaking year because:1. Rules emphasis greatly helped passing stats especially for teams with timing based attacks.

2. Manning did not simply benifit form Wayne catching a lot more TD passes, he benifited from Wayne becasue Wayne has been developing himself into one of the best WRs in the NFL over his 4 years in the league. He is a former 1st round pick with all fo the physical tools neccessary to succed and is using those tools along with added maturity and savy to better himself as a player.

3. The emergance of another WR, the WR3 Stokely. Manning simply had the best weapons in his career around him last year.

4. Schedule

You combine 3 lethal pass catching WR, a Pro Bowl RB, 2 capable TEs and 5 of which were 1st round talents along with an easy schedule, the proper timing of the rules enforcement, and the remarkable skills of Manning and you can see why he broke the record.

None of this however changes the fact that Wayne has made himself a better a WR every year he has been in the league. Every year gaining ground on Harrison along the way. It is no coincidence that his emergance and learning curve align with a decreace in ops, rec and yds for Harrison. He passed Harrison bye in one statistical catagory last year and don't start asking why or how if he does it on more than one this year.

BTW, if you ask me. It was Harrison's 15 TDs on only 86 rec that was the result of Manning's record breaking year and insaine td to att ratio. When in Harrison's career has he ever come close to that sort of ratio before?

 
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but you are assuming of course that wayne duplicates last season. you just better hope that manning duplicates his season.
Actually I don't have to hope that. I can pencil in Manning for 30 TDs and be just fine. My hope is that Wayne is actually the better player now and Harrison IS on the decline. I've suspected it all last year when I realized Harrison was only making FF points because he was getting a TD every game. Match him up against all the other 1100 yard WRs. He's in Jimmy Smith, Rod Smith, Derrick Mason, Eddie Kennison territory. What's similar about all those guys I just listed? They are all OLD! It was by the sheer offensive display that Manning put on last year that allowed him to finish 5th and not 15th-20th. Now since I'm not a believer in Manning even SNIFFING 49 TDs (I've got him at 35.5), correspondingly, I drop Harrison to about 15th in my rankings. Also, since I believe that Wayne's numbers are more resistant to variation, him going as the 9th overall WR seems fairly reasonable to me.

Think about it. After Moss, Owens, Holt, Horn, C. Johnson, D. Jackson who is left as a bona fide producer? No one. What's left is a logjam of younger guys all looking to be the next big thing (A. Johnson, Wayne, Burleson, Clayton, Bennett, R. Williams).

It becomes a matter of taste for how you rank that next tier of guys. I have Wayne higher than the rest of the six I listed. That would make him 7th. Throw in a couple surprise older guys who either hang on, or come out of nowhere and he falls to 10th.

That's assuming Wayne doesn't improve on last year's numbers which are certainly improvable.

 
Manning had a record breaking year because the other WRs stepped up in the TD department. So if Manning reverts back to non-record breaking form, then the loss in TDs should come from those WRs, not Harrison.
No, Mannnig had a record breaking year because:1. Rules emphasis greatly helped passing stats especially for teams with timing based attacks.

2. Manning did not simply benifit form Wayne catching a lot more TD passes, he benifited from Wayne becasue Wayne has been developing himself into one of the best WRs in the NFL over his 4 years in the league. He is a former 1st round pick with all fo the physical tools neccessary to succed and is using those tools along with added maturity and savy to better himself as a player.

3. The emergance of another WR, the WR3 Stokely. Manning simply had the best weapons in his career around him last year.

4. Schedule

You combine 3 lethal pass catching WR, a Pro Bowl RB, 2 capable TEs and 5 of which were 1st round talents along with an easy schedule, the proper timing of the rules enforcement, and the remarkable skills of Manning and you can see why he broke the record.
better stay away from harrison this year
 
better stay away from harrison this year
In the 2nd, yes. I'd much reather land Wayne a round or 2 later.
:lmao: better hope manning fires another 49. the year after danny boy fired 48, he threw 30. guess whos tds are about to head south

 
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better stay away from harrison this year
In the 2nd, yes. I'd much reather land Wayne a round or 2 later.
2 rounds later? good luck. anyways, you talk as if marvin and reggie are =s. harrison is clearly more proven, clearly the #1 wr for manning, and clearly has produced when manning didnt throw 49 tds.

