Is Kitna a reach at 5:1? (1 Viewer)

[Chaka]

What does 5.1 mean? What QB # are you talking about? Is Kitna the #6th QB off the board in this scenario? It will be a big problem choosing between him and McNabb. I lean towards McNabb.With or without T.O. he is consistently one of the top 3 fantasy QBs in PPG and I don't consider him a greater injury risk behind his pro bowl line than Kitna who already has back spasms and plays behind the same line that gave up 69 sacks last season. And isn't Damien Woody dinged up too?

You dont consider McNabb and greater injury risk then Kitna? wowIt's hard to argue with McNabbs monster ppg tally, but McNabb=Kitna in the durability deptartment? wow

I don't think it is that big of a surprise. Martz loves to run deep patterns with his receivers and historically his QBs absorb a lot of hits.McNabb has a much more significant injury history but until I know that Kitna isn't going to be running for his life all season I see them as equal risks.I also am not sold on Kitna's job security in general. He has not proven himself to be a consistent player in his career nor is he ever been particularly effective in the red zone and I think a bad start by the Lions could lead to his benching for Orlovsky.They are both risks but I like McNabb's proven production.

Orlovsky? He isnt even the back up. Its JT O'Sullivan. And neither back up is the future, so getting them reps isnt the issue. Stanton is on the IR, otherwise you would have said he was guy who would get reps.

No backup has been named, I think it will be Orlovsky.Either way I don't think Kitna has a hammer lock on his job like McNabb does.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

No backup has been named, I think it will be Orlovsky.Either way I don't think Kitna has a hammer lock on his job like McNabb does.

I will agree that Kitna does not have the "hammer lock" like McNabb does.Would you agree that when rating durability, McNabb has proven to be much less durable then Kitna?

 

[vichawkfan]

I took him at 5.05....had to. The already mentioned were gone, along with Romo, Rottencheeseburger, Hasselbeck.....so I basically got him as the 9th QB off the board. I did draft Vince in the 6th just in case.

That's a mistake...... taking 2 Qb's in the first 6 rounds of your draft gives your opponents the edge.You would have been fine with taking Young in the 7th round and just letting Kitna go.If ALL of those QB's are gone already........there MUST be tremendous value in the WR positions as RB's go. I would have loved to see what WR's were left, I bet some solid ones.

WR's left in the 5-7th round - best one would have been Deion Branch. I had keepers at WR (Curtis) and RB (TJones) that cost me at 15th and 10th round respectively. I took Vince as the 11th QB off the board in a 10 team league. Offers quality back-up if Kitna gets killed. Of course, that's just my humble opinion.

 

[BigSeph]

If ADP and projections were 100% accurate before fantasy football drafts, it would stand to reason that the higher picks would have better teams and would always win.

You have to sort of go with your gut in regards to Kitna vs. McNabb. Kitna has a year under his belt in the Martz offense which traditionally produces top tier fantasy QBs. McNabb has been a tremendous ppg fantasy player throughout his NFL career.

The question is, which one do you like best, and do YOU think they'll put up better stats than available players when it's your turn to pick?

I'd say by year end they'll finish up with similar stats, Kitna with more yards and McNabb with more rushing yds and TDs.

I got Kitna at 7.10, I'd say you can wait depending on what QBs are left. 7 QBs were off the board in my 12-team league.

But if you have to have somebody, ignore the "VALUE VALUE VALUE" crowd and draft based on how well you think a player will do this year, and not so much how he did last year or what other people think he'll do.

 

[IanTucker]

How one defines reach is dependent on your projections and ADP.

Going for "value" against the listed ADP number is one of the poorer strategies around. When ADP came into use it seemed that people at least had an idea that the ADP number represented an average of a range of numbers. Now people use the number as if that is exactly where the pick will come. Big mistake.

If you project Kitna's numbers to be significantly higher than let's say David Dodds projections (as I do) then he is not a reach there.

 

[BusterTBronco]

W/ those of us with the first pick we end up with LT. I have a draft strategy plotted out and wondered, from you experts out there if you think 5:1 for Kitna is a reach? Mcnabb could very well be available at that spot as well.Who likely won't be avail at 5:1:ManningPalmerBulgerBreesBradySo......is Kitna a reach and given Mcnabb's recent injury history, who would you rather have and why?

I would only draft Kitna in the fifth round if I played in a league which does not penalize for INT's.

 

[curta269]

Romo / Kitna / Cutler in the 7/8

That is where I will take 1 of those 3. I am really targeting a combination of 2 of those 3 QBs.

 

[ComfortablyNumb]

The correct answer is determined by comparing two scenarios given your league's scoring and your own player projections:

Add your projected points for Kitna to your projected points for the player (WR or RB?) you would expect to pick at 6.12.

Compare that number to your projected points of the player you might pick at 5.01 if not Kitna plus the points of the QB you'd expect to get at 6.12.

