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Indefinite Las Vegas Raiders thread - ☠ Mork and Brady searching for a wet paper bag to see if Pete Carroll can still coach his way out of one ☠ (2 Viewers)

What is going to be the reaction from the fans when:
— the Raiders win out to save AP’s job
— they bring back AOC and try to patchwork the QB position next year
We'll go into next season talking about how great the defense looks, and how if you look at it from the right angle O'Connell reminds us a little bit of Peyton Manning.

And, if they get a couple good bounces and if the new LBs, DBs, DTs etc live up to their draft position/scouting...they could sneak into the playoffs and make a run.

And, in week four, when they're 1-3, I will be shouting from the mountain top about tanking for college QB ABC and how we need to go after Ben Johnson's offensive coordinator because the Bears are 4-0 and Caleb is an MVP candidate.

So, pretty much status quo.
 
What is going to be the reaction from the fans when:
— the Raiders win out to save AP’s job
— they bring back AOC and try to patchwork the QB position next year
We'll go into next season talking about how great the defense looks, and how if you look at it from the right angle O'Connell reminds us a little bit of Peyton Manning.

And, if they get a couple good bounces and if the new LBs, DBs, DTs etc live up to their draft position/scouting...they could sneak into the playoffs and make a run.

And, in week four, when they're 1-3, I will be shouting from the mountain top about tanking for college QB ABC and how we need to go after Ben Johnson's offensive coordinator because the Bears are 4-0 and Caleb is an MVP candidate.

So, pretty much status quo.
Outstanding response. Well done sir!
 
What is going to be the reaction from the fans when:
— the Raiders win out to save AP’s job
— they bring back AOC and try to patchwork the QB position next year
We'll go into next season talking about how great the defense looks, and how if you look at it from the right angle O'Connell reminds us a little bit of Peyton Manning.

And, if they get a couple good bounces and if the new LBs, DBs, DTs etc live up to their draft position/scouting...they could sneak into the playoffs and make a run.

And, in week four, when they're 1-3, I will be shouting from the mountain top about tanking for college QB ABC and how we need to go after Ben Johnson's offensive coordinator because the Bears are 4-0 and Caleb is an MVP candidate.

So, pretty much status quo.
I feel attacked
 
Hey @Hankmoody

Now that we have this “indefinite” raiders thread (I much prefer it to an annual thread that is always awkward and messy during the transition), can you add a little pizzaz to the thread title so this thread pops a bit. Something as simple as a few *** or maybe even this ☠️


(yes, I’m concerned about really important stuff heading into the post season ;) )
 
Hey @Hankmoody

Now that we have this “indefinite” raiders thread (I much prefer it to an annual thread that is always awkward and messy during the transition), can you add a little pizzaz to the thread title so this thread pops a bit. Something as simple as a few *** or maybe even this ☠️


(yes, I’m concerned about really important stuff heading into the post season ;) )
I'm all in for: "Las Vegas Raiders - Commitment to Cognitive Dissonance!"
 

I am going to leave this here and see if it explodes @DA RAIDERS head with his favorite QB ever talking about his favorite Coach ever.
Meh. Carr is still simply a barely above average qb. Gruden is still a washed up caricature of what he once was, 25 years ago. He’s been getting a run of publicity recently for some reason. I blame barcstool sports.
 
I am increasingly on board with going after Tee Higgins with a market level contract.
But we just had Adams and got nowhere with that. I assume you’re thinking we grab a rookie QB in the draft come hell or high water, and we see if we can compete immediately?
 
I am increasingly on board with going after Tee Higgins with a market level contract.
But we just had Adams and got nowhere with that. I assume you’re thinking we grab a rookie QB in the draft come hell or high water, and we see if we can compete immediately?
Adams was 29 when we got him. Higgins will be 26. Those are three key years. We don't have to "compete" to go get good players, but we definitely need to give whichever QB we have quality weapons. Meyers is a fantastic WR2 but overmatched as a 1, Brock is a stud, and Tucker is a fine WR3/slot/deep speed guy. Getting a stud WR1 would go a long way.