there is at least some risk with wayne. agreed? thats why i would be willing to pay a higher price for marvin. is there risk with him?

plus, in PPR leagues, harrison takes the cake as wayne and his 15 yard average is clearly more of a big play wr. harrison is possession/ big play/ etc.

i guess time will tell

 
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This is one of the funniest threads I've seen. How can you use historical data to talk about what Harrison and Wayne will do w/o talking about Edge? If not for Edge's troubles running inside last season, Manning doesn't throw 49 TDs.Also, it's pretty silly to talk about Harrison in a decline b/c he no longer puts 1600 yards. Yes, he was a bit down on yards last season, but his TD numbers remained in line with his career numbers. Sure, Harrison is not 26 anymore, but I didn't see him having any trouble getting open, catching the ball, or racing past DBs to get in the endzone. But really, the main reason I'm not downgrading Harrison is that he'll hold his trade value, even if he starts slow. And that alone makes him very low risk, and a very high reward.

 
This is one of the funniest threads I've seen. How can you use historical data to talk about what Harrison and Wayne will do w/o talking about Edge? If not for Edge's troubles running inside last season, Manning doesn't throw 49 TDs.
Edge has had problems with that for years.
Also, it's pretty silly to talk about Harrison in a decline b/c he no longer puts 1600 yards. Yes, he was a bit down on yards last season, but his TD numbers remained in line with his career numbers. Sure, Harrison is not 26 anymore, but I didn't see him having any trouble getting open, catching the ball, or racing past DBs to get in the endzone.
Guess which is more likely to stay consistent from year to year, yards or TDs? Right, its yards. His yards have been steadily declining for years. His yards are no longer in that range that a WR needs to be top 5. It's much more likely that his TDs drop to a normal rate than his yards shoot back up to 1400. Based on that, Harrison is likely to fall out of the top 5. Sure, its possible he can hang on Cris Carter style. Lots of TDs and just enough yards to keep him in the top 5 range. However, I'm not drafting Harrison in the 2nd round this year. I'm the same guy last year who was touting Harrison OVER Moss in the pre-season for the #1 WR. However, he's been on a decline for two solid years now. This could very well be the year his TDs come back to a normal rate. With all the other options on his team for TDs, I have to bet against him this year.
 
Nice to know Joe Horn might surpass the aging Marvin Harrison ...since Horn is eight months older! ;) Thoughts I had on all this -Moss might lose some TDs to Porter, who has been an excellent red zone target the last two years. Holt (and Bruce) might share the load with the improving Kevin Curtis. Chad Johnson mikght have to share more and more with Housh and the possible emergence of Kelly Washington. So it's hard to say exactly who will finish top five. I agree, though, that Harrison could lose a bit due to age, a shared passing attack, and the difficulty of achieving last year's lofty numbers by Manning.

 
Also, it's pretty silly to talk about Harrison in a decline b/c he no longer puts 1600 yards. Yes, he was a bit down on yards last season, but his TD numbers remained in line with his career numbers. Sure, Harrison is not 26 anymore, but I didn't see him having any trouble getting open, catching the ball, or racing past DBs to get in the endzone.
His TD numbers are the ONLY ones that were not in decline and that just so happend to be in the season that Manning broke the record for passing TDs..... coincidence maybe? I don't know, could be or could not be. It's comical though that knowing that fact and also knowing that not one, or 2, but all 3 of Wayne's major rec catagories has gone up in that same period of time... in direct relation to the decreases in Harrison.... people are trying to claim that Wayne, not Harrison was more a benifactor of the remarkable year Manning had. The numbers don't support it.
 
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Also, it's pretty silly to talk about Harrison in a decline b/c he no longer puts 1600 yards. Yes, he was a bit down on yards last season, but his TD numbers remained in line with his career numbers. Sure, Harrison is not 26 anymore, but I didn't see him having any trouble getting open, catching the ball, or racing past DBs to get in the endzone.
His TD numbers are the ONLY ones that were not in decline and that just so happend to be in the season that Manning broke the record for passing TDs..... coincidence maybe? I don't know, could be or could not be. It's comical though that knowing that fact and also knowing that not one, or 2, but all 3 of Wayne's major rec catagories has gone up in that same period of time... in direct relation to the decreases in Harrison.... people are trying to claim that Wayne, not Harrison was more a benifactor of the remarkable year Manning had. The numbers don't support it.
harrison's #s were so high, they could only go down. wayne's #s were so low, they could only go up. and harrison does have productive years when manning didnt throw 49. the same cannot be said for reggie.

