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How Did You Transform from a Guppy to a Shark? (1 Viewer)

just_want_2_win

Footballguy
How did you transform from a guppy to a shark? What spurred the change? A bad season? Your competitive nature, etc.?

With me it was after winning my first title in 2005 after 8 years of FF. The next year my team was terrible -- the only losing season I've ever had. After that I studied all the FF strategy I could. Since 2007 I've won 4 more leagues.

 
It's just experience. You can't replace years and years of learning what not to do. You have to take your lumps in the beginning while you are still figuring out that a good nfl player doesn't always mean good fantasy player, and learning how to draft according to your leagues scoring system, and working the waiver wire, and how to trade smart, and when to give up on a player or when to hold. So many little nuances that you can only pick up with years of experience IMO

 
'just_want_2_win said:
How did you transform from a guppy to a shark? What spurred the change? A bad season? Your competitive nature, etc.?With me it was after winning my first title in 2005 after 8 years of FF. The next year my team was terrible -- the only losing season I've ever had. After that I studied all the FF strategy I could. Since 2007 I've won 4 more leagues.
Coming to this site honestly. Well maybe that plus being sober more. I don't subscribe but there are views and info here that I don't seem to get anywhere else. I don't follow the info straight up though, I just use it as a piece to the puzzle in making my decisions.My history:No fbg from 2000-2004, no winning season no playoffs, I was also a drunk during this time however...Then I found this site2005 1st, and 1st in another league that I drafted and managed for my bro2006 Drafted and ran my bros one more time and got 2nd or 3rd I don't recallquit ff altogether until2009 co owned with friend 2nd2010 3rd2011 1st12 team league for me, 10 for my bro.So ya, ty fbgs!
 
The more difficult progression is from Shark to Hawk. It's like jumping from junior high straight into med school.

 
First, preseason actually means something.

Second, schedule IS important.

Third, start your lineup and pray you don't have injuries.

Fourth, adjust but not overreact in the first 3-4 weeks.

Fifth, there is no fifth.

 
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'GordonGekko said:
'just_want_2_win said:
How did you transform from a guppy to a shark? What spurred the change? A bad season? Your competitive nature, etc.?
IMHO, after a certain level of basics and how to upkeep a team, then it's mostly a function of effort and maintenance during the season. Some people deal with their fantasy team maybe once or twice a week. I think you have to commit to making it an everyday thing. Maybe not an intensive amount of time, but I think you have to keep your eyes on what real teams are doing and trends and injuries and up to the minute news that will help you. The best thing any rookie can do is to find someone who has time in fantasy to show them the ropes and the basics. This site is helpful because you get local knowledge from a range of opinions and observations. Sometimes it helps to hear a Cincy fan and resident talk about Andrew Hawkins and certain tendencies that would be harder to pick up if you weren't local to the team and followed them closely. It would be harder to track a guy like LeStar Jean or Dwayne Harris without this board. Strangely enough, I think video games have also impacted the fantasy landscape. The games have gotten more complex with more realism and more in game type critical junctures and sometimes personnel decisions to make. There are 12 year old kids who can barely write a coherent book report but can decode a two deep zone or predict a blitz or knows when to audible or not. I think video games have made a lot of casual players much more sophisticated into some of the intricacies of the real game itself, and that translates a bit into fantasy knowledge. The best thing a veteran player can do is try different types of leagues with different types of settings and requirements. I think you learn a lot that way, doing five or six teams a year compared to one. IMHO, it accelerates your learning curve.
I sure do miss GordonGekko.
 
'rickyg said:
It's just experience. You can't replace years and years of learning what not to do. You have to take your lumps in the beginning while you are still figuring out that a good nfl player doesn't always mean good fantasy player, and learning how to draft according to your leagues scoring system, and working the waiver wire, and how to trade smart, and when to give up on a player or when to hold. So many little nuances that you can only pick up with years of experience IMO
No offense meant, but to me what is said here is the opposite of what a shark is.A shark doesn't need to spend years learning what player value is with unfamiliar scoring systems or lineup requirements. A shark is someone who knows how to determine player value in any system. Including those he's never played in before. While he'll benefit from experience in it, sure, he can get 90% of the way to the answer without ever having played in it.A shark is also someone who seeks out the truth about things rather than just believing hunches. He's likely to have a better understanding of things like how much previous injuries are a predictor of future injuries, what team offensive stats best predict kicker success, what the normal drop off rate of RB performance due to age is, and whether starting a QB-WR from the same team is beneficial or not under different circumstances. And those won't be based just on him feeling it's that way, but be based on having actually investigated, or sought out others investigations to determine what the truth is rather than just go with his hunch.
 
