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Has Tom Brady been downgraded since last offseason? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LawFitz
- Start date
I see you didn't even bother to read my post
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Are you refering to the Patriots RB corps that last year had almost 2,000 rushing yards, 20 TD, and a 4.6 ypc and ranked in the Top 5-10 in almost every single rushing category? Do you mean that "no running game?"
-baller
Footballguy
where do you people get these impressions from?let me guess --- avid bspn viewer?edit: good --- I see yudkin already dispatched the no running game bit.saves me some typing.
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switz
Footballguy
Please go back and re-read what I posted. I didn't say I would draft a number of QBs ahead of Brady. I fully expect Brady to go in the 2nd round of every draft I'm in this season. I just would rather not take him in the second, and land Romo, Ryan, Roethlisberger, Palmer, Cutler, et al later, as I expect them to be near Brady in numbers at the end of the season at much cheaper prices.In fact, I would probably wait til late in the draft and try to land guys like Trent Edwards or Kyle Orton instead of spending a high pick on ANY QB.
If I were to draft today I would take Peyton and Brees ahead of Brady if I had to take a QB within the first two rounds.
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-baller
Footballguy
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Yes, I get all of my news from ESPN. Where's the "confused" smiley? I wasn't saying that they can't run (that was a different member) -- I was intimating that because they will have a good running game, they could surprise defenses and revert to an old-school offense that runs first and foremost and doesn't pass nearly as much as they did in 2007.
-baller
Footballguy
for all you people that don't watch many pats games, and get all your belichick from bspn clips --- the pats go w/whatever they feel wins games, and that tends to be some kind of balanced football.
that doesn't mean every single game will end up 50/50 ---- you will see them do nothing but throw, occasionally, just like they might occasionally pound the ball, but they have a lot of good players on that team, and are far from one dimensional.
while they are an excellent running team, I doubt they'd ignore the legit 35 ppg talent they have in the passing game in order to grind out 10 points on the ground.
as for your misguided impressions of belichick, that seems more a bspn media creation than anything else.
you're describing somebody I've never seen, and I watch a lot of pats games and listen to a lot of belichick radio spots.
edit: haha...garp --- just noticed you were a chargers fan, so I guess I can understand why you might think they'd dominate the league running the ball.
you guys are probably the only fans around the league who respect their running game.
that doesn't mean every single game will end up 50/50 ---- you will see them do nothing but throw, occasionally, just like they might occasionally pound the ball, but they have a lot of good players on that team, and are far from one dimensional.
while they are an excellent running team, I doubt they'd ignore the legit 35 ppg talent they have in the passing game in order to grind out 10 points on the ground.
as for your misguided impressions of belichick, that seems more a bspn media creation than anything else.
you're describing somebody I've never seen, and I watch a lot of pats games and listen to a lot of belichick radio spots.
edit: haha...garp --- just noticed you were a chargers fan, so I guess I can understand why you might think they'd dominate the league running the ball.
you guys are probably the only fans around the league who respect their running game.
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CalBear
Footballguy
There are three major factors in NFL-record performances:
1) Talent
2) Supporting cast
3) Opportunity
When you look at the best seasons of all time (whether they're passing, receiving, or rushing seasons), all three of these factors came together at the same time: you had a talented player, with a good supporting cast, who through luck, coincidence, and situation wound up with the opportunity to do something that had never been done before. In history, there are a lot of people who've had #1 and #2 at the same time; #3 is very elusive. #3 is why Peyton Manning followed up his 49-TD season with a 28-TD season. It's why Marino followed up his 48-TD season with a 30-TD season. It's why Rice followed up 22 with 9, why Tomlinson followed up 31 with 18. In all those situations we saw one of the best players of all time, in his prime, dropping back to lower (but still very good) production, simply because he wasn't put in the same situations as often as he was during the record-breaking year.
Predicting before the season that any QB will score more than 30 or so TDs is ignoring history. And if you predict 30-32 TDs, there's no way the VBD numbers on a QB will be big enough to warrant a high first round selection. (Unless you're in a 2QB league, and maybe not even then).
1) Talent
2) Supporting cast
3) Opportunity
When you look at the best seasons of all time (whether they're passing, receiving, or rushing seasons), all three of these factors came together at the same time: you had a talented player, with a good supporting cast, who through luck, coincidence, and situation wound up with the opportunity to do something that had never been done before. In history, there are a lot of people who've had #1 and #2 at the same time; #3 is very elusive. #3 is why Peyton Manning followed up his 49-TD season with a 28-TD season. It's why Marino followed up his 48-TD season with a 30-TD season. It's why Rice followed up 22 with 9, why Tomlinson followed up 31 with 18. In all those situations we saw one of the best players of all time, in his prime, dropping back to lower (but still very good) production, simply because he wasn't put in the same situations as often as he was during the record-breaking year.