marvin's TD #s didnt decline, so that means they will this year? :loco:

 
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This is one of the funniest threads I've seen. How can you use historical data to talk about what Harrison and Wayne will do w/o talking about Edge? If not for Edge's troubles running inside last season, Manning doesn't throw 49 TDs.
Point taken.....although that might explain 5 of the extra 20 TDs Manning threw. What about the other 15?
Also, it's pretty silly to talk about Harrison in a decline b/c he no longer puts 1600 yards. Yes, he was a bit down on yards last season, but his TD numbers remained in line with his career numbers. Sure, Harrison is not 26 anymore, but I didn't see him having any trouble getting open, catching the ball, or racing past DBs to get in the endzone.
Ok what should we use as a proxy for getting open? Will targets work?2002 205

2003 142

2004 138

What about catching the ball, will receptions/target work?

2002 70%

2003 66%

2004 62%

But really, the main reason I'm not downgrading Harrison is that he'll hold his trade value, even if he starts slow. And that alone makes him very low risk, and a very high reward.
Ok, this I can see as a reason of bumping him up a couple......but I'm not sure that drafting for trade bait is a great idea.
 
Nice to know Joe Horn might surpass the aging Marvin Harrison ...since Horn is eight months older! ;)
:bag: Hmmm, I might need to rethink my Horn ranking. I'm just not sure I have faith in Stallworth to step up.

 
harrison's #s were so high, they could only go down.
They go down to a certain level. However he's gone below that level.
wayne's #s were so low, they could only go up.
Wrong.
and harrison does have productive years when manning didnt throw 49. the same cannot be said for reggie. what #s are you using?
Harrison was in his PRIME then. Wayne was still working his way up in the NFL. That's all I have to say about that. It irks me when people can't use capital letters to start their sentence. Too lazy to be able to think the arguments being presented through.

 
harrison's #s were so high, they could only go down.
They go down to a certain level. However he's gone below that level.
wayne's #s were so low, they could only go up.
Wrong.
and harrison does have productive years when manning didnt throw 49. the same cannot be said for reggie. what #s are you using?
Harrison was in his PRIME then. Wayne was still working his way up in the NFL. That's all I have to say about that. It irks me when people can't use capital letters to start their sentence. Too lazy to be able to think the arguments being presented through.
:lmao: are you 12 or 13?

 
Nice to know Joe Horn might surpass the aging Marvin Harrison ...since Horn is eight months older! ;)
:bag: Hmmm, I might need to rethink my Horn ranking. I'm just not sure I have faith in Stallworth to step up.
Horn has resisted showing his age production wise and there's no other viable targets on that Saints team. Unless a WR comes absolutely out of NOWHERE or he gets hurt without finishing 14 games, he's a very strong pick to make top 5.There's also a chance that Brooks might get replaced, so I guess that factors in. However Horn has showed no signs of slowing down. It would have to be an outside factor that affected him, and it's very hard to predict those.

 
Harrison was in his PRIME then.  Wayne was still working his way up in the NFL.
what makes you think harrison isnt still in his prime? he looked just like he always has to me last year.
 
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harrison's #s were so high, they could only go down. wayne's #s were so low, they could only go up.

and harrison does have productive years when manning didnt throw 49. the same cannot be said for reggie.

marvin's TD #s didnt decline, so that means they will this year? :loco:
Noone is saying that Harrison is a bad play this year or that he is a bad WR. As a matter of fact, the worse he has been called is a top 10 WR. One thing that has become evident in looking at the 3 year trend though is that Indy does realize they have more options in the passing game than just him... very good ones at that too. Wayne is stealing looks from Harrison, like it or not. I could care less about his age, even though history does not support him very will in that either. It's the fact that is ops are getting cut into with a great deal of consistency by another very capable WR who happens to be young, a 1st round pick, improving on a yearly basis, of Pro Bowl capsity and who did outperform Harrison in at least one way last year.Say all you want about how his ability has not changed, it's not the point which you continue to miss. Let me put it this way, what would your feelings on Harrison be if Indy suddenly signed Randy Moss? I know it's an extreme example, but with better and more capable WRs on the roster, would you expect his stats to go up or down, his ops to go up or down?