That said, CIN is in the driver's seat with Higgins. There's a reason stud WR rarely hit the market. Our best bet is probably to trade for a guy like Deebo or Metcalf that's in the last year of a contract and the team has cap issues and/or better younger players on the roster they'd rather spend the cap on. Higgins kind of falls into that, their priority #1 will be getting Chase under contract, but I suspect they moved on from Mixon in large part so that they could clear money for Higgins. They spend nothing at TE and nothing at RB and they don't really have a WR3 that's up and coming. Their real question will be if they want to spend $30M+ on two WR, or if they CAN with Burrow's contract and the need to work on OL still. They could very well just put all the money on offense and go into shootout mode.

edit: wow, they have $60M in cap space next year. They can get creative and get both WR done easily. One will probably only be a 2 or 3 year until the balloon payments start forcing things but that's easy to push in on right now. I would be pretty surprised if they let Higgins out of the building.
 
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Bowers needs 10 yards to break the all-time rookie TE receiving yards record.


He broke the receptions record two weeks ago


He has a legit chance to set the all-time TE receptions record, he would need 16 in two games to break it

 
Knowing the Raiders, they'll probably trade for Pickens after he head cases his way out of Pittsburgh.
The funny thing is I was hoping this exact thing, that we'd trade for him if the price is right. I'm aware of his challenges, and our history of trading with the Stealers, but I don't care. I want talent on this team and he has that in spades. AP is the kind of guy that might be able to connect with a player like this and keep him reeled in - Jack Jones had some history prior to coming here and we haven't heard a peep out of him. Obviously not a premium pick but if they want to dump him for what they gave up Diontae Johnson (another guy I wouldn't mind taking a cheap swing at) I'm all in on that.

edit: Jakorion Bennett and a 5th would be about equivalent to what PIT got for Diontae. I'd give that for Pickens in a flash.
 
Knowing the Raiders, they'll probably trade for Pickens after he head cases his way out of Pittsburgh.
The funny thing is I was hoping this exact thing, that we'd trade for him if the price is right. I'm aware of his challenges, and our history of trading with the Stealers, but I don't care. I want talent on this team and he has that in spades. AP is the kind of guy that might be able to connect with a player like this and keep him reeled in - Jack Jones had some history prior to coming here and we haven't heard a peep out of him. Obviously not a premium pick but if they want to dump him for what they gave up Diontae Johnson (another guy I wouldn't mind taking a cheap swing at) I'm all in on that.

edit: Jakorion Bennett and a 5th would be about equivalent to what PIT got for Diontae. I'd give that for Pickens in a flash.
No thanks to Pickens.

He has talent, but it hasn’t delivered on a consistent basis. We don’t need a fickle, unreliable head case on this team.
 
Another great win for the future of the franchise. Let’s finish out the year strong with a 3 game win streak and get the 1st round pick down to the 10-15 range.
 
I am increasingly on board with going after Tee Higgins with a market level contract.
Doubt Higgins wants to go to a team without a plan at QB. Unless they massively overpay for someone who is dinged up a lot.

Agree. Higgins will likely have multiple offers. Why would he choose the Raiders? Unless they are willing to pay him significantly more than the other teams.
 
Just when we want to give up, AOC puts up another solid performance.
Y'know, if you look at him from the right angle and squint just a bit he kinda looks like a young Peyton Manning.
i see Kurt Warner when im squinting

I am increasingly on board with going after Tee Higgins with a market level contract.
Doubt Higgins wants to go to a team without a plan at QB. Unless they massively overpay for someone who is dinged up a lot.

Agree. Higgins will likely have multiple offers. Why would he choose the Raiders? Unless they are willing to pay him significantly more than the other teams.
Haven't you heard? Aidan O'Connell = Peyton Warner.
 
