Incoherent RB thread aimed at ADP(draft slot) vs return. (1 Viewer)

[Mr Non Sequitur]

I'm not very good at thread starters and I try to find other threads with similar topics but I'll try and start this food for thought and see where it ends up. We want to look at RB values for those that perhaps don't invest early. I definitely am open to going RB-RB in rounds 1 and 2 if the right combo can be had. I feel like I can catch up at some other positions but RB can be very tricky. And yet I am finding a lot of RBs in decent situations with a lot of talent around them but due to age, wear n tear, down 2013 season(love those) and we are strictly talking redraft. Leave those dynasty caps at the door please, thank you.

Best to just jump in and you'll see what I mean. I want RBs in the 4th-5th round or later and talk about which if any are likely to exceed their draft spots.

Atlanta

Steven Jackson: 6th-8th round ADP

D.Freeman: 10th-11th

We can discuss what Quizz can do but I simply pencil him in for 40-50 receptions and a few touches but he is not lead back material so let's just leave him alone for now. These 2 backs, one of them is going to emerge as the guy who can get the goal line work and also the between the Tackles plays. If Jackson is healthy then he will surely get about 240-275 carries plus IMO he would rack up 8-10 TDs on the ground as Atlanta has 2 fine weapons and perhaps even 3 at WR and Atlanta can set up some short fields.

I also like the defense in Atlanta, you may ask WTH does that matter but it means the Falcons' offense won't be sitting on the sidelines for long stretches IMHO. Soliai and another dude they brought in are shutting down the running lanes and trust me Soliai is a huge improvement over what they had, the DLine in Atlanta will be much improved, turnovers and short fields make easy points. Don't let the 2013 4-12 Atlanta Falcons cloud your brain, they won't repeat the same pathetic display in 2014 IMHO.

Bottom Line: You wait on RB and then you scoop up SJax in the 7th, grab Freeman in the 9th, 10th and you have a cheap investment that is likely to pay some dividends.

This is one example, I have several more, you all will want to post some values you feel are important, all is welcome in the thread. Let's roll on to a few more teams.

New England

Stevan Ridley: 6th-7th

James White: 15th-18th round and climbing.

OK, let's talk here. Where is Shane Vereen? I accept that he is a big part of the short passing game and will rack up some receptions. What I doubt highly is that he comes anywhere close to the 468 carries and 20 rushing TDs Ridley has amassed the last 2 seasons(look it up). Anyone penciling him in as the RB1 and not a flex type is somewhat foolish. I know Ridley landed in the dog house but the pot of gold in NE is similar to Atlanta where someone in that backfield is likely to rush for 10-12 TDs.

I'm not gonna oversell Ridley and I accept he was benched at times, might lose his starting job or the role of 15+ carries a game between the Tackles and goal line work. I feel the Ridley/White combo for RB2 is a decent strategy. One of them will become the bellcow in this offense and I like the retail price here.

Baltimore

Ray Rice 5th-6th

Bernard Pierce 9th-10th

Rice is gonna have a chip on his shoulder so big it would make Ray Lewis blush. I'm not even sure I have to draft Pierce here except for the 2 game suspension. If you can live without Rice for 2-3 weeks(assume 1st week back is not a full workload) you could have a potential top10 RB the rest of the way. I know the OL is not great, the Ravens are not close to what they were a couple seasons ago but for the price and where you can get Rice and what you likely have already drafted by waiting to snatch him up as your RB2, this is a potential game changer pick IMO. There is still a ceiling with SJax and Ridley, Rice could have a much higher ceiling if things break the right way for him come week 3.

New York Jets

Chris Johnson: 4th-5th and climbing

Chris Ivory: 11th and later

Rex came out yesterday and let it be known that ground and pound is back and being led by Chris Johnson. I am a huge jock supporter of Chris Johnson, I run into the locker room and try to find his jockstrap after every practice, does that satisfy you?

