Victor Cruz - Clear #1 WR in a good offensive scheme and stable QB situation (Manning is as close as you get to a mortal lock to start 16 games) who he has a good rapport with. Always seems to start the season strong, so maybe you dish him for value if he does so again.
Larry Fitzgerald - People say he is slowing down, I call BS on that. He is 30 years old and one of the best WRs of the past decade. Look at the list of WRs ahead of him on the all time yardage list, they all went on to multiple highly productive seasons after turning 30. Also has a good QB/scheme situation and is the clear favorite target near the end zone.
DeSean Jackson - New team, new scheme, new QB. But how far do you discount the most explosive WR on this list? About this far IMO.
Cordarrelle Patterson - Total gut call. He is still absolutely raw and mostly unproven. That being said I love what Norv does with his #1 WRs, he sends them deep to make big plays. He may be as dynamic as DeSean and if your league gives return scores to the individual then he gets a healthy bump. But this guy could easily finish 3-4 spots lower on this list.
Roddy White - He came on very strong after getting healthy last year. The running game is suspect at best but the offensive line is improved so hopefully Ryan won't be running for his life anymore. He also likes to sling the ball downfield and with the loss of Gonzo coupled with Julio drawing away most of the high end coverage Roddy is poised for another Roddy-like season. I think he is one of the safest picks on your list.
Michael Floyd - He really looked like he was emerging as the real deal as last season went on. I don't think the Cards have a credible enough ground game, particularly between the tackles, to turn into a milk the clock team so I think there will be plenty of passes to go around in the offense and Arians does not favor the TE in the passing game either. I think Fitz limits his TD potential but he should finish with more yards, possibly by a wide margin.
Michael Crabtree - The niners don't pass a whole lot and there are a lot of pass catchers to go around but I think Crabtree is Kaepernick's favorite. I also think Crabs is feeling pretty motivated by how the NFC championship game ended. If he is on his game I think he will emerge as the unquestioned #1 in SF.
Keenan Allen - I am skeptical about Allen for some reason. There is no guarantee that after an incredible rookie season that he will automatically be better in year two. He has an excellent QB and appears to be the #1 target so I could definitely see him out perform 3 or 4 of the WRs I ranked ahead of him but I don't think he has particularly special measurables and I could just as easily see him underperform expectations.
Vincent Jackson - I probably have him too low but I am just not sure how Jeff Tedford is going to deploy him. Jackson is a long strider and takes time to get up to speed (once there he will blow by lots of DBs though) he has never been a particularly crisp route runner either. And how much faith should we really have in Journeyman Josh McKnown and Mike Glennon? The offensive line is also struggling so I am being very cautious about VJax this season.
Pierre Garcon - Like Allen I could easily see him outperform this ranking. Unlike Allen I think Garcon has solid measurables and a better pedigree. What I don't like is not knowing how much usage he will get. The Redskins have the offensive ability to be a milk the clock team OTOH do they have the defense to shorten games? I don't know. Too many question marks.
Andre Johnson - At 33 AJ is nearing the end of the line IMO, but I don't think from a talent perspective that will happen this season. However from a team perspective he is in real trouble. Fitz has put up credible passing numbers in the past but he doesn't put up wins, he has also looked mediocre in the preseason (FWIW) and I don't think he will start all season which means Case Keenum and probably Tom Savage will be seeing time under center. I also think the Texans will rely heavily on a revitalized defense (adding Clowney and a healthy Cushing) and will possibly ride Arian Foster into the ground (possibly literally). If Foster gets injured they may have to become pass heavy out of necessity but I don't think they have the QBs to make a difference.
Percy Harvin - The talent is there, without question, he will run the ball, return the ball and obviously catch the ball. The guy is exciting to watch (on par with DeSean and Cordarrelle in that regard) but it is tough to rely on him being healthy for even 12 games let alone 16. Plus Seattle seems quite content to ground and pound and rely on the defense to keep games close.
TY Hilton - The ultimate feast or famine player. Good QB and super easy schedule (on paper) his year end stats will probably look solid but the guy just disappears for weeks at a time before exploding for a huge game or two. He is tiny too which is probably why he gets lost in the shuffle for extended periods. Also if Wayne stays healthy and Nicks even reclaims a shadow of what he was, plus with Dwayne Allen returning, I think that puts a lot of targets on the field for Luck and will hinder Hilton's opportunities.