A deeper dive into Higgins has me cooled off. He's pretty inconsistent and I wouldn't want to commit a huge amount of money to him. He only has 8 games in THREE seasons over 100 yards. The comp I heard on a podcast was Kenny Golladay. Now I was a huge fan of Golladay and cannot for the life of me understand what happened to him other than maybe he got his truck of cash and stopped working for it. I've heard $30M a year on Higgins, which means $80M+ guaranteed, and I'm out at that price. But Spotrac has a Market Value tool that has a Calculated Market Value of 5 years/$103,574,710 for an average o $20.7M a year.


The copy/paste function sucks on that page, but the comps were Chris Godwin, Terry McLaurin, DJ Moore (first extension, age 25), and Michael Pittman. Those 4 were all $20M - $23M average per year for an age-adjusted linear regression of 3 years/$66.7M for $22.2M average.

Not sure how they get $20.7M a year from a $22.2M comp, especially once adjusted for 2025 cap range but even if they did something approaching $25M as long as it's not overloaded with guarantees/dead money I'd be down for that. Calvin Ridley's contract is perfect - 4 years, $92M, $47M guaranteed.
 
A deeper dive into Higgins has me cooled off. He's pretty inconsistent and I wouldn't want to commit a huge amount of money to him. He only has 8 games in THREE seasons over 100 yards. The comp I heard on a podcast was Kenny Golladay. Now I was a huge fan of Golladay and cannot for the life of me understand what happened to him other than maybe he got his truck of cash and stopped working for it. I've heard $30M a year on Higgins, which means $80M+ guaranteed, and I'm out at that price. But Spotrac has a Market Value tool that has a Calculated Market Value of 5 years/$103,574,710 for an average o $20.7M a year.


The copy/paste function sucks on that page, but the comps were Chris Godwin, Terry McLaurin, DJ Moore (first extension, age 25), and Michael Pittman. Those 4 were all $20M - $23M average per year for an age-adjusted linear regression of 3 years/$66.7M for $22.2M average.

Not sure how they get $20.7M a year from a $22.2M comp, especially once adjusted for 2025 cap range but even if they did something approaching $25M as long as it's not overloaded with guarantees/dead money I'd be down for that. Calvin Ridley's contract is perfect - 4 years, $92M, $47M guaranteed.

I think he's one of the most consistent end zone targets in the NFL... or at least, that's what Joe Burrow seems to think. He's very "Devante Adams" in this regard. That has to account for something.
 
A deeper dive into Higgins has me cooled off. He's pretty inconsistent and I wouldn't want to commit a huge amount of money to him. He only has 8 games in THREE seasons over 100 yards. The comp I heard on a podcast was Kenny Golladay. Now I was a huge fan of Golladay and cannot for the life of me understand what happened to him other than maybe he got his truck of cash and stopped working for it. I've heard $30M a year on Higgins, which means $80M+ guaranteed, and I'm out at that price. But Spotrac has a Market Value tool that has a Calculated Market Value of 5 years/$103,574,710 for an average o $20.7M a year.


The copy/paste function sucks on that page, but the comps were Chris Godwin, Terry McLaurin, DJ Moore (first extension, age 25), and Michael Pittman. Those 4 were all $20M - $23M average per year for an age-adjusted linear regression of 3 years/$66.7M for $22.2M average.

Not sure how they get $20.7M a year from a $22.2M comp, especially once adjusted for 2025 cap range but even if they did something approaching $25M as long as it's not overloaded with guarantees/dead money I'd be down for that. Calvin Ridley's contract is perfect - 4 years, $92M, $47M guaranteed.

I think he's one of the most consistent end zone targets in the NFL... or at least, that's what Joe Burrow seems to think. He's very "Devante Adams" in this regard. That has to account for something.

PFF has graded 79 WRs with at least 50 targets this season. Higgins:
  • Offense grade - 88.2, #6
  • Receiving grade - 88.4, #6
  • Drops grade - 86.0, #9
  • Passer rating when targeted - 124.5, #9
  • Yards per route run - 2.10, #25
  • Missed tackles forced - 16, tied for #9
  • First downs - 45, tied for #21
  • TDs - 10, tied for #5
  • Drop percentage - 2.8%, #11 (2 drops)
Keep in mind for a few of those compiled metrics, Higgins has only played 11 games this season.