Predicting before the season that any QB will score more than 30 or so TDs is ignoring history. And if you predict 30-32 TDs, there's no way the VBD numbers on a QB will be big enough to warrant a high first round selection. (Unless you're in a 2QB league, and maybe not even then).
Seymour Corn
it=info
I'm upgrading him to #1 because he doesn't have look over his shoulder at Cassel anymore. Losing that kind of stress will really help a guy recover from injury and throw for massive TDs.
He's also married now. That can make a BIG difference.
He's also married now. That can make a BIG difference.
LawFitz
Footballguy
What if you're predicting 30/4000 as the bare minimum floor (barring injury) with major upside from there? Where does that put a QB in a single QB 6 pts per pass TD format???That's why I think I'm still so high on Brady. His floor IMO is almost every other QB's ceiling. Aside from Brees, and maybe Manning and Pip, no one else is anywhere near this range.
If he and those two WRs are healthy he's as safe as it gets in round 1 for stud production.
Not necessarily. If he does go 4000/30 and you picked him in the first round, the guy who got the QB in the 3rd or 4th who went for the same or 10% less (see guys like Rogers and Rivers last year) is a step ahead of you. It really forces you to nail your RB picks. If you take a QB higher than the 10th pick in the first round in a 1 QB league, you better be banking on at least 35 td's, and I'm not prepared to do that.
CalBear
Footballguy
The QB baseline is too high in a 12-team, start-1 league. In 2008, the #12 QB (Garrard) put up 3620/15, plus 322/2 rushing, for 252 fantasy points. Above that level were guys like Tyler Thigpen, Chad Pennington, and Matt Cassell who were not even drafted in fantasy drafts. In 2007 the #12 QB scored 257, and Kurt Warner and Derek Anderson were undrafted players in the top 12. 4000/30 is just 280 points by FBG scoring. Are you willing to spend a first-round pick on a 25 fantasy point differential?
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
So you if you take a QB later then you don't have to hit on your first round RB? The bottom line is you need to hit on a majority of players or get the guy that can win a league on his own (Brady in 07, LT in 06, etc.). If you can be assured of getting the production you expect at QB, it could be worth drafting a QB early. The problem is, most of the time you can't predict that with any real amount of certainty and a lot of times things don't work out.
It just seems that in a 1 QB league, there's more likely to be a bigger gap between your 1st round RB and 4th round RB than your 1st round QB and 4th round QB. Ironically, I actually play in a 2 QB league, so Brady will be off the board by the 10th pick in my league, but I still wouldn't feel comfortable taking him there.
Horses Mouth
Footballguy
finally someone coming to the discussion with some facts.
Seymour Corn
it=info
Thanks man. QBing is all about whats between the ears.finally someone coming to the discussion with some facts.
switz
Footballguy
Outside of two seasons ago, has there been another season where Brady outscored Peyton? No.Manning dropped to #6 QB last season because he started the year not fully recovered form knee surgery. Sounds similar to the way Brady will start this season.They may end up finishing close in stats, but IMO Peyton is a far safer pick... he has a track record of FF success that Brady can't rival at all.
switz
Footballguy
Huh? When did he ever look over his shoulder and have Cassel looming? Never... It wasn't until he got injured that Cassel was even a thought to take a snap. Brady has NEVER played a game looking over his shoulder at Cassel... that argument makes no sense at all.
He's married, so that makes him a better QB? It makes him heal faster? He's been in a long term relationship with his wife as it is, how has anything changed?Sorry, I just don't see any merit in your arguments.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
gianmarco
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
My bad. I misunderstood.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I may be inclined to agree with your conclusion in whole or in part, but I can't say that your explanation is really viable.Up until his monster year, Brady did not have the same talent pool to draw from as he did in 2007. I know you will try to make a case that players like Troy Brown, David Patten, David Givens, and Deion Branch were on par with Moss and Welker, but I think the majority of people will say Moss and Welker trump any other pair of NE receivers that Brady played with.As we move forward, Manning on the other hand is losing Harrison, so it's conceivable that his numbers will start sliding a little without Marvin in the fold. I don't think he will drop tremendously, but he might be closer to a pack of other QB than in the past.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
That will be interesting to see.With the Colts bringing in Brown to compete with Addai and not having Marvin around, maybe the Colts will run the ball more. Sure would help their defense.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Also, new head coaches can also impact things, so things are not as similar as they have been in the past for Manning. Just something to consider . . .
Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
This is pretty much my thinking, although not the same QB alternatives I'd go for, also
I would say that Brady's FF value is "easily replaceable" depending on your league and draft strategy.
Seymour Corn
it=info
It's all about phsychology. Brady had to sit in his hospital bed for 16 weeks and watch his bread get buttered by Cassel. 16 weeks of watching Cassel steal your glory can be tough. Thats why he needed Cassel gone. Cassel gone....stress relieved.Why would he marry his long time girlfriend? Why buy the cow when the milk is free?I'll tell you why. Cause if he didn't, Cassel would probably have swooped in and stole his old lady while he was in the hospital.I'll put it in simple terms. Brady is a Camaro, but Cassel is an IROC.When the light goes green, a Camaro will blow the doors off a Sunfire. But when an IROC rolls up, the Camaro puts on his indicator and turns down a side street.
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
I was kinda wondering the same thing.I can see not taking him until the 2nd round. But to drop him out of the top 3 QB's just seems like lunacy to me.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I don't think anyone is suggesting that Brady is going to fall out of the Top 10 and he may not fall out of the Top 5. But the issue is whether he is worth taking where you have to draft him in terms of his year-end value.It's conceivable that he could be drafted as the #1 QB and end the year ranked as the #1 QB and still not be worth it. In that scenario, other QBs would finish close enough to him and the QB crop on a whole would need to be grouped fairly close together to not make it worth it.Some will argue that you can get almost the same production from other QBs drafted in later rounds, making the desire and need to draft Brady pretty low. The extended argument is that the player you COULD have taken in Brady's spot will be more productive than the guy available later BECAUSE you took Brady.I personally would argue that taking a QB very early is looking for trouble for two reasons: 1) normally the guys that have a magically or great year to rank #1 did not do it the year before and are hard to predict. Did people draft guys like Warner (first year in STL), Brady in 07, Brees last year, Culpepper in 04, etc. early early on based on their stellar season the year before? 2) Most of the time when QBs start getting drafted extremely early it's based on what they did most recently, and the track reocrd for having back to back monster seasons is rare. Brady didn't play but a few snaps last year, so I'm not sure how to evaluate him for this year on the "things will not fall into place" argument because they clearly didn't in 08.I'm not suggesting people shouldn't draft Brady, but in many ways he carries some risk to not be a great ROI. If he gets drated in the Top 10-15 picks, he probably needs to have 400 yard passing and somewherein the 30-35 TD range. If you use that as what he needs to do to essentially break even, there may be other QB that I think could surpass their projected baselines available later on.For example, if there were a QB projected at 3000/15 (and thus available many rounds later) that might get 3800/28 this year, I would suggest that that player would be a better investment than Brady. If people think Brady really does have a 4500/40 season in him, by all means they should consider taking Brady where he'll be getting drafted.
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
I'm quoting this to save it for posterity.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I agree that taken as a mere sentence that this seems odd . . . but you have to consider the entire team drafted to determine how crazy this sounds.Many people draft bulking up at all other positions and then getting their QBs. In your citation, I don't think it's as crazy as it sounds. I think both Edwards and Orton are in for much better seasons and could be had fairly cheap.The odds of them doing better than Brady are remote, but they may do well enough that with a better fantasy supporting cast a team could still outscore a team with Brady on it.In this example, say Brady gets picked at a late 1st/early 2nd round pick and puts up 350 fantasy points. Let's say one of the other two guys has a strong year and ends up with 300 (Cutler had almost 350 last year). Now factor in the difference between the guy that WASN'T taken at the Brady pick. Moss? Fitzgerald? Portis? How much better would that guy do compared to the player taken where Edwards or Orton was taken?
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
I don't think you misunderstood as much as he didn't clearly state what he was thinking.He clearly said their were other QB's he'd rather have than Brady. What he didn't say was that he'd rather have Brady than all but 2 of those other QB's if the price was the same. That's a pretty important disctinction that was left out of the original statement.
It's also interesting that Brady still has Moss and Manning doesn't have Harrison (and hasn't for a season or two, now). Yet Manning is the safer pick?