Convinced as many Noobs and Dummies as I could to join a league.

 
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As for the getting there...

I learned much of what I know about FF from the old days of the message board here, and from many of the early articles. New members may hear people talk fondly of Old Yeller, our name for the old board that had a yellow background before the current forum software came into use.

It was a time when FF had just gone widespread. People who learned or figured out on their own the Stud RB Theory did very well. Even if they didn't really understand why it worked, and more importantly under what league parameters, or for what spots in a draft, it doesn't work as well.

The Shark Pool was an amazing place to learn how to get past "experienced owner" and become a true shark. VBD was debated and discussed until it was well understood. Dynamic VBD came along and the same happened. Sometimes new methods came along like Average Value Theory, and it was in the discussion of them in the Shark Pool where their strengths and weaknesses came out and whether (and how) they should be used.

It was a very organic growth of knowledge through debate. The thing that kept me on Footballguys was not that I'd found someone who could tell me what to do, but that I'd found someone who would teach you what it is you needed to learn to be able to do it for yourself.

Things are a bit different now. It is so easy to get FF advice custom tailored to your team that fewer people have the interest of learning how to do it themselves. A dozen times a year there will be someone asking those kind of higher level "how do you do it correctly" about draft strategy, or VBD or the like, but it's nothing like the old days when such discussions were constant. Many of the topics are now very well covered in articles that are several years old. Based on what I see in the Shark Pool, I just don't see as much demand now for people wanting to learn the intricacies of FF like we used to.

 
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Experience, Experience, Experience! Get involved in as many leagues (and is reasonable) as possible. Take on a teammate in one or two as well, always great for insight. Reading these message boards is great as well.

Saying your prayers, eating your vitamins!!!!

 
Guppies don't "turn into" Sharks anymore than chicken #### can be "turned into" chicken salad.

Sharks are born. If you have to ask... :coffee:

 
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Here's an example.

Go to pick up Battle Wednesday, very smart.

Go to pick up Battle Thursday, SOL.

Dollar Late = Dollar Short.

 
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I always had the natural ability to dominate fantasy football, but I took it for granted. I was always the best in rec leagues, high school and even college, so I thought it would always be easy. Draft 2 RB's and best available after that. Rinse and repeat. I didn't even use the internet. I was just that much better than everyone else. I thought I was already a shark. Then I joined my first Big Money Ultra Competitive League and thought I would dominate there, as well. I couldn't be more wrong. I was humiliated to the point where I wanted to quit. Even guppies mocked me. I was an amoeba. But then I got a letter from a 6-year-old kid in the war-torn wasteland that was the former Zaire. This tiny, emaciated hero didn't even realize how horrible his life was. He just wanted to let his hero, me, know that the time I took four straight WR's got him through the tough times.

I had a new vigor after that. I started watching YouTube compilations and referring to them as "game tape." I began to "crunch numbers." I developed complicated, elaborate draft strategies with names like "Kirchner's Algorithmic Value Assessment T-3 Model." Pretty soon, I was not only crushing my opponents, I was eviscerating them. And then I remembered little Ndukowe and how he only wanted to give, despite the fact he had nothing. So I also started helping the community. I posted on message boards. A lot. Like, a whole lot. I would personalize posts in an attempt to connect to others. "Hi, RedskinsRule36, that is a great question" for example. I even tried to make the staff, and I still might, but it doesn't matter. Because I am now truly a shark. And that's all that matters.

 
Sorry son, but I don't have to dumb down The Sport just so noobs like you have a chance at keeping up.

