What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Hurricane Sandy (3 Viewers)

Gawain

Gawain

Footballguy
While hurricane season extends until November 30th, it is still pretty rare to have a strong storm gearing up for the Northeast.

My link

Our computer models are slowly getting into better agreement that hurricane Sandy will pay someone in the northeast a visit by early next week. The threat area for a direct hit stretches from North Carolina all the way to Nova Scotia.

The giant “block” that we’ve been talking about over the Atlantic Ocean appears strong enough to prevent the hurricane from sliding east and out to sea.

The block itself is what’s called a Rex block. Rex blocks occur when a ridge of high pressure exists poleward of a cut-off low pressure. These patterns are somewhat stable and slow to change. To the west of the Rex block a ridge of high pressure (red dashed line) is nosing up from the Caribbean to the north Atlantic. This ridge is effectively preventing Sandy from losing too much longitude as it heads to the north.
Click to expand...
There are one or two models that have Sandy moving to the east, but the vast majority have Sandy hitting somewhere along the eastern seaboard.As someone who was in Irene's evacuation area, I'm keeping my eye on her.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
'Bottomfeeder Sports said:
'Gawain said:
While hurricane season extends until November 30th, it is still pretty rare to have a strong storm gearing up for the Northeast.
Click to expand...
Maybe not tropical storms, but I am not sure that "strong storms" being rare is all that true.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I misspoke. Having grown up on the south shore of Lake Ontario, I've seen a few strong storms. The blizzard of 1993 gave us something stupid, like three-and-a-half feet of snow in a couple days. Tropical storms are pretty rare.The guys on americanwx are going all Mr. ham about this storm.
 
'Gawain said:
'Bottomfeeder Sports said:
'Gawain said:
While hurricane season extends until November 30th, it is still pretty rare to have a strong storm gearing up for the Northeast.
Click to expand...
Maybe not tropical storms, but I am not sure that "strong storms" being rare is all that true.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I misspoke. Having grown up on the south shore of Lake Ontario, I've seen a few strong storms. The blizzard of 1993 gave us something stupid, like three-and-a-half feet of snow in a couple days. Tropical storms are pretty rare.The guys on americanwx are going all Mr. ham about this storm.
Click to expand...
Well it is all relative of course. Once or twice a year could be rare to some people. Once a decade could be way too frequent. My point wasn't too make you look bad, but more simply say that the threat of Hurricane Sandy is really similar to that of a Nor'easter which are either real common or real rare or somewhere in between depending on one's perspective. More importantly for this region a storm can form in the gulf and be riding up the coast with hurricane like impact in less than a week at any time of the year. So keep up with that milk, bread, and toilet paper. Oh and it should go without saying :banned:
 
Breaking Weather News: The National Hurricane Center is reporting that Hurricane Sandy has gone through a stunning intensification process over the last few hours. Sandy, now located near the eastern portion of Cuba, now has maximum sustained winds of 90mph with a new central pressure of 954 mb.

 
At least Fox 5 isn't trying to fan the flames. Their lead-in for the story, "Scientists Fear Storms Could Combine To Create Giant Storm Over Our Area."

Guess our American scientists learned from their Italian brethren.

 
As of now, they prettymuch have it hitting the Northeast. Irene did a ton of damage here (Hudson Valley, NY) and in VT.

1 storm like this is rare enough. Two years in a row? Never seen that before.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I live 50 yards or so from the ocean in New Jersey, I'm not too thrilled about Sandy. I was without power for close to a week after an Irene spun tornado took out our transformer.

 
Good news and not-so-good news. Sandy strengthened significantly and made landfall in Cuba as a strong category 2 with 110mph winds. Thoughts go to all who are going through it now.

However, there still looks like a possibility for Sandy to slide east into the Atlantic and present no threat after passing the Bahamas.

 
Sandy's strengthened quite a bit since Wednesday evening when I checked around 8pm and the max sustained winds were at 75 mph. An increase of 35mph or almost 50% in 8 hours is unusual for a hurricane this late in the season.

 
Strong as it may be doesn't it look most likely that this heads off into the eat and never touches the US?

 
'comfortably numb said:
Are these guys just over doing in hopes they don't get locked up for 6 years?
Click to expand...
The Washington Post has a really great weather blog. Here's the Sandy write-up.
There is a consensus forming in weather forecast models that hurricane Sandy is unlikely to go out to sea. Instead, it more likely will merge with a strong fall cold front and transition into a powerhouse, possibly historic mid-latitude storm along the mid-Atlantic and/or Northeast coast Sunday through Wednesday. ...