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
I'm not some noobie to value based drafting. I have no problem taking a shot with these guys as my #2. In fact, I am all about drafting value in later rounds. But advocating taking Edwards OR (not and) Orton instead of ANY other QB is too much of a gamble for me.What are you really gaining? Some earlier choice for your RB3 or WR3? That seems odd when the argument is that there is too much uncertainty to pay Brady's price to get him. Uncertainty...and you're looking at Orton in Denver as your QB1?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well my love of Randy Moss runs deep. So you might find less biased opinions than mine on this matter.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I'm not suggesting you need a lesson on value or drafting, but if we use current ADPs and Jason Wood's projections as a guide . . .If your choice is Brady over Moss in the 2nd round and downstream Trent Edwards or Kevin Curtis in the 12th, assuming every other player is the same and you plan on starting all of these platers:Brady 325 points + Curtis 105 points = 430 pointsMoss 203 points + Edwards 265 points = 468 pointsYes, I know that you could end up with a better option than Curtis before Round 12, but the fact of the matter remains that you can get decent scoring QBs pretty late. You probably will have very little chance of getting a top scoring RB or WR that late, which is what people are arguing in passing on Brady early.JamesTheScot said:
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I like Moss, too, but if he were the main ingredient to making a viable QB, then why didn't Culpepper have 4000/35 every year? C-Pep had 4000 yards passing once and 30 TD twice.Biabreakable said:
LawFitz
Footballguy
What? Are you serious with this? Palmer hurt his knee during the playoffs after the 2005 season. I'd say he did pretty well until the wheels fell off that entire team last year.http://www.nfl.com/players/carsonpalmer/ca...ts?id=PAL249055BusterTBronco said:
Year Team G Att Comp Pct Att/G Yds Avg Yds/G TD TD% Int Int% Lng 20+ 40+ Sck SckY Rate
2008 Cincinnati Bengals 4 129 75 58.1 32.2 731 5.7 182.8 3 2.3 4 3.1 36 7 0 11 67 69.0
2007 Cincinnati Bengals 16 575 373 64.9 35.9 4,131 7.2 258.2 26 4.5 20 3.5 70T 51 8 17 119 86.7
2006 Cincinnati Bengals 16 520 324 62.3 32.5 4,035 7.8 252.2 28 5.4 13 2.5 74T 52 15 36 233 93.9
2005 Cincinnati Bengals 16 509 345 67.8 31.8 3,836 7.5 239.8 32 6.3 12 2.4 70T 43 9 19 105 101.1
Also note that Carson's injury was in Jan (vs. Sept for Brady) and although Brady's might have been just as severe - I'm not sure - Carson's was thought to be "career threatening" by his doctors.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Don't forget though David, that it's not just Moss but the entire environment overall. Moss/Welker/Belichick/Pats OLine.Duante was much better when he did have Moss than without and
I won't even begin to discuss the many reasons why Moss did not have a positive effect on Oakland QBs.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Anarcy,I know your not comparing Brady to C-Pep are you?Maybe I am not being reasonable here and my mind is never set in stone but I don't think we have seen the end of this sick combination of Brady Moss and Welker just yet.Is there a RB who is going to score a lot of TD? How many TD will the Patriots score in 2009?I don't have hard numbers for this yet but as exceptional it may be for a QB to throw 30+ TD I think this group of players are just as exceptional.
LawFitz
Footballguy
I don't question the general merits of VBD but one problem I have with it is potential variability from projections. Some players have a higher risk of not meeting projections than others. Sure you could take a Trent Edwards type late and hope he manages the 265 points but I'd argue that the chances of him not hitting his targets are much greater than that of Brady.I wish there was a way to adjust VBD for riskiness of one player vs another to address this issue.Currently I make this adjustment in my head as I place a higher value on players with higher floors (and higher ceilings) relative to projected scoring.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Agreed. I'm by no means a Pats fan but it's pretty obvious that they are one of the best run orgs in the league and they continue to use the draft and free agency better than just about anyone else to stockpile good players around a very very talented and proven nucleus.Which is why I go back to the original premise of this thread. If Brady was worth a top selection last year, why isn't he this year (assuming health)? And if we can't assume health, how much do we discount him due to the injury?Personally, as my drafts approach, if I become completely confident that health won't be an issue I would probably take only a small handful of guys ahead of TB.Adrian Peterson (MIN) Maurice Jones-Drew Brian WestbrookLarry Fitzgeraldand maybeMichael TurnerDeAngelo WilliamsAndre JohnsonMatt ForteKeep in mind I play in a 0.5 ppr w/3 starting WRs and 6 pts for all TDs so WRs and stud QBs may be more valuable to me than you. The only reason Moss isn't on the list is that if I can't trust Brady then I by default I probably can't trust Moss.
