Barry Sanders- 5'8", 203 and 4.37 40 yard dash
Emmitt Smith- 5'10", 216, 4.60 40 yard dash
It's not always about measurables. Some times it takes putting on the pads to find the talent. -Tom Brady
Not sure what that has to do with what I posted above. Of course it's not always about measurables. There are always exceptions.
That said, do you not find it INCREDIBLY curious that there is only one instance of a RB logging 200+ carries fitting the simple criteria of < 200 lbs and < 4.4 speed pretty much since these measurements have been taken? Is Richardson that amazing that you think HE is the one that's going to buck an INCREDIBLY STRONG trend. I mean, we're not talking about some 1st round pick here that we're looking to defy the odds (looking at you, Tavon). We're talking about an UDFA here. Yes, yes, I know, look at guys like Foster and Morris and Brady and Colston, etc.
But we're not talking about a somewhat general finding here. Out of hundreds of RBs over the last 15+ years, only ONE has ever fit these 2 simple criteria. So I have no idea why listing Barry Sanders and Emmitt (both of whom are either > 200 lbs or faster than 4.4, I might add) has to do with Richardson and his prospects.
I'll also repeat that I am NOT saying that Richardson can't be successful or have some decent games. But I am saying that the likelihood of him doing that with 200+ carries over the course of a season is essentially zero. And, even if he were to become the 2nd running back EVER to do so, the likelihood of him sustaining that > 1 season is even that much smaller.
Sorry, those kinds of odds are not the kind of odds I invest in at all. He could be a great flex play at times and might even put up a couple big weeks here and there. And sure, there's value in that. But that's about it. And there are people expecting more and they are going to be disappointed.
If you'd like, go ahead and find me another guy that has done it. I'll wait and listen. We actually found a list of guys who were under 200 lbs and ran slower than 4.4. They either 1) sucked or 2) added weight and got over 200 lbs. Kind of odd, huh?
The information is there. Do with it what you will. If your eyes tell you something different, go for it. Just understand that you're going against some MAJOR odds stacked against you and your evaluation. I have nothing personal against the guy. I'd actually love it if he succeeded and bucked the trend. And I actually enjoy watching him run. But in terms of buying as a fantasy stock...no thank you.