Take away the Tenn game where he had 371 yards, 5 td and 1 int (the 27th ranked D, 26 pass) he doesn't look so good.
If we do take away that game, should we also take away Culpepper's only "good" start without Moss, when he got 363 yards and 4 TDs against the Green Bay D (25th against the pass)? Because if we do, then Culpepper average 204 yards and 1.25 TDs per game during the games when Moss was out.
Of course we won't take anything away. The point I was making is that several posters had supported their point with the argument that Collins was improving later in the season. Clearly he did not.That leaves Moss the only viable argument for Collins (to make such a drastic move up).
i don't know how else to interpret this but as contradictory...one of your refutations of my point was that if you throw out the TEN game with 5 TDs he... to use your words... doesn't look so good.
than in the next post you say of course we aren't taking anything away... than what was the point of your prior post if not trying to take something away, with obvious implication being that he isn't as good as the stats might suggest... maybe even that last years home stretch was flukey or an aberration.
let me preface what is about to follow by saying that i think this is a healthy debate... there are obviously a lot of intelligent, knowledgable posters... in a situation when a guy goes to a new team (& there may be lack of information about comp historical cases to base a judgement on), it is natural that people might see things differently & come to different conclusions.
the good thing about a healthy debate is it can be mind expanding & add from the insights of others to our own understanding. but in order to get to that place, one has to be open minded. they may in the end not change their mind, but they will at least have considered other, possibly better alternatives.
there are also certain protocols that can further debate, not only for ourselves, but for others that may be following along if not posting, & who may be in a position to see who puts forth the most well reasoned position... probably a blend of points will be considered...
anyway, one of those protocols is to talk about what the other person said, & not talk about what they didn't say... i'll try & pay you the same courtesy & respect. you really didn't address point that it might be logical to assume that collins could become better this season since this will be his first training camp as the incumbent starter, he will get more reps, & can become more familiar with his WRs in terms of timing, etc.
i didn't look into his game log with a pre-conceived notion... i just went searching to see if their was any pattern or non-random aspect to the season-long distribution of his stats. getting 3 X as many TDs in his second 7 game split compared to his first 7 game split seemed significant to me. one reason that i identified as possible, & it is not to say there couldn't be others (most complex phenomena are probably multi-valent :^) was the aforementioned one that he would expect to do better as he got familiar with scheme, system (terminology, getting plays called, out of huddle on time & players lined up right, etc.), familiar with his WRs (variable speed of players, nuances like where they catch the ball best, etc.).
your first attempt at "refuting" it was to say lets toss a game. than you backpedaled when it was pointed out that you could say the same about mcnabb. you could say the same about almost everybody... nobody had an exactly even distribution of TDs across the board. everybody on my list for best 7 game split that overlapped with collins... also volek, c-pepp, delhomme & we should include manning... had a 4-5 TD game (manning had a 6 TD game). so if we back out one, we have to back out all... but than everything is the same & we didn't extract any relevant information from that exercise so what was the point?
maybe your exercise had an underlying, latent but implicit premise that TEN wasn't really a very good defense, so stats garnered in that game may not be so meaningful or relevant for purposes of projection?
but that idea is a fallacy because the reality is that there are a lot of bad defenses in the NFL... mcnabb or c-pepp lit up GB for 5 TDs... it does happen. in TEN case they lost both starting safeties (schulters & tank williams, though lamont thompson may have beaten out schulters anyway) for good part of the year to IR, & i think samari rolle was banged up, one of best cover CBs in league... also nickle back whose name escaped me but was first rounder few seasons ago & is CB1 this season.
in GB case, they never got adequate replacement for mckenzie after he held out & was traded, all-pro darren sharper wan banged up constantly & SS import mark roman was a collosal bust.
but these kind of things happen... to suggest throwing out a 5 TD game because a team had injuries would be to suggest that injuries don't happen, or that teams don't suffer positional attrition through multiple injuries on occasion. this kind of thing happens ALL THE TIME.
the more closely i look at moss, the more things i find i like... so in that sense, thanks for prompting the more detailed & involved level of scrutiny. look at the safeties in the afc west... terrence kiel & ah choo of SD, dwight smith & wood/wesley for KC, lynch & ferguson... is there anyone who really has scary coverage ability for a safety... maybe smith is pretty good athlete, but other than that?
afc west opponents (KC, SD, DEN) all have formidable offenses... it could be like a shooting gallery in the 2005. we also have to factor in the emphasis on calling 5 yard chuck rule, whick led to manning & gates breaking positional record, & scoring being up league wide, but nobody has commented on much in this context. maybe because it could be a factor pointing collins & moss doing better this season.