I think his market will exceed what Spotrac is showing for a few reasons:
  • 3 of the comps they used were contracts signed in 2022, and the WR market has escalated since then, at least for top of market players.
  • All 4 of their comps were contract extensions signed while the players were still under contract. Hitting unrestricted free agency should drive his contract value up.
  • Higgins is going to easily be the best free agent WR available. It's not close, largely due to age -- he is turning 26 in January.
I'm hoping the Chargers pursue him.
 
PFF has graded 79 WRs with at least 50 targets this season. Higgins:
  • Offense grade - 88.2, #6
  • Receiving grade - 88.4, #6
  • Drops grade - 86.0, #9
  • Passer rating when targeted - 124.5, #9
  • Yards per route run - 2.10, #25
  • Missed tackles forced - 16, tied for #9
  • First downs - 45, tied for #21
  • TDs - 10, tied for #5
  • Drop percentage - 2.8%, #11 (2 drops)
Keep in mind for a few of those compiled metrics, Higgins has only played 11 games this season.
Those are good numbers to see, do you have any prior seasons for him?

I noted that the comps weren't adjusted for cap growth, so what used to average $22M is going to start at about $26M+. Good point about the contract status leverage, I didn't look into them individually yet.

I suppose I'm leery of the Christian Kirk effect, where getting the "best" option in a watered down field results in overpaying the market. I've always liked Higgins, was very high on him in dynasty, but I wonder if he can carry the load as a #1 with not-Joe-Burrow-career-year throwing him the ball. LAC would probably be a lot less trepidation that LVR would in the QB quality department.
 
PFF has graded 79 WRs with at least 50 targets this season. Higgins:
  • Offense grade - 88.2, #6
  • Receiving grade - 88.4, #6
  • Drops grade - 86.0, #9
  • Passer rating when targeted - 124.5, #9
  • Yards per route run - 2.10, #25
  • Missed tackles forced - 16, tied for #9
  • First downs - 45, tied for #21
  • TDs - 10, tied for #5
  • Drop percentage - 2.8%, #11 (2 drops)
Keep in mind for a few of those compiled metrics, Higgins has only played 11 games this season.
Those are good numbers to see, do you have any prior seasons for him?

I noted that the comps weren't adjusted for cap growth, so what used to average $22M is going to start at about $26M+. Good point about the contract status leverage, I didn't look into them individually yet.

I suppose I'm leery of the Christian Kirk effect, where getting the "best" option in a watered down field results in overpaying the market. I've always liked Higgins, was very high on him in dynasty, but I wonder if he can carry the load as a #1 with not-Joe-Burrow-career-year throwing him the ball. LAC would probably be a lot less trepidation that LVR would in the QB quality department.

Just as a quick summary, here are his PFF receiving grades and ranks by year:
  • 2020 - 79.0, #23 - Burrow played 10 games
  • 2021 - 82.8, #11
  • 2022 - 78.8, #21
  • 2023 - 70.9, #47 - Burrow played 10 games
  • 2024 - 88.2, #6
2024 is his career best season based on these grades, which was a great bounceback season for him after 2023, which was his career worst.
 
A deeper dive into Higgins has me cooled off. He's pretty inconsistent and I wouldn't want to commit a huge amount of money to him. He only has 8 games in THREE seasons over 100 yards. The comp I heard on a podcast was Kenny Golladay. Now I was a huge fan of Golladay and cannot for the life of me understand what happened to him other than maybe he got his truck of cash and stopped working for it. I've heard $30M a year on Higgins, which means $80M+ guaranteed, and I'm out at that price. But Spotrac has a Market Value tool that has a Calculated Market Value of 5 years/$103,574,710 for an average o $20.7M a year.


The copy/paste function sucks on that page, but the comps were Chris Godwin, Terry McLaurin, DJ Moore (first extension, age 25), and Michael Pittman. Those 4 were all $20M - $23M average per year for an age-adjusted linear regression of 3 years/$66.7M for $22.2M average.