Which number is bigger?

I like Kitna, too (he might have the greatest upside of any QB relative to his ADP). My similar problem is that I pick 12th Sunday and am kind of doubting he lasts until 5.12 in my QB-friendly scoring league. I'll just have to hope so 'cause I won't reach for him at 4.1. The turns are really a bad place to be when targeting certain players...

 

[LordHusker]

I took Kitna last night at 4.13 in my 14-team draft and feel fine about it. Six QBs had already gone and the very next pick after I took Kitna, an owner grabbed Vince Young. I would rather have Kitna than Young.

Kitna is a solid pick this year, guys.

 

[SCT]

The correct answer is determined by comparing two scenarios given your league's scoring and your own player projections: Add your projected points for Kitna to your projected points for the player (WR or RB?) you would expect to pick at 6.12. Compare that number to your projected points of the player you might pick at 5.01 if not Kitna plus the points of the QB you'd expect to get at 6.12. Which number is bigger?I like Kitna, too (he might have the greatest upside of any QB relative to his ADP). My similar problem is that I pick 12th Sunday and am kind of doubting he lasts until 5.12 in my QB-friendly scoring league. I'll just have to hope so 'cause I won't reach for him at 4.1. The turns are really a bad place to be when targeting certain players...

I just did this for you because I too am targeting Kitna....the numbers work out +21 projected points on the side of NOT taking Kitna...Instead you get WR Edwards/Branch and QB Young/Rivers. If you go Kitna first, you end up with Chambers/Galloway at WR. The two guys are just to give you an idea of type of WR we're talking. BTW, I follow Dodd's Perfect Draft article to the T, and Kitna is going way too early to get value based on his suggestions. He says wait to get Kitna in 6th or 7th round I believe, which isn't likely.

 

[Christo]

I took him at 5.05....had to. The already mentioned were gone, along with Romo, Rottencheeseburger, Hasselbeck.....so I basically got him as the 9th QB off the board. I did draft Vince in the 6th just in case.

Well, I took him at 9.01 as the 13th QB off the board. So there!

 

[BigSteelThrill]

The correct answer is determined by comparing two scenarios given your league's scoring and your own player projections: Add your projected points for Kitna to your projected points for the player (WR or RB?) you would expect to pick at 6.12. Compare that number to your projected points of the player you might pick at 5.01 if not Kitna plus the points of the QB you'd expect to get at 6.12. Which number is bigger?I like Kitna, too (he might have the greatest upside of any QB relative to his ADP). My similar problem is that I pick 12th Sunday and am kind of doubting he lasts until 5.12 in my QB-friendly scoring league. I'll just have to hope so 'cause I won't reach for him at 4.1. The turns are really a bad place to be when targeting certain players...

I just did this for you because I too am targeting Kitna....the numbers work out +21 projected points on the side of NOT taking Kitna...Instead you get WR Edwards/Branch and QB Young/Rivers. If you go Kitna first, you end up with Chambers/Galloway at WR. The two guys are just to give you an idea of type of WR we're talking. BTW, I follow Dodd's Perfect Draft article to the T, and Kitna is going way too early to get value based on his suggestions. He says wait to get Kitna in 6th or 7th round I believe, which isn't likely.

I find that a bit amiss. Kitna outscored Rivers by 40 last year with -1 for Int. Which is bigger then any 1 round WR dropoff will ever be. Now it does change based on your projections or if you have -2 for ints. But it just seems that there has to be a 40 point change at the QB and then a 20 point dropoff at the WR, which again seems a bit amiss. Dodds perfect draft was also written some time ago. And as I have stated elsewhere, Kitna was certainly going to climb the ranking the closer we get to the season as people see the Martz pass offense with more clarity. So following the article to a T, leads you a little bit astray when you are 3 weeks deep into the preseason. Understand his article has Vick before Kitna. Kitna was good enough though, that Dodds had him targeted as his QB choice.

 

[Gopher State]

Ten team redraft this week:

McNabb went 4-1

Kitna went 5-10

I took Romo 10-2

 

[LordHusker]

Good luck with that.

 

[Dexter Manley]

Just did a 16 team league redraft last Saturday. All td's 6 pts, 1 pt per 20 yds passing, and -2 for ints/fumbles lost. It was my turn at 4.06.

I didn't want to take a qb, there were already like 31 rb's off the board (I had my 2 starters), but the highest rated wr's on my board were S. Moss and Cotchery, and I determined the latter would probably be there in the 5th round @ 5.11.

The following qb's were gone: Manning, Palmer, Brees, Brady, Bulger, McNabb, Romo, and Rivers. I had Kitna outscoring the remaining qb's by a significant margin (if he stays healthy, I think he's a lock for top 5 #'s), and I knew there was almost no chance he would get back to me. Since I felt like I could get Cotchery on the way back, I pulled the trigger on Kitna, and don't regret it.