the next point you attempted to "refute" was in saying there was no evidence to suggest that collins did better in second half. i'll give you the benefit of doubt & assume you misunderstood post & weren't engaging in rhetorical equivalent of misdirection. what about the getting 3 X as many TDs in his second half part. you completely glossed over what i DID talk about. you made other comments or put forth stats about things i DIDN'T talk about... i never mentioned anything about QB rating, completions, yardage.
wouldn't you admit, at least at a minimum, that the raiders & collins were more efficient in the red zone with their passing game in the second half?
this is a very important point. if you think collins will only do a little better than the raiders combined 24 TDs last season, than this will drive the projections in a more conservative direction. colins will than have to fall further to become good value. if you think, depite what history implies about the difficulty & unliklihood of it happening, collins could get 32+ TDs in a given season, than that will point to more optimistic projection, & collins will not have to drop as far where at a certain point he offers compelling value.
you haven't really said what you think collins will do in terms of TD production... neither have i... it is probably clear that i am optimistic... since three guys did it last season (actually mcnabb got to 31, but most think he would have gotten more than 1 more if they hadn't tied an nfl record for divisional margin of victory with dolphins & steelers), i think 32 is doable with moss in the fold.
you did make it clear you don't think collins will fall flat on his face & could crack top 10, but he may need to be be top 5 to represent good value, & you don't see him doing that. fair enough, & actually a lot of people said something similar... i am in the minority... i wouldn't be averse to being open minded & changing viewpoints, i am actually lloking for a good reason to be more bullish & conservative, i just don't feel like i have been given any compelling reasons to do so.
i am not so sure collins ADP is top 5, at least not now. rather than speculate about that, wouldn't it be easier for everybody to just stop throwing around a guestimate number like 5... maybe it wil be 6... or 7... or 8 in some leagues? who knows... probably will be different in many leagues. everybody just needs to stack their QB board, figure out where he is (about 5 on mine, sounds like closer to 10 on yours)... than draft accordingly... if he drops to 7-8 i jump on him, you don't.
one argument is that there will be one in every crowd that will snag collins early so he doesn't represent good value... can't we say this about a few QBs.... there will be one in every crowd that drafts bulger, green, favre, brees early... but that doesn't add up... not everybody in every draft can get all these guys at QB5, so something has to budge... collins could very easily drop to 7-8 in some drafts, & might represent value there... dependding on each persons projections.
but clearly you will have to come to terms with what you think to expect on his TDs in '5, whether you think they will remain unchanged, raise a little, a lot? since you completely ignored the dramatic TD increase in second half (actually the sequence was you dismissed it, than you backpedaled while trying to claim you weren't backpedaling, but never really addressed it in any kind of constructive way where we could even meet in the middle or agree to disagree).
the increased red zone efficiency which i was highlighting & you tried to dismiss as flukey or in fact so unimportant as to not even be discussed is crucially important. the raiders could be around the red zone a lot more with moss & jordan helping to get more first downs, sustained drives, big plays downfield, making others around them better by helping them get more open. once they do get to the red zone more often, moss is one of the top red zone weapons in the game, probably in the history of the game. and defenses don't like to hold in the end zone... ball automatcally gets spotted on the one yard line, & refs are looking closely for that penalty in the end zone. not saying you said this, but elsewhere on the thread some have said not to expect too much from collins/moss becuase they didn't have a RB last season & now they do.
but why would al davis, a guy that historically loves to use the vertical attack, trade for one of the top WRs in history of game... to hand the ball off to his RB 400+ times? it doesn't add up.
i think the linear, historical based proponents in the crowd sometimes get exasperated with the non-linear, a-historical advocates & think we are being reckless & overly optimistic. & vive verce, where we think the other side is being stubborn & unnecessarily conservative... probably the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
but i still have yet to find a convincing argument from the other side to think just becuase collins had low TDs in past, he will this year, too. other than one season in which he had 22, b4 '04 his previos career high was 19... which he twice did, both times in 16 games. he got 16 in just his last 7 games alone... WITHOUT MOSS.
if you look as closely at the team game logs as you did at collins, you will find that there defense is ABOMINABLE. in the offseason they lose one of their best players in nap harris, ted washington & sapp are combined 69 years old, they get gibson back but he has been a bust & disappointment, they added derrick burgess who was a disappointment for the most part in PHI & may be playing in new position as 3-4 LB some of the time... i just don't see how they got a lot better. they do look very much like teams like IND, MIN & KC that have tremendous offenses coupled with sub-par defenses... another factor to point towards optimistic projections, in the absence of compelling reasons from other side stating why this isn't the case... ie - why OAK will have a different & better defense with any kind of substantively increased stopping power?
a last question for the historians...
how would manning have done last season if his two best targets were amani toomer & ike hilliard?
how would collins have done if he had been able to throw to randy moss & cris carter, or harrison, wayne & stokely for much of his career.
think about it.
Your point with Collins was that he put up some stinkers. I'm just pointing out that all QBs put up stinkers.