I play in a $4,000 entry, Super-WCOFF, triple-reverse, double down, mirror league with a modified PPFDR base 8 scoring system, and we just held our draft in July. For the 2013 season. You think Matt Barkley getting the start in USC is news? I drafted him after studying up on him, after he signed his letter of intent, last year. You think that maybe going with a WR in the first two rounds instead of back-to-back RBs is somehow new thinking in fantasy? Well, do you have the balls to do what I did this year when I didn't take my first RB until the fourth round (Roderick Smith, Harding High School of Indiana)? You've probably never even heard of Martavis Bryant, Kyle Prater, or Darius White, yet not only did I draft them this year to form my future WR core, I've also started referring to them by fantasy board nicknames (Super Mart, KPrater, & DoubleDarius). Hell, guys like you are going to be the poor schmucks who are searching this board five years from now for info on some great RB you just heard of out of the middle of nowhere in Alaska, and the FBG search result box is going to come up with this very post, where I brag about nabbing Isaiah Weeks of the Monroe Catholic Rams at the 25.32/26.01 turn a full two months before he lit up Delta Junction for 193 yards/2 TDs or Ketchikan for 183 rushing yards, 55 rec yards, & 2 TDs. You'll be wondering about his durability and I'll remember a phone call I made back when you were just hearing the name "Knowshon Moreno" for the first time to the kid's doctor in Fairbanks about the sprain he suffered in his left ankle in 2008.

Let me give you a tip, IT = INFO, and there's no "expires by" date on it.

 
When I decided to continue to stay up to date on things during the offseason. I watch a lot of football every week, but I didn't used to spend much time during the week. When I first started playing I tried to absorb too much during the season and suffered from information overload. Now I do a little bit of football reading just about every day year 'round, it makes in-season management significantly easier because when a situation changes you already know the answer without having to look anything up.

 
I always had the natural ability to dominate fantasy football, but I took it for granted. I was always the best in rec leagues, high school and even college, so I thought it would always be easy. Draft 2 RB's and best available after that. Rinse and repeat. I didn't even use the internet. I was just that much better than everyone else. I thought I was already a shark. Then I joined my first Big Money Ultra Competitive League and thought I would dominate there, as well. I couldn't be more wrong. I was humiliated to the point where I wanted to quit. Even guppies mocked me. I was an amoeba. But then I got a letter from a 6-year-old kid in the war-torn wasteland that was the former Zaire. This tiny, emaciated hero didn't even realize how horrible his life was. He just wanted to let his hero, me, know that the time I took four straight WR's got him through the tough times.I had a new vigor after that. I started watching YouTube compilations and referring to them as "game tape." I began to "crunch numbers." I developed complicated, elaborate draft strategies with names like "Kirchner's Algorithmic Value Assessment T-3 Model." Pretty soon, I was not only crushing my opponents, I was eviscerating them. And then I remembered little Ndukowe and how he only wanted to give, despite the fact he had nothing. So I also started helping the community. I posted on message boards. A lot. Like, a whole lot. I would personalize posts in an attempt to connect to others. "Hi, RedskinsRule36, that is a great question" for example. I even tried to make the staff, and I still might, but it doesn't matter. Because I am now truly a shark. And that's all that matters.
:lmao: :lmao: :cry: :lmao: :lmao:
 
'just_want_2_win said:
How did you transform from a guppy to a shark? What spurred the change? A bad season? Your competitive nature, etc.?With me it was after winning my first title in 2005 after 8 years of FF. The next year my team was terrible -- the only losing season I've ever had. After that I studied all the FF strategy I could. Since 2007 I've won 4 more leagues.
Only 4?
 
I always had the natural ability to dominate fantasy football, but I took it for granted. I was always the best in rec leagues, high school and even college, so I thought it would always be easy. Draft 2 RB's and best available after that. Rinse and repeat. I didn't even use the internet. I was just that much better than everyone else. I thought I was already a shark. Then I joined my first Big Money Ultra Competitive League and thought I would dominate there, as well. I couldn't be more wrong. I was humiliated to the point where I wanted to quit. Even guppies mocked me. I was an amoeba. But then I got a letter from a 6-year-old kid in the war-torn wasteland that was the former Zaire. This tiny, emaciated hero didn't even realize how horrible his life was. He just wanted to let his hero, me, know that the time I took four straight WR's got him through the tough times.I had a new vigor after that. I started watching YouTube compilations and referring to them as "game tape." I began to "crunch numbers." I developed complicated, elaborate draft strategies with names like "Kirchner's Algorithmic Value Assessment T-3 Model." Pretty soon, I was not only crushing my opponents, I was eviscerating them. And then I remembered little Ndukowe and how he only wanted to give, despite the fact he had nothing. So I also started helping the community. I posted on message boards. A lot. Like, a whole lot. I would personalize posts in an attempt to connect to others. "Hi, RedskinsRule36, that is a great question" for example. I even tried to make the staff, and I still might, but it doesn't matter. Because I am now truly a shark. And that's all that matters.
:pics: :pics: :pics: :pics: :pics:
 
What do you call a guy who understands the concepts and used to be pretty darn good but hasn't put the time in lately to watch enough game tape to be as knowledgeable as is needed to still be a "shark"?