Ended up getting Cotchery at 5.11 as I predicted. Maybe I techinically reached on Kitna, but I got good value w/ Cotchery, imo. Had I taken S. Moss at 4.06, I would of had to take Roethlesberger @ 5.11, as their was a Steeler fan drafting behind me, and he would of been the last qb on my list that I wanted.

I really feel like I squeezed the most value I could have out of those 2 picks based on the remaining players available and my projections for them.

 

[flooredyas]

I waited and got him at 6.8 yesterday. 12 teams/points for completions/yardage/bonuses/6 point td's. He was the 8th QB taken. I wanted one of my top 7 and he was the last one remaining. 4 QB's taken in the first 2 rounds BTW.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

What does 5.1 mean? What QB # are you talking about? Is Kitna the #6th QB off the board in this scenario? It will be a big problem choosing between him and McNabb. I lean towards McNabb.With or without T.O. he is consistently one of the top 3 fantasy QBs in PPG and I don't consider him a greater injury risk behind his pro bowl line than Kitna who already has back spasms and plays behind the same line that gave up 69 sacks last season. And isn't Damien Woody dinged up too?

You dont consider McNabb and greater injury risk then Kitna? wowIt's hard to argue with McNabbs monster ppg tally, but McNabb=Kitna in the durability deptartment? wow

I don't think it is that big of a surprise. Martz loves to run deep patterns with his receivers and historically his QBs absorb a lot of hits.McNabb has a much more significant injury history but until I know that Kitna isn't going to be running for his life all season I see them as equal risks.I also am not sold on Kitna's job security in general. He has not proven himself to be a consistent player in his career nor is he ever been particularly effective in the red zone and I think a bad start by the Lions could lead to his benching for Orlovsky.They are both risks but I like McNabb's proven production.

Orlovsky? He isnt even the back up. Its JT O'Sullivan. And neither back up is the future, so getting them reps isnt the issue. Stanton is on the IR, otherwise you would have said he was guy who would get reps.

No backup has been named, I think it will be Orlovsky.Either way I don't think Kitna has a hammer lock on his job like McNabb does.

Kitna has a 100% hammerlock on the Lion QB job. There is zero doubt about that. There is no chance of the backups playing this year unless by injury.

 

[D_House]

I got Kitna at 6.9 last night as the sixth QB selected (after Manning, Palmer, Brees, Bulger, and McNabb). I was happy with my selection, particularly when the guy at 6.12 let out a "doh".

 

[SCT]

The correct answer is determined by comparing two scenarios given your league's scoring and your own player projections: Add your projected points for Kitna to your projected points for the player (WR or RB?) you would expect to pick at 6.12. Compare that number to your projected points of the player you might pick at 5.01 if not Kitna plus the points of the QB you'd expect to get at 6.12. Which number is bigger?I like Kitna, too (he might have the greatest upside of any QB relative to his ADP). My similar problem is that I pick 12th Sunday and am kind of doubting he lasts until 5.12 in my QB-friendly scoring league. I'll just have to hope so 'cause I won't reach for him at 4.1. The turns are really a bad place to be when targeting certain players...

I just did this for you because I too am targeting Kitna....the numbers work out +21 projected points on the side of NOT taking Kitna...Instead you get WR Edwards/Branch and QB Young/Rivers. If you go Kitna first, you end up with Chambers/Galloway at WR. The two guys are just to give you an idea of type of WR we're talking. BTW, I follow Dodd's Perfect Draft article to the T, and Kitna is going way too early to get value based on his suggestions. He says wait to get Kitna in 6th or 7th round I believe, which isn't likely.

I find that a bit amiss. Kitna outscored Rivers by 40 last year with -1 for Int. Which is bigger then any 1 round WR dropoff will ever be. Now it does change based on your projections or if you have -2 for ints. But it just seems that there has to be a 40 point change at the QB and then a 20 point dropoff at the WR, which again seems a bit amiss. Dodds perfect draft was also written some time ago. And as I have stated elsewhere, Kitna was certainly going to climb the ranking the closer we get to the season as people see the Martz pass offense with more clarity. So following the article to a T, leads you a little bit astray when you are 3 weeks deep into the preseason. Understand his article has Vick before Kitna. Kitna was good enough though, that Dodds had him targeted as his QB choice.

I understand what you're getting at, but all I can say that the actual numbers I used were from the latest ADP and Projections from FBG.com The actual article i only mentioned after crunching the numbers. Also, the version of perfect draft I used is from the site, not the mag, which is more recent and doesn't mention vick at all.Just FYI

 

[Keepers]

Ya, he's a reach at 5:1.His ADP is not that high and even if he does produce enough this year to justify you picking him at 5:1, that's not the point.The point is....if you make a habit or a point of drafting players ahead of where you COULD get them in a draft, in the end you'll have a losing team.If someone in your league reaches for him.......then so be it. It's certainly possible that he doesn't have the year you and everyone expects or saw last year and that guy did you a favor.I happen to like Kitna this year but won't reach for him. Every player won't be reached for in your draft and SOMEONE will fall to you at some point that will represent value.