Seriously though, Johnson has rushing attempt totals far less than what I was expecting. Last 3 seasons he has 262/276/279 or roughly between 16-18 carries a game, not bad. And he has reception totals of 43, 50, 44, 57, 36, and 42 plus TN never seemed to make a conscious effort to get him the ball out of the backfield. The Jets have come out and said they want to get the ball to Johnson, LISTEN TO THEM!!! There are times you get a chance to take some free money sort of speak in these re-drafts, don't allow personal bias or taking CJ a little early the last 3-4 years sway you from what you can plainly see in front of you. Here, let me get you a fork n knife, you'll love it.

Those are the easy ones to spot IMO. I have several more I will post about in here. This will give us something to get started on. Just to be clear, I was trying to come at this from the POV that we have an anchor in the water in the 1st or 2nd, take any RB that is your flavor and then look at these guys as potential RB2 or even a solid RB3 for some that have 1-2 flex spots on rosters and can line up 3 or 4 wide at RB.

 

[MattFancy]

I'd add:

Rashad Jennings/Andre Williams

MJD/DMC

Bell/Riddick

Mathews/Brown

Miller/Moreno

FJax/Bryce Brown

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Here is a situation everyone is interested in but I think is one to steer clear of.

Miami

Moreno: 8th

Miller: 9th

The OL is in shambles right now up the middle. Shelly Smith, Nate Garner, Sam Brenner and probably 4-5 other guys you have never heard of. A rookie RT who some feel was a reach in the 1st, especially if you expect him to hold pass protection when defenses know Miami has no OL up the middle, good luck setting Tannehill up in the pocket.

Guys are running to grab one of these 2 guys and I think you are better off passing. Both could have some small moments but the likelihood Miami ends up somewhere in the 5-11 to 8-8 range is pretty accurate and things could get much worse if this OL is anything like what Arizona had a couple years ago, think about that when you want to grab one of these guys. Too many other attractive packages in the middle rounds to get excited about this.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Here is another one where I see a lot of talent but not sure if they can get it together.

Oakland

MJD: 8th

DMC 9th

I do like the price and I could see coming up on the tun of the 8th/9th, either end of the draft and you waited for RB2, you have a solid RB1, QB and TE plus 3-4 outstanding WR selections, now you need that RB2, grab these 2 guys expecting to be able to find 8-10 quality games between the 2 of them. I think both will have their moments but DMC will not be asked to be the lead dog here.

Could be a yucky split but I think DMC will get 8-10 good touches a game as long as he is healthy including receptions with MJD, the short passing game for Oak and Schaub should be good to go. I like this situation a lot better than the Miami one on offense.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

I'd add:

Rashad Jennings/Andre Williams

MJD/DMC

Bell/Riddick

Mathews/Brown

Miller/Moreno

FJax/Bryce Brown

Thanks for adding some names. Bell is Mid-2nd and while I like him, I feel he is in a different box than some of these others due to the 2nd round price tag. But you like him and that's good. I gotta think about Jennings and Mathews but on the surface I agree, well worth discussion.

 

[Touchdown There]

I agree with you on Ray Rice. I was lucky enough to draw the first overall pick in a redraft last week and went went with Calvin, just because I like to reduce risk in the first round. Took Ray Rice at 5.01.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

I agree with you on Ray Rice. I was lucky enough to draw the first overall pick in a redraft last week and went went with Calvin, just because I like to reduce risk in the first round. Took Ray Rice at 5.01.

Interesting, was he your 1st RB off the board? Can you share who you paired him with? Not your whole draft but maybe your RB1, RB2, and RB3 including the rounds you drafted would be good for discussion.

 

[MattFancy]

I'd add:

Rashad Jennings/Andre Williams

MJD/DMC

Bell/Riddick

Mathews/Brown

Miller/Moreno

FJax/Bryce Brown

Thanks for adding some names. Bell is Mid-2nd and while I like him, I feel he is in a different box than some of these others due to the 2nd round price tag. But you like him and that's good. I gotta think about Jennings and Mathews but on the surface I agree, well worth discussion.