Models disagree on where the storm will recurve and make landfall: simulations vary from the mid-Atlantic to Maine. There remains a chance, though diminishing, the storm will slide harmlessly out to sea. ...

This storm will be a slow mover meaning large waves may pound the coast for lengthy time periods. Not to mention, the wind and waves will raise the water level, bringing ashore a multiple foot storm surge in regions close to where the storm makes landfall (assuming it does so).

Making matters worse, the storm will coincide with a full moon Monday night, meaning elevated tides above normal levels. Astronomically high tides have played a key role in historic coastal flooding events along the East Coast, such as the Ash Wednesday storm of March, 1962.

Finally, snow may be an issue at high elevation in the interior mid-Atlantic and Northeast as cold air pours down on the storm’s west and southwest flank. Some models suggest over a foot of heavy, wet snow could fall in places like western Maryland and central and western Pennsylvania. This amount of snow on top of existing foliage could result in tremendous tree damage and power outages.
Click to expand...
 
This is pretty exciting.

Interesting to note that, in one of our mildest winters ever here in Maryland, we got snow for Halloween last year.

 
Winds were whipping around so hard on my balcony this morning that it woke me up. Might have to drag the patio furniture inside for a day or so.

 
'The_Man said:
'comfortably numb said:
Are these guys just over doing in hopes they don't get locked up for 6 years?
Click to expand...
The Washington Post has a really great weather blog. Here's the Sandy write-up.
There is a consensus forming in weather forecast models that hurricane Sandy is unlikely to go out to sea. Instead, it more likely will merge with a strong fall cold front and transition into a powerhouse, possibly historic mid-latitude storm along the mid-Atlantic and/or Northeast coast Sunday through Wednesday. ...

Models disagree on where the storm will recurve and make landfall: simulations vary from the mid-Atlantic to Maine. There remains a chance, though diminishing, the storm will slide harmlessly out to sea. ...

This storm will be a slow mover meaning large waves may pound the coast for lengthy time periods. Not to mention, the wind and waves will raise the water level, bringing ashore a multiple foot storm surge in regions close to where the storm makes landfall (assuming it does so).

Making matters worse, the storm will coincide with a full moon Monday night, meaning elevated tides above normal levels. Astronomically high tides have played a key role in historic coastal flooding events along the East Coast, such as the Ash Wednesday storm of March, 1962.

Finally, snow may be an issue at high elevation in the interior mid-Atlantic and Northeast as cold air pours down on the storm’s west and southwest flank. Some models suggest over a foot of heavy, wet snow could fall in places like western Maryland and central and western Pennsylvania. This amount of snow on top of existing foliage could result in tremendous tree damage and power outages.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
:sadbanana:
 
It's not even making landfall in the US, gonna stay out over the Bahamas. We are getting a lot of rain here n South Florida today but nothing we haven't seen before. Nothing to see here.

 
East Coast FBGs: follow Jeff Masters' postings on Weather Undergound. Jeff Masters Blog That link is to yesterday's post, but he should have an update in the next 2 hours or so. He is deadly accurate. Listen to his advice. This New Orleans boy has relied on Masters' analysis since 2004. He's the one who told me to GTFO of N.O. the Friday before Katrina hit, about 24 hours before the NWS, NHC and local authorities.

"If the trough of low pressure approaching the East Coast taps into the large reservoir of cold air over Canada and pulls down a significant amount of Arctic air, as predicted, the potential exists for the unusually moist air from Sandy to collide with this cold air from Canada and unleash the heaviest October rains ever recorded in the Northeast U.S. Another huge concern is storm surge flooding. Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 300 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding."

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I finally just went ahead and pulled the trigger on buying a generator. We were without power for 5 or 6 days this summer over the 4th of July in the wake of Hurricane Irene. We probably threw away more in food from our freezer than it would have cost to buy a generator then.

Got a small, 4000 watt for $299 with free shipping from Amazon. That will be enough for the fridge, TV and some lights, and to charge electronic devices.

Our neighborhood always loses power - I figure by doing this, I'm guaranteeing the lights stay on for the entire storm.

 
Wow, the usually very conservative Hydrometerological Prediction Center just went all-in with FRANKENSTORM!

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

942 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

VALID 12Z MON OCT 29 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 01 2012

...HIGH IMPACT MERGING OF ENERGETIC SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OFF THE

MID ATLANTIC COAST...

PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION'S

SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH

HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR

TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO

A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE

ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO

TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD

SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN,

INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE

LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC

CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS.

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, WHEN ONE PART OF THE NATION IS EXPERIENCING

A VERY ENERGETIC ATMOSPHERE DISTURBANCE, THE REMAINDER IS

RELATIVELY CALM. THIS EVENT SHOULD NOT PROVE THE EXCEPTION, WITH A

FAIRLY BENIGN FEED OF PACIFIC AIR INTO MOST OF THE WESTERN AND

CENTRAL STATES. THE FAR WEST, PARTICULAR NORTH OF CALIFORNIA, WILL

HAVE ENOUGH SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE PERIOD WET AND

UNSETTLED.
Click to expand...
 
'The_Man said:
I finally just went ahead and pulled the trigger on buying a generator. We were without power for 5 or 6 days this summer over the 4th of July in the wake of Hurricane Irene. We probably threw away more in food from our freezer than it would have cost to buy a generator then.Got a small, 4000 watt for $299 with free shipping from Amazon. That will be enough for the fridge, TV and some lights, and to charge electronic devices.Our neighborhood always loses power - I figure by doing this, I'm guaranteeing the lights stay on for the entire storm.
Click to expand...
:thumbup: I have one and my town loses power frequently.I was the most popular guy on the block the last few storms with people bringing their extension cords over to my house.
 
Just rescheduled my flight from Philly to Boston on Monday. Looks like there's a very good chance this will one of those 2 cities hard and I didn't want to get stuck.

This sucks.

 
Weatherboy on Facebook has been pretty accurate over the years. https://www.facebook.com/theWeatherboyhttps://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152237871675122&set=a.261480430121.304779.127583470121&type=1

More data and analysis continues to stream in on Hurricane Sandy. This data is increasing confidence in the likelihood of a Mid Atlantic / New England strike and it appears Delaware/New Jersey/New York could see the worst effects from it.It is essential people throughout the region get their preparation plans in order; by tomorrow, it may be necessary to begin to act on those plans. In addition to hurricane-force conditions at the coast and inland, it is also becoming likely that enough cold air will filter into this system to produce exceptionally heavy snows and blizzard-like conditions in at least the higher terrain of PA/WV/MD and perhaps even a broader area that that. As additional data is digested by forecast models and meteorologists today, a more clear forecast picture will be made tomorrow. If you were evacuated in New Jersey or New York from Hurricane Irene last year, it is also becoming likely you will be evacuated again from this storm. The effects of Sandy could be more severe than they were from Irene, with heavier rain, stronger winds and a wider area of stronger winds, and the threat of heavy inland snows while coastal sections are battered by violent surf and storm surge. The latest forecast map from the National Hurricane Center brings the center of Sandy to the central New Jersey coast for a landfall there early Tuesday. However, this is a huge storm and effects from the storm should reach the area as early as Sunday and linger well beyond when the center passes by.
Click to expand...
 
Holy snap, National Hurricane Center continues to shift things way west and onshore. Latest projection gives NYC a landfall feel for Tuesday.

That being said, they keep moving things west, so the Mid-Atlantic might still end up in the bullseye by the time Monday gets here. Forecast discussion kind of alludes to that ongoing shift:

SANDY SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY AND SLOW DOWN AS IT TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON

FRIDAY WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW.

SANDY SHOULD THEN TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY 72 HOURS AHEAD OF A

LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER

THAT TIME...THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A

NORTHWESTWARD TURN AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE

TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN

SIGNIFICANT DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THIS

INTERACTION AND WHERE THE NORTHWEST TURN WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF AND

GFDL MODELS SHOW A QUICKER TURN...BRINGING THE CENTER INLAND BY DAY

5. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE GRADUAL TURN

WITH THE CENTER STILL OFFSHORE AT 120 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST HAS

BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND LIES ABOUT HALFWAY

BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CLOSE TO THE ECMWF

ENSEMBLE MEAN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF SANDY...IT

IS LIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF

THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NOTE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES ARE NOT

DESIGNED TO HANDLE THE TYPE OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES ANTICIPATED WITH

SANDY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THESE PROBABILITIES

WILL UNDERESTIMATE THE ACTUAL RISK OF STRONG WINDS AWAY FROM THE

CENTER OF SANDY.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
'Jojo the circus boy said:
The perfect storm?Full Moon, Hurricane Sandy from the South, Arctic Canadian airflow from the North - look out Maine.
Click to expand...
Actually, it looks like the Appalachians will probably see the most snow. Thinking (from one model forecast) is about 2' in southwestern PA, northeastern WV.
 