Agree in principal but don't agree that "reaches" should never be made. Every draft is different and good owners adjust to the trends and predict how those trends are playing out and when runs at a postiion are going to occur. If you have a number of QBs ranked similarily and believe there is a significant drop off after them, you want to be on the end of the run but most importantly you don't want to miss out on it. Sounds like there is a run on QBs and the OP wants to be in on it, so even if believe that Kitna or McNabb are reaches at 5.1, realizing that you are going to be left out of the run if don't take one now, one of them should be taken.

 

[Chaka]

What does 5.1 mean? What QB # are you talking about? Is Kitna the #6th QB off the board in this scenario? It will be a big problem choosing between him and McNabb. I lean towards McNabb.With or without T.O. he is consistently one of the top 3 fantasy QBs in PPG and I don't consider him a greater injury risk behind his pro bowl line than Kitna who already has back spasms and plays behind the same line that gave up 69 sacks last season. And isn't Damien Woody dinged up too?

You dont consider McNabb and greater injury risk then Kitna? wowIt's hard to argue with McNabbs monster ppg tally, but McNabb=Kitna in the durability deptartment? wow

I don't think it is that big of a surprise. Martz loves to run deep patterns with his receivers and historically his QBs absorb a lot of hits.McNabb has a much more significant injury history but until I know that Kitna isn't going to be running for his life all season I see them as equal risks.I also am not sold on Kitna's job security in general. He has not proven himself to be a consistent player in his career nor is he ever been particularly effective in the red zone and I think a bad start by the Lions could lead to his benching for Orlovsky.They are both risks but I like McNabb's proven production.

Orlovsky? He isnt even the back up. Its JT O'Sullivan. And neither back up is the future, so getting them reps isnt the issue. Stanton is on the IR, otherwise you would have said he was guy who would get reps.

No backup has been named, I think it will be Orlovsky.Either way I don't think Kitna has a hammer lock on his job like McNabb does.

Kitna has a 100% hammerlock on the Lion QB job. There is zero doubt about that. There is no chance of the backups playing this year unless by injury.

And the 65+ sacls Kitna absorbed last year should make me feel confident he will play 16 games this year, why?Martz's schemes seem to be fantasy gold but 1) his QBs always absorb a lot of hits while WRs get open on deep routes & 2) his QBs seldom throw tons of TDs (Bulger's career high is 24 which he got with Linehan last year) and no OC runs the ball a higher percentage of the time inside the 5 than Mad Mike Martz.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

What does 5.1 mean? What QB # are you talking about? Is Kitna the #6th QB off the board in this scenario? It will be a big problem choosing between him and McNabb. I lean towards McNabb.

With or without T.O. he is consistently one of the top 3 fantasy QBs in PPG and I don't consider him a greater injury risk behind his pro bowl line than Kitna who already has back spasms and plays behind the same line that gave up 69 sacks last season. And isn't Damien Woody dinged up too?

You dont consider McNabb and greater injury risk then Kitna? wowIt's hard to argue with McNabbs monster ppg tally, but McNabb=Kitna in the durability deptartment? wow

I don't think it is that big of a surprise. Martz loves to run deep patterns with his receivers and historically his QBs absorb a lot of hits.McNabb has a much more significant injury history but until I know that Kitna isn't going to be running for his life all season I see them as equal risks.

I also am not sold on Kitna's job security in general. He has not proven himself to be a consistent player in his career nor is he ever been particularly effective in the red zone and I think a bad start by the Lions could lead to his benching for Orlovsky.

They are both risks but I like McNabb's proven production.

Orlovsky? He isnt even the back up. Its JT O'Sullivan. And neither back up is the future, so getting them reps isnt the issue.

Stanton is on the IR, otherwise you would have said he was guy who would get reps.

No backup has been named, I think it will be Orlovsky.Either way I don't think Kitna has a hammer lock on his job like McNabb does.

Kitna has a 100% hammerlock on the Lion QB job. There is zero doubt about that. There is no chance of the backups playing this year unless by injury.

And the 65+ sacls Kitna absorbed last year should make me feel confident he will play 16 games this year, why?Martz's schemes seem to be fantasy gold but 1) his QBs always absorb a lot of hits while WRs get open on deep routes & 2) his QBs seldom throw tons of TDs (Bulger's career high is 24 which he got with Linehan last year) and no OC runs the ball a higher percentage of the time inside the 5 than Mad Mike Martz.

You missed the "unless by injury" part. And that is the only way Kitna isn't playing this year.