I mean Joquie Bell. He's been going after Reggie, but I think he'll finish higher than Reggie. You can also take Theo Riddick in the last round and be assured of most rushing yards for Detroit.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

New Orleans

Pierre Thomas: 7th

K.Robinson: 9th/10th

I know Ingram is still there and flashed a little last year but I just believe NO is a terrible spot for a RB who runs 1st and catches 2nd. Pirre Thomas could always catch the ball but he has morphed his game the last couple seasons to do whatever NO needs him to. I definitely feel he will see plenty of action, but as always there is a major cap to what he will do. He has a career best 77 receptions last year, more than Sproles who clocked in at 74 receptions. The Saints spread about 150 balls across the backs last year, not sure I can see a repeat coming.

Thomas is gonna have about 120 carries for roughly 500-600 yds on the ground and another 50 receptions for close to about 1,000 total yards which has done or come close to in 5 of the last 6 seasons in NO. What do you think he will do this year? 77 receptions was a career best but another 50 receptions is not hard to grasp. I'll give him 900 rush/rec, 50 receptions, and 4 TDs. Is that worth a 7th? Perhaps.

Robinson will give you another back there who is younger and could possibly breakout if Thomas(29 yrs old) were to go down with an injury.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Cleveland

Ben Tate: 5th

T.West: 9th

The Browns are so all over the place but they have a solid OL in some spots, they might not be toothless in the receiving department all season. There are a lot of questions but it seems like most are willing to roll the dice on Tate in the 5th. I think West in the 9th is only from seasoned owners who have been playing redrafts the last 8-10 years, most folks have never even heard of West at your local Hooters redraft leagues around town. I would like this better if Tate were a 6th or 7th, West more in the 12th or later range. Not sure why folks are so intrigued with the Browns backfield but perhaps others in here can share their differing POV on this.

Another situation that I don't like is...

Carolina

DeAngelo: 9th

Stewart: 13th

Tolbert: ???

I feel strongly I saw DeAngelo lose a step last year. I am not optimistic he finds lightning in a bottle this year, he looked like an aging back last year IMO. Stewart teases you and he already is hurt, year 7 now on a lengthy injury report for him that many teams would have closed the book a while ago but Carolina invested roughly $80-$90M in the 2 RBs and ever since those last contracts the production has been average at best here. Cam eats up rushing yds and TDs that would go to many backs on other teams.

The investment is not much bt the rewards don't seem to be there. Take Tolbert late late late and if Stewart is injured and DeAngleo is ineffective, Tolbert can be the guy to come out of these games with box scores looking like this: Tolbert has 14 TDs in Carolina in 2 seasons and 35 over the last 4 seasons dating back to San Diego where Ron Rivera coached at the time, albeit NOT the HC but still. Rivera likes Tolbert, is comfortable with him, trusts him, grab him for nothing as a bye week filler and should he have to carry the load more there you have so little invested. he is a great RB4/5 off your bench for bye weeks. You might get lucky and snare a couple TDs.

Tolbert racked 54 receptions in 2011 for SD, this team is thirsty for receivers or guys who can catch the ball, Tolbert may find his way onto the field more this year.

 

[Touchdown There]

I agree with you on Ray Rice. I was lucky enough to draw the first overall pick in a redraft last week and went went with Calvin, just because I like to reduce risk in the first round. Took Ray Rice at 5.01.

Interesting, was he your 1st RB off the board? Can you share who you paired him with? Not your whole draft but maybe your RB1, RB2, and RB3 including the rounds you drafted would be good for discussion.

When I went WR first overall, I knew I had to take an RB at every major turn:

2.12 Le'Veon Bell - Not sold on his talent or speed, but think the Steeler's will get him a bunch of carries

5.01 Ray Rice

7.01 Cristine Michael - Risk\reward play with the holdout news

8.12 McFadden - Two old men @ RB for Oakland, one of them is bound to get hurt (probably McFadden)

10.12 Tre Mason - I do not expect Mason to beat out Zac Stacy, but like Mason enough to take a shot

12.12 David Wilson - (before new neck injury news)

13.01 Khiry Robinson - Shot in the dark

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Not bad TT, I have some biases in there but Bell on the 2/3 turn is solid, he has been going as early as the top of the 2nd. I like the Bell/Rice combo.