switz
Footballguy
Again, there's a need to comprehend what's said, perhaps I wasn't clear enough. It's not that I like Orton or Edwards better than ANY QB out there... rather, I'd prefer to have them fall late in the draft than spend a high pick just to get a QB. Of course the likelihood is that I'd easily be able to get a QB in the 5th or 6th rounds like Delhomme or something... but frankly, I would expect to fare better grabbing a guy like that in the middle and landing Orton or Edwards late, than I woudl spending the pick needed to land a Manning, Brees, or Brady....In essence, my view isn't so much about Brady himself, but rather spending high picks on a QB. How many people were burned by taking Brady, or even Peyton early last season? See my point?JamesTheScot said:
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Pats RBs had 19 rushing TD last year. The years prior to that were 14, 20, 15, and 15.And I do think Brady will hit 30 TD if he plays in 15 or 16 games. But I would be hard pressed to expect much more than that. The fact of the matter is we have no idea yet how Brady will do post knee injury. He could pick up where he left off.And since we mentioned that, in his last 8 full games played (so not counting the game he got injured), Brady put up 191-295-2104-17-7. That's a pace of nearly 600 attempts, which I don't see happening. But doubling the main stats would total 4200-34-14.IMO, his hot start to 2007 may be more of an outlier than people are accounting for and the line I just provided may be a more accurate baseline to consider.On a different note, I recall years where the Rams offense seemed totally stacked . . . but they still didn't manage to score a ton of points. I'm not saying the Patriots will have trouble scoring, but scoring 589 points again for NE seems unlikely in my book.
switz
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
This one is going to be interesting again for sure.I guess I could see a scenario where Maroney might suprise. If the running game is more effective I do think they will lean on it when they can.In the end I will Probably have Brady with a floor of something like 26 TD but the upside is going to be something like 40.Interesting stuff about the 2007 splits. I was thinking 550 passing attempts as a mid point with a chance for as low as like 480 if the running game is doing well.
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
And the bolded part is the whole point! What are you really gaining by passing on higher projected starters, even if the projection differences are relatively minor, to take bench depth at other positions? If you don't trust your projections for your RB1, RB2, WR1 and WR2, why would you trust your projections for T.Edwards? I'm not arguing about passing on Brady early. I've said I think he's top 3 in QB's and I don't see dropping him below that in QB rankings. But I agree that passing on him for better value later isn't a bad idea. My disagreement with Switz isn't over Brady's value. It's in relying on projections for players like Edwards or Orton to merit taking them as your QB1.
In other words, which of these projections do you think is most likely to pan out? Which projection is least reliable?
Brady at 325 as my QB1?
Curtis at 105 as my WR5? (assuming I took 4 RB's, 4WR's, 2 QB's and 1 TE prior)
Moss at 203 as my WR1?
Edwards at 265 as my QB1?
Curtis and Edwards are more risky to me because there is more uncertainty in their situations compared to Brady and Moss. The problem is, in Switz's scenario, he's banking on Edwards to pan out as his QB1 where I have the luxury of missing on Curtis because he's my WR4 or WR5 at best...because I've taken 11 other players ahead of Curtis including my WR1, WR2, WR3 and maybe even my WR4.
Unfortunately, if I followed Switz's method, I don't have another QB in those previous 11 picks. I can afford to miss on Curtis, I can't afford to miss on Edwards. In other words, I'd rather have Curtis as my WR4 and have Edwards as my QB2 than I would having Curtis as my WR5 and Edwards as my QB1.
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-baller
Footballguy
so, what you're suggesting is that we would be much better served by drafting peterson w/a top 5 pick and watching him get knocked out in week 1 of the seson w/a torn acl?could you clarify this, because your posts get more and more confusing.
uh....what now?where have you been hearing this?switz said:
outside of two seasons ago, has there been another season where brady had equivalent receivers to throw to?
as already mentioned --- brady keeps moss and welker, and adds galloway, while manning subtracts harrison.
we'll see how well brady can rival manning........
-baller
Footballguy
wtf voodoo is that?I think we're sending your ### over to switz-erland w/that kind of book cooking.I hope you put out some projections for this site, and you only use deangelo's first 8 games in your rankings.your new nickname is karl rove jr.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
I know there's been a lot of snide remarks in this thread, and I'm not just saying this because Yudkin is staff; these sorts are posts are not acceptable here. You should know better by not, but in case you didn't, please contribute something else in your posts or nothing at all.
-baller
Footballguy
this has got to be the most hypersensitive humorless board I have ever seen in my internet life.
you're popping midol because I called him karl rove jr and sending him to switz-erland?
if yudkin hasn't already learned his lesson I will post enough numbers to put the Count to sleep --- maybe that's more to your tastes.
you're popping midol because I called him karl rove jr and sending him to switz-erland?
if yudkin hasn't already learned his lesson I will post enough numbers to put the Count to sleep --- maybe that's more to your tastes.