 
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What do you call a guy who understands the concepts and used to be pretty darn good but hasn't put the time in lately to watch enough game tape to be as knowledgeable as is needed to still be a "shark"?
Mike Holmgren.
 
'just_want_2_win said:
How did you transform from a guppy to a shark? What spurred the change? A bad season? Your competitive nature, etc.?With me it was after winning my first title in 2005 after 8 years of FF. The next year my team was terrible -- the only losing season I've ever had. After that I studied all the FF strategy I could. Since 2007 I've won 4 more leagues.
:lmao: quality stuff here.
 
'just_want_2_win said:
How did you transform from a guppy to a shark? What spurred the change? A bad season? Your competitive nature, etc.?With me it was after winning my first title in 2005 after 8 years of FF. The next year my team was terrible -- the only losing season I've ever had. After that I studied all the FF strategy I could. Since 2007 I've won 4 more leagues.
Only 4?
Yeah, only 4 but that beats only 1 from 1998-2005. I generally only play in a couple of competitive leagues per year. And I took off last season because I had so much going on I didn't feel like I could give it my usual effort. I have a couple titles that I am especially fond of. The first was beating a former MLB player whose team went undefeated until the championship, which was an ugly, low scoring affair. The other was in a FF writer's league (IDP, no less -- my first time doing IDP) where I missed the draft and had to really scramble. I started with a collection of scraps initially but refused to throw in the towel and by the end I was deploying Arian Foster and Jabbar Gaffney (that was a 17 week league, too, the first and only one that I've been in). In another league where I didn't win it all, I started out terribly because of injuries but eventually reeled off 6 straight wins to finish the season and take my division on a tie break. One thing I've learned is that being aggressive has been the key. I was the first to jump on the likes of not only Foster but Colston and Jennings way back in the days. I don't think I'm the most astute drafter but I'm very good at working the waiver wire. However, I feel I have lots to learn still. That's why I come here to read the threads and even occasionally post something like this where I pose a question directly.
 
What do you call a guy who understands the concepts and used to be pretty darn good but hasn't put the time in lately to watch enough game tape to be as knowledgeable as is needed to still be a "shark"?
"Dad".
 
whether starting a QB-WR from the same team is beneficial or not under different circumstances.
Can you elaborate on that point :popcorn:
Doug Drinen did some work on the subject... dang, it's been over a dozen years now. I feel old. I don't know if the original article is still around, though there's a follow up to it that dealt with QB-RB and WR-WR here.The gist was that in theory playing a QB and WR from the same team would increase your variance... it would give you bigger swings up and down as that team having a good or bad day passing will affect your team more strongly. If you're the better team that would be a bad thing, since you'd rather both teams have an average day since your average day is better than the opponent's average day.

But if you're the lesser team, you'd rather have a lot of variance. Because if you're both average you lose, and a downswing you still lose against your opponents average day, and whether it's a big loss or a close loss doesn't matter that much. But if it's an upswing, then a big enough upswing can turn a loss into a win. So the underdog in a matchup would rather have a lot of variance in scoring.

He found that in theory, however, the amount you could expect it to help you was small enough as to probably be irrelevant compared to other factors in your decision of which players to start (overall quality of the players, their matchups, etc).

Used to be we had a lot of discussion about these kind of things. We don't see them as much anymore in part because a lot of the questions like this have been investigated already. I suppose there's a whole new crowd of owners though who could benefit from re-examining some of them.

 
whether starting a QB-WR from the same team is beneficial or not under different circumstances.
Can you elaborate on that point :popcorn:
Doug Drinen did some work on the subject... dang, it's been over a dozen years now. I feel old. I don't know if the original article is still around, though there's a follow up to it that dealt with QB-RB and WR-WR here.The gist was that in theory playing a QB and WR from the same team would increase your variance... it would give you bigger swings up and down as that team having a good or bad day passing will affect your team more strongly. If you're the better team that would be a bad thing, since you'd rather both teams have an average day since your average day is better than the opponent's average day.