Michael/Mason/Robinson, have a feeling one of them will emerge as your RB3 pushing for RB2 time if they can really get it together. McFadden and Wilson I am not as high on. I might have liked MJD to pair with DMC only because of the rest of the team. But if Bell and Rice are healthy you have a solid 1-2 combo at RB and anything you get form the rest will be bonus. In a 12 team league if you have solid options in the RB1 and RB2 spot, you usually are good to go at RB.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Here is another one where I see a lot of talent but not sure if they can get it together.

Oakland

MJD: 8th

DMC 9th

I do like the price and I could see coming up on the tun of the 8th/9th, either end of the draft and you waited for RB2, you have a solid RB1, QB and TE plus 3-4 outstanding WR selections, now you need that RB2, grab these 2 guys expecting to be able to find 8-10 quality games between the 2 of them. I think both will have their moments but DMC will not be asked to be the lead dog here.

Could be a yucky split but I think DMC will get 8-10 good touches a game as long as he is healthy including receptions with MJD, the short passing game for Oak and Schaub should be good to go. I like this situation a lot better than the Miami one on offense.

Absolutely love the Ray Rice call. He has a cake playoff schedule as well.

The Oakland situation could pay off as well, if you can get the right back. Problem is, no one knows who that is right now. You almost have to snag both of them to see. I would think that if I had to choose only one it would be MJD, as I think he will get the goal line love (if there is any in Oakland.....LOL)

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Here is another one where I see a lot of talent but not sure if they can get it together.

Oakland

MJD: 8th

DMC 9th

I do like the price and I could see coming up on the tun of the 8th/9th, either end of the draft and you waited for RB2, you have a solid RB1, QB and TE plus 3-4 outstanding WR selections, now you need that RB2, grab these 2 guys expecting to be able to find 8-10 quality games between the 2 of them. I think both will have their moments but DMC will not be asked to be the lead dog here.

Could be a yucky split but I think DMC will get 8-10 good touches a game as long as he is healthy including receptions with MJD, the short passing game for Oak and Schaub should be good to go. I like this situation a lot better than the Miami one on offense.

Absolutely love the Ray Rice call. He has a cake playoff schedule as well.

The Oakland situation could pay off as well, if you can get the right back. Problem is, no one knows who that is right now. You almost have to snag both of them to see. I would think that if I had to choose only one it would be MJD, as I think he will get the goal line love (if there is any in Oakland.....LOL)

Thank You and another way to attack with this information is to try and grab the better half of each situation and take 3-4 RBs platooning your RB2/3 slots.

TE1-1st Obviously Jimmy Graham battle plan

RB1-2nd

WR1-3rd

WR2-4th

WR3-5th

Ridley-6th

SJax-7th

MJD-8th

QB1-9th

WR4-10th

QB2-11th

WR5-12th

James White-15th

Just a thought

 

[John 14:6]

Good thread!

 

[dickey moe]

Cleveland

Ben Tate: 5th

T.West: 9th

The Browns are so all over the place but they have a solid OL in some spots, they might not be toothless in the receiving department all season. There are a lot of questions but it seems like most are willing to roll the dice on Tate in the 5th. I think West in the 9th is only from seasoned owners who have been playing redrafts the last 8-10 years, most folks have never even heard of West at your local Hooters redraft leagues around town. I would like this better if Tate were a 6th or 7th, West more in the 12th or later range. Not sure why folks are so intrigued with the Browns backfield but perhaps others in here can share their differing POV on this.

Another situation that I don't like is...

Carolina

DeAngelo: 9th

Stewart: 13th

Tolbert: ???

I feel strongly I saw DeAngelo lose a step last year. I am not optimistic he finds lightning in a bottle this year, he looked like an aging back last year IMO. Stewart teases you and he already is hurt, year 7 now on a lengthy injury report for him that many teams would have closed the book a while ago but Carolina invested roughly $80-$90M in the 2 RBs and ever since those last contracts the production has been average at best here. Cam eats up rushing yds and TDs that would go to many backs on other teams.