'The_Man said:
Holy snap, National Hurricane Center continues to shift things way west and onshore.
Click to expand...
Because they tend to rely on GFS (american model) more than the ECMWF (Euro) and the GFS is not as good at long range, but does really well in the 3 day range. So as it gets closer the GFS usually trends towards the Euro.
 
'3C said:
'The_Man said:
Holy snap, National Hurricane Center continues to shift things way west and onshore.
Click to expand...
Because they tend to rely on GFS (american model) more than the ECMWF (Euro) and the GFS is not as good at long range, but does really well in the 3 day range. So as it gets closer the GFS usually trends towards the Euro.
Click to expand...
I think the forecasters, especially those at the NHC, do a nice job of laying out the preliminary range of scenarios and then gradually homing in on a specific forecast in the 1-3 day range. With Sandy, they've been saying all along that impacts along the East Coast are possible, but that it could also still go out to sea.Now, with each subsequent model run, they're getting more and more vocal about the likelihood of impacts up and down the East Coast. Another couple of days from now, they'll really start to ring the alarm bells - if conditions warrant - about specific times and locations.Historic storms are by definition very rare, so you always have to assume they're probably not going to happen. But the NHC has left open the possibility for such a storm next week and will continue to talk more and more about it, if it looks like it's going to happen.
 
GL to everyone up North

As far as it goes here on HHI, Lake Atlantic will see the best swells of the year - 8 to 10+

:pickle:

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND

SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE

INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

COASTAL HAZARDS...SUBSTANTIAL SWELLS GENERATED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE

SANDY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COAST TONIGHT... CONTINUING TO

BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY. DURING THIS

TIME...HIGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AND DANGEROUS

RIP CURRENTS WILL BECOME LIKELY ALONG THE COAST. IN

ADDITION...BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 
'NutterButter said:
If this means another mild winter, I say bring it on. I'll get the genny ready this weekend.
Click to expand...
Screw that. Last winter was mild and insect populations tripled around here. We've had the pest control guy out around 5 times in the last 3 months to treat the house. Hoping for a nice freeze this winter to wipe out those little bastards.
 
I am not sure what to do expect, given where I love (Northeastern PA). I mean, we got remnants from Irene last August, and it wasnt pretty. If the eye of the storm stays out near the Atlantic, what does that mean for us that are hundreds of miles inland?

 
'The_Man said:
'3C said:
'The_Man said:
Holy snap, National Hurricane Center continues to shift things way west and onshore.
Click to expand...
Because they tend to rely on GFS (american model) more than the ECMWF (Euro) and the GFS is not as good at long range, but does really well in the 3 day range. So as it gets closer the GFS usually trends towards the Euro.
Click to expand...
I think the forecasters, especially those at the NHC, do a nice job of laying out the preliminary range of scenarios and then gradually homing in on a specific forecast in the 1-3 day range. With Sandy, they've been saying all along that impacts along the East Coast are possible, but that it could also still go out to sea.Now, with each subsequent model run, they're getting more and more vocal about the likelihood of impacts up and down the East Coast. Another couple of days from now, they'll really start to ring the alarm bells - if conditions warrant - about specific times and locations.Historic storms are by definition very rare, so you always have to assume they're probably not going to happen. But the NHC has left open the possibility for such a storm next week and will continue to talk more and more about it, if it looks like it's going to happen.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:
 
The mentioned cold front will be trucking through the St. Louis area tonight at around 6 PM or so. Temps will drop 20 degrees very, very quickly.

It sounds like this cold front will smack right into Sandy just around the time it'll be making landfall. Yikes. Perfect Storm indeed.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Ministry of Pain
One Bite Pizza Reviews on Youtube
2
Replies
53
Views
3K
Ministry of Pain
Ministry of Pain
mr. furley
Long Island serial killer suspect in custody
Replies
34
Views
2K
Dezbelief
Dezbelief
GordonGekko
Do You Believe That The Modern "Tipping" Culture Has Gone Completely Out Of Control? (1/30)
6 7 8
Replies
371
Views
21K
Hastur
Hastur

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 3 (members: 0, guests: 3)
Back
Top