But if you're the lesser team, you'd rather have a lot of variance. Because if you're both average you lose, and a downswing you still lose against your opponents average day, and whether it's a big loss or a close loss doesn't matter that much. But if it's an upswing, then a big enough upswing can turn a loss into a win. So the underdog in a matchup would rather have a lot of variance in scoring.

He found that in theory, however, the amount you could expect it to help you was small enough as to probably be irrelevant compared to other factors in your decision of which players to start (overall quality of the players, their matchups, etc).

Used to be we had a lot of discussion about these kind of things. We don't see them as much anymore in part because a lot of the questions like this have been investigated already. I suppose there's a whole new crowd of owners though who could benefit from re-examining some of them.
I suppose a situation like we had the first few weeks of this year would make for an ideal opportunity to buy combos from the Packers and Patriots. This is assuming that your league has fluid trade movement though, which isn't always the case if one guy just loves Brandon Lloyd or has been a Packers fan for life. If you thought that an offense was going to do unbelievably well one year, maybe drafting Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner could be beneficial. But is it really better than having drafted AJ Green over Julio? or Reggie Bush over Michael Turner?

I have Ryan in one league and just added Julio Jones so I guess ill be experiencing the ups and downs of Roddy Whites success for the rest of the year.

I have noticed that in my TD heavy league, some teams have Brees-Graham-Colston etc. and maybe in a format such as that one, where you naturally do encounter a lot of variance, it makes sense to have a setup such as this...

 
Sorry son, but I don't have to dumb down The Sport just so noobs like you have a chance at keeping up.I play in a $4,000 entry, Super-WCOFF, triple-reverse, double down, mirror league with a modified PPFDR base 8 scoring system, and we just held our draft in July. For the 2013 season. You think Matt Barkley getting the start in USC is news? I drafted him after studying up on him, after he signed his letter of intent, last year. You think that maybe going with a WR in the first two rounds instead of back-to-back RBs is somehow new thinking in fantasy? Well, do you have the balls to do what I did this year when I didn't take my first RB until the fourth round (Roderick Smith, Harding High School of Indiana)? You've probably never even heard of Martavis Bryant, Kyle Prater, or Darius White, yet not only did I draft them this year to form my future WR core, I've also started referring to them by fantasy board nicknames (Super Mart, KPrater, & DoubleDarius). Hell, guys like you are going to be the poor schmucks who are searching this board five years from now for info on some great RB you just heard of out of the middle of nowhere in Alaska, and the FBG search result box is going to come up with this very post, where I brag about nabbing Isaiah Weeks of the Monroe Catholic Rams at the 25.32/26.01 turn a full two months before he lit up Delta Junction for 193 yards/2 TDs or Ketchikan for 183 rushing yards, 55 rec yards, & 2 TDs. You'll be wondering about his durability and I'll remember a phone call I made back when you were just hearing the name "Knowshon Moreno" for the first time to the kid's doctor in Fairbanks about the sprain he suffered in his left ankle in 2008.Let me give you a tip, IT = INFO, and there's no "expires by" date on it.
:goodposting: :football:
 
If you draft Ryan Matthews at 1.04 after he was injured in pre season in a FBGPC league where the regular season is so short that if you do not start 2-2 or better you are toast.... That guy is not a shark

 
'just_want_2_win said:
How did you transform from a guppy to a shark? What spurred the change? A bad season? Your competitive nature, etc.?With me it was after winning my first title in 2005 after 8 years of FF. The next year my team was terrible -- the only losing season I've ever had. After that I studied all the FF strategy I could. Since 2007 I've won 4 more leagues.
Figured it out myself. Not to be high and mighty.But it was nice because there wasn't websites like these to teach you how to play, or drafts on websites that have the players ranked. In no way was any information easily obtainable. So someone like me who realized that taking RBs early rather than QBs because they score the most... usually exceled. It was nuts the value you could get in the 90s, it was guppy city, now the guppies are competitive. Still fun though. :popcorn:
 

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