The investment is not much bt the rewards don't seem to be there. Take Tolbert late late late and if Stewart is injured and DeAngleo is ineffective, Tolbert can be the guy to come out of these games with box scores looking like this: Tolbert has 14 TDs in Carolina in 2 seasons and 35 over the last 4 seasons dating back to San Diego where Ron Rivera coached at the time, albeit NOT the HC but still. Rivera likes Tolbert, is comfortable with him, trusts him, grab him for nothing as a bye week filler and should he have to carry the load more there you have so little invested. he is a great RB4/5 off your bench for bye weeks. You might get lucky and snare a couple TDs.

Tolbert racked 54 receptions in 2011 for SD, this team is thirsty for receivers or guys who can catch the ball, Tolbert may find his way onto the field more this year.

Don't care about his age -- a starting DWill with that anemic Car passing attack is going to represent mad value around the 9th round this season, IMO.

 

[chickensoup]

MJD/McFadden looks to be one of the best value comboes in best ball leagues. There are not many scenarios where one of the two is not at least a low end RB2 pretty much every week and both are taken in the backup/RB3-4 range.

For normal set your lineup leagues is only take MJD myself, but McFadden could/should have value. I just don't know when

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

MJD/McFadden looks to be one of the best value comboes in best ball leagues. There are not many scenarios where one of the two is not at least a low end RB2 pretty much every week and both are taken in the backup/RB3-4 range.

For normal set your lineup leagues is only take MJD myself, but McFadden could/should have value. I just don't know when

In a best ball format I might be more inclined to go MJD/DMC on the 8/9 turn and feel like I got a steady RB2 out of the pair.

 

[iamkoza]

good discussion... I have a feeling freeman in ATL is going to skyrocket up boards based on pre-season production and know S Jax is always hurt/.old... i keep talking myself in to bidding on rice in my auction mostly because of kubiak and the discount you are gettign on rice due to the suspension and poor performance of last year...

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

good discussion... I have a feeling freeman in ATL is going to skyrocket up boards based on pre-season production and know S Jax is always hurt/.old... i keep talking myself in to bidding on rice in my auction mostly because of kubiak and the discount you are gettign on rice due to the suspension and poor performance of last year...

Let's assume SJax is gimpy thru camp with the proverbial hammy. Maybe Freeman becomes the 7th round ADP, Jackson falls into the 9th or 10th, so in essence they switch. What then? I still feel SJax as long as he can walk upright is going to see the field and the ball initially. Week 1 and it's 3rd and goal in the late 3rd, Atlanta is down 4 and knocking on the door at the 1 yard line. Who do you think is getting the hand off there?

My money is on SJax for the moment, that might change but Freeman was not exactly amazing in college either.

 

[TheFootballJesus]

Nice topic and great opening post. I think there is some great RB availability in the rounds 5-8 to take advantage of this year.

I've always thought that Ridley flashed some amazing skills- he's the most talented runner New England has had since Corey Dillon. The departure of Blount takes away the one guy who I thought might steal some of his touchdowns. He's going to have the opportunity to take control of lead back duties in the New England backfield again...and that's highly valuable.

Chris Johnson is a guy who I would consider in the 5th round but not earlier and with the way his ADP has been trending I don't think it's likely he falls that far. Everybody seems to think his situation has improved but I don't really see things that way. The offensive line in Tennessee was better. The competition is tougher- Chris Ivory is a better talent than Shonn Greene IMO. The offense is equally bad. He's got another year of mileage on him and he's coming off knee surgery in the offseason. I suppose that as an RB2 you could do a lot worse, but I'd rather take my chances with the Ridley's and SJax's a couple rounds later. At least those guys play for offenses where I know whoever takes over as lead running back will have significant value.

 

[jurb26]

Good thread. 2 I think are interesting and worth a look are Cinci and St. L.

Cinci

Gio, 2.8 ADP

Hill, 9.07 ADP

With a coaching change and desire to run more as well as utilize Gio in the passing game more, this looks like an easy redraft pairing you can draft and sure up for your team. If one or the other gets injured it could be fantasy gold. If they don't it will still provide solid return.