Reggie Wayne has been creating more ops for himself because he has been improving every year and earining them. He is at a point in his career where improvements and maturation are common and to be expected. Harrison is past that point and it is a safe assumption that his skills and ability, maturation have becoeme stagnant. This creates a more favorable situation for Wayne at their current ADPs IMO.

 
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If he gets 1250 yards, based on his historical average of 1 TD / 123 yards (excluding 2004) I'll be surprised if he gets more than 10 TDs.
Good post. But why did you exclude last year, when his yards were down but his TDs were actually up? He got more TDs on fewer yards than I said, and you're saying that's not possible for him to do again this year.

It seems inconsistent to look at last year as a predictor for yards, ignoring every other year, but look at every other year as a predictor for TDs, ignoring last year.

 
If he gets 1250 yards, based on his historical average of 1 TD / 123 yards (excluding 2004) I'll be surprised if he gets more than 10 TDs.
Good post. But why did you exclude last year, when his yards were down but his TDs were actually up? He got more TDs on fewer yards than I said, and you're saying that's not possible for him to do again this year.

It seems inconsistent to look at last year as a predictor for yards, ignoring every other year, but look at every other year as a predictor for TDs, ignoring last year.
he started with the conclusion and when something didnt fit his arguement, he ignored it
 
harrison's #s were so high, they could only go down. wayne's #s were so low, they could only go up.

and harrison does have productive years when manning didnt throw 49. the same cannot be said for reggie.

marvin's TD #s didnt decline, so that means they will this year?  :loco:
Noone is saying that Harrison is a bad play this year or that he is a bad WR. As a matter of fact, the worse he has been called is a top 10 WR. One thing that has become evident in looking at the 3 year trend though is that Indy does realize they have more options in the passing game than just him... very good ones at that too. Wayne is stealing looks from Harrison, like it or not. I could care less about his age, even though history does not support him very will in that either. It's the fact that is ops are getting cut into with a great deal of consistency by another very capable WR who happens to be young, a 1st round pick, improving on a yearly basis, of Pro Bowl capsity and who did outperform Harrison in at least one way last year.Say all you want about how his ability has not changed, it's not the point which you continue to miss. Let me put it this way, what would your feelings on Harrison be if Indy suddenly signed Randy Moss? I know it's an extreme example, but with better and more capable WRs on the roster, would you expect his stats to go up or down, his ops to go up or down?

Reggie Wayne has been creating more ops for himself because he has been improving every year and earining them. He is at a point in his career where improvements and maturation are common and to be expected. Harrison is past that point and it is a safe assumption that his skills and ability, maturation have becoeme stagnant. This creates a more favorable situation for Wayne at their current ADPs IMO.
i didnt miss any points. i agree that when you add good options, his stats will go down, but his down stats are still great and still better than reggie wayne's. marvins stagnant opportunties are still better than waynes. reggie is still 2nd fiddle. the funadamental questions that will be answered, assuming manning doesnt repeat last years performance is, who benefitted? harrison or wayne?

and how high can reggie go, or how low can marvin go?

using history as an indicator, marvin is pretty much a lock for 10 tds, which is gonna make it difficult for him not to have a great year. in terms of ADP, harrison is a safer pick. its not just stats, its intagibles in FF.

for all we know, stokley benefitted and marvin/reggie will both tear it up.

 
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If he gets 1250 yards, based on his historical average of 1 TD / 123 yards (excluding 2004) I'll be surprised if he gets more than 10 TDs.
Good post. But why did you exclude last year, when his yards were down but his TDs were actually up? He got more TDs on fewer yards than I said, and you're saying that's not possible for him to do again this year.

It seems inconsistent to look at last year as a predictor for yards, ignoring every other year, but look at every other year as a predictor for TDs, ignoring last year.
he started with the conclusion and when something didnt fit his arguement, he ignored it
:fishing:
 
If he gets 1250 yards, based on his historical average of 1 TD / 123 yards (excluding 2004) I'll be surprised if he gets more than 10 TDs.
Good post. But why did you exclude last year, when his yards were down but his TDs were actually up? He got more TDs on fewer yards than I said, and you're saying that's not possible for him to do again this year.