Not sure how they get $20.7M a year from a $22.2M comp, especially once adjusted for 2025 cap range but even if they did something approaching $25M as long as it's not overloaded with guarantees/dead money I'd be down for that. Calvin Ridley's contract is perfect - 4 years, $92M, $47M guaranteed.
Not sure why you went with three seasons, it's his fifth season.

From PFR I count 14 100 yards games in 69 appearances (four of 90-99). Plus two more in seven playoff games. With a TD, or more, in 27 games
 
Looks like this thread has jumped the shark. Higgins? That is the preferred FA target for a team that lacks a QB or a dynamic RB? Really?

I think we can all agree QB should be the priority, but they shouldn’t reach or leverage the farm unless. Feels like next year will be another stop gap solution at the position.

I think RB should be a target in RD 2 or 3. Upgrading production at the position will help whoever is under center. It also allows AP to play the style of football he desires, assuming he is retained.
 
It also allows AP to play the style of football he desires,
What type of running style does AP prefer? Do they run a gap blocking scheme -or- zone blocking scheme?
I think the answer to that question would be determined by the OC. But, in general, I think you would want a RB that has the skill set to perform behind either blocking scheme.

Ideally, both schemes should be mixed into run game.
 
Looks like this thread has jumped the shark. Higgins? That is the preferred FA target for a team that lacks a QB or a dynamic RB? Really?

I think we can all agree QB should be the priority, but they shouldn’t reach or leverage the farm unless. Feels like next year will be another stop gap solution at the position.

I think RB should be a target in RD 2 or 3. Upgrading production at the position will help whoever is under center. It also allows AP to play the style of football he desires, assuming he is retained.
I think Higgins is going to be 26 later this month. I don't think he's a top of the league WR, but he is very good and you'd think there is a good chance the Raiders will be taking a first round QB this year or next. If they do, O line and receivers are this team's priority. It's a lot easier to find a decent RB than a very good WR.
 
Looks like this thread has jumped the shark. Higgins? That is the preferred FA target for a team that lacks a QB or a dynamic RB? Really?

I think we can all agree QB should be the priority, but they shouldn’t reach or leverage the farm unless. Feels like next year will be another stop gap solution at the position.

I think RB should be a target in RD 2 or 3. Upgrading production at the position will help whoever is under center. It also allows AP to play the style of football he desires, assuming he is retained.
I think Higgins is going to be 26 later this month. I don't think he's a top of the league WR, but he is very good and you'd think there is a good chance the Raiders will be taking a first round QB this year or next. If they do, O line and receivers are this team's priority. It's a lot easier to find a decent RB than a very good WR.
The Raiders have won their way out of a first round QB. They need to go BPA in the first 2 or 3 rounds and draft a QB prospect later in the draft. It’s unfortunate and not going to lead to a great season in 2025 but great QBs are tough to find. AOC is the starting QB this Fall.
 
Looks like this thread has jumped the shark. Higgins? That is the preferred FA target for a team that lacks a QB or a dynamic RB? Really?

I think we can all agree QB should be the priority, but they shouldn’t reach or leverage the farm unless. Feels like next year will be another stop gap solution at the position.

I think RB should be a target in RD 2 or 3. Upgrading production at the position will help whoever is under center. It also allows AP to play the style of football he desires, assuming he is retained.
I think Higgins is going to be 26 later this month. I don't think he's a top of the league WR, but he is very good and you'd think there is a good chance the Raiders will be taking a first round QB this year or next. If they do, O line and receivers are this team's priority. It's a lot easier to find a decent RB than a very good WR.
The Raiders have won their way out of a first round QB. They need to go BPA in the first 2 or 3 rounds and draft a QB prospect later in the draft. It’s unfortunate and not going to lead to a great season in 2025 but great QBs are tough to find. AOC is the starting QB this Fall.
Yeah unless they trade up, which I would not advocate for.
 
Looks like this thread has jumped the shark. Higgins? That is the preferred FA target for a team that lacks a QB or a dynamic RB? Really?
Huh? No one said any such thing. Whoever lines up behind center is going to need WR to throw to, however, so pardon us if we discuss those options.
 

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