St. L

Stacy, 3.04 ADP

Mason, 12.01 ADP

Similar to Cinci, I expect St. L to have one of the premier ground attacks in football. While Stacy is still expected to start and take the lions share, his ADP along with that of Mason's are low enough that it's an easy handcuff situation that could proved a much needed safety net in the scenario that Mason comes on like some expect or an injury occurs.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Nice topic and great opening post. I think there is some great RB availability in the rounds 5-8 to take advantage of this year.

I've always thought that Ridley flashed some amazing skills- he's the most talented runner New England has had since Corey Dillon. The departure of Blount takes away the one guy who I thought might steal some of his touchdowns. He's going to have the opportunity to take control of lead back duties in the New England backfield again...and that's highly valuable.

Chris Johnson is a guy who I would consider in the 5th round but not earlier and with the way his ADP has been trending I don't think it's likely he falls that far. Everybody seems to think his situation has improved but I don't really see things that way. The offensive line in Tennessee was better. The competition is tougher- Chris Ivory is a better talent than Shonn Greene IMO. The offense is equally bad. He's got another year of mileage on him and he's coming off knee surgery in the offseason. I suppose that as an RB2 you could do a lot worse, but I'd rather take my chances with the Ridley's and SJax's a couple rounds later. At least those guys play for offenses where I know whoever takes over as lead running back will have significant value.

TYVM

-On Ridley, how can I not like what you are saying there, ties into my discussion about maybe investing 2 picks into your RB2/3 from the same team with the assumption one of them ends up with the 60 0r 70% of the touches.

-Chris Johnson, I got one for you that we are not saying. He has a HC with 2 trips to the AFCC and never much on offense. CJ 2014 is still the best RB the Jets have had under Ryan bar none, that includes the LT2010 version from a few years back. Rex leads the league in rushing attempt totals over the last 5 years, Jets are almost always top5 in rushing attempts. Let me connect the dots here...Semi-talented RB when motivated, HC who likes to run the ball and even has a term for it called ground n pound, inherits an OL with 2 fairly decorated Pro Bowlers on it. Perhaps the OL will be renewed or re-juiced when they see what happens if they can blow a hole open for CJ who isn't likely to go 3 yds and a cloud of dust as often. I hope folks draw a line in the sand and say 5th round or I pass, that makes it easier to scoop him up.

Nice post

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Good thread. 2 I think are interesting and worth a look are Cinci and St. L.

Cinci

Gio, 2.8 ADP

Hill, 9.07 ADP

With a coaching change and desire to run more as well as utilize Gio in the passing game more, this looks like an easy redraft pairing you can draft and sure up for your team. If one or the other gets injured it could be fantasy gold. If they don't it will still provide solid return.

St. L

Stacy, 3.04 ADP

Mason, 12.01 ADP

Similar to Cinci, I expect St. L to have one of the premier ground attacks in football. While Stacy is still expected to start and take the lions share, his ADP along with that of Mason's are low enough that it's an easy handcuff situation that could proved a much needed safety net in the scenario that Mason comes on like some expect or an injury occurs.

I like your post Jurb, just wanted to be clear that I excluded anyone you had to grab in the 1st 3 rounds and tried to avoid the 4th but CJ is drifting into that round a lot so I gotta be honest.

You have to pass on an awful lot of sure things at WR to take Bernard. I like him a lot, saw a couple of his college games in person, not surprised in the least that he is doing well, in person he looked special or had that "it" factor you look for. That said, I don't see him as a feature back(20 carries), developing TE, just might be a stretch at the mid 2nd but I understand the enthusiasm.

Stacy/Mason is interesting and one I wanted to discuss. I think personally I could just grab Mason in the 11th or 12th and be happy just to have a long shot with some upside as my RB4. Stacy will get a lot of carries but I think he needs a lot of carries to amass any yardage totals. He was good for 3.9 ypc last season, we'll see if he improves on it. I see Mason taking about 8-10 touches a game especially after Stacy wears them down a little then suddenly in comes Mason who runs a different style, gonna be interesting in St Louis this year. I'm intrigued but at the same time I am wanting to watch thru at other teams who draft these guys.