It seems inconsistent to look at last year as a predictor for yards, ignoring every other year, but look at every other year as a predictor for TDs, ignoring last year.
I viewed it as an outlier......which may have been a mistake.Here is the data.

1996 105

1997 144

1998 111

1999 139

2000 101

2001 102

2002 157

2003 127

2004 74

Average including 2004 118

Average not including 2004 123

 
If he gets 1250 yards, based on his historical average of 1 TD / 123 yards (excluding 2004) I'll be surprised if he gets more than 10 TDs.
Good post. But why did you exclude last year, when his yards were down but his TDs were actually up? He got more TDs on fewer yards than I said, and you're saying that's not possible for him to do again this year.

It seems inconsistent to look at last year as a predictor for yards, ignoring every other year, but look at every other year as a predictor for TDs, ignoring last year.
he started with the conclusion and when something didnt fit his arguement, he ignored it
:fishing:
its time to stop replying when the truth is considered a fishing expedition
 
harrison's #s were so high, they could only go down. wayne's #s were so low, they could only go up.

and harrison does have productive years when manning didnt throw 49. the same cannot be said for reggie.

marvin's TD #s didnt decline, so that means they will this year? :loco:
Noone is saying that Harrison is a bad play this year or that he is a bad WR. As a matter of fact, the worse he has been called is a top 10 WR. One thing that has become evident in looking at the 3 year trend though is that Indy does realize they have more options in the passing game than just him... very good ones at that too. Wayne is stealing looks from Harrison, like it or not. I could care less about his age, even though history does not support him very will in that either. It's the fact that is ops are getting cut into with a great deal of consistency by another very capable WR who happens to be young, a 1st round pick, improving on a yearly basis, of Pro Bowl capsity and who did outperform Harrison in at least one way last year.Say all you want about how his ability has not changed, it's not the point which you continue to miss. Let me put it this way, what would your feelings on Harrison be if Indy suddenly signed Randy Moss? I know it's an extreme example, but with better and more capable WRs on the roster, would you expect his stats to go up or down, his ops to go up or down?

Reggie Wayne has been creating more ops for himself because he has been improving every year and earining them. He is at a point in his career where improvements and maturation are common and to be expected. Harrison is past that point and it is a safe assumption that his skills and ability, maturation have becoeme stagnant. This creates a more favorable situation for Wayne at their current ADPs IMO.
i didnt moss any points. i agree that when you add good options, his stats will go down, but his down stats are still great and still better than reggie wayne's. the funadamental questions that will be answered, assuming manning doesnt repeat last years performance is, who benefitted? harrison or wayne? and how high can reggie go, or how low can marvin go?

using history as an indicator, marvin is pretty much a lock for 10 tds, which is gonna make it difficult for him not to have a great year, not to outdo reggie and not to land top 5. he still gets a ton of catches, which easily vaults him over wayne in PPR leagues.
Very true. Personally, I would be shocked if Stokely was not in for a major reduction. I see along the lines of 5 TDs or half of last years total. Then you can look to the TEs who accounted for 11 TDs last year. I think that goes back to a more natural number of around 6. Harrison, I slate in the 10-13 range, so min of -2 there. With that alone your looking at around 12 TDs less and we havn't even touched Wayne yet, who is the most likely IMO to maintain his TD number of last year. With 12 TDs less, Manning is lookin at around 37 TDs. Which is still rather high, but still very close to the FGB projection.
 
using history as an indicator, marvin is pretty much a lock for 10 tds, which is gonna make it difficult for him not to have a great year. in terms of ADP, harrison is a safer pick. its not just stats, its intagibles in FF. this isnt baseball
10 TDs and 1200 yards should put him outside the top 10 WRs.Even if you bump him up a few based on being a "safe" pick......it would be hard to justify him being better than the 7th WR taken.

 
harrison's #s were so high, they could only go down. wayne's #s were so low, they could only go up.

and harrison does have productive years when manning didnt throw 49. the same cannot be said for reggie.

marvin's TD #s didnt decline, so that means they will this year?  :loco:
Noone is saying that Harrison is a bad play this year or that he is a bad WR. As a matter of fact, the worse he has been called is a top 10 WR. One thing that has become evident in looking at the 3 year trend though is that Indy does realize they have more options in the passing game than just him... very good ones at that too. Wayne is stealing looks from Harrison, like it or not. I could care less about his age, even though history does not support him very will in that either. It's the fact that is ops are getting cut into with a great deal of consistency by another very capable WR who happens to be young, a 1st round pick, improving on a yearly basis, of Pro Bowl capsity and who did outperform Harrison in at least one way last year.Say all you want about how his ability has not changed, it's not the point which you continue to miss. Let me put it this way, what would your feelings on Harrison be if Indy suddenly signed Randy Moss? I know it's an extreme example, but with better and more capable WRs on the roster, would you expect his stats to go up or down, his ops to go up or down?