 

[BoltBacker]

MOP would have loved this thread.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Any thoughts from anyone on Mathews and the SD Chargers ground fame in general? Loss of Whisenhunt as OC? What kind of ADP we talking here?

 

[BoltBacker]

Any thoughts from anyone on Mathews and the SD Chargers ground fame in general? Loss of Whisenhunt as OC? What kind of ADP we talking here?

I think it's a great situation if you are a Charger fan, terrible for fantasy owners.

I thought Brown was a great late pick in dynasty because Woodhead was a question mark in the last year of his deal but once they extended him it puts a slight damper on Brown.

In redraft I wouldn't touch any of them besides maybe Brown in leagues where you have a DEEP bench and you can wait for the inevitable Mathews injury.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Any thoughts from anyone on Mathews and the SD Chargers ground fame in general? Loss of Whisenhunt as OC? What kind of ADP we talking here?

I think it's a great situation if you are a Charger fan, terrible for fantasy owners.

I thought Brown was a great late pick in dynasty because Woodhead was a question mark in the last year of his deal but once they extended him it puts a slight damper on Brown.

In redraft I wouldn't touch any of them besides maybe Brown in leagues where you have a DEEP bench and you can wait for the inevitable Mathews injury.

TYVM for weighing in

 

[Buzzbait]

Good thread. 2 I think are interesting and worth a look are Cinci and St. L.

Cinci

Gio, 2.8 ADP

Hill, 9.07 ADP

With a coaching change and desire to run more as well as utilize Gio in the passing game more, this looks like an easy redraft pairing you can draft and sure up for your team. If one or the other gets injured it could be fantasy gold. If they don't it will still provide solid return.

I've been hearing a lot of Cincy committing more to the run this year but they were #8 in 2013 in attempts. The issue wasn't a lack of commitment to the running game but rather one of efficiency as they were #27 in yds/att. If you think Cincy's running game will fix those efficiency issues Gio may be a good RB but don't get fooled by the talk they they are "committing to the run this year." Personally, as a Bengal fan, I'd steer clear. He's a great talent but I'm not sure they fixed the OL issues (they may start a rookie center) and I'd be concerned Hill will be the GLB. End of round two is too high for my taste.

 

[jurb26]

Good thread. 2 I think are interesting and worth a look are Cinci and St. L.

Cinci

Gio, 2.8 ADP

Hill, 9.07 ADP

With a coaching change and desire to run more as well as utilize Gio in the passing game more, this looks like an easy redraft pairing you can draft and sure up for your team. If one or the other gets injured it could be fantasy gold. If they don't it will still provide solid return.

I've been hearing a lot of Cincy committing more to the run this year but they were #8 in 2013 in attempts. The issue wasn't a lack of commitment to the running game but rather one of efficiency as they were #27 in yds/att. If you think Cincy's running game will fix those efficiency issues Gio may be a good RB but don't get fooled by the talk they they are "committing to the run this year." Personally, as a Bengal fan, I'd steer clear. He's a great talent but I'm not sure they fixed the OL issues (they may start a rookie center) and I'd be concerned Hill will be the GLB. End of round two is too high for my taste.

Committing to the run is a function of how much you run as a percentage of the offense. Hue has shown to run at a 48.5 rate over the years. Cinci was bellow 46 the past 2 years. That's a big difference. Cinci simply ran a lot of plays last year. Den also had an inflated rushing total but they were nothing close to a run based team.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Any thoughts from anyone on Mathews and the SD Chargers ground fame in general? Loss of Whisenhunt as OC? What kind of ADP we talking here?

According to this, ADP is 37. http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/overall.php

I got Mathews in the 6th round (I think) last year and he represented good value.

I was initially thinking that 37 is too high, due to Woodhead and Brown, but really Woodhead did not affect his numbers much last year and Brown never seems to produce consistently (and/or gets hurt) so maybe there is not so much to be concerned about?

 

[Long Ball Larry]

I'd like to sum this up by teams and how secure the top back is. Obviously feel free to disagree.

Here are the teams that I think have a pretty safe starter:

Eagles
Cowboys
Redskins
Packers
Bears
Vikings
Chiefs
Broncos
Buccaneers
Seahawks
Bengals
Steelers
Cardinals
Titans
Texans (though Foster's injury could obviously change this)
Jaguars
Rams

Then there are teams with more questions. The 2 in bold have not been mentioned in this thread. I put in a few notes.

Colts - Reports are that TRich is still the man there, but last year was so awful.
49ers - At what point does Gore have to reduce?
Patriots - Ridley may have the least competition for carries among anyone on these teams.Jets
Bills - We all know the story here.
Dolphins - Seems messy
Falcons - Jackson the clear starter, but if he breaks down, he could fall off fast and Freeman seems to be a clear 2.
Saints - Always ends up a mess
Panthers - Always ends up a mess
Ravens - Rice is the clear starter. Pierce a clear 2 if Rice goes down.
Browns - I think Tate is the clear starter, but injury could be a problem.
Raiders - Seems messy
Chargers
Lions - This seems like a true committee
Giants - Agree with above that Jennings gets the job. Williams a clear 2 if Jennings goes down.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

COLTS

I think that Richardson represents a good value at his current ADP of 68.

I will never believe in Bradshaw's ability to stay healthy at this point. I don't see Herron seriously threatening, though he could be something as a last-round pick in certain situations, if you really believe that Richardson will fail.

The Colts want Richrdson to get the ball. He is going to get lots of opportunity. I am buying at 68.

49ers

To me, Hyde is clearly the better value at his current ADP of 132. Surely he will rise if he keeps playing like he did in the first preseason game, but even so, I like his chances of getting the starting gig at some point. I just have to believe that Gore will break down and/or that the young legs will be too enticing. There is no one else to challenge Hyde.

The 10 guys in front of Hyde in ADP right now are: Khiry Robinson, DMC, Pierce, DeAngelo, Terrance West, Woodhead, Moreno, Fred Jackson, Sproles and Lamar Miller.

I'm not sure that I would rather have any of them over Hyde. The combination of team, talent, and potential opportunity looks best to me.

That said, I would not write off Gore completely. His current ADP of 48 is a little much for me, but if he slipped a bit, I think that I would take him. He was about RB12 last year and if he does stay healthy, he could do the same thing.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Great post LBL

 

[bulger2holt]

What about Woodhead in PPR?

 

[Long Ball Larry]

What about Woodhead in PPR?

fair question. He certainly has a good chance to outperform Hyde.

But I would say that his ceiling is limited, so it probably depends on what you need in your draft. If your roster construction would benefit from a guy who is stable and basically your first guy off the bench as needed, Woodhead probably makes sense. If you want a guy with true starter upside, I think that Hyde is the guy.

 

[MattFancy]

What about Woodhead in PPR?

Worried about him this year. He wasn't used much down the stretch and then they brought in Donald Brown in FA. Just think the backfield there is too crowded for my liking. If you get Woodhead, I wouldn't want to have to start him every week.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

What about Woodhead in PPR?

Worried about him this year. He wasn't used much down the stretch and then they brought in Donald Brown in FA. Just think the backfield there is too crowded for my liking. If you get Woodhead, I wouldn't want to have to start him every week.

But then again he's going in the RB35-38 range in ADP listings. Yeah, there's more uncertainty, but that's a huge overlay for a guy who we know is capable of being an RB1 in PPR (because he did it, oh, last year) and whose downside is limited by his consistent usage in the short passing game. I'd be a buyer on Woodhead well before most of the guys around him in ADP right now.

 

[bagger]

i find there is huge value in rbs in the 5th to 9th round range.

cj2k, pierre thomas, r jennings, woodhead, d freeman can all be had there.

really looking to grab graham in the first and then 3 wrs before taking any rbs this year in ppr leagues.