Reggie Wayne has been creating more ops for himself because he has been improving every year and earining them. He is at a point in his career where improvements and maturation are common and to be expected. Harrison is past that point and it is a safe assumption that his skills and ability, maturation have becoeme stagnant. This creates a more favorable situation for Wayne at their current ADPs IMO.
i didnt moss any points. i agree that when you add good options, his stats will go down, but his down stats are still great and still better than reggie wayne's. the funadamental questions that will be answered, assuming manning doesnt repeat last years performance is, who benefitted? harrison or wayne? and how high can reggie go, or how low can marvin go?

using history as an indicator, marvin is pretty much a lock for 10 tds, which is gonna make it difficult for him not to have a great year, not to outdo reggie and not to land top 5. he still gets a ton of catches, which easily vaults him over wayne in PPR leagues.
Very true. Personally, I would be shocked if Stokely was not in for a major reduction. I see along the lines of 5 TDs or half of last years total. Then you can look to the TEs who accounted for 11 TDs last year. I think that goes back to a more natural number of around 6. Harrison, I slate in the 10-13 range, so min of -2 there. With that alone your looking at around 12 TDs less and we havn't even touched Wayne yet, who is the most likely IMO to maintain his TD number of last year. With 12 TDs less, Manning is lookin at around 37 TDs. Which is still rather high, but still very close to the FGB projection.
i bet you stokley craps out and we are both wrong cuz reggie/marvin will both be great
 
I viewed it as an outlier......which may have been a mistake.

Here is the data.

1996 105

1997 144

1998 111

1999 139

2000 101

2001 102

2002 157

2003 127

2004 74

Average including 2004 118

Average not including 2004 123
Personally, I'd only use the last 3 years. What Harrison did in 1996 is largely irrelevant IMO.That puts him at 114.08 or 10.5 TDs if you expect 1200 yards. Outside the top 5 definitely and a borderline top 10 at that.

 
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If he gets 1250 yards, based on his historical average of 1 TD / 123 yards (excluding 2004) I'll be surprised if he gets more than 10 TDs.
Good post. But why did you exclude last year, when his yards were down but his TDs were actually up? He got more TDs on fewer yards than I said, and you're saying that's not possible for him to do again this year.

It seems inconsistent to look at last year as a predictor for yards, ignoring every other year, but look at every other year as a predictor for TDs, ignoring last year.
I viewed it as an outlier......which may have been a mistake.Here is the data.

1996 105

1997 144

1998 111

1999 139

2000 101

2001 102

2002 157

2003 127

2004 74

Average including 2004 118

Average not including 2004 123
OK, now let's look at the projection (95/1250/12) I gave earlier. You said his career yards to TDs numbers didn't justify 12 TDs on 1250 yards: 1250 at 1996-2003 pace of 123 yards/TD = 10.2

1250 at his career pace of 118 yards/TD = 10.6

1250 at last year's pace of 74 yards/TD = 16.9

I think we can agree that 1250 yards and 17 TDs is unlikely. 1250 yards and 12 TDs doesn't seem unlikely, but I'll change my projection down from 12 to 11 TDs for the sake of discussion.

95 catches for 1250 yards and 11 TDs would still put him in the top 5 WR most years.

These numbers seem pretty conservative to me. Do you think the catches are too high? The yards? Or does a top 5 season seem more likely than you initially thought?

By the way, good thread. Harrison really hasn't gotten a lot of play here recently.

 
using history as an indicator, marvin is pretty much a lock for 10 tds, which is gonna make it difficult for him not to have a great year. in terms of ADP, harrison is a safer pick. its not just stats, its intagibles in FF. this isnt baseball
10 TDs and 1200 yards should put him outside the top 10 WRs.Even if you bump him up a few based on being a "safe" pick......it would be hard to justify him being better than the 7th WR taken.
10 being a worse case senario. 1200 being a worse case senario. dont forget his 90 catches in ppr leagues. 7wr taken? lolits hard for to justify FBGs approving the registration for your account

 
I viewed it as an outlier......which may have been a mistake.

Here is the data.

1996 105

1997 144

1998 111

1999 139

2000 101

2001 102

2002 157

2003 127

2004 74

Average including 2004 118

Average not including 2004 123
Personally, I'd only use the last 3 years. What Harrison did in 1996 is largely irrelevant IMO.That puts him at 114.08 or 10.5 TDs if you expect 1200 yards. Outside the top 5 definitely and a borderline top 10 at that.
but he scored 15 tds last year on 1100 yards. so lets just ignore that.you are using years in which he was the only show in town for catchea and yards, and using it aganist him.

his td #s speak for themseleves. he has scored them in years when he had a ton of ctaches/yards and when he hasnt.

plus, marvin scored his tds when manning had the following td #s

26

33

26

27

29

49

lets use some fuzzy math to get what % of mannings tds harrison caught and carry that over to this years projection and say harrison is god.

1999, harrison 12 of 26 for 47%

2000, 43%

2001, 58%

2001, 41%

2002, 41%

2003, 35%

2004, 31%

you get the picture.

harrison has averaged 41% of mannings tds thrown. pencil him in for 35, that means marvin gets 14.35.

but you only wanted to use the last 3 years, so 36% on a projected 35 tds, 12.6 or 13 tds for marvin.

let me guess, using the correlation between yards and tds is better than using the correlation between, tds and tds :lmao:

 
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OK, now let's look at the projection (95/1250/12) I gave earlier. You said his career yards to TDs numbers didn't justify 12 TDs on 1250 yards:

1250 at 1996-2003 pace of 123 yards/TD = 10.2

1250 at his career pace of 118 yards/TD = 10.6

1250 at last year's pace of 74 yards/TD = 16.9

I think we can agree that 1250 yards and 17 TDs is unlikely. 1250 yards and 12 TDs doesn't seem unlikely, but I'll change my projection down from 12 to 11 TDs for the sake of discussion.

95 catches for 1250 yards and 11 TDs would still put him in the top 5 WR most years.

These numbers seem pretty conservative to me. Do you think the catches are too high? The yards? Or does a top 5 season seem more likely than you initially thought?

By the way, good thread. Harrison really hasn't gotten a lot of play here recently.
Ok, the historical average for a #5 WR over the last 5 years is 194 points.1250/11 would put him at 191 points.....very close to the average for a #6 WR (190 points).

I could argue he'll finish 1150/9 which would put him at 169, at about #11 (average of 170).

I think he'll actually finish at close to 1200/10, or 180 points, putting him at about the #8 spot (average of 182 points).

I'll draft him at #7 due to the "saftey" factor.

 
Manning had a record breaking year because the other WRs stepped up in the TD department. So if Manning reverts back to non-record breaking form, then the loss in TDs should come from those WRs, not Harrison.
That's a decent argument. Although I don't see how that gets Harrison any more yards this year.And I don't see how anyone could assert that having 1113 yards and 15 TDs would be normal......even for Harrison.
Four other WRs have had less than 1200 receiving yards and 15 TDs:Jerry Rice had 1078/22

Sterling Sharpe had 1119/18

Bill Groman had 1175/17

Sonny Randle had 893/15

Other TD heavy guys:

Terrell Owens 1200/14

Terrell Owens 1097/14

Anthony Miller 1079/14

Frank Clarke 1043/14

Raymond Berry 959/14

Tony Martin 1171/14

Mark Clayton 1129/14

Art Powell 1167/14

12 other guys had 13 TDs and 1200 or less receiving yards.

 
Manning had a record breaking year because the other WRs stepped up in the TD department. So if Manning reverts back to non-record breaking form, then the loss in TDs should come from those WRs, not Harrison.
That's a decent argument. Although I don't see how that gets Harrison any more yards this year.And I don't see how anyone could assert that having 1113 yards and 15 TDs would be normal......even for Harrison.
do you forsee the #3 wr in indy going 68-1077-10. those #s gotta go somewhere, at least some of them